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MOST IMMEDIATE

F2.(E)/2024-NDMA (MW/Weather-Outlook)
Government of Pakistan
Prime Minister’s Office
National Disaster Management Authority (HQ)
Main Murree Road, Near ITP Office, Islamabad
Dated: 22 June 2024
Subject: Monsoon Weather Projection - July 2024
Reference: a. NDMA National Disaster Response Plan 2024/25.
b. NDMA National Monsoon Contingency Plan 2024.

1. NDMA National Emergencies Operation Centre (NEOC) technical analysis of weather

projections for Monsoon Season for the month of July 2024 has been prepared after in-depth
analysis of multiple weather models; details are covered in ensuing paras. Detailed
preparatory and anticipatory actions for response by individuals, communities and all DM
responders to heavy rains, torrential rains, flooding etc have already been enumerated in NDMA
National Disaster Response Plan 2024/25 and NDMA National Monsoon Contingency Plan
2024. Some of the actions are being covered in this advisory for due emphasis.
2. Rains Projections. Province-wise details of projected weather conditions for the entire
month of July 2024 on weekly basis are as under:-
a. Balochistan
(1) 1st Week (approx 15-35 mm rainfall in areas). Monsoon rains likely to start
in Eastern Balochistan i.e. Zhob, Barkhan, Loralai Divisions with scattered
rains in Sibbi & Naseerabad Divisions; isolated rains in Kalat & Quetta
Division and heavier rains in
Lasbela. Makran &
Rakshan divisions are
expected to receive less
rains.
(2) 2nd Week (approx 25-50 mm
rainfall in areas). Heavy
monsoon rains expected in
parts of Loralai & Zhob
Divisions with flood
inducing rains in Suleman
& Kirthar Ranges. Sibbi &
Naseerabad Divisions expected to receive moderate to heavy rains with
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isolated rains in Kalat & Quetta Divisions. Scattered rains are expected in
Makran Division and isolated rains in Rakhshan Division.
(3) 3rd Week (approx 15-25 mm rainfall in areas). Monsoon system will
remain weak in most parts with light rains in Zhob, Barkhan & Khuzdar
regions. There are less chances of rains in Makran, Kalat, Quetta & Rakshan
Divisions.
(4) 4th Week (approx 25-50 mm rainfall in areas). Heavy rains in Kalat,
Makran, Quetta, Naseerabad, Zhob & Sibbi Divisions.
b. Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
(1) 1st Week (approx 15-50 mm rainfall in areas). Monsoon is expected in all
parts with heavy rains in
Malakand, Hazara & Mardan
Division, moderate to heavy
rains in Peshawar, Kohat,
Bannu & DI Khan areas.
(2) 2nd Week (approx. 25-35 mm
rainfall in areas). Monsoon
will remain active in
Southern KP including
Bannu & DI Khan Divisions
with light rains in Peshawar
& Kohat Divisions and lesser
intensity in Mardan, Malakand & Hazara Division.
(3) 3rd Week (approx 15-25 mm rainfall in areas). Overall Monsoon will
remain weak and isolated rains in Malakand & Hazara Divisions.
(4) 4th Week (approx 50-70 mm rainfall in areas). An active phase of
monsoon is expected with heavy to very heavy rains in Malakand, Hazara &
Mardan Divisions and moderate to heavy rains in Peshawar, Kohat, Bannu &
DI Khan Divisions.
c. Punjab & ICT
(1) 1st Week (approx 15-50 mm rainfall in areas). Heavy rain spells are
anticipated in ICT, Rawalpindi, Lahore, Sargodha, Faisalabad & Gujranwala
Divisions. While intensity and duration of rains is expected to be
comparatively lower in Multan, DG Khan & Bahawalpur Divisions.
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(2) 2nd Week (approx 25-35 mm rainfall in areas). Monsoon activity will
persist in ICT, Rawalpindi, Gujranwala, Sargodha, Lahore & Faisalabad
Divisions. Isolated rains /
showers are expected in
Multan, DG Khan &
Bahawalpur Divisions.
(3) 3rd Week (approx 15-25 mm
rainfall in areas). Monsoon
activity will remain significant
in ICT & Upper Punjab, while
there will be noticeable
decrease in rains activity in
Central & South Punjab as
monsoon enters a weak
phase.
(4) 4th Week (approx 50-70 mm rainfall in areas). Heavy rains may lead to
flooding in ICT, Rawalpindi, Lahore, Sargodha, Gujranwala & Faisalabad
Divisions. Hill torrents in DG Khan Division are expected. Moderate to heavy
rains are forecasted for the Sahiwal, Multan & Bahawalpur Divisions.
d. Sindh
(1) 1st Week (approx 30-50 mm rainfall in areas). Highest intensity rains in
Mirpurkhas Division. Heavy
rains are expected in
Karachi, Hyderabad &
Nawabshah Divisions.
Isolated to scattered rains
expected in Larkana &
Sukkur regions.
(2) 2nd Week (approx 35-75 mm
rainfall in areas). Intense
monsoon activity is expected
across all parts of Sindh.
Heavy to very heavy rains
are predicted in Mirpurkhas, Karachi, Hyderabad, Larkana, Sukkur and
Nawabshah Divisions.
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(3) 3rd Week (approx 25-35 mm rainfall in areas). Monsoon dynamics likely
to weaken. Rains will be primarily concentrated in Mirpurkhas & Nawabshah
Divisions, with isolated rains in Karachi, Hyderabad, Larkana & Sukkur
Divisions.
(4) 4th Week (approx 45-75 mm rainfall in areas). Monsoon will remain
active. Heavy to very heavy rains spells expected in Karachi & Mirpurkhas
Divisions. Scattered rains spells anticipated in Nawabshah, Hyderabad,
Sukkur & Larkana Divisions.
e. Gilgit Baltistan
(1) 1st Week (approx 15-30 mm
rainfall in areas). Light to
moderate rains expected in
all valleys including Gilgit,
Skardu, Ghanche, Ghizer,
Astore & Gojal.
(2) 2nd Week (approx 15-30 mm
rainfall in areas). Light to
moderate rains expected in
all valleys including Gilgit,
Skardu, Ghanche, Ghizer,
Astor & Gojal.
(3) 3rd Week (approx 10-25 mm rainfall in areas). Light to occasionally
moderate showers in Gilgit, Skardu, Ghanche, Ghizer, Astor & Gojal.
(4) 4th Week (approx 25-40 mm rainfall in areas). Low to moderate rains
expected in all valleys. Astore region will experience heavy to very heavy
rains.
f. AJ&K
(1) 1st Week (approx 30-55 mm
rainfall in areas). Monsoon
rains expected across all parts.
Heavy rains expected in
Muzaffarabad, Poonch, Kotli &
Mirpur regions, with moderate to
heavy rains expected in Neelum
region.
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(2) 2nd Week (approx 35-50 mm rainfall in areas). Monsoon rains expected in
all parts. Heavy rains expected in Muzaffarabad, Poonch, Kotli & Mirpur
regions with moderate to heavy in Neelum.
(3) 3rd Week (approx 15-30 mm rainfall in areas). Monsoon expected to
remain subdued, with some rains in Muzaffarabad & Poonch regions, and
isolated rains in Kotli, Mirpur & Neelum regions.
(4) 4th Week (approx 40-70 mm rainfall in areas). Heavy to very heavy rains
across complete AJ&K, potentially leading to severe flooding in nullahs and
rivers.
3. Perceived Impacts. In light of the projected weather conditions, following impacts are
expected in aforesaid regions of Pakistan: -
a. Moderate to Very Heavy rains may increase the water flows in local nullahs /
streams / rivers causing riverine / flash flooding in vulnerable areas.
b. Moderate to Very Heavy rains may trigger Hill Torrents in vulnerable areas of
DI Khan, DG Khan, Rajanpur and along Suleman and Kirthar Ranges.
c. Moderate to Very Heavy Rains may cause urban flooding in vulnerable urban
areas across the country.
d. Moderate to Very Heavy Rains may trigger landslides in the vulnerable areas of
Murree, Galiyat, AJ&K, Gilgit Baltistan and hilly / mountainous areas of
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan.
e. In light of increased temperatures and forecasted rains spell in Gilgit Baltistan and
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, the flows of rivers and streams are expected to
increase and there is a higher probability of GLOF event triggering in vulnerable /
at-risk valleys.
f. Dust storm / wind-thunderstorms & heavy falls may cause damage to loose
structures such as electrical poles, solar panels, hoardings, tall trees and under
construction buildings.
4. Pre-cautionary Measures. All concerned stakeholders / general public are advised to
undertake measures to mitigate adverse effects of monsoon rains. Following measures must
be ensured by all: -
a. PMD / FFD / FFC / PCIW / SUPARCO
(1) Proactive monitoring of Eastern Rivers and sharing of 12 hourly water
flows data with all stakeholders.
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(2) Ensure implementation of elaborate coordination mechanism for

preparedness and mitigation through management/ regulation of water
reservoirs/ barrages/ headworks and irrigation canals.
b. Provincial Irrigation Departments. Take necessary measures to manage
waterflow and mitigate flood risks, through following: -
(1) Implementing effective regulation strategies at headworks / barrages to
optimize the discharge of excess water through irrigation channels.
(2) Proactive monitoring / maintenance / repairs of canal systems to
enhance their capacity to handle increased flows.
(3) Undertake prompt repairs of any breaches / breaks in flood protective
works.
c. PDMAs / GBDMA / SDMA and Respective DDMAs
(1) Conduct extensive public awareness campaigns through multiple
channels, including TV / broadcast / social / print media etc., to ensure that
vulnerable communities are well-informed about the anticipated flood
situation and necessary precautions.
(2) Enhance deployment of required machinery, equipment, emergency
supplies and personnel in at-risk areas, considering on ground situation.
(3) Maintain sufficient stocks of essential supplies, including food, clean water,
medical provisions, and sanitation supplies in case further emergent needs.
(4) Strategically position flood fighting equipment in areas prone to flooding,
ensuring their availability for immediate deployment.
d. DM Responders (Local Administrations / Rescue 1122 / LEAs / Line Departments
/ Armed Forces)
(1) Ensure timely cleaning / de-silting & maintenance of sewerage lines,
storm water drains and nullahs.
(2) Ensure availability / functionality of all essential flood response equipment in
flood-prone areas.
(3) Ensure full staffing / availability of trained emergency response personnel
and designate their duties / areas of deployment in case of emergency.
(4) Conduct thorough reconnaissance of vulnerable locations, identifying
critical infrastructure / communities that may require additional support and
protection.
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(5) Inform and sensitize residents of low-lying areas / at-risk communities of

anticipated flood conditions, potential impacts, evacuation procedures and
precautionary measures.
(6) Establish temporary shelters in safe locations for displaced individuals and
ensure these are equipped with necessary supplies (food, clean drinking water,
medical supplies and sanitation facilities).
(7) Ensure the availability of trained medical staff and ambulances in
strategic locations to provide immediate medical assistance to those
affected by floods.
e. NHA / FWO and Pak Railways. Continuously monitor the situation and
implement all necessary safety measures to ensure the functionality of
communication arteries (roads / railway lines / bridges).
f. NH&MP
(1) Inform travelers / tourists in timely manner regarding anticipated weather /
flood conditions, potential hazards, precautionary measures and
recommended alternative routes to regulate their travel and ensuring safety.
(2) Provide necessary assistance and support to travelers / tourists affected by
flood situation, including facilitating evacuations if required.
(3) Coordinate with Law Enforcement Agencies & Local Administrations to
manage and redirect traffic in affected areas to prevent congestion and
facilitate emergency response efforts.
g. MO / Engrs Dte
(1) Undertake survey of inundated areas and record keeping of flood limits for
verification of data.
(2) Serviceability of flood fighting equipment for sustainability of response.
(3) Coordinate with Rescue 1122 / DDMAs to ensure general public stays away
from vulnerable / flooded areas.
h. Proactively maintain nullahs / stormwater drains to ensure their proper
functioning and prevent blockages that may exacerbate flooding.
i. Ensure immediate stocking of basic commodities, including paramedics and
medicine, especially in regions that are likely to get cut-off during flooding.
j. Strengthen coordination among all relevant departments and agencies to
facilitate the timely sharing of information and resources during emergency
situations.
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k. Establish reliable communication channels with local communities to provide

timely updates, instructions, and emergency contact information.
l. Ensure widespread circulation of alerts and advisories, especially in local
languages, to raise awareness and sensitize travelers/ tourists and local
communities in at-risk / vulnerable areas.
m. Ensure round-the-clock monitoring of the situation through EOCs with regular
feedback to PEOCs and NEOC.
n. Share regular / frequent updates with NDMA in case of any eventuality.
5. Press Information Department Only. With the request to ensure wider circulation
and public awareness.
6. Forwarded for information and necessary action, please.

(Hammad Sadiq Rana)

Director (Response) NDMA

(Distribution List Attached)

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DISTRIBUTION LIST
To: Secretary, Ministry of Interior, Islamabad
Secretary, Ministry of National Health Services, Regulation & Coordination, Islamabad
Secretary, Ministry of Communications, Islamabad
Secretary, Ministry of Water Resources, Islamabad
Secretary, Ministry of Information & Broadcasting, Islamabad
Secretary, Ministry of Climate Change, Islamabad
Secretary, Ministry of National Food Security & Research, Islamabad
Secretary, Ministry of Energy, Islamabad
Secretary, Aviation Division, Islamabad
Chief Secretary, Government of Balochistan, Quetta
Chief Secretary, Government of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Peshawar
Chief Secretary, Government of Punjab, Lahore
Chief Secretary, Government of Sindh, Karachi
Chief Secretary, Government of Gilgit Baltistan, Gilgit
Chief Secretary, State of AJ&K, Muzaffarabad
Director General, Pakistan Meteorological Department, Islamabad
Director General, Pakistan Civil Aviation Authority, Karachi
Director General, National Emergency Health Services, Islamabad
Executive Director, National Institute of Health, Islamabad
Chairman, Federal Flood Commission (FFC), Islamabad
Chairman, National Highway Authority (NHA), Islamabad
Chairman, WAPDA, Lahore
General Manager, Tarbela Dam Authority
General Manager, Mangla Dam Authority
Director General, PDMA Balochistan, Quetta
Director General, PDMA Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Peshawar
Director General, PDMA Punjab, Lahore
Director General, PDMA Sindh, Karachi
Director General, GBDMA, Gilgit
Director General, SDMA, Muzaffarabad
Director General, Rescue 1122 Balochistan, Quetta
Director General, Rescue 1122 Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Peshawar
Director General, Rescue 1122 Punjab, Lahore
Director General, Rescue 1122 Sindh, Karachi
Director General, Rescue 1122 Gilgit Baltistan, Gilgit
Director General, Rescue 1122 State of AJ&K, Muzaffarabad
Chief Commissioner, Islamabad Capital Territory
Deputy Commissioner, Islamabad Capital Territory
Principal Information Officer, Press Information Department, Islamabad
Headquarters, Frontier Works Organization (FWO), Rawalpindi
Headquarters, National Highways & Motorway Police, Islamabad
Headquarters, National Electric Power Regulatory Authority, Islamabad
Headquarters, National Transmission & Dispatch Company (NTDC), Islamabad
Headquarters, Pakistan Railways, Lahore
Cc: Secretary to Prime Minister, Prime Minister’s Office, Islamabad
Secretary, Cabinet Division, Islamabad
Joint Crises Management Cell, Joint Staff Headquarters, Chaklala Cantt
Military Operations Directorate (MO-4), General Headquarters, Rawalpindi Cantt
ACNS (Operations), Naval Headquarters, Islamabad
ACAS (Operations), Air Headquarters, Islamabad
Headquarters, Pakistan Maritime Security Agency (PMSA), Karachi
Headquarters, Pakistan Coast Guards (PCG), Karach