By

Hemant Kumar,(PhD Scholar)

NIT Patna(Part-Time)-cum-
SOL-DU-Online Councilor(Optimization)
 Project Scheduling(PERT -CPM)
Calculating Critical Path Analysis:-To predict the Notations
project's overall duration and give starting and
finishing durations to every activity involved. This
makes it easier to compare the project's actual
progress to its projected completion date.
The expected duration of an activity is estimated from Note:-There should only be one start event and one
the duration of individual activities, which may be finish event in a project schedule. The other events
determined uniquely (in the case of CPM) or may entail are numbered consecutively with integer 1, 2,…, n,
three-time estimates (as discussed in the case of such that i<j for any two events i and j connected by
PERT). The following elements need to be understood an activity, which starts at i and finishes at j.
in order to establish the project scheduling.
– Total completion time of the
project. Forward Pass Method (For Earliest Event Time)
– Earlier and latest start time of calculations start at the first event, let's say 1, move
each activity. through the events in increasing order of the event
– Critical activities and critical path. numbers, and finally stop at the last event, let's say
– Float for each activity. N. Each event's earliest occurrence time (E) as well
Notations: as the earliest start and end times for each activity
that starts there, are determined.
 Project Scheduling(PERT- CPM)
Forward Pass Method (For Earliest Event Time) Backward Pass Method (For Latest Allowable
The project's earliest probable completion time is Event Time):- The computations in this technique
determined by the event N's earliest occurrence time start with the final event N, move through the events
when calculations cease at that point. The procedure in decreasing sequence of event numbers, and finally
can be summed up as follows arrive at the first event 1. Each event's latest
occurrence time (L), as well as the most recent start
and completion times for each activity that is ending
there, are determined. Up until the initial occurrence,
the process is repeated. The procedure is as:-
 Project Scheduling(PERT -CPM)
Float (Slack) of an Activity and Event Critical Path:-Certain activities in any project are
called critical activities because delay in their
execution will cause further delay in the project
completion time. All activities having zero total float
value are identified as critical activities, i.e., L = E.
The critical path is the sequence of critical activities
between the start event and end event of a project.
This is critical in the sense that if execution of any
activity of this sequence is delayed, then completion
of the project will be delayed. A critical path is shown
by a thick line or double lines in the network diagram.
The length of the critical path is the sum of the
individual completion times of all the critical
activities and define the longest time to complete the
project. The critical path in a network diagram can be
identified as below
 Project Scheduling(PERT -CPM)
Example : An established company has decided to
add a new product to its line. It will buy the product
from a manufacturing concern, package it, and sell it
to a number of distributors that have been selected
on a geographical basis. Market research has already
indicated the volume expected and the size of sales
force required. The steps shown in the following table
are to be planned.

As the figure shows, the company can begin to

organize the sales office, design the package, and
order the stock immediately. Also, the stock must be
ordered and the packing facility must be set up before
the initial stocks are packaged.
• Draw an arrow diagram for this project.
• Indicate the critical path.
The precedence relationship among these activities
are shown in figure as • For each non-critical activity, find the total and
free float.
 Project Scheduling(PERT -CPM)
Sol: (a) The arrow diagram for the given project, along Figure 1: Network Diagram
with E-values and L-values, is shown in Fig.1. Determine
the earliest start time – Ei and the latest finish time –
Lj for each event by proceeding as follows:

b)The critical path in the network diagram. This

has been done by double lines by joining all those
events where E-values and L-values are equal.
The critical path of the project is: 1 – 2 – 5 – 6 –
9 – 10 and critical activities are A, B, C, L and M.
The total project completion time is 25 weeks.
 Scheduling with Uncertain Activities times
For each non-critical activity, the total float and free To estimate the parameters ‘mean and variance’ of
float calculations are as:- the β- distribution three-time estimates(Optimistic
time-a, Pessimistic time-b, Most likely time-m) for
each activity are required to calculate its expected
completion time The β-distribution is not
necessarily symmetric; the degree of skewness
depends on the location of the
The range of is assumed to enclose every
possible duration of the activity. already explained in
slid 10.
Scheduling with uncertain activity times: We used the
CPM technique, which assumes that all activity times are standard deviation CP
known and fixed constants, to find all earliest and latest
Estimation of Project Completion Time:- the
times to date as well as the related critical path(s)-CP
probability of completing the project on the schedule
i.e. activity times are constant. However it is possible time, is
that other factors will affect how quickly a task is
completed. PERT was developed to handle projects
where the time duration for each activity is not known
with certainty but is a random variable that is
 Scheduling with Uncertain Activities times
Example: The following network diagram represents Sol: a)Calculations for expected completion time (te)
activities associated with a project of an activity and variance (σ2), using formula

b)The earliest and latest expected completion time

for all events considering the expected completion
time of each activity are
 Scheduling with Uncertain Activities times

The E-value and L-values are

TRADE-COST TRADE-OFFS
The initial creators of CPM gave the project manager
the choice to allocate resources to tasks in order to
speed up project completion. The option to shorten
activity times must consider the increased expenses
involved, as more resources (such as additional
c) The critical path is shown by thick line in Fig. where employees, overtime, etc.) typically raise project
E-values and L-values are the same. The critical path is: costs. In essence, the decision that the project
1 – 4 – 7 and the expected completion time for the manager must make entails exchanging decreased
project is 42.8 weeks activity time for increased project cost
 Project Crashing –Time Cost Trade-off
Project Crashing: It is usual for a project manager to tasks have crashed. The process of determining time-
encounter one or both of the following circumstances cost trade-offs for project completion can be
while overseeing a project: Both the projected project summed up as
completion date and the project's timeline are behind Step 1: Determine the normal project completion time
schedule. In either case, some or all of the ongoing and associated critical path.
tasks must be expedited in order to complete the Step 2: Identify critical activities and compute the
project by the target deadline. Crashing is the process cost slope for each of these by using the relationship
of reducing the length of a project in the most
affordable way possible. Additionally, extending an
activity's duration past its usual point (cost-efficient)
may raise the expense of carrying out that action. For The values of cost slope for critical activities indicate
the sake of simplicity, it is assumed that the the direct extra cost required to execute an activity
relationship between an activity's normal time and per unit of time.
cost as well as crash time and cost is linear. Step 3: For reducing the total project completion
Therefore, by calculating the relative change in the time, identify and crash an activity time on the
cost per unit change in time, the crash cost per unit of critical path with lowest cost slope value to the point
time may be determined where another path in the network becomes critical,
Time-Cost Trade-Off Procedure: When all essential or the activity has been crashed to its lowest
tasks are accomplished in accordance with schedule, possible time.
crashing begins, and it ends when all essential
 Project Crashing –Time Cost Trade-off
Step 4: If the critical path under crashing is still (a) Draw the network diagram for the project and
critical, return to step 3. However, if due to crashing of identify the critical path.
an activity time in step 3, other path(s) in the network (b) What are the normal project duration and
also become critical, then identify and crash the associated cost?
activity(s) on the critical path(s) with the minimum joint (c) Find out the total float associated with non-
cost slope. critical activities.
• Step 5: Terminate the procedure when each critical (d) Crash the relevant activities and determine the
activity has been crashed to its lowest possible optimal project completion time and cost.
time. Determine total project cost corresponding Sol;-a)Network for normal activity times is:-
to different project durations.
Example : The data on normal time, cost and
crash time and cost associated with a project are
The Indirect
cost is Rs 50
per week

( 6,7)

The critical path is:

with a project completion time of 32 weeks.
 Project Crashing –Time Cost Trade-off
b)The normal total project cost associated with The minimum value of crash cost per week is for
normal project duration of 32 weeks is as :- activity 2 – 5 and 5 – 6. Hence, crashing activity 2 –
Total cost = Direct normal cost + Indirect cost for 32 5 by 2 days from 9 weeks to 7 weeks. But the time
weeks= 4,220 + 50 × 32 = Rs 5,820 should only be reduced by 1 week otherwise another
c) Calculations for total float associated with non path become a
critical parallel path. Hence revised network is:-
activities are

d) For critical activities, crash cost-slope is

when it is observed that new project time is 31 weeks
and the critical path are
and . With crashing
of activity 2 – 5, the crashed total project cost
becomes:
 Project Crashing –Time Cost Trade-off
Crashed total cost = Total direct normal cost + The updated network diagram is
Increased direct cost due to crashing ofactivity (2 –
5) + Indirect cost for 31 weeks

new possibilities for crashing critical activities

are listed as Crash Cost Slope

Hence, the crashed total cost becomes:= Total direct

normal cost + Increased direct cost due to crashing
of activity (5 – 6) + Indirect cost for 29 weeks=
4,220 + (1 × 45 + 2 × 45) + 50 × 29 = Rs 5,805. For
revised network the new possibilities for crashing
in the critical paths the Crash Cost Slope are
Since crashed cost slope for activity 5 – 6 is
minimum, its time may be crashed by 2 weeks from 6
weeks to 4 weeks.
Remarks:-In these two network The critical Paths
remain unchanged because activity 5 – 6 is common
in both With crashing of activity 5 – 6 by 2 weeks
 Limitation on PERT - CPM
The further crashing 6 – 7 activity time from 4 weeks • PERT consistently underestimates the expected
to 3 weeks will result in increased direct cost than the project completion time due to alternate paths
gain due to reduction in project time. Hence, terminate becoming critical
crashing. The optimal project duration is 29 weeks with • To overcome the limitation, Monte Carlo
associated cost of Rs 5,805 as shown as Crashing simulations can be performed on the network to
Schedule of Project eliminate the optimistic bias
Computer Software for Project Management
• Microsoft Project (Microsoft Corp.)
• MacProject (Claris Corp.)
• PowerProject (ASTA Development Inc.)
LIMITATION:-Clearly defined, independent and stable • Primavera Project Planner (Primavera)
activities • Project Scheduler (Scitor Corp.)
• Specified precedence relationships Over emphasis • Project Workbench (ABT Corp.)
on critical paths
• Deterministic CPM model:-Activity time estimates
are subjective and depend on judgment
• PERT assumes a beta distribution for these time
estimates, but the actual distribution may be
different
 MARKOV PROCESS -1906
Stochastic Process: is a family of random variables • discrete-state process → chain
{X(t) | t ε T} (T is an index set; it may be discrete or • discrete-time process → stochastic
continuous) sequence {Xn | n є T} (e.g., probing
• Values assumed by X(t) are called states. a system every 10 ms.)
• State space (I): set of all possible states Markov Process:-Stochastic proc. {X(t) | t
• Sometimes called a random process or a chance є T} is Markov if for any t0 < t1< … < tn< t,
process the conditional distribution satisfies the
Markov property:
At a fixed time t=t1, we have a random variable X(t1).
Similarly, we have X(t2), .., X(tk).
X(t1) can be characterized by its distribution function,
Markov Chains
We can also consider the joint distribution function, These probabilities are constant and independent of
previous behavior – this memory lessness of the
system is called the Markov property. We assume
Discrete and continuous cases:
that a transition – picking up and dropping off a fare
States X(t) (i.e. time t) may be discrete/continuous – occurs each time the system is observed, and that
State space I may be discrete/continuous observations occur at regular intervals. Systems
with these characteristics are called Markov chains
or Markov processes.
 MARKOV PROCESS
The Markov chain is a fundamental mathematical from the same state space, a body of mathematics.The
tool for stochastic processes. The Markov Property real line, the integers, or the n-dimensional Euclidean
is the essential idea, according to which some space are a few examples of the state space.
stochastic process predictions can be made more {X(t), t ∈T}, defined on some probability space (Ω, F,
simply by treating the future as independent of the P), where T is a parameter space, is referred to as a
past in light of the process's present state. This is stochastic process. State space refers to the collection
done to make stochastic process future state of all potential values for all random variables, and
forecasts simpler to comprehend. This section will states are its constituent parts e.g.
explore the principles of Markov chains, X1 = first toss, X2 = second toss, ………, Xn = nth toss.
A stochastic process is one whose outcomes Then, the collection of random (X1, X2, ……., Xn)
depend on some element of chance. A stochastic or variables is called stochastic process
random process is a collection of random variables
that is indexed by a mathematical set, which means STATE SPACE:-The values assumed by a random
that each random variable in the stochastic process is variable X(t) are called or states and the collection of
specifically linked to an element in the set. all possible values forms the state space (S) of the
process. If X(t)= i, then we say the process is in state i.
The index set is the collection used to index the
random variables. In the past, the index set was a Discrete state process: This state space is finite or
subset of the real line, such as I the natural number, countable for example the non- negative integers
which gave the index set a temporal interpretation. {0,1,2,3,….}.Continuous state process: This state
The collection's random variables all draw their values space contains finite of infinite intervals of the real
 MARKOV PROCESS
A stochastic process can be classified in different A sequence of random variables {Xn, where n = 0, 1, 2,
ways for example, by its state space, its index set, or 3, …..} with discrete state space is known as markov
the dependence among the random variable. chain if, Pr(Xn =K | Xn-1 = j, Xn-2 = j1,,………. X0 = jn-1)
Discrete/ Continuous time: A stochastic process is = Pr(Xn =K | Xn-1 = j) = pjk
considered to be in discrete time if the index set has
a finite or countable number of elements, such as a Then the partial sum of random variable or present
finite set of numbers, the set of integers, or the value is Sn = X1 + X2 + ………….. + Xn = {0, 1, 2, ……., n}
natural numbers. Discrete-time stochastic process is
the name given to this particular kind of stochastic So, the future value is, Sn+1 = X1 + X2 +………+ Xn + Xn+1
process. Time is referred to as continuous and Therefore the markov chain is, {Sn, n ≥ 1}
stochastic processes are referred to as continuous -
time stochastic processes if the index set of the TRANSITION PROBABILTY
stochastic process is some interval of the real line.
Discrete/ Continuous state space: The stochastic
process is referred to as a discrete or integer-valued
stochastic process if the state space consists of
integers or natural numbers. The stochastic process
is known as a real-valued stochastic process or a
process with continuous state space if the state space Let S be a state space, such that S = {0, 1, 2, …….} then
is the real line. the transition probability matrix(TPM) is
 MARKOV PROCESS
Standard TPM is Is Given that may 1 is a dry
Row sum=1 day, find the probability
Column sum=1 that May 3 is a dry day.
Solution: Given that X1 = May 1 is a dry day.
Probability that X3 = May 3 is a dry day is :-

Properties of TPM:-pij∈S ≥ 0
– If each row sum is 1, then the
matrix is known as stochastic
matrix. Therefore, P(X3 = 0 | X1 = 0) = 5/12
– If each column sum is 1, then the Second method using transition graph: Let the
matrix is known as doubly transition matrix is
stochastic matrix.
Example: Suppose that the probability of a dry day
(state 0) followinga rainy day is 1/3 and probability of
a rainy day (state 1) following a dry day is 1/2. If there
is a two-state Marcov chain such that p10 = 1/3 and Hence -
p01 = 1/2 and the transition probability matrix (TPM),
 MARKOV PROCESS
Example: Consider a markov chain {Xn | ≥ 0} with Then, find P(X3 = 1 | X0 = 1) and calculate the joint
state space {1, 2, 3} and transition matrix, probability, P(X3 = 1, X1 = 1, X0 = 2)
Then, find P(X3 = 1 | X0 = 0) Sol: S = {0, 1, 2}
Sol: The transition graph Find P(X3 = 1 | X0 = 1)
corresponding to the given = 3/16
TPM is

INITIAL DISTRIBUTION
Let the state space is {0, 1, 2,…},
initial state = 0, then P(X0 = i) is called initial
distribution and
Example: Let {Xn, n ≥ 0} be a markov chain with 3
sattes 0, 1, 2 and with transition matrix is :-
& initial distribution,
Pr(X0 = i) = 1/3,
i = 0, 1, 2
 CLASSIFICATION OF STATES
Accessibility otherwise the markov chain is called reducible
If pij(n) > 0, where n ≥ 1, then state j is accessible from markov chain.
state i.Let if p01 = 1/2 > 0, which means that state 1 is Example: Check whether the given transition matrix is
accessible from state 0 And if p10 = 0, which means irreducible or reducible for the state space {0, 1, 2}
that state 0 is not accessible from state 1. Sol: The transition diagram
Communicating state for the given TPM is,

Communicating class Obviously, C(0) = {0, 1, 2}

Let i ∈S then C(i) is called the communicating class Therefore, the given
such that C(i) = { i ∈S | i « i } transition matrix is
Let, i, j, k ∈S and i « j , Then, C(i) = {i, j, k} Irreducible
Closed set of states Sol: The transition diagram
If i and j communicate only with each other, not from for the given TPM is
other states, then C(i) = {i, j} is called the closed set of
states. Irreducible & reducible chain Hence
A markov chain is said to be irreducible if every state
communicate with each other, i.e., there is only one
communicating class. i.e., C(i) = S The given TPM is reducible
 CLASSIFICATION OF STATES
Absorbing state Example: find the period of the states from the
• If for any state i, C(i) has only one element, then following transition diagram: Solution: From the
the state is called an absorbing state. Eg.: If C(i) = diagram it is clear that,
{i}, then i is called absorbing state. d(0) = gcd{1, 2, 3, }=1
• And if C(j) = {j, k}, then j is not an absorbing state. d(1) = gcd{ 2, 3, 4, }=1
Example: Find the absorbing states for the TPM: First visit probability: The first visit probability is
Sol: From the TPM it is clear
that, C(0) = {0, 1} i.e., i→j in n-steps but can not visit i in less than n-
C(1) = {0, 1} steps. It must be n-steps only
C(2) = {2} Example: Find f (2) from the given transition diagram
Here, {2} is absorbing state. Sol: From the graph
Periodicity: The period of the state i ∈ S is defined as
d(i) or λ(i) and is as
where n is the number of steps Mean Passage time
If f (n) be the first visit probability, then mean passage
time is given by
 CLASSIFICATION OF STATES
First return probability

Mean recurrence time