Republic of the Philippines

DEPARTMENT OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY

Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and
Astronomical Services Administration
(PAGASA) ``
CLIMPS-01 rev.0/15-08-2023

ENSO ADVISORY
El Niño Advisory No. 11 / La Niña Watch

El Niño in the tropical Pacific Ocean continues to weaken but impacts such as hotter and
drier conditions still persist. A transition to ENSO-neutral conditions is anticipated during
the April-May-June (AMJ) to May-June-July (MJJ) 2024 season. However, a likelihood
for La Niña to develop during the June-July-August (JJA) 2024 season has a 60% chance.
With these conditions, the PAGASA ENSO Alert and Warning System still remains at El
Niño Advisory / La Niña Watch.

Assessment in April 2024

The easterlies, localized thunderstorms, the ridge of high-pressure area (HPA), trough of
low-pressure area (LPA) and the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) were the weather
systems that influenced the country’s climate in April. In addition, no tropical cyclone
developed or entered in the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR).

Rainfall assessment for the month showed that generally way below to below normal
rainfall conditions were experienced throughout the country except for the provinces of
Bulacan and Sarangani, where near normal rainfall conditions were observed.

Assessment of rainfall data in April showed that twenty-three (23) provinces in Luzon,
fourteen (14) provinces in the Visayas, and nine (9) provinces in Mindanao experienced
meteorological drought; nineteen (19) provinces were under dry spells, and nine (9)
provinces experienced dry conditions. For a complete list of these provinces, please refer
to the Drought/Dry Spell Assessment Maps and Tables.

The National Disaster Risk and Reduction Management Council (NDRRMC) Situational
Report No. 43 for the Update on the Effects of El Niño dated 6 May 2024 stated that one
(1) region-wide, seven (7) province-wide and 36 cities/municipalities, totaling 208
cities/municipalities in Regions I, CAR, MIMAROPA, VI, VII, VIII, IX, X, XII, and BARMM
were declared under the State of Calamity. Estimated cost of damage and losses to
agriculture amounted to Php 5.9 Billion (Source: DA Bulletin No. 9).

Mean surface air temperatures were generally slightly above to way above average over
most parts of the country. The actual temperature ranges were as follows: mountainous
areas of Luzon: 11.4°C – 28.6°C; rest of Luzon: 20.2°C – 40.3°C; Visayas: 22.5°C –
37.6°C; mountainous areas of Mindanao: 14.5°C – 37.5°C; rest of Mindanao: 22.5°C –
37.4°C and 22.6°C – 38.8°C in Metro Manila.

Furthermore, nine (9) synoptic stations surpassed their respective historical maximum air
temperatures: Clark, Pampanga (39.1°C/ Apr 29), San Jose, Occidental Mindoro (39.2°C/
Apr 22), Casiguran (38.1°C/ Apr 24), Sangley Point, Cavite (38.7°C/ Apr 25), Maasin,
Leyte (36.5°C/ Apr 25), Malaybalay, Bukidnon (37.5°C/ Apr 25), NAIA, Pasay City
(38.8°C/ Apr 27), Science Garden, Quezon City (38.2°C/ Apr 27) and Catbalogan
(37.6°C/ Apr 30).

Outlook for May 2024

The weather systems that may affect the country for the month are the easterlies, HPAs,
localized thunderstorms, ITCZ, LPAs, and one (1) or two (2) tropical cyclones that may
develop inside / enter the PAR. These systems may contribute to the warmer and drier
“tracking the sky…helping the country”

Science Garden Compound, Senator Miriam P. Defensor-Santiago Ave., Tel. No. (02) 8284-08-00 loc. 4921 or 4920
Brgy. Central, Quezon City, Metro Manila, Philippines 1100 Website: http://bagong.pagasa.dost.gov.ph
 Republic of the Philippines
DEPARTMENT OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and
Astronomical Services Administration
(PAGASA) ``
CLIMPS-01 rev.0/15-08-2023

climate conditions during the month. Besides, the transition towards the Southwest (SW)
monsoon may happen during the month.

The rainfall forecast for the month suggests that below-normal rainfall conditions will likely
be experienced in most parts of Luzon and Visayas, while near-normal conditions are
expected mostly in Mindanao and the northern portions of Luzon. However, the
probability for below-normal conditions are still high.

Likewise, twenty-three (23) provinces in Luzon, fifteen (15) provinces in the Visayas, and
nine (9) provinces in Mindanao are potential for meteorological drought conditions; seven
(7) provinces are potential for dry spell and eight (8) provinces are potential for dry
conditions. For the complete list of these provinces, please refer to the Drought/Dry Spell
Outlook.

Generally, slightly below-average to warmer-than-average surface air temperatures are

expected throughout the country this month. The forecast temperature ranges are as
follows: 23.0⁰C to 38.3⁰C over Metro Manila; 15.2⁰C to 29.0⁰C in the mountainous areas
of Luzon; 19.0⁰C to 40.8⁰C for the rest of Luzon; 21.4⁰C to 37.5⁰C in the Visayas; 16.1⁰C
to 36.3⁰C over the mountainous areas of Mindanao and 21.4⁰C to 38.3⁰C over the rest of
Mindanao.

PAGASA will continue to closely monitor the waning El Niño and the developing La Niña
and its effect on the local climate. Moreover, areas potential for meteorological dry spells
and drought will still be updated and disseminated accordingly. Consequently, all
government agencies concerned and the general public are encouraged to take
precautionary measures to mitigate the adverse impacts of these phenomena. For more
information, please contact the DOST-PAGASA Climatology and Agrometeorology
Division (CAD) at 8284-0800, extension 4920 or 4921.

Original Signed:

NATHANIEL T. SERVANDO, Ph.D.

Administrator

Date Issued: 06 May 2024

“tracking the sky…helping the country”

Science Garden Compound, Senator Miriam P. Defensor-Santiago Ave., Tel. No. (02) 8284-08-00 loc. 4921 or 4920
Brgy. Central, Quezon City, Metro Manila, Philippines 1100 Website: http://bagong.pagasa.dost.gov.ph