BVGA 18510 Economic Impact Onshore Wind Report r3
BVGA 18510 Economic Impact Onshore Wind Report r3
Subtitle
September 2017
Document history
Revision Description Circulation classification Authored Checked Approved Date
BVG Associates
BVG Associates is a technical consultancy with expertise in wind and marine energy technologies. The team probably has the
best independent knowledge of the supply chain and market for wind turbines in the industry. BVG Associates has more than
150 combined years’ experience in the wind industry, many of these being “hands on” with wind turbine manufacturers, leading
RD&D, purchasing and production departments. BVG Associates has consistently delivered to customers in many areas of the
wind energy sector, including:
Market leaders and new entrants in wind turbine supply and wind farm development
Market leaders and new entrants in wind farm component design and supply
New and established players within the wind industry of all sizes, on most continents, and
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The views expressed in this report are those of BVG Associates. The content of this report does not necessarily reflect the
views of ScottishPower Renewables.
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Economic benefits from onshore wind farms
34.0%
Scottish 40.6% 67.0%
UK 51.5% 85.1%
UK,
66.0% Rest of TOTEX Local 16.5% 16.5%
Scotland,
34.9%
Scottish 51.4% 51.4%
Rest of
UK, 14.6%
UK 66.0% 66.0%
3
The UK content in SPR’s wind farms is higher than Across the eight onshore wind farms, the annual funds
previously reported for other projects and the main factor available for distribution by communities from 2015 total
1
appears to be relative proportions of CAPEX and OPEX. almost £2.5 million at 2016 prices. Over 25 years, this
gives total community benefit funding income of £59
Economic impact
million.
Economic impact is considered in terms of local value-
Source: BVG Associates
added (LVA), gross value-added (GVA) in the UK, full-time
2
equivalent (FTE) years employment and earnings. All data
presented is given in real prices at final investment
decision (FID), that is, not adjusted for future inflation. A Induced,
summary of economic impacts is shown in Table B. £235
million,
Table B Summary of direct. Indirect and induced 18.5%
Direct,
economic impact. £624
million,
Impact UK Local 48.9%
2
Value-added calculations exclude that generated from SPR’s
profits.
4
Economic benefits from onshore wind farms
Contents
1. Introduction ............................................................................................................................................................................. 7
2. Methodology ........................................................................................................................................................................... 8
4. Discussion ............................................................................................................................................................................ 15
4.1. Onshore wind UK content ............................................................................................................................................... 15
4.2. Offshore wind UK content ............................................................................................................................................... 16
4.3. Differences between ScottishPower Renewables wind farms ........................................................................................ 16
4.4. Conclusions .................................................................................................................................................................... 16
Appendix A : Economic impact assessment methodology ............................................................................................................ 17
List of figures
Figure 1 Location of ScottishPower Renewable wind farms considered in the study. .................................................................... 7
Figure 2 Content by geographic region aggregated across the eight wind farms. ........................................................................ 10
Figure 3 Local content range between wind farms. ...................................................................................................................... 10
Figure 4 UK content range between wind farms. .......................................................................................................................... 11
Figure 5 Aggregated UK content (split by local and rest of UK) in DEVEX and CAPEX. .............................................................. 11
Figure 17 Annual undiscounted local earnings by direct, indirect and induced to 2040. ............................................................... 23
Figure 18 Annual undiscounted UK earnings by expenditure type to 2040. ................................................................................. 24
Figure 19 Annual undiscounted UK earnings by direct, indirect and induced to 2040. ................................................................. 24
5
List of tables
Table 1 Onshore wind farm project data. ........................................................................................................................................ 7
Table 2 Supply chain descriptions. ................................................................................................................................................. 9
Table 3 Summary of content by geographic region aggregated across the eight wind farms. ...................................................... 10
Table 4 Aggregated local, Scottish and UK content within each expenditure category. ............................................................... 11
Table 5 Aggregated local, Scottish and UK content within each expenditure category. ............................................................... 12
Table 6 Economic impacts, 2013 to 2040. .................................................................................................................................... 13
Table 7 UK content in planned wind farms on the Isle of Lewis. ................................................................................................... 15
6
Economic benefits from onshore wind farms
1,2
7
3
4, 5
8
6
3 4
https://www.uhi.ac.uk/en/media/find-an-expert/steve-westbrook Anticipated fully commissioned in September 2017.
7
2. Methodology relevant suppliers, BVGA used its detailed supply chain
knowledge supplemented with information provided by
To assess the economic benefits from onshore wind farms SPR project managers to derive local and UK content
BVGA used a two-step methodology: figures.
1. A content analysis, and For contracts less than £10 million, BVGA estimated
content figures. BVGA allocated the value as accurately as
2. An analysis of the economic benefits of gross value- possible to the location where the value was generated.
added (GVA), local value-added (LVA) and full-time
equivalent (FTE) years employment, using the content Each contract value was assigned to one or more relevant
data. elements of the supply chain outlined in Table 2 on page 9.
2.1. UK, Scottish and local content We weighted data by the individual wind farm capacity to
derive overall UK content in DEVEX, CAPEX, OPEX and
The analysis uses the methodology BVGA has developed TOTEX.
for the Offshore Wind Programme Board (OWPB) to
calculate the content in UK offshore wind projects.
5 2.2. Economic impact
As defined for this report, 'UK content' is the value of all To model the impacts of the wind farms’ development,
supplies sourced from within England, Northern Ireland, construction and operation, we used an innovative
Scotland and Wales that accrues as earnings from methodology which is based on a detailed understanding of
employment and business profits. It is the sum of 'direct' the wind and transmission supply chains. The methodology
plus 'indirect' impacts. Similarly, 'Scottish content’ is the is explained in Appendices A and B and uses a structured
value captured in Scotland and ‘local content’ is value local content (defined as the direct and indirect value
captured in south west Scotland. Scottish content is the added) analysis from a modelling methodology originally
sum of local content and rest of Scotland content. UK developed by BVGA. The following is analysed:
content is the sum of Scottish content and rest of UK Direct and indirect gross value added (GVA) and local
content. 'Non-UK content' is the value captured elsewhere. value-added (LVA)
6
5
Methodology for measuring the UK content of UK offshore wind
farms, May 2015, BVG Associates for Department of Energy and
6
Climate Change, The Crown Estate and RenewableUK. Available Gross value-added is a national measure. The term local value-
online at https://bvgassociates.com/publications/. Last accessed added is used to measure the value captured in south west
September 2017 Scotland.
8
Economic benefits from onshore wind farms
The methodology allocates value to the place of work.
Some contractors hire workers resident in south west
Scotland so we treated local workers engaged to work on
the projects as directly employed but with a place of work
the same as the place of residence.
The figures only include the impacts from building and
operating the wind farms. They do not consider the impacts
of profits made by SPR or from central UK Government
revenue generated through taxes.
DEVEX Project development The processes up to the point of financial close or placing firm orders to proceed with
and management wind farm construction, and project management costs incurred by SPR.
CAPEX Turbine The activity by wind turbine manufacturers and their suppliers, covering nacelle
component manufacture and assembly and blade and tower manufacture. It includes
transport, installation and commissioning. It excludes the turbine service agreement.
Civil works The activity by civil contractors and their suppliers; covering roads and drainage,
crane pads, turbine foundation, meteorological mast foundations, cable trenches and
buildings for electrical switch gear, SCADA equipment and its installation, and a
maintenance and spare part facility.
Electrical works The activity by electrical contractors and their suppliers, covering cables, electrical
switch gear, protection and control system, maintenance facilities and grid
connection.
OPEX Transmission OMS Activity during the lifetime operation of the wind farm, covering grid connection and
transmission costs
Wind farm operations, Activity during the lifetime operation of the wind farm, including land rental costs,
maintenance and business rates, operations and maintenance costs relating to the wind farm,
service (OMS) community benefit funds and environmental costs
Decommissioning The costs associated with the removal of the wind farm components at the end of its
operating life
9
3. Results Source: BVG Associates
UK 66.0% 66.0%
50%
25%
0%
DEVEX CAPEX OPEX TOTEX
7
These figures do not come from the same wind farm.
10
Economic benefits from onshore wind farms
Variations in UK content are largely due to differences in Table 4 Aggregated local, Scottish and UK content
the UK content in the CAPEX and this is mainly because of within each expenditure category.
the workforces of the civils contractors. The highest levels
of UK content (shown in Figure 4) were 74% for TOTEX, Category Region % content % content
7
95% for DEVEX, 42% for CAPEX and 90% for OPEX. in DEVEX in
+ CAPEX category
100%
Source: BVG Associates
0%
DEVEX CAPEX OPEX TOTEX Scottish 1.0% 1.9%
Local, 2.3%
11
Operational expenditure Table 5 Aggregated local, Scottish and UK content
within each expenditure category.
Figure 6 shows UK content in OPEX to be 85.3%. Table 5
shows 66.8% of this is Scottish content (78% of the UK
Category Region % %
figure), including 25.0% local content. The largest
content content
contribution to UK content in OPEX is through wind farm
in OPEX in
OMS, which contributes 68% to UK content.
category
Source: BVG Associates
Local, 0.1% Transmission Local 0% 0%
Rest of UK, OMS
2.0% Rest of UK, Scottish 5.0% 22.7%
15.1%
UK 15.1% 68.1%
Decommissioning,
2.4%
Wind farm OMS Local 24.9% 19.0%
Transmission
OMS, 21.6%
Scottish 60.0% 79.0%
UK 2.1% 84.0%
Figure 6 Aggregated local and UK content in OPEX.
Total OPEX Local 25.0% 25.0%
UK 85.3% 85.3%
LVA
GVA, and
FTEs.
Earnings and community benefits are also discussed.
12
Economic benefits from onshore wind farms
Table 6 Economic impacts, 2013 to 2040.
Supply chain Type Local value- Gross value- Local FTE UK FTE Local UK earnings
element added added years years earnings (£million)
(£million) (£million) (£million)
13
Gross and local value-added
Total GVA created between 2013 and 2040 is estimated at
8
£1,276 million, of this £297 million is total LVA.
Earnings
The total UK earnings created over the lifetime of the
project is estimated to be £814 million, of this £194 million.
is local earnings created over the lifetime of the project.
Annual local earnings are on average £25,000/FTE year
between 2013 and 2040. Annual UK earnings are on
average £26,000/FTE year between 2013 and 2040.
Community benefit
Across the eight SPR wind farms in south west Scotland,
the annual funds available for distribution by communities
total almost £2.5 million at 2016 prices. Annual
contributions by SPR will be index linked. Over 25 years,
this gives total community benefit fund (CBF) income of
almost £59 million.
8
GVA does not include SPR profits
14
Economic benefits from onshore wind farms
11
Onshore Wind: Economic Impacts in 2014, April 2015, Biggar
Economics for RenewableUK. Available online at
http://www.renewableuk-cymru.com/wp-
content/uploads/2015/04/Benefits-of-onshore-wind-report.pdf. Last
9
Economic benefits from the development of wind farms in the accessed September 2016.
Western Isles, February 2017, BVG Associates for EDF Energy
12
Renewables. Available online at The local content was constrained by the availability of local
https://bvgassociates.com/publications/. Last accessed August labour. At peak periods of construction, more labour needed to be
2017. brought onto the island.
15
4.2. Offshore wind UK content For UK content figures the variation between wind farms
comes mainly from CAPEX and, in particular, the civils
RenewableUK published offshore wind UK content data in contract. Most of the civils contractors delivered the work
13
2017 for DEVEX, CAPEX and OPEX (see Figure 7). It from Scottish offices using a UK labour force. Local and
showed an average UK content in TOTEX of 48%. UK community impacts
content in CAPEX was 29%. This is lower than observed
Major components of OPEX are land rent, voluntary
for onshore wind because of the strong non-UK supply
community benefit payments and business rates. We have
chain for offshore foundations and the use of non-UK
assumed significant of local content in the expenditure of
vessels and contractors for installation. UK content in
these payments. They therefore dominate the local content
OPEX is also lower because of the use of non-UK vessels
figures. Cumulative local employment impacts will be
and contractors.
substantial over the lifetime of the projects.
100%
4.4. Conclusions
75% The results from this analysis show that the local and UK
% UK content
Figure 7 UK content in offshore wind farms. The bars 3. The availability of UK-sourced towers.
show the range of results from different wind farms. For SPR’s wind farms, the first of these was largely
The Offshore Wind Developers Forum (the predecessor to favourable in increasing UK content by virtue of OPEX
the Offshore Wind Industry Council) declared in 2012 a values being relatively higher than in other studies, either
‘vision’ that the UK content in offshore wind farms would be because OPEX was high or because civils or turbine
50%. Although this is not a formal target, some wind farm contract prices are lower. For the second, SPR, contracted
owners see this as the benchmark against which their wind a civils company who typically use a proportion of labour
farms will be judged. brought over from the Republic of Ireland, which leads to a
lower proportion of UK content.
4.3. Differences between The only option for UK-sourced towers is CS Wind UK,
ScottishPower Renewables wind based in Campbeltown. It did not supply towers for any of
SPR’s wind farms. It was assumed to be the supplier for
farms the Western Isles wind farms analysis, because EDF
Energy Renewables signed a framework agreement
Figure 3 and Figure 4 in Section 3.1 show the range in 14
covering all its UK onshore wind farms.
local and UK content respectively for DEVEX, CAPEX,
OPEX and TOTEX. For local content, the variation is
primarily due to the presence of suppliers in the local area.
In these cases, the local presence is largely coincidental
and their designation as local companies is based on the
presence of the Blacklaw wind farm extensions. If the
Blacklaw wind farm extensions were excluded, the content
associated with these suppliers would have been classified
as a combination of Scottish and UK content.
13
Offshore Wind Industry Investment in the UK: 2017 Report on
Offshore Wind UK Content, September 2017, RenewableUK.
Available online at
www.renewableuk.com/resource/resmgr/publications/Offshore_Wi
14
nd_Investment_V4.pdf. Last accessed September 2017. http://www.cswinduk.com/newsfeed/2
16
Economic benefits from onshore wind farms
17
Appendix B: Comparison with conventional economic impact
methodologies
Conventional method BVG Associates method
Review of Review of
contracts contracts
UK spend at
Map onto tier 2 level
SIC codes
UK spend at
lower tiers
Statistical
multipliers
Indirect GVA Split direct
and FTEs and indirect
Wage bill W
Salaries Salaries
In a conventional analysis, multipliers are used that are based The multipliers used in conventional analysis in effect ignore
on statistics of expenditure flows in different sectors. Once the supply chain in detail, assuming that sector statistics are
the analysis has established what contracts have been valid. The BVGA method is based on the offshore wind UK
awarded to companies in the UK, the contractors are content methodology that seeks to understand the supply chain
associated with one of more sectors used in the Standard in the lower tiers and produces a figure that is equivalent to
Industry Classification. Input-output tables created, for direct and indirect GVA. Calculating a UK content figure, and
example, by the Office of National Statistics are used to having an understanding of profit margins, costs of
develop multipliers. These multipliers are used to calculate employment and salaries enables direct and indirect FTEs to
how demand in each of the SIC sectors leads to direct, be calculated. Induced impacts are calculated using
indirect and induced impacts. conventional multipliers. The same methodology is followed for
local content.
18
Economic benefits from onshore wind farms
10
0
'13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23 '24 '25 '26 '27 '28 '29 '30 '31 '32 '33 '34 '35 '36 '37 '38 '39 '40
Development Turbine Civil works Electrical works Transmission OMS Wind farm OMS Decommissioning
15
Source: BVG Associates
Local value-added (£million)
10
0
'13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23 '24 '25 '26 '27 '28 '29 '30 '31 '32 '33 '34 '35 '36 '37 '38 '39 '40
Figure 9 Annual undiscounted local value-added by direct, indirect and induced to 2040.
19
250
Source: BVG Associates
Grossl value-added (£million)
200
150
100
50
0
'13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23 '24 '25 '26 '27 '28 '29 '30 '31 '32 '33 '34 '35 '36 '37 '38 '39 '40
Development Turbine Civil works Electrical works Transmission OMS Wind farm OMS Decommissioning
250
Source: BVG Associates
Grossl value-added (£million)
200
150
100
50
0
'13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23 '24 '25 '26 '27 '28 '29 '30 '31 '32 '33 '34 '35 '36 '37 '38 '39 '40
Figure 11 Annual undiscounted gross value-added by direct, indirect and induced to 2040.
20
Economic benefits from onshore wind farms
400
Source: BVG Associates
300
Full time equivalent years
200
100
0
'13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23 '24 '25 '26 '27 '28 '29 '30 '31 '32 '33 '34 '35 '36 '37 '38 '39 '40
Development Turbine Civil works Electrical works Transmission OMS Wind farm OMS Decommissioning
400
Source: BVG Associates
Full time equivalent years
300
200
100
0
'13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23 '24 '25 '26 '27 '28 '29 '30 '31 '32 '33 '34 '35 '36 '37 '38 '39 '40
Figure 13 Annual undiscounted local FTEs by direct, indirect and induced to 2040.
21
6,000
Source: BVG Associates
5,000
Full time equivalent years
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
'13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23 '24 '25 '26 '27 '28 '29 '30 '31 '32 '33 '34 '35 '36 '37 '38 '39 '40
Development Turbine Civil works Electrical works Transmission OMS Wind farm OMS Decommissioning
6,000
Source: BVG Associates
5,000
Full time equivalent years
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
'13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23 '24 '25 '26 '27 '28 '29 '30 '31 '32 '33 '34 '35 '36 '37
22
Economic benefits from onshore wind farms
15
Source: BVG Associates
Earnings (£million)
10
0
'13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23 '24 '25 '26 '27 '28 '29 '30 '31 '32 '33 '34 '35 '36 '37 '38 '39 '40
Development Turbine Civil works Electrical works Transmission OMS Wind farm OMS Decommissioning
15
Source: BVG Associates
Earnings (£million)
10
0
'13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23 '24 '25 '26 '27 '28 '29 '30 '31 '32 '33 '34 '35 '36 '37 '38 '39 '40
Figure 17 Annual undiscounted local earnings by direct, indirect and induced to 2040.
23
140
Source: BVG Associates
120
Earnings (£million)
100
80
60
40
20
0
'13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23 '24 '25 '26 '27 '28 '29 '30 '31 '32 '33 '34 '35 '36 '37 '38 '39 '40
Development Turbine Civil works Electrical works Transmission OMS Wind farm OMS Decommissioning
140
Source: BVG Associates
120
100
Earnings (£million)
80
60
40
20
0
'13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23 '24 '25 '26 '27 '28 '29 '30 '31 '32 '33 '34 '35 '36 '37 '38 '39 '40
24
Economic benefits from onshore wind farms
25
indirect and induced impacts this might, on average, Energy efficiency measures
support 15 FTEs in South West Scotland per £1 million of
Related employment impacts, where applicable, are
spend. This would give a total impact over 25 years of 885
covered under construction and business development
FTE years.
impacts above.
Business development projects
Miscellaneous social and environmental projects and
Exclusive of construction, business development spend of activities
£100,000 might support four FTEs inclusive of indirect and
Excluding impacts already covered above, it is assumed
induced impacts, with FTEs lasting an average of 10 years.
that expenditure of £150,000 might on average support two
This allows for some support funding from external
FTE years in the years in which the expenditures are
agencies such as Scottish Enterprise. This would give a
made. This would give a total over 25 years of around 120
total impact over 25 years of 2,360 FTE years.
FTE years.
Community buildings and facilities
Table 9 summarises the FTE year impacts from CBFs. At
It is assumed that buildings and improved facilities costing an average of £23,000 gross earnings per FTE year, this
the community £500,000 (plus levered funding) might results in local area earnings totalling around £170 million
support, over twenty years from when the expenditures are at 2016 prices.
made, an average of three FTEs per year, inclusive of
indirect and induced impacts – including management, Table 9 Summary of FTE year impacts from community
administration, maintenance, and other supplies and benefit funds.
services for activities (excluding voluntary inputs). These
impacts take into account support funding that might be Breakdown FTE years
provided under category seven below. This would give a
total over 25 years of 3,540 FTE years. Construction 885
26