272

Probability
5.1 Overview
Standard Deck of Cards
 There are a total of 52 cards in a standard deck of cards. While most decks also
come with two jokers, they are not used in most games of chance and are not
counted in the 52 cards. We will not consider the jokers in our experiments.
 Half the cards are red and the other half are black (52 ÷ 2 = 26 red cards and 26
black cards)
 The deck is also equally divided into four suits: hearts, diamonds, clubs and
spades. Each suit has 13 cards in it. (52 ÷ 4 = 13) The hearts and diamonds are
red. The clubs and spades are black.
 There are three face cards in each suit: king, queen & jack. There is one ace in
each suit. And the remaining 9 cards are numbered 2 through 10. The ace can be
considered either the highest card (above the king) or the lowest card (as a 1). You
will need to read each problem carefully to know if the ace is considered high or
low.

Aces can be high Face Cards are Jacks,

(above the King) or Queens, and Kings
low (like a one)
 273

The American Roulette Wheel

American roulette will be another common example in this chapter. Roulette is played by
spinning a wheel and dropping a small ball onto the wheel,
the winner is determined by which space the ball finally
ends up in.

You should learn the composition of the wheel.

 There are 38 spaces total
 There are 2 green spaces, numbered 0 and 00.
 The remaining 36 spaces are numbered 1 – 36.
 Half of the spaces numbered 1 – 36 are black, the
other half are red. (36 ÷ 2 = 18 black spaces and 18
red)
 The 0 and 00 are always part of the sample space,
but they do not count as low numbers (or even
numbers) when placing a bet.

The Roulette Table looks like this:

To place a bet you put your chips/money on the board. To bet on a single number you
place your chips on that number. To bet on two numbers, called a SPLIT, you place your
chips on the line between the two numbers. You can only bet on two numbers that are
neighbors. For example you can bet on the 1-2 split, but not 1 & 5 or 1 & 8. The other
possible bets are:
 A three number Street  A five number Line
 A four number Square  A six number Line
 A group of 12 numbers, either a column or section
 The Low Numbers: 1 – 18 (don’t include 0 or 00)
 The High Numbers: 19 – 39
 The Even Numbers: 2, 4, 6, … , 36 (don’t include 0 or 00)
 The Odd Numbers: 1, 3, 5, … , 35
 The Red Numbers
 The Black Numbers
 274

Probability Overview
How Do Casinos Make Money?
Have you ever walked into a casino before? It is an interesting experience. When you
enter, you may notice a few things, depending on the casino:
 There are no clocks.
 The windows are tinted.
 The temperature is on the cool side (never hot).
 When you win while playing a machine it makes a fun and gratifying sound.
 They will bring you free drinks, but the drinks usually take a while to arrive.
 The layout of the casino is like a maze.

Many people think that the machines are rigged or that the casino cheats in order to make
money. Casinos don’t need to cheat to make money. They have probability on their side,
and we will see that the Casinos get rich by exploiting a very small advantage a very large
number of times.

In order to understand how Casinos make money, we will need to learn about various
aspects of probability.

The first part of the Probability Module involves working with sets and tables. These are
tools that will help us organize our data.

The second part focuses on Probability. We will look at the Classical Approach to
Probability (also known as Theoretic Probability), which has its roots in gambling:
 Probability – this is a way of quantifying the likelihood that an event will occur.
 Odds and Probability – you hear about odds all the time in gambling. We’ll learn
what that means.
 Counting Techniques – classical probability involves counting possibilities. We’ll
learn various techniques and formulas to help us count possibilities quickly.

And we will look at the Relative Frequency Approach to Probability (also known as the
Experimental Approach). In this approach, we run experiments and collect data in order
to arrive at our probabilities. To work with this approach we will be studying:
 Sets and Venn Diagrams – we will use these as tools to organize our data.
 Probability Distributions – tables that show us the probability of different events
 Two Way Frequency Tables – Two way frequency tables will allow us to compare
across two different categories. For example, we can use them to answer questions
like “Are men more likely to support marijuana legalization than women are?”

We will see how the Classical Approach and the Relative Frequency Approach are related
and give the same probabilities in the Experimental Probability Lab.
 275

5.2 Working with Sets

Computing probabilities (one of our goals in this chapter) require working with sets. Sets are
just groups of things, like a set of dishes or a set of sheets or the set of students in your Math 112
class. Objects in the same set typically have some shared characteristic like the pattern on your
dishes or the fact that you are enrolled in the same math course. When working with numbers
we have four basic operations: addition, subtraction, multiplication, and division. To work with
sets we need to understand their operations: union, intersection, and complement.

Objectives
1. You will understand the language of sets
2. You will be able to find the union and intersection of two sets.
3. You will be able to find the complement of a set.
4. You will be able to tell if the two sets are disjoint.
5. You will be able to create and use Venn Diagrams.

First we need some vocabulary.

Universe: this is just what it sounds like – the universe. It is often denoted with a capitol letter
U. The universe tells us what we are working with for each problem. We ONLY work with
what is in our Universe. If our Universe is all the students enrolled in Math 112, there are no
other students or people. In probability we often refer to the Universe as our Sample Space.
Sets: are groups of objects from our Universe. If our Universe is all the students enrolled in
Math 112, then your section of Math 112 is a set. The universe is considered a set. For example
our universe could be U = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}. Note that we denote sets with braces { }.
Elements: these are the objects in a set. If our Universe is all the students enrolled in Math 112,
then you are one element in our Universe. If our universe is U = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}, then the
number 4 is an element.
Subsets: these are the sets we can make using some (or all) of the elements in another set. If
our set is all the students in enrolled in Dr. Conrad’s Math 112 section, then a subset of that is the
set of all the females in Mr. Conrad’s Math 112 section. If our set is D = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}, then
set A = {2, 4, 6} is a subset of set D.
Disjoint: two sets are said to be disjoint if they do not have any elements in common. If our
Universe is all the students enrolled in Math 112, then Mrs. Rhoads’s section of Math 112 is
disjoint from Mrs. Villatoro’s section, because there are no students who are enrolled in both
classes at the same time. If our universe is U = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}, then A = {2, 4, 6} and C = {1,
3} are disjoint.
Empty Set: the empty set is just that, a set with no elements. It is denoted either { } or Ø.
 276

The Union of Two Sets

We can use a Venn diagram to show how these two sets relate to each other. The large
rectangle contains our universe, all the possible elements. Each oval represents an individual set.
They are typically overlapped because sets often share elements.
Let’s start with U = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6} and two sets: Let A = the set of even numbers = {2, 4, 6}
and let B = the set of numbers less than four = {1, 2, 3}

U
A B
6 1
4 2 3

Because set A = {2, 4, 6} we draw a loop around those elements. Because set B = {1, 2, 3} we
draw a loop around those elements. Note that we only wrote the number 2 down once. Since it
is in both sets it needs to be inside both loops. The number five is left outside of both sets,
because it is in neither set. But 5 is part of our Universe so we must include it in our Venn
diagram.

If we want to add these two sets together we would take their union. We use this symbol .
We place the union symbol between the two sets:
= {1, 2, 3, 4, 6}
Note that contains any number that is even (in set A) OR less than 4 (in set B). On the
Venn diagram the union contains all the elements that are inside either loop.

U
A B
6 1
4 2 3

5
 277

The union of sets A and B is a new set that contains all the elements
of set A mixed with all the elements of set B. The union is denoted:
𝐴 ∪ 𝐵 and consists of all elements that are either in set A OR in set B
OR in both.

The phrase “A or B” should be thought of as the union: 𝐴 ∪ 𝐵. To be a member you must either
be in A or in B (or both). This is the same way we typically use the word “or” outside of a math
class. For example to join the Cal Tech Credit union you must be an employee of Cal Tech or
JPL. Paul works for JPL so he can join the credit union. Kenji works at Cal Tech so he can also
join. Mary works part time at both locations, she can also join the credit union.

In general, the Union of two sets A and B is: 𝐴∪𝐵

A B

The Union of two sets is a new set that contains all

the elements of the original two sets.

We will use this idea many times answering our probability questions.

Example 1: Let U = {a standard deck of cards}, H = {all the hearts}, and F = {all the face
cards}. What is ?
To take the union of two sets means to combine them into one new set that contains all
the elements that are in either set. So is all the cards that are either hearts OR
face cards (or both, like the king of hearts).
= {all the hearts; the King, Queen, Jack of clubs; the King, Queen, Jack of spades;
the King, Queen, Jack of diamonds}

Example 2: Let IA = {the students enrolled in Math 112} and F = {female students at SCC}.
What is IA F  ?
The union of these two sets, IA F , would contain any student who is either enrolled in
Math 112 or is a female student at SCC. The males enrolled in Math 112 would be part
of this set, because they are elements of set IA. Women enrolled in Math 20: Calculus
would also be in the union because they are female students at SCC.
 278

The Intersection of Two Sets

Let’s go back to U = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}, A = {2, 4, 6} and B = {1, 2, 3}. The intersection of
two sets is denoted with the symbol: . A intersect B, , is the set containing only those
elements that are in BOTH A and B. = {2} because 2 is the only element that appears in
both sets.

The intersection of two sets is a set that consists of only the

elements that are both in A and B at the same time. This set is
denoted: 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵.

The phrase “A and B” is a condition that means your element needs to be in both A and B
simultaneously.

If we look at our Venn diagram, we see that 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 A B

is comprised of elements in the overlap of the two
6 1
sets A and B.
4 2 3

is the region where the two

sets overlap. 5

In general, the intersection of two sets A and B is:

 279

Example 3: Let U = {a standard deck of cards}, H = {all the hearts}, and F = {all the face
cards}. What is ?
The intersection of these two sets would be only those cards that are in both A and B.
= {King of hearts, Queen of hearts, Jack of hearts}.

If two sets don’t have any common (or shared) elements, we say the sets are disjoint.

When a set has nothing in it we say it is empty. The set with nothing in it is called the empty set
and has two standard notations: { } and Æ .
Thus, A and B are disjoint if 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 = { }

Example 4: Let U = {a standard deck of cards}, H = {all the hearts}, and F = {all the face
cards}. Are H and F disjoint?
No, they are not disjoint because as we saw in the previous example that there are three
cards that are in both sets.

Example 5: Let U = {a standard deck of cards}, H = {all the hearts}, and C = {all the clubs}.
Are H and C disjoint?
Yes, they are disjoint because there is NO single card in the deck that has both a red heart
and a black club on it.
 280

The Complement of a Set

Let’s continue with U = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}, A = {2, 4, 6} and B = {1, 2, 3}. The complement
of A is written: A or A and is the set containing all the elements from our universe that are NOT
inside set A. Since set A is all the even numbers in our universe, then A complement must be all
the odd numbers: A  = {1, 3, 5}.

The complement of a set is a set that that consists of all

elements in the sample space that are NOT in A. This set is
denoted: A or A .

Using our Venn diagram to find the complement of set B we compare set B to our Sample Space
or Universe,
Sample Space U = {1,2,3,4,5,6}
B = {1,2,3}
B  B  {4, 5, 6} 𝐵ത
1
B
6
4 2 3

Example 6: Let U = {a standard deck of cards} and F = {all the face cards}. Are F and F
disjoint?
Since set F is all the Face Cards, F is the set of all the cards that are NOT face cards.
F = {King, Queen, Jack from each suit}
F = {Ace, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10 from each suit}
Yes, these two sets are disjoint. In set notation:

Note: This is true for every set and its complement! Any set is disjoint from its complement.
 281

Classwork 5.2 A B
Draw some Venn Diagrams like this.
Then color in the indicated region on each Venn Diagram.

1. A B 4. A B

2. A B 5. A B
6. A B
3. A B

Suppose our sample space is S = {0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10}, P = {2, 3, 5, 7} and

E = {0, 2, 4, 6, 8, 10}
7. Draw a Venn diagram to represent this situation. Be sure to include all the elements of
our sample space.
8.
9.
10. What do you notice about your answers to the last two problems?
11. 15.
12. E ¢ = 16.
13. E = 17.
14. P = 18.
19. Create a new set A, from our set S, that is disjoint with set P.
20. Create a new set B, from our set S, that is disjoint with set E.

Suppose our universe, U, is a standard deck of cards. Let set H = {the hearts}, F = {face cards},
R = {red cards}, and B = {black cards}. Describe the elements (cards) for each of the following:
21.
22.
23. Are H and B disjoint? Explain your answer.
24. Are F and H disjoint? Explain your answer.
25. B = 29.
26.
27.
28.
 282

Exercises 5.2
1. Write definitions of sample space, union, intersection, disjoint and complement in
your own words. Give examples.

Suppose the sample space is {1, 2 , 3 , 4 , 5 , 6 , 7 , 8 , 9 , 10}.

Let A = the set of even numbers in the sample space.
Let B = the set of numbers that are prime (a number is prime if the only numbers that divide
into it without a remainder are 1 and itself. For example, 17 is prime because only 1 and 17
divide into it without a remainder. 14 is not prime, because 2 divides into 14 without a
remainder. So does 7.)

2. Draw a Venn diagram to represent this situation. Be sure to include all the elements of
our sample space.
3. 𝐴∩𝐵 =
4. 𝐴∪𝐵 =
5. 𝐴̅ =
6. 𝐵ത =

7. Are B and B disjoint? Explain.

8. Are A and B disjoint? Explain.
9. Is a set and its complement always disjoint? Why or why not?
10. Create a new set C so that C is disjoint from A.
11. Create a new set D so that the intersection of B and D is empty.
12. Create a new set E that is NOT disjoint with B.

Let U = {all the people living in the Bay Area}, A = {all the 49er fans}, D ={all the Raider
fans}. Describe which teams the people in each of the following sets like or don’t like.
Remember the union relates to “or” and the intersection to “and”
13. A=
14. D¢ =
15.
16.
17.
18.
19.

20.
 283

5.3 Working with Sets and Tables

Using Tables to describe Sets
Most of the time we will be most interested in how many elements are in each set. We can use
tables to easily represent this. For example here is a table showing how many cards belong in
each category if we are looking at face cards and clubs.

Not a
Club Totals
Club
Face Card 3 9 12
Not a Face Card 10 30 40
Totals 13 39 52
Note that if you add down the total column on the right you get 52 cards, to whole deck. This is
also true if you add across the bottom row. The rows separate our deck in Face Cards and non-
Face Cards. The columns separate the Clubs from the other cards.
Using the table we can answer lots of questions.
Example 1: Let U = {our deck of cards}, F = {the face cards}, and C = {the clubs}. How many
cards are in each of the following categories?
 How many clubs are there? From the table above we get: 3 + 10 = 13
 How many cards are not clubs? From the table above we get: 9 + 30 = 39
 How many cards are clubs and face cards? 3 (recall: this is the intersection, )
 How many cards are clubs or face cards? We need to count any card that is either a
club OR a face card. 3 + 10 + 9 = 22 (recall: this is the union of the sets, )
 How many cards are neither clubs nor face cards? 30

Example 2: Use the table to answer the following questions.

Democrat Republican Totals
Age ≤ 55 45 29 74
Age > 55 28 80 108
Totals 73 109 182
 How many Republicans are there? __________
 How many Democrats? _________
 How many people over age 55? _________
 How many people are 55 or younger? ___________
 How many people are Democrats and over 55? ___________
 How many are Democrats or over 55? __________
 How many are neither Republicans nor over 55? ______
 284

Classwork 5.3a
Use this table to answer the following Not a
Diamond Totals
questions. Let D = {diamonds} and Diamond
F = {face cards} Face Card 3 9 12
1. How many are diamonds? Not a Face Card 10 30 40
2. How many are not face cards?
Totals 13 39 52
3. How many are diamonds and face
cards?
4. How many are in the complement of D?
5. How many are in D F ?
6. How many are in D F ?
7. How many are in D F  ?
8. How many are in D F ?
9. How many are in F D ?
10. How many are in F D ?
11. How many are in F  D ?
12. How many are in F D ?

Use this table to answer the following questions. Let M = {students taking Math} and
E = {students taking English}
Taking Not taking
Totals
Math Math
13. How many are taking both?
14. How many are taking neither? Taking English 43 19 62
15. How many are taking English, but Not taking Eng. 10 30 40
are not taking Math?
16. How many students are not taking Totals 53 49 102
Math?
17. How many are taking Math, but are not taking English?
18. How many are taking either Math or English?
19. How many are in M E ?
20. How many are in M E ?
21. How many are in M E ?
22. How many are in M E ?
23. How many are in M E ?
24. How many are in M E ?
25. Of the students taking English, how many are taking Math?
26. Of the students taking Math, how many are not taking English?
27. Of the students not taking Math, how many are taking English?
 285

Exercises 5.3a
Use this table to answer the following questions. Let D = {Democrats} and V = {Voted in the
last election}
1. How many people did not Democrat Republican Totals
vote? Voted 85 45 130
2. How many people are
Republicans? Did not Vote 37 12 49
3. How many people are Totals 122 57 179
Democrats who did not vote?
4. How many people did vote, but are not Democrats?
5. Of the people who voted, how many are Democrats?
6. How many people are Republicans who did vote?
7. Of the Republicans, how many did not vote?
8. How many are in D V ?
9. How many are in D V ?
10. How many are in D V ?
11. How many are in D V
Use this table to answer the following questions. Let Y = {Age < 30} and M = {support
marijuana legalization}
12. How many people do support Support Don’t Support Totals
marijuana legalization? Age < 30 120 75 195
13. Of the people under 30, how Age ≥ 30 80 92 172
many support legalization?
14. How many people who are 30 or Totals 200 167 367
older do not support legalization?
15. How many people are in Y M ?
16. How many people are in Y M ?
17. How many people are in Y M ?
18. How many people are in Y M ?
19. How many people are in Y M ?
20. How many people are under 30 or support legalization?
21. How many people are under 30 and support legalization?
22. How many people are in Y =
23. How many people are in the complement of M?
24. Are Y and M disjoint? Explain.
25. Look back at #13,16, and 21. Is it a coincidence that they all have the same answer?
26. What do you notice about #14 and 15?
27. What do you notice about # 19 and 20?
 286

Making Tables
Example 3: Use the following information to create a table representing the results of our
survey. In our survey we asked if people spoke Spanish or Chinese. A total of 173 people
were surveyed. 45 people speak both languages. A total of 65 people speak Chinese and 90
do not speak either language.
First we start by making our table.
Spanish Not Spanish Totals
Chinese
Not Chinese
Totals
Then we start filling in what we know. “45 people speak both languages,” so we
know 45 goes in the upper left box. And “A total of 173 people were surveyed,” tells
us that 173 goes in the lower right box.
Spanish Not Spanish Totals
Chinese 45
Not Chinese
Totals 173
We know there is a total of 65 people who speak Chinese, so we put 65 in the upper
right.
Spanish Not Spanish Totals
Chinese 45 65
Not Chinese
Totals 173

We need 20 more people in the top row because we solved: 45 + x = 65.

Spanish Not Spanish Totals

Chinese 45 20 65
Not Chinese
Totals 173
 287

90 people do not speak either language, so we need 90 below the 20. This is where
“Not Spanish” overlaps with “Not Chinese”.

Spanish Not Spanish Totals

Chinese 45 20 65
Not Chinese 90
Totals 173

Adding down the “Not Spanish” column gives us a total of 110. We can calculate the
missing number in the column on the far right by solving 65 + x = 173, so x = 108.

Spanish Not Spanish Totals

Chinese 45 20 65
Not Chinese 90 108
Totals 110 173

We can complete the “Not Chinese” row by solving: x + 90 = 108, so x = 18. And that
will let us get the total in the “Spanish” column.

Spanish Not Spanish Totals

Chinese 45 20 65
Not Chinese 18 90 108
Totals 63 110 173
 288

Classwork 5.3b
Use the given information to make a 4 by 4 table that displays all the information, including
the totals.
1. We surveyed 150 people. We asked them two questions: Do you support Trump?
Are you more than 25 years old? Here are the results:
a. A total of 95 people supported Trump, 55 did not.
b. A total of 50 people are over 25 years old, the rest are not.
c. 35 people who are over 25 supported Trump.
d. 15 people who are over 25 did NOT support Trump.
e. Of the people who are 25 or less, 60 of them do support Trump.

2. We went back and asked the same 150 people two more questions: Are you married?
Are you a Democrat? Here are the results:
a. 65 are Democrats
b. 25 of the Democrats are married, the rest are not
c. 85 are not Democrats
d. 90 people are married
e. 20 people are not married and are not Democrats
 289

Exercises 5.3b
Use the given information to make a 4 by 4 table that displays all the information, including the
totals. There is more than one correct table, depending on how you label your rows and
columns.
1. We surveyed 200 people. We asked them: Are you 21 or older? Have you ever
consumed alcohol? Here are the results:
a. 65 people are 21 or older and have consumed alcohol
b. 50 people are under 21 and have consumed alcohol
c. 30 of the people 21 or older have not consumed alcohol
d. 85 people said they had not consumed alcohol

2. We surveyed 355 people. We asked them: Did you vote in the last presidential election?
Are you a registered voter? Here are the results:
a. Only 130 of the registered voters actually voted
b. There was a total of 230 registered voters in our sample
c. 125 people were not registered and did not vote
d. If you are not registered, you cannot vote

3. We surveyed 442 people. We asked: Do you support the Raiders? Do you support the
49ers? Here are the results:
a. 200 people did not support either team.
b. 87 people support both teams.
c. 92 support the Raiders, but not the 49ers
d. A total of 263 do not support the Raiders.

4. We surveyed 239 travelers at SFO. We asked if they had been to Tibet or to Nepal. Here
are the results:
a. 32 people had been to both
b. 100 had been to neither
c. A total of 150 had not been to Nepal
d. 57 had been to Nepal, but not to Tibet

5. We surveyed 132 students at SCC. We asked if they were taking either Math or Spanish.
a. 17 were taking both classes
b. 65 were taking neither class
c. Only 29 were taking Math
 290

5.4 Working with Venn Diagrams and Tables

We can use Venn Diagrams to organize data the same way we used tables. Instead of a table like
this:
Democrat Republican Totals
Age ≤ 55 45 29 74
Age > 55 28 80 108
Totals 73 109 182

We can organize the same information using a Venn Diagram. We only need two sets, one for
political party and one set for age. The person making the Venn Diagram needs to decide to
focus on either Democrats or Republicans and either people over 55 or the younger folks. If
there are only two options and you make one set for Democrats then the Republicans are outside
the set of Democrats.
Example 1: Use Democrats and people 55 or younger as your two sets and make a Venn
Diagram that represents the data in the table above.
We start by drawing our Venn Diagram and labeling our sets.

Democrats Age ≤ 55

From the table we can see that 45 people are Democrats and are 55 or under, so they go
in the intersection of our two sets.

Democrats Age ≤ 55

45

Working across the top row of the table we see there are 29 Republicans who are 55 or
under. They have to be inside the set on the right, but not inside the Democrat set.
 291

Like this:
Democrats Age ≤ 55

45 29

The table also tells us that there are 28 Democrats who are over 55. They go in the left
portion of the Democrat set. The last 80 people are older Republicans. They go outside
both sets.

Democrats Age ≤ 55

28 45 29

80

NOTE: When making Venn Diagrams there is always more than one possible answer,
depending on which sets you choose to focus on. The location of the four values may change,
but any correct answer should have the same four numbers. You want to choose your two sets so
that each one represents one category or question. We do not need a set for “over 55 years old”
and another set for “55 or younger” because they are complements of each other. We assume the
same for Democrats and Republicans, we assume everyone outside the Democrat set is a
Republican.

Often there are more than just two possibilities. For example: Democrat, Republican, and
Independent. In those situations we need more sets.

Democrat Republican

Independent

In this book we will focus on Venn Diagrams that can be completed with only two sets.
 292

Classwork 5.4
For each problem, create a Venn Diagram that represents the data given.
1. Redo the example above using Republicans and Age > 55 as your two sets.

2. What do you notice about your answer to #1 and the example above?

3. Use Democrat and Voted as your two sets.

Democrat Republican Totals
Voted 85 45 130
Did not Vote 37 12 49
Totals 122 57 179

4. Use Diamond and Face Card as your two sets.

Not a
Diamond Totals
Diamond
Face Card 3 9 12
Not a Face Card 10 30 40
Totals 13 39 52

5. We surveyed 160 people. We asked them two questions: Do you support Trump? Are
you more than 25 years old? Here are the results:
a. A total of 105 people supported Trump, 55 did not.
b. A total of 50 people are over 25 years old, the rest are not.
c. 35 people who are over 25 supported Trump.
d. 15 people who are over 25 did NOT support Trump.

6. We surveyed 239 travelers at SFO. We asked if they had been to Tibet or to Nepal. Here
are the results:
a. 32 people had been to both
b. 100 had been to neither
c. A total of 150 had not been to Nepal
d. 57 had been to Nepal, but not to Tibet
 293

Exercises 5.4
Create a Venn Diagram that represents the data. Remember that there is more than one
possible correct answer depending on which characteristics you focus on.

1. Taking Not 2. Don’t

taking Totals Support Totals
Math Support
Math
Age < 30 120 75 195
Taking
43 19 62 Age ≥ 30 80 92 172
English
Not taking Totals 200 167 367
10 30 40
Eng.
Totals 53 49 102

3. We went back and asked 150 people two questions: Are you married? Are you a
Democrat? Here are the results:
a. 65 are Democrats
b. 25 of the Democrats are married, the rest are not
c. 85 are not Democrats
d. 90 people are married
e. 20 people are not married and are not Democrats

4. We surveyed 442 people. We asked: Do you support the Raiders? Do you support the
49ers? Here are the results:
a. 200 people did not support either team.
b. 87 people support both teams.
c. 92 support the Raiders, but not the 49ers
d. A total of 263 do not support the Raiders.

5. We surveyed 132 students at SCC. We asked if they were taking either Math or Spanish.
a. 17 were taking both classes
b. 65 were taking neither class
c. Only 29 were taking Math
 294

5.5 Probability: The Mathematics of Uncertainty

Introduction
We live in a world filled with uncertainty. We often wish that there were more certainty in life.
It would be nice to know which lottery ticket is the winner. Or that coming to class every day
would guarantee a passing grade. Unfortunately, very little in life is certain.
Probability is a branch of mathematics that was developed to help us understand how likely
something is (or isn’t). The roots of probability are securely based in the art of gambling. Today
probability plays a role in many aspects of our lives.
 What is the chance your child is left handed? Or has blue eyes?
 How likely are you to be in a car accident?
 How much you will be charged for car insurance?
 Are you more likely to be hurt by a terrorist or stuck by lightning?
 Are you safer in a car or in an airplane?
 How likely are you to win the lottery?
All these questions can be answered using probability.

Objectives
1. You will be familiar with the terms experiment, outcome, event, simple event and sample
space.
2. You will understand the definition of probability and be able to do calculations.
3. You will be able to calculate probabilities involving a deck of cards and an American
Roulette wheel.

Definitions and Terminology

An experiment is a situation involving chance that results in some sort of

outcome. An experiment can be almost anything. Many of our experiments will
involve rolling dice, flipping coins, and picking cards from a standard deck of cards.

An outcome is a single observable result of an experiment. We use both terms

interchangeably. If someone is hiding a piece of candy in one of their hands, and
we are choosing which hand we think it is in, are only two possibilities: it is in their
right hand or left hand. Each single result is considered an outcome for that
experiment.

The set or group of all outcomes for an experiment is called the sample space.
Traditionally we use the letter S to represent our sample space, and we list all the
outcomes inside braces { } because they are sets. Recalling our work with sets, the
Sample Space is like the Universe.
 295

Definitions and Terminology, continued

An event is one or more outcomes of an experiment. We usually use capital letters

like E and F to represent events. Events are sets, therefore we list the outcomes
included in that event inside braces { }. An event containing only one outcome is
called a simple event. When an event consists of more than one outcome we call it a
compound event.

Example 1:
We roll a six-sided die. The act of rolling the die is the experiment. The outcomes are
getting a 1, getting a 2, getting a 3, getting a 4, getting a 5, and getting a 6. The sample
space is S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}.
There are many possible events including:
 Getting a 5: F = {5} is a simple event
 Getting an even number: E = {2, 4, 6} is a compound event
 Getting an odd number: O = {1, 3, 5}
 Getting a 1, 2, or 3: A = {1, 2, 3}
 Getting a 7: an impossible event because 7 is not in our
sample space, so we write { } or Ø for an empty set.
 Getting a number that is less than 8: a certain event because all the numbers in
our sample space are less than 8
 … and many more …
Note: The “names” given to these events: F, E, O, and A are arbitrary and can be chosen
or changed by whoever is doing the experiment.

The probability of an event occurring is the likelihood of an event occurring

measured as a number between 0 and 1. When each outcome is equally likely:

number of ways it can happen

Probability of an event occurring =
total number of outcomes

0 ≤ Probability ≤ 1
If an event is guaranteed to occur, its probability is 1. If an event is impossible, its probability is
0. Since fractions can be converted to percentages, often people think of a probability as being
between 0% and 100% (or between 0 and 1). Probabilities are NEVER negative and are never
larger than one.
 296

Before starting any probability problems it is very important that we understand our experiment
and our sample space. Our sample space tells us how many outcomes there are in total, and our
events are always subsets of the sample space. We will be focusing on experiments where each
outcome is equally likely.

Example 2:

Using our die rolling experiment from example 1, calculate the following probabilities.
Because our sample space, S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}, has six equally likely outcomes in it,
therefore our denominator will always be 6.
1
 The probability of getting a 5. The probability is 6 because the 5 only appears
once out of the six possible numbers.
 The probability of getting an even number. Because this is a compound event
3 1
{2, 4, 6} we have to include all three possibilities. The probability is 6 = 2
3 1
 The probability of getting an odd number. The probability is also 6 = 2 because
there are also three outcomes in this event {1, 3, 5}
 The probability of getting a 7. This is an impossible event because 7 is not in our
sample space. This means the probability is ZERO.
 The probability of getting a number that is less than 8. This is a certain event
because all the numbers in our sample space are less than 8. The probability is
6
= 1
6

If you were to stop just about anyone on the street and ask them “what’s the probability that
1
when I flip this coin it lands on heads?” they would probably say 50 – 50 or 50% or maybe 2.
And as long as you were holding a fair coin they would be correct. The chance (or probability)
1
that a coin lands on heads is 2. That does NOT mean that if you flip a coin twice you will get
one head and one tail! The Law of Large Numbers tells us that the more times you flip a coin,
the closer you will get to having it land on heads half the time and tails the other half. But there
is no guarantee that even with 1,000,000 flips it will land on head exactly 500,000 time and
500,000 times on tails.

In experimental probabilities (or relative frequencies) we have to run the experiment many times
and collect lots of data. We will do a lab where we do many experiments. Most of your
homework, on the other hand, will involve using classical (or theoretic) probabilities.
 297

Example 3:

Our experiment is picking a single card from a standard deck of cards. Aces are low. (See the
beginning of this chapter for more information about a deck of cards.)
 How big is the sample space? 52, because our deck contains 52 cards.
1
 What is the probability the card picked is the king of hearts? P(king of hearts) = 52
1
 What is the probability the card picked is the king of spades? P(king of spades) = 52
4 1
 What is the probability the card is a king? P(king from any suit) = 52 = 13
20 5
 What is the probability the card is above an eight? P(above an eight) = =
52 13

ODDS

We’ve been working with probabilities expressed as decimals or fractions. When you go to a casino or a
race track, you will hear people talk about odds like 1 to 3. Odds and probability are closely related.

When we calculate a probability, we are comparing the

outcomes we are interested in to the entire sample
space. When we talk about the odds of an outcome or
event happening we separate the sample space into two
disjoint sets: the outcome(s) we want (the ones where
we win) compared to all the other outcomes.
 298

To calculate the odds, we look at the ratio of the number of simple events where we win compared to the
number of simple events where we lose. This can be written as:
# of winning simple events to # of losing simple events
or
# of winning simple events : # of losing simple events

There is a direct link between Odds and the complement of a set. To compute the odds you compare how
many objects are in your set to how many are in the complement of your set. You can simplify the ratio,
just like you can simplify fractions, 2 to 4 can be simplified to 1 to 2. Similarly, 18:2 can be simplified to
9:1

Example 4: When rolling a six sided die, what are the odds of getting a number less than 3?

We take our sample space = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}

and break it up into two disjoint sets:

1. the simple events where we win (getting a

number less than 3) which consists of {1,
2}
2. the simple events where we lose (getting a
number that is NOT less than 3) which
consists of {3, 4, 5, 6}

Example 5: If our experiment is picking one card from a standard deck what is the probability you get a
face card AND what are the odds you get a face card?
12
Since there are 52 cards total and only 12 face cards the probability is
52
To calculate the odds we need to count how many cards are not face cards (the complement). There are
52 total and 12 face cards, so there must be 52 – 12 = 40 cards that are not face cards. Therefore the
odds your card has a face on it are 12 : 40.
 299

Classwork 5.5
Using a standard deck of cards & picking just one card write both the probability and the odds for each
event. Consider Aces as high cards. Review the deck of cards at the beginning of this chapter if needed.
Give probabilities as fractions, un-simplified.

1. Picking a Heart
2. Picking a card that is NOT a Heart
3. What do you notice about # 1 and 2?
4. Picking a face card
5. Picking a red face card
6. Picking a card greater than 9
7. Picking a card greater than or equal to 9
8. Picking a card less than
 300

Using our American Roulette wheel write both the probability and the odds for each event.
(see the beginning of the chapter for more information about Roulette.) Remember that 0 and 00
are not counted as “low” nor “even” nor “high”. They are always included in the sample space.
Give probabilities as fractions, un-simplified.
9. The ball lands on a green space
10. The ball lands on a black space
11. The ball lands on red or green space
12. The ball lands on a number that is at least 7
13. The ball lands on a number that is at most 7
14. The ball lands on a number that is no more than 7
15. The ball lands on a number that is no less than 7
16. The ball lands on a number that is more than 40

From a bag that contains 5 red tokens, 6 green tokens, and 2 blue tokens, someone will reach in
and pick one at random, without looking. Write probabilities as fractions, un-simplified, and as
percentages rounded to the nearest tenth of a percent.
17. What is the probability you get a green token?
18. What are the odds you get a green token?
19. What are the odds you do not get a green token?
20. What percentage of the time will you get a red or a green token?
21. What is the probability you get red and a green token?
22. If R ={the red tokens} what is the probability your token is from R ?
23. What are the odds you get a token from R ?
24. What percentage of the time will you get a token from R ?
 301

Exercises 5.5
Using a standard deck of cards & picking just one card write both the probability and the
odds for each event. Consider Aces as high cards. Review the deck of cards at the beginning of
this chapter if needed. Give probabilities as fractions, un-simplified.

1. Picking a Jack
2. Picking a Club
3. Picking a Jack and a Club
4. Picking a Jack OR a Club
5. Picking a card that is less than 5
6. Picking a card that is less than or equal to 5
7. Picking a card that is not more than 5

Using our American Roulette wheel write both the probability and the odds for each event.
(see the beginning of the chapter for more information about Roulette.) Remember that 0 and
00 are not “low”. Give probabilities as fractions, un-simplified. Don’t count 0 or 00 as low.
8. The ball lands on the number 13
9. The ball lands on a green space
10. The ball lands on a green space or the number 13
11. The ball lands on a number that is not more than 6
12. The ball lands on a number that is less than 6

From a bag that contains 8 red tokens, 7 green tokens, and 4 blue tokens, someone will reach in
and pick one at random, without looking. Write probabilities as fractions, un-simplified, and as
percentages rounded to the nearest tenth of a percent. Let R = the set of red tokens, G = the set
of green tokens, and B = the set of blue tokens.
13. What is the probability your token is in R?
14. What is the probability your token is in R ?
15. What is the probability your token is in ?
16. What is the probability your token is in ?
17. What is the probability your token is in G ¢ ?
18. What is the probability your token is purple?
19. What is the probability your token is Blue or Green?
20. What is the probability your token is Blue and Green?
 302

5.6 Trees and Probability

We often use tree diagrams to help us organize our sample spaces when an experiment consists
of more than one thing. Tree diagrams are really just flow charts that show us all the possible
outcomes for our experiment. For example say Linda is packing for a trip. She plans to take 2
pairs of pants (jeans & tan pants) and 3 shirts (red, white, & black). Every morning on her trip
she will reach into her suit case and pull out something to wear.

suitcase pants Shirts Outfits

Jeans +
white
white shirt

Jeans + red
Jeans red
shirt

Jeans +
black
black shirt

Starts
packing
Tan pants +
white
white shirt

Tan pants +
Tan pants red
red shirt

Tan pants +
black
black shirt

1
 What is the probability she is wearing tan pants and a black shirt? The answer is 6
because out of the six outfits, she can make only one of them that matches our
description.
2 1
 What is the probability she is wearing the red shirt? It is 6 = 3
Here is another example of a tree that represents the birth of two children.

1st Child 2nd Child Outcomes

Girl Girl, Girl

Girl
Boy Girl, Boy
Start
Girl Boy, Girl
Boy
Boy Boy, Boy
 303

Classwork 5.6
Finish filling in this tree diagram to show all the outcomes in an experiment when we flip
three coins: a penny, a nickel, and a quarter.

Penny Nickel Quarter Sample Space

Heads

Start

Tails
Heads
Tails

1. How many outcomes are possible? List all the outcomes.

2. What is the probability you get three heads?

3. What is the probability you get two heads and one tail in this order: HTH?

4. What is the probability you get two heads and one tail in any order?

5. What is the probability you get two heads?

6. What is the probability you get at least two heads?

7. What is the probability you get at most two heads?

 304

5.7 Tables and Probability

Tables that show us the number of people in each category are called Frequency Tables. We can
use these tables to help us answer probability questions.

Example 1: Use the information in the table to answer the following questions. Give
probabilities as fractions and rounded to the nearest hundredth.
a) What is the probability someone chosen at random is a Democrat?
b) What is the probability someone chosen at random is a Democrat who did vote?
c) What is the probability someone chosen at random did not vote?
d) What is the probability someone chosen at random did vote and is Republican?
e) What is the probability someone chosen at random voted or is a Republican?

Democrat Republican Totals

Voted 85 45 130
Did not Vote 37 12 49
Totals 122 57 179

a) There are 122 Democrats out of 179 people so the probability we choose a Democrat is
122
» 0.68
179
b) There are 85 Democrats who voted out of 179 people so the probability we choose a
85
Democrat who voted is » 0.47
179
c) There are 49 people who did not vote so the probability we choose a
49
non-voter is » 0.27
179
45
d) There are 45 Republicans who voted so the probability is » 0.25
179
e) We need to count anyone who voted (85 + 45) and all the Republicans (45 + 12). We do
not want to count the 45 Republicans who voted twice, 85 + 45 + 12 = 142 so the
142
probability is » 0.79
179
 305

We can also use tables to help us answer probability questions when we know a little something
about the person chosen at random. For example in part a) above if we knew the person chosen
had voted would that change the probability they are a Democrat? Yes, it would! Now we
would work only with the first column of the table. Instead of looking at all 179 people we
would know that the person was one of the 130 voters. This changes our denominator to 130.
And our numerator would be the 85 Democrats who did vote. Knowing someone voted, the
85
probability that they are a Democrat is » 0.65, it reduced the probability slightly. Looking
130
at the decimal approximation makes it easier for us to compare the two probabilities.

Example 2: Use the information in the table to answer the following questions. Give
probabilities as fractions and rounded to the nearest hundredth.
a) Knowing someone is a Democrat, what is the probability they voted?
b) Knowing someone is a Democrat, what is the probability the did not vote?
c) Given that someone did not vote, what is the probability they are a Republican?
d) Given that someone did vote, what is the probability they are a Republican?
e) Are voters more likely to be Republican than non-voters?

Democrat Republican Totals

Voted 85 45 130
Did not Vote 37 12 49
Totals 122 57 179

a) Knowing we have a Democrat puts us in the left hand column of our table. There are 122
85
Democrats, and 85 of them voted so the probability is » 0.70
122

b) We are still in the left hand column of our table. There are 122 Democrats and 37 of
37
them did not vote so the probability is » 0.30 Notice how our last two answers add
122
up to 100%. This is because there are only two options for our Democrats: vote and not
voting so these two groups must include all of our Democrats.

c) We are in the middle row (did not vote). There is a total of 49 people and 12 of them are
12
Republicans so the probability is » 0.24
49
45
d) There were 130 people who voted and 45 of those were Republican:  0.35
130
e) Yes, voters are more likely to be Republican than those who did not vote, 35% vs 24%.
 306

Tables can also represent probability distributions. A probability distribution is just a table
that lists the different outcomes and the corresponding probabilities. As always, each probability
is between 0 and 1. You’ll also notice that if you add up all the probabilities, the sum is equal to
one. This is because the table lists every possible situation that could occur.

# of Probabil
Example 3: Consider the probability distribution on the right. Successes ity
a) Calculate the probability of getting 1 or 2 successes.
0 0.4
b) Calculate the probability of getting less than 2 successes.
1 0.3
c) The probability of getting a 1 OR 2 is found by just adding 2 0.2
the two corresponding probabilities. 0.3 + 0.2 = 0.5
3 0.1
d) The probability of getting less than 2 successes is the same as the probability of getting
0 OR 1 success. The probability of having 0 OR 1 successes is found by just adding the
two corresponding probabilities. 0.4 + 0.3 = 0.7
 307

Classwork 5.7
Use the table to answer the following questions.
Give probabilities as un-simplified fractions and as Spanish Not Spanish Totals
decimals rounded to the nearest hundredth. Chinese 45 20 65

1. What is the probability a student is taking Not Chinese 18 90 108

Spanish? Totals 63 110 173
2. What are the ODDS a student is taking Chinese?
3. What are the ODDS a student is taking both languages?
4. What is the probability a student is taking neither language?
5. What is the probability a student is taking at least one language?
6. What is the probability a student is in Chinese Spanish?
7. What is the probability a student is in Chinese Spanish?
8. Given that a student is taking Chinese, what is the probability they are also taking Spanish?
9. Looking at #1 and #8, does knowing someone is taking Chinese change the probability they
are taking Spanish?
10. Give that a student is NOT taking Chinese, what is the probability they are taking Spanish?
11. Looking at #8 and #10, are students taking Chinese more likely to be taking Spanish than
those not taking Chinese?
12. Knowing that someone is taking Spanish, what is the probability that they are taking
Chinese?
13. Knowing that someone is not taking Spanish, what is the probability that they are taking
Chinese?
14. Are students taking Spanish more likely to be taking Chinese, than those that are not taking
Spanish?

Commission in $ Probability
15. What is the probability a person makes $1,500 or more
in commissions?
0  x  500 0.15

16. What is the probability a person makes less than 500  x  1, 000 0.35
$1,000?
1, 000  x  1,500 0.4
17. What is the probability a person makes at least $500,
but less than $1,000? x  1, 500 0.1
18. What is the probability a person makes less than
$1,500?
19. What is the probability a person makes at least $500?
 308

Exercises 5.7
Use the tables to answer the following questions. Give probabilities as un-simplified fractions and as
decimals rounded to the nearest hundredth. Give percentages rounded to the nearest tenth of a percent.

Do Believe in Ghosts Do not Believe in Ghosts

Male 30 16

Female 61 23

1. What is the probability someone believes in ghosts?

2. Looking only at the females, what is the probability that a woman believes in ghosts?
3. Looking only at the males, what is the probability that a man believes in ghosts?
4. Are females more likely to believe in ghosts, than men? Why?
5. Given that someone believes in ghosts, what is the probability they are male?
6. Given that someone does not believe in ghosts, what is the probability they are male?
7. Are believers more likely to be male than non-believers? Explain, using probability.

Pro-Life Pro-Choice

Age > 45 40 34

Age ≤ 45 30 31

8. What is the probability someone is Pro-Life?

9. What is the probability someone is over 45 years old?
10. What is the probability someone is over 45 AND is Pro-Choice?
11. What is the probability someone is over 45 OR is Pro-Choice?
12. Looking only at those people who are 45 or younger, what is the probability that they are Pro-Choice?
13. Looking only those people who are over 45, what is the probability that they are Pro-Choice?
14. Are people over 45 more likely to be Pro-Choice? Explain.
 309

15. What percentage of people are Pro-life?

Pro-life Pro-choice
16. What percentage of males are Pro-life?
Female 14 23
17. What percentage of females are Pro-life?
18. Are males more likely to be Pro-life than women are? Male 11 18
Explain.
19. Are people who are Pro-choice more likely to be female than people who are Pro-life? Use
percentages to support your answer.

SUV Sports Car

20. What percentage of males own sports cars?
21. What percentage of females own sports cars? Female 21 39
22. Are men more likely to own a sports car than women are? Male 135 84
23. Are people who own SUVs more likely to be female than
people who own sports cars are? Use percentages to support your answer.

Consider the probability distribution for a storm to turn into a Category Probability
hurricane of a given category. A category 5 hurricane is the 0 (dissipated) 3%
strongest (wind speed of 155 mph or more) and category 1 is the 1 18%
weakest (wind speed of 74 to 95 mph). 2 42%
3 28%
4 7%
24. What’s the probability that a hurricane will turn into a 5 2%
category 3 storm?

25. What’s the probability that a hurricane will be a category 3 or stronger storm?

26. What’s the probability that a hurricane will be a category 1 or stronger storm?

27. What’s the probability that a hurricane will be weaker than a category 3 storm?

28. What’s the probability that a hurricane will turn into at most a category 4 storm?

29. What is the probability the storm will become a hurricane that is less than a category 4?

30. What is the probability the storm will become a hurricane that is not more than a category 2 storm?
 310

Consider the probability distribution of number of boys when 5 babies are born. Answer the following
questions according to the probability distribution. Notice that all the probabilities add up to 1.

# of boys Probability
31. What is the probability that exactly four of the babies are boys?
0 0.03125
32. What is the probability that no boys will be born? 1 0.15625
33. What is the probability that at least 4 of the babies will be boys? 2 0.31250
34. What is the probability that at least 2 boys will be born? 3 0.31250

35. What is the probability that at most 4 of the babies will be boys? 4 0.15625
5 0.03125
36. If x = the number of baby boys, what is the probability that x  3 ?

37. If x = the number of baby boys, what is the probability that x  2 ?

38. If x = the number of baby boys, what is the probability that 1  x  3 ?

Pablo’s favorite pick up line is “If I could rearrange the alphabet, I’d put
# of ladies Probability
U and I together”. The probability distribution shows the number of
1 0.018
ladies Pablo approaches before encountering one who reacts positively. 2 0.192
3 0.285
39. What is the probability of Pablo approaching 4 ladies?
4 0.397
40. What is the probability of Pablo approaching more than 4 ladies? 5 0.108

41. What is the probability of Pablo approaching at least 3 ladies?

42. What is the probability of Pablo approaching fewer than 3 ladies?
43. What is the probability he approaches a maximum of 3 ladies?
Give probabilities as un-simplified fractions and rounded to the nearest hundredth. Round percentages to
the nearest tenth of a percent.
Female Male
44. What percentage are female democrats?
Democrat 42 29
45. Are females more likely to be Democrats than males are?
Use probability to support your answer. Republican 50 28
46. Are Republicans more likely to be males than Democrats
are? Use probability to support your answer.
 311

Use this Venn Diagram representing pet

ownership of 56 people to answer the following Bird Iguana
questions. Write percentages rounded to the
nearest tenth of a percent. Give probabilities as 12 15 9
un-simplified fractions.
20
47. What percentage of the group owns birds?
48. What percentage of the group does not
own iguanas?
49. What percentage of the group owns both animals?
50. What percentage of the group owns neither?
51. What percentage of the group is in Bird Iguana?
52. What percentage of the group is in Birds Iguana?
53. What are the ODDS that someone selected at random owns an iguana?
54. What are the ODDS that someone selected at random owns both animals?
55. What are the ODDS that someone selected at random owns a bird, but not an iguana?
56. If we know someone owns a bird, what is the probability they also own an iguana?
57. If we know someone does not own a bird, what is the probability they also own an iguana?
58. Are bird owners more likely to be iguana owners than non-bird owners? Explain using
probabilities.
59. Are iguana owners more likely to be bird owners than non-iguana owners? Explain using
probabilities.