Analysis and Management

of Production System
Lesson 5: Multiple-stage factory models

Prof. Giulia Bruno

Department of Management and

Production Engineering

[email protected]
Flow Variability

• Till now, our attention was on the analysis of a single

workstation
 The workstation impact on the output flow of jobs from the workstations
was not considered as this information was not needed to study the
performance of a single workstation
• But actually, the variability of a station has effects on the
behaviour of the next station on the line and, when the output
from a WS becomes the input to the next one, this aspect can
be no more neglected: this generates the so called flow
variability
• Flow: transfer of a job or a part from one machine to the other
Flow Variability

Arrivals:
• E[Ta]  mean time between two arrivals
• c2a  squared coefficient of variation of the mean time
between two arrivals
Process:
• E[Te]  effective process time
• c2e  squared coefficient of variation of the effective
process time
• E[Te] < E[Ta]  otherwise, the station would be overloaded

Departures:
• E[Td]  mean time between two departures/releases
• c2d  squared coefficient of variation of the mean time
between two departures
Conservation of flow

• In the long run, the same number of units must

depart the workstation as enter the workstation
• Otherwise, there would be a buildup of jobs in the
workstation and the queue would grow infinitely as
time extends to infinity
• Applying this conservation of flow concept, the
mean arrival rate of jobs to a workstation operating
under steady-state conditions equals the mean
departure rate of jobs
E[Ta] = E[Td]
Variability of departures

• From previous equations, we see that in case of

exponential systems (M/M/m model), the output process is
probabilistically identical to the input process
 c d2 = c a2 = c e2 = 1
• For non-exponential systems, instead, it is a bit more
involving to obtain the cd2 value
 If the WS is extremely busy, the distribution of time between
departures is expected to be very close to the process time
distribution, so that cd2 should be similar to ce2
 If the WS is lightly loaded, instead, the inter-departure time
distribution should be similar to the inter-arrival time
distribution, so that cd2 should be similar to ca2
Variability of departures

• High-usage station

 The flow variability out of a high-usage station is mainly

determined by the process variability of the station itself
Variability of departures

• Low-usage station

 The flow variability out of a low-usage station is mainly

determined by the arrival variability
Variability of departures

• Whitt equation

• 𝒖~𝟏 : the station is almost always busy, thus c2d~c2s

• 𝒖~𝟎 : the station is almost never busy, thus c2d~c2a

Example

● For a single server workstation, the inter-arrival

distribution parameters are E[Ta] = 20 min and C2a =
1/2. The service time distribution parameters are E[Ts]
= 15 min and C2s = 1/3
● Then λ= 3/hr and μ = 4/hr, and the system utilization
factor u = λ /μ = 3/4
● The squared coefficient of variation of the inter-
departure times is given by
Exercises

1) A workstation has a workload that uses 85% of its

single machine capacity. Arrivals to the workstation
are exponentially distributed and the service time SCV
is 1.5. What is the estimated SCV of the departure
stream?

2) A two-machine workstation has a utilization factor of

80%. The arrival SCV is 2.0 and the service time
follows an Erlang-2 distribution. What is the estimated
SCV of the departure stream?
Solution (1)

A workstation has a workload that uses 85% of its

single machine capacity. Arrivals to the workstation are
exponentially distributed and the service time SCV is
1.5. What is the estimated SCV of the departure
stream?

G/G/1
u = 0,85
𝑐𝑠2 = 1,5
𝑐𝑎2 = 1

𝑐𝑑2 = 1 − 𝑢2 ∙ 𝑐𝑎2 + 𝑢2 ∙ 𝑐𝑠2 = 1 − 0,852 ∙ 1 + 0,852 ∙ 1,5 = 1,36

Solution (2)

A two-machine workstation has a utilization factor of

80%. The arrival SCV is 2.0 and the service time
follows an Erlang-2 distribution. What is the estimated
SCV of the departure stream?

G/G/2
u = 0,80
𝑐𝑠2 = 0,5
𝑐𝑎2 = 2
c=2
𝑐𝑠2 + 𝑐−1 0,5+ 2−1
𝑐𝑑2 = 1− 𝑢2 ∙ 𝑐𝑎2 + 𝑢2 ∙ = 1 − 0,82 ∙ 2 + 0,82 ∙ = 1,134
𝑐 2
Serial system

● In a serial line having a constant flow with no losses or reworks,

anything that comes out of a station enters the following one
● This system is treated as a series of G/G/c queues with specified
service parameters (E[Ts(i)], C2s (i), ci) for each workstation i
● Because of the serial nature of the system, the arrival stream for
workstation i is the departure stream fromworkstation i−1
 C2a(i)= C2d(i−1) for i=2,…n
● In addition, the initial workstation inter-arrival time distribution
parameters E[Ta(1)], C2a (1) are assumed known
Serial system

● If we were limited to exponential processes, the

system as a whole could be modeled using the state-
diagram approach
 but the diagram approach becomes intractable even for small
networks because of dimensionality problems of the state space
● The approach to modeling the network composed of
M/M/c systems is to model each individual node as if it
were independent of all other nodes using as input to
each node the same arrival process as to the first
node
Example

● Patients arrive to the emergency room according to Poisson

process (i.e., with exponential inter-arrival times) with a mean rate
of 4 per hour
● When they arrive, there is a single clerk who takes their
information; this process takes an exponentially distributed length
of time with an average of 4 minutes per patient
● There is a triage nurse who next sees the patient; the nurse takes
an exponentially distributed length of time averaging 10 minutes
per patient
● Finally, one of two doctors sees the patient and each doctor takes
an exponentially distributed amount of time with each patient
averaging 24 minutes with the doctor
● We would like to know the average number of patients within the
facility at any one time and the average time that a patient spends
in the emergency room
Example

● The emergency room system is composed of an M/M/1 system

feeding a •/M/1 system feeding a •/M/2 system
 Because of the property that M/M/c systems have exponential inter-departure
times, the second and third nodes are an M/M/1 and M/M/2 system with an
arrival rate of 4 per hour
● The system can be analyzed as three independent single node
systems
● The first node has a utilization factor of u1 = 4/15 and thus the
average number of patients in the first node is WIP(1) = 4/11.
● The second node has a utilization factor of u2 = 2/3 yielding WIP(2)
=2
Example

● For the third node, we first find the time spent waiting for the
doctor, i.e., CTq(3) = 42.67 min since u3 = 0.8
● Adding the doctor’s time to the wait time yields the time spent in
third node as CT(3) = 1.11 hr
● Applying Little’s Law gives the average number of patients at the
node as WIP(3) = 4.44
● Thus, the total number in the emergency room is WIP = 4/11 + 2
+ 4.44 = 6.8
● Applying Little’s Law one more time, yields the average value for
the total time a patient spends in the emergency room as CTs =
1.7 hr
Generalization

● The analysis approach used in the Example is exact only under the
assumptions of infinite capacity nodes and exponential
distributions for inter-arrivals and processing times, but it provides
the motivation for approximation schemes when these
assumptions do not hold
● The analysis approach for general systems is based on the
concept that a system’s performance can be adequately
approximated by separating the system into individual workstations
● The performance characteristics of the individual workstations are
computed separately and then these results recombined for the
total system behavior
● This decomposition approach is fundamental to the approximation
of general network configurations
Example

● Consider a three-workstation factory with serial flow

● Each workstation has a single machine with the service time
distribution parameters as listed in the table
● The inter-arrival time distribution for jobs to the factory has a mean
of 15 minutes or a mean rate of 4 jobs per hour, and a squared
coefficient of variation of 0.75
● The system mean work-in-process, cycle time, and throughput are
desired
Example

● Since arrivals to the system occur at the first workstation, E[Ta(1)]

= 15 min yielding a utilization factor of u1 = E[Ts(1)]/E[Ta(1)] = 0.8

● For the first workstation we have the following results

Example

● Because this is a pure serial network, the arrival rate and

throughput rate will be the same for each workstation
● Thus, the utilization factors for the other two workstations are u2 =
E[Ts(2)]/E[Ta(1)] =0.6 and u3 = E[Ts(3)]/E[Ta(1)] = 0.88
Example

● Finally, the total factory performance characteristics for this serial

system are
Exercise 1

● Find the system performance measures of CTs,

WIPs, and throughput for a pure serial system
consisting of three single capacity workstations
● The arrival rate to the system is 3 jobs per hour, with
the inter-arrival time being exponentially distributed
● The processing time data are:
 Exercise 1 - Solution

𝐸[𝑇𝑎 ] = 1/3 hr
𝑐𝑎 2 = 1
𝜆 𝑎 = 3 u/hr

WS1 WS2 WS3

𝐸[𝑇𝑒 (1)] = 0,25 hr 𝐸[𝑇𝑒 (2)] = 0,29 hr 𝐸[𝑇𝑒 (3)] = 0,30 hr

𝑐𝑒2 (1)= 4 𝑐𝑒2 2 = 3 𝑐𝑒2 3 = 2

0,25 0,29 0,30
u1= = 0,75 u2= = 0,87 u3= = 0,90
1/3 1/3 1/3

𝑐𝑎 2 +ce1 2 𝑢 𝑐𝑎 2 +ce2 2 𝑢 𝑐 2 +c 2 𝑢
𝐶𝑇𝑞1 = 2
⋅ 1−𝑢 ⋅ E[Te (1)] = 1,875 h 𝐶𝑇𝑞2 = ⋅ ⋅ E[Te (2)] = 5,51 h 𝐶𝑇𝑞3 = 𝑎 e3 ⋅ ⋅
2 1−𝑢 2 1−𝑢
E[Te (3)] = 6,64 h
CT1 = CTq1 + E[Te (1)] = 2,125 h CT2 = CTq2 + E[Te (2)] = 5,80 h
CT3 = CTq3 + E[Te (3)] = 6,94 h
WIP1 = CT1 ⋅ λ a = 6,375 WIP2 = CT2 ⋅ λ a = 17,4
WIP3 = CT3 ⋅ λ a = 20,83
𝑐𝑑2 (1) 2 2 2 2
= 𝑢 ⋅ ce + (1- 𝑢 ) ⋅ 𝑐𝑎 = 2,68 = 𝑐𝑎2 2
𝑐𝑑2 (2) 2 2 2 2
= 𝑢 ⋅ ce + (1- 𝑢 ) ⋅ 𝑐𝑎 = 2,92 = 𝑐𝑎3 2

𝑪𝑻𝑻𝑶𝑻 = 𝟏𝟒, 𝟖𝟔𝟓

𝑾𝑰𝑷𝑻𝑶𝑻 = 𝟒𝟕
Exercise 2

● Find the system performance measures of CTs,

WIPs, and throughput for a three workstation pure
serial system
● The arrival rate to the system is one job every two
hours with an SCV of 2.0.
● The machine data for the three single-capacity
workstations are given below.
Exercise 2 – Solution (1)
𝐸[𝑇𝑎 ] = 2 h
𝑐𝑎 2 = 2
𝜆 𝑎 = 0,5 u/h WS1

E[Ts (2)] = 1,5 h. 𝑐𝑑2 (1) = 𝑢2 ⋅ ce 2 + (1- 𝑢2 ) ⋅ 𝑐𝑎 2 = 1,22

cs1 2 = 0,75 𝐶𝑇𝑞1 =

𝑐𝑎 2 +ce1 2 𝑢
⋅ 1−𝑢 ⋅ E[Te (1)] = 45,94 h
2
a = 0,85
𝐂𝐓𝟏 = 𝐂𝐓𝐪𝟏 + 𝐄[𝐓𝐞 (𝟏)] = 47,83 h
𝐸1 [𝑅] = 2ℎ
𝑾𝑰𝑷𝟏 = 𝐂𝐓𝟏 ⋅ 𝛌 𝐚 = 24
𝑐12 [𝑅] = 1,3

E[Ts (1)]
E[Te (1)] = = 1,88 h
𝑎

1+𝑐12 𝑅 𝑎⋅(1−𝑎)⋅𝐸1 [𝑅]

ce1 2 = cs1 2 + = 1,12
E[Ts (1)]

E[Te (1)]
𝑢1 = = 0,94
𝐸[𝑇𝑎 ]
Exercise 2 – Solution (2)
𝐸[𝑇𝑎 ] = 2 h
𝑐𝑎2 2 = 𝑐𝑑1 2 = 1,22
𝜆 𝑎 = 0,5 u/h WS2

E[Ts (1)] = 1,6 h. 𝑐𝑑2 (2) = 𝑢2 ⋅ ce 2 + (1- 𝑢2 ) ⋅ 𝑐𝑎 2 = 1,71

cs2 2 = 1,50 𝐶𝑇𝑞2 =

𝑐𝑎 2 +ce2 2 𝑢
⋅ 1−𝑢 ⋅ E[Te (2)] = 22,10 h
2
a = 0,90
𝐂𝐓𝟐 = 𝐂𝐓𝐪𝟐 + 𝐄[𝐓𝐞 (𝟐)] = 23,88 h
𝐸2 𝑅 = 2,5 ℎ
𝑾𝑰𝑷𝟐 = 𝐂𝐓𝟐 ⋅ 𝛌 𝐚 = 12
𝑐22 [𝑅] = 1,5

E[Ts (2)]
E[Te (2)] = = 1,78 h
𝑎

1+𝑐22 𝑅 𝑎⋅(1−𝑎)⋅𝐸2 [𝑅]

ce2 2 = cs2 2 + = 1,85
E[Ts (2)]

E[Te (1)]
𝑢1 = = 0,89
𝐸[𝑇𝑎 ]
Exercise 2 – Solution (3)
𝐸[𝑇𝑎 ] = 2 h
𝑐𝑎3 2 = 𝑐𝑑2 2 = 1,71
𝜆 𝑎 = 0,5 u/h WS3

E[Ts (3)] = 1,7 h.

𝑐𝑎 2 +ce3 2 𝑢
2
𝐶𝑇𝑞3 = 2
⋅ 1−𝑢 ⋅ E[Te (3)] = 35,26 h
cs3 = 2,00
𝐂𝐓𝟑 = 𝐂𝐓𝐪𝟑 + 𝐄[𝐓𝐞 (𝟑)] = 37,15 h
a = 0,90

𝐸3 𝑅 = 3,0 ℎ 𝑾𝑰𝑷𝟑 = 𝐂𝐓𝟑 ⋅ 𝛌 𝐚 = 19

𝑐32 [𝑅] = 1,75

E[Ts (3)]
E[Te (3)] = = 1,89 h
𝑎
𝑪𝑻𝑻𝑶𝑻 = 𝟏𝟎𝟖, 𝟖𝟔
2 2 1+𝑐32 𝑅 𝑎⋅(1−𝑎)⋅𝐸3 [𝑅] 𝑾𝑰𝑷𝑻𝑶𝑻 = 𝟓𝟓
ce3 = cs3 + = 2,436
E[Ts (3)]

E[Te (3)]
𝑢3 = = 0,945
𝐸[𝑇𝑎 ]
Exercise 3

• Items arrive with interarrival times E[Ta] = 21 min,

exponentially distributed
• Let’s consider the following stations:
 WSA: E[Ts(a)] = 20 min (exponentially distributed)
 WSB: E[Ts(b)] = 20 min, 𝜎𝑠 = 5
• The product X needs to be processed by both WSA
and WSB
• Having the possibility to choose the sequence, is it
better to put WSA before WSB or WSB before WSA
in the line?
• Motivate the answer by computing total CT and WIP
on the line in both cases
Exercise 3 – Solution (1)
M/M/1 M/G/1
𝑐𝑑 (𝑎) = 𝑐𝑎 (𝑏)
𝐸[𝑇𝑎 ] = 21 min
𝑐𝑎 2 = 1 WSA WSB
𝜆𝑑 (𝑎) = 𝜆𝑎 (𝑏)
1
𝜆 𝑎 =21 u/min
E[Te (a)] = 20 min E[Te (b)] = 20 min

ce 2 = 1 σe = 5

20 σ 5
u a = 21 = 0,952 ce = E[T e(b)] = 20 = 0,25
e

u 20
WIP(a) = 1−u = 19,8 u b = 21 = 0,952

WIP c2a+ ce 2 u
CT(a) = = 416 min CTq (b) = ⋅ 1−u ⋅ E[Te (b)] = 210 min
λa 2

CTq (a) = CT - E[Te (a)] = 396 min WIPq (b) = λ b ⋅ CTq (b) = 10

WIPq (a) = λ a ⋅ CTq (a) = 18,8 CT(b) = CTq (b) + E[Te (b)] = 230 min

cd2 (a) = u2 ⋅ ce 2 + (1- u2 ) ⋅ ca 2 = 1 WIP(b) = λ b ⋅ CT(b) = 10,95

𝑪𝑻𝑻𝑶𝑻 = 416 + 230 = 646 min

𝐖𝐈𝐏𝐓𝐎𝐓 = 𝟏𝟗, 𝟖 + 𝟏𝟎, 𝟗𝟓 = 𝟑𝟏
Exercise 3 – Solution (2)
M/G/1 G/M/1
𝐸[𝑇𝑎 ] = 21 min 𝑐𝑑 (𝑎) = 𝑐𝑎 (𝑏)
𝑐𝑎 2 = 1 WSB WSA
1
𝜆 𝑎 =21 u/min 𝜆𝑑 (𝑎) = 𝜆𝑎 (𝑏)
𝐸[𝑇𝑒 (𝑏)] = 20 min E[Te (a)] = 20 min

𝜎𝑒 = 5 ce 2 = 1
𝜎 5
𝑐𝑒 = 𝐸[𝑇 𝑒(𝑏)] = 20 = 0,25 20
u a = 21 = 0,952
𝑒

20 u
u 𝑏 = 21 = 0,952 WIP(a) = 1−u = 19,8

2 c 2 2 c 2
𝑐𝑎+ u
𝑐𝑎+ e u CTq (a) = e
⋅ ⋅ 𝐸[𝑇𝑒 (𝑎)] = 230 min
CTq (b) = ⋅ 1−u ⋅ 𝐸[𝑇𝑒 (𝑏)] = 210 min 2 1−u
2

WIPq (a) = 𝜆 𝑎 ⋅ CTq (a) = 11

WIPq (b) = 𝜆 𝑏 ⋅ CTq (b) = 10
CT(a) = CTq (a) + 𝐸[𝑇𝑒 (𝑎)] = 250 min
CT(b) = CTq (b) + 𝐸[𝑇𝑒 (𝑏)] = 230 min
WIP(b) = 𝜆 𝑎 ⋅ CT(a) = 12
WIP(b) = 𝜆 𝑏 ⋅ CT(b) = 10,95

𝑐𝑑2 (𝑎) = 𝑢2 ⋅ ce 2 + (1- 𝑢2 ) ⋅ 𝑐𝑎 2 = 0,15

𝑪𝑻𝑻𝑶𝑻 = 230 + 250 = 480 min

BETTER PERFORMANCE
𝐖𝐈𝐏𝐓𝐎𝐓 = 𝟏𝟎, 𝟗𝟓 + 𝟏𝟐 = 𝟐𝟑
Nonserial Network Models

● Many production systems have more than one inflow

point into the production system.
● Products that may have been found defective or that
have broken may be sent back to the manufacturing
facility to be reworked
 These units will not necessarily enter the production line at the same
point as a new job
 If a defect is found during inspection after partially completing
production, it may be sent to a rework station and then re-enter the
production sequence at the appropriate point
Nonserial Network Models

● To study factory structures that are more realistic than

pure serial systems, two additional structures must be
studied in order to compute the squared coefficients of
the various streams of jobs within the factory
1) merging of streams entering a workstation
2) splitting of output streams that come from a single
workstation but are routed to more than one
workstation
● These two processes, are firstly addressed separately,
and then combined for a general network model
Merging Inflow Streams

● When multiple inflow streams arrive at a workstation with differing

inter-arrival time distributions, the composite inter-arrival time
distribution parameters need be computed
● The process of merging inflow streams is technically called a
superposition of the individual inter-arrival processes
● It is assumed that the individual input streams are independent of
one another and that each has independent and identically
distributed inter-arrival times
 each of these input streams is said to be a renewal process
Merging Inflow Streams

● Consider an arrival stream that is formed by merging n individual

arrival processes
● The individual streams have mean arrival rates given by λi = 1/E[Ti]
and squared coefficients of variation denoted by C2i for i = 1,.., n
● The mean arrival rate, λa, and the squared coefficient of variation,
C2a, for a renewal process used to approximate the merged arrival
process are given by:
Example

● An automated lubricating facility is located in the center of a

manufacturing plant
● Arrivals of parts needing lubrication come from three sources:
manufactured parts needing assembly, defective parts that have
been disassembled and will be returned for reassembly, and parts
coming from a sister manufacturing facility in another part of the
town
● The three arrival streams have been analyzed separately
 The mean arrival rates for the three streams are given by the vector
(λ1,λ2,λ3) = (13.2/hr, 3.6/hr,6.0/hr)
 The squared coefficients of variation for the three inflow streams are
(C21, C22, C23) = (5.0, 3.0, 2.2)
● Find the inter-arrival time distribution parameters
Example

● The total inflow into the workstation is the sum of the individual
inflows so that λa = 22.8/hr
● The relative weights, 13.2/22.8, 3.6/22.8, and 6.0/22.8, are thus
used to determine the composite inflow stream’s squared
coefficient of variation as

● To compute the mean and standard deviation of the inter-arrival

times, remember that mean rates and mean times are reciprocals:
Exercise

● Find the inter-arrival time distribution parameters for the

following system:
Solution

λa = σ𝑛 λi = 1 + 3 = 4.

λi 1 3
𝑐𝑎2 = σ𝑛 ∙ ci = ∙ 1,365 + ∙ 2,095 = 1,91
λa 4 4
Splitting of Departure Stream

● Jobs that exit from a workstation can be transferred

to different workstations based on several
possibilities
 Multiple products can be made by specializing a partially
processed product
• the processing sequences can be identical through some steps, and
then the items are branched to their unique completion workstations or
sequence of workstations
 After a quality control test, good items continue their normal
route, while bad items are reworked or corrected at a
different workstation before continuing normal processing
Splitting of Departure Stream

● Consider a departure stream from a specified workstation with a

mean inter-departure time and coefficient of variation given by
E[Td] and C2d, respectively
● When a job departs from the specified workstation, there is a
probability, p, that the job will be routed to a target workstation
● If there are no other arriving streams to the target workstation, then
the mean inter-arrival time and squared coefficient of variation for
arrivals to target workstation are given by

or
Example

● The fifth workstation within a manufacturing facility performs a quality

control check on partially manufactured items
● Parts receive an unqualified pass from the inspector with probability 0.8
and they are then sent to Workstation 6 to continue the manufacturing
process
● Approximately 18% of the time, a part has a partial pass of the quality
check and is sent to Workstation 10 for rework
● And approximately 2% of the time, a part completely fails the test and is
sent to the hazardous waste station for disposal which is designated as
Workstation 99
● The throughput rate for Workstation 5 is 7 jobs per hour and the coefficient
of variation for the inter-departure times is 3

p=0.8 6 p=0.02
λ=7
5 99
C2d=3
p=0.18
10
Example

● The results are the following

 (as a check, the arrival rates can be summed and they must equal the
departure rate from the original stream before it was split)
Exercise

● Analyze the network reported in the figure and find the arrival
parameters at workstations 2, 3, and 4

=2 j/h
C2a =1

2
0.5 u2=0.8
C2s(2)= 1
1 4
λd(1)=6 j/h 0.5
C2d(1)=3
3
u3=0.8
C2s(3)= 1
Solution

● Workstations 2: merging of two input flows (one external and one

split from workstation 1) and computation of departure variability

=2 j/h
C2a =1
λ(2) = 2+3= 5 j/h

λ(1,2) = 0.5*6=3j/h 2 C2a (2) = 2/5 *1 + 3/5*2 = 1.6

Ca2(1,2)= 0.5*3+1-0,5=2 u2=0.8
C2s (2)= 1
0.5 C2d (2) = (1-0.82)*1.6 + 0.82*1 = 1.22
1
λd (1)=6 j/h
C2d(1)=3
Solution

● Workstations 3 analysis: only one flow split from workstation 2 and

departure variability computation

λ(3) = 3 j/h
λ(1,3) = 0.5*6=3j/h
Ca2(1,3)= 0.5*3+1-0,5=2
1 C2a (3) = 2
0.5
λd (1)=6 j/h 3 C2d (3) = (1-0.82)*2 + 0.82*1 = 1.36
C2d(1)=3
u3=0.8
C2s (3)= 1
Solution

● Workstations 4 analysis: merging two input flows

λ(2,4) = 5 j/h
2 Ca2(2,4)= C2d (2) = 1.22
λ(4) = 3+5 = 8 j/h

C2a (4) = 5/8 *1.22 + 3/8*1.36 = 1.27

4

3 λ(3,4) = 3 j/h
Ca2(3,4)= C2d (3) = 1.36
General Network Approximation Model

● To address a general factory network connection topology, the

possibilities of external flows into any one of the workstations must
be considered along with job branching for rework purposes,
splitting of the output from a workstation to different next
workstations, etc.
 Workstation inflows can come from a variety of sources, external as well as
other workstations within the factory, and this is handled by the flow merging
mechanism
 Probabilistic branching of workstation outflow requires departure stream
splitting mechanics
● Since there is no longer sequential flows, parameter dependencies
are also not sequential so that equations relating the parameters
will have to be solved simultaneously instead of sequentially
General Network Approximation Model

● With a non-serial network, determining the arrival stream

characteristics is more complicated than for the serial systems
● Since the flow rate into Workstation 1 is not known as yet, the
inflow into Workstation 2 cannot be computed directly
● The resolution requires that all of the flow rates are computed
simultaneously
● The problem can be solved by means of a system of linear
equations
General Network Approximation Model

● The parameters α ,β ,γ are all known data

● This linear system rearranged in terms of the unknowns on the left
side of the equality is

● The solution to this system can be written in matrix form as

General Network Approximation Model

● Consider a network consisting of workstations numbered from 1

to n
● The switching rule for the network is defined by an n×n matrix P
= (pi,j), where pi,j is the probability that an arbitrary job leaving
Workstation i will be routed directly to Workstation j
● The matrix P is called the routing matrix for the network
● Row i of the routing matrix consists of the probabilities relating
to the splitting of the outflow from Workstation i into the various
resultant successor Workstations j
● The jth column of the matrix represents the probabilities that jobs
leaving the various workstations go to Workstation j
General Network Approximation Model

● Define i as the external inflow rate and λi as the total inflow rate
into Workstation i
● The total rate into Workstation i must satisfy the following
equation:

● or in standard matrix form:

General Network Approximation Model

● Consider a general network of n workstations with switching rule

defined by the routing matrix P and assume that the sum of at least
one row of P is strictly less than one (i.e., jobs exit the network
from at least one workstation)
● Let γ = (γ1, ・ ・ ・ ,γn) denote a vector consisting of the mean
arrival rate of jobs from an external source to the workstations.
● Let λ = (λ1, ・ ・ ・ ,λn) be the unknown vector denoting mean
arrival rates of all jobs to the workstations
● The vector λ is given by

where I is an n×n identity matrix.

Example

● Consider the factory

network of workstations
depicted in the figure, with
the noted branching
probabilities and an
external flow rate into the
first workstation of 5 jobs
per hour.
● The system of equations
defining the workstation
total arrival rates are
Example

● This system rearranged is

● which has the unique solution

● Thus, the first workstation receives 5.690 jobs per hour; 5 of these
from the external source and the remaining 0.690 jobs from
Workstations 2 and 3
● The second workstation receives 4.267 jobs per hour, all of these
from Workstation 1
● The third workstation receives a total of 5.263 jobs per unit time as
the combined inflow from Workstations 1 and 2
Exercises

● Compute the mean flow rates for the systems illustrated in the two
figures
Solution (1)

λ1 = 10
3
λ2 = ∙ λ1 = 7,5
4
1
λ3 = λ2 + ∙ λ1 = 10
4
Solution (2)

1 1
λ1 = 10 + ∙ λ2 + ∙ λ3 = 16,67
3 5
3
λ2 = ∙ λ1 = 12,5
4
2 1
λ3 = ∙ λ2 + ∙ λ1 = 12,5
3 4
General Network Approximation Model

● To obtain the squared coefficients of variation for the composite

arrival stream into each workstation, a system of linear equations
relating all of these coefficients must be solved
 solution procedure is similar to obtaining the net inflow rates
 individual equations much more complex
● The inflow into a given workstation j is made up of the proportions
of the departure stream from those workstations that feed into j
along with any external stream that comes directly to j
Exercise

● Analyze the network reported in the figure and find the arrival
parameters at all the workstations

2=2 j/h
C2a (0,2)=1

2
0.5 u2=0.9
C2s(2)= 1
1=3 j/h
C2a (0,1)=1 1 3
0.5
u1=0.7
C2s(1)= 1
Solution

● Routing matrix

2 0 0.5 0.5
0.5 0 0 1
0 0 0
1 3
0.5
Solution

● Workstation 1
0 0.5 0.5

1=3 j/h
0 0 1
C2a (0,1)=1 1 0 0 0
u1=0.7
C2s(1)= 1

λ1 = 1 = 3 j/h

C2a (1) = 1 /λ1 * C2a (0,1) + 0 = 1

C2d (1) = 1
Solution

● Workstation 2
0 0.5 0.5
2=2 j/h
C2a (0,2)=1 0 0 1
0 0 0
2
1 0.5
u3=0.9
λ1=3 j/h C2s(2)= 1
C2d (1)=1

λ2 = 2 + 0.5* λ1 = 2+0.5*3= 3.5 j/h

C2a (2) = 2 /λ2 * C2a (0,2) + λ1 p12 / λ2 (p12 C2d (1) +1 – p12) =

2/3.5*1 + 3*0.5/3.5 * (0.5*1+1-0.5) = 1

C2d (2) = 1
Solution

● Workstation 3
0 0.5 0.5
λ2=3.5 j/h
C2d (2)=1 0 0 1
2 0 0 0

1 0.5
3
λ1=3 j/h
C2d (1)=1

λ3 = 0.5* λ1 + λ2 = 0.5*3 + 3.5= 5 j/h

C2a (3) = λ1 p13 / λ3 (p13* C2d (1) +1 – p13) + λ2 p23 / λ3 (p23* C2d (2) +1 – p23) =

3*0.5/5* (0.5*1+1-0.5) + 3.5/5 * 1 = 1

General Network Approximation Model

● To analyze a general network, the mean arrival rate into each

workstation is first determined
● Then workstation utilization factors are calculated since these
depend on the just computed arrival rates
● Finally the squared coefficients of variation for the arrival
streams are computed either by a successive substitution
iteration or by finding the inverse matrix
● At this point, the network can be decomposed and each
workstation treated individually
● Finally, these results are combined to estimate the performance
characteristics of the system as a whole
Example

● Consider a factory that consists entirely of single-server

workstations with service time data for each workstation given
in the Table
● The arrivals from an external source enter into the factory at the
first workstation, and the arrivals are exponentially distributed
with a mean rate of 5 jobs per hour
● The topology of the factory is shown in the figure
● Find the mean cycle time for jobs, the factory inventory levels,
and the workloads of each workstation
Step 1: Workstation Arrival Rates

● The first goal is to obtain the composite inflow rate into each
workstation
Step 2: Workstation utilizations

● The workload to each workstation is the mean job arrival rate

multiplied by the mean processing time per job which then
equals the utilization factor
Step 3: Squared Coefficients of Variation

● Squared coefficients of variations of the job inter-arrival times

for each workstation
Step 3: Squared Coefficients of Variation

● Simplified system and solution

Step 4: Decomposition

● With the determination of arrival rates and squared coefficients

of variation, each workstation is analyzed as if it were an
isolated workstation
Step 5: Factory Performance Measures

● The factory throughput rate is equal to the inflow rate

 THs = 5/hr
● The work in process for the whole factory is the sum
of the individual workstation work in process numbers
 WIPs = 31.03
● Little’s Law yields the mean cycle time
 CTs = 31.03/5= 6.206 hr
 Notice that CTs is greater than the sum of the individual
workstation cycle times because most jobs visit some of the
workstations more than once
Exercise

● Consider a factory that consists of three single-server

workstations with service time data reported in the table
● The arrivals from an external source have a mean rate of 10
jobs per hour and a squared coefficient of variation of 1.5
● The topology is shown in the figure
● Compute the system performance measures of throughput,
cycle time and work in process for this network.
Solution

λ1 = 10 u1 = 10 ∙ 0.086 =0.86
3
λ2 = 4 ∙ λ1 = 7.5 u2 = 7.5 ∙ 0.11 = 0.825
1 u3 = 10 ∙ 0.08 = 0.8
λ3 = λ2 + 4 ∙ λ1 = 10

2
𝑐𝑎1 = 1.5
2 3 2 3 3 3
𝑐𝑎2 = 4 ∙ 𝑐𝑑1 +1−4 = ∙ ((1 − 𝑢12 ) ∙ 𝑐𝑎1
2
+ 𝑢12 ∙ 𝑐𝑠1
2
) + 1 − 4 = 1.293
4
2 1 10 1 2 1 7,5 2
𝑐𝑎3 = 4 ∙ 10 ∙ (4 ∙ 𝑐𝑑1 + 1 − 4) + 1 ∙ ∙ 𝑐𝑑2 = 1.006
10
𝐖𝐈𝐏𝑻𝑶𝑻 = 𝟏𝟖. 𝟐𝟓𝟒
c2a+ ce 2 u
CT1 = ⋅ ⋅ E[Ts (1)] + E[Ts (1)] = 0.8394 h
2 1−u 𝐖𝐈𝐏𝐓𝐎𝐓
WIP1 = CT1 ⋅ λ 1 = 8.394 𝐂𝐓𝑻𝑶𝑻 = = 𝟏. 𝟖𝟐𝟓
𝐓𝐇

c2 c 2 u
CT2 = a+2 e ⋅ 1−u ⋅ E[Ts (2)] + E[Ts (2)] = 0.66 h
WIP2 = CT2 ⋅ λ 2 = 4.95

c2 c 2 u
CT3 = a+2 e ⋅ 1−u ⋅ E[Ts (3)] + E[Ts (3)] = 0.491 h
WIP3 = CT3 ⋅ λ 3 = 4.91