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Peak Performance
Cognition
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Today’s Gameplan
1 Mastering First Principles Thinking

2 Second Order Thinking

3 Cognitive Bias Defense

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Today’s Gameplan
1 Mastering First Principles Thinking

2 Second Order Thinking

3 Cognitive Bias Defense

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Accurate Flow Is The Aim Of The Game

ACTIVITIES LEADING TO
GOALS & WELLBEING Wellbeing
& Goals

ACCURATE

THE FLOW RESEARCH COLLECTIVE © 2020

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White Swans and The Two Types Of Reasoning

Deduction Induction

Daisy is All swans

white are white

Therefore Therefore

All swans
are white

Daisy is Daisy is a Danny is a Dante is a

a swan swan & white swan & white swan & white

Deductive reasoning helps you identify a Inductive reasoning integrates existing

hypothesis surroundings evidence to assess your hypothesis

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First Principles Thinking In Action

Reasoning by Reasoning by

Analogy First Principles

Common
Others Belief
Actions If A is true and B is
true, then C is true

Previous
Example

If C is true,
Reasoning then D is true

Reasoning by Analogy is when you solve an argument by relating Reasoning by First Principles is when you boil down an
it to a common saying, belief, trend. The way it’s being done now argument to its most fundamental truths and then build up
or has been done before or an example. from there using deductive logic.

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First Principles Thinking Versus Reasoning By Analogy

Reasoning by Reasoning by

Analogy First Principles

Infers from existing, Builds upward from

observable phenomena. original hypothesis.

Inductive, derivative Deductive, original and

and consensus. non-consensus.

“Most healthy people I know “Research shows meal timing has no

eat three meals a day.” correspondence to health outcomes.”

I must eat three meals a day I can eat one meal a day
to be healthy. and be healthy.

Fast and energy efficient. Yields breakthrough, novel ideas.

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Consensus Doesn’t Indicate Truth

POPULAR OPINION
+extreme

Perceived as
“opposite”,
“contrarian”
Pragmatic Time
Perceived as
“opposite”,
“contrarian”

-extreme
POPULAR OPINION

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First Principles Thinking

Molecule Atom Nucleus Proton Quark

Reducing problems down to their most fundamental components.

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Becoming An Original First Principles Thinker

Original
Beliefs
Impresses upon
the world.

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Tools To Become A First Principles Thinker

Practice Naivete Question Assumptions

Question everything, all the time. Abstract away assumptions until
E.g., Why do dogs live on land? clarity is reached. Rebuild from a
clear premise.

Generate Awe Separate Problem From Solution

The “watchtower effect,” from an awe When thinking, keep these separate.
experience can improve perspective and Solutions have consensus inbuilt.
critical thinking. Focus on the problem and create
space for an original solution.

The Five Whys Socratic Questioning

Ask why, repeatedly until you hit a Why do I think this? What exactly do I
first principle or roadblock. think? How do I know this is true?
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Today’s Gameplan
1 Mastering First Principles Thinking

2 Second Order Thinking

3 Cognitive Bias Defence

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This Is Second Order Thinking

First-Order Thinking Second-Order Thinking

Analyzing consequences to first Looking beyond first order effects to

order effects of decisions. understand the consequences of
complex dynamics.

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Second Order Thinking Requires Rapid Forecasting

Consequences

1ST ORDER 2ND ORDER 3RD ORDER 4TH ORDER 5TH ORDER

Most People don’t

think 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th
order consequences
Any decision has An immediate and suffer from bad
consequences 1st order result outcomes
is obvious

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Second Order Thinking Requires Acute Awareness Of

Interrelationships

Connections

B
C D
A

G
Nodes
E

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It Will Help You See What Others Are Blind To

Disconnection Interconnectedness

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First Order Positive = Second Order Negative

Consequences

1ST ORDER 2ND ORDER 3RD ORDER

Good
B
Bad

Image credit: Farnham Street

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How Do You Deploy Second Order Thinking?

1 Build the reflexive habit of asking yourself; “And then what?”

whenever making decisions, (but don’t let it paralyze you, it
should accelerate your decision making by boosting certainty).

Scope out causality chains by hand to make the

3
second order consequence evident.
Shouting At Employee > Immediate Job Gets Done >
Map The 2nd, 3rd, 4th order effects 2 Disengagement > Quitting > Increased Competition
through time; ask yourself: “What do the
consequences look like in 10 minutes?
10 months? 10 Years?”

Be aware; always that your decisions 4

and actions take place as part of an
interconnected web of downstream
consequences.

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Today’s Gameplan
1 Mastering First Principles Thinking

2 Second Order Thinking

3 Cognitive Bias Defense

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What Are
Cognitive Biases?
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What Are Cognitive Biases?

As a social psychologist, Jonathan Haidt once wrote,

The reasoning process is more like a lawyer

defending a client than a judge or scientist
seeking the truth.

Better thinking leads to better decision.

All of these contrast the ability to think critically.

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What Are Cognitive Biases?

1 Confirmation Bias and

Motivated Reasoning

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What Are Cognitive Biases?

2 Dunning-Kruger
Effect

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What Are Cognitive Biases?

3 Sunk Cost
Fallacy

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What Are Cognitive Biases?

4 Loss
Aversion

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What Are Cognitive Biases?

5 Availability
Bias

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What Are Cognitive Biases?

6 The Backfire
Effect

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What Are Cognitive Biases?

7 Fundamental
Attribution Error

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What Are Cognitive Biases?

8 Halo
Effect

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What Are Cognitive Biases?

9 Anchoring
Bias

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What Are Cognitive Biases?

10 Self-Serving
Bias

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1 Practice Naivete — Question everything, all the time. The Five Whys
— Ask why, repeatedly until you hit a first principle or roadblock. E.g.
Why do dogs live on land?

2 Generate Awe — The “watchtower effect,” from an awe experience

can improve perspective and critical thinking.
Exercise:
Critical Thinking 3
Question Assumptions — Abstract away assumptions until clarity is
reached. Rebuild from a clear premise.

Training
Separate Problem From Solution — When thinking, keep these
4
separate. Solutions have consensus inbuilt. Focus on the problem
and create space for an original solution.

Socratic Questioning — Why do I think this? What exactly do I

5
think? How do I know this is true?

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