BRIEF ANALYSIS OF CSDS POST-POLL SURVEY IN MAHARASHTRA

The analysis here is based on a Post Poll survey conducted by Lokniti in Maharashtra between
October 15 and 17, 2014 in 35 Assembly constituencies.

Sample size - 1542.

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LEADERSHIP WAS NOT AN IMPORTANT ISSUE IN MAHARASHTRA

On being asked who they would like to see as the next chief minister of Maharashtra, 11 percent
of the respondents took Uddhav Thackeray’s name and 10 percent said Devendra Fadnavis.
What is more significant however is that 43 percent of the respondents did not take any name
indicating that leadership was not an important issue in this Assembly election in Maharashtra.
The post-poll survey further reveals that a large proportion of these voters who seemed to be
uninterested in the issue of leadership ended up voting for the BJP (31 percent).

Chief Minister %
Preference

(open ended question)

Uddhav Thackeray 11

Devendra Fadnavis 10

Prithviraj Chavan 8

Ajit Pawar 8

Pankaja Munde 4

Raj Thackeray 3

Nitin Gadkari 3

Sharad Pawar 3

Others 7

Can’t say/No answer 43

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LOCAL ISSUES WERE MORE IMPORTANT

When people were asked about what mattered to them more during the election – leadership or
local issues, 21 percent opted for the former, while 35 percent for the latter.

While voting in the assembly election %

Local issues were important to me than Leadership 35

Leadership was more important to me than Local 21

issues.

Both Local issues and Leadership were important 14

to me

Neither Local issues nor Leadership important to 8

me

No opinion 22

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HIGH DISSATISFACTION WITH CONG-NCP GOVT BUT LOWER THAN MARCH 2014

Although there was high dissatisfaction among voters with the Congress-NCP government in
Maharashtra, when we compare it with previous surveys conducted by CSDS in the state there
was a slight improvement. This perhaps explains the somewhat improved performance of both
Congress and NCP in the Assembly election as compared to the drubbing they received in the
Lok Sabha election.

Performance of Jan Mar Oct

Cong-NCP govt. 201 2014 2014

4

Fully satisfied 9 10 13

Fully dissatisfied 36 35 28

Source: CSDS Surveys in Maharashtra

Sample Size - Jan 2014 – 1224; Mar 2014 – 1662; Oct 2014 – 1542.
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A ‘CORRUPT’ GOVERNMENT

While nearly three-fourths of the respondents perceived the Congress-NCP government to be

corrupt, the proportion of those saying that it is ‘Very Corrupt’ came down as compared to the
surveys conducted right before the Lok Sabha election.

Cong-NCP govt. Jan Mar Oct

was… 2014 2014 2014

Very corrupt 52 46 36

Somewhat 33 31 37

Not corrupt 3 7 7

Can’t say 12 17 20

Sample Size - Jan 2014 – 1224; Mar 2014 – 1662; Oct 2014 – 1542.

STRONG SUPPORT FOR SEPARATE VIDARBHA STATE IN VIDARBHA REGION

The post poll survey found strong support in the Vidarbha region for the idea of a separate
Vidarbha state. Nearly two thirds of the respondents in the region supported the creation of a
separate state. In the rest of Maharashtra, the sentiment against the creation of a Vidarbha state
is nearly as strong with 53 percent opposing the idea of a separate Vidarbha state.
‘A separate Vidarbha state Vidarbha Rest of Among
should be carved out of Maharashtr BJP+ voters
region
Maharashtra’ a in Vidarbha
region

Agree fully with statement 51 10 65

Agree somewhat with 12 8 7

statement

Disagree somewhat with 10 15 2

statement

Disagree fully with statement 10 38 9

No opinion 18 29 17

Sample size for Vidarbha region is 366.

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RULING PARTY ADVANTAGE FOR BJP

The BJP seems to have benefitted from the fact that it is the ruling party at the centre. Six out of
ten respondents were of the opinion that for the all round development of the state the ruling
party at the centre and the state should be the same.

‘For all round development of the %

state the ruling party at the centre
and the state should be the same’

Agree fully with statement 41

Agree somewhat with statement 18

Disagree somewhat with 9

statement

Disagree fully with statement 10

No opinion 22
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WHO’S TO BLAME FOR SENA-BJP BREAK-UP?

On the question of who is responsible for the break up of the Shiv Sena-BJP alliance, 29% of the
respondents blamed the BJP and 20% blamed the Shiv Sena. While Sena voters clearly blamed
the BJP and its leadership for the break up of the alliance, there was a mixed opinion among BJP
voters.

All Among Among

BJP+ Shiv
voters Sena
voters

BJP/Amit Shah/Narendra Modi 29 14 51

Shiv Sena/Uddhav Thackeray 20 27 3

Both parties equally to blame 24 37 22

Neither to blame 2 1 2

No opinion 26 22 23

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WHO’S TO BLAME FOR CONG-NCP BREAK-UP?

Much of the blame for the break up of the Congress-NCP alliance was put on the NCP. 26
percent of the respondents held the NCP responsible for the alliance coming apart whereas 18
percent blamed Congress.
 All Among Among
Congres NCP
s voters voters

NCP/Pawars to blame 26 38 14

Congress/Chavan to blame 18 14 33

Both parties equally to 30 17 30

blame

Neither to blame 1 1 2

No opinion 25 30 21

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UPHOLDING SHIVAJI’S LEGACY WAS NOT A BIG ISSUE FOR VOTERS

Upholding the legacy of Shivaji does not seem to have been an election issue. While most
respondents (37 percent) were of the opinion that Shiv Sena was best suited to protect Shivaji’s
legacy, however when it came to voting only one-third of them ended up voting for the Shiv
Sena. Also interesting is the finding that while BJP used Shivaji’s name in its election campaign,
not many voters saw it as the party that will protect his legacy.

Shivaji’ All Voted for…

s
legacy
will be

best
protect
ed
by…

BJP+ Sena

BJP 11 69 7

Shiv 37 24 35
Sena
 NCP MORE CORRUPT OR CONGRESS?

Cong more corrupt than 15

NCP

NCP more corrupt than Cong 20

Both parties equally corrupt 39

Neither party corrupt 6

Can’t say 21

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SHIV SENA MORE COMMUNAL OR BJP?

When respondents were asked about which was a more communal party between the Shiv Sena
and the BJP, the former was perceived to be a slightly more communal than the latter. However,
interestingly the BJP was seen as being more communal than the Sena among Muslims.

All Among
Muslims

BJP more communal than SS 15 25

SS more communal than BJP 18 18

Both parties equally 23 21

communal

Neither party communal 15 11

Can’t say 29 26
 MOST BJP AND SENA VOTERS WANTED THE TWO PARTIES TO COME TOGETHER IN
THE EVENT OF A HUNG ASSEMBLY

When respondents were asked to give their preference for a coalition government in case of a
hung assembly, most (27 percent) said they would like to see a BJP-Shiv Sena government
together. 40 percent of those who voted for the BJP and Shiv Sena supported such an alliance.

Coalition govt All Among Among Among

in BJP+ NCP
SS
case of a hung voters voters
voters
Assembly…

BJP-SS 27 40 40 11

BJP-NCP 4 3 1 13

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