GDACS impact assessment: Orange Flood alert in Thailand

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The Global Disaster Alert and Coordination System provides near realtime alerts about natural disasters around the world and tools to facilitate response coordination, including media monitoring, map catalogues and Virtual On-Site Operations Coordination Centre. Alerts Current events Automatic Impact Coordination Archive News About GDACS My alert account Maps About alerts ReliefWeb Documents

Orange Flood Alert in Thailand

Summary
Orange flood alert in ThailandFri, 5 Aug 2011
00:00 +0000

SOURCE: DARTMOUTH FLOOD OBSERVATORY

BASED ON MEDIA ANALYSIS

The flood started on 8/5/2011 and ended on 11/15/2011, with a duration of 103 days. This flood has severity class 2 (i.e. this is an extreme event with an estimated recurrence interval greater than 100 years). The main cause is Tropical Storms, Monsoonal Rain. The alert score is based on the reported death and displaced. Red = 1000 or more people killed or 800000 or more people displaced. Orange = 100 or more people killed or 80000 or more displaced. alert score: 2 magnitude: 7.3 duration: 103 severity: 2 affected region: 96785.77 km2

Impact
Reports indicate that 500 person(s) have been killed and 10000 have been displaced. No reports on damage have been found. The flood affected a region of approximately 96785.77 km2.

Location
For the following locations damage has been reported: Phrae, Sukhothai, Uttaradit, Phichit, Phitsanulok, Tak, Nakhon Sawan and Ayutthaya provinces The approximate geographic location of this flood is 17.04 latitude and 102.82 longitude. This is the centroid of the affected area, as determined by the place names mentioned in the media.

Analysis and notes from the media:

November 1, 2011: "BANGKOK (Reuters) ? Thai authorities tried to stem growing anger among flood victims on Tuesday as water swamped new neighborhoods and the government began mapping out a plan costing billions of dollars to prevent a repeat disaster and secure investor confidence.The floods began in July and have devastated large parts of the central Chao Phraya river basin, killed nearly 400 people and disrupted the lives of more than two million.Inner Bangkok, protected by a network of dikes and sandbag walls, survived peak tides on the weekend and remains mostly dry.But large volumes of water are sliding across the land to the north, east and west of the city, trying to reach the sea and being diverted by the city centre's defenses into new suburbs as they recede in others.In the northeastern city neighborhood of Sam Wa, angry residents demanded the opening of a sluice gate to let water out of their community. Residents jostled with police on

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Monday and Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra ordered that the gate be opened by a meter (three feet).But city authorities warned that the flow through the gate could move via a major canal into large parts of the city which are now dry."We are opposed to it but the government has ordered the BMA to open the gate, so more water will come," said Bangkok Metropolitan Authority (BMA) spokesman Jate Sopitpongstorn."It could reach the Bang Chan industrial estate. We have to see the consequences," he told Reuters, adding that residents of the area had been told to be on alert.Yingluck's government and the Bangkok authority represent opposing factions in Thailand's strife-plagued politics.An expert from the government flood management team played down the danger to inner Bangkok of opening the sluice gate, saying the flow was relatively small compared with the amount coming in through leaks in the city's dikes."Inner Bangkok is not so much an issue," said academic Anon Sanitiwong Na Ayutthaya. "At least we know what to do, it's just a matter of time to fix the leaks."The disaster has been the first big test for the government of Yingluck, the younger sister of former premier Thaksin Shinawatra, who was ousted in a 2006 coup.Yingluck, a political novice, took over this year after an election that many Thais hoped would heal divisions that triggered street violence last year.Saving central Bangkok from a ruinous flood would be an important victory. The city's 12 million people account for 41 percent of Thailand's gross domestic product.But prolonged misery in outlying areas and heavily flooded provinces to the north would take the gloss off any victory for Yingluck, especially given a perception that those areas have been sacrificed to save the capital.To the north of Bangkok, Pathum Thani and Ayutthaya provinces have been largely inundated for weeks, along with seven industrial estates that have sprung up over the last two decades on what used to be the central plain's rice fields. "BE PREPARED"People eked out a living in the flooded provinces on Tuesday with women cooking over gas stoves in the shade of plastic sheets strung up over pick-up trucks while men in their underwear cast fishing nets into water covering roads. Cars, trucks and taxis were bumper to bumper for about 20 km (12 miles) on an elevated road out of Bangkok, parked and abandoned safely above the murky tide. The cabinet met to work out a recovery plan that one cabinet minister said this week could cost up to $30 billion, including an overhaul of the water-management system and rehabilitation of industrial estates. Deputy Prime Minister and Commerce Minister Kittirat Na Ranong said the government would need to borrow "hundreds of billions of baht" to recover and prevent a repeat of disaster during the annual rainy season. "Any investor, ambassador, I talk to, they never ask how high the floodwaters are but what will Thailand actually do to prevent this from happening again," Kittirat told reporters. The government would invite experts from inside and outside the country to help draw up the plan and he would approach the Asian Development Bank to discuss financing. "We have to be prepared for the future," Kittirat said. "Preparation and the prevention of floods and drought is something we must start to do now." Yingluck said on Monday she had assured Japanese investors there would be no repeat of the disaster. The government expects it will take three months to get the flooded industrial estates back on their feet. Thailand is the second-largest exporter of computer hard drives and global prices are rising because of a flood-related shortage of major components used in personal computers. Thailand is also Southeast Asia's main auto-parts maker and Japan's Honda Motor Co said car production could be difficult in the second half of its business year ending in March. Its Ayutthaya plant has suspended work indefinitely. The Bank of Thailand has nearly halved its projection of economic growth this year to 2.6 percent from July's 4.1 percent estimate, and said the economy -- Southeast Asia's second largest -- would shrink by 1.9 percent in the December quarter from the previous three months due to the floods. Headline inflation rose to 4.19 percent in October from 4.03 percent the previous month as the flooding pushed up some prices but the central bank said the rises were temporary and it would focus on longer-term factors in setting policy. The floods submerged four million acres (1.6 million ha), an area roughly the size of Kuwait, and destroyed 25 percent of the main rice crop in the world's largest rice exporter. The deluge was caused in part by unusually heavy monsoon rain but the weather has been mostly clear for the past week. The BMA said 2,245 mm (more than seven feet) of rain had fallen this year to the end of October, 40.8 percent above average. ($1=30.75 baht) (Additional reporting by Ploy Ten Kate, Pracha Hariraksapitak, and Martin Petty in Ayutthaya; Editing by Sanjeev Miglani)" October 10, 2011: By Oliver Campbell More than 260 people have been killed by flooding in Thailand since mid-July, and an estimated 2.34 million people have been affected in at least 30 of the country?s 77 provinces.Now the floods, which have mainly hit the northeast, the north and the centre of Thailand, are threatening to engulf Bangkok. The city is particularly vulnerable, because many areas sit less than 2 metres above sea level. Already, pockets of the city have been submerged, with 17 locations flooded over the weekend as a result of heavy rainfall. Flood levels of 30-40 centimetres were reported at one location in the city.The National Disaster Warning Centre warned that nine canals in the capital, already near capacity levels, were likely to break their banks, while 13 districts and eastern zones outside flood barriers were likely to be flooded.High tides beginning this week could exacerbate the flooding, with fears that the Chao Phraya River, which runs through central Bangkok, will break its banks. Authorities are installing up to 400 water pumps along the river and digging canals to divert flood waters.Over the weekend, there were chaotic scenes and frantic evacuations in the ancient city of Ayutthaya, 80 kilometres upriver from Bangkok. The inner city island, where historical sites are located, was inundated after the water broke through the flood walls in many areas. Among those evacuated were some 2,000 patients from the provincial hospital.Residents and rescuers waded through waist- and chest-high water, hopping on trucks and boats, and moving to higher ground with whatever few belongings they could extricate. Journalist Simon Roughneen, reporting from Ayutthaya, wrote: ?All day, groups of people have been clambering onboard dinghies, rafts and impromptu vessels cobbled together from truck tyre tubes, styrofoam boards?anything at all that floats.?Back outside the city?s hospital, Thai Red Cross volunteer Pipath Cheangnoi says he was asked by government officials to help co-ordinate the evacuation of more than 2,000 patients trapped inside the building?an effort that was ongoing as darkness fell amid dangerous conditions with electricity down or unusable, and strong currents swirling in places around the hospital gates.?Roughneen spoke to one relieved mother whose 5-year-old daughter had just been saved by rescuers who pushed through chest-high water to reach her after she was trapped upstairs by an overnight rush of water. ?I was scared, worried. I still am, but thanks to these helpers I have my Sililak safe,? Thanarat ?Yui? Panomai said.The government has discussed possible evacuation measures for Bangkok, but with flood waters bearing down on the city of over 12 million, it is a case of too little, too late. Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra told the media: ?We are rushing to drain water and evacuate people before the

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seawater peaks. We don?t know how much rain will fall when the new storms arrive. We can?t protect every area.?The floods have also destroyed infrastructure, and paralysed economic life in parts of the country. More than 200 roads have been damaged, including the Asian highway, the main route to northern Thailand. The gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecast for this year has been scaled down from 4.4 percent to 3.6 percent as a result.Almost 200 factories, including a Honda plant and electronics and car parts facilities, were closed in Ayutthaya, after the Rojana industrial park was inundated. ?It?s a crisis there now,? Industry Minister Wannarat Charnnukul told Bloomberg.com on Saturday. ?There is nothing we can do because the water level is higher than the barriers.?There are fears that the floods, which extend across South East Asia, will further drive up food prices. The Thai farm ministry announced last week that the main rice harvest would be down 12 percent, with over 3 million tonnes possibly damaged by the floods. Thailand is the world?s biggest rice exporter, accounting for around 30 percent of exports. The floods threaten a political crisis for the Puea Thailed coalition government, which was elected in July following a populist campaign that fraudulently appealed to the aspirations of the rural and urban poor.In a nationally televised address on October 7, Prime Minister Yingluck said: ?We have to admit that this is more serious than in the past? The government is just a little more than a month old and it is difficult to cope with the situation because the volume of water is so high.? Earlier, Yingluck commented that the government was at its ?wits end? because of the flooding.Since taking office, the government has been under pressure from business circles in Thailand and internationally to drop its election promises. Business associations are using the floods to demand that the government drop its pledge to raise the minimum wage. Employer representative Atthayuth Leeyavanija, a member of Thailand?s central wage-setting committee, warned against implementing a promised pay rise, saying: ?Raising wages to 300 baht a day nationwide would have a severe impact on businesses.?Whilst the floods are a natural phenomenon, their devastating impact has been exacerbated by long-term government policies that have subordinated public safety to the profits of loggers and property developers.National Disaster Warning Centre director Captain Somsak Khaosuwan has publicly stated that the severity of the floods was a product of poor logistics and rampant deforestation. The Bangkok Post quoted him saying: ?It used to be villagers had four to five days to prepare, but nowadays flooding can hit the same day as the warning? There are no forests to absorb the water.?Somsak said natural water reservoirs that prevented flooding in the past no longer existed due to building and property development: ?The way we build our roads and urban areas, we don?t consider the natural flow of water. Often we build things directly in its path. Many villages are built right in the path of the water.? He added: ?There are people who believed that their villages would not be flooded because they have never been flooded from the days of their parents and grandparents? But things have changed.?The flood crisis has exacerbated social tensions, with the Bangkok Post reporting violent clashes between residents in wet areas, angry at those living in dry areas. There was a confrontation between farmers and villagers in Ayutthaya province last Friday, with both sides firing shots into the air.Other countries in the region have also been affected by monsoonal rain and tropical storms. More than 170 people have been killed by flooding in Cambodia since early August. Some 230,000 families have been affected by the floods, and another 23,000 evacuated.At least 15 people, including nine children, have died in flooding since late September in Vietnam?s central and southern provinces. Dozens of houses had been swept away in the Mekong Delta and 27,700 more were under water, according to the state-run VnExpress.Two weeks ago, the Philippines were struck by Nalgae and Nesat, which claimed more than 100 lives.Flooding in Henan, Sichuan and Shaanxi provinces in China late last month affected some 12.3 million people, killing 17 people, and destroying more than 120,000 houses. The flooding in Shaanxi was reported to be the worst in 50 years." October 2, 2011: "Over 200 houses in Thailand's northern Lampang's Ko Kah district were submerged under flood waters early Sunday morning after heavy rains going on generating water runoff from a nearby hill.Heavy rains starting from around 2.00 a.m. on Sunday morning continued for hours causing high-level flood waters that inundated four villages, a home to over 200 households. Residents in flood- hit areas rushed to evacuate to higher grounds, a Ko Kah chief district officer said.In a related development, the Disaster Prevention and Mitigation Department announced on Sunday that the death toll from the nationwide flooding which had begun since July 25 now stood at 206.The department said a total of 150 districts in 23 provinces in northern, central, eastern and western regions are still under flood waters, affecting more than 1.8 million people". September 13, 2011: " BANGKOK, Sept. 13 (Xinhua) -- Floods that have hit central and northern parts of Thailand for several months have left more than 600 schools submerged and 82 people killed, local media reported on Tuesday.Basic Education Commission (BEC) Secretary-General Chinapat Pumirat said floods had left 635 schools submerged and killed three students. The damage could cost more than 140 million baht (about 4.60 million U.S. dollars) in rehabilitation, the Thai National News Bureau reported.The flash floods and mudslides in northern and central provinces of Thailand caused by heavy rainstorms have hit about 14 provinces for more than three months.Among all the schools affected by floods, 583 are primary and 52 are secondary schools.Meanwhile, the latest report from the department of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation said a total of 82 people were confirmed killed by the flash floods and landslides.The latest deaths occurred in the central province of Saraburi where four people were killed by a mudslide on Monday.The monsoon also prevails over the Andaman Sea, Thailand and the Gulf of Thailand, according to the department The department estimates that about 2,300 square meters of farmland have been hit by floods." September 1, 2011: "The floodrelated death toll across the country yesterday stood at 55, according to the Disaster Prevention and Mitigation Department (DPMD). The eight provinces are Phichit, Sukhothai, Phitsanulok, Nakhon Sawan, Ayutthaya, Angthong, Chai Nat and Ubon Ratchathani.In Phichit alone, as many as 11 deaths were reported. Police found the latest victim in Phichit's Taphan Hin district at 6am yesterday. Weerapat Sukkhum, 22, apparently drowned in the floodwater. Dr Surasen Thangthong, who heads Phichit's Primary Education Service Area 1 Office, said 20 schools under his jurisdiction were closed indefinitely in the wake of severe flooding. "It's not possible for children to go to the heavily flooded schools," he said. In Phichit's Primary Education Service Area 2, 27 schools suspended classes indefinitely. According to Phichit's chief of disaster prevention and mitigation, Sanlek Kamjai, floods have affected more than 100,000 people in the province. Up to 70 per cent of the province's farmland - or about 140,000 rai - have been damaged."Floods have raged on for about three weeks already," Sanlek said. "Judging by the current situation, it will likely take at least one month for the floodwater to completely

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subside."In Phitsanulok, floods have damaged 321,001 rai of farmland and affected 77,242 people. Three deaths have been reported, and the Public Health Ministry has found that up to 29 flood victims in Phitsanulok had become suicidal. DPMD deputy director-general Chatpong Chatphut said flooding had likely ravaged more than 3.37 million rai of farmland."Up to 394,327 people are now flood victims," he said.The House of Representatives yesterday voted to set up an ad-hoc committee on flood prevention and solutions. The committee was tasked with studying how to prevent flooding and drought.It was expected to complete the study within 60 days. As run-off water from upriver provinces is now flowing down the Chao Phraya River, downstream provinces such as Angthong and Pathum Thani have started feeling the effects. In Anthong, some corners in Mueang and Pa Moke districts were inundated. In Pathum Thani's Sam Khok district, the Bang Toei Market was under 20cm of water yesterday. Deputy Interior Minister Choochart Harnsawas yesterday held a meeting with Pathum Thani MPs and provincial Governor Pirasak Hinmuangkao to draw up flood-prevention plans.The Royal Irrigation Department, meanwhile, said people living on the banks of the Chao Phraya River below the Chao Phraya Dam should start building embankments made of sandbags." August 28, 2011: "Bangkok - Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra visited flooded areas of northern Thailand Sunday, and said the governmeng was also monitoring conditions for Thais living in the path of a hurricane hitting the eastern United States. Yingluck, who took office August 5, led a disaster-assessment team to the Bang Rakam and Phrom Phiram districts in the northern province of Phitsanulok. She was accompanied by Public Health Minister Witthaya Buranasiri, who said free medical services were being provided by more than 300 mobile teams of doctors. He said more than 50,000 people had been affected by water-borne diseases due to the floods. About 50 deaths have been attributed to the monsoon flooding in Phitsanulok and 15 other provinces declared flood disaster zones. Train service has been disrupted since Saturday in northern Thailand due to the flooding. The prime minister was scheduled to visit flood-affected regions of Udon Thani province later on Sunday. The Meteorology Department warned that heavy rains were likely to continue Monday, with flash floods expected in mountainous areas."August 22, 2011: "BANGKOK (AlertNet) ? Floods have killed 37 people in north and north-eastern Thailand, and some 1.5 million people are affected by the disaster, the Bangkok Post reported officials as saying.Thirteen provinces remain under water after tropical storm Nock Ten hit the region on July 25. The Disaster Prevention and Mitigation Department said the situation remained critical in seven provinces, according to the Post.Water has also flowed to downstream provinces in the Central Plains, inundating wide areas in four other places where water levels continued to rise, the Post said.The Nation said at least 16 provinces remain flooded.The floods followed days of heavy seasonal rain, causing rivers to burst their banks."August 9, 2011: "The Disaster Prevention and Mitigation Department (DPMD) yesterday said flooding triggered by Tropical Storm NockTen, which has killed 20 people and left one person missing, is continuing to ravage 51 districts in Phrae, Sukhothai, Uttaradit, Phichit, Phitsanulok, Tak, Nakhon Sawan and Ayutthaya provinces, while affecting some 221,000 people.DPMD chief Wibul Sanguanpong reported that Tropical Storm NockTen had caused floods in 6,809 villages, located in 155 districts in 21 provinces, affecting 1,139,990 people and damaging 619,723 rai of farmlands. He added that the department has instructed provincial offices and agencies to urgently provide food, water and other aid to flood victims, and to deliver machines, flat boats, and drinking water to the region. Officials will also be dispatched to assess damage and provide assistance, in keeping with the Finance Ministry's regulations.In Uttaradit's Pichai district, the overflowing Yom River damaged some 40,000 rai of rice fields that were nearing harvest in tambon Tha Mafeuang. About 70 homes were submerged under two metres of water in Ban Thung Sanguan. The tambon has reportedly never flooded before, and the recent flooding was said to have been caused by the diversion of 2,500 cubic metres per second of water from Yom River to Nan River through Khlong Nam Lai to alleviate flooding in Phrae and Sukhothai. Uttaradit Governor Yothin Samutkhiri initially sent officials and 100 relief bags to aid the victims. The damage to Pichai district's farmland has been estimated at Bt22 million. A 59yearold farmer, On Yaemsuan, tearfully said her 35 rai of rice fields were completely damaged, while she had a September deadline to repay a Bt200,000 loan to grow rice from the Bank for Agriculture and Agricultural Cooperatives. She lamented that while she had invested Bt6,800 per rai, the government would only be offering compensation of Bt606 per rai for damage from the floods. She urged new Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra and the four Pheu Thai MPs from Uttaradit to help the farmers.In Amnat Charoen, the previous night of heavy rainfall and runoffs from Nakhon Phanom and Mukdahan caused the Mekong River to rise yesterday, prompting provincial governor Kaenpetch Chuangrangsi to alert Chanuman district officials to measure river levels and prepare for possible floods."

Global Flood Detection System

Current surface water and potential flooded areas (GFDS) map
The Global Flood Detection System uses passive microwave remote sensing to observe surface water for large floods. Statistical anomalies in surface water are shown as red areas, which correspond roughly to the flooded area. Extreme rainfall also causes anomalies, but is masked by the yellow layer (TRMM rainfall). Legend

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Accumulated rain 24hrs (TRMM) map

Flash floods and landslides cannot be recorded by microwave remote sensing. These events are caused by extreme rainfall in susceptible mountainous areas. The map below shows the extreme rainfall recorded by the Tropical Rainfall Monitoring mission in the last 24h (mm/24h). More information.

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Population density map

Disclaimer

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While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information. The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website. Information related to the flood has been collected from official and media reports by the Dartmouth Flood Observatory. The impact analysis is performed by the Joint Research Center of the European Commission.

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Contact us -- Disclaimer Financially Information on this website is supported for collected from scientific and media sources in participation with 2008-2009 by European Commission Joint EC MIC
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