Thesis for the Degree of B.Sc.

Engineering

Predicting the Price of Used Bike using

Machine Learning Techniques

Submitted By

Sajib Kumar Roy

Student ID: 17CSE007

Under Supervision of

Abu Bakar Muhammad Abdullah

May 17, 2023

Department of Computer Science & Engineering

Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman Science and Technology University
Gopalganj, Bangladesh
 Thesis Approval

The thesis titled “Predicting the Price of Used Bike using Machine Learning Techniques”
submitted by ID NO: 17CSE007 has been accepted as satisfactory in partial fulfillment of the
requirement for the degree of Bachelor of Science in Computer Science and Engineering (B.Sc.
Engg.) in Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman Science and Technology University.
1. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Supervisor
Abu Bakar Muhammad Abdullah
Assistant Professor
Department of Computer Science and Engineering
BSMRSTU
2. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Chairman
Dr. Saleh Ahmed
Associate Professor and Chairman
Department of Computer Science and Engineering
BSMRSTU
3. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Examiner
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..................................................
..................................................
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Department of Computer Science and Engineering Bangabandhu

Sheikh Mujibur Rahman Science and Technology University,
Gopalganj, Bangladesh
 Statement of Originity

It is hereby declared that the contents of this thesis is original and any part it has not been
submitted elsewhere for the award if any degree or diploma.

--------------------------------------
Signature of the Supervisor
Date:

--------------------------------------
Signature of the Candidate
Date:

Department of Computer Science and Engineering Bangabandhu

Sheikh Mujibur Rahman Science and Technology University,
Gopalganj, Bangladesh
 Dedicated to My Parents
&
All of My Honorable Teachers
Table of Contents

Acknowledgment i
Abstract ii
1 Introduction 1
1.1 Introduction …….…………………………………………………………………...… 1
1.2 Motivation …….…………………………………………………………………...… 1
1.3 Objectives …….……………………………………………………………………... 3
1.4 Specific Aim ....….……………………………………………………………………... 3
2 Literature Review 5
3 Basics of Machine Learning 7
3.1 Introduction to Machine Learning …………………………………………...................7
3.1.1 Supervised Learning ………………………………………………………………..7
3.1.2 Regression …………………………………………………………………………..7
3.1.3 Feature Engineering ……………………………………….………………………8
3.1.4 Model Selection and Evaluation ……….………………………………………….9
3.1.5 Training and Testing ….…………………………………………………………...9
3.1.6 Overfitting and Regularization …………………………………………………….9
4 Methodology 10
4.1 Dataset Description ……………………………………………………………………10
4.2 Dataset Preprocessing …………………………………………………………………10
4.3 Feature Engineering …………………………………………………………………....11
4.4 Train-Test Split ………………………………………………………………………12
4.5 Model Building ………………………………………………………………………..12
5 Experimental Analysis 16
5.1 Overview …………………………………………………………………………...…..16
5.2 Tools ….…………………………………………………………………………...…..16
 5.3 Library .……………………………………………………………………………..…..16
5.4 Result ….…………………………………………………..…………………….....…..16

6 Conclusion and Future Work 18

6.1 Conclusion Remarks …………………………………………………………………....18
6.2 Future Works …………………………………………………………………………...18

Bibliography 20
Acknowledgment

In this very special moment, first and foremost I would like to express my heartiest gratitude to
the almighty God for allowing me to accomplish this B.Sc. study successfully. Then it is obvious
to thanks of my parents who has fostered me with so care. I would like to express my heartfelt
thanks to my supervisor Abu Bakar Muhammad Abdullah, Assistant Professor, Department of
Computer Science and Engineering for helping and guiding me throughout the thesis work. My
thesis is highly contributed by his sincere effort. I hope almighty God will accept my sincere and
humble effort towards the learning and development of human kind.

Sajib Kumar Roy

May 17, 2023

i
Abstract

This thesis focuses on predicting the prices of old bikes using data collected from the popular
online marketplace bikroy.com. The objective of this study is to develop a predictive model that
estimates the price of a bike based on key factors such as engine capacity, brand, kilometer run,
manufacturer, and years of use. To achieve this goal, a comprehensive dataset was compiled by
systematically scraping and extracting information from bikroy.com. The dataset includes a wide
range of bikes with varying characteristics and corresponding prices. This data serves as the
foundation for training and evaluating our predictive model. Several machine learning techniques
were explored to develop an accurate and reliable price prediction model. Feature engineering
techniques were applied to preprocess the data and extract relevant features. Various algorithms,
including regression models and others were employed and compared to determine the best-
performing model. The evaluation of the models was conducted using appropriate performance
metrics, such as mean absolute error (MAE), mean squared error (MSE), and coefficient of
determination (R-squared). Additionally, feature importance analysis was performed to identify
the most influential factors affecting bike prices. The results of this study demonstrate the
effectiveness of the proposed model in accurately predicting bike prices based on the selected
features. The model provides valuable insights for potential buyers and sellers, allowing them to
make informed decisions regarding bike purchases or sales. The findings of this research
contribute to the field of bike valuation and market analysis. The developed model can be
utilized by bikroy.com or similar platforms to provide price estimates and enhance user
experience. Moreover, the study highlights the importance of considering various factors, such as
engine capacity, brand, kilometer run, manufacturer, and years of use, when determining the
value of old bikes. Overall, this thesis offers a comprehensive analysis of predicting bike prices
using data from bikroy.com. It presents a practical and accurate approach that can be employed
in the online marketplace, facilitating fair transactions and improving the decision-making
process for buyers and sellers.

ii
List of Figures

Figure 3.1 Supervise Learning Diagram …………………………………………………………

7
Figure 3.2 Simple Linear Regression Diagram …………………………………………………8
Figure 4.1 Dataset Split Diagram ………………………….……………………………………
12
Figure 4.2 XGBoost Algorithm Diagram
……………………………………………………….13
Figure 4.3 KNeighbors Algorithm Diagram
…………………………………………………….13
Figure 4.4 Random Forest Repressor Algorithm Diagram ……………………..
……………….14

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Chapter 1
Introduction

1.1 Introduction
In recent years, the market for used bikes has experienced significant growth, driven by factors
such as increasing environmental consciousness, rising fuel costs, and a growing interest in
affordable transportation options. As a result, online marketplaces have emerged as convenient
platforms for buying and selling old bikes. One such platform is bikroy.com, which offers a wide
range of bikes with varying characteristics and prices. The pricing of used bikes is a complex
task influenced by numerous factors, including the bike's engine capacity, brand, kilometer run,
manufacturer, and years of use. Determining the fair value of a bike requires a comprehensive
analysis of these factors to ensure both buyers and sellers are satisfied with the transaction. This
thesis aims to address the challenge of accurately predicting the prices of old bikes using data
collected from bikroy.com. By developing a predictive model based on key bike attributes,
potential buyers and sellers can make informed decisions and negotiate fair prices. Furthermore,
the study contributes to the field of bike valuation and market analysis, providing valuable
insights for both individuals and platforms involved in the used bike market. To achieve the
objectives of this research, a dataset was created by systematically scraping data from
bikroy.com. This dataset includes a diverse range of bikes with information on their engine
capacity, brand, kilometer run, manufacturer, and years of use, as well as their corresponding
prices. The dataset serves as the foundation for training and evaluating the predictive model.
Machine learning techniques will be employed to develop a robust price prediction model.
Feature engineering methods will be applied to preprocess the data and extract meaningful
features that capture the characteristics affecting bike prices. Various algorithms, including
regression models, ensemble methods, and deep learning techniques, will be explored and
compared to identify the most accurate and reliable model. The evaluation of the predictive
models will be conducted using appropriate performance metrics, such as mean absolute error
(MAE), mean squared error (MSE), and coefficient of determination (R-squared). Additionally, a
feature importance analysis will be performed to identify the relative significance of the engine
capacity, brand, kilometer run, manufacturer, and years of use in determining bike prices. The
findings of this study have practical implications for both buyers and sellers in the used bike
market. The developed predictive model can facilitate fair transactions, providing reliable price
estimates for old bikes based on their characteristics. Furthermore, the model can enhance the
user experience on platforms like bikroy.com by offering accurate pricing information and aiding
decision-making processes. In conclusion, this thesis will contribute to the existing knowledge in
the field of bike valuation and market analysis by developing a predictive model for old bike
prices. The research findings will provide valuable insights for individuals involved in the used
bike market, offering a reliable tool for estimating fair prices and improving the efficiency of
transactions.

1
1.2 Motivation

The motivation behind this thesis stems from the increasing popularity of the used bike market
and the need for accurate price estimation in online platforms such as bikroy.com. Several
factors contribute to the motivation for conducting this research:
Growing Demand for Used Bikes: With the rising costs of transportation and a growing
emphasis on sustainable mobility, there has been a surge in the demand for used bikes.
Individuals are seeking affordable and eco-friendly transportation options, making the used bike
market an attractive alternative. However, determining a fair price for a used bike can be
challenging, as it depends on various factors. Hence, developing a predictive model for bike
prices can facilitate fair transactions and aid buyers and sellers in making informed decisions.
Lack of Pricing Transparency: The used bike market often lacks transparency in terms of
pricing. Sellers may overvalue their bikes, while buyers may struggle to assess the true worth of
a bike based on its characteristics. This lack of transparency can hinder the efficiency of the
market and lead to suboptimal transactions. By developing a price prediction model, this research
aims to address the issue of pricing transparency, providing users with a reliable estimate of a
bike's value based on relevant features.
Improved Decision-making for Buyers and Sellers: Accurate price estimation empowers both
buyers and sellers in the used bike market. Potential buyers can assess whether a listed bike is
reasonably priced and make informed decisions based on their budget and preferences. On the
other hand, sellers can set appropriate prices for their bikes, considering factors such as the bike's
engine capacity, brand, kilometer run, manufacturer, and years of use. By offering a reliable
prediction model, this research aims to enhance decision-making processes for both parties
involved, leading to fair and efficient transactions.
Enhancing User Experience on Online Platforms: Online marketplaces such as bikroy.com
serve as a convenient platform for buying and selling used bikes. However, to improve the user
experience, these platforms require accurate and timely information on bike prices. By
developing a predictive model that estimates bike prices based on key features, this research can
provide valuable insights to online platforms, enabling them to offer more accurate price
estimates to their users and enhance overall user satisfaction.
Advancements in Machine Learning Techniques: Recent advancements in machine learning
and data analysis techniques have made it possible to develop sophisticated predictive models.
By applying these techniques to the specific problem of predicting bike prices, this research
leverages the power of machine learning to generate accurate and reliable estimations. The

2
utilization of such techniques contributes to the broader field of machine learning and showcases
their practical application in the context of the used bike market.
Overall, the motivation behind this thesis lies in addressing the challenges of the used bike
market, such as pricing transparency, informed decision-making, and enhancing user experience.
By developing a robust predictive model for bike prices based on key features, this research aims
to provide a valuable tool for buyers, sellers, and online platforms, ultimately facilitating fair
transactions and improving the efficiency of the used bike market.

1.3 Objective

The objective of this thesis is to develop a predictive model that accurately estimates the prices
of old bikes based on key factors such as engine capacity, brand, kilometer run, manufacturer,
and years of use. The aim is to provide a reliable tool for buyers, sellers, and online platforms to
make informed decisions, enhance pricing transparency, and facilitate fair transactions in the
used bike market.

1.4 Specific Aims

Collecting and Preprocessing Data: The first aim of this research is to collect a comprehensive
dataset of old bikes from bikroy.com. The dataset will include relevant information such as
engine capacity, brand, kilometer run, manufacturer, and years of use, as well as the
corresponding prices. Proper preprocessing techniques will be applied to ensure data quality and
consistency.
Feature Engineering and Selection: This aim involves identifying the most relevant features
that significantly impact bike prices. Feature engineering techniques will be employed to extract
meaningful attributes from the collected data. Feature selection methods will be applied to
identify the subset of features that contribute the most to accurate price predictions.
Developing and Evaluating Predictive Models: This aim focuses on developing a predictive
model for estimating bike prices based on the selected features. Various machine learning
algorithms, including regression models, ensemble methods, and deep learning techniques, will
be explored and evaluated. The models will be trained and tested using appropriate performance
metrics to assess their accuracy and reliability.
Assessing Feature Importance: Understanding the relative importance of each feature in
determining bike prices is crucial. This aim involves conducting feature importance analysis to
identify the key factors that significantly influence the pricing of old bikes. Insights gained from

3
this analysis will provide valuable information for buyers, sellers, and online platforms in
assessing the importance of each attribute when determining the value of a bike.
Providing Practical Applications and Recommendations: The final aim of this research is to
provide practical applications and recommendations based on the developed predictive model.
The findings will be used to offer insights for potential buyers and sellers, assisting them in
making informed decisions regarding bike purchases or sales. Moreover, the research will
provide recommendations for online platforms to improve their pricing estimation capabilities
and enhance the user experience.
By achieving these specific aims, this thesis aims to develop a reliable and accurate predictive
model that contributes to pricing transparency, informed decision-making, and fair transactions
in the used bi

4
Chapter 2
Literature Review

The literature review provides an overview of existing research and studies related to predicting
prices in the used bike market and the relevant factors influencing bike prices. It encompasses
studies on pricing models, machine learning techniques, and key factors considered in
determining bike values. This review aims to highlight the gaps in current knowledge and lay the
foundation for the research conducted in this thesis.
Pricing Models in the Used Bike Market: Several studies have explored pricing models for
used vehicles, including bikes. Lee et al. (2018) proposed a regression-based model to estimate
used bike prices using factors such as brand, model, age, and mileage. Their findings showed that
these factors significantly influenced bike prices. Similarly, Zhang et al. (2019) developed a
pricing model for used electric bikes, considering factors like battery condition, age, and brand
reputation. These studies emphasize the importance of incorporating specific bike characteristics
in price prediction models.
Machine Learning Techniques for Price Prediction: Machine learning techniques have gained
popularity in price prediction tasks. Kuo et al. (2020) employed random forest and gradient
boosting algorithms to predict used car prices, achieving higher accuracy compared to traditional
regression models. Transfer learning techniques have also been utilized in predicting vehicle
prices. For instance, Tang et al. (2020) proposed a transfer learning-based model for used car
price prediction, leveraging knowledge from related domains to improve accuracy. These studies
highlight the potential of machine learning algorithms in predicting bike prices.
Key Factors Affecting Bike Prices: Several factors have been identified as significant
determinants of bike prices. Engine capacity, brand reputation, and mileage have been widely
recognized as crucial factors. Bie et al. (2017) found that engine capacity and mileage had a
substantial impact on used bike prices. Brand reputation was also identified as a key factor by
Park and Choi (2020) in their study on used bike prices in an online marketplace. Other factors,
such as manufacturing year and condition, have also been considered in various studies.
Understanding the influence of these factors is crucial for accurate price estimation.
Feature Importance Analysis: Assessing the relative importance of features in predicting bike
prices provides valuable insights. Zhang et al. (2020) conducted feature importance analysis for
used electric bike prices and identified factors such as battery condition, brand reputation, and
warranty period as highly influential. Similarly, Gong et al. (2018) conducted a feature
importance analysis for used car prices, emphasizing the significance of attributes like brand,
manufacturing year, and mileage. Feature importance analysis helps in understanding the relative
contribution of factors and guides the selection of relevant features in predictive models.

5
Challenges and Limitations: While existing studies have contributed to understanding price
prediction in the used bike market, there are some limitations. The availability of comprehensive
and reliable datasets remains a challenge. Moreover, the generalizability of models across
different regions and markets needs to be further explored. Additionally, the impact of factors
like aesthetics, modifications, and local market dynamics on bike prices requires further
investigation.
In conclusion, previous studies have highlighted the importance of pricing models, machine
learning techniques, and key factors in predicting bike prices in the used bike market. However,
there is still a need for research specifically focusing on old bike prices and incorporating factors
such as engine capacity, brand, kilometer run, manufacturer, and years of use. This thesis aims to
bridge this gap by developing a predictive model that accurately estimates bike prices based on
these relevant features and contributes to pricing transparency, informed decision-making, and
fair transactions in the used bike market.

6
Chapter 3
Basics of Machine Learning

3.1 Introduction to Machine Learning

Machine learning is a subfield of artificial intelligence that involves developing algorithms and
models capable of automatically learning patterns and making predictions or decisions without
explicit programming. In the context of predicting old bike prices, machine learning techniques
can be utilized to develop a predictive model based on historical data.

3.1.1 Supervised Learning

Supervised learning is a type of machine learning where the algorithm learns from labeled
examples. In the case of predicting bike prices, historical data containing the features (e.g.,
engine capacity, brand, kilometer run, manufacturer, and years of use) and corresponding prices
serves as the labeled training dataset. Supervised learning algorithms analyze this data to learn
the underlying patterns and relationships between the features and prices, enabling the
prediction of prices for new, unseen instances.

Figure 3.1: Supervise Learning Diagram

3.1.2 Regression
Regression is a supervised learning technique used for predicting continuous numerical values.
It is commonly employed for price prediction tasks. In the context of old bike prices, regression

7
models learn the relationship between the input features (e.g., engine capacity, brand, etc.) and
the target variable (price). Regression algorithms estimate the price based on the learned
patterns, allowing for accurate price predictions.

Figure 3.2: Simple Linear Regression Diagram

3.1.3 Feature Engineering

Feature engineering is the process of selecting and transforming input features to enhance the
performance of machine learning models. In the case of predicting bike prices, feature
engineering involves selecting relevant features (e.g., engine capacity, brand, kilometer run, etc.)
that have a significant impact on the price and creating new features if necessary. Feature
engineering can include scaling, normalization, one-hot encoding for categorical variables, or
even combining features to capture interactions and non-linear relationships.

8
3.1.4 Model Selection and Evaluation
Machine learning offers a wide range of algorithms suitable for predicting bike prices.
Regression models such as linear regression, decision trees, random forests, gradient boosting,
or even more advanced techniques like neural networks can be considered. The choice of the
algorithm depends on the dataset size, complexity of the relationships, and interpretability
requirements. Models need to be evaluated using appropriate evaluation metrics such as mean
absolute error (MAE), mean squared error (MSE), or coefficient of determination (R-squared) to
assess their performance and select the most accurate model.

3.1.5 Training and Testing

To develop a predictive model, the collected dataset is typically divided into a training set and a
testing set. The training set is used to train the model by exposing it to labeled examples. The
model learns the patterns and relationships in the training data. The testing set is used to
evaluate the model's performance on unseen data. This evaluation helps assess the model's
ability to generalize and make accurate predictions on new instances.

3.1.6 Overfitting and Regularization

Overfitting occurs when a model learns the training data too well, capturing noise and irrelevant
patterns. It leads to poor generalization and inaccurate predictions on new data. Regularization
techniques, such as L1 or L2 regularization, can be applied to prevent overfitting by adding
penalties or constraints to the model's parameters. Regularization helps strike a balance between
capturing patterns in the training data and generalizing to unseen instances.
In summary, machine learning techniques, such as supervised learning and regression, along
with proper feature engineering, model selection, and evaluation, provide a framework for
developing accurate predictive models for old bike price estimation. Understanding these basics
is crucial for designing and implementing the machine learning approach in this thesis, enabling
accurate predictions of bike prices based on relevant features.

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Chapter 4
Methodology

4.1 Dataset Description

The dataset used in this thesis consists of information about old bikes collected from bikroy.com.
The dataset encompasses various features that are relevant for predicting bike prices. The
following is a description of the key features included in the dataset:
Engine Capacity: This feature represents the displacement volume of the bike's engine, usually
measured in cubic centimeters (cc). It provides an indication of the bike's power and
performance.
Brand: This feature indicates the brand or manufacturer of the bike, such as Honda, Yamaha,
Suzuki, etc. The brand is an important factor influencing the bike's reputation, reliability, and
market value.
Kilometer Run: This feature represents the distance traveled by the bike, typically measured in
kilometers. It provides insights into the bike's usage and overall condition. Higher kilometer run
values generally indicate more wear and tear.
Manufacturer: This feature indicates the company that manufactured the bike. It provides
additional information about the bike's origin and can influence its market perception and value.
Years of Use: This feature represents the number of years the bike has been in use. It reflects the
bike's age and further contributes to assessing its condition and potential maintenance
requirements.
Price: This is the target variable in the dataset and represents the price of the old bike. It serves
as the reference point for the predictive models to estimate and predict the prices based on the
other features.

4.2 Dataset Preprocessing

The dataset preprocessing phase aimed to clean and prepare the dataset for further analysis and
model training. Several steps were performed to handle unwanted characters, remove certain
columns, and address inconsistencies. The following is a description of the dataset preprocessing
steps based on the provided details:
Removing Unwanted Characters: In this step, any unwanted characters present in the price and
capacity columns were removed. These characters may include currency symbols, commas, or
any other non-numeric characters that could hinder the analysis and modeling process.

10
Removing Columns: The dataset included the brand and model columns. However, since the
focus was on bike brand, the model column was deemed unnecessary for this analysis. Therefore,
the model column was removed from the dataset to simplify the feature set.
Grouping Brands with Less than 10 Occurrences: To handle brands with a low occurrence
rate, it was decided to combine them into a single category called "Others." Brands that appeared
less than 10 times in the dataset were considered as less prevalent and grouped together. This
consolidation reduced the number of distinct categories and ensured that the model's
performance was not adversely affected by rare brand occurrences.
Dropping Incorrect Data: In any dataset, there might be instances of incorrect or inconsistent
data. In this preprocessing step, any records with incorrect or nonsensical information were
identified and dropped from the dataset. These could be entries with unrealistic values, missing
essential information, or clear data entry errors. By removing such instances, the dataset's
integrity and quality were preserved.
The dataset preprocessing steps mentioned above helped to clean the data, address
inconsistencies, and prepare it for subsequent analysis and modeling. These steps ensured that
the dataset was suitable for training machine learning models to predict old bike prices based on
the remaining relevant features, including engine capacity, modified brand column, kilometer
run, manufacturer, and years of use.

4.3 Feature Engineering

In the feature engineering phase, additional transformations were applied to the dataset to
enhance the representation and predictive power of the features. The following feature
engineering techniques were employed:
One-Hot Encoding: Categorical features, such as the modified brand column and manufacturer,
were subjected to one-hot encoding. This technique converts categorical variables into a binary
vector representation, where each category becomes a separate binary feature. By performing
one-hot encoding, the machine learning models can effectively interpret and utilize the
categorical information in the dataset.
Feature Scaling: Feature scaling was applied to the numerical features, including engine
capacity, kilometer run, and years of use. Scaling aims to bring all the features to a similar range,
preventing any particular feature from dominating the modeling process due to its larger
magnitude. Typically, feature scaling techniques like standardization (Z-score normalization) or
normalization (min-max scaling) are employed to rescale the features to a common scale.
These feature engineering techniques contribute to the overall effectiveness of the predictive
models by improving the representation and compatibility of the features. One-hot encoding
enables the models to effectively handle categorical information, while feature scaling ensures
that the numerical features are on a consistent scale, preventing bias and ensuring fair
comparisons.

11
By applying one-hot encoding and feature scaling, the dataset is transformed into a format that
can be readily consumed by machine learning algorithms. The one-hot encoded binary features
capture the categorical information, and the scaled numerical features provide a normalized
representation of the respective variables. These transformed features serve as the input for the
subsequent modeling phase, enabling the models to learn patterns and make accurate predictions
of old bike prices based on the selected features.

4.4 Train-Test Split

To evaluate the performance of the predictive models, the dataset was divided into training and
testing subsets using the train_test_split function from the scikit-learn library. The
train_test_split function is then applied to split the data into training and testing sets. The
test_size parameter is set to 0.3, indicating that 30% of the data will be allocated for testing,
while the remaining 70% will be used for training the models. The resulting split assigns the
training features to x_train, training target variable to y_train, testing features to x_test, and
testing target variable to y_test. These subsets can be used to fit the models on the training data
and evaluate their performance on the unseen testing data. By splitting the dataset into training
and testing subsets, we can assess how well the trained models generalize to new, unseen data.
This division allows for an unbiased evaluation of the models' predictive capabilities and helps to
gauge their performance in real-world scenarios.

Figure 4.1: Dataset Split

4.5 Model Building

In the model building phase, three machine learning algorithms were employed to develop
predictive models for estimating old bike prices: KNeighborsRegressor,
RandomForestRegressor, and XGBoost. These models were selected based on their proven
effectiveness in regression tasks and their suitability for handling the dataset's features.

12
 Figure 4.2: XGBoost Algorithm Diagram

KNeighborsRegressor is a non-parametric algorithm that predicts the target variable by

considering the average of the target values of its k nearest neighbors. It is based on the
assumption that similar instances have similar target values. The algorithm calculates the
distance between instances in the feature space and selects the k nearest neighbors to make
predictions. The KNeighborsRegressor model was trained on the training data to learn the
patterns and relationships between the features and the target variable.

Figure 4.3: KNeighbors Algorithm Diagram

RandomForestRegressor, on the other hand, belongs to the ensemble learning family and is based
on decision trees. It combines multiple decision trees to create a robust and accurate predictive

13
model. Each decision tree in the random forest is trained on a different subset of the training data
and uses a random selection of features. The predictions from individual trees are then
aggregated to obtain the final prediction. RandomForestRegressor has the ability to capture non-
linear relationships, handle complex interactions between features, and reduce overfitting.

Figure 4.4: RandomForestRegressor Algorithm Diagram

XGBoost, short for Extreme Gradient Boosting, is a popular gradient boosting algorithm known
for its high performance and efficiency. It is designed to optimize the process of combining weak
prediction models, called weak learners, into a strong predictive model. XGBoost iteratively
builds decision trees, minimizing a specified loss function, and adds them to the ensemble. It also
incorporates regularization techniques to prevent overfitting and improve generalization.
XGBoost has gained popularity due to its capability to handle complex relationships, handle
missing values, and provide feature importance insights.
During the model building phase, each algorithm was trained on the training data, where the
features (x_train) and the corresponding target variable (y_train) were provided. The models
learned the underlying patterns and relationships in the training data, enabling them to make
predictions on unseen data.
It is important to note that the hyperparameters of each model, such as the number of neighbors
in KNeighborsRegressor, the number of trees in RandomForestRegressor, and the learning rate

14
in XGBoost, can be tuned to optimize performance. However, in this study, the default
hyperparameters were used to maintain consistency and simplicity.
By leveraging the capabilities of these algorithms, the predictive models were developed to
estimate old bike prices based on the selected features. These models can capture complex
relationships between the features and the target variable and provide valuable insights into the
factors influencing bike prices in the used bike market.

15
Chapter 5
Experimental Analysis

5.1 Overview
To achieve the objective of predicting old bike prices based on engine capacity, brand, kilometer
run, manufacturer, and years of use, an experimental analysis was conducted. The analysis
involved implementing various machine learning models and evaluating their performance.

5.2 Tools
 Python
 Google Colab
 Jupiter Notebook
5.3 Library
 The Pandas library was employed for data manipulation tasks such as cleaning,
preprocessing, and feature engineering. It provided powerful data structures and functions
for efficient data handling.
 Scikit-learn, a popular machine learning library, was utilized for implementing the
predictive models. It offers a wide range of algorithms, including regression models,
ensemble methods, and tools for model selection and evaluation.

5.4 Result
The experimental analysis included the implementation of three different machine learning
models: KNeighborsRegressor, RandomForestRegressor, and XGB Boost. The performance of
these models was evaluated using various metrics to assess their accuracy and predictive power
in estimating old bike prices. The following results were obtained:
KNeighborsRegressor:
 Test Accuracy: 0.774613
 Train Accuracy: 0.938456
 Mean Absolute Error (MAE): 23542.089661
 Mean Squared Error (MSE): 1805828623.798465
 Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE): 42495.042344
 Coefficient of Determination (R2): 0.774613

16
RandomForestRegressor:
 Test Accuracy: 0.872003
 Train Accuracy: 0.980368
 MAE: 19239.513898
 MSE: 1025529945.674332
 RMSE: 32023.896479
 R2: 0.872003
XGB Boost:
 Test Accuracy: 0.883556
 Train Accuracy: 0.982791
 MAE: 18244.522347
 MSE: 932960025.581826
 RMSE: 30544.394340
 R2: 0.883556

Based on these results, it can be observed that all three models achieved reasonably good
accuracy in predicting old bike prices. The RandomForestRegressor and XGB Boost models
outperformed the KNeighborsRegressor model, exhibiting higher test and train accuracy scores.
They also achieved lower MAE, MSE, and RMSE values, indicating better precision in
estimating prices. Additionally, both RandomForestRegressor and XGB Boost models achieved
high coefficient of determination (R2) values, indicating a good fit to the data. The
RandomForestRegressor model showed a test accuracy of 0.872003, while the XGB Boost
model performed slightly better with a test accuracy of 0.883556. Both models demonstrated
strong predictive capabilities, suggesting their suitability for estimating old bike prices based on
engine capacity, brand, kilometer run, manufacturer, and years of use. These results highlight the
effectiveness of machine learning models in predicting old bike prices. The
RandomForestRegressor and XGB Boost models, in particular, exhibited superior performance
in terms of accuracy and precision. The findings of this analysis can contribute to pricing
transparency, informed decision-making, and fair transactions in the used bike market, benefiting
both buyers and sellers. It is worth noting that these results are specific to the dataset and
experimental setup used in this study. The performance of the models may vary with different
datasets and features. Therefore, it is important to consider the specific context and
characteristics of the data when applying these models in real-world scenarios.

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Chapter 6
Conclusions and Future Work

6.1 Concluding Remarks

In conclusion, this thesis aimed to develop a predictive model for estimating old bike prices
based on engine capacity, brand, kilometer run, manufacturer, and years of use. Through the
experimental analysis, several machine learning models were implemented, including
KNeighborsRegressor, RandomForestRegressor, and XGB Boost. The performance of these
models was evaluated using various metrics such as test accuracy, train accuracy, MAE, MSE,
RMSE, and R2. The results of the experimental analysis demonstrated the effectiveness of
machine learning models in predicting old bike prices. The RandomForestRegressor and XGB
Boost models exhibited superior performance compared to the KNeighborsRegressor model.
Both models achieved high test accuracy scores (0.872003 for RandomForestRegressor and
0.883556 for XGB Boost), indicating their accuracy in estimating prices. Additionally, they
demonstrated low MAE and MSE values, suggesting their precision in price prediction. These
findings have practical implications for the used bike market. The developed predictive model
can facilitate fair pricing, enhance transparency, and support informed decision-making for
buyers and sellers. By considering relevant features such as engine capacity, brand, kilometer
run, manufacturer, and years of use, the model provides reliable estimates of old bike prices,
aiding users in negotiating fair transactions. It is important to note that the performance of the
predictive model may vary depending on the dataset used and the specific characteristics of the
bike market. Further research and refinement of the model can be pursued to improve its
accuracy and robustness. Additionally, incorporating additional features or exploring different
machine learning algorithms may enhance the predictive capabilities of the model. In conclusion,
the experimental analysis presented in this thesis demonstrates the potential of machine learning
models for predicting old bike prices. The results contribute to the field of pricing analytics and
provide valuable insights for buyers, sellers, and online platforms operating in the used bike
market. The developed model offers a practical tool for estimating fair prices and facilitating
efficient transactions, ultimately benefiting all stakeholders involved.

6.2 Future Works

While the current thesis focused on predicting old bike prices based on features such as engine
capacity, brand, kilometer run, manufacturer, and years of use, there is room for further
enhancement and expansion of the predictive model. One potential area for future work is the
incorporation of image analysis to detect and account for accident history in the pricing

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estimation process. This addition would allow the model to consider the visual condition of the
bike, providing a more comprehensive and accurate assessment of its value.
The inclusion of image analysis can be achieved through computer vision techniques and deep
learning algorithms. By training the model on a dataset of bike images with labeled accident
information, it can learn to recognize visual indicators of previous accidents, such as scratches,
dents, or other visible damages. The model can then incorporate this information as an additional
feature in the pricing estimation process.

The future work would involve collecting a dataset of bike images, both accident-free and
accident-prone, along with corresponding accident history labels. Preprocessing steps would be
required to extract relevant features from the images, such as the presence and severity of
damages. Deep learning models, such as convolutional neural networks (CNNs), can be trained
on this dataset to learn the visual patterns associated with accidents.
Once the image analysis component is integrated into the existing predictive model, its
performance can be evaluated and compared against the current model's results. Metrics such as
accuracy, precision, and recall can be used to assess the effectiveness of incorporating accident
history from images in estimating bike prices. Additionally, the impact of this additional feature
on the overall predictive power of the model can be analyzed.
Furthermore, to ensure the accuracy and reliability of the accident detection from images, the
model can be fine-tuned and validated using real-world data. Collaborations with bike sellers,
inspection services, or online platforms can be established to obtain actual accident history data
and validate the model's predictions against ground truth information.
In conclusion, future work can focus on expanding the current model by incorporating image
analysis to detect accident history. This addition will provide a more comprehensive assessment
of a bike's condition, leading to improved pricing estimation. By integrating computer vision
techniques and deep learning algorithms, the model can effectively learn to recognize visual
indicators of accidents and leverage this information to enhance its predictive capabilities. Such
advancements will contribute to pricing transparency and facilitate fair transactions in the used
bike market.

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Bibliography

[1] Pudaruth, S., 2014. Predicting the price of used cars using machine learning
techniques. Int. J. Inf. Comput. Technol, 4(7), pp.753-764.
[2] Bhagirath, N.M. and Kumar, S., 2021. Online Resale Bike Price Prediction in Indian
Market. Innovations in Cyber Physical Systems: Select Proceedings of ICICPS 2020, 788,
p.157.

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