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Ba 1502 HW3

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Ba 1502 HW3

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Perzival
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BA 1502 Spring 2020

HOMEWORK 3

STUDENT ANSWERS FOR THE FOLLOWING EXERCISES

(Ayda KURT ID: 2364008)

1) Exercise 4.70

Hypergeometric Distribution

N=10 , x= 5 , n=6

∁𝑥𝑠 𝐶𝑛−𝑥
𝑁−𝑠
𝑃 (𝑥) =
∁𝑁
𝑛

P(1) + P(2) = ?

∁15 ∁55 ∁52 ∁54 55


10 + 10 = 210 = 0.2619
∁6 ∁6
2) Exercise 4.73
a) Marginal probability distributions for X and Y:

X
Y 1 2 P(y) Mean of Y Var of Y Standard deviation Y
0 0.3 0.2 0.5 0 0.125
1 0.25 0.25 0.5 0.5 0.125

P(x) 0.55 0.45 1 0.5 0.25 0.5

Mean of X 0.55 0.9 1.45


Var of X 0,111375 0,136125 0.2475
Standard deviation X 0.497494

xyP(x,y) 0.25 0.5 0.75


Cov(x,y)=
ƩƩxyP(x,y)- µ𝑥 𝜇𝑦 0.025

b) The covariance and correlation for X and Y:

𝐶𝑜𝑣(𝑋, 𝑌) = ∑ ∑ 𝑥𝑦 𝑃(𝑥, 𝑦) − 𝜇𝑥 𝜇𝑦 = 0.75 − (1.45)(0.5) = 0.25


𝑥 𝑦

𝐶𝑜𝑣(𝑋,𝑌) 0.025
⍴ = 𝐶𝑜𝑟𝑟 (𝑋, 𝑌) = 𝜎𝑥 𝜎𝑦
= (0.497494)(0.5) = 0.1005

c) The mean and the variance for the linear function W= 2X + Y


µ𝑤 = 𝑎µ𝑥 + 𝑏µ𝑦 = 2(1.45) + 1(0.5) = 3.4
𝜎𝑤2 = 𝑎 2 𝜎𝑥2 + 𝑏2 𝜎𝑦2 + 2𝑎𝑏𝐶𝑜𝑣(𝑋, 𝑌) = 22 (0.2475) + 12 (0.25) + 2(2)(1)(0.025) = 1.34

3) Exercise 4.93

a) P(X=3)= (53) × (0.55)3 (0.45)2 = 0.3369

b) P(X≥ 3) = 𝑃(3) + 𝑃(4) + 𝑃(5) = 0.3369 + (54)(0.55)4 (0. 45)1 + (55)(0.55)5 (0.45)0 =
0.5931

c) µ= np= (80) (0.55) = 44 will graduate in 4 years.


σ = √80 × (0.55) × (0.45) = 4.4497
The proportion is 4.4497/80= 0.5562

4) Exercise 4.100

X
Y 40 50 60 70 P(y) Mean of Y Var of Y Standard deviation Y
45 0 0 0.05 0.2 0.25 11,25 17, 01563
50 0.05 0 0.05 0.1 0.2 10 2, 1125
55 0.1 0.05 0 0.05 0.2 11 0,6125
60 0.2 0.1 0.05 0 0.35 21 15,9469

P(x) 0.35 0.15 0.15 0.35 1 53.25 35,6875 5,973902

Mean of X 14 7.5 9 24.5 55


Var of X 78.75 3.75 3.75 78.75 165
Standard deviation X 12,84523

xy P(x,y) 800 437.5 465 1172.5 2875


Cov (x,y)=

ƩƩxy(Px,y)-μ(x)μ(y) -53.75
The mean and variance for the linear function W = aX + bY

𝜇𝑤 = 𝑎𝜇𝑥 + 𝑏𝜇𝑦 = (10)55 + (5)53 × 25 = 816.25

𝜎𝑤2 = 𝑎2 𝜎𝑥2 + 𝑏2 𝜎𝑦2 + 2𝑎𝑏𝐶𝑜𝑣(𝑥, 𝑦) = 102 (165) + 52 (35.6875) + 2(10)(5)(−53.75)


= 12017.1875
5) Exercise 4.102
a) The Poisson Probability Distribution because
 The random variable is the number of occurrences of delivery failures in a
continuous interval as one day
15+10+8+16+12+11+9+8+12+9+10+8+7+16+14+12+10+9+8,+11
b) λ = 20
= 10.75
Cumulative Poisson with 10.75

X P(X≤x)

1.00 0.0003

2.00 0.0015

3.00 0.0059

4.00 0.0179

5.00 0.0435

6.00 0.0895

7.00 0.1601

8.00 0.2549

9.00 0.3682

10.00 0.4900

11.00 0.6091

12.00 0.7157

13.00 0.8039

14.00 0.8716

15.00 0.9201

16.00 0.9527

17.00 0.9733

18.00 0.9857

19.00 0.9926

20.00 0.9964

𝑃 (𝑋 ≥ 10) = 1 − 𝑃(𝑋 ≤ 9) = 1 − 0.3682 = 0.6318

c) 𝑃 (𝑋 < 6) = 𝑃 (𝑋 ≤ 5) = 0.0435

d) According the cumulative distribution function table of the probabilities for P(X>x)
P(X>14) = (1 – 0.8716) is greater than 10%
P(X>15) = (1- 0.9201) is less than 10%
So,
The number of failures such that the probability of exceeding this number is 10% or
less is 15

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