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MSBME Lab Task Lab8

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9 views

MSBME Lab Task Lab8

Uploaded by

laibakhaliq492
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Lab # 08

Object:
To simulate a deterministic SIR model for cholera, a specific infectious disease.

Theory:

The SIR model (Susceptible, Infectious, Recovered) is a fundamental compartmental model in


epidemiology. It helps predict the spread of diseases, estimate the number of infected individuals over
time, and evaluate the impact of public health interventions.

Cholera is an acute diarrheal illness caused by infection of the intestine with the bacterium Vibrio
cholerae. People can get sick when they swallow food or water contaminated with cholera bacteria. The
infection is often mild or without symptoms, but can sometimes be severe and life-threatening.

The SIR model:

The SIR model consists of three compartments:

S: Susceptible individuals – Susceptible individuals who can contract the disease.

I: Infectious individuals – Infectious individuals who have contracted the disease and can
spread it to susceptible individuals.

R: Recovered individuals – individuals who have either recovered and gained immunity or died.

Equations of the SIR Model:

The SIR model is governed by a system of ordinary differential equations (ODEs):

1. Susceptible (S):

ds
=¿ μN−βSI−µS
dt

where:

o μN is the birth rate.


o βSI is the rate at which susceptible individuals get infected.
o μS is the natural death rate of susceptible individuals.
2. Infectious (I):

dI
= βSI−γI−μI
dt

where:

o βSI is the rate at which susceptible individuals become infected.


o γI is the rate at which infectious individuals recover.
o μI is the natural death rate of infectious individuals.

3. Recovered (R):

dR
=γI−μR
dt

where:

o γI is the rate at which infectious individuals recover.


o μR is the natural death rate of recovered individuals.

Parameters:

 μ: Per capita death rate and the population-level birth rate.


 β: Transmission rate.
 γ: Recovery rate (1/γ is the average infectious period).
 S(0): Initial proportion of susceptible individuals.
 I(0): Initial proportion of infectious individuals.

Model Assumptions:

 The population is constant (birth rate equals death rate).


 The disease transmission is direct.
 The host population is well-mixed.
 No delay between infection and becoming infectious.
 The model does not account for asymptomatic carriers separately.
MATLAB Source Code:
% Parameters for Cholera
beta = 0.4; % Transmission rate (assumed)
gamma = 1 / 5.0; % Recovery rate, average infectious period of 5 days
mu = 1 / (70 * 365.0); % Assuming an average lifespan of 70 years

% Initial conditions
S0 = 0.99; % 99% of the population is initially susceptible
I0 = 0.01; % 1% of the population is initially infectious
R0 = 0; % No one has recovered initially
MaxTime = 365; % Simulation for 1 year

% Initial populations
S = S0;
I = I0;
R = R0;

% ODE solver options


options = odeset('RelTol', 1e-5);

% Solve the ODEs


[t, pop] = ode45(@eqsOfSIRModel, [0 MaxTime], [S I R], options, [beta gamma mu]);

% Extract populations
S = pop(:, 1);
I = pop(:, 2);
R = pop(:, 3);

% Plot results
figure;

subplot(3, 1, 1);
plot(t, S, '-g');
xlabel('Time (days)');
ylabel('Susceptibles');

subplot(3, 1, 2);
plot(t, I, '-r');
xlabel('Time (days)');
ylabel('Infectious');

subplot(3, 1, 3);
plot(t, R, '-b');
xlabel('Time (days)');
ylabel('Recovered');

function dPop = eqsOfSIRModel(t, pop, parameter)


beta = parameter(1);
gamma = parameter(2);
mu = parameter(3);

S = pop(1);
I = pop(2);
R = pop(3);

dPop = zeros(3, 1);


dPop(1) = mu - beta * S * I - mu * S; % dS/dt
dPop(2) = beta * S * I - gamma * I - mu * I; % dI/dt
dPop(3) = gamma * I - mu * R; % dR/dt
end
Result:

Interpret the plots to understand the epidemic's progression. Identify the peak of the infection, the total
number of recovered individuals, and the impact of transmission and recovery rates on the epidemic's
duration and intensity.This setup provides a comprehensive guide to modeling cholera using the SIR
model, complete with equations, explanations, and MATLAB code.

Flow Diagram:

µN
µ

Susceptible, S

βI/N
µ
Infected, I

γ
µ
Recovered, R

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