J P M O R G A N Global Commodities Research

04 October 2023

Oil Markets Weekly

Demand destruction has begun (again)

• After reaching our target of $90 in September, our end-year target Global Commodities Research
remains $86/bbl (Into thin air, 20 September 2023). We maintain our view that Natasha Kaneva AC
August saw the largest deficit (-2.8 mbd) of the year and that inventory draws (1-212) 834-3175
will transition to a slight build (+0.1 mbd) during the final four months of the [email protected]
year. Accordingly, crude backwardation should start to narrow and physical JPMorgan Chase Bank NA

crude differentials for alternative Atlantic Basin grades should start to ease. Prateek Kedia
(1-646) 326 1124
• Global oil stock draws have ended. Preliminary satellite stock observations [email protected]
from Platts suggest that during the first three weeks of September (September J.P. Morgan Securities LLC
1-22), global commercial crude inventories declined 8 mn bbls, while the Cole Wolf
world’s oil product stocks surged 38 mn bbls, for a net build in total commercial (1-212) 622-5762
oil liquids of 30 mn bbls (1.36 mbd). Within the same time frame, prompt [email protected]
J.P. Morgan Securities LLC
official inventory data from Europe, Japan, Singapore and the US show a
similar pattern, with total commercial crude stocks drawing 2 mn bbls and oil
products building 6 mn bbls.
• Our balances assume healthy but slower demand growth in 4Q23. On a
YoY basis, demand should be supported by flattering base effect in the US and
China, gaining 1.8 mbd vs last year’s levels. Sequentially, however, we expect
that normal seasonal patterns in demand will be maintained this year and see
global oil demand declining 600 kbd in 4Q23. Moreover, demand restraint
from rising oil prices is once again becoming visible in the US, Europe, and
some EM countries (Demand destruction has begun, 24 March 2022). China
and India drove global oil demand growth this year, but China opted to draw
on domestic crude inventories in August and September after oil prices surged,
while the deep discount enjoyed by India on its crude purchases in 1H23 has
turned into a premium since July.
• Global oil liquids production is expected to grow 700 kbd sequentially in
4Q23, with US natural gas liquids alone contributing one-third of the gain.
Figure 1: Global oil inventories built in September Figure 2: US gasoline demand has tracked below average
kbd MoM seasonality since July
kbd
Crude Products 11000
3,000 5-year range 5 year avg 2023
2,000 10000
1,000
9000
0
8000
-1,000
-2,000 7000

-3,000 6000
Apr-23

Jul-23

Sep-23
Jan-23

Feb-23

Mar-23

May-23

Jun-23

Aug-23

5000
Wk Wk Wk Wk Wk Wk Wk Wk Wk Wk Wk Wk Wk Wk Wk Wk Wk Wk
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52

Source: Platts, J.P. Morgan Commodities Research Source: EIA

See page 26 for analyst certification and important disclosures.

www.jpmorganmarkets.com
Natasha Kaneva AC Global Commodities Research
(1-212) 834-3175 04 October 2023 JPMORGAN
[email protected]

Primary impact of higher oil prices

Oil prices may have slipped in recent days, but Brent crude is up more than 30% in three months, jumping
from $72/bbl in late June to $97/bbl in the last week of September. In the US, the national average retail gasoline
price reached $3.88/gallon in September, up more than 20% since the start of the year and 11 cents above levels last
year and a seasonal record. Compounding higher gasoline prices is a simultaneous spike in diesel costs. National
diesel prices hit $4.58/gallon in September, up 19% from early July. Jet fuel has risen the most, with its price on the
Gulf Coast soaring more than 45% since early July.

In real terms, both US gasoline and diesel prices remain far below their June 2008 peaks of $5.68 and $6.56 a gallon,
respectively. Fuel prices were similarly consistently at or above today’s levels between 1979 and 1981 and 2011 and
2014 (Figures 3 and 4). Even if oil product prices have historically been much higher on an inflation-adjusted basis,
consumers are unlikely to reference what they paid for fuel 10 or 15 years ago as a benchmark for their current
spending decisions. Work and commuting choices, vacation plans and vehicle purchases are made with more recent
prices in mind. In other words, consumer behavior tends to be rather myopic.

Figure 3: US gasoline prices in real and nominal terms Figure 4: US diesel prices in real and nominal terms
US dollars per gallon US dollars per gallon
6.0 7.0
5.0 6.0
5.0
4.0
4.0
3.0
3.0
2.0 2.0
1.0 1.0
0.0
0.0
Jul-92

Nov-00
Dec-02

Jul-17
Jan-80
Feb-82
Mar-84

May-88
Jun-90

Jan-05

Apr-11
May-13
Jun-15
Apr-86

Oct-98

Feb-07
Mar-09
Aug-94
Sep-96

Aug-19
Sep-21
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022

Nominal gasoline prices Real gasoline prices Nominal diesel prices Real diesel prices

Source: EIA. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Note: Real (inflation-adjusted) prices are calculated with Source: EIA, Bureau of Labor Statistics. Note: Real (Inflation-adjusted) prices are calculated with
August 2023 Consumer Price Index data August 2023 Consumer Price Index data

At almost $4 a gallon for gasoline, an American driving on average 13,489 miles in a vehicle with an average 2021
fuel economy rating of about 22 miles per gallon would spend $2,350 a year, or about $200 each month. Costs
multiply for lower-income families, especially those in rural areas, since they have less-fuel efficient vehicles and
drive longer distances for work. For a US worker in the first quartile of income, who earns about $740 a week, 6% of
income would be spent today filling the tank, assuming a car with an average efficiency rating. Although this is below
the 9% spent last year, it compares to 4% in 2021. Now consider a vehicle owner who lives in California, where the
average price of a gallon of gasoline reached $6.08 on September 29. The eye-popping prices in the nation’s most
populous state—California accounts for 10% of US gasoline demand—have surged almost 30% since June, when
retail gasoline prices bottomed at $4.67/gallon.

The 30% price surge in diesel is mostly felt by construction companies, transportation businesses and farmers,
increasing the cost of freight and food production (70% of American goods are transported via semi-trucks). For
example, an American truck driver will be spending $138 per month more in 2H23 vs 1H23 to drive the same number
of miles, assuming diesel prices stay sticky. The fuel bill for an average American farmer who plants and harvests
about 450 acres will be $12,350 in 2H23 compared to $11,530 spent in 1H23. Adding to the economic toll of the US
consumer is the resumption of student loan payments and wind-down of pandemic-era savings.

All told, fuel prices may be closer to consumers’ pain threshold than inflation-adjusted prices might suggest.
There are already signs that consumers have responded by cutting back on fuel consumption. Largely tracking

2
Natasha Kaneva AC Global Commodities Research
(1-212) 834-3175 04 October 2023 JPMORGAN
[email protected]

gasoline prices, US gasoline demand came in above our forecast in the first half of the year, expanding 110 kbd above
last year’s levels. The spike in gasoline prices in 3Q23 in turn depressed gasoline demand, resulting in a counter-
seasonal plunge of 223 kbd (Figures 5 & 6). In PADD 5, of which California is the biggest consumer, we estimate
gasoline demand dropped 100 kbd between June and September, to a seven month low of 1.46 mbd. American
motorists alone consume 30% of all the world’s gasoline and 9% of global oil, so the trajectory of US gasoline
demand is one of the most important consumption metrics in determining global oil prices.

Figure 5: US average retail gasoline price Figure 6: US gasoline demand has tracked below average seasonality
$/gal since July
kbd
$5.5 11000
5-year range 5 year avg 2023
$5.0 10000
$4.5
9000
$4.0
8000
$3.5

$3.0 7000
$2.5 6000
Apr-22

Jul-22

Jul-23
Feb-22
Mar-22

Oct-22

Oct-23
Nov-22

Jan-23

Mar-23
Jan-22

May-22
Jun-22

Aug-22

Apr-23

Jun-23
Dec-22

Feb-23

Sep-23
Sep-22

May-23

Aug-23

5000
Wk Wk Wk Wk Wk Wk Wk Wk Wk Wk Wk Wk Wk Wk Wk Wk Wk Wk
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52

Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. Source: EIA

Similarly, high diesel prices seem to have started to weigh on diesel demand in the US, contrary to seasonal trends. In
PADD 5 on the West Coast, a 13% increase in diesel prices has led to a 7% drop in distillates demand in the region
with current demand below 400 kbd, a six month low. Meanwhile, signs abound that the post-pandemic travel boom
appears to be fading, at least in the US. After a summer season that saw record numbers of travelers, both budget and
full service US airlines are now reporting sales at the lower end of expectations and below historical seasonality. We
estimate US jet fuel consumption declined counter seasonally almost 100 kbd from its peak in June of 1.8 mbd.

Secondary impact of higher oil prices

The impact of the rising oil prices on consumption depends heavily on whether the source of rising oil prices is
a demand shock or a supply shock. For example, robust economic expansion in the 2000s boosted by China’s
accession into World Trade Organization in December 2001 required a lot of oil to grow, leading in turn to strong
growth in GDP and rising oil prices. In contrast, a negative shock to supply of oil that boosts prices and dampens
consumer purchasing power will weigh on economic growth and depress oil demand. The Arab oil embargo of 1973,
the Iranian revolution in 1978-79, and the Gulf War in 1990 are all examples of supply-driven surge in oil prices
(Figure 7). The speed of the price move also matters. Sharp and rapid rise in the oil price will have a larger effect on
household sentiment and spending as consumers have less time to adjust.

3
Natasha Kaneva AC Global Commodities Research
(1-212) 834-3175 04 October 2023 JPMORGAN
[email protected]

Figure 7: Brent price

$/bbl; Blue bars: demand-driven price increase; orange bars: supply-driven price increase

140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
4Q1971
1Q1974
2Q1976
3Q1978
4Q1980
1Q1983
2Q1985
3Q1987
4Q1989
1Q1992
2Q1994
3Q1996
4Q1998
1Q2001
2Q2003
3Q2005
4Q2007
1Q2010
2Q2012
3Q2014
4Q2016
1Q2019
2Q2021
3Q2023
Source: EIA, Bloomberg Finance L.P., J.P. Morgan Commodities Research

In short, economies can withstand oil spikes, as long as they are temporary, demand-driven, and not combined
with other spillover effects such as monetary tightening, credit quality, and financial instability. We assess that
roughly one-fourth of the 30% jump in oil prices since mid-year owes to the better than expected demand growth with
a negative supply—owing to the sharp cutbacks from the OPEC+alliance—representing the dominant source of price
pressure (Oil supply shock to test global resilience, Lupton et al, 19 September 2023) (Figure 8).

4
Natasha Kaneva AC Global Commodities Research
(1-212) 834-3175 04 October 2023 JPMORGAN
[email protected]

Figure 8: Global commodities prices

Index 100 as of July 3, 2023

Brent Copper Aluminum Nickel

Cotton Corn Wheat Henry Hub
130
120
110
100
90
80
7-Aug

4-Sep

2-Oct
10-Jul

17-Jul

24-Jul

31-Jul

14-Aug

21-Aug

28-Aug

11-Sep

18-Sep

25-Sep
3-Jul

Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P.

Adding to the pressure, the wider index of EM currencies depreciated 9% against the US dollar since May. This
has effectively increased the price of oil measured in domestic currencies, resulting in higher prices for petroleum
products in the domestic markets as costs are passed on to ultimate consumers (Exhibit 9).To that extent, total crude
oil imports by Pakistan, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka declined 15% YoY in 3Q23, with demand likely dropping 20% or
93 kbd over the same period. The result is that these economies, despite having a combined refining capacity of 530
kbd, only import crude accounting for one-third of that, with the majority of the refining capacity sitting idle.

5
Natasha Kaneva AC Global Commodities Research
(1-212) 834-3175 04 October 2023 JPMORGAN
[email protected]

Figure 9: Oil price in local currencies

Index = 100

Thailand Vietnam Bangladesh

300 India China Philippines

250

200

150

100
Sep-21

Sep-22
Jul-21

Jul-22

Jul-23
Sep-23
Jan-21

Nov-21
Jan-22

May-22

Nov-22
Jan-23
May-21

May-23
Mar-21

Mar-22

Mar-23
Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P., J.P. Morgan Commodities Research

Meanwhile, Nigeria gasoline demand collapsed after the administration scrapped a costly subsidy on fuel at the
end of May. Gasoline imports in 1Q23 surged to an all-time high of 430 kbd, up 16% YoY, but have since plunged
204 kbd or 48% in 3Q23 as domestic prices tripled. While the government has announced there will not be further
increases in gasoline prices, even at current prices imports are unlikely to improve much. Nigeria’s gasoline imports
and consumption will likely contract 120 kbd QoQ in 3Q23 with year-end demand likely to face similar headwinds.
Also in the region, oil demand in neighboring Cameroon, Benin and Togo that relied on petrol from Nigeria has
collapsed.

The rebound of China’s oil demand from very depressed levels in 2022 to a record in 2023 was a big support to both
global oil consumption and oil prices so far this year. The surge came as refiners took advantage of healthy domestic
refining margins, which have been bolstered by imports of cheap feedstock. With Brent oil price averaging $80 in the
first seven months of the year, China imported record volumes of crude oil, with some of that supply stockpiled rather
than turned into gasoline and diesel. By our estimate, China added about 400 kbd to inventories in the first six months
of the year, or a total of about 73 million barrels. History suggests that China’s refiners tend to pare imports if they
believe that prices have risen too fast or are too high. To that extent, China has opted to draw 87 million barrels of
domestic crude inventories in August and September after oil prices surged. In fact, China accounted for over 80% of
the global oil draws in August. Chinese crude stocks peaked at 1.1 billion barrels at the end of July and currently
stand at around 1 billion barrels, still 150 million barrels above their pre-COVID levels, giving buyers flexibility to
further cut back purchases if needed (Figures 10 & 11).

6
Natasha Kaneva AC Global Commodities Research
(1-212) 834-3175 04 October 2023 JPMORGAN
[email protected]

Figure 10: China crude inventories 2023 Figure 11: China crude inventories, historical
mb mb
1150 1200

1100 1100

1000
1050
900
1000
800
950
700

1-Oct
22-Jan

5-Mar

7-May

18-Jun

30-Jul
28-May
12-Feb

20-Aug

10-Sep
26-Mar

16-Apr
1-Jan

9-Jul

Jul-19

May-20

Mar-21
Jan-17
Jun-17
Nov-17
Apr-18
Sep-18
Feb-19

Dec-19

Oct-20

Aug-21
Jan-22
Jun-22
Nov-22
Apr-23
Sep-23
Source: Kpler Source: Kpler

Similarly, the deep discount enjoyed by India on its crude purchases in the first half of 2023 has turned into a
premium since July (Figure 12). Additionally, India has to pay shipping—which may range anywhere between $11
and $19 per barrel to transport crude from the Russian ports to India—and insurance costs, potentially impacting
India’s current account deficit and deficit, if sustained for an extended period. India, world’s third largest importer of
oil, depends on imports for about 85% of its crude needs.

Figure 12: Premium/discount to Brent for Indian crude oil basket, FOB
US$/bbl

(2)

(4)

(6)

(8)
Jul-17

Jul-22
Apr-16

Jan-20
Jun-20

Apr-21
Mar-19

Nov-20

Dec-22
Oct-18

Feb-22
Dec-17
Sep-16
Feb-17

Aug-19

Sep-21
May-18

May-23

Source: PPAC, Bloomberg Finance L.P., J.P. Morgan Commodities Research

7
Natasha Kaneva AC (1-212) 834-3175 Cole Wolf (1-212) 622-5762 Global Commodities Research
[email protected] [email protected]
JPMORGAN
Oil Markets Weekly
JPMorgan Chase Bank NA 04 October 2023
Prateek Kedia (1-646) 326 1124
[email protected]

Table 1: Global oil supply and demand balance, 2022E

mbd 2022E 2022E 2022E
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q
Total Oil Demand 97.9 100.7 98.9 96.9 97.8 100.0 99.6 100.8 99.9 99.3 100.4 100.9 99.1 98.2 100.1 100.2 99.4

Total Oil Supply 97.5 98.0 99.0 97.8 98.1 98.5 99.9 100.0 100.6 101.3 100.7 99.3 98.2 98.2 100.2 100.4 99.2
OPEC Crude 28.2 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.6 28.8 29.1 29.6 29.7 29.7 28.9 29.0 28.5 28.7 29.4 29.2 29.0
OPEC Other Liquids 5.4 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3
Non-OPEC Crude + Other 61.3 61.5 62.4 61.1 61.6 61.8 62.8 62.6 63.0 63.7 63.9 62.5 61.8 61.5 62.8 63.4 62.4
Processing Gain 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6

Stock Change To Balance -0.4 -2.8 +0.1 +0.9 +0.4 -1.5 +0.3 -0.7 +0.7 +1.9 +0.3 -1.5 -1.0 -0.1 +0.1 +0.2 -0.2
Stock Change To Balance, mb -13 -78 +2 +26 +11 -44 +9 -23 +22 +60 +9 -47 -88 -6 +8 +22 -65
Global SPR release, mbd +0.2 +0.3 +0.4 +1.0 +1.2 +1.4 +1.2 +1.2 +1.4 +1.0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.3 +1.2 +1.3 +0.6 +0.9
Stock Change (Adjusted for SPR, Iran and Russia), mbd +0.1 -2.8 +1.0 +1.7 +1.9 -0.3 +1.7 +0.4 +2.3 +3.1 +0.7 -0.6 -0.5 +1.1 +1.5 +1.1 +0.8

Source: IEA, EIA, Wood Mackenzie, Rystad, Genscape, FlightAware, MariTrace, Google, TomTom, US Department of Transportation, J.P. Morgan Commodities Research

Table 2: Global oil supply and demand balance, 2023F

mbd 2023F 2023F 2023F
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q
Total Oil Demand 97.6 101.1 100.4 99.6 101.3 102.1 102.5 103.9 101.4 102.1 101.9 102.0 99.7 101.0 102.6 102.0 101.3

Total Oil Supply 100.7 100.8 101.0 100.6 100.3 101.4 101.1 101.1 101.9 102.1 102.2 101.9 100.8 100.7 101.4 102.1 101.3
OPEC Crude 29.1 29.0 29.0 28.6 28.3 28.4 27.5 27.7 27.9 28.0 28.0 28.1 29.0 28.4 27.7 28.0 28.3
OPEC Other Liquids 5.5 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.3 5.3 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.3 5.4
Non-OPEC Crude + Other 63.5 63.8 64.0 63.9 64.2 64.8 65.5 65.2 65.9 66.1 66.2 65.7 63.8 64.3 65.5 66.0 64.9
Processing Gain 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.6 2.5 2.7 2.7 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.7

Stock Change To Balance +3.0 -0.3 +0.6 +1.0 -1.0 -0.8 -1.4 -2.7 +0.4 +0.0 +0.3 -0.1 +1.1 -0.3 -1.2 +0.1 -0.1
Stock Change To Balance, mb +94 -9 +18 +29 -31 -23 -43 -84 +13 +1 +8 -4 +3 -25 -115 +6 -131
Global SPR release, mbd +0.0 +0.0 +0.0 +0.2 +0.3 +0.2 -0.0 -0.1 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 +0.0 +0.3 -0.0 -0.0 +0.1
Stock Change (Adjusted for SPR, Iran and Russia), mbd +2.9 -0.9 +1.4 +1.0 -0.6 -1.0 -1.4 -2.8 +0.4 -0.0 +0.3 -0.1 +1.2 -0.2 -1.3 +0.0 -0.1

Source: IEA, EIA, Wood Mackenzie, Rystad, Genscape, FlightAware, MariTrace, Google, TomTom, US Department of Transportation, J.P. Morgan Commodities Research

Table 3: Global oil supply and demand balance, 2024F

mbd 2024F 2024F 2024F
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q
Total Oil Demand 101.2 102.3 100.3 102.4 101.9 103.0 105.1 104.9 102.4 103.4 102.7 103.0 101.2 102.4 104.1 103.1 102.7

Total Oil Supply 102.7 102.5 102.5 102.8 102.9 103.4 103.9 103.8 103.3 103.7 103.8 103.4 102.6 103.0 103.6 103.7 103.2
OPEC Crude 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.7
OPEC Other Liquids 5.5 5.5 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.4 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.4 5.5 5.5 5.5
Non-OPEC Crude + Other 65.9 65.9 65.8 66.0 66.1 66.5 67.0 66.9 66.4 66.9 67.0 66.6 65.9 66.2 66.8 66.8 66.4
Processing Gain 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.7

Stock Change To Balance +1.5 +0.2 +2.2 +0.4 +0.9 +0.4 -1.2 -1.1 +0.9 +0.3 +1.1 +0.4 +1.3 +0.6 -0.5 +0.6 +0.5
Stock Change To Balance, mb +48 +6 +69 +12 +29 +11 -37 -34 +26 +10 +33 +13 +123 +52 -45 +56 +185
Global SPR release, mbd -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.0 -0.0 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 +0.0 +0.0 +0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 +0.0 -0.1
Stock Change (Adjusted for SPR, Iran and Russia), mbd +1.4 +0.1 +2.1 +0.4 +0.9 +0.2 -1.4 -1.3 +0.7 +0.3 +1.1 +0.4 +1.3 +0.5 -0.7 +0.6 +0.4

Source: IEA, EIA, Wood Mackenzie, Rystad, Genscape, FlightAware, MariTrace, Google, TomTom, US Department of Transportation, J.P. Morgan Commodities Research

8
Natasha Kaneva AC (1-212) 834-3175 Cole Wolf (1-212) 622-5762 Global Commodities Research
[email protected] [email protected]
JPMORGAN
JPMorgan Chase Bank NA 04 October 2023
Prateek Kedia (1-646) 326 1124
[email protected]

Table 4: J.P. Morgan crude oil price forecasts (US$/bbl)

Price and forecasts are quarterly and annual spot averages
2021 1Q22 2Q22 3Q22 4Q22 2022 1Q23 2Q23 3Q23 4Q23 2023 1Q24 2Q24 3Q24 4Q24 2024
Avg 71 98 114 102 90 101 82 77 80 85 81 83 83 81 85 83
Brent
EoP 75 115 104 104 88 88 79 72 86 86 86 83 79 86 85 85
Avg 68 95 111 99 82 97 78 73 76 81 76 79 79 77 81 79
WTI
EoP 75 112 101 101 80 84 78 67 82 81 81 78 75 82 81 81

WTI - Brent Spread Avg -2.7 -3.0 -3.0 -3.5 -8.0 -4.4 -4.2 -4.5 -4.0 -4.5 -4.8 -4.5 -4.5 -4.0 -4.5 -4.4

Realized Avg/ Brent 71 97 112 98 89 99 82 78 86 91 91 88 85 84 83 85

Forward Curve WTI 68 95 109 91 83 94 76 74 82 88 88 84 81 79 78 81

Realized EoP/ Brent 75 112 118 90 81 81 79 75 93 91 91 87 85 84 82 82

Forward Curve WTI 75 108 114 84 77 77 73 70 89 87 87 83 81 79 78 78

Source: ICE, NYMEX, Bloomberg Finance L.P., J.P. Morgan Commodities Research. Actuals till 2Q23. Forward curve for Brent from 3Q23 and WTI from 2Q23 onwards. Price forecasts last updated on
June 14, 2023

9
Natasha Kaneva AC (1-212) 834-3175 Cole Wolf (1-212) 622-5762 Global Commodities Research
[email protected] [email protected]
JPMORGAN
Oil Markets Weekly
JPMorgan Chase Bank NA 04 October 2023
Prateek Kedia (1-646) 326 1124
[email protected]

Table 5: Global crude oil and products balance, 2022E

mbd 2022E 2022E 2022E
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q
Crude and Condensate Production 80.2 80.9 81.4 80.1 79.9 80.1 81.1 81.6 82.2 82.8 82.4 82.1 80.8 80.0 81.7 82.4 81.0

Refinery Runs 80.5 80.7 79.6 78.1 79.2 80.8 80.3 80.9 80.3 78.7 80.8 80.9 80.3 79.3 80.5 80.1 79.8
Direct Crude Burn 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.5
Other Direct Crude Demand 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
Crude Oil Demand 81.3 81.6 80.4 78.9 80.0 81.7 81.2 81.9 81.3 79.7 81.6 81.7 81.0 80.2 81.4 81.0 80.7

Crude Balance Change -1.0 -0.7 1.0 1.2 -0.1 -1.6 -0.1 -0.2 1.0 3.1 0.9 0.4 -0.2 -0.2 0.2 1.5 0.3
Crude Balance Change, mb* -32 -18 32 36 -3 -48 -3 -7 29 97 26 12 -18 -16 19 135 120

Refinery Processing Gains 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6

Refined Products Supply 83.1 83.2 82.1 80.6 81.8 83.4 82.9 83.5 83.0 81.3 83.4 83.5 82.8 81.9 83.1 82.7 82.4

Global NGLs and Non-conventional Oils 17.3 17.1 17.6 17.7 18.3 18.5 18.8 18.4 18.4 18.4 18.3 17.3 17.3 18.2 18.5 18.0 18.0

Global Products & Liquids Supply 97.8 97.8 97.2 95.8 97.4 99.3 99.0 99.3 98.7 97.2 99.1 98.2 97.6 97.5 99.0 98.1 97.8

Global Oil Demand ex Direct Crude Use 97.2 99.9 98.2 96.1 96.9 99.1 98.6 99.8 99.0 98.4 99.6 100.1 98.4 97.4 99.1 99.4 98.3

Product Balance Change 0.6 -2.1 -0.9 -0.3 0.5 0.2 0.4 -0.5 -0.2 -1.2 -0.5 -1.9 -0.8 0.1 -0.1 -1.2 -0.5
Product Balance Change, mb* 19 -59 -29 -9 15 5 12 -16 -7 -37 -16 -59 -69 11 -10 -112 -180

Total Balance Change -0.4 -2.8 0.1 0.9 0.4 -1.4 0.3 -0.7 0.7 1.9 0.3 -1.5 -1.0 -0.1 0.1 0.2 -0.2
Total Balance Change, mb* -13 -77 3 27 11 -43 10 -23 22 60 10 -47 -87 -5 9 23 -61

Source: IEA, EIA, Wood Mackenzie, Rystad, Genscape, FlightAware, MariTrace, Google, TomTom, US Department of Transportation, J.P. Morgan Commodities Research

Table 6: Global crude oil and products balance, 2023F

mbd 2023F 2023F 2023F
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q
Crude and Condensate Production 83.0 83.2 83.0 82.1 81.6 82.2 81.8 81.8 82.6 82.8 83.1 83.2 83.0 82.0 82.1 83.0 82.3

Refinery Runs 81.2 80.9 81.0 80.3 80.1 80.6 82.5 84.0 82.1 80.4 82.5 84.3 81.1 80.3 82.9 82.4 81.4
Direct Crude Burn 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.5
Other Direct Crude Demand 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
Crude Oil Demand 82.0 81.8 81.8 81.2 81.0 81.5 83.4 85.0 83.2 81.4 83.3 85.1 81.9 81.2 83.9 83.3 82.3

Crude Balance Change 1.0 1.4 1.1 0.9 0.6 0.7 -1.6 -3.2 -0.6 1.4 -0.2 -1.9 1.2 0.7 -1.8 -0.3 -0.1
Crude Balance Change, mb* 30 39 36 27 19 21 -51 -99 -17 42 -7 -59 104 67 -167 -24 -20

Refinery Processing Gains 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.6 2.5 2.7 2.7 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.7

Refined Products Supply 83.9 83.5 83.5 82.9 82.6 83.3 85.2 86.8 84.8 83.0 85.2 87.0 83.6 83.0 85.6 85.1 84.1

Global NGLs and Non-conventional Oils 17.7 17.7 18.0 18.5 18.7 19.2 19.3 19.3 19.3 19.4 19.2 18.8 17.8 18.8 19.3 19.1 18.7

Global Products & Liquids Supply 98.9 98.6 99.0 98.8 98.9 99.8 101.8 103.3 101.4 99.7 101.7 103.0 98.9 99.1 102.2 101.5 100.2

Global Oil Demand ex Direct Crude Use 96.9 100.3 99.6 98.7 100.4 101.2 101.5 102.9 100.4 101.1 101.1 101.2 98.9 100.1 101.6 101.1 100.2

Product Balance Change 2.1 -1.7 -0.6 0.1 -1.6 -1.4 0.3 0.5 1.0 -1.3 0.5 1.8 0.0 -1.0 0.6 0.3 0.0
Product Balance Change, mb* 64 -47 -17 3 -49 -43 8 15 31 -41 16 56 0 -90 54 32 -4

Total Balance Change 3.0 -0.3 0.6 1.0 -1.0 -0.8 -1.4 -2.7 0.4 0.0 0.3 -0.1 1.2 -0.3 -1.2 0.1 -0.1
Total Balance Change, mb* 94 -9 18 29 -30 -23 -43 -84 13 1 9 -3 104 -23 -113 8 -25

Source: IEA, EIA, Wood Mackenzie, Rystad, Genscape, FlightAware, MariTrace, Google, TomTom, US Department of Transportation, J.P. Morgan Commodities Research

10
Natasha Kaneva AC (1-212) 834-3175 Cole Wolf (1-212) 622-5762 Global Commodities Research
[email protected] [email protected]
JPMORGAN
JPMorgan Chase Bank NA 04 October 2023
Prateek Kedia (1-646) 326 1124
[email protected]

Table 7: Global crude oil and products balance, 2024F

mbd 2024F 2024F 2024F
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q
Crude and Condensate Production 84.1 84.0 83.9 83.9 83.7 83.9 84.3 84.2 83.9 84.4 84.6 84.5 84.9 83.8 84.1 84.5 84.1

Refinery Runs 83.3 82.9 82.7 83.1 83.3 84.3 85.6 86.0 84.7 83.7 85.4 86.2 83.9 83.6 85.4 85.1 84.3
Direct Crude Burn 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
Other Direct Crude Demand 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
Crude Oil Demand 84.1 83.7 83.5 83.9 84.1 85.1 86.4 86.8 85.5 84.5 86.2 87.0 84.7 84.4 86.2 85.9 85.1

Crude Balance Change 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.0 -0.4 -1.2 -2.1 -2.7 -1.6 -0.1 -1.6 -2.5 0.2 -0.5 -2.1 -1.4 -1.0
Crude Balance Change, mb* -1 8 12 1 -11 -37 -65 -83 -49 -4 -48 -77 19 -47 -197 -129 -355

Refinery Processing Gains 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.7

Refined Products Supply 86.0 85.5 85.3 85.7 85.9 87.0 88.2 88.7 87.3 86.3 88.1 88.9 86.6 86.2 88.1 87.8 86.9

Global NGLs and Non-conventional Oils 18.7 18.6 18.6 18.9 19.2 19.5 19.6 19.6 19.4 19.4 19.3 18.9 18.8 19.2 19.6 19.2 19.1

Global Products & Liquids Supply 101.9 101.5 101.3 102.0 102.5 103.8 105.2 105.7 104.1 103.1 104.7 105.1 102.7 102.8 105.0 104.3 103.4

Global Oil Demand ex Direct Crude Use 100.3 101.5 99.5 101.6 101.1 102.2 104.3 104.1 101.6 102.6 101.9 102.2 101.5 101.6 103.3 102.3 101.9

Product Balance Change 1.6 0.0 1.9 0.4 1.3 1.6 0.9 1.6 2.5 0.5 2.7 2.9 1.2 1.1 1.7 2.0 1.5
Product Balance Change, mb* 49 -1 58 12 41 49 29 49 76 15 82 90 106 102 154 187 549

Total Balance Change 1.6 0.2 2.3 0.4 1.0 0.4 -1.2 -1.1 0.9 0.3 1.1 0.4 1.4 0.6 -0.5 0.6 0.5
Total Balance Change, mb* 48 7 70 13 30 12 -36 -34 27 11 34 13 125 55 -43 58 195

Source: IEA, EIA, Wood Mackenzie, Rystad, Genscape, FlightAware, MariTrace, Google, TomTom, US Department of Transportation, J.P. Morgan Commodities Research

11
Natasha Kaneva AC (1-212) 834-3175 Cole Wolf (1-212) 622-5762 Global Commodities Research
[email protected] [email protected]
JPMORGAN
Oil Markets Weekly
JPMorgan Chase Bank NA 04 October 2023
Prateek Kedia (1-646) 326 1124
[email protected]

Table 8: OPEC crude oil production, 2022E

kbd 2022E 2022E 2022E
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q
Algeria 970 970 990 1,000 1,010 1,020 1,020 1,030 1,030 1,040 1,020 1,010 977 1,010 1,027 1,023 1,009
Angola 1,120 1,180 1,160 1,160 1,160 1,220 1,170 1,190 1,150 1,090 1,090 1,120 1,152 1,180 1,170 1,100 1,151
Congo 260 270 260 270 280 290 270 260 270 270 260 220 263 280 267 250 265
Eq. Guinea 100 90 90 90 100 100 110 100 100 70 60 60 93 97 103 63 89
Gabon 190 190 190 180 180 190 220 200 210 220 210 180 190 183 210 203 197
Iran 2,520 2,560 2,550 2,580 2,580 2,580 2,580 2,580 2,550 2,560 2,560 2,580 2,543 2,580 2,570 2,567 2,565
Iraq 4,260 4,260 4,340 4,420 4,390 4,380 4,450 4,420 4,500 4,580 4,490 4,460 4,288 4,397 4,456 4,510 4,413
Kuwait 2,570 2,600 2,620 2,640 2,690 2,720 2,770 2,810 2,820 2,800 2,680 2,670 2,597 2,683 2,800 2,717 2,700
Libya 990 1,120 1,070 900 770 650 650 1,100 1,070 1,180 1,140 1,170 1,058 773 939 1,164 984
Nigeria 1,570 1,550 1,520 1,400 1,230 1,300 1,230 1,100 1,070 1,110 1,170 1,330 1,547 1,309 1,134 1,204 1,297
Neutral Zone 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Saudi Arabia 10,080 10,250 10,250 10,400 10,450 10,550 10,770 10,920 11,020 10,900 10,460 10,480 10,191 10,466 10,902 10,615 10,546
UAE 2,930 2,950 2,970 3,010 3,030 3,080 3,140 3,180 3,200 3,200 3,070 3,040 2,950 3,040 3,173 3,104 3,067
Venezuela 630 680 720 750 750 750 700 670 670 700 660 660 677 750 680 673 695
Azerbaijan 590 600 580 580 570 580 550 550 540 540 550 550 590 577 547 547 565
Bahrain 190 180 200 200 170 180 200 200 200 210 200 200 190 183 200 203 194
Brunei 90 90 80 80 80 70 70 70 60 60 50 70 87 77 67 60 72
Kazakhstan 1,600 1,650 1,550 1,330 1,520 1,220 1,390 1,240 1,220 1,400 1,580 1,600 1,598 1,358 1,284 1,526 1,441
Malaysia 420 420 430 400 400 400 400 350 360 400 390 400 423 400 370 397 397
Mexico 1,681 1,662 1,655 1,636 1,644 1,652 1,651 1,654 1,649 1,651 1,634 1,645 1,666 1,644 1,651 1,644 1,651
Oman 810 820 830 840 840 850 870 880 880 880 850 840 820 843 877 857 849
Russia 10,080 10,110 10,040 9,140 9,290 9,750 9,800 9,770 9,800 9,850 9,870 9,860 10,076 9,392 9,790 9,860 9,779
Sudan 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60
S. Sudan 150
0 140
0 140
0 150
0 150
0 150
0 160
0 160
0 150
0 150
0 150
0 150
0 143
0 150
0 157
0 150
0 150
0
OPEC 10 24,050 24,310 24,390 24,570 24,520 24,850 25,150 25,210 25,370 25,280 24,510 24,570 24,248 24,645 25,242 24,790 24,734
OPEC 13 28,190 28,670 28,730 28,800 28,620 28,830 29,080 29,560 29,660 29,720 28,870 28,980 28,525 28,749 29,431 29,193 28,978
Non-OPEC 15,671 15,732 15,565 14,416 14,724 14,912 15,151 14,934 14,919 15,201 15,334 15,375 15,654 14,684 15,002 15,303 15,159
OPEC+ 39,721 40,042 39,955 38,986 39,244 39,762 40,301 40,144 40,289 40,481 39,844 39,945 39,902 39,330 40,244 40,093 39,894

Source: Rystad, Platts, Refinitiv, J.P. Morgan Commodities Research

12
Natasha Kaneva AC (1-212) 834-3175 Cole Wolf (1-212) 622-5762 Global Commodities Research
[email protected] [email protected]
JPMORGAN
JPMorgan Chase Bank NA 04 October 2023
Prateek Kedia (1-646) 326 1124
[email protected]

Table 9: OPEC crude oil production, 2023F

kbd 2023F 2023F 2023F
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q
Algeria 1,010 1,010 1,000 1,000 960 940 940 930 940 940 940 940 1,007 967 937 940 962
Angola 1,120 1,050 1,010 1,090 1,120 1,110 1,120 1,110 1,130 1,117 1,102 1,086 1,060 1,107 1,120 1,101 1,097
Congo 260 270 280 280 290 290 290 270 267 263 262 259 270 287 276 261 273
Eq. Guinea 50 50 50 60 60 60 60 60 80 79 78 76 50 60 67 78 64
Gabon 180 190 200 200 200 200 210 210 204 205 204 202 190 200 208 204 200
Iran 2,610 2,620 2,600 2,620 2,660 2,710 2,760 2,950 3,100 3,150 3,200 3,300 2,610 2,663 2,935 3,217 2,858
Iraq 4,480 4,330 4,390 4,100 4,100 4,130 4,210 4,320 4,200 4,200 4,200 4,250 4,402 4,110 4,244 4,217 4,243
Kuwait 2,680 2,680 2,680 2,680 2,550 2,550 2,550 2,540 2,560 2,560 2,560 2,560 2,680 2,593 2,550 2,560 2,595
Libya 1,160 1,170 1,150 1,140 1,150 1,140 1,120 1,120 1,100 1,100 1,100 1,100 1,160 1,143 1,113 1,100 1,129
Nigeria 1,400 1,450 1,430 1,180 1,400 1,420 1,320 1,380 1,400 1,400 1,400 1,400 1,426 1,334 1,366 1,400 1,381
Neutral Zone 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Saudi Arabia 10,420 10,460 10,450 10,500 10,000 9,990 9,005 8,950 9,000 9,000 9,000 9,000 10,443 10,162 8,985 9,000 9,642
UAE 3,050 3,060 3,040 3,040 3,000 3,100 3,100 3,100 3,100 3,100 3,100 3,100 3,050 3,046 3,100 3,100 3,074
Venezuela 670 690 690 710 770 800 810 790 830 850 850 850 683 760 810 850 776
Azerbaijan 530 531 520 510 500 500 500 500 550 550 550 550 527 503 516 550 524
Bahrain 150 190 190 190 190 200 200 200 190 190 190 190 176 193 197 190 189
Brunei 80 80 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 77 70 70 70 72
Kazakhstan 1,600 1,550 1,600 1,600 1,550 1,550 1,500 1,450 1,600 1,600 1,600 1,620 1,584 1,566 1,516 1,607 1,568
Malaysia 400 400 390 390 380 370 370 370 400 400 400 400 397 380 380 400 389
Mexico 1,674 1,669 1,680 1,693 1,701 1,698 1,661 1,671 1,680 1,671 1,658 1,633 1,675 1,697 1,671 1,654 1,674
Oman 840 840 840 840 840 800 800 800 810 810 810 810 840 827 803 810 820
Russia 9,850 9,828 9,600 9,650 9,600 9,600 9,550 9,500 9,500 9,500 9,500 9,500 9,757 9,616 9,517 9,500 9,597
Sudan 60 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 60 60 60 60 53 50 53 60 54
S. Sudan 150
0 140
0 140
0 140
0 140
0 150
0 150
0 150
0 140
0 140
0 140
0 140
0 143
0 143
0 147
0 140
0 143
0
OPEC 10 24,650 24,550 24,530 24,130 23,680 23,790 22,805 22,870 22,881 22,864 22,845 22,873 24,578 23,865 22,852 22,861 23,532
OPEC 13 29,090 29,030 28,970 28,600 28,260 28,440 27,495 27,730 27,911 27,964 27,995 28,123 29,030 28,431 27,710 28,028 28,295
Non-OPEC 15,334 15,278 15,080 15,133 15,021 14,988 14,851 14,761 15,000 14,991 14,978 14,973 15,229 15,047 14,869 14,981 15,030
OPEC+ 39,984 39,828 39,610 39,263 38,701 38,778 37,656 37,632 37,880 37,855 37,823 37,846 39,807 38,912 37,721 37,842 38,562

Source: Rystad, Platts, Refinitiv, J.P. Morgan Commodities Research

13
Natasha Kaneva AC (1-212) 834-3175 Cole Wolf (1-212) 622-5762 Global Commodities Research
[email protected] [email protected]
JPMORGAN
Oil Markets Weekly
JPMorgan Chase Bank NA 04 October 2023
Prateek Kedia (1-646) 326 1124
[email protected]

Table 10: OPEC crude oil production, 2024F

kbd 2024F 2024F 2024F
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q
Algeria 994 994 994 994 994 994 994 994 994 994 994 994 994 994 994 994 994
Angola 1,079 1,063 1,049 1,034 1,019 1,005 997 984 970 957 943 936 1,064 1,019 984 945 1,003
Congo 250 250 250 250 240 240 240 240 240 240 240 240 250 243 240 240 243
Eq. Guinea 76 78 77 76 75 74 73 72 72 71 70 69 77 75 72 70 74
Gabon 199 196 197 196 195 193 193 192 191 190 189 187 197 195 192 189 193
Iran 3,300 3,300 3,300 3,300 3,300 3,300 3,300 3,300 3,300 3,300 3,300 3,300 3,300 3,300 3,300 3,300 3,300
Iraq 4,350 4,350 4,350 4,350 4,350 4,350 4,350 4,350 4,350 4,350 4,350 4,350 4,350 4,350 4,350 4,350 4,350
Kuwait 2,560 2,560 2,560 2,560 2,560 2,560 2,560 2,560 2,560 2,560 2,560 2,560 2,560 2,560 2,560 2,560 2,560
Libya 1,100 1,100 1,100 1,100 1,100 1,100 1,100 1,100 1,100 1,100 1,100 1,100 1,100 1,100 1,100 1,100 1,100
Nigeria 1,380 1,380 1,380 1,380 1,380 1,380 1,380 1,380 1,380 1,380 1,380 1,380 1,380 1,380 1,380 1,380 1,380
Neutral Zone 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Saudi Arabia 9,250 9,250 9,250 9,500 9,500 9,500 9,500 9,500 9,500 9,500 9,500 9,500 9,250 9,500 9,500 9,500 9,438
UAE 3,220 3,220 3,220 3,220 3,220 3,220 3,220 3,220 3,220 3,220 3,220 3,220 3,220 3,220 3,220 3,220 3,220
Venezuela 850 850 850 850 850 850 850 850 850 850 850 850 850 850 850 850 850
Azerbaijan 550 550 550 550 550 550 550 550 550 550 550 550 550 550 550 550 550
Bahrain 190 190 190 190 190 190 190 190 190 190 190 190 190 190 190 190 190
Brunei 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70
Kazakhstan 1,620 1,620 1,620 1,620 1,620 1,620 1,620 1,620 1,650 1,660 1,660 1,700 1,620 1,620 1,630 1,673 1,636
Malaysia 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 400
Mexico 1,641 1,621 1,608 1,614 1,619 1,612 1,646 1,649 1,647 1,645 1,636 1,616 1,623 1,615 1,647 1,632 1,630
Oman 810 810 810 810 810 810 810 810 810 810 810 810 810 810 810 810 810
Russia 9,800 9,800 9,800 9,800 9,800 9,800 9,800 9,800 9,800 9,800 9,800 9,800 9,800 9,800 9,800 9,800 9,800
Sudan 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 62 65 68 71 67
S. Sudan 140
0 140
0 140
0 140
0 140
0 140
0 140
0 140
0 140
0 140
0 140
0 140
0 140
0 140
0 140
0 140
0 140
0
OPEC 10 23,358 23,341 23,326 23,560 23,533 23,517 23,507 23,493 23,477 23,462 23,446 23,436 23,342 23,537 23,492 23,448 23,455
OPEC 13 28,608 28,591 28,576 28,810 28,783 28,767 28,757 28,743 28,727 28,712 28,696 28,686 28,592 28,787 28,742 28,698 28,705
Non-OPEC 15,282 15,263 15,251 15,258 15,264 15,258 15,293 15,297 15,326 15,335 15,327 15,348 15,265 15,260 15,305 15,337 15,292
OPEC+ 38,640 38,604 38,577 38,818 38,797 38,774 38,800 38,789 38,803 38,797 38,773 38,784 38,607 38,797 38,797 38,784 38,747

Source: Rystad, Platts, Refinitiv, J.P. Morgan Commodities Research

14
Natasha Kaneva AC (1-212) 834-3175 Cole Wolf (1-212) 622-5762 Global Commodities Research
[email protected] [email protected]
JPMORGAN
JPMorgan Chase Bank NA 04 October 2023
Prateek Kedia (1-646) 326 1124
[email protected]

Table 11: Global crude oil supply, 2022E

mbd 2022E 2022E 2022E
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q
Non-OPEC 45.6 45.7 46.1 44.8 44.7 44.7 45.5 45.7 45.9 46.6 46.8 46.4 45.8 44.7 45.7 46.6 45.7
Africa 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1
Asia 6.0 6.1 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 5.8 5.7 5.8 5.8 5.9 5.8 6.0 6.0 5.8 5.8 5.9
China 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.0 3.9 4.0 4.0 4.0 3.9 4.1 4.1 4.0 4.0 4.1
FSU 12.5 12.6 12.5 11.3 11.7 11.8 12.0 11.8 11.8 12.1 12.3 12.3 12.6 11.6 11.9 12.2 12.1
Russia 10.1 10.1 10.0 9.1 9.3 9.8 9.8 9.8 9.8 9.9 9.9 9.9 10.1 9.4 9.8 9.9 9.8
Latin America 4.8 4.9 4.9 5.0 5.0 4.9 5.1 5.3 5.4 5.5 5.3 5.3 4.9 5.0 5.2 5.4 5.1
Brazil 2.9 2.8 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.2 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.8 3.0 3.0 2.9
Middle East 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.7 1.7
Europe 2.8 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.3 2.6 2.7 2.5 2.7 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.6 2.6 2.8 2.7
Norway 1.7 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.3 1.6 1.8 1.6 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.5 1.7 1.8 1.7
North America 16.4 16.4 16.9 16.8 16.6 16.7 17.0 17.1 17.4 17.5 17.6 17.3 16.6 16.7 17.2 17.5 17.0
United States 10.5 10.3 10.9 10.8 10.8 10.8 10.9 11.0 11.3 11.4 11.4 11.1 10.6 10.8 11.1 11.3 10.9
Canada 4.2 4.4 4.4 4.3 4.1 4.2 4.4 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.6 4.5 4.4 4.2 4.5 4.5 4.4
OECD Pacific 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
OPEC 28.2 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.6 28.8 29.1 29.6 29.7 29.7 28.9 29.0 28.5 28.7 29.4 29.2 29.0
East of Suez 22.4 22.6 22.7 23.1 23.1 23.3 23.7 23.9 24.1 24.0 23.3 23.2 22.6 23.2 23.9 23.5 23.3
Africa 5.2 5.4 5.3 5.0 4.7 4.8 4.7 5.0 4.9 5.0 5.0 5.1 5.3 4.8 4.8 5.0 5.0
Latin America 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7

Total 73.8 74.4 74.8 73.6 73.4 73.6 74.6 75.2 75.6 76.3 75.7 75.3 74.3 73.5 75.1 75.8 74.7

Source: Rystad, J.P. Morgan Commodities Research

Table 12: Global crude oil supply, 2023F

mbd 2023F 2023F 2023F
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q
Non-OPEC 47.0 46.9 46.9 46.5 46.4 46.8 47.3 47.1 47.5 47.6 48.0 47.9 46.9 46.6 47.3 47.9 47.2
Africa 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1
Asia 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 5.8 5.8 5.9 5.9 5.9 5.9 6.0 6.0 5.9 5.9 5.9
China 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.0 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.2 4.2 4.1 4.1 4.1
FSU 12.2 12.2 12.0 12.0 11.9 11.9 11.8 11.7 11.9 11.9 11.9 11.9 12.1 11.9 11.8 11.9 11.9
Russia 9.9 9.8 9.6 9.7 9.6 9.6 9.6 9.5 9.5 9.5 9.5 9.5 9.8 9.6 9.5 9.5 9.6
Latin America 5.5 5.5 5.4 5.4 5.5 5.6 5.8 5.7 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.1 5.5 5.5 5.9 6.0 5.7
Brazil 3.2 3.2 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.3 3.4 3.4 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.1 3.1 3.5 3.6 3.3
Middle East 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7
Europe 2.7 2.7 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.7 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.8 2.7
Norway 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.7
North America 17.6 17.7 17.9 17.5 17.5 17.8 18.2 18.3 18.1 18.2 18.5 18.5 17.7 17.6 18.2 18.4 18.0
United States 11.6 11.5 11.7 11.6 11.7 11.8 11.9 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.1 12.0 11.6 11.7 12.0 12.0 11.8
Canada 4.4 4.5 4.5 4.2 4.1 4.2 4.7 4.6 4.4 4.5 4.8 4.8 4.5 4.2 4.6 4.7 4.5
OECD Pacific 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
OPEC 29.1 29.0 29.0 28.6 28.3 28.4 27.5 27.7 27.9 28.0 28.0 28.1 29.0 28.4 27.7 28.0 28.3
East of Suez 23.2 23.2 23.2 22.9 22.3 22.5 21.6 21.9 22.0 22.0 22.1 22.2 23.2 22.6 21.8 22.1 22.4
Africa 5.2 5.2 5.1 5.0 5.2 5.2 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.2 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1
Latin America 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.8

Total 76.1 76.0 75.8 75.1 74.6 75.3 74.8 74.8 75.5 75.6 76.0 76.1 75.9 75.0 75.0 75.9 75.5

Source: Rystad, J.P. Morgan Commodities Research

15
Natasha Kaneva AC (1-212) 834-3175 Cole Wolf (1-212) 622-5762 Global Commodities Research
[email protected] [email protected]
JPMORGAN
Oil Markets Weekly
JPMorgan Chase Bank NA 04 October 2023
Prateek Kedia (1-646) 326 1124
[email protected]

Table 13: Global crude oil supply, 2024F

mbd 2024F 2024F 2024F
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q
Non-OPEC 48.2 48.2 48.2 48.0 47.8 48.0 48.4 48.3 48.1 48.6 48.8 48.8 48.2 47.9 48.3 48.7 48.3
Africa 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0
Asia 5.9 5.9 5.9 5.9 5.9 5.9 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 5.9 5.9 5.9 6.0 6.0 5.9
China 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.2 4.2 4.1
FSU 12.2 12.2 12.2 12.2 12.2 12.2 12.2 12.2 12.2 12.2 12.2 12.3 12.2 12.2 12.2 12.2 12.2
Russia 9.8 9.8 9.8 9.8 9.8 9.8 9.8 9.8 9.8 9.8 9.8 9.8 9.8 9.8 9.8 9.8 9.8
Latin America 6.1 6.1 6.0 6.1 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.3 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.1 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.2
Brazil 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.6 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7
Middle East 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7
Europe 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.7 2.7
Norway 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7
North America 18.5 18.5 18.4 18.2 18.0 18.2 18.5 18.5 18.3 18.6 18.8 18.8 18.5 18.1 18.4 18.8 18.4
United States 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.1 12.1 12.1 12.1 12.2 12.3 12.3 12.3 12.0 12.1 12.1 12.3 12.1
Canada 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.6 4.3 4.5 4.8 4.8 4.4 4.7 4.9 4.9 4.8 4.5 4.6 4.8 4.7
OECD Pacific 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
OPEC 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.7
East of Suez 22.7 22.7 22.7 22.9 22.9 22.9 22.9 22.9 22.9 22.9 22.9 22.9 22.7 22.9 22.9 22.9 22.9
Africa 5.1 5.1 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 5.1 5.0 5.0 4.9 5.0
Latin America 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9

Total 76.8 76.8 76.7 76.8 76.6 76.8 77.1 77.1 76.8 77.3 77.5 77.5 76.8 76.7 77.0 77.4 77.0

Source: Rystad, J.P. Morgan Commodities Research

Table 14: Global liquids supply, 2022E

mbd 2022E 2022E 2022E
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q
Non-OPEC 61.3 61.5 62.4 61.1 61.6 61.8 62.8 62.6 63.0 63.7 63.9 62.5 61.8 61.5 62.8 63.4 62.4
Africa 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3
Asia 6.7 6.8 6.8 6.7 6.7 6.7 6.5 6.4 6.5 6.5 6.6 6.5 6.8 6.7 6.5 6.5 6.6
China 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.3 4.1 4.1 4.2 4.1 4.2 4.1 4.2 4.2 4.1 4.1 4.2
FSU 14.3 14.4 14.2 13.1 13.3 13.5 13.7 13.4 13.6 13.7 14.1 14.1 14.3 13.3 13.6 14.0 13.8
Russia 11.3 11.4 11.3 10.4 10.4 10.9 11.0 10.9 11.1 11.0 11.1 11.2 11.3 10.6 11.0 11.1 11.0
Latin America 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.4 5.3 5.2 5.4 5.6 5.7 5.8 5.7 5.7 5.2 5.3 5.6 5.7 5.5
Brazil 3.0 2.9 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.8 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.2 3.1 3.1 3.0 2.9 3.1 3.1 3.0
Middle East 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.2 3.1 3.1
Europe 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.1 3.0 2.7 3.0 3.1 2.9 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.3 2.9 3.0 3.2 3.1
Norway 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.5 1.9 2.0 1.8 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.7 1.9 2.0 1.9
North America 24.3 24.2 25.3 25.1 24.9 25.1 25.6 25.6 26.0 26.2 26.3 25.4 24.6 25.0 25.7 26.0 25.3
United States 17.0 16.8 17.8 17.7 17.7 17.8 18.0 18.0 18.5 18.5 18.5 17.7 17.2 17.7 18.2 18.3 17.8
Canada 5.3 5.5 5.6 5.4 5.2 5.3 5.6 5.6 5.5 5.6 5.8 5.6 5.4 5.3 5.5 5.7 5.5
OECD Pacific 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
Other Liquids 2.8 2.8 2.8 3.0 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.6 3.4 3.4 3.3 2.9 2.8 3.4 3.6 3.2 3.2
OPEC 33.6 34.0 34.0 34.1 34.0 34.2 34.4 34.8 34.9 35.0 34.2 34.3 33.9 34.1 34.7 34.5 34.3
East of Suez 22.4 22.6 22.7 23.1 23.1 23.3 23.7 23.9 24.1 24.0 23.3 23.2 22.6 23.2 23.9 23.5 23.3
Africa 5.2 5.4 5.3 5.0 4.7 4.8 4.7 5.0 4.9 5.0 5.0 5.1 5.3 4.8 4.8 5.0 5.0
Latin America 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7
NGL & other liquids 5.4 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3
Processing gains 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6

Total 97.5 98.0 99.0 97.8 98.1 98.5 99.9 100.0 100.6 101.3 100.7 99.3 98.2 98.2 100.2 100.4 99.2

Source: Rystad, J.P. Morgan Commodities Research

16
Natasha Kaneva AC (1-212) 834-3175 Cole Wolf (1-212) 622-5762 Global Commodities Research
[email protected] [email protected]
JPMORGAN
JPMorgan Chase Bank NA 04 October 2023
Prateek Kedia (1-646) 326 1124
[email protected]

Table 15: Global liquids supply, 2023F

mbd 2023F 2023F 2023F
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q
Non-OPEC 63.5 63.8 64.0 63.9 64.2 64.8 65.5 65.2 65.9 66.1 66.2 65.7 63.8 64.3 65.5 66.0 64.9
Africa 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2
Asia 6.8 6.7 6.7 6.7 6.7 6.7 6.5 6.5 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.7 6.7 6.6 6.6 6.6
China 4.3 4.3 4.4 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.3 4.2 4.2 4.3 4.3 4.2 4.2 4.3
FSU 14.1 14.2 14.0 13.9 13.8 13.7 13.6 13.5 13.8 13.8 13.8 13.8 14.1 13.8 13.6 13.8 13.8
Russia 11.1 11.4 11.1 11.0 11.0 10.9 10.8 10.8 10.9 10.9 10.9 10.9 11.2 10.9 10.8 10.9 11.0
Latin America 5.9 5.8 5.7 5.8 5.8 6.0 6.2 6.1 6.4 6.3 6.4 6.4 5.8 5.9 6.2 6.4 6.1
Brazil 3.3 3.3 3.1 3.1 3.2 3.4 3.5 3.4 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.2 3.2 3.6 3.7 3.4
Middle East 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.2 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.2
Europe 3.1 3.1 3.2 3.1 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.1 3.2 3.1
Norway 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.9 2.0 2.0 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0
North America 26.0 26.1 26.7 26.5 26.3 26.9 27.3 27.4 27.4 27.7 28.0 27.9 26.3 26.6 27.4 27.8 27.0
United States 18.4 18.5 19.0 19.0 19.1 19.4 19.4 19.5 19.8 19.9 20.0 19.9 18.6 19.2 19.6 19.9 19.3
Canada 5.5 5.5 5.6 5.3 5.1 5.3 5.8 5.8 5.5 5.7 6.0 6.0 5.5 5.3 5.7 5.9 5.6
OECD Pacific 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
Other Liquids 2.9 2.9 3.0 3.2 3.7 3.7 3.9 3.8 3.7 3.6 3.4 3.0 2.9 3.5 3.8 3.4 3.4
OPEC 34.6 34.5 34.4 34.0 33.6 33.8 32.9 33.1 33.3 33.3 33.3 33.5 34.5 33.8 33.1 33.4 33.7
East of Suez 23.2 23.2 23.2 22.9 22.3 22.5 21.6 21.9 22.0 22.0 22.1 22.2 23.2 22.6 21.8 22.1 22.4
Africa 5.2 5.2 5.1 5.0 5.2 5.2 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.2 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1
Latin America 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.8
NGL & other liquids 5.5 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.3 5.3 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.3 5.4
Processing gains 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.6 2.5 2.7 2.7 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.7

Total 100.7 100.8 101.0 100.6 100.3 101.4 101.1 101.1 101.9 102.1 102.2 101.9 100.8 100.7 101.4 102.1 101.3

Source: Rystad, J.P. Morgan Commodities Research

Table 16: Global liquids supply, 2024F

mbd 2024F 2024F 2024F
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q
Non-OPEC 65.9 65.9 65.8 66.0 66.1 66.5 67.0 66.9 66.4 66.9 67.0 66.6 65.9 66.2 66.8 66.8 66.4
Africa 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2
Asia 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.5 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.6
China 4.2 4.2 4.3 4.3 4.2 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.2 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3
FSU 14.1 14.1 14.1 14.1 14.1 14.1 14.1 14.1 14.1 14.1 14.2 14.2 14.1 14.1 14.1 14.2 14.1
Russia 11.2 11.2 11.2 11.2 11.2 11.2 11.2 11.2 11.2 11.2 11.2 11.2 11.2 11.2 11.2 11.2 11.2
Latin America 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.5 6.6 6.6 6.5 6.6 6.6 6.5 6.5 6.4 6.5 6.6 6.6 6.5
Brazil 3.8 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.7 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8
Middle East 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2
Europe 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 2.9 2.9 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.2 3.1 3.0 3.1 3.1
Norway 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.9 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9
North America 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.6 27.3 27.5 27.9 27.9 27.7 28.1 28.3 28.4 27.8 27.5 27.8 28.3 27.9
United States 19.8 19.9 19.8 19.9 19.9 19.9 19.9 20.0 20.1 20.2 20.2 20.2 19.8 19.9 20.0 20.2 20.0
Canada 6.0 6.0 6.0 5.8 5.4 5.6 5.9 5.9 5.6 5.9 6.1 6.2 6.0 5.6 5.8 6.1 5.9
OECD Pacific 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
Other Liquids 2.9 2.9 3.0 3.3 3.7 3.9 4.0 4.0 3.9 3.8 3.5 3.1 2.9 3.6 3.9 3.5 3.5
OPEC 34.1 34.1 34.0 34.2 34.2 34.2 34.2 34.2 34.2 34.2 34.2 34.1 34.1 34.2 34.2 34.2 34.2
East of Suez 22.7 22.7 22.7 22.9 22.9 22.9 22.9 22.9 22.9 22.9 22.9 22.9 22.7 22.9 22.9 22.9 22.9
Africa 5.1 5.1 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 5.1 5.0 5.0 4.9 5.0
Latin America 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9
NGL & other liquids 5.5 5.5 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.4 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.4 5.5 5.5 5.5
Processing gains 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.7

Total 102.7 102.5 102.5 102.8 102.9 103.4 103.9 103.8 103.3 103.7 103.8 103.4 102.6 103.0 103.6 103.7 103.2

Source: Rystad, J.P. Morgan Commodities Research

17
Natasha Kaneva AC (1-212) 834-3175 Cole Wolf (1-212) 622-5762 Global Commodities Research
[email protected] [email protected]
JPMORGAN
Oil Markets Weekly
JPMorgan Chase Bank NA 04 October 2023
Prateek Kedia (1-646) 326 1124
[email protected]

Table 17: US crude and condensate production table, 2022E

Jan-22 Feb-22 Mar-22 Apr-22 May-22 Jun-22 Jul-22 Aug-22 Sep-22 Oct-22 Nov-22 Dec-22
US crude and condensate production (kbd) 11,480 11,258 11,806 11,770 11,734 11,800 11,834 11,985 12,325 12,378 12,376 12,138
inclusive of
Offshore Gulf of Mexico 1,680 1,613 1,685 1,754 1,607 1,735 1,727 1,761 1,824 1,789 1,797 1,788
Alaska 450 450 440 442 447 419 432 413 430 435 445 447
US tight oil basin crude and condensate production (kbd) 8,062 8,022 8,225 8,101 8,317 8,391 8,485 8,591 8,691 8,813 8,950 8,806
Anadarko 327 322 327 331 332 331 329 329 330 331 342 344
Bakken 1,093 1,087 1,090 939 1,133 1,132 1,133 1,136 1,141 1,147 1,153 1,037
Eagle Ford 1,106 1,108 1,112 1,120 1,135 1,155 1,172 1,185 1,197 1,205 1,211 1,203
Rockies 593 601 618 618 615 614 617 624 633 640 644 638
Permian 4,942 4,904 5,078 5,093 5,102 5,160 5,233 5,316 5,391 5,490 5,600 5,583
US tight oil basin rig counts 443 467 482 507 526 539 549 555 550 557 567 569
Anadarko 48 50 48 48 52 53 55 58 57 59 64 67
Bakken 27 33 34 35 38 38 38 39 40 39 39 39
Eagle Ford 51 57 61 66 70 73 75 78 76 76 75 75
Rockies 25 25 26 28 29 31 32 34 34 37 40 38
Permian 292 302 313 330 337 344 349 346 343 346 349 350
US tight oil basin active frac counts 142 159 163 167 172 178 180 176 179 180 176 176
Anadarko 12 14 11 13 13 11 9 9 9 9 12 13
Bakken 7 10 9 12 12 15 17 16 16 16 15 14
Eagle Ford 18 22 26 28 23 26 31 30 27 30 30 24
Rockies 11 12 16 14 16 14 13 14 17 17 16 17
Permian 94 101 101 100 108 112 110 107 110 108 103 108
US tight oil basin drilled, uncompleted (DUC) well inventory 2,887 2,918 2,930 3,012 3,029 3,030 3,110 2,935 3,094 3,043 2,848 2,881
Anadarko 88 83 85 93 94 94 120 126 138 148 160 161
Bakken 338 334 345 336 348 323 336 299 293 286 278 298
Eagle Ford 342 369 323 321 326 344 351 338 360 335 296 333
Rockies 468 463 459 484 472 491 529 512 536 533 464 435
Permian 1,651 1,669 1,718 1,778 1,789 1,778 1,774 1,660 1,767 1,741 1,650 1,654

Source: EIA, Rystad, Baker Hughes, J.P. Morgan Commodities Research

Table 18: US crude and condensate production table, 2023F

Jan-23 Feb-23 Mar-23 Apr-23 May-23 Jun-23 Jul-23 Aug-23 Sep-23 Oct-23 Nov-23 Dec-23
US crude and condensate production (kbd) 12,568 12,532 12,770 12,650 12,694 12,900 12,991 13,022 13,063 13,101 13,143 13,131
inclusive of
Offshore Gulf of Mexico 1,903 1,828 1,874 1,736 1,708 1,856 1,929 1,914 1,914 1,915 1,946 1,938
Alaska 448 446 435 434 430 423 397 405 399 413 421 421
US tight oil basin crude and condensate production (kbd) 9,018 9,072 9,160 9,242 9,321 9,390 9,445 9,503 9,551 9,574 9,578 9,575
Anadarko 347 351 353 353 356 359 363 365 363 359 354 350
Bakken 1,108 1,141 1,166 1,178 1,190 1,200 1,209 1,218 1,226 1,229 1,228 1,224
Eagle Ford 1,222 1,224 1,233 1,247 1,259 1,263 1,263 1,262 1,262 1,258 1,253 1,249
Rockies 653 656 658 660 662 668 676 687 697 703 704 702
Permian 5,688 5,700 5,749 5,804 5,854 5,899 5,935 5,971 6,003 6,025 6,039 6,049
US tight oil basin rig counts 575 569 562 558 533 512 500 483 473 477 482 483
Anadarko 66 66 63 57 50 44 42 39 38 38 38 38
Bakken 41 41 41 40 37 35 35 34 32 32 32 32
Eagle Ford 78 78 77 73 66 61 58 55 52 52 52 52
Rockies 35 31 32 32 31 30 30 31 30 30 30 30
Permian 355 353 349 356 349 342 335 324 321 325 330 331
US tight oil basin active frac counts 179 188 189 181 187 189 168 162 160 160 161 161
Anadarko 12 11 13 14 15 15 11 10 10 10 10 10
Bakken 15 16 15 14 16 17 16 15 14 14 14 14
Eagle Ford 29 34 32 29 25 28 25 24 23 23 23 23
Rockies 15 16 18 20 21 22 18 16 15 15 15 15
Permian 108 110 110 104 111 106 100 98 99 99 100 100
US tight oil basin drilled, uncompleted (DUC) well inventory 2,720 2,758 2,731 2,694 2,696 2,621 2,500 2,470 2,459 2,437 2,419 2,413
Anadarko 167 169 183 179 175 162 139 135 133 130 127 124
Bakken 299 299 279 275 276 266 249 238 230 224 218 212
Eagle Ford 301 328 328 340 354 366 346 344 338 341 345 349
Rockies 448 464 462 449 426 392 348 333 330 330 330 331
Permian 1,505 1,499 1,479 1,451 1,466 1,436 1,417 1,420 1,428 1,411 1,399 1,398

Source: EIA, Rystad, Baker Hughes, J.P. Morgan Commodities Research

18
Natasha Kaneva AC (1-212) 834-3175 Cole Wolf (1-212) 622-5762 Global Commodities Research
[email protected] [email protected]
JPMORGAN
JPMorgan Chase Bank NA 04 October 2023
Prateek Kedia (1-646) 326 1124
[email protected]

Table 19: US crude and condensate production table, 2024F

Jan-24 Feb-24 Mar-24 Apr-24 May-24 Jun-24 Jul-24 Aug-24 Sep-24 Oct-24 Nov-24 Dec-24
US crude and condensate production (kbd) 13,121 13,130 13,138 13,138 13,152 13,145 13,168 13,231 13,310 13,364 13,389 13,409
inclusive of
Offshore Gulf of Mexico 1,930 1,904 1,883 1,860 1,858 1,845 1,858 1,883 1,890 1,900 1,888 1,885
Alaska 409 420 428 427 419 393 372 379 417 428 434 436
US tight oil basin crude and condensate production (kbd) 9,587 9,611 9,633 9,658 9,683 9,716 9,748 9,779 9,815 9,848 9,881 9,902
Anadarko 348 345 344 342 340 339 337 336 336 335 334 333
Bakken 1,222 1,221 1,219 1,217 1,215 1,214 1,214 1,214 1,214 1,215 1,215 1,215
Eagle Ford 1,248 1,250 1,253 1,257 1,262 1,266 1,271 1,275 1,279 1,283 1,285 1,288
Rockies 701 701 701 700 700 700 701 702 702 703 705 704
Permian 6,068 6,095 6,116 6,141 6,166 6,196 6,224 6,253 6,284 6,313 6,342 6,362
US tight oil basin rig counts 490 493 493 498 503 503 503 503 503 503 503 503
Anadarko 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40
Bakken 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34
Eagle Ford 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54
Rockies 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30
Permian 332 335 335 340 345 345 345 345 345 345 345 345
US tight oil basin active frac counts 163 164 164 165 165 165 165 165 166 166 166 166
Anadarko 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
Bakken 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14
Eagle Ford 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24
Rockies 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15
Permian 100 101 101 102 102 102 102 102 103 103 103 103
US tight oil basin drilled, uncompleted (DUC) well inventory 2,409 2,398 2,387 2,375 2,366 2,365 2,363 2,362 2,360 2,354 2,347 2,358
Anadarko 121 121 120 120 120 120 120 119 119 119 119 119
Bakken 206 205 204 203 202 202 201 200 199 198 198 197
Eagle Ford 352 348 345 341 337 333 330 326 322 318 314 311
Rockies 331 331 331 332 332 332 332 332 333 333 333 333
Permian 1,399 1,393 1,386 1,379 1,375 1,378 1,381 1,384 1,387 1,386 1,384 1,399

Source: EIA, Rystad, Baker Hughes, J.P. Morgan Commodities Research

19
Natasha Kaneva AC (1-212) 834-3175 Cole Wolf (1-212) 622-5762 Global Commodities Research
[email protected] [email protected]
JPMORGAN
Oil Markets Weekly
JPMorgan Chase Bank NA 04 October 2023
Prateek Kedia (1-646) 326 1124
[email protected]

Table 20: Regional oil demand, 2022E

mbd 2022E 2022E 2022E
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q
North America 23.6 24.4 24.6 23.9 24.1 24.9 24.6 24.7 24.4 24.2 24.6 23.8 24.2 24.3 24.6 24.2 24.3
United States 19.6 20.2 20.5 19.7 19.8 20.4 19.9 20.3 20.1 20.0 20.2 19.3 20.1 20.0 20.1 19.8 20.0
Canada 2.3 2.5 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.5 2.6 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.3 2.3 2.5 2.4 2.4
Mexico 1.6 1.7 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.8 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.9

Latin America 6.2 6.5 6.5 6.6 6.6 6.4 6.6 6.8 6.8 6.5 6.6 6.8 6.4 6.5 6.7 6.7 6.6
Brazil 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.0 3.1 2.9 3.2 3.3 3.1 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.0 3.0 3.2 3.2 3.1
Other Latin America 3.3 3.5 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.6 3.6 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5

Europe 13.1 14.6 14.3 14.0 14.2 14.5 14.5 14.9 15.0 14.1 14.2 14.2 14.0 14.2 14.8 14.1 14.3

FSU 4.9 4.8 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.9 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.0 5.1 5.1 4.8 4.8 5.1 5.1 4.9

Middle East 8.6 8.7 8.7 9.1 9.1 9.5 9.5 9.6 9.6 9.1 9.1 9.0 8.7 9.2 9.6 9.1 9.1

Africa 4.1 4.2 4.4 4.3 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.3 4.4 4.3 4.2 4.2 4.4 4.3

Asia Pacific 37.4 37.6 35.7 34.4 34.9 35.5 35.0 35.4 34.7 36.0 36.5 37.5 36.9 34.9 35.0 36.7 35.9
Australia 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.2 1.1 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1
China 15.8 15.6 14.4 13.7 14.3 14.6 14.7 14.8 14.6 15.5 15.1 15.0 15.3 14.2 14.7 15.2 14.9
India 5.1 5.5 5.5 5.4 5.1 5.4 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.2 5.5 5.5 5.4 5.3 5.0 5.4 5.3
Japan 3.8 3.8 3.5 3.0 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.3 3.2 3.2 3.5 4.0 3.7 3.0 3.2 3.6 3.4
Korea 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.6 2.3 2.5 2.6 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.8 2.7 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5
Other Asia Pacific 8.8 8.8 8.7 8.8 8.8 8.9 8.7 8.6 8.3 8.6 8.8 9.0 8.8 8.8 8.5 8.8 8.7

World oil demand 97.9 100.7 98.9 96.9 97.8 100.0 99.6 100.8 99.9 99.3 100.4 100.9 99.1 98.2 100.1 100.2 99.4

Source: Wood Mackenzie, IEA, FlightAware, EIA, MariTrace, Google, TomTom, US Department of Transportation, Various company reports and government statistics, J.P. Morgan

20
Natasha Kaneva AC (1-212) 834-3175 Cole Wolf (1-212) 622-5762 Global Commodities Research
[email protected] [email protected]
JPMORGAN
JPMorgan Chase Bank NA 04 October 2023
Prateek Kedia (1-646) 326 1124
[email protected]

Table 21: Regional oil demand, 2023F

mbd 2023F 2023F 2023F
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q
North America 23.3 24.0 24.3 24.1 24.8 25.3 24.6 25.3 24.6 24.8 24.7 24.4 23.9 24.7 24.8 24.7 24.5
United States 19.1 19.8 20.1 20.0 20.4 20.7 20.1 20.7 20.2 20.4 20.4 20.1 19.7 20.4 20.3 20.3 20.2
Canada 2.3 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.3 2.5 2.6 2.5 2.5
Mexico 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.9 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 2.0 1.9 1.9

Latin America 6.4 6.6 6.7 6.6 6.8 6.6 6.8 6.9 6.7 6.8 6.7 6.6 6.6 6.7 6.8 6.7 6.7
Brazil 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.3 3.2 3.3 3.2 3.1 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.2 3.2
Other Latin America 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.5 3.6 3.6 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5

Europe 13.0 14.6 14.1 13.8 14.4 14.7 14.5 14.6 14.6 14.5 14.3 13.9 13.9 14.3 14.6 14.2 14.3

FSU 4.8 5.0 4.9 4.9 4.8 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.1 5.1 5.0 5.3 4.9 4.9 5.1 5.1 5.0

Middle East 9.0 9.0 9.0 8.9 9.1 9.3 9.5 9.7 9.7 9.3 9.2 8.9 9.0 9.1 9.7 9.1 9.2

Africa 4.2 4.4 4.5 4.3 4.3 4.1 4.3 4.3 4.1 4.2 4.2 4.6 4.3 4.2 4.2 4.3 4.3

Asia Pacific 36.9 37.6 36.9 37.0 37.1 37.2 37.5 37.7 36.7 37.3 37.8 38.3 37.1 37.1 37.3 37.8 37.3
Australia 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1
China 15.4 15.3 15.1 16.2 16.2 16.1 16.7 16.8 16.0 16.6 15.9 15.9 15.3 16.2 16.5 16.1 16.0
India 5.3 5.7 5.7 5.3 5.6 5.6 5.2 5.3 5.2 5.3 5.8 5.7 5.6 5.5 5.2 5.6 5.5
Japan 3.8 3.9 3.5 3.2 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.4 3.8 3.7 3.1 3.2 3.4 3.4
Korea 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.6 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.5
Other Asia Pacific 8.7 8.9 8.8 8.7 8.7 8.9 8.8 8.8 8.9 8.7 8.9 9.0 8.8 8.8 8.8 8.9 8.8

World oil demand 97.6 101.1 100.4 99.6 101.3 102.1 102.5 103.9 101.4 102.1 101.9 102.0 99.7 101.0 102.6 102.0 101.3

Source: Wood Mackenzie, IEA, FlightAware, EIA, MariTrace, Google, TomTom, US Department of Transportation, Various company reports and government statistics, J.P. Morgan

21
Natasha Kaneva AC (1-212) 834-3175 Cole Wolf (1-212) 622-5762 Global Commodities Research
[email protected] [email protected]
JPMORGAN
Oil Markets Weekly
JPMorgan Chase Bank NA 04 October 2023
Prateek Kedia (1-646) 326 1124
[email protected]

Table 22: Regional oil demand, 2024F

mbd 2024F 2024F 2024F
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q
North America 24.7 24.4 24.1 24.3 24.4 25.1 25.2 25.7 24.6 25.1 24.9 24.5 24.4 24.6 25.2 24.8 24.8
United States 20.2 19.8 19.7 19.8 19.9 20.4 20.5 21.0 20.1 20.6 20.4 20.1 19.9 20.1 20.5 20.4 20.2
Canada 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.2 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.6 2.5 2.5
Mexico 2.0 2.1 2.0 2.3 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.0 2.0 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.2 2.1 2.0 2.1

Latin America 6.4 6.8 6.5 6.7 6.8 6.6 7.0 6.9 6.7 6.9 6.8 6.7 6.6 6.7 6.8 6.8 6.7
Brazil 3.0 3.4 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.5 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.3 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.3 3.2
Other Latin America 3.4 3.5 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5

Europe 13.9 14.3 13.9 14.4 14.1 14.3 15.1 14.6 14.5 14.5 14.2 13.9 14.0 14.3 14.7 14.2 14.3

FSU 4.7 4.8 4.8 4.9 4.9 5.0 5.2 5.3 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.3 4.8 4.9 5.2 5.2 5.0

Middle East 9.0 9.1 9.0 9.1 9.1 9.3 9.6 9.8 9.8 9.4 9.2 9.0 9.0 9.1 9.7 9.2 9.3

Africa 4.5 4.4 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.6 4.5 4.5 4.3 4.4 4.4

Asia Pacific 37.9 38.4 37.4 38.5 38.2 38.3 38.6 38.2 37.6 38.3 38.3 39.0 37.9 38.3 38.1 38.5 38.2
Australia 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1
China 15.8 15.9 15.2 16.4 16.4 16.4 17.1 16.6 16.4 17.4 16.3 16.5 15.6 16.4 16.7 16.8 16.4
India 5.7 5.9 6.0 5.8 5.9 5.7 5.6 5.5 5.3 5.5 6.0 5.9 5.8 5.8 5.5 5.8 5.7
Japan 3.6 3.8 3.4 3.3 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.4 3.7 3.6 3.2 3.2 3.4 3.3
Korea 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.6 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.8 2.5 2.5 2.7 2.8 2.6 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.6
Other Asia Pacific 9.1 9.1 9.2 9.4 9.2 9.5 9.0 9.1 9.0 8.7 8.8 8.9 9.1 9.3 9.0 8.8 9.1

World oil demand 101.2 102.3 100.3 102.4 101.9 103.0 105.1 104.9 102.4 103.4 102.7 103.0 101.2 102.4 104.1 103.1 102.7

Source: Wood Mackenzie, IEA, FlightAware, EIA, MariTrace, Google, TomTom, US Department of Transportation, Various company reports and government statistics, J.P. Morgan

22
Natasha Kaneva AC (1-212) 834-3175 Cole Wolf (1-212) 622-5762 Global Commodities Research
[email protected] [email protected]
JPMORGAN
JPMorgan Chase Bank NA 04 October 2023
Prateek Kedia (1-646) 326 1124
[email protected]

Table 23: Regional oil demand by product, 2022E

mbd 2022E 2022E 2022E
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q
United States
LPG 1.5 1.4 1.2 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.4 0.8 0.9 1.1 1.1
Naphtha 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Gasoline 8.1 8.7 9.0 8.8 9.1 9.1 8.8 9.1 8.8 8.8 8.8 8.6 8.6 9.0 8.9 8.7 8.8
Jet and Kerosene 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.6 1.7 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6
Diesel/Gasoil 4.1 4.4 4.2 4.0 3.9 4.0 3.7 3.9 4.1 4.2 4.1 3.8 4.2 4.0 3.9 4.0 4.0
Fuel Oil 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3
Other Products 4.0 3.9 4.0 4.1 4.0 4.3 4.5 4.2 4.1 4.1 4.0 3.7 4.0 4.2 4.2 3.9 4.1
Total Oil 19.6 20.2 20.5 19.7 19.8 20.4 19.9 20.3 20.1 20.0 20.2 19.3 20.1 20.0 20.1 19.8 20.0

Europe
LPG 1.0 1.1 1.1 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.1 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0
Naphtha 1.1 1.1 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.9
Gasoline 1.9 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.3 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.0 2.2 2.3 2.2 2.2
Jet and Kerosene 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.4 1.5 1.2 1.5 1.7 1.5 1.4
Diesel/Gasoil 5.9 6.9 6.8 6.5 6.4 6.5 6.5 6.7 7.0 6.5 6.7 6.7 6.5 6.5 6.7 6.6 6.6
Fuel Oil 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8
Other Products 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.3 1.4
Total Oil 13.1 14.6 14.3 14.0 14.2 14.5 14.5 14.9 15.0 14.1 14.2 14.2 14.0 14.2 14.8 14.1 14.3

China
LPG 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.3 2.2 2.3 2.5 2.3
Naphtha 1.8 1.8 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.5 1.6 1.8 1.7
Gasoline 4.0 4.2 3.3 3.1 3.5 3.6 3.6 3.7 3.5 3.7 3.4 3.2 3.8 3.4 3.6 3.4 3.6
Jet and Kerosene 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.5
Diesel/Gasoil 4.1 3.7 3.7 3.8 4.0 3.8 3.8 3.9 3.9 4.3 4.1 4.0 3.9 3.9 3.9 4.1 3.9
Fuel Oil 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6
Other Products 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.3
Total Oil 15.8 15.6 14.4 13.7 14.3 14.6 14.7 14.8 14.6 15.5 15.1 15.0 15.3 14.2 14.7 15.2 14.9

World
LPG 10.7 10.8 10.2 9.4 9.4 9.6 9.8 9.8 9.9 9.8 10.4 10.8 10.6 9.4 9.8 10.3 10.0
Naphtha 7.1 6.8 6.4 6.3 6.2 6.2 6.4 6.3 6.1 6.1 6.4 6.6 6.8 6.2 6.3 6.4 6.4
Gasoline 24.8 26.1 25.6 25.4 26.3 26.6 26.5 27.0 26.2 26.1 26.0 26.1 25.5 26.1 26.6 26.1 26.1
Jet and Kerosene 6.3 6.3 6.0 5.8 6.0 6.5 6.5 6.6 6.5 6.5 6.4 7.0 6.2 6.1 6.5 6.7 6.4
Diesel/Gasoil 27.8 29.4 29.3 28.6 28.5 29.0 28.3 29.1 29.3 29.5 29.6 29.1 28.8 28.7 28.9 29.4 29.0
Fuel Oil 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.5 6.8 6.8 6.9 7.0 6.5 6.7 6.6 6.4 6.6 6.9 6.6 6.6
Other Products 14.8 14.9 14.9 15.0 14.9 15.3 15.4 15.0 15.0 14.9 14.9 14.6 14.9 15.1 15.1 14.8 15.0
Total Oil 97.9 100.7 98.9 96.9 97.8 100.0 99.6 100.8 99.9 99.3 100.4 100.9 99.1 98.2 100.1 100.2 99.4

Source: Wood Mackenzie, IEA, FlightAware, EIA, MariTrace, Google, TomTom, US Department of Transportation, Various company reports and government statistics, J.P. Morgan

23
Natasha Kaneva AC (1-212) 834-3175 Cole Wolf (1-212) 622-5762 Global Commodities Research
[email protected] [email protected]
JPMORGAN
Oil Markets Weekly
JPMorgan Chase Bank NA 04 October 2023
Prateek Kedia (1-646) 326 1124
[email protected]

Table 24: Regional oil demand by product, 2023F

mbd 2023F 2023F 2023F
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q
United States
LPG 1.3 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 0.9 0.9 1.2 1.0
Naphtha 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Gasoline 8.3 8.7 9.0 9.0 9.1 9.3 9.0 9.3 9.0 8.9 8.8 8.6 8.7 9.1 9.1 8.8 8.9
Jet and Kerosene 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.5 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7
Diesel/Gasoil 3.9 4.0 4.1 3.9 3.9 4.0 3.6 3.8 3.7 4.0 4.0 3.8 4.0 3.9 3.7 3.9 3.9
Fuel Oil 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3
Other Products 3.7 3.9 3.9 4.3 4.5 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.3 4.2 4.4 4.3 3.9 4.4 4.4 4.3 4.2
Total Oil 19.1 19.8 20.1 20.0 20.4 20.7 20.1 20.7 20.2 20.4 20.4 20.1 19.7 20.4 20.3 20.3 20.2

Europe
LPG 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0
Naphtha 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.8
Gasoline 2.0 2.3 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.2
Jet and Kerosene 1.4 1.5 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.4 1.6 1.8 1.7 1.6
Diesel/Gasoil 5.7 6.7 6.5 6.1 6.5 6.7 6.4 6.5 6.7 6.7 6.5 6.3 6.3 6.4 6.5 6.5 6.4
Fuel Oil 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.8
Other Products 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.2 1.3
Total Oil 13.0 14.6 14.1 13.8 14.4 14.7 14.5 14.6 14.6 14.5 14.3 13.9 13.9 14.3 14.6 14.2 14.3

China
LPG 2.4 2.4 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.3 2.3 2.5 2.5 2.4
Naphtha 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.8
Gasoline 3.8 3.8 3.6 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.2 4.0 4.0 3.9 3.7 3.7 4.0 4.1 3.9 3.9
Jet and Kerosene 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.7
Diesel/Gasoil 3.9 3.8 3.9 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.4 4.4 4.2 4.2 4.0 4.1 3.9 4.2 4.3 4.1 4.1
Fuel Oil 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.6
Other Products 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.4 2.6 2.3 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.4 2.4
Total Oil 15.4 15.3 15.1 16.2 16.2 16.1 16.7 16.8 16.0 16.6 15.9 15.9 15.3 16.2 16.5 16.1 16.0

World
LPG 10.7 10.6 10.0 9.7 9.7 9.8 10.0 10.1 9.9 10.2 10.4 10.6 10.4 9.7 10.0 10.4 10.1
Naphtha 6.7 6.5 6.6 6.4 6.2 6.1 6.2 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.7 6.7 6.6 6.3 6.3 6.6 6.4
Gasoline 25.2 26.4 26.4 26.7 27.2 27.5 27.4 27.8 27.0 26.8 26.7 26.8 26.0 27.1 27.4 26.8 26.8
Jet and Kerosene 7.1 7.2 6.9 7.1 7.1 7.5 7.6 7.8 7.4 7.5 7.4 7.7 7.0 7.2 7.6 7.5 7.4
Diesel/Gasoil 27.1 29.1 29.2 28.2 29.2 29.4 29.2 29.4 29.0 29.6 29.4 28.7 28.4 28.9 29.2 29.2 28.9
Fuel Oil 6.4 6.6 6.5 6.4 6.4 6.6 6.7 6.7 6.8 6.5 6.3 6.3 6.5 6.5 6.7 6.4 6.5
Other Products 14.4 14.8 14.8 15.0 15.3 15.3 15.4 15.8 15.2 15.0 15.1 15.3 14.7 15.2 15.4 15.1 15.1
Total Oil 97.6 101.1 100.4 99.6 101.3 102.1 102.5 103.9 101.4 102.1 101.9 102.0 99.7 101.0 102.6 102.0 101.3

Source: Wood Mackenzie, IEA, FlightAware, EIA, MariTrace, Google, TomTom, US Department of Transportation, Various company reports and government statistics, J.P. Morgan

24
Natasha Kaneva AC (1-212) 834-3175 Cole Wolf (1-212) 622-5762 Global Commodities Research
[email protected] [email protected]
JPMORGAN
JPMorgan Chase Bank NA 04 October 2023
Prateek Kedia (1-646) 326 1124
[email protected]

Table 25: Regional oil demand by product, 2024F

mbd 2024F 2024F 2024F
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q
United States
LPG 1.3 1.2 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.0
Naphtha 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1
Gasoline 8.4 8.6 8.8 8.9 9.0 9.2 9.0 9.4 8.8 8.9 8.8 8.6 8.6 9.0 9.1 8.8 8.9
Jet and Kerosene 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.9 1.9 2.0 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.8 1.6 1.8 1.9 1.8 1.8
Diesel/Gasoil 4.1 4.0 3.9 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.7 3.7 3.9 3.9 3.7 4.0 3.7 3.7 3.9 3.8
Fuel Oil 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3
Other Products 4.4 3.9 4.0 4.3 4.3 4.2 4.4 4.5 4.3 4.3 4.4 4.4 4.1 4.3 4.4 4.4 4.3
Total Oil 20.2 19.8 19.7 19.8 19.9 20.4 20.5 21.0 20.1 20.6 20.4 20.1 19.9 20.1 20.5 20.4 20.2

Europe
LPG 1.0 1.1 1.0 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0
Naphtha 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9
Gasoline 2.0 2.1 2.0 2.2 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.0 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.1
Jet and Kerosene 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.5 1.7 1.8 1.7 1.7
Diesel/Gasoil 6.3 6.5 6.2 6.4 6.3 6.3 6.8 6.5 6.7 6.7 6.5 6.3 6.4 6.3 6.6 6.5 6.5
Fuel Oil 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8
Other Products 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.3
Total Oil 13.9 14.3 13.9 14.4 14.1 14.3 15.1 14.6 14.5 14.5 14.2 13.9 14.0 14.3 14.7 14.2 14.3

China
LPG 2.2 2.4 2.1 2.2 2.4 2.5 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.6 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.6 2.5
Naphtha 1.7 1.8 1.6 1.8 1.9 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.8 2.1 1.9 2.0 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.0 1.8
Gasoline 4.1 4.0 3.9 4.2 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 3.9 3.8 4.0 4.1 4.1 4.0 4.1
Jet and Kerosene 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8
Diesel/Gasoil 4.2 4.0 3.9 4.3 4.1 4.1 4.3 4.2 4.2 4.3 4.0 4.2 4.0 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.1
Fuel Oil 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.6
Other Products 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.6 2.4 2.5 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.4
Total Oil 15.8 15.9 15.2 16.4 16.4 16.4 17.1 16.6 16.4 17.4 16.3 16.5 15.6 16.4 16.7 16.8 16.4

World
LPG 10.3 10.4 9.7 9.7 9.8 9.8 10.3 10.1 10.0 10.4 10.6 10.8 10.2 9.8 10.1 10.6 10.2
Naphtha 6.7 7.0 6.5 6.4 6.3 6.1 6.7 6.6 6.4 6.6 6.8 6.9 6.7 6.3 6.6 6.8 6.6
Gasoline 26.2 26.5 26.4 27.3 27.2 27.6 27.6 28.2 26.9 27.1 26.9 27.1 26.4 27.3 27.6 27.1 27.1
Jet and Kerosene 7.0 7.1 7.4 7.7 7.8 8.2 8.5 8.6 8.1 8.1 7.7 8.0 7.2 7.9 8.4 8.0 7.9
Diesel/Gasoil 29.0 29.4 28.6 29.3 28.9 28.9 29.6 29.2 29.0 29.7 29.3 28.8 29.0 29.0 29.3 29.3 29.1
Fuel Oil 6.8 7.0 6.7 6.6 6.6 7.1 6.9 6.8 6.9 6.4 6.2 6.2 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.3 6.7
Other Products 15.1 14.8 14.9 15.4 15.4 15.2 15.5 15.5 15.2 15.0 15.1 15.3 15.0 15.3 15.4 15.1 15.2
Total Oil 101.2 102.3 100.3 102.4 101.9 103.0 105.1 104.9 102.4 103.4 102.7 103.0 101.2 102.4 104.1 103.1 102.7

Source: Wood Mackenzie, IEA, FlightAware, EIA, MariTrace, Google, TomTom, US Department of Transportation, Various company reports and government statistics, J.P. Morgan

25
Natasha Kaneva AC (1-212) 834-3175 Cole Wolf (1-212) 622-5762 Global Commodities Research
[email protected] [email protected]
JPMORGAN
Oil Markets Weekly
JPMorgan Chase Bank NA 04 October 2023
Prateek Kedia (1-646) 326 1124
[email protected]

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Natasha Kaneva AC (1-212) 834-3175 Cole Wolf (1-212) 622-5762 Global Commodities Research
[email protected] [email protected]
JPMORGAN
Oil Markets Weekly
JPMorgan Chase Bank NA 04 October 2023
Prateek Kedia (1-646) 326 1124
[email protected]

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Natasha Kaneva AC (1-212) 834-3175 Cole Wolf (1-212) 622-5762 Global Commodities Research
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JPMORGAN
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Prateek Kedia (1-646) 326 1124
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