Unit-2 Probabilistic reasoning

Acting under uncertainty – Bayesian inference – naïve bayes models. Probabilistic reasoning –
Bayesian networks – exact inference in BN – approximate inference in BN – causal networks.

CONTENTS

2.1 Acting under uncertainty

2.1.1 Summarizing uncertainty

2.1.2 Uncertainty and rational decisions

2.2 Probabilistic reasoning – Bayesian networks

2.2.1 Representing the full joint distribution

2.2.2 Conditional independence relations in Bayesian networks

2.3 EXACT INFERENCE IN BAYESIAN NETWORKS

2.3.1 Inference by enumeration

2.3.1 Inference by enumeration

2.3.3 The complexity of exact inference

2.3.4 Clustering algorithms

2.4 Approximate inference in BN

2.4.1 Direct sampling methods

2.4.2 Inference by Markov chain simulation

2.5 causal networks.
An agent working in real world environment almost never has access to whole
truth about its environment. Therefore, agent needs to work under uncertainity.
Earlier agents we have seen make the epistemological commitment that either
the facts (expressed as prepositions) are true, false or else they are unknown.
When an agent knows enough facts about its environment, the logical approach
enables it to derive plans, which are guaranteed to work.
But when agent works with uncertain knowledge then it might be impossible to
construct a complete and correct description of how its actions will work. If a
logical agent can not conclude that any perticular course of action achieves its
goal, then it will be unable to act.
The right thing logical agent can do is, take a rational decision. The rational
decision depends on following things:
• The relative importance of various goals.

• The likelihood and the degree to which, goals will be achieved. Acting

Under Uncertainty
An agent would possess some early basic knowledge of the world (Assume that
knowledge is represented in first order logic sentence). Using first order logic to
handle real word problem domains fails for three main reasons as discussed
below:
1) Laziness:
It is too much work to list the complete set of antecedents or consequents
needed to ensure an exceptionless rule and too hard to use such rules.
2) Theoretical ignorance:
A perticular problem may not have complete theory for the domain.
3) Practical ignorance:
Even if all the rules are known, perticular aspects of problem are not checked
yet or some details are not considered at all (missing out the details).
The agent's knowledge can provide it with a degree of belief with relevent
sentences. To this degree of belief probability theory is applied. Probability
assigns a numerical degree of belief between 0 and 1 to each sentence.
Probability provides a way of summarizing the uncertainity that comes from our
laziness and ignorance.
Assigning probability of 0 to a given sentence corresponds to an unequivocal
belief saying that sentence is false. Assigning probability of 1 corresponds to an
unequivocal belief saying that the sentence is true. Probabilities between 0 and
1 correspond to intermediate degree of belief in the truth of the sentence.
The beliefs completely depends on percepts of agent at perticular time. These
percepts constitute the evidence on which probability assertions are based.
Assignment of probability to a proposition is analogous to saying that whether
the given logical sentence (or its negation) is entailed by the knowledge base
rather than whether it is true or not. When more sentences are added to
knowledge base the entailment keeps on changing. Similarly the probability
would also keep on changing with additional knowledge.
All probability statements must therefore, indicate the evidence with respect to
which the probability is being assessed. As the agent receives new percepts, its
probability assessments are updated to reflect the new evidence. Before the
evidence is obtained, we talk about prior or unconditional probability; after the
evidence is obtained, we talk about posterior or conditional probability. In most
cases, an agent will have some evidence from its percepts and will be interested
in computing the posterior probabilities of the outcomes it cares about.
Uncertainty and rational decisions:
The presence of uncertainty drastically changes the way an agent makes
decision. At perticular time an agent can have various available decisions, from
which it has to make a choice. To make such choices an agent must have a
preferences between the different possible outcomes, of the various plans.
A perticular outcome is completely specified state, along with the expected
factors related with the outcome.
For example: Consider a car driving agent who wants to reach at airport by a
specific time say at 7.30 pm.
Here factors like, whether agent arrived at airport on time, what is the length of
waiting duration at the airport are attached with the outcome.

Utility Theory
Utility theory is used to represent and reason with preferences. The term utility
in current context is used as "quality of being useful".
Utility theory says that every state has a degree of usefulness called as utility.
The agent will prefer the states with higher utility.
The utility of the state is relative to the agent for which utility function is
calculated on the basis of agent's preferences.
For example: The pay off functions for games are utility functions. The utility
of a state in which black has won a game of chess is obviously high for the
agent playing black and low for the agent playing white.
There is no measure that can count test or preferences. Someone loves deep
chocolate icecream and someone loves chocochip icecream. A utility function
can account for altruistic behavior, simply by including the welfare of other as
one of the factors contributing to the agent's own utility.
Decision theory
Preferences as expressed by utilities are combined with probabilities for making
rational decisions. This theory, of rational decision making is called as decision
theory.
Decision theory can be summarized as,
Decision theory = Probability theory + Utility theory.
• The principle of Maximum Expected Utility (MEU):
Decision theory says that the agent is rational if and only if it chooses the action
that yields highest expected utility,averaged over all the possible outcomes of
the action.
• Design for a decision theoretic agent:
Following algorithm sketches the structure of an agent that uses decision theory
to select actions.
The algorithm
Function: DT-AGENT (percept) returns an action.
Static: belief-state, probabilistic beliefs about the current state of the world.
action, the agent's action.
- Update belief-state based on action and percept
- Calculate outcome probabilities for actions, given actions descriptions
and current belief-state
- Select action with highest expected utility given probabilities of outcomes
and utility information
- Return action.
A decision therotic agent that selects rational actions.
The decision theoretic agent is identical, at an abstract level, to the logical
agent. The primary difference is that the decision theoretic agent's knowledge of
the current state is uncertain; the agent's belief state is a representation of the
probabilities of all possible actual states of the world.
As time passes, the agent accumulates more evidence and its belief state
changes. Given the belief state, the agent can make probabilistic predictions of
action outcomes and hence select the action with highest expected utility.

The Basic Probability Notation

The probability theory uses propositional logic language with additional
expressivness.
The probability theory uses represent prior probability statements, which apply
before any evidence is obtained. The probability theory uses conditional
probability statements which include the evidence explicitly.
1. Propositions
1) The propositions (assertions) are attached with the degree of belief.
2) Complex proposition can be formed using standard logical connectives.
For example: [(Cavity = True) (Toothache = False)] and [(Cavity Toothache)]
both are same assertions.
• The random variable:
1) The basic element of language is random variable.
2) It reffers to a "part" of the world whose "status" is initially unknown.
For example: In toothache problem 'cavity' is a random variable which can refer
to my left wisdom tooth or right wisdom tooth.
3) Random variables are like symbols in propositional logic.
4) Random variables are represented using capital letters. Whereas unknown
random variable can be represented with lowercase letter.
For example: P (a) = 1 - P (-a)
5) Each random variable has a domain of values that it can take on. That is
domain is, set of allowable values for random variable.
For example: The domain of cavity can be < true, false >
6) A random variable's proposition will assert that what value is drawn for the
random variable from its domain.
For example: Cavity = True is proposition.
Saying that "there is" cavity in my lower left wisdom tooth".
7) Random variables are divided into three kinds, depending on their domain.
The types are as follows.
i) Boolean random variables: These are random variables that can take up
only boolean values.
For example: Cavity, it takes value either true or false.
ii) Discrete random variables: They take values from countable domain. They
also include boolean domain. The values in the domain must be mutually
exclusive and exhaustive (finite).
For example: Weather, it has domain < sunny, rainy, cloudy, cold >
iii) Continuous random variables: They take values from real numbers. The
domain can be either entire real line or subset of it like intervals [2, 3].
For example: X = 4.14 asserts that X has exact value 4.14
Propositions having continuous random variable can have inequalities like X ≤
4.14.
2. Atomic Events
1) An atomic event is a complete specification of the state of the world about
which agent is uncertain.
2) They are represented as variables. These variables are assigned values from
the real world.
For example: If the world is consists of cavity and Toothache then there are four
distinct atomic events,
a) Cavity = False Ʌ Toothache = True
b) Cavity = False Ʌ Toothache = False
c) Cavity = True Ʌ Toothache = False
d) Cavity = True Ʌ Toothache = True
e) Properties of atomic events
i) They are mutually exclusive - That is at most one can actually be the case.
For example: (Cavity Ʌ Toothache) and (Cavity Ʌ ⌐ Toothache) can not both
be the case.
ii) The set of all possible atomic events is exhaustive out of which at least one
must be the case. That is, the disjunction of all atomic events is logically
equivalent to true.
iii) Any particular atomic event entails the truth or falsehood of every
proposition, whether simple or complex.
For example -
The atomic event
(Cavity Ʌ⌐ Toothache) entails the truth of cavity and the Falsehood of (cavity
→ toothache).
iv) Any proposition is logically equivalent to the disjunction of all atomic
events that entail the truth of the proposition.
For example: The proposition cavity is equivalent to disjunction of the atomic
events (cavityɅtoothache) and (cavity Ʌ ⌐ toothache).
3. Prior Probability (Unconditional Probability)
1) The prior (unconditional) probability is associated with a proposition 'a'.
2) It is the degree of belief accorded to a proposition in the absence of
information.
3) It is written as P(a).
For example: The probability that, Ram has cavity = 0.1, then prior probability
is written as, P (Cavity = true) = 0.1 or P (Cavity) = 0.1
4) It should be noted that as soon as new information is received, one should
reason with the conditional probability of 'a' depending upon new information.
5) When it is required to express probabilities of all the possible values of a
random variable, then a vector of values is used. It is represented using P(a).
This represents values for the probabilities of each individual state of the 'a'.
For example: P (Weather) = < 0.7, 0.2, 0.08, 0.02 > is representing four
equations
P (Weather = Sunny) = 0.7
P (Weather = Rain) = 0.2
P (Weather = Cloudy) = 0.08
P (Weather = Cold) = 0.02
6) The expression P(a) is said to be defining prior probability distribution for
the random variable 'a'.
7) To denote probabilities of all random variables combinations, the expression
P(a1, a2) can be used. This is called as joint probability distribution for random
variables a1, a2. Any number of random variables can be mentioned in the
expression.
8) A simple example of joint probability distribution is,
→ P<Weather, Cavity> can be represented as, 4×2 table of probabilities.
(Weather's probability) (Cavity probability)
9) A joint probability distribution that covers the complete set of random
variables is called as full joint probability distribution.
10) A simple example of full joint probability distribution is,
If problem world consists of 3 random variables, wheather, cavity, toothache
then full joint probability distribution would be,
P<Weather, Cavity, Toothache>
It will be represented as, 4×2×2, table of probabilities.
11) Prior probability for continuous random variable:
i) For continuous random variable it is not feasible to represent vector of all
possible values because the values are infinite. For continuous random variable
the probability is defined as a function with parameter x, which indicates that
random variable takes some value x.
For example: Let random variable x denotes the tomorrow's temperature in
Chennai. It would be represented as,
P(X = x) = U [25 – 37] (x).
This sentence express the belief that X is distributed uniformly between 25 and
37 degrees celcius.
ii) The probability distribution for continuous random variable has probability
density function.
4. Conditional Probability
1) When agent obtains evidence concerning previously unknown random
variables in the domain, then prior probability are not used. Based on new
information conditional or posterior probabilities are calculated.
2) The notation is P(a | b) where a and b are any proposition.
The 'P' is read as "the probability of a given that all we know is b". That is when
b is known it indicates probability of a.
For example: P (Cavity | Toothache) = 0.8
it means that, if patient has toothache (and no other information is known) then
the chances of having cavity are = 0.8
3) Prior probability are infact special case of conditional probability. It can be
represented as P(a) which means that probability 'a' is conditioned on no
evidence.
4) Conditional probability can be defined interms of unconditional probabilities.
The equation would look like,
P(a/b) =P(aɅb) / P(b), it holds whenever P(b) > 0 …(7.1.1)
The above equation can also be written as,
P(a Ʌ b) = P(a | b) P(b)
This is called as product rule. In other words it says, for 'a' and 'b' to be true we
need 'b' to be true and we need a to be true given b. It can be also written as,
P(a Ʌ b)= P(b | a) P(a).
5) Conditional probability are used for probabilistic inferencing.
6) P notation can be used for conditional distribution. P(x | y) gives the values
of P(X = xi | Y = yj) for each possible i, j. following are the individual equations,
P(X = x1 ^ Y = y1) = P(X = x1 |Y = y1) P(Y = y1)
P(X = x1 ^ Y = y2) = P(X = x1 |Y = y2) P(Y = y2)
These can be combined into a single equation as,
P(X, Y) = P(X | Y) P(Y)
7) Conditional probabilities should not be treated as logical implications. That
is, "When 'b' holds then probability of 'a' is something", is a conditional
probability o and not to be mistake as logical implication. It is wrong on two
points, one is, P(a) always denotes prior probability. For this it do not require
any evidence. P(a | b) = 0.7, is immediately relevant when b is available
evidence. This will keep on altering. When information is updated logical
Implications do not change over time.
5. The Probability Axioms
Axioms gives semantic of probability statements. The basic axioms
(Kolmogorov's axioms) serve to define the probability scale and its end points.
1) All probabilities are between 0 and 1. For any proposition a, 0 ≤ P(a) ≤1.
2) Necessarily true (i.e, valid) propositions have probability 1, and necessarily
false (i.e., unsatisfiable) propositions have probability 0.
P(true) = 1 P(false) = 0
3) The probability of a disjunction is given by
P (a v b) = P(a) + P(b) - P(a Ʌ b)
This axiom connects the probabilities of logically related propositions. This rule
states that, the cases where 'a' holds, together with the cases where 'b' holds,
certainly cover all the causes where 'a v b' holds; but summing the two sets of
cases counts their intersection twice, so we need to subtract P(a Ʌ b).
Note The axioms deal only with prior probabilities rather than conditional
probabilities; this is because prior probability can be defined in terms of
conditional probability.
Using the axioms of probability:
From basic probability axioms following facts can be deduced.
P(a v¬ a) = P(a) + P(¬a) - P(a Ʌ¬a) (by axiom 3 with b = ¬ a)
P(true) = P(a) + P(¬ a) - P(false) (by logical equivalence)
1 = P(a) + P(¬ a) (by axiom 2)
P(¬ a) = 1 - P(a) (by algebra).
• Let the discrete variable D have the domain <d1,....., dn>.
Then, Σni=1 P(D=di) = 1.
That is, any probability distribution on a single variable must sum to 1.
• It is also true that any joint probability distribution on any set of variables
must sum to 1. This can be seen simply by creating a single megavariable
whose domain is the cross product of the domains of the original variables.
• Atomic events are mutually exclusive, so the probability of any conjunction of
atomic events is zero, by axiom 2.
• From axiom 3, we can derive the following simple relationship: The
probability of a proposition is equal to the sum of the probabilities of atomic
events in which it holds; that is P(a) = Σei ε e(a) P(ei) …..(7.1.2)
6. Inference using Full Joint Distribution
Probabilistic inference means, computation from observed evidence of posterior
probabilities, for query propositions. The knowledge base used for answering
the query is represented as full joint distribution. Consider simple example,
consists of three boolean variables, toothache, cavity, catch. The full joint
distribution is 2×2×2, as shown below.

Note that the probability in the joint distribution sum to 9.

• One particular common task in inferencing is to extract the distribution over
some subset of variables or a single variable. This distribution over some
variables or single variables is called as marginal probability.
For example: P(Cavity) = 0.108 +0.012+ 0.072 + 0.008. = 0.2
This process is called as marginalization or summing. Because the variables
other than 'cavity' (that is whose probability is being counted) are summed out.
• The general marginalization rule is as follows,
For any sets of variables Y and Z,
P(Y) = Σ z P(Y, z). ….(7.1.3)
It indicates that distribution Y can be obtained by summing out all the other
paulay to variables from any joint distribution X containing Y.
• Variant of above example of general marginalization rule involved the
conditional to to probabilities using product rule.
P(Y) = Σ z P(Y | z) P(z) ….(7.1.4)
This rule is conditioning rule.
For example: Computing probability of a cavity, given evidence of a
toothacheis as follows:
P(Cavity | Toothache) =P(Cavity Ʌ Toothache) /P(Toothache) = 0.108+0.012 /
0.108+0.012+0.016+0.064 = 0.6
• Normalization constant: It is variable that remains constant for the distribution,
which ensures that it adds in to 1. a is used to denote such constant.
For example: We can compute the probability of a cavity, given evidence of a
toothache, as follows:
P(Cavity | Toothache) = P(Cavity Ʌ Toothache)/ P(Toothache) = 0.108+0.012/
0.108+0.012+0.016+0.064 = 0.6
Just to check we can also compute the probability that there is no cavity given a
toothache:
P( Cavity / Toothache)= P (¬Cavity Ʌ Tootache) /P (Toothache) = 0.016+
0.064 / 0.108+0.012+ 0.016+ 0.064 = 0.4
Notice that in these two calculations the term 1/P (toothache) remains constant,
no matter which value of cavity we calculate. With this notation we can write
above two equations in one.
P(Cavity | Toothache) = αP(Cavity, Toothache)
= α [P(Cavity, Toothache, Catch) + P(Cavity, Toothache, ¬ Catch)]
= α [< 0.108, 0.016> + <0.012, 0.064>]
= α <0.12, 0.08> = <0.6, 0.4>
From above one can extract a general inference procedure.
Consider the case in which query involves a single variable. The notation used
is let X be the query variable (cavity in the example), let E be the set of
evidence variables (just toothache in the example) let e be the observed values
for them, and let Y be the remaining unobserved variable (just catch in the
example). The query is P(X/e) and can be evaluated as
P(X | e) = α P(X, e) = α Σ y P(X, e, y) ……(7.1.5)
where the summation is over all possible ys (i.e. all possible combinations of
values of the unobserved variables 'y'). Notice that together the variables, X, E
and Y constitute the complete set of variables for the domain, so P (X, e, y) is
simply a subset of probabilities from the full joint distribution.
7. Independance
It is a relationship between two different sets of full joint distributions. It is also
called as marginal or absolute independance of the variables. Independence
indicates that whether the two full joint distributions affects probability of each
other.
The independance between variables X and Y can be written as follows,
P(X | Y) = P(X) or P(Y | X) = P(Y) or P(X, Y) = P(X) P(Y)
• For example: The weather is independant of once dental problem. Which can
be shown as below equation.
P(Toothache, Catch, Cavity, Weather) = P(Toothache, Catch, Cavity)
P(Weather).
• Following diagram shows factoring a large joint distributing into smaller
distributions, using absolute independence. Weather and dental problems are
independent.

8. Bayes' Rule
Bayes' rule is derived from the product rule.
The product rule can be written as,
P(a Ʌ b)=P(a | b) P(b) .…(7.1.6)
P(a Ʌ b)=P(b | a) P(a) .... (7.1.7)
[because conjunction is commutative]
Equating right sides of equation (7.1.6) and equation (7.1.7) and dividing by
P(a),
P(b | a) = P(a | b)P(b) / P(a)
This equation is called as Bayes' rule or Bayes' theorem or Bayes' law. This rule
is very useful in probabilistic inferences.
Generalized Bayes' rule is,
P(Y | X) = P(X | Y) P(Y) / P(X)
(where P has same meanings)
We can have more general version, conditionalized on some background
evidence e.
P(Y | X, e) = P(X |Y, e) P(Y | e) / P(X | e)
General form of Bays' rule with normalization's
P(y | x) = α P(x | y) P(y).
Applying Bays' Rule:
1) It requires total three terms (1 conditional probability and 2 unconditional
Probabilities). For computing one conditional probability.
For example: Probability of patient having low sugar has high blood pressure is
50 %.
Let, M be proposition, 'patient has low sugar'.
S be a proposition, 'patient has high blood pressure'.
Suppose we assume that, doctor knows following unconditional fact,
i) Prior probabilition of (m) = 1/50,000.
ii) Prior probability of (s) = 1/20.
Then we have,
P(s | m) = 0.5
P(m) = 1 | 50000
P(s) = 1 | 20
P(m/s) = P(s | m) P(m) / P(s)
= 0.5×1/50000 /1/20
= 0.0002
That is, we can expect that 1 in 5000 with high B.P. will has low sugar.
2) Combining evidence in Bayes' rule.
Bayes rule is helpful for answering queries conditioned on evidences.
For example: Toothache and catch both evidences are available then cavity is
sure to exist. Which can be represented as,
P(Cavity | Toothache ^ Catch) = α <0.108, 0.016> ≈ <0.871, 0.129>
By using Bayes' rule to reformulate the problem:
P(Cavity | Toothache ^ Catch) = α P(Toothache A Catch | Cavity) P(Cavity)
……(7.1.8)
For this reformulation to work, we need to know the conditional probabilities of
the conjunction Toothache Catch for each value of Cavity. That might be
feasible for just two evidence variables, but again it will not scale up.
If there are n possible evidence variable (X-rays, diet, oral hygiene, etc.), then
there are 2n possible combinations of observed values for which we would need
to know conditional probabilities.
The notion of independence can be used here. These variables are independent,
however, given the presence or the absence of a cavity. Each is directly caused
by the cavity, but neither has a direct effect on the other. Toothache depends on
the state of the nerves in the tooth, where as the probe's accuracy depends on the
dentist's skill, to which the toothache is irrelevant.
Mathematically, this property is written as,
P(Toothache ^ Catch | Cavity) = P(Toothache | Cavity) P(Catch | Cavity) . …
(7.1.9)
This equation expresses the conditional independence of toothache and catch,
given cavity.
Substitute equation (7.1.3) into (7.1.4) to obtain the probability of a cavity:
P (Cavity | Toothache ^Catch) = α P (Toothache | Cavity) P (Catch | Cavity) P
(Cavity)
Now, the information requirement are the same as for inference using each
piece of evidence separately the prior probability P(Cavity) for the query
variable and the conditional probability of each effect, given its cause.
Conditional independence assertions can allow probabilistic systems to scale
up; more over, they are much more commonly available than absolute
independence assertions. When their are 'n' variables given that they are all
conditionally independent, the size of the representation grows as O(n) instead
of O(2n).
For example -
Consider dentistry example, in which a single cause, directly influences a
number of effects, all of which are conditionally independent, given the cause.
The full joint distribution can be written as,
P(Cause, Effect1,..., Effectn) = P(Cause) II P(Effecti | Cause).
Such a probability distribution is called as naive Bayes' model - "naive" because
it is often used (as a simplifying assumption) in cases where the "effect"
variables are not conditionally independent given the cause variable. The naive
Bayes model is sometimes called as Bayesian classifier.
 Figure 2.1 A simple Bayesian network in which Weather is independent of the other three
variables and Toothache and Catch are conditionally independent, given Cavity.

Figure 13.2 A typical Bayesian network, showing both the topology and the conditional
probability tables (CPTs). In the CPTs, the letters B, E, A, J, and M stand for Burglary,
Earthquake, Alarm, JohnCalls, and MaryCalls, respectively.

Figure 13.3 Network structure and number of parameters depends on order of introduction. (a) The structure
obtained with ordering M, J, A, B, E. (b) The structure obtained with
M, J, E, B, A. Each node is annotated with the number of parameters required; 13 in all for
(a) and 31 for (b). In Figure ??, only 10 parameters were required.

Figure 13.4 (a) A node X is conditionally independent of its non-descendants (e.g., the Zijs)
given its parents (the Uis shown in the gray area). (b) A node X is conditionally independent
of all other nodes in the network given its Markov blanket (the gray area).

Figure 13.5 A complete conditional probability table for ¶(Fever | Cold, Flu, Malaria),
assuming a noisy-OR model with the the three q-values shown in bold.

Figure 13.6 A simple network with discrete variables (Subsidy and Buys) and continuous
variables (Harvest and Cost) Figure 13.7 The graphs in (a) and (b) show the probability distribution over Cost as
a function of Harvest size, with Subsidy true and false, respectively. Graph (c) shows the distribution P(Cost |
Harvest), obtained by summing over the two subsidy cases. Figure 13.8 (a) A normal (Gaussian) distribution for
the cost threshold, centered on µ = 6.0
with standard deviation σ = 1.0. (b) Expit and probit models for the probability of buys given
cost, for the parameters µ = 6.0 and σ = 1.0. Figure 13.9 A Bayesian network for evaluating car insurance
applications. Figure 13.10 The structure of the expression shown in Equation (??). The evaluation proceeds top
down, multiplying values along each path and summing at the “+” nodes. Notice
the repetition of the paths for j and m. Figure 13.11 The enumeration algorithm for exact inference in Bayes
netsFigure 13.11 The enumeration algorithm for exact inference in Bayes netsFigure 13.13 The variable
elimination algorithm for exact inference in Bayes nets. Figure 13.14 Bayes net encoding of the 3-CNF sentence
(W ∨ X ∨ Y ) ∧ (¬W ∨ Y ∨ Z) ∧ (X ∨ Y ∨ ¬Z) . Figure 13.15 (a) A multiply connected network describing
Mary’s daily lawn routine: each
morning, she checks the weather; if it’s cloudy, she usually doesn’t turn on the sprinkler; if
the sprinkler is on, or if it rains during the day, the grass will be wet. Thus, Cloudy affects
WetGrass via two different causal pathways. (b) A clustered equivalent of the multiply
connected network. Figure 13.16 A sampling algorithm that generates events from a Bayesian network. Each
variable is sampled according to the conditional distribution given the values already sampled
for the variable’s parents. igure 13.17 The rejection-sampling algorithm for answering queries given evidence in
a Bayesian network.

Figure 13.18 The likelihood-weighting algorithm for inference in Bayesian networks. In

WEIGHTED-SAMPLE, each nonevidence variable is sampled according to the conditional
distribution given the values already sampled for the variable’s parents, while a weight is
accumulated based on the likelihood for each evidence variable. Figure 13.20 The Gibbs sampling algorithm for
approximate inference in Bayes nets; this
version chooses variables at random, but cycling through the variables but also works. Figure 13.21 (a) The
states and transition probabilities of the Markov chain for the query
P(Rain | Sprinkler = true, WetGrass = true). Note the self-loops: the state stays the same
when either variable is chosen and then resamples the same value it already has. (b) The transition probabilities
when the CPT for Rain constrains it to have the same value as Cloudy.

Figure 13.23 (a) A causal Bayesian network representing cause–effect relations among five
variables. (b) The network after performing the action “turn Sprinkler on.”

TWO MARKS

1.Why does uncertainty arise?

Agents almost never have access to the whole truth about their environment.
Uncertainty arises because of both laziness and ignorance. It is inescapable in
complex, nondeterministic, or partially observable environments
Agents cannot find a categorical answer.
Uncertainty can also arise because of incompleteness, incorrectness in agents
understanding of properties of environment.
2. Differentiate uncertainty with ignorance.
A key condition that differentiates ignorance from uncertainty is the absence
of knowledge about the factors that influence the issues
3. What is the need for probability theory in uncertainty?
Probability provides the way of summarizing the uncertainty that comes from
our laziness and ignorance. Probability statements do not have quite the same kind
of semantics known as evidences.
4. What is the need for utility theory in uncertainty?
Utility theory says that every state has a degree of usefulness, or utility to in
agent, and that the agent will prefer states with higher utility.
5. Define principle of maximum expected utility (MEU)?
`The fundamental idea of decision theory is that an agent is rational if and only if
it chooses the action that yields the highest expected utility, averaged over all the
possible outcomes of the action. This is called the principle of maximum expected
utility (MEU).
6. Mention the needs of probabilistic reasoning in AI.
When there are unpredictable outcomes.
When specifications or possibilities of predicates becomes too large to
handle.
When an unknown error occurs during an experiment.
7. What does the full joint probability distribution specify?
The full joint probability distribution specifies the probability of each
complete assignment of values to random variables. It is usually too large to create
or use in its explicit form, but when it is available it can be used to answer queries
simply by adding up entries for the possible worlds corresponding to the query
propositions.
8. State Bayes' Theorem in Artificial Intelligence.
Bayes' theorem is also known as Bayes' rule, Bayes' law, or Bayesian
reasoning, which determines the probability of an event with uncertain
knowledge. It is a way to calculate the value of P(B|A) with the knowledge of
P(A|B). Bayes' theorem allows updating the probability prediction of an event by
observing new information of the real world.
Example: If cancer corresponds to one's age then by using Bayes' theorem,
we can determine the probability of cancer more accurately with the help of age.

9.What is Bayesian Belief Network?

A Bayesian network is a probabilistic graphical model which represents a set
of variables and their conditional dependencies using a directed acyclic graph. It is
also called a Bayes network, belief network, decision network, or Bayesian model.
Bayesian networks are probabilistic, because these networks are built from a
probability distribution, and also use probability theory for prediction and
anomaly detection.
A Bayesian network is a directed graph in which each node is annotated with
quantitative probability information. The full specification is as follows:
1. Each node corresponds to a random variable, which may be discrete or
continuous.
2. A set of directed links or arrows connects pairs of nodes. If there is an arrow
from node X to node Y , X is said to be a parent of Y. The graph has no directed
cycles (and hence is a directed acyclic graph, or DAG).
3. Each nodeXi has a conditional probability distribution P(Xi |Parents(Xi))
that quantifies the effect of the parents on the node.
Part B
1. How to get the exact inference form Bayesian network?
2. Explain variable elimination algorithm for answering queries on Bayesian
networks?
3. Define uncertain knowledge, prior probability and conditional probability.
State the Bayes’ theorem. How it is useful for decision making under
uncertainty? Explain belief networks briefly?
4. Explain the method of handling approximate inference in Bayesian networks.
5. What is Bayes’ rule? Explain how Bayes’ rule can be applied to tackle
uncertain Knowledge.
6. Discuss about Bayesian Theory and Bayesian network.
7. Explain how does Bayesian statistics provide reasoning under various kinds
of uncertainty?
8. How to get the approximate inference from Bayesian network.
9. Construct a Bayesian Network and define the necessary CPTs for the given
scenario. We have a bag of three biased coins a,b and c with probabilities of
coming up heads of 20%, 60% and 80% respectively. One coin is drawn
randomly from the bag (with equal likelihood of drawing each of the three
coins) and then the coin is flipped three times to generate the outcomes X1,
X2 and X3.
a. Draw a Bayesian network corresponding to this setup and define the
relevant CPTs.
b. Calculate which coin is most likely to have been drawn if the flips come
up HHT
10. Consider the following set of propositions
Patient has spots
Patient has measles
Patient has high
fever
Patient has Rocky mountain spotted fever.
Patient has previously been inoculated against measles.
Patient was recently bitten by a tick
Patient has an allergy.
a) Create a network that defines the casual connections among these nodes.
b) Make it a Bayesian network by constructing the necessary conditional
probability matrix.