Initiating Coverage | 7 March 2017

Sector: Logistics

Aegis Logistics

The Giant Kelp

Abhinil Dahiwale - Research Analyst ([email protected]); +91 22 3980 4309
Swarnendu Bhushan - Research Analyst ([email protected]); +91 22 6129 1529
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
 Aegis Logistics

Contents: Aegis Logistics | The Giant Kelp

Summary ............................................................................................................. 3

India’s secular LPG consumption growth story ...................................................... 7

All the way up for the LPG segment! ................................................................... 11

Liquids division remains a cash cow .................................................................... 16

Valuation and view............................................................................................. 19

Bull & Bear case ................................................................................................. 22

SWOT analysis .................................................................................................... 24

Company background ......................................................................................... 25

Financials and Valuations ................................................................................... 28

7 March 2018 2
 Initiating Coverage | Sector: Logistics

Aegis Logistics
BSE Sensex S&P CNX
33,033 10,154 CMP: INR229 TP: INR303 (+32%) Buy

Aegis Logistics (AGIS) is India’s leading oil, gas and chemical logistics company. It
primarily operates under two businesses: Gas and Liquids. The company operates three
gas terminals and six liquid terminals across the country. It is engaged in the handling of
oil & LPG products, as well as the sourcing, retailing and distribution of LPG.
Stock Info
Bloomberg AGIS IN The Giant Kelp
Equity Shares (m) 334.0
52-Week Range (INR) 300 / 170 Attractive play on India’s rising LPG consumption; Initiating coverage with
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%) -9/2/2 Buy
M.Cap. (INR b) 76.2
M.Cap. (USD b) 1.2  Given the various promising perspectives in AGIS’ journey, we liken it to the Giant
Avg Val, INRm 104.0 Kelp – one of the fastest growing organisms in the world and found in the waters of
Free float (%) 39.5 the Americas, South Africa, New Zealand and Southern Australia.
Financial Snapshot (INR b)  The company’s market cap has already grown ~25x over the last decade. However,
Y/E Mar 2018E 2019E 2020E we continue believing in AGIS’ structural growth story with a clear focus and strong
Net Sales 47.7 69.1 89.3 execution in a niche market. Thus, we see further upside potential led by its
EBITDA 3.0 4.8 6.0 planned expansions.
NP 2.2 3.3 4.2
 Over FY17-20, we expect AGIS to witness LPG throughput CAGR of 51%, much
EPS (INR) 6.5 9.7 12.5
higher than India’s estimated LPG import CAGR of 22%. Gas division EBITDA is
EPS Gr.% 80.4 50.1 28.0
BV/Share 23.1 30.6 40.3
expected to grow at 41% CAGR over FY17-20.
P/E (x) 35.1 23.4 18.3  For AGIS, we expect liquids throughput CAGR of 16% over FY17-20. Liquids division
P/BV (x) 9.9 7.4 5.7 EBITDA CAGR is estimated at 22% over the same period.
RoE (x) 31.6 36.3 35.2  EBITDA/EPS is expected to grow at 42%/51% CAGR over FY17-20E. We value AGIS
RoCE (x) 25.4 30.6 31.5 using DCF at INR303/share, implying 32% upside. We initiate coverage with a Buy
EV/EBITDA (x) 25.8 15.6 12.0 rating.
EV/Sales (x) 1.6 1.1 0.8

Shareholding pattern (%) India’s secular LPG consumption growth story

As On Dec-17 Sep-17 Dec-16  For years, India has aimed to promote an alternative for cheaper but dirtier
Promoter 60.5 60.5 61.5 cooking fuels. Post 2014, favorable macros have enabled the Indian
DII 2.8 2.7 3.6
government to increase the penetration of LPG through various schemes. This
FII 11.3 12.0 12.5
Others 25.5 24.8 22.4
resulted in higher LPG consumption CAGR of 10% over FY14-17 compared to
FII Includes depository receipts 7% over FY07-14. We estimate LPG consumption CAGR of 15% over FY17-20,
led by 17% CAGR in new household LPG connections over the same period.
India's LPG penetration increased to ~78% in October 2017 from less than
Aegis Logistics 
60% in January 2016. Region-wise, LPG penetration for southern and northern
The Giant Kelp India stands at more than 88%, while that in western and eastern India (the
focus areas of AGIS) lags behind at 72% and 60%, respectively.
 We expect LPG import CAGR of 22% over FY17-20, as domestic production
continues to lag demand.

+91 22 3980 4309

[email protected]
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7 March 2018 3
 Aegis Logistics

Stock Performance (1-year) All the way up for the LPG segment!
 AGIS is a fully integrated player in the LPG logistics chain, with operations
ranging from sourcing, shipping, terminals and distribution across the industrial,
commercial and auto gas segments.
 AGIS, the largest private importer, is expected to be the biggest beneficiary of
rising LPG imports in the country. It operates three LPG terminals at key ports in
India, with a static capacity of ~63kmt and a throughput capacity of 5mmtpa
(45% of total import in FY17). Ramp-up of the recently commissioned Haldia and
Pipavav terminals would result in 51% CAGR in LPG throughput over FY17-20E.
 We expect LPG logistics EBITDA CAGR of 62% over FY17-20. Sourcing and
Retailing & Distribution EBITDA CAGR are estimated at 2% and 21%,
respectively, over FY17-20. Thus, we expect Gas division EBITDA CAGR of 41%
over the same period.

Liquids division remains a cash cow

 AGIS is also a leading liquid terminal operator, providing a complete range of
services like shipping, O&M and logistics. The company operates four liquids
terminals which are strategically located at the Mumbai, Pipavav, Kochi and
Haldia ports, with total capacity of 529,310 KL.
 Locational advantage and strong customer relationships have enabled higher
utilization for the Mumbai, Kochi and Pipavav ports. These liquids terminals are
well connected to major refineries and petrochemical companies through
pipelines, with the oil marketing companies (OMCs) being the major clients.
 Ramp-up of the Hadia terminal (brownfield expansion), and commissioning of
the Kandla (100,000kl greenfield, 4QFY18) and Mangalore (25,000kl greenfield,
1QFY19) terminals are expected to drive the next leg of growth for the liquids
division. We expect liquids throughput CAGR of 16% over FY17-20, led by
capacity expansion and higher utilization. Liquids division EBITDA CAGR is
estimated at 22% during the same period.

Initiating coverage with Buy

 Increased focus on penetration of LPG, combined with the widening demand-
supply gap, is expected to support volume growth for AGIS. Over FY17-20, we
expect CAGR of 42% in EBITDA and 51% in EPS, led by debt repayment.
 With major capex behind, we expect strong free cash flow generation of INR10b
over FY18-20. RoE/RoCE is expected to improve sharply from 22%/19% in FY17
to 35%/31% in FY20.
 While management is expected to announce a new gas terminal in the coming
days, we are not factoring in capacity expansion until FY20E in our numbers.
Further capacity expansion before FY20 can pose an upside risk to our earnings
estimates.
 We value AGIS using the DCF methodology, with WACC of 11% and terminal
growth of 3.5%, to arrive at a fair value of INR303/share, implying 32% upside.
The stock trades at 18.3x FY20E EPS of INR12.5 and 12x FY20E EV/EBITDA. We
initiate coverage on AGIS with a Buy rating.

7 March 2018 4
Aegis Logistics – A play on India’s LPG consumption Aegis Logistics

Low LPG penetration level in the eastern and western India offers huge growth potential for AGIS

Slower domestic LPG production would increase LPG import share going ahead; expect LPG imports to grow at 22% CAGR over
FY17-20E

LPG consumption (mmtpa) LPG Import (mmtpa) Import as % of consumption

61% 64%
57% 59%
51% 50%
46% 46%
38% 40% 40% 39
36
31% 33
24% 29
21% 20% 21% 26
22 23 23
20 20
16 18 17
14 15 16
12 12 13 13
11 2 3 2 3 4 6 6 7 8 9 11
FY07

FY08

FY09

FY10

FY11

FY12

FY13

FY14

FY15

FY16

FY17

FY18E

FY19E

FY20E

FY21E

FY22E

We expect throughput to grow at 51% CAGR over FY17-20, AGIS to gain market share led by commissioning of Haldia
led by ramp-up of Haldia and Pipavav terminal terminal and ramp-up of Pipavav terminal

Mumbai Pipavav Haldia Total throughput LPG Import (mmtpa)

4.6 AGIS - Throughput (mmtpa)
Aegis market share (%)
3.7
2.1 22% 23%
2.7 21%
1.4
0.5 12%
1.3 11%
1.1 1.3 1.4 8%
0.8 -
-0.3 0.6
0.7 1.1 1.1 1.1 8 0.6 9 1.0 11 1.3 13 2.7 17 3.7 20 4.6
0.5
FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E
7 March 2018 5
 Aegis Logistics

Story in charts

Exhibit 1: AGIS’ LPG terminal division to contribute ~70% of Exhibit 2: India’s LPG consumption rate has increased post
total EBITDA FY14; expect a 15% CAGR over FY17-20

Segment-wise - EBITDA Breakup (%) LPG Liquids LPG consumption (mmtpa)

31 30 27 33
39 46 37
58 53 28
25
22
18 20
73 15 16 16
61 63 69 70
12 12 13 14
47 54 11
42

FY07
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY17
FY18E
FY19E
FY20E
FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E

Source: Company, MOSL Source: PPAC, MOSL

Exhibit 3: We expect throughput CAGR of 51% over FY17-20, Exhibit 4: LPG division EBITDA to grow at 41% CAGR over
led by ramp-up of Haldia and Pipavav terminals FY17-20E led by logistics segment (INRb)
Mumbai Pipavav Haldia Total throughput Sourcing Retailing & Distribution
Logistics LPG EBITDA (INRb)
4.6
3.7 4.3

2.7 2.1 3.3

1.4
0.5 2.2
3.2
1.3 1.6 2.4
1.1 1.3 1.4 1.2
0.8 - 1.5
0.6 0.6 0.8
-
0.3 1.1 1.1 1.1 0.3 0.5 0.6
0.5 0.7 0.4 0.4
0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.5
FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E
Source: Company, MOSL Source: Company, MOSL

Exhibit 5: Liquid throughput to grow at 16% CAGR over Exhibit 6: Liquid division EBITDA to grow at 22% CAGR over
FY17-20 led by capacity expansion and higher utilization FY17-20E (INR b)
Mumbai Kochi
Haldia Pipavav
Kandla Mangalore
651
598
24
439 19 95
420 80
75 100
- 25 15 1.6
96 75 100 108 1.4
-
51 51 51 51 1.0 1.0 0.9 1.0
273 273 273 273

FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E

FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E
Source: Company, MOSL Source: Company, MOSL

7 March 2018 6
 Aegis Logistics

India’s secular LPG consumption growth story

Domestic production shortage to result in higher imports

 Post 2014, favorable macros have enabled the Indian government to increase the
penetration of LPG through various schemes, replacing the usage of cheaper but
dirtier cooking fuels. This resulted in higher LPG consumption CAGR of 10% over FY14-
17 compared to 7% over FY07-14. We expect LPG consumption CAGR of 15% over
FY17-20, led by 17% CAGR in the number of LPG customer households during the same
period.
 India's LPG penetration increased to ~78% in October 2017 from less than 60% in
January 2016. LPG penetration for southern and northern India stands at more than
88%, while that in western and eastern India (the focus areas of AGIS) lags behind at
72% and 59%, respectively.
 We expect LPG import CAGR of 22% over FY17-20, as domestic production continues
to lag demand.

Government thrust on LPG consumption

 India has always promoted LPG as a cooking fuel by taking multiple policy
initiatives. However, a sharp decline in LPG prices enabled the current
government to aggressively promote LPG as cooking fuel post 2014.
 The new government successfully launched the Ujjwala scheme to increase LPG
penetration. By 2020, the government intends to increase LPG penetration in
the country to 95% from the current level of 78%.

Exhibit 7: Government’s focus to deepen the usage of LPG is visible in various initiatives taken
Year Government policies/schemes Description
Rajiv Gandhi Gramin LPG Vitaran Yojana  To set up small-size LPG distribution agencies
2009
(RGGLV)  Provided one-time financial assistance to the BPL category for new LPG connection
 Free gas connections, along with LPG filled cylinders, two burner gas stove,
regulator and Suraksha (safety) pipe were issued to the Jhuggi Ration Card (JRC),
2012 Kerosene Free Delhi
Below Poverty Line (BPL) and Antodaya Ann Yojana (AAY) Ration Card holders who
were using kerosene oil for cooking
 Government introduced a well-targeted system of subsidy delivery to LPG
consumers through PAHAL (Direct Benefit Transfer) scheme
 It was aimed at rationalizing subsidies based on approach to cut subsidy leakages,
PAHAL (DBTL) but not subsidies themselves
2013
 Applicable subsidy is directly transferred into the bank account of the beneficiaries
 PAHAL has helped in identifying ‘ghost’ accounts, multiple accounts and inactive
accounts. This has helped in curbing diversion of subsidized LPG for commercial
purposes

 As a part of subsidy management, Prime Minister gave call to well-off LPG

GiveItUp Campaign consumers to voluntarily surrender their subsidy by launching ‘GiveItUp’ campaign
2016
 GiveItUp campaign has evoked huge response from socially committed individuals,
and resulted in more than 1.05 crore consumers giving up their subsidy voluntarily

Unified Guidelines for Selection of  Under this scheme, all Indian citizens, including unemployed youth, are eligible for
2016
LPG Distributorships 2016 applying for LPG distributorships
 The Government has launched “Pradhan Mantri Ujjwala Yojana”(PMUY) for
Pradhan Mantri Ujjwala providing LPG connections to 5 crore women belonging to the Below Poverty Line
2016 Yojana (BPL) families over a period of 3 years starting from FY17
(PMUY)  Objective of the scheme is to provide clean cooking fuel solution to poor
households, especially in rural areas
Source: PPAC, MOSL

7 March 2018 7
 Aegis Logistics

 To achieve its aim of 95% LPG penetration, the government, in our view, needs
to add 140m new household connections, resulting in incremental LPG
consumption of 11mmt over FY17-20, ~53% of total consumption in FY17.
 Government’s various initiatives to (i) increase LPG penetration in areas/states
where the usage is low, and (ii) popularize LPG as a medium of cooking have
been extremely successful. It has surpassed its target of achieving 160m
connections in FY15 (as mentioned in the ‘Vision – 2015’ document published
on June 2009). Hence, we believe that the target of increasing the penetration
to 95% by 2020 is achievable.
 India’s LPG consumption increased to 22mmtpa in FY17 v/s 16mmtpa in FY14,
growing at a 10% CAGR. LPG consumption over FY14-17 grew at a higher rate
than over FY07-14. Households consume ~90% of the country’s total LPG – a
preferred fuel for cooking.
 LPG penetration level has been rising rapidly across country; ~15m LPG
connections have been added in the first half of FY18. LPG penetration level
increased to ~78% in September 2017 from ~60% in January 2016 and ~58% in
June 2015. We believe that higher penetration of 95% would result in 15% LPG
consumption CAGR over FY17-20E.

Exhibit 8: LPG coverage at the start of FY18 Exhibit 9: LPG coverage at the end of 1HFY18
Estimated house-holds (m) Active connections (m) Estimated house-holds (m) Active connections (m)
LPG coverage (%) LPG coverage (%) 93
85 88 88
78
73 72
68
60
48 52 52

72 61 10 5 61 32 63 43 65 58 273 199 73 64 10 5 62 37 64 46 66 61 275 214

North North East East West South India North North East East West South India
Source: PPAC, MOSL Source: PPAC, MOSL

Exhibit 10: LPG customer households to grow at 17% CAGR Exhibit 11: LPG consumption to grow at 15% over FY17-20
over FY17-20 to reach 95% penetration level led by increase in customer households

LPG customer households (m) LPG consumption (mmtpa)

90% of LPG consumption is in

households 377 33
331 29
289 26
237 22
204 18 20
168 184 14 15 16 16
139 152 13
116 127 11 12 12
95 102 107
FY07
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY17
FY18E
FY19E
FY20E

FY07
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY17
FY18E
FY19E
FY20E

Source: PPAC, MOSL Source: PPAC, MOSL

7 March 2018 8
 Aegis Logistics

AGIS’ strategic presence offers huge potential

 LPG penetration level has improved across regions. While southern and
northern India have impressive penetration levels, western and eastern India
have lagged in this regard.
 We believe lower LPG penetration level in western and eastern India is
indicative of high untapped demand for this fuel. Eastern states like Odisha,
Jharkhand and Bihar, and western states like Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and
Gujarat, are expected to witness higher LPG consumption growth going ahead.

Exhibit 12: Due to low penetration level, eastern and western India to witness higher growth in LPG consumption

www.indzara.com
Active connections (m)
FY17 1HFY18 Change (%) Active connections (m)
Jammu FY17 1HFY18 Change (%)
5%
and Active connections (m) 9%
Kashmir FY17 1HFY18 Change (%)
17%

61 64 Himachal
Pradesh 5 5
North
P unjab Chandigarh North East
Uttarakhand 32 37

Haryana East
Arunachal
P radesh
Del hi
Sikkim

Rajasthan Uttar Pradesh Assam

Nagaland
Bihar Meghalaya
Manipur
Tripura
Jharkhand Mizoram
West
Gujarat Madhya Pradesh Bengal

Daman
and Diu Odisha
Dadra and
Nagar Haveli

Active connections (m) Maharashtra

FY17 1HFY18 Change (%)
Telangana Bay
7%
of
Bengal Active connections (m)
FY17 1HFY18 Change (%)
Goa
Arabian Andhra 8%
43 46
Sea Pradesh
West Andaman
and
199Nicobar214
Islands
P uducherry
Active connections (m)
Lakshadweep India
FY17 1HFY18 Change (%)
Tamil Nadu
Colour Gradient
6% Lowest (Red) to Highest (Green)

58 61

South Indian Ocean Map not to scale

st
*Data as on 31 March 2017 Source: PPAC, MOSL

7 March 2018 9
 Aegis Logistics

Domestic production shortage to result in higher imports

 India’s dependency on LPG imports has been rising consistently due to domestic
LPG production not rising at the same pace. Share of imports has risen to 51% in
FY17 from 40% in FY14.
 Even in a very optimistic scenario, refining capacity may only rise from
234mmtpa in FY17 to 325mmtpa by FY22. However, with LPG yield being
inherently low, we expect domestic LPG production to grow at meager ~4%
CAGR v/s consumption CAGR of 15%, implying 22% CAGR in LPG imports over
FY17-20E.

Exhibit 13: Domestic LPG production to grow at ~4% CAGR over FY17-20E

Refinery throughput (mmtpa) LPG production (mmtpa) Mega Mumbai

Paradip, Bhatinda and refienry to add
Kochi refinery to add Binda to add Vizag to add 60mmt in FY22
23.5mmt in FY18 1.8mmt in FY19 6mmt in FY21
16
13 13 13 13
11 11
10

223 233 245 268 259 259 265 325

FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E FY21E FY22E

Note: Assumed 100% refinery utilization for FY19-23 Source: PPAC, MOSL

Exhibit 14: Slower domestic LPG production would increase LPG import share going ahead; expect LPG imports to grow at
22% CAGR over FY17-20E

LPG consumption (mmtpa) LPG Import (mmtpa) Import as % of consumption

61% 64%
57% 59%
51% 50%
46% 46%
40% 40% 39
38% 36
31% 33
29
21% 24% 26
20% 21% 23 23
20 22 20
16 18 17
14 15 16
12 12 13 13
11 11
2 3 2 3 4 6 6 7 8 9

FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E FY21E FY22E
Source: PPAC, MOSL

7 March 2018 10
 Aegis Logistics

All the way up for the LPG segment!

Ramp-up of Haldia and Pipavav terminals to drive throughput

 AGIS is a fully integrated player in the LPG logistics chain, with operations ranging
from sourcing, shipping, terminals and distribution across the industrial, commercial
and auto gas segments.
 AGIS, the largest private importer, is expected to be the biggest beneficiary of rising
LPG imports in the country. It operates three LPG terminals at key ports in India, with
static capacity of ~63kmt and throughput capacity of 5mmtpa (45% of total import in
FY17). Ramp-up of the recently commissioned Haldia and Pipavav terminals would
result in 51% CAGR in LPG throughput over FY17-20E.
 We expect LPG logistics EBITDA CAGR of 62% over FY17-20. Sourcing and Retailing &
Distribution EBITDA CAGR is estimated at 2% and 21%, respectively, over FY17-20.
Thus, Gas division EBITDA is expected to grow at 41% CAGR over the same period.

Exhibit 15: AGIS to be the biggest beneficiary of rising LPG imports as it captures the complete LPG value chain

Source: Company, MOSL

Well placed to benefit from rising LPG imports

 Apart from LPG, AGIS also deals with relatively small volume of propane (both
combined being termed as the gas division). The contribution of gas division to
total EBITDA rose to 63% in FY17 from 42% in FY14.
 The logistics segment was the highest contributor (~67%) of the gas division’s
EBITDA in FY17, followed by sourcing (18%) and retail & distribution (14%).

7 March 2018 11
 Aegis Logistics

Exhibit 16: Gas division share has increased rapidly over last Exhibit 17: Logistics segment is a major contributor to the
four years; it contributed 63% of AGIS’ EBITDA in FY17 gas division's EBITDA; ~67% in FY17

AGIS - EBITDA Breakup (%) LPG Liquids Gas Division - EBITDA Breakup (%)

Sourcing,
39 39 46 37 18
50 52 58 53

Retailing &
61 61 54 63 Distribution
50 48 42 47 , 14

FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 Logistics, 67

Source: Company, MOSL Source: Company, MOSL

Gas logistics offers 51% volume CAGR over FY17-20

 AGIS is one of the largest private sector players in the LPG logistics (terminal)
business. The company derives revenue through throughput fees, handling and
value-addition services for providing terminalling activity. It operates three gas
terminals located at Mumbai, Pipavav and Haldia, with a static capacity of
~63kmt and throughput capacity of 5mmtpa.
 Mumbai has a static capacity of 2x10kmt, one tank is used for LPG storage and
the other one for supplying propane to Reliance Industries. Throughput capacity
stands at 1.1mmtpa. Pipavav has a static capacity of 18.3kmt post expansion in
1QFY18 and a throughput capacity of 1.4mmtpa. The recently commissioned
INR2.5b greenfield Haldia LPG terminal has a static capacity of 25kmt and a
throughput capacity of 2.5mmtpa.

Exhibit 19: AGIS has three LPG terminals at key major ports
Exhibit 18: Gas terminal on key ports in India in India with static capacity of ~63,000mt (‘000mt)

Mumbai Pipavav Haldia Total capacity

63 63 63

25 25 25

25 28
Pipavav Haldia 18 18 18
5 8
Mumbai

20 20 20 20 20

FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E

Source: Company, MOSL Source: Company, MOSL

 Evacuation infrastructure defines throughput capacity: Throughput capacity of

a gas terminal, depending upon the pace of the evacuation, can range from 25x -
100x of the static capacity. AGIS’ throughput capacity stood at 46x of static
capacity in FY17. Pipeline is the fastest way of evacuation, and pipeline
connectivity can exponentially increase the throughput capacity of the gas
terminal.

7 March 2018 12
 Aegis Logistics

Exhibit 20: Throughput depends on the pace of evacuation; AGIS has a throughput capacity
of 5mmtpa (mmtpa)

Mumbai Pipavav Haldia Total capacity

5.0 5.0 5.0

2.5 2.5 2.5

1.3
0.8 1.4 1.4 1.4
0.6
0.3 0.7 1.1 1.1 1.1
0.5
FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E
Source: Company, MOSL

Ramp-up of Haldia and Pipavav terminals to drive throughput

 AGIS commissioned its INR2.5b greenfield Haldia terminal with static capacity of
25kmt in September 2017. Throughput capacity stands at 2.5mmtpa. Lower LPG
penetration and limited competition in the eastern region should help the
Haldia terminal to ramp up exponentially, in our view. We expect the terminal
to achieve 100% utilization in FY20.

Exhibit 21: Haldia stands to benefit from lower LPG terminal Exhibit 22: Haldia terminal to witness higher utilization level
capacity in eastern region due to low LPG coverage in eastern India
Company Ports Static capacity ('000 mt)
Estimated house-holds (m) Active connections (m)
AGIS Mumbai 20
LPG coverage (%) 93
AGIS Pipavav 18 88
IOCL Kandla 30 78
BPCL JNPT 16 72
Reliance Sikka 30 60
52
GCPTCL Dahej 30
West 144
AGIS Haldia 25
IPPL Haldia 32
East 57 73 64 10 5 62 37 64 46 66 61 275 214
HPCL, TOTAL Mangalore 17
SALPG, EIPL Vizag 60 North North East East West South India
IPPL Ennore 30
SHV Tuticorin 8 Source: PPAC, MOSL
SHV Porbandar 8
South 123
Source: IOCL, MOSL

 Pipavav to ramp-up gradually: AGIS’ brownfield capacity expansion from

8.1kmt to 18.3kmt at the Pipavav LPG terminal was completed in 1QFY18.
Throughput capacity is expected to rise to 1.4mmtpa from 0.6mmtpa. We
expect the Pipavav LPG terminal to reach full utilization by FY20, based on
existing and new customer relationships.
 Mumbai to expand its throughput capacity: HPCL is expected to complete its
existing Uran-Chakan LPG pipeline by Mar’18. AGIS’s Mumbai LPG terminal is
already connected to Uran LPG pipeline. Post completion of the Uran-Chakan
leg by HPCL, the Mumbai LPG terminal’s throughput capacity would increase to
1.5mmtpa from 1.1mmtpa, according to the company. We are not factoring in
expanded throughput capacity in our numbers.

7 March 2018 13
 Aegis Logistics

Exhibit 23: We expect throughput to grow at 51% CAGR over FY17-20, led by ramp-up of
Haldia and Pipavav terminal

Mumbai Pipavav Haldia Total throughput

4.6
3.7

2.7 2.1
1.4
0.5
1.3 1.3 1.4
1.1
0.8 -
0.6
0.3 1.1 1.1 1.1
0.5 0.7
FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E
Source: Company, MOSL

 While we expect India’s LPG imports to grow at 22% CAGR over FY17-20, AGIS is
expected to increase its LPG throughput at 51% CAGR during the same time, led
by the ramp-up of the Haldia and Pipavav terminals. Thus, we expect AGIS’
market share to increase from 12% in FY17 to 23% in FY20E.
 We expect logistics segment EBITDA to grow at 62% CAGR over FY17-20E led by
51% CAGR increase in LPG throughput.

Exhibit 24: AGIS to gain market share led by commissioning Exhibit 25: Logistics segment EBTIDA to grow at 62% CAGR
of Haldia terminal and ramp-up of Pipavav terminal over FY17-20, led by throughput ramp-up (INRb)
LPG Import (mmtpa) AGIS - Throughput (mmtpa)
Logistics
Aegis market share (%)
22% 23%
21%

12% 3.2
11%
8% 2.4
1.5
0.6 0.8
8 0.6 9 1.0 11 1.3 13 2.7 17 3.7 20 4.6 0.4

FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E

Source: PPAC, MOSL Source: Company, MOSL

7 March 2018 14
 Aegis Logistics

Gas sourcing and retail & distribution segment to grow at steady pace
 Gas sourcing: In order to strengthen its sourcing capabilities, the company
entered into a joint venture with one of the largest sourcing companies in the
world – ITOCHU (Japan) – through its Singapore subsidiary in 2012. The JV helps
AGIS to use ITOCHU’s expertise for sourcing LPG at competitive rates. With ~9%
market share in LPG imports in FY17, it emerged as one of the largest private
players in LPG sourcing in India.
 AGIS earns a commission fee for providing this activity. Since the company has
its own terminals, it derives revenue through storage and handling charges as
well. In the gas sourcing business, the company gets a spread on USD3-5/MT.
We expect sourcing volumes to grow at 20% CAGR and assume a spread of
USD4/MT over FY17-20. We expect EBITDA to grow at 2% CAGR over FY17-20E.
 Gas retailing and distribution: AGIS is also present in the industrial, commercial
and auto gas distribution business through a diversified network. The company
has ~100 distributors in 45 cities across eight states, which distribute
commercial LPG cylinders under the brand ‘Aegis Puregas’. Auto gas is sold
under the brand ‘Aegis Autogas’ through 107 auto gas stations. Bulk LPG is
transported by road tankers to industries including autos, steel and ceramics.
We expect retailing and distribution EBITDA to grow at 21% CAGR over F17-2E
on account of strong demand.

Exhibit 26: LPG division EBITDA to grow at 41% CAGR over FY17-20E led by logistics
segment (INRb)
Sourcing Retailing & Distribution Logistics LPG EBITDA (INRb)

4.3
3.3
2.2
3.2
1.6 2.4
1.2
0.8 1.5
0.6 0.8
0.4 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6
0.20.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5
0.3 0.3
FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E
Source: Company, MOSL

 AGIS is also expected to announce two large LPG terminals in the coming
months – one of which would be the largest LPG terminal. Management has
received environmental clearance for one of the proposed terminals and is
currently negotiating commercial terms. We believe strong LPG throughput and
capacity expansion plans should re-rate the stock further.
 We are not factoring in any capacity expansion for LPG terminals until FY20 and
expect new capacities to be operational post FY20. Any preponement of
capacity addition is an upside risk to our earnings estimates.

7 March 2018 15
 Aegis Logistics

Liquids division remains a cash cow

Capacity expansion to generate steady growth

 AGIS is also a leading liquid terminal operator and provides complete services like
shipping, O&M and logistics. The company operates four liquid terminals strategically
located at the Mumbai, Pipavav, Kochi and Haldia ports.
 Locational advantage and strong customer relationships have enabled higher
utilization for Mumbai, Kochi and Pipavav. OMCs are the major clients.
 Ramp-up of the Hadia terminal (brownfield expansion), and commissioning of the
Kandla (100,000kl greenfield, 4QFY18) and Mangalore (25,000kl greenfield, 1QFY19)
terminals are expected to drive the next leg of growth for the liquids division.
 We expect liquids throughput CAGR of 16% over FY17-20, led by capacity expansion
and higher utilization. Liquids division EBITDA CAGR is estimated at 22% during the
same period.

Leading liquid terminal operator

 AGIS is a leading liquid terminal operator and provides complete services like
shipping, O&M and logistics. The company handles POL (petroleum) and other
chemicals at its liquid terminals. It operates four liquid terminals that are
strategically located at Mumbai, Pipavav, Kochi and Haldia, with a total capacity
of 529,310 KL. These liquid terminals are well connected to the major refineries
and petrochemical companies through pipelines. OMCs are the major clients.
Liquid terminals are offered on long-term and spot contracts. The company
earns higher margins in spot contracts.

Exhibit 27: AGIS offers shipping, O&M and logistics services for liquids

Source: Company, MOSL

 AGIS is in the final stage of expansion of its green field terminal at the Kandla
and Mangalore ports, and brownfield expansion of the Haldia terminal. All these
terminals are located near major refining and petrochemical complexes. With
petrochemical industry growing at ~9-10%, this business continues to provide
stable cash flows for the company.

7 March 2018 16
 Aegis Logistics

Exhibit 29: Mumbai, Kochi, Haldia, Kandla and Mangalore

Exhibit 28: Strategically located terminals; plans to build a handle ~75% of the POL traffic at major ports (April-
necklace of terminals around the coastline of India November 2017)

Kandla
10% Mumbai
4%
31% New Mangalore
7%
Cochin
8%
Visakhapatnam
9% Chennai
19% Haldia
12%
Others

Source: Company, MOSL

Source: IPA, MOSL

 The liquid division contributes ~35% of overall EBITDA. EBITDA contribution

from the division has declined over the past five years due to high growth of the
gas division. We expect the liquid division’s EBITDA contribution to remain
around 27% over FY18-20E.

Exhibit 30: AGIS’ liquid terminal division to contribute ~27% Exhibit 31: AGIS has six liquid terminal at key ports in India,
of total EBITDA with total capacity of 689,000 KL
Mumbai Kochi
Segment-wise - EBITDA Breakup (%) LPG Liquids Haldia Pipavav
Kandla Mangalore
Total capacity ('000 KL) 681 689
31 30 27
39 37
53 46 548 25 25
58 504 100 100
25 120 120
120 120
60 79 111 120
69 70 73
61 63 51 51 51 51
47 54
42
273 273 273 273

FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E

FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E
Source: Company, MOSL Source: Company, MOSL

 Locational advantage and strong customer relationships have enabled higher

utilization for the Mumbai, Kochi and Pipavav ports. We expect utilization to
remain at similar levels in future as well.
 Ramp-up of the Hadia terminal (brownfield expansion) and the commissioning
of Mangalore/Kandla terminals (greenfield expansion) are expected to bring the
next leg of growth for the liquids division. While the Kandla terminal (100,000
KL) is expected to come on stream in 4QFY18, the Mangalore terminal (25,000
KL) should become operational in 1QFY19.
 We expect liquid throughput to grow at 16% CAGR over FY17-20, led by capacity
expansion and higher utilization. Liquid division EBITDA is expected to grow at
22% CAGR during the same period.

7 March 2018 17
 Aegis Logistics

Exhibit 32: Liquid throughput to grow at 16% CAGR over Exhibit 33: Liquid division EBITDA to grow at 22% CAGR over
FY17-20 led by capacity expansion and higher utilization FY17-20E (INRb)
Mumbai Kochi
Haldia Pipavav
Kandla Mangalore
651
598 24
439 19 95
420 80
75 100
- 15 25 1.6
96 75 100 108 1.4
-
51 51 51 51 1.0 1.0 0.9 1.0
273 273 273 273

FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E

FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E
Source: Company, MOSL Source: Company, MOSL

7 March 2018 18
 Aegis Logistics

Valuation and view

Initiate coverage with a Buy; TP of INR303

 AGIS has been a key beneficiary of the government’s thrust on increasing penetration
of LPG. We expect a CAGR of 42% in EBITDA and 51% in EPS over FY17-20, led by debt
repayment.
 With major capex behind, we expect strong free cash flow generation of ~INR10b over
FY18-20. Return ratios are expected to improve, going ahead: RoE is likely to improve
from 22% in FY17 to 35% in FY20, while RoCE is expected to improve from 19% to 31%
over the same period.
 In our view, the significant re-rating of AGIS’ stock price over FY14-17 can be
attributed to the pick-up in LPG throughput and greenfield expansion plans of the
Haldia LPG terminal.
 While management is expected to announce a new gas terminal in the coming days,
we are not factoring in capacity expansion until FY20E in our numbers. Further
capacity expansion before FY20 can pose an upside risk to our earnings estimates.
 We value AGIS using the DCF methodology with WACC of 11% and terminal growth of
3.5% to arrive at fair value of INR303/share, implying 32% upside. The stock trades at
18.3x FY20E EPS of INR12.5 and 12x FY20E EV/EBITDA. We initiate coverage with a Buy
rating.

LPG division to drive the next leg of growth

 AGIS’ liquids division EBITDA contribution has been declining due to high growth
of the gas division. Rising LPG imports and recent expansion of AGIS’ LPG
terminal capacity would lead to higher EBITDA growth in the LPG division
compared to the liquids division.
 We expect LPG division EBITDA contribution to remain above 70% over FY18-20.
Logistics segment EBITDA is expected to remain a major contributor to gas
division EBTIDA over FY17-20, led by strong growth in LPG throughput for the
company.

Exhibit 34: Gas division contribution to increase Exhibit 35: Logistics segment to lead gas division
Gas Division - EBITDA Breakup (%)
Segment-wise - EBITDA Breakup (%) LPG Liquids
Sourcing Retailing & Distribution Logistics

37 31 30 27
39 46
58 53
75 72 67 67 73 75
80

63 69 70 73
61 54
42 47 16 14 19
7 11 15 14
13 14 12 18 14 12 11
FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E

Source: Company, MOSL Source: Company, MOSL

7 March 2018 19
 Aegis Logistics

Strong profitability to continue

 We expect significant growth in EBITDA and PAT, led by strong growth in the gas
logistics segment. We expect AGIS’ EBITDA to grow at 42% CAGR over FY17-20
and PAT to grow at 51% CAGR due debt repayment.

Exhibit 36: We expect AGIS’ EBITDA to grow at 42% CAGR Exhibit 37: PAT to grow at 51% CAGR over FY17-20, ahead of
over FY17-20, led by strong growth of LPG division EBITDA due to repayment of debt

EBITDA (INRb) PAT (INRb)

1.4 1.9 2.1 3.0 4.8 6.0 1.0 1.1 1.2 2.2 3.3 4.2

FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E

Source: Company, MOSL Source: Company, MOSL

Strong cash flow generation; return ratios to improve further

 AGIS has recently completed its Pipavav LPG terminal expansion (brownfield)
and Haldia LPG terminal expansion (greenfield). The company's future capex
will be incurred on the upcoming liquids terminals at Kandla and Mangalore port
for expansion of liquids capacity. Also management is expected to announce
new LPG terminals at the western ports, which will lead to further capex.
 Given healthy operating profits and cash flows, we expect most of the capex to
be funded by internal accruals. We expect AGIS to generate free cash flow of
~INR10b over FY18-20.
 We believe that the return ratios for AGIS will improve, led by an improvement
in the operating margins and higher utilization at its new/existing terminals. We
expect RoE to increase to 35% in FY20 from 22% in FY17, and RoCE to improve
to 31% in FY20 from 19% in FY17.

Exhibit 38: Major capex is behind, and we expect AGIS to Exhibit 39: Return ratios to improve further; RoE/RoCE to
generate FCF of INR10b over FY18-20 hover above 30%

FCF (INRb) RoE (%) RoCE (%)

36 35
4.0 32
3.1
2.7 24
20 22 31
31
0.7 25
0.5 21
17 19

(0.9)
FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E

Source: Company, MOSL Source: Company, MOSL

7 March 2018 20
 Aegis Logistics

DCF – based valuation

 While management is expected to announce two large LPG terminals in the
coming months – one of which would be the largest LPG terminal. For our for
forecast, we assume first LPG terminal with 3mmtpa capacity to come online in
FY21 and second LPG terminal with 2mmtpa capacity to come online in FY24.
 We value AGIS using DCF methodology, with WACC of 11% and terminal growth
of 3.5% to arrive at a fair value of INR303/share, implying 32% upside.

Exhibit 40: DCF summary

AGIS - DCF Valuation FY18E FY19E FY20E FY21E FY22E FY23E FY24E FY25E FY26E FY27E FY28E FY29E FY30E
AGIS EBITDA (INRm) 3,148 4,612 5,764 7,018 8,302 9,305 10,527 11,674 13,004 14,652 15,918 17,147 18,650
Depreciation 296 359 386 487 589 589 725 725 725 725 725 725 725
EBIT 2,853 4,252 5,378 6,530 7,713 8,716 9,802 10,950 12,279 13,927 15,194 16,422 17,925
Tax rate (%) 11 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22
Capital expenditure 500 500 500 1,500 1,000 1,000 1,000 300 300 300 300 300 300
Change in WC -531 261 193 193 169 208 254 309 371 557 552 588 577
FCFF (INRm) 2,869 2,915 3,888 3,888 5,436 6,180 7,117 8,656 9,631 10,731 11,723 12,646 13,829
Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Discount factor 0.90 0.81 0.73 0.66 0.59 0.54 0.48 0.43 0.39 0.35 0.32
PV(FCFF) 2,627 3,157 2,845 3,585 3,672 3,811 4,177 4,188 4,205 4,139 4,024
Source: Company, MOSL

Exhibit 41: WACC of 11% and TGR of 3.5% Exhibit 42: We arrive at a fair value of INR303/share
WACC Calculation DCF Valuation - Valued at the end of FY18

Debt/Equity 34% Terminal cash flow (INRm) 13,829

Terminal growth rate 3.5%
Tax rate 27%
Terminal value (INRm) 191,560
Risk free rate 7.6%
PV (Terminal Value) 60,949
Beta 0.87 PV (CF over FY19-23E) 40,428
Market risk premium 13.5% Enterprise value (INRm) 101,377

Cost of equity 12.6% Net debt (INRm) 248

Equity value (INRm) 101,129
Cost of debt 8.5%
Equity Shares (m) 334
WACC 11.1% Target price (INR) 303
Source: Company, MOSL Source: Company, MOSL

Exhibit 43: AGIS 1-year forward P/E Exhibit 44: AGIS 1- year forward EV/EBITDA
P/E (x) Avg (x) Max (x) EV/EBITDA (x) Avg (x)
Min (x) +1SD -1SD 30.0 Max (x) Min (x)
60.0
49.0 23.4
24.0
45.0
17.3
18.0
28.9
30.0
12.0
15.6
18.0
15.0 23.5 10.8
7.0 6.0 4.2
2.7 2.5
0.0 0.0
Jun-09

Jun-14

Jun-09

Jun-14
Mar-08

Sep-10

Dec-11

Mar-13

Sep-15

Dec-16

Mar-18

Mar-08

Sep-10

Dec-11

Mar-13

Sep-15

Dec-16

Mar-18

Source: Company, MOSL Source: Company, MOSL

7 March 2018 21
 Aegis Logistics

Bull & Bear case

Bull Case
 In our bull case, we assume 4th LPG terminal (3mmtpa) to come online in FY20
(v/s FY21 in base case) and 5th LPG terminal (2mmtpa) to come online in FY23
(v/s FY24 in base case). We also expect higher utilization rate at existing LPG
terminals.
 Expect gas throughput CAGR of 63% v/s 51% in our base case, leading to 77%
EBTIDA CAGR in the logistics segment over FY17-20E.
 We expect an improvement in EBTIDA CAGR for the sourcing & distribution
division, led by higher volumes.
 We also expect rapid ramp-up of the upcoming liquids terminal, leading to
higher EBITDA CAGR of 23% v/s 22% in our base case for the liquids division over
FY17-20E.
 Based on the above assumptions, EBITDA is expected to grow at 49% CAGR v/s
42% in our base case over FY17-20. Using DCF methodology, with WACC of 11%
and TGR of 3.5% we arrive at a fair value of INR342/share, implying 50% upside.

Bear Case
 In our bear case, we assume only one LPG terminal (3mmtpa) to come online in
FY22 (v/s FY21 in base case). We don’t expect further LPG terminal capacity
addition to happen.
 Expect gas throughput CAGR of 51%, leading to 62% EBTIDA CAGR in the
logistics segment over FY17-20E.
 We expect steady growth in EBTIDA CAGR for the sourcing & distribution
division, led by higher volumes.
 We also expect steady utilization of the upcoming liquids terminal, leading to
higher EBITDA CAGR of 22% for the liquids division over FY17-20E.
 Based on the above assumptions, EBITDA is expected to grow at 32% CAGR v/s
42% in our base case over FY17-20. Using DCF methodology, with WACC of 11%
and TGR of 5% we arrive at a fair value of INR245/share, implying 7% upside.

Exhibit 45: Scenario Analysis – Bull Case Exhibit 46: Scenario Analysis – Bear Case
DCF Valuation - Valued at the end of FY18 DCF Valuation - Valued at the end of FY18
Terminal cash flow (INRm) 15,564 Terminal cash flow (INRm) 10,587
Terminal growth rate 3.5% Terminal growth rate 3.5%
Terminal value (INRm) 215,590 Terminal value (INRm) 146,651
PV (Terminal Value) 68,594 PV (Terminal Value) 46,660
PV (CF over FY19-23E) 45,806 PV (CF over FY19-23E) 35,353
Enterprise value (INRm) 114,400 Enterprise value (INRm) 82,012
Net debt (INRm) 248 Net debt (INRm) 248
Equity value (INRm) 114,152 Equity value (INRm) 81,764
Equity Shares (m) 334 Equity Shares (m) 334
Target price (INR) 342
Target price (INR) 245
Source: Company, MOSL
Source: Company, MOSL

7 March 2018 22
 Aegis Logistics

Significant re-rating possible

 AGIS’ stock price has witnessed a re-rating over FY14-17 on account of a sharp
pick-up in LPG throughput (41% CAGR) and greenfield expansion plan of the
Haldia LPG terminal. While LPG throughput increased 2.8x (41% CAGR), the
stock price rose 11.5x (126% CAGR) over FY14-17.
 AGIS is also expected to announce two large LPG terminals in the coming
months – one of which would be the largest LPG terminal. Management has
received environmental clearance for one of the proposed terminals and is
currently negotiating commercial terms. We believe strong LPG throughput and
capacity expansion plans should re-rate the stock further.

Exhibit 47: LPG throughput has been the growth driver for AGIS in the past; we expect LPG throughput to grow at 51% CAGR
over FY17-20E

AGIS - Throughput (mmtpa) AGIS - Stock price (INR)

5.0
During FY14-17, AGIS's
4.0 logistics volume grew at
While AGIS's logistics volume grew at 23%
41% CAGR, its stock price
CAGR during FY07-14, its stock price
3.0 appreciated at 126% CAGR
appreciated at 14% CAGR
194
2.0
115 We model logistics
1.0 69 volume grwoth at 51%
8 16 18 27 15 14 17 CAGR over FY17-20 for
5
0.0 AGIS
FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E

Source: Company, MOSL

Key risks to our investment thesis

 Change in favorable macros: LPG consumption growth has benefited from
sustained low crude oil prices. However, any rise in LPG price could hurt
domestic demand.
 Change in government policy: LPG consumption growth has been driven by
government’s push. Change in government or change in government policies
could impact LPG consumption in the country.
 Shift in consumer preference: LPG is the cheapest and most feasible cooking
fuel for the majority of the Indian population. However, a shift in consumer
preference toward alternative fuels like piped natural gas instead of LPG could
impact LPG consumption in the country.
 Dependence on OMCs: AGIS is heavily dependent on OMCs for both gas and
liquids divisions’ growth and profitability. Any adverse change in relationship
with OMCs or increased competition from OMCs LPG terminal could impact
AGIS’s growth prospects.
 Delay in project expansion: AGIS’s future growth prospects are highly
dependent on timely expansion of new projects. Any delay or cancellation
would hamper its growth potential.

7 March 2018 23
 Aegis Logistics

SWOT analysis

 Presence in entire value chain in gas business

 Steady cash flow from liquid division
 Economies of scale in bulk sourcing
 Strategic terminal locations
 Strong customer relationships
 JV with one of the largest global trading company
Strength

 Gas business contributes majority of EBITDA

 Majority of gas business dependent on B2B clients
 Dependence on OMCs for large part of the LPG
business

Weaknesses

 Expanding market size of B2C business i.e. autogas

and commercial cylinders
 Expand LPG terminal capacity to tap rising demand

Opportunities

 Government policies
 Exchange rate volatility
 High LPG prices can hurt demand
 OMCs expanding their LPG terminal capacities
Threats

7 March 2018 24
 Aegis Logistics

Company background

Aegis Logistics (AGIS) is India’s leading oil, gas and chemical logistics company. Its
business can be primarily divided in to two divisions – Gas and Liquids. The company
operates three gas terminals and six liquid terminals across the country. It is
engaged in the handling of oil & LPG products, and the sourcing, retailing and
distribution of LPG.

Company’s strategy is of building a necklace of port terminals around India’s coast

line from Pipavav to Haldia to Kochi, inland oil terminals on a “build, own, operate”
basis to service the National Oil Companies (NOCs) and developing a Retail
Distribution Network for the LPG business. Its client base includes many leading
industrial companies in India as well as retail outlets and customers who are served
through distributors and Aegis Autogas stations. AGIS also operates internationally
through its sourcing and trading subsidiaries. The company entered into a joint
venture with ITOCHU Corporation of Japan which is world’s second largest general
trading groups in Japan.

Exhibit 48: AGIS business division

Source: Company, MOSL

7 March 2018 25
 Aegis Logistics

Key management team

Raj Chandaria, Chairman & MD
 B.Sc (Economics) and an MBA from Boston University
 Over the last 30 years he has led the business through the next stage of growth
in the Gas and Petroleum Distribution Business

Anish Chandaria, Vice Chairman & MD

 B.A. (Economics) and an MBA from Wharton Business School
 Over the last 22 years he spearheaded company’s entry in Autogas Business and
has rich experience in Oil & Gas Industry

Sudhir Malhotra, Group President & COO

 A Chemical Engineer and a Post Graduate in Marketing Management
 With over 20 years of hands on commercial experience in Oil, Gas & Chemical
Industry
 Associated since 1990

Rajiv Chohan, President (Business Development)

 A Post Graduate in Business Administration
 With over 25 years’ experience in downstream Oil Industry in PSUs & MNCs
 Handled B2B & B2C Marketing of Retail Fuels, Lubricants, LPG and Fuel Oil in
India

Murad Moledina: CFO

 An FCA with 30 years of experience in Corporate Finance, Accounts & Taxation
 Instrumental in various Corporate Restructuring actions including Acquisitions,
Demerger, Buyback, etc.

K. S. Sawant: President (Ops. & Projects)

 A Chemical Engineer with over 30 years of experience in operations of Liquid &
Gas Terminals
 Experience of setting up Liquid & Gas Terminals at different Ports

7 March 2018 26
 Aegis Logistics

Exhibit 49: Evolution of AGIS - Key events

Year Key events
1956 Year of establishment
1967 Entry into Specialty Chemicals
1977 Entry into Liquid Logistics
1978 Maiden IPO & Listing
1995 Entry into LPG Business
2003 Divestment of Specialty Chemicals
2005 Foray into Retail of Autogas
2006 Launch of O&M Business
2007 Acquisition: Sealord Containers (Mumbail) & Konkan Storage (Kochi)
2009 Established LPG Sourcing in Singapore
2010 Acquisition: Shell India LPG Business (Pipavav)
2012 Launch of Marine Products Distribution
2012 Greenfield expansion at Pipavav and Haldia liquids terminal
2013 Haldia liquid terminal construction complete
2014 Joint Venture with ITOCHU through Singapore subsidiary
2015 Land acquired at Kandla and Mangalore
2016 Announced new LPG terminal at Haldia
2016 Greenfield liquid terminal expansion at Kandla port
2016 Brownfield gas terminal expansion at Pipavav port
2017 Sold 19.7% stake in HALPG to ITOCHU
2017 Pipavav LPG terminal expansion completed
Source: Company, MOSL

7 March 2018 27
 Aegis Logistics

Financials and Valuations

Consolidated - Income Statement (INR Million)
Y/E March FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E
Total Income from Operations 50,309 39,160 22,132 39,328 47,687 69,105 89,277
Change (%) 26.4 -22.2 -43.5 77.7 21.3 44.9 29.2
Purchases of Stock-in-Trade 48,038 36,352 18,739 35,669 43,054 60,812 78,564
Employees Cost 350 409 469 462 419 449 480
Other Expenses 844 964 1,071 1,128 1,246 3,075 4,280
Total Expenditure 49,232 37,725 20,279 37,259 44,720 64,336 83,324
% of Sales 97.9 96.3 91.6 94.7 93.8 93.1 93.3
EBITDA 1,077 1,435 1,853 2,069 2,967 4,769 5,953
Margin (%) 2.1 3.7 8.4 5.3 6.2 6.9 6.7
Depreciation 222 230 234 243 296 359 386
EBIT 855 1,205 1,619 1,826 2,671 4,409 5,568
Int. and Finance Charges 185 205 177 161 186 169 152
Other Income 129 114 85 52 63 91 118
PBT bef. EO Exp. 799 1,114 1,527 1,717 2,547 4,331 5,533
EO Items 0 309 0 0 0 0 0
PBT after EO Exp. 799 1,422 1,527 1,717 2,547 4,331 5,533
Total Tax 112 299 265 377 277 953 1,217
Tax Rate (%) 14.1 21.0 17.4 22.0 10.9 22.0 22.0
Minority Interest 76 89 128 137 101 123 148
Reported PAT 611 1,034 1,133 1,203 2,169 3,256 4,168
Adjusted PAT 611 790 1,133 1,203 2,169 3,256 4,168
Change (%) 81.7 29.5 43.4 6.1 80.4 50.1 28.0
Margin (%) 1.2 2.0 5.1 3.1 4.5 4.7 4.7

Consolidated - Balance Sheet (INR Million)

Y/E March FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E
Equity Share Capital 334 334 334 334 334 334 334
Total Reserves 3,168 3,940 4,711 5,687 7,371 9,898 13,134
Net Worth 3,502 4,274 5,045 6,021 7,705 10,232 13,468
Minority Interest 126 264 393 285 285 285 285
Total Loans 2,410 2,181 1,883 2,866 2,616 2,366 2,116
Deferred Tax Liabilities 164 189 229 276 276 276 276
Capital Employed 6,202 6,908 7,550 9,448 10,882 13,159 16,145
Gross Block 6,003 6,540 6,951 7,291 10,057 11,010 11,600
Less: Accum. Deprn. 1,879 2,139 2,371 2,610 2,906 3,266 3,652
Net Fixed Assets 4,124 4,401 4,580 4,681 7,150 7,744 7,949
Goodwill on Consolidation 137 137 137 13 13 13 13
Capital WIP 354 339 734 3,144 879 426 335
Total Investments 113 213 4 2 2 2 2
Curr. Assets, Loans&Adv. 4,134 4,276 3,537 9,537 8,553 13,205 18,501
Inventory 249 204 115 218 261 376 487
Account Receivables 2,058 2,012 972 7,059 3,919 5,680 7,338
Cash and Bank Balance 726 1,054 967 605 2,366 4,241 6,919
Loans and Advances 1,102 1,007 1,482 1,655 2,007 2,908 3,757
Curr. Liability & Prov. 2,660 2,459 1,442 7,928 5,714 8,230 10,655
Account Payables 2,096 1,979 894 7,257 4,901 7,051 9,131
Other Current Liabilities 366 379 402 457 554 802 1,037
Provisions 198 101 145 214 260 377 486
Net Current Assets 1,474 1,817 2,095 1,609 2,839 4,975 7,846
Appl. of Funds 6,201 6,908 7,550 9,448 10,882 13,159 16,145
E: MOSL Estimates

7 March 2018 28
 Aegis Logistics

Financials and Valuations

Ratios
Y/E March FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E
Basic (INR)
EPS 1.8 2.4 3.4 3.6 6.5 9.7 12.5
Cash EPS 2.5 3.1 4.1 4.3 7.4 10.8 13.6
BV/Share 10.5 12.8 15.1 18.0 23.1 30.6 40.3
DPS 0.5 0.8 0.9 0.7 1.3 1.9 2.4
Payout (%) 33.6 24.5 31.9 22.4 22.4 22.4 22.4
Valuation (x)
P/E 96.3 67.2 63.3 35.1 23.4 18.3
Cash P/E 74.7 55.7 52.7 30.9 21.1 16.7
P/BV 17.8 15.1 12.6 9.9 7.4 5.7
EV/Sales 2.0 3.5 2.0 1.6 1.1 0.8
EV/EBITDA 53.9 41.6 37.9 25.8 15.6 12.0
Dividend Yield (%) 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.6 0.8 1.1
FCF per share 2.6 2.2 1.4 -2.6 8.1 9.1 12.1
Return Ratios (%)
RoE 18.5 20.3 24.3 21.7 31.6 36.3 35.2
RoCE 13.7 16.8 21.0 18.5 25.4 30.6 31.5
RoIC 17.0 18.5 24.0 24.7 35.7 42.7 50.0
Working Capital Ratios
Fixed Asset Turnover (x) 8.4 6.0 3.2 5.4 4.7 6.3 7.7
Asset Turnover (x) 8.1 5.7 2.9 4.2 4.4 5.3 5.5
Inventory (Days) 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
Debtor (Days) 15 19 16 66 30 30 30
Creditor (Days) 15 18 15 67 38 37 37
Leverage Ratio (x)
Current Ratio 1.6 1.7 2.5 1.2 1.5 1.6 1.7
Interest Cover Ratio 4.6 5.9 9.2 11.3 14.3 26.0 36.6
Net Debt/Equity 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.0 -0.2 -0.4

Consolidated - Cash Flow Statement (INR Million)

Y/E March FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E
OP/(Loss) before Tax 799 1,422 1,527 1,717 2,547 4,331 5,533
Depreciation 222 230 234 243 296 359 386
Interest & Finance Charges 88 123 122 135 123 78 34
Direct Taxes Paid -225 -110 -405 -287 -277 -953 -1,217
(Inc)/Dec in WC 4 -118 -76 -250 531 -261 -193
CF from Operations 888 1,547 1,402 1,558 3,220 3,555 4,543
Others -9 -324 -18 -14 0 0 0
CF from Operating incl EO 879 1,223 1,384 1,544 3,220 3,555 4,543
(Inc)/Dec in FA 0 -474 -916 -2,401 -500 -500 -500
Free Cash Flow 879 750 468 -858 2,720 3,055 4,043
(Pur)/Sale of Investments 43 260 215 5 0 0 0
Others -960 85 60 24 63 91 118
CF from Investments -917 -128 -641 -2,372 -437 -409 -382
Issue of Shares 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Inc/(Dec) in Debt -909 -229 -298 982 -250 -250 -250
Interest Paid -190 -199 -177 -205 -186 -169 -152
Dividend Paid -183 -339 -356 -311 -485 -729 -933
Others 0 0 0 0 -101 -123 -148
CF from Fin. Activity -1,282 -767 -831 467 -1,022 -1,271 -1,483
Inc/Dec of Cash -1,320 329 -87 -362 1,760 1,875 2,678
Opening Balance 2,045 725 1,054 967 605 2,366 4,241
Closing Balance 725 1,054 967 605 2,366 4,241 6,919

7 March 2018 29
 Aegis Logistics

NOTES

7 March 2018 30
 REPORT GALLERY
RECENT INITIATING COVERAGE REPORTS

`
Explanation of Investment Rating
Investment Rating Expected return (over 12-month)
BUY >=15% Aegis Logistics
SELL < - 10%
NEUTRAL > - 10 % to 15%
UNDER REVIEW Rating may undergo a change
NOT RATED We have forward looking estimates for the stock but we refrain from assigning recommendation
*In case the recommendation given by the Research Analyst becomes inconsistent with the investment rating legend, the Research Analyst shall within 28 days of the inconsistency, take appropriate measures to make the recommendation consistent with the investment rating legend.

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Disclosure of Interest Statement Aegis Logistics
Analyst ownership of the stock Yes
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Motilal Oswal Asset Management Company Ltd. (MOAMC): PMS (Registration No.: INP000000670) offers PMS and Mutual Funds products. Motilal Oswal Wealth Management Ltd. (MOWML): PMS (Registration No.: INP000004409) offers wealth
management solutions. *Motilal Oswal Securities Ltd. is a distributor of Mutual Funds, PMS, Fixed Deposit, Bond, NCDs, Insurance and IPO products. * Motilal Oswal Commodities Broker Pvt. Ltd. offers Commodities Products. * Motilal Oswal Real
Estate Investment Advisors II Pvt. Ltd. offers Real Estate products. * Motilal Oswal Private Equity Investment Advisors Pvt. Ltd. offers Private Equity products

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