Chapter 6

6.1 a Relative frequency approach

b If the conditions today repeat themselves an infinite number of days rain will fall on 10% of the next days.

6.2 a Subjective approach

b If all the teams in major league baseball have exactly the same players the New York Yankees will win 25% of all
World Series.

6.3 a {a is correct, b is correct, c is correct, d is correct, e is correct}

b P(a is correct) = P(b is correct) = P(c is correct) = P(d is correct) = P(e is correct) = .2
c Classical approach
d In the long run all answers are equally likely to be correct.

6.4 a Subjective approach

b The Dow Jones Industrial Index will increase on 60% of the days if economic conditions remain unchanged.

6.5 a P(even number) = P(2) + P(4) + P(6) = 1/6 + 1/6 + 1/6 = 3/6 = 1/2
b P(number less than or equal to 4) = P(1) + P(2) + P(3) + P(4) = 1/6 + 1/6 + 1/6 +1/6 = 4/6 = 2/3
c P(number greater than or equal to 5) = P(5) + P(6) = 1/6 + 1/6 = 2/6 = 1/3

6.6 {Adams wins. Brown wins, Collins wins, Dalton wins}

6.7a P(Adams loses) = P(Brown wins) + P(Collins wins) + P(Dalton wins) = .09 + .27 + .22 = .58
b P(either Brown or Dalton wins) = P(Brown wins) + P(Dalton wins) = .09 + .22 = .31
c P(either Adams, Brown, or Collins wins) = P(Adams wins) + P(Brown wins) + P(Collins wins)
= .42 + .09 + .27 = .78

6.8 a {0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5}
b {4, 5}
c P(5) = .10
d P(2, 3, or 4) = P(2) + P(3) + P(4) = .26 + .21 + .18 = .65
e P(6) = 0

6.9 {Contractor 1 wins, Contractor 2 wins, Contractor 3 wins}

6.10 P(Contractor 1 wins) = 2/6, P(Contractor 2 wins) = 3/6, P(Contractor 3 wins) = 1/6
6.11 a {Shopper pays cash, shopper pays by credit card, shopper pays by debit card}
b P(Shopper pays cash) = .30, P(Shopper pays by credit card) = .60, P(Shopper pays by debit card) = .10
c Relative frequency approach

6.12 a P(shopper does not use credit card) = P(shopper pays cash) + P(shopper pays by debit card)
= .30 + .10 = .40
b P(shopper pays cash or uses a credit card) = P(shopper pays cash) + P(shopper pays by credit card)
= .30 + .60 = .90

6.13 {single, divorced, widowed}

6.14 a P(single) = .15, P(married) = .50, P(divorced) = .25, P(widowed) = .10

b Relative frequency approach

6.15 a P(single) = .15

b P(adult is not divorced) = P(single) + P(married) + P(widowed) = .15+ .50 + .10 = .75
c P(adult is either widowed or divorced) = P(divorced) + P(widowed) = .25 + .10 = .35

6.16 {Spanish, Chinese, Tagalog, Vietnamese, French, Korean, others}

6.17 a .619
b .381
c .0435
d .245

6.18 {Very safe, Somewhat safe, Somewhat unsafe, Very unsafe, Not sure}

6.19a .17
b .45
c .12

6.20 P( A1 ) = .1 + .2 = .3, P( A 2 ) = .3 + .1 = .4, P( A 3 ) = .2 + .1 = .3.

P( B1 ) = .1 + .3 + .2 = .6, P( B 2 ) = .2 + .1 + .1 = .4.

6.21 P( A1 ) = .4 + .2 = .6, P( A 2 ) = .3 + .1 = .4. P( B1 ) = .4 + .3 = .7, P( B 2 ) = .2 + .1 = .3.

 P(A 1 and B1 ) .4
6.22 a P ( A 1 | B1 ) = = = .57
P ( B1 ) .7

P(A 2 and B1 ) .3
b P ( A 2 | B1 ) = = = .43
P ( B1 ) .7

c Yes. It is not a coincidence. Given B1 the events A1 and A 2 constitute the entire sample space.

P( A 1 and B 2 ) .2
6.23 a P( A 1 | B 2 ) = = = .67
P( B 2 ) .3

P(A1 and B2 ) .2
b P( B 2 | A1 ) = = = .33
P(A1 ) .6
c One of the conditional probabilities would be greater than 1, which is not possible.

6.24 The events are not independent because P(A 1 | B 2 ) ≠ P(A 1 ) .

6.25 a P( A1 or B1 ) = P (A 1 ) + P(B1 ) − P(A 1 and B1 ) = .6 + .7 - .4 = .9

b P( A1 or B 2 ) = P (A 1 ) + P(B 2 ) − P(A 1 and B 2 ) = .6 + .3 - .2 = .7

c P( A1 or A 2 ) = P(A 1 ) + P(A 2 ) = .6 + .4 = 1

P(A 1 and B1 ) .20

6.26 P(A 1 | B1 ) = = = .25 ; P (A 1 ) = .20 + .05 = .25 ; the events are independent.
P ( B1 ) .20 + .60

P(A 1 and B1 ) .20

6.27 P(A 1 | B1 ) = = = .571 ; P (A 1 ) = .20 + .60 = .80 ; the events are dependent.
P(B1 ) .20 + .15

6.28 P( A1 ) = .15 + .25 = .40, P( A 2 ) = .20 + .25 = .45, P( A 3 ) = .10 + .05 = .15.

P( B1 ) = .15 + 20 + .10 = .45, P( B 2 ) = .25 + .25 + .05 = .55.

P( A 2 and B 2 ) .25
6.29 a P( A 2 | B 2 ) = = = .455
P(B 2 ) .55

P( A 2 and B 2 ) .25
b P( B 2 | A 2 ) = = = .556
P(A 2 ) .45

P(A 2 and B1 ) .20

c P( B1 | A 2 ) = = = .444
P( A 2 ) .45

6.30 a P( A1 or A 2 ) = P( A1 ) + P( A 2 ) = .40 + .45 = .85

b P( A 2 or B 2 ) = P( A 2 ) + P( B 2 ) – P( A 2 and B 2 ) = .45 + .55 - .25 = .75

c P( A 3 or B1 ) =P( A 3 ) + P( B1 ) – P( A 3 and B1 ) = .15 + .45 - .10 = .50

P(promoted and female) .03

6.31 a P(promoted | female) = = = .20
P(female) .03 + .12

P(promoted and male) .17

b P(promoted | male) = = = .20
P(male) .17 + .68

c No, because promotion and gender are independent events.

6.32 a P(debit card) = .04 + .18 + .14 = .36

P(credit card and over $100 .23
b P(over $100 | credit card) = = = .49
P(credit card) .03 + .21 + .23

c P(credit card or debit card) = P(credit card) + P(debit card) = .47 + .36 = .83

6.33 a P(Less than high school) = .057 + .104 = .161

P(college / university and female ) .095
b P(college/university | female) = = = .226
P(female ) .057 + .136 + .132 + .095

P( high school and male) .224

c P(high school | male) = = = .622
P( male ) .136 + .224

6.34 a P(He is a smoker) = .12 + .19 = .31

b P(He does not have lung disease) = .19 + .66 = .85
P(he has lung disease and he is a smo ker) .12
c P(He has lung disease | he is a smoker) = = = .387
P(he is a smo ker) .31

P(he has lung disease and he does not smoke ) .03

d P(He has lung disease | he does not smoke) = = = .043
P(he does not smoke) .69

6.35 The events are dependent because P(he has lung disease) = .15, P(he has lung disease | he is a smoker) = .387

P(manual and math − stats) .23

6.36a. P(manual | math-stats) = = = .390
P(math − stats) .23 + .36

b. P(computer) = .36 + .30 = .66

c. No, because P(manual) = .23 + .11 = .34, which is not equal to P(manual | math-stats).

6.37 a P(customer will return and good rating) =.35

P(good rating and will return ) .35 .35
b P(good rating | will return) = = = = .538
P( will return) .02 + .08 + .35 + .20 .65
 P(good rating and will return) .35 .35
c P(will return| good rating) = = = .714
P(good rating ) .35 + .14 .49

d (a) is the joint probability and (b) and (c) are conditional probabilities

6.38 a P(ulcer) = .01 + .03 + .03 + .04 = .11

P(ulcer and none) .01 .01
b P(ulcer | none) = = = = .043
P(none) .01 + .22 .23

P(ulcer and none) .01 .01

c P(none | ulcer) = = = = .091
P (ulcer) .01 + .03 + .03 + .04 .11

P (ulcer and none)

d P(One, two, or more than two | ulcer) = 1 − = 1 − .091 = .909
P(ulcer )

P(Insufficient work and 25 − 54) .180

6.39 a P(Insufficient work | 25-54) = = = .252
P(25 − 54) .320 + .180 + .214

b P(65 and over) = .029 + .011 + .016 = .056

c P(65 and over |plant or company closed or moved) =
P(65 and over and plant or company closed or moved) .029
= = .064
P(plant or company closed or moved) .015 + .320 + ..089 + .029

6.40 a P(remember) = .15 + .18 = .33

P(remember and violent ) .15 .15
b P(remember | violent) = = = = .30
P( violent ) .15 + .35 .50

c Yes, the events are dependent.

P(above average and murderer) .27 .27

6.41 a P(above average | murderer) = = = = .563
P(murderer) .27 + .21 .48

b No, because P(above average) = .27 + .24 = .51, which is not equal to P(above average testosterone | murderer).

6.42a P(Health insurance) = .167 +.209 +.225 +.177 = .778

P(Person 55 − 64 and No health insurance) .026 .026
b. P(Person 55-64 | No health insurance) = = = = .128
P(Person 55 − 64) .177 + .026 .203

c. P(Person 25-34|No health insurance) =

P(Person 25 − 34 and No health insurance) .085 .085
= = = .385
P( No health insurance) .085 + .061 + .049 + .026 .221

P(Violent crime and primary school) .393 .393

6.43a = = = .673
P(Pr imary school) .393 + .191 .584
b. P(No violent crime) = .191 + .010 + .007 + .015 = .223

P(Violent crime and enrollment less than 300) .159 .159

6.44a = = = .636
P(Enrollment less than 300) .159 + .091 .250

P(Violent crime and enrollment less than 300) .159 .159

b. = = = .205
P(Violent crime) .159 + .221 + .289 + .108 .777

P(new and overdue) .06 .06

6.45 a P(new | overdue) = = = = .103
P(overdue) .06 + .52 .58

P(new and overdue) .06 .06

b P(overdue | new) = = = = .316
P(new ) .06 + .13 .19

c Yes, because P(new) = .19 ≠ P(new | overdue)

6.46 a P(under 20) = .464 + .147 + .237 = .848

b P(retail) = .237 + .035 + .005 = .277
P(20 to 99 and construction ) .039 .039
c P(20 to 99 | construction) = = = = .077
P(construction ) .464 + .039 + .005 .508

6.47 a P(fully repaid) = .19 + .64 = .83

P(fully repaid and under 400) .19 .19
b P(fully repaid | under 400) = = = = .594
P(under 400) .19 + .13 .32

P(fully repaid and 400 or more) .64 .64

c P(fully repaid | 400 or more) = = = = .941
P(400 or more) .64 + .04 .68

d No, because P(fully repaid) ≠ P(fully repaid | under 400)

P(purchase and see ad) .18 .18

6.48 P(purchase | see ad) = = = = .30; P(purchase) = .18 + .12 = .30. The
P(see ad) .18 + .42 .60

events are independent and thus, the ads are not effective.

6.49 a P(unemployed | high school graduate) =

P( unemployed and high school graduate ) .035 .035
= = = .120
P( high school graduate ) .257 + .035 .292

b P(employed) = .075 + .2572 + .155 + .096 + .211 + .118 = .912

c P(advanced degree | unemployed) =
P (advanced deg ree and unemployed ) .004 .004
= = = .044
P ( unemployed ) .015 + .035 + .016 + .008 + .012 + .004 .090
d P(not a high school graduate) = .075 + .015 = .090

6.50 a P(bachelor’s degree | west)

P ( bachelor ' s deg ree and west ) .050 .050
= = = = .216
P ( west ) .032 + .058 + .044 + .022 + .050 + .025 .231

b P(northeast | high school graduate)

P( northeast and high school graduate ) .062 .062
= = = = .198
P( high school graduate ) .062 + .075 + .118 + .058 .313

c P(south) = .053 + .118 + .062 + .032 + .067 + .036 = .368

d P(not south) = 1 – P(south) = 1−.368 = .632

6.51a. P(Some | White) = .356/.851 = .418

b. P(Very little or no | Black) = .06/.149 = .403
c. P(White | Some) = .356/.404 = .881

6.52a. P(Arthritis | Over 80) = .105/.140 = .750

b. P(No arthritis | 50-60) = .360/.400 = .900
c. P(60-70 | Arthritis) = .075/.292) = .257

6.53a. P(New Democrats | Men) = .044/.490 = .0898

b. P(Women | Liberal) = .224/.415 = .540
c. P(Conservative) = .255 + .215 = .470

6.54a. P(Married | Millennial) = .089/.331) = .269

b. P(Single, never married | Baby boomer) = .030/.310 = .0968
c. P(Married) = .089 + .223 + .201 = .513
d. P(Generation X | Living with not married) = .025/.064 =.391

6.55a. P(Trust) = .0896 + .1386 + .1944 + .0629 + .0144 = .4999

b. P(Distrust | Consistent conservative) = .0558/.0900 = .6200
c. P(Neither | Consistent liberal) = .0576/.1600 = .3600
d. P(Consistent liberal) = .0896 + .0096 + .0576 + .0032 = .1600

6.56a. P(Distrust | Mostly conservative) = .0680/.1700 = .4000

b. P(Neither | Mixed) = .1120/.3600 = .3111
c. P(Trust) = .0832 + .1056 + .1400 + .0442 + .0063 = .3797
d. P(Mostly conservative) = .0442 + .0680 + .0442 + .0136 = .1700
6.57a. P(Distrust | Consistent liberal) = .1296/.1600 = .8100
b. P(Trust | Mostly conservative) = .1224/.1700 = .7200
c. P(Neither | Consistent conservative) = .0045/.0900 = .0500
d. P(Consistent conservative) = .0792 + .0027 + .0045 + .0036 = .0900

6.58a. P(Distrust) = .0192 + .0242 + .0504 + .0561 + .0549 = .2048

b. P(Trust | Consistent conservative) = .0126/.0900 = .1400
c. P(Neither | Mostly liberal) = .0396/.2200 = .1800
d. P(Mixed) = .2196 + .0504 + .0612 + .0288 = .3600

6.59

6.60
6.61

6.62

6.63
6.64

a P(R and R) = .81

b P(L and L) = .01
c P(R and L) + P(L and R) = .09 + .09 = .18
d P(Rand L) + P(L and R) + P(R and R) = .09 + .09 + .81 = .99

6.65 a & b

c 0 right-handers 1
1 right-hander 3
2 right-handers 3
3 right-handers 1
d P(0 right-handers) = .001
P(1 right-hander) = 3(.009) = .027
P(2 right-handers) = 3(.081) = .243
P(3 right-handers) = .729

6.66a

b P(RR) = .8091
c P(LL) = .0091
d P(RL) + P(LR) = .0909 + .0909 = .1818
e P(RL) + P(LR) + P(RR) = .0909 + .0909 + .8091 = .9909

6.67a
P(0 right-handers) = (10/100)(9/99)(8/98) = .0007
P(1 right-hander) = 3(90/100)(10/99)(9/98) = .0249
P)2 right-handers) = 3(90/100)(89/99)(10/98) = .2478
P(3 right-handers) = (90/100)(89/99)(88/98) = .7265

6.68

a P(win both) = .28

b P(lose both) = .30
c P(win only one) = .12 + .30 = .42

6.69

P(sale) = .04
6.70

P(D) = .02 + .018 = .038

6.71

P(Same party affiliation) = P(DD) + P(RR) + P(OO) = .1936 + .1369 + .0361.3666

6.72

Diversity index = .12 + .04 + .12 + .0075 + .04 + .0075 = .335

6.73

P(heart attack) = .0504 + .0792 = .1296

6.74

P(pass) = .228 + .243 + .227 = .698

6.75

P(good ) = .3132 + .0416 = .3548

6.76

P(myopic) = .1008 + .1512 = .2520

6.77

P(does not have to be discarded) = .1848 + .78 = .9648

6.78 Let A = mutual fund outperforms the market in the first year
B = mutual outperforms the market in the second year
P(A and B) = P(A)P(B | A) = (.15)(.22) = .033

6.79 Let A = DJIA increase and B = NASDAQ increase

P(A) = .60 and P(B | A) = .77
P(A and B) = P(A)P(B | A) = (.60)(.77) = .462

6.80 Define the events:

M: The main control will fail.
B1: The first backup will fail.
B2: The second backup will fail
The probability that the plane will crash is
P(M and B1 and B2) = [P(M)][ P(B1)][ P(B2)]
= (.0001) (.01) (.01)
= .00000001
We have assumed that the 3 systems will fail independently of one another.

6.81 P( wireless Web user uses it primarily for e-mail) = .69

P(3 wireless Web users use it primarily for e-mail) = (.69)(.69)(.69) = .3285

6.82

P(Increase) = .05 + .5625 = .6125

6.83 Number saying leaving is a bad thing = 630(.62) + 590(.74) + 480(.57) = 1100.8
P(bad thing) = 1100.8/(630 + 590 + 480) = .6475

6.84 Number disapproving = 385(.94) + 420(.70) + 475(.66) = 820.5

P(Disapprove) = 820.5/(385 + 420 + 475) = .6408

6.85 P(Student debt) = (.32)(.45) + (.15)(.39) + (.53)(.27) = .3456

6.86 P(pass) = (.38)(.79) + (.41)(.74) + (.13)(.68) + (.08)(.57) = .7376

6.87 P(A and B) = .36, P(B) = .36 + .07 = .43

P(A and B) .36
P(A | B) = = = .837
P(B) .43

6.88 P(A and B) = .32, P(AC and B) = .14, P(B) = .46, P(BC) = .54
 P(A and B) .32
a P(A | B) = = = .696
P(B) .46

P( A C and B) .14
b P(AC | B) = = = .304
P ( B) .46

P(A and B C ) .48

c P(A and BC) = .48; P(A | BC ) = C
= = .889
P(B ) .54

P(A C and B C ) .06

d P(AC and BC) = .06; P(AC | BC) = = = .111
P(B C ) .54

6.89

P(B) = .4940 + .0115 = .5055

P(A and B) .4940
P(A | B) = = = .9773
P(B) .5055

P(F and D) .020

6.90 P(F | D) = = = .526
P( D) .038

6.91 Define events: A = crash with fatality, B = BAC is greater than .09)
P(A) = .01, P(B | A) = .084, P(B) = .12
P(A and B) = (.01)(.084) = .00084
P(A and B) .00084
P(A | B) = = = .007
P(B) .12
 P(CFA I and passed) .228
6.92 P(CFA I | passed) = = = .327
P(passed) .698

6.93 Define events: A = heart attack, B = periodontal disease

P(A) = .10, P(B | A) = .85, P(B | AC ) = .29

P(B ) = .085 + .261 = .346

P(A and B) .085
P(A | B) = = = .246
P(B) .346

6.94 P(A) = .40, P(B | A) = .85, P(B | AC ) = .29

P(B ) = .34 + .174 = .514

P(A and B) .34
P(A | B) = = = .661
P(B) .514

6.95 Define events: A = smoke, B1 = did not finish high school, B 2 = high school graduate, B3 = some college, no

degree, B 4 = completed a degree

P(A | B1 ) = .40, P(A | B 2 ) = .34, P(A | B3 ) = .24, P(A | B 4 ) = .14

From Exercise 6.45: P( B1 ) = .1055, P( B 2 ) = .3236, P( B3 ) = .1847, P( B 4 ) = .3862

P(A) = .0422 + .1100 + .0443 + .0541 = .2506

P( B 4 | A) = .0541/.2506 = .2159

6.96 Define events: A, B, C = airlines A, B, and C, D = on time

P(A) = .50, P(B) = .30, P(C) = .20, P(D | A) = .80, P(D | B) = .65, P(D | C) = .40

P(D) = .40 + .195 + .08 = .675

 P(A and D) .40
P(A | D) = = = .593
P ( D) .675

6.97 Define events: A = win series, B = win first game

P(A) = .60, P(B | A) = .70, P(B | AC ) =.25

P(BC ) = .18 + .30 = .48

P(A and B C ) .18

P(A | BC ) = C
= = .375
P(B ) .48

6.98

P(PT) = .28 + .052 = .332

P(R and PT) .28
P(R | PT) = = = .843
P(PT ) .332
6.99

P(PT) = .0046 + .0269 = .0315

P(H and PT) .0046
P(H | PT) = = = .1460
P(PT) .0315

6.100 Sensitivity = P(PT | H) = .920

Specificity = P(NT | H C ) = .973
Positive predictive value = P(H | PT) = .1460

P(H C and NT ) .9681 .9681

Negative predictive value = P H C | NT) = = = = .9996
P( NT ) .0004 + .9681 .9685

6.101
P(PT) = .0164 + .6233 = .6397
P(NT) = .0036 + .3567 = .3603
P(C and PT) .0164
P(C | PT) = = = .0256
P(PT ) .6397

P(C and NT) .0036

P(C | NT) = = = .0010
P( NT) .3603

P ( Light and Myopic) .1008

6.102 P(Light| Myopic) = = = .4000
P ( Myopic) .2520

6.103 P(Italy | Bad thing) = Number of Italy and Bad thing / Number of bad thing) = 273.6/1100.8 = .2485

6.104 P(Greece | Disapprove) = Number of Greece and Disapprove / Number Disapprove) = 238.7/820.25 = .2910

6.105 P(Managerial/Professional | Student debt) = P(Managerial/Professional and Student debt) / P(Student Debt) =
.1440/.3456 = .4167

6.106 P(BBA | Pass) = P(BBA and Pass) / P(Pass) = .3034/.7376 = .4113

6.107a P(Good Day) = Number of Good Day / Number of Respondents = (525(.30) + 650(.17) + 390(.41)) / 1565 =
.2734
b P(United States | Typical Day) = Number of United States and Typical Day) / Number Typical Day =
191.1/1042.1 = .1834

6.108 a P(Marketing A) = .053 + .237 = .290

P(Marketing A and Statistics not A) .23 .237
b P(Marketing A | Statistics not A) = = = = .290
P(Statistics not A ) .237 + .580 .817

c Yes, the probabilities in Parts a and b are the same.

6.109 Define events: A = win contract A and B = win contract B

a P(A and B) = .12
b P(A and BC) + P(AC and B ) = .18 + .14 = .32
c P(A and B) + P(A and BC ) + P(AC and B ) = .12 + .18 + .14 = .44

6.110 a P(second) = .05 + .14 = .19

P(successful and − 8 or less) .15 .15
b P(successful | –8 or less) = = = = .517
P(−8 or less) .15 + .14 .29

c No, because P(successful) = .66 + .15 = .81, which is not equal to P(successful | –8 or less) .

6.111 Define events: A = woman, B = drug is effective

P(B) = .528 + .221 = .749

P( A C and B) .221
6.112 P(AC | B) = = = .295
P (B) .749

6.113 P(Idle roughly)

= P(at least one spark plug malfunctions) = 1– P(all function) = 1 – (.90 4 ) = 1-.6561 = .3439
6.114

P(no sale) = .65 + .175 = .825

6.115 a P(pass) = .86 + .03 = .89

P(pass and miss 5 or more classes) .03 .03
b P(pass | miss 5 or more classes) = = = = .250
P(miss 5 or more classes) .09 + .03 .12

P(pass and miss less than 5 classes) .86 .86

c P(pass | miss less than 5 classes) = = = = .977 .
P(miss less than 5 classes) .86 + .02 .88

d No since P(pass) ≠ P(pass | miss 5 or more classes)

6.116 Define events: R = reoffend, D = detained

a P(D) = P(R and D) + P(R C and D) = .1107 + .2263 = .3370

P(R and D) .1107
P(R| D) = = = .3285
P ( D) .3370

b P(D C ) = P(R and D C ) + P(R C and D C ) = .1593 + .5037 = .6630

P(R and D C ) .1593

P(R| D C ) = = = .2403
P( D C ) .6630
6.117 a P(excellent) = .27 + .22 = .49
P(man and excellent ) .22 .22
b P(excellent | man) = = = = .44
P(man ) .22 + .10 + .12 + .06 .50

P(man and excellent) .22 .22

c P(man | excellent) = = = = .449
P(excellent) .27 + .22 .49

d No, since P(excellent) ≠ P(excellent | man)

6.118

P(R) = .0176 + .5888 = .6064

P(S and R ) .5888
P(S | R) = = = .9710
P(R ) .6064

6.119 Define events: A1 = Low-income earner, A 2 = medium-income earner, A 3 = high-income earner, B = die of a
heart attack, BC survive a heart attack
P(BC ) = .1848 + .4459 + .2790 = .9097

P(A 1 and B C ) .1848

P( A1 | BC ) = C
= = .2031
P(B ) .9097

6.120 Define the events: A1 = envelope containing two Maui brochures is selected, A 2 = envelope containing two

Oahu brochures is selected, A 3 = envelope containing one Maui and one Oahu brochures is selected. B = a Maui
brochure is removed from the selected envelope.

P(B) = 1/3 + 0 + 1/6 = 1/2

P(A 1 and B) 1 / 3
P( A1 | B) = = = 2/3
P(B) 1/ 2
6.121 Define events: A = purchase extended warranty, B = regular price
P(A and B) .21 .21
a P(A | B) = = = = .2692
P(B) .21 + .57 .78

b P(A) = .21 + .14 = .35

c No, because P(A) ≠ P(A | B)

6.122 Define events: A = company fail, B = predict bankruptcy

P(B) = .068 + .2392 = .3072

P(A and B) .068
P(A | B) = = = .2214
P(B) .3072

6.123 Define events: A = job security is an important issue, B = pension benefits is an important issue
P(A) = .74, P(B) = .65, P(A | B) = .60
a P(A and B) = P(B)P(A | B) = (.65)(.60) = .39
b P(A or B) = .74 + .65 – .39 = 1

6.124 Probabilities of outcomes: P(HH) = .25, P(HT) = .25, P(TH) = .25, P(TT) = .25
P(TT | HH is not possible) = .25/(.25 + .25 + .25) = .333

6.125 P(T) = .5

Case 6.1
1. P(Curtain A) = 1/3, P(Curtain B) = 1/3
2. P(Curtain A) = 1/3, P(Curtain B) = 2/3
Switch to Curtain B and double your probability of winning the car.
Case 6.2
Probability Bases Probability Joint
Outcome of outcome Occupied Outs of scoring Probability
1 .75 2nd 1 .42 .3150
2 .10 1st 1 .26 .0260
3 .10 none 2 .07 .0070
4 .05 1st and 2nd 0 .59 .0295
P(scoring) = .3775
Because the probability of scoring with a runner on first base with no outs (.39) is greater than the probability of
scoring after bunting (.3775) you should not bunt.

Case 6.3
0 outs:
Probability of scoring any runs from first base = .39
Probability of scoring from second base = probability of successful steal × probability of scoring any runs from
second base = (.68)(.57) = .3876
Decision: Do not attempt to steal.

1 out:
Probability of scoring any runs from first base = .26
Probability of scoring from second base = probability of successful steal × probability of scoring any runs from
second base = (.68) × (.42) = .2856
Decision: Attempt to steal.

2 outs:
Probability of scoring any runs from first base = .13
Probability of scoring from second base = probability of successful steal × probability of scoring any runs from
second base = (.68) × (.24) = .1632
Decision: Attempt to steal.
Case 6.4

Age 25: P(D) = 1/1,300

P(D and PT) = (1/1,300)(.624) = .00048
P(D and NT) = (1/1,300)(.376) = .00029
P( D C and PT) = (1,299/1,300)(.04) = .03997
P( D C and NT) = (1,299/1,300)(.96) = .95926
P(PT) = .00048 + .03997 = .04045
P(NT) = .00029 + .95926 = .95955
P(D | PT) = .00048/.04045 = .01187
P(D | NT) = .00029/.95955 = .00030
Age 30: P(D) = 1/900
P(D and PT) = (1/900)(.710) = .00079
P(D and NT) = (1/900)(.290) = .00032
P( D C and PT) = (899/900)(.082) = .08190
P( D C and NT) = (899/900)(.918) = .91698
P(PT) = .00079 + .08190 = .08269
P(NT) = .00032 + .91698 = .91730
P(D | PT) = .00079/.08269 = .00955
P(D | NT) = .00032/.91730 = .00035

Age 35: P(D) = 1/350

P(D and PT) = (1/350)(.731) = .00209
P(D and NT) = (1/350)(.269) = .00077
P( D C and PT) = (349/350)(.178) = .17749
P( D C and NT) = (349/350)(.822) = .81965
P(PT) = .00209 + .17749 = .17958
P(NT) = .00077 + .81965 = .82042
P(D | PT) = .00209/.17958 = .01163
P(D | NT) = .00077/.82042 = .00094

Age 40: P(D) = 1/100

P(D and PT) = (1/100)(.971) = .00971
P(D and NT) = (1/100)(.029) = .00029
P( D C and PT) = (99/100)(.343) = .33957
P( D C and NT) = (99/100)(.657) = .65043
P(PT) = .00971 + .33957 = .34928
P(NT) = .00029 + .65043 = .65072
P(D | PT) = .00971/.34928 = .02780
P(D | NT) = .00029/.65072 = .00045

Age 45: P(D) = 1/25

P(D and PT) = (1/25)(.971) = .03884
P(D and NT) = (1/25)(.029) = .00116
P( D C and PT) = (24/25)(.343) = .32928
P( D C and NT) = (24/25)(.657) = .63072
P(PT) = .03884 + .32928 = .36812
P(NT) = .00116 + .63072 = .63188
P(D | PT) = .03884/.36812 = .10551
P(D | NT) = .00116/.63188 = .00184

Age 49: P(D) = 1/12

P(D and PT) = (1/12)(.971) = .08092
P(D and NT) = (1/12)(.029) = .00242
P( D C and PT) = (11/12)(.343) = .31442
P( D C and NT) = (11/12)(.657) = .60255
P(PT) = .08092 + .31442 = .39533
P(NT) = .00242 + .60255 = .60467
P(D | PT) = .08092/.39533 = .20468
P(D | NT) = .00242/.60467 = .00400
Case 6.5
The probability that 23 people have different birthdays is .4927. The probability that at least two people have the
same birthday is 1 − .4927 = .5073.