2.

2 Axioms of Probability
2.3 Computing Probabilities Using Counting Methods

EEE251 Probability Methods in Engineering

Lecture 2, Bakhtiar Ali

Department of Electrical Engineering.

COMSATS Institute of Information & Technology, Islamabad

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 2.2 Axioms of Probability
2.3 Computing Probabilities Using Counting Methods

2.2 Axioms of Probability

Probabilities are numbers assigned to events that indicate how
likely it is that the events will occur when an experiment is
performed.
A probability law for a random experiment is a rule that
assigns probabilities to the events of the experiment that
belong to the event class F.
Let E be a random experiment with sample space S and event
class F . A probability law for the experiment E is a rule that
assigns to each event A ⊂ F a number P[A], called the
probability of A, that satisfies the following axioms:
1 0 ≤ P [A] ≤ 1.
2 P [S]T= 1. S
3 if A B = φ, then P [A B] = P [A] + P [B]. T
4 if A1 , A2 , . . . is a sequence
S∞ of events
P∞such that Ai Aj = φ
for all i 6= j, then P [ k=1 Ak ] = k=1 P [Ak ].
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 2.2 Axioms of Probability
2.3 Computing Probabilities Using Counting Methods

2.2 Axioms of Probability

Corollaries
P [Ac ] = 1 − P [A].
P [A] ≤ 1.
P [φ = 0].
P [S]S= 1. T
P [A B] = P [A] + P [B] − P [A B].
if A ⊂ B, then P [A] ≤ P [B].

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 2.2 Axioms of Probability
2.3 Computing Probabilities Using Counting Methods

Example 1.
A die is tossed and the number of dots facing up is noted. Find
the probability of the elementary events under the assumption that
all faces of the die are equally likely to be facing up after a toss
{P = 16 }.
Find the probability of the events:
A={more than 3 dots}; B={odd number of dots}
Find Probability of A ∪ B, A ∩ B, Ac .

P [A] = 12 , P [B] = 1
2
P [A ∪ B] = 56 , P [A ∩ B] = 61 , P [Ac ] = 1
2

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 2.2 Axioms of Probability
2.3 Computing Probabilities Using Counting Methods

Example 2.
A number x is selected at random in the interval [−1, 2]. Let the
events A = {x < 0}, B = {|x − 0.5| < 0.5} and C = {x > 0.75}.
Find the probabilities of A, B, A ∪ B, and A ∪ C.

1
P [A] = 3
1
P [B] = 3
2
P [A ∪ B] = 3
3
P [A ∪ C] = 4
Find the probabilities of A ∪ B, A ∪ C and A ∪ B ∪ C first, by
directly evaluating the sets and then their probabilities, and
second, by using the appropriate axioms or corollaries.

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 2.3.1 Sampling with Replacement and with Ordering
2.3.2 Sampling without Replacement and with Ordering
2.2 Axioms of Probability
2.3.3 Permutations of n Distinct Objects
2.3 Computing Probabilities Using Counting Methods
2.3.4 Sampling without Replacement and without Ordering
2.3.5 Sampling with Replacement and without Ordering

2.3 Computing Probabilities Using Counting Methods

In many experiments with finite sample spaces, the outcomes

can be assumed to be equiprobable. The probability of an
event is then the ratio of the number of outcomes in the event
of interest to the total number of outcomes in the sample
space.
The calculation of probabilities reduces to counting the
number of outcomes in an event.
Suppose that a multiple-choice test has k questions and that
for question i the student must select one of ni possible
answers. What is the total number of ways of answering the
entire test?
Number of distinct ordered k-tuples = n1 .n2 . . . nk .

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 2.3.1 Sampling with Replacement and with Ordering
2.3.2 Sampling without Replacement and with Ordering
2.2 Axioms of Probability
2.3.3 Permutations of n Distinct Objects
2.3 Computing Probabilities Using Counting Methods
2.3.4 Sampling without Replacement and without Ordering
2.3.5 Sampling with Replacement and without Ordering

2.3.1 Sampling with Replacement and with Ordering

Suppose we choose k objects from a set A that has n distinct

objects, with replacement that is, after selecting an object and
noting its identity in an ordered list, the object is placed back
in the set before the next choice is made.
The experiment produces an ordered k-tuple

(x1 .x2 . . . xk ).

Number of distinct ordered k-tuples = nk .

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 2.3.1 Sampling with Replacement and with Ordering
2.3.2 Sampling without Replacement and with Ordering
2.2 Axioms of Probability
2.3.3 Permutations of n Distinct Objects
2.3 Computing Probabilities Using Counting Methods
2.3.4 Sampling without Replacement and without Ordering
2.3.5 Sampling with Replacement and without Ordering

Example 3.
An urn contains five balls numbered 1 to 5. Suppose we select two
balls from the urn with replacement. How many distinct ordered
pairs are possible? What is the probability that the two draws yield
the same number?

The number of ordered pairs is 52 = 25.

Probability that the two draws yield the same number 5/25 = 0.2

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 2.3.1 Sampling with Replacement and with Ordering
2.3.2 Sampling without Replacement and with Ordering
2.2 Axioms of Probability
2.3.3 Permutations of n Distinct Objects
2.3 Computing Probabilities Using Counting Methods
2.3.4 Sampling without Replacement and without Ordering
2.3.5 Sampling with Replacement and without Ordering

2.3.2 Sampling without Replacement and with Ordering

Suppose we choose k objects in succession without replacement

from a population A of n distinct objects.

Number of distinct ordered k-tuples are

n(n − 1)(n − 2) . . . (n − k + 1).

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 2.3.1 Sampling with Replacement and with Ordering
2.3.2 Sampling without Replacement and with Ordering
2.2 Axioms of Probability
2.3.3 Permutations of n Distinct Objects
2.3 Computing Probabilities Using Counting Methods
2.3.4 Sampling without Replacement and without Ordering
2.3.5 Sampling with Replacement and without Ordering

Example 4.
An urn contains five balls numbered 1 to 5. Suppose we select two
balls in succession without replacement. How many distinct
ordered pairs are possible? What is the probability that the first
ball has a number larger than that of the second ball?

The number of ordered pairs is 5(4) = 20.

The probability of this event is 10/20 = 1/2.

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 2.3.1 Sampling with Replacement and with Ordering
2.3.2 Sampling without Replacement and with Ordering
2.2 Axioms of Probability
2.3.3 Permutations of n Distinct Objects
2.3 Computing Probabilities Using Counting Methods
2.3.4 Sampling without Replacement and without Ordering
2.3.5 Sampling with Replacement and without Ordering

Example 5.
An urn contains five balls numbered 1, . . . , 5. Suppose we draw
three balls with replacement. What is the probability that all three
balls are different?

No of outcomes 53 = 125.
The number of these outcomes for which the three draws are
different is 5(4)(3) = 60.
Thus the probability that all three balls are different is
60/125 = 0.48.

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 2.3.1 Sampling with Replacement and with Ordering
2.3.2 Sampling without Replacement and with Ordering
2.2 Axioms of Probability
2.3.3 Permutations of n Distinct Objects
2.3 Computing Probabilities Using Counting Methods
2.3.4 Sampling without Replacement and without Ordering
2.3.5 Sampling with Replacement and without Ordering

2.3.3 Permutations of n Distinct Objects

The number of possible orderings (arrangements, permutations) of

n distinct objects is equal to the number of ordered n-tuples in
sampling without replacement.
Number of permutations of n objects
∆
n(n − 1)(n − 2) . . . (2)(1) = n!
Example 6.
Find the number of permutations of three distinct objects 1, 2, 3.

The number of permutations are 3! = 6.

The six permutations are 123 312 231 132 213 321.

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 2.3.1 Sampling with Replacement and with Ordering
2.3.2 Sampling without Replacement and with Ordering
2.2 Axioms of Probability
2.3.3 Permutations of n Distinct Objects
2.3 Computing Probabilities Using Counting Methods
2.3.4 Sampling without Replacement and without Ordering
2.3.5 Sampling with Replacement and without Ordering

2.3.4 Sampling without Replacement and without Ordering

Suppose we pick k objects from a set of n distinct objects
without replacement and that we record the result without
regard to order.
You can imagine putting each selected object into another jar,
so that when the k selections are completed we have no record
of the order in which the selection was done.
We call the resulting subset of k selected objects a
combination of size k.
There are k! possible orders in which the k objects in the
second jar could have been selected.
Thus if Ckn denotes the number of combinations of size k from
a set of size n. Then Ckn k! must be the total number of
distinct ordered samples of k objects.

Ckn k! = n(n − 1) . . . (n − k + 1)

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 2.3.1 Sampling with Replacement and with Ordering
2.3.2 Sampling without Replacement and with Ordering
2.2 Axioms of Probability
2.3.3 Permutations of n Distinct Objects
2.3 Computing Probabilities Using Counting Methods
2.3.4 Sampling without Replacement and without Ordering
2.3.5 Sampling with Replacement and without Ordering

2.3.4 Sampling without Replacement and without Ordering

The number of different combinations of size k from a set of

size n, (k ≤ n):
 
n n(n − 1) . . . (n − k + 1) n! ∆ n
Ck = = =
k! k!(n − k)! k

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 2.3.1 Sampling with Replacement and with Ordering
2.3.2 Sampling without Replacement and with Ordering
2.2 Axioms of Probability
2.3.3 Permutations of n Distinct Objects
2.3 Computing Probabilities Using Counting Methods
2.3.4 Sampling without Replacement and without Ordering
2.3.5 Sampling with Replacement and without Ordering

Example 7.
Find the number of ways of selecting two objects from
A = 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 without regard to order.

 
5 5!
= = 10
2 2!(5 − 2)!

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 2.3.1 Sampling with Replacement and with Ordering
2.3.2 Sampling without Replacement and with Ordering
2.2 Axioms of Probability
2.3.3 Permutations of n Distinct Objects
2.3 Computing Probabilities Using Counting Methods
2.3.4 Sampling without Replacement and without Ordering
2.3.5 Sampling with Replacement and without Ordering

Example 8.
Find the number of distinct permutations of k white balls and
n − k black balls

Put n tokens numbered 1 to n in an urn, where each token

represents a position in the arrangement of balls; pick a
combination of k tokens and put the k white balls in the
corresponding positions. Each combination of size k leads to a
distinct arrangement (permutation) of k white balls and n − k
black balls. Thus the number of distinct permutations of k white
balls and black balls is Ckn .

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 2.3.1 Sampling with Replacement and with Ordering
2.3.2 Sampling without Replacement and with Ordering
2.2 Axioms of Probability
2.3.3 Permutations of n Distinct Objects
2.3 Computing Probabilities Using Counting Methods
2.3.4 Sampling without Replacement and without Ordering
2.3.5 Sampling with Replacement and without Ordering

2.3.5 Sampling with Replacement and without Ordering

Suppose we pick k objects from a set of n distinct objects with

replacement and we record the result without regard to order.

Note that this form can be summarized by the sequence

XX//X/XX
 
8
The number of different arrangements is given by
3

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 2.3.1 Sampling with Replacement and with Ordering
2.3.2 Sampling without Replacement and with Ordering
2.2 Axioms of Probability
2.3.3 Permutations of n Distinct Objects
2.3 Computing Probabilities Using Counting Methods
2.3.4 Sampling without Replacement and without Ordering
2.3.5 Sampling with Replacement and without Ordering

In the general case the form will involve k xs and n−1 /s.
Thus the number of different ways of picking k objects from a
set of n distinct objects with replacement and without
ordering is given by
   
n−1+k n−1+k
=
k n−1

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 2.3.1 Sampling with Replacement and with Ordering
2.3.2 Sampling without Replacement and with Ordering
2.2 Axioms of Probability
2.3.3 Permutations of n Distinct Objects
2.3 Computing Probabilities Using Counting Methods
2.3.4 Sampling without Replacement and without Ordering
2.3.5 Sampling with Replacement and without Ordering

Sample Problems from Exercise

Example 9.
2.50. Five balls are placed at random in five buckets. What is the
probability that each bucket has a ball?

Number of ways to place 5 balls in 5 buckets, such that one ball

goes in each bucket 5 × 4 × 3 × 2 × 1 = 5!.
Total number of ways to place 5 balls in 5 buckets 55 .
Probability of one ball in each of the 5 buckets 5!/55 = 0.0384.

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 2.3.1 Sampling with Replacement and with Ordering
2.3.2 Sampling without Replacement and with Ordering
2.2 Axioms of Probability
2.3.3 Permutations of n Distinct Objects
2.3 Computing Probabilities Using Counting Methods
2.3.4 Sampling without Replacement and without Ordering
2.3.5 Sampling with Replacement and without Ordering

Sample Problems from Exercise

Example 10.
2.53. A hot dog vendor provides onions, relish, mustard, ketchup,
Dijon ketchup, and hot peppers for your hot dog. How many
variations of hot dogs are possible using one condiment? Two
condiments? None, some, or all of the condiments?
 
6
Number of ways picking one condiment out of six =6.
1
 
6
Number of ways picking two condiment out of six = 15.
2
6
 
P 6
Number of ways picking none, some or all condiment .
k=0 k
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