Journal of Animal & Plant Sciences, 32(6): 2022, Page: 1598-1604

Niranjan et al., J. Anim. Plant Sci., 32 (6) 2022

ISSN (print): 1018-7081; ISSN (online): 2309-8694
https://doi.org/10.36899/JAPS.2022.6.0569

MODELING AND FORECASTING OF TEA PRODUCTION IN INDIA

H. K.Niranjan1, B. Kumari2, Y. S. Raghav3, P. Mishra*,4, A. M. G. Al Khatib5, M. Abotaleb6 and Supriya7

1
Agro Economic Research Centre ,JNKVV, Jabalpur-482004, (M.P.)
2 Department of Agricultural Economics, Rashtriya Kisan (PG) College (affiliated to Chaudhary Charan Singh
University, Meerut), Shamli, India
3
Departments of Mathematics, Faculty of Science, Jazan University, KSA.
4
College of Agriculture, Powarkheda, J.N.K.V.V. (M.P.) India
5
Departments of Banking and Insurance, Faculty of Economics, Damascus University, Syria
6
Department of system programming, South Ural State University, Chelyabinsk, Russia
7
Agricultural Economics, ANDUAT, Kumarganj, Ayodhya (U.P), India
*
Corresponding author’s email: [email protected]

ABSTRACT
There are many measures of the importance of a crop to the economy, including its area, output, and yield increase. The
current study will look at the growth rates of tea acreage, output, and yield in India using training data from 1918 to 2015
and testing data from 2016 to 2018. Using the data acquired, the ARIMA model and State Space Models were used to
anticipate the area, production, and yield of tea from 2021 to 2027. According to the data, tea production in India is
expected to reach 607 thousand hectares by2027, reflecting a 3.93 percent increase between 2021 and 2027. India's tea
production is expected to reach 1486 thousand tonnes in2027, reflecting a 10.56 percent increase between 2021 and
2027. However, the tea production in India is expected to reach 2449 kg/hectare between 2021 and2027, reflecting a
4.12% increase over the preceding five-year period. The most essential tools for increasing tea production were area
expansion and yield increase. As a result, the emphasis should be on expanding the area by exploiting available land and
boosting productivity through technological advancements, varietal research, and the enhancement of agricultural
advisory services across India.
Keywords: Growth rate, Trend, Area, Production Tea, India, ARIMA, Forecast, State Space Models.
Published first online June 10, 2022. Published final November 20, 2022

INTRODUCTION people from lower socioeconomic groups, such as women

(Jain, 2011).
A close second to water in terms of global China, India, Sri Lanka, Keyna, and Indonesia
consumption is tea, with roughly two-thirds of the global are the world's top tea producers, together accounting for
population partaking (Khan and Mukhtar, 2013). Tea has 70% of global production (Majumdar and Srirangam,,
a wide variety of products, from teabags to tea leaves, 2010; Zakir, 2017). Tea is a 200-year-old agro-based
flavorings to non-flavorings, black tea to green tea, etc., sector in India under the control of the country's Union
allowing consumers to adjust to their own preferences government. In 1953, the Tea Act was passed,
and tastes (Karwowska, 2019). If the production process establishing the Tea Board to keep tabs on and promote
and post-harvest treatment are followed correctly, tea the country's tea production, processing, exports, and
might be black, green, or oblong in color (Priya et al., imports. India is the world's second-largest tea producer,
2015). In terms of production and consumption, black tea with the second-largest tea plantation area, and the
is the most popular in the world, followed by green tea, fourth-largest tea exporter. India is the world's largest
which is most popular in China and Japan, respectively producer and exporter of tea, occupying around 12% of
(Wierzejska, 2014). Besides its wonderful flavor and the global cultivable land and producing 20% of the
perfume, tea offers a long list of health benefits, world's total output. Although India is ranked 10th in the
including the capacity to slow the growth of tumors, world in terms of tea production, its value yield is over
prevent heart disease and obesity, and lessen the risk of double the world average (Basu et. al., 2010). While the
developing atherosclerosis (Wang et al., 2010). In plantation is indigenous to eastern and northern India, it
addition to its numerous health benefits, tea is an is now grown in both the north and south of the country
important commercial crop in China, helping to drive the (Arya, 2013). North India contributes 86% of the
country's economy forward. In addition, it employs country's overall output; the balance comes from the
southern states of Tamil Nadu and Kerala. About half of
India's tea is produced in Assam, which is the nation's

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leading tea producer. Because huge plantations aren't Dataset is yearly data from 1918 to 2020 about Area,
interested in expanding their land, small-scale tea Production and Yield Rate of Tea in India, we used
planting is more feasible and practical, which is why it training data from 1918 to 2015 and testing last 5 years
hasn't had as much success in non-traditional places from 2016 to 2020.Present study data is collected from
(Kumar et. al., 2008). www.indiastat.com.The flow diagram of present work
Tea production forecasting is critical since the given in figure A
beverage crop is a key component of India's export
Estimation Models: To forecast tea production up to
basket, helping the country gain foreign cash. As a result,
year 2027 and used ARIMA model:
the current study is being undertaken to forecast tea
production in the country. The ARIMA (Autoregressive ARIMA Model: ARIMA models are the most commonly
Integrated Moving Average) model was chosen for used statistical models for time series forecasting because
prediction since it has been utilized and accepted by they describe the autocorrelation in the data (Box et al.,
many other researchers. Mishra et al. (2012) used the 2015). According to their nomenclature, these models are
ARIMA model to anticipate tea production, yield, and grouped into three categories (Autoregressive –
exports in India for the year 2020. Dhekale et al. (2014) Integrated – Moving Average) (p, d, q).
used the ARIMA model to model and forecast tea output The term autoregressive (p) refers to the prediction of a
in West Bengal. They also created a new methodology variable using a linear set of its preceding values; the
for calculating weather and other indices that used direct model of order p can be stated as (Mishra et al., 2021a):
influences from path coefficients and proved to be = + + (4)
superior to the old methods. Rahman (2017) tested eleven Where : parameters of model, : lag order of the
ARIMA models and discovered that ARIMA (1,1,2) was autoregressive process, : error term. Integrated (d)
the best fit for forecasting tea production in Bangladesh. refers to the degree of stationary of a variable that is
Hossain and Abdulla (2015) also conducted tea determined using ADF test (Devi et.al.,2021;Sarder
forecasting in Bangladesh and discovered the ARIMA et.al.,2021 and Mishra et.al.,2021c).
(1,2,1) model to be the best fit by utilizing the Run test Moving average (q): uses past forecast errors in
and Jarque and Bera test analysis, which was regression. The equation will be in the form:
accompanied by residual analysis.Mishra et al. (2021a) = + + (5)
forecasted milk production in South Asian countries and Where : parameters of model, : lag order of the
China and found that all methods are not equally
moving average, : error term.
effective in forecasting. Mishra et al. (2021b) also carried
Whereas (d) is decided by the ADF test, (p) and (q) are
out a study to find out the most suitable model for
determined by the autocorrelation function (p) and the
forecasting of sugarcane production in India.
partial autocorrelation function R(p), which are supplied
by Mishra et al., 2021b):
MATERIALS AND METHODS ,
( )= ( )
( ( − 1) ( − 2) … . (0)) = ( ) (7)

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Figure A: Schema of Tea production in India

RESULTS AND DISCUSSION metric tons on average. Example Kurtosis was (-0.42),
which indicates a mesokurtic distribution of the data. The
The dataset contains annual data from 1918 to presence of a positive skewness (0.80) value suggests that
2020 about the area, production, and yield rate of tea in India's tea production could expand in the future. From
India. We used training data from 1918 to 2015 and (434) kilograms per hectare to (2341) kilograms per
testing data from 2016 to 2020 for the last five years of hectare, the tea yield in India has risen throughout this
the dataset. time span. India's average yield of (1240.5) Kg. / Hectare
From 1918 to 2020, India's tea acreage expanded of tea. Example: The (-1.11) kurtosis number indicates
from (237.57) thousand to (579.35) thousand hectares, that there are some minor anomalies in the data. The
according to our research. There were (390.21) thousand distribution is nearly symmetric after a positive skewness
hectares of tea plantations in India on average. Small (0.23) of between -0.5 and 0.5.
outliers were evident in the data, as seen by an Table 2 lists the top selected ARIMA models,
exaggerated value of Kurtosis (-0.52). Skewness (0.90) which were chosen based on the following criteria:
indicates that there is a prospect of growth in India's tea Akaike, Root mean squared error, Mean absolute error,
region. There has been a significant increase in the Mean absolute percentage error, Maximum number of
amount of tea produced in India throughout this time significant coefficients.
period. The country's annual tea production was (528.19)

Table 1: Summary Statistics, using the observations 1918 – 2020.

Maximum Minimum Median Mean Variable

579.35 237.57 353.36 390.21 Area
1377 124.41 402.49 528.19 Production
2341 434 1146 1240.5 Yield
Ex. kurtosis Skewness C.V. Std. Dev. Variable
-0.52 0.90 0.24 95.78 Area
-0.42193 0.80636 0.65184 344.30 Production
-1.1196 0.23555 0.43024 533.72 Yield

Table 2: ARIMA Model fitted for Area, Production and Yield of tea in India for training data set (1918 to 2015).

MODEL Akaike Information Bayesian Information MAE RMSE MAPE

Criterion (AIC) Criterion (BIC)
Area ARIMA (0,1,1) 833.5 841.41 6.72 13.97 1.87
Production ARIMA (4,1,4) 960 986.32 17.15 23.13 4.25

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Yield ARIMA (0,1,1) 1153.9 1161.79 47.83 67.2 4.84

Table 3: State Space Models for Area, Production and Yield of tea in India for training data set (1918 to 2015).

Structural time series models for Area, Production and Yield of tea in India

Information

Information
Component

Bayesian
Criterion

Criterion
Std. Err

within-
Akaike

sample

MAPE
Value

(AIC)

(BIC)

MAE
RMS
t-stat

Prob
Level 569.5218 8.832 64.4873 0 2.9889 0.861
Area Slope 4.5018 1.996 2.2549 0.0264
AR1 0.0807 5.393 0.015 0.9881 8.1891 8.3738 6.7227
Level 1219.87 36.097 33.7942 0 2.1367 0.5759
Production Slope 23.97 3.886 6.1676 1.83E-08
AR3 -11.28 35.566 0.3172- 0.7518 9.1392 9.3766 2.8436
Level 2086.02 94.674 22.0337 0 14.7584 1.5794
Yield Slope 15.8 3.983 3.9668 1.41E-04
AR1 45.47 92.267 0.4928 0.6233 11.2348 11.393 20.9348

Table 3 provides us with an estimate of the parameters Table 5: Forecasting from 2021 to 2027 for Area,
for the State Space Models (SSMs). As a result of these Production and Yield of tea in India using
factors, the training data set ("1918 to 2015") has the best best models.
model based on the lowest possible AIC /BIC/ RMSE
/MAE/ MAPE values. When it comes to predicting tea Year Area Production Yield
production, the state space model beats ARIMA. In terms 2021 584 1344 2352
of prediction accuracy, the state space model has far 2022 587 1358 2365
higher accuracy than the ARIMA model, because all the 2023 592 1375 2379
accuracy metrics (AIC, BIC, RMSE, MAE and MAPE) 2024 595 1424 2392
are lower than the ARIMA model's. It is not necessary to 2025 599 1422 2406
require stationarity in these models for the state space 2026 603 1462 2420
model to reflect the complicated non-linear character of 2027 607 1486 2449
data series with a variety of distinct specifications,
structural breaks, shifts, time-varying factors, and As shown in Table 5, the tea area in India is
missing data. Dynamic timeseries can also be modeled predicted to grow by 2027 to reach 607 thousand
using the state space paradigm. The ARIMA model must Hectares (about). During the decade 2021-2027, the
be stationary, while models that incorporate unobserved economy will increase at a rate of 3.93 percent. The
components may need to be employed to eliminate trend output of tea in India is predicted to reach 1486 thousand
and seasonal effects from the ARIMA model. RMSE, tonnes in 2027, representing a growth rate of 10.56
MAE, and MAPE values in Table 4 show us the best percent between 2021 and 2027. During the period 2021-
State Space Models based on the testing data set ("2016 2027, the tea yield in India is predicted to reach 2449 Kg.
to 2020"). Hectare, representing a growth rate of 4.12 percent over
the previous five-year period.
Table 4: RMSE, MAE and MAPE for testing data set
(2016 to 2020).

RMSE MAE MAPE

Area 5.33 5.12 0.8863
Production 52.94 38.34 2.9435
Yield 50.14 38.42 1.6925

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Niranjan et al., J. Anim. Plant Sci., 32 (6) 2022

Figure 1: Actual and forecast values for Area, Production and Yield of tea in India with (Level -Total Signal-
Slope -Autoregressive- Trend-Residuals) during the period 1937-2027 using State Space Models.
Forecasting: Following the development of the top tea production in the northern areas of India needs to be
models, forecasting for the area, production, and yield of improved. Thus, India can continue to expand the area
tea in India is carried out. With respect to all time series, where tea can be grown as long as the region permits, but
the residuals of the chosen models were determined to be ultimately, she will have to rely on a strategy to boost
stationary and white noise. Using the best-fitted models, yield. In order to take use of these possibilities, the
the anticipated values for the years "2021" to "2027" are administration of the Bangladesh tea plantations should
depicted in the figures. The figures displayed the look for suitable extra areas and put them under tea
anticipated values; all forecasted lines in the figures are production. Redouble efforts to improve the tea
within a few percentage points of the actual values, plantation's yields and quality by bringing in higher
demonstrating the usefulness of the models chosen. From yielding and better-quality vegetative clones and seeds
the forecast numbers, it can be seen that the tea growing from BTRI.
area, tea production, and tea yield are all expected to
Acknowledgments: The work was supported by Act 211
increase in the future.
Government of the Russian Federation, contract No.
Conclusion: During the last 102 years (from 1918 to 02.A03.21.0011. The work was supported by the
2020), tea production has increased significantly in both Ministry of Science and Higher Education of the Russian
land area and yield. Since 1918–1981, the rate of yield Federation (government order FENU-2020-0022).
rise was much larger than in the period 1982–2020,
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