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Assignment Probability 1

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Assignment Probability 1

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lala 01
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© © All Rights Reserved
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Module 1: Practice Problems

July 8, 2024

Q1 Two randomly selected grocery store patrons are each asked to take a blind
taste test and to then state which of three diet colas (marked as A, B, or C)
he or she prefers.

• Draw a tree diagram depicting the sample space outcomes for the test
results.
• Write the following events:
– Both patrons prefer diet cola A.
– Two patrons prefer the same diet cola.
– Two patrons prefer different diet colas.
– Diet cola A is preferred by at least one of the two patrons.
– Neither of the patrons prefers diet cola C.
Following classical definition of probability find the probabilities of each
of the above events.

Q2 The U.S. Census Bureau compiles data on family income and summarizes its
findings. The following table is a frequency distribution of the annual incomes
for a random sample of U.S. families. Find the probability that a randomly
selected U.S. family has an income between $60, 000 and $199, 999.

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Income Frequency
Under $20, 000 11,470
$20, 000 − $39, 999 17,572
$40, 000 − $59, 999 14,534
$60, 000 − $79, 999 11,410
$80, 000 − $99, 999 7,535
$100, 000 − $199, 999 11,197
$200, 000 and above 2,280

Q3 A room has 3 lamp sockets. From a collection of 10 bulbs, of which 6 are bad,
a person selects 3 at random and puts them in sockets. What is the probability
that there will be light.

Q4 There are four coupons marked with numbers 221, 212, 122, 111. One coupon
is chosen at random. Suppose Ai denotes the ith digit of the number on the
chosen coupon is 2, i = 1, 2, 3. Examine whether the events A1 , A2 and A3 are
mutually independent.

Q5 Of six cars produced at a particular factory between 8 and 10 A.M. last Monday
morning, test runs revealed three of them to be “lemons”. Nevertheless, three
of the six cars were shipped to dealer A and the other three to dealer B. Dealer
A received all three lemons. What is the probability of this event occurring if,
in fact, the three cars shipped to dealer A were selected at random from the
six produced?

Q6 A state energy agency mailed questionnaires on energy conservation to 1.000


homeowners in the state capital. Five hundred questionnaires were returned.
Suppose an experiment consists of randomly selecting and reviewing one of the
returned questionnaires. Consider the events:

• A: The home is constructed of brick


• B: The home is more than 30 years old

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• C: The home is heated with oil
Describe each of the following events in terms of unions, intersections, and
complements
– The home is more than 30 years old and is heated with oil.
– The home is not constructed of brick.
– The home is heated with oil or is more than 30 years old.
– The home is constructed of brick and is not heated with oil.

Q7 Roulette is a very popular game in many American casinos. In roulette, a ball


spins on a circular wheel that is divided into 38 arcs of equal length, bearing
the numbers 00, 0, 1, 2, · · · , 35, 36. The number of the arc on which the ball
stops is the outcome of one play of the game. The numbers are also colored in
the following manner:
Red: 1,3,5,7,9,12,14,16,18,19,21.23,25,27,30,32.34,36
Black: 2.4,6,8,10,11,13,15,17,20,22,24.26,28,29,31,33,35
Green: 00, 0.
Players may place bets on the table in a variety of ways, including bets on odd,
even, red, black, high, low, etc. 00 and 0 are considered neither as odd nor as
even. Define the following events:

• A: Outcome is an odd number.


• B: Outcome is a black number.
• C: Outcome is a low number 1-18.
– Find P (A), P (B), P (C).
– Find P (A ∪ B), P (A ∪ C), P (B ∪ C), both using the formula and the
additive rule.
– Are the events A, B and C statistically independent events?
– Find P (A ∪ B ∪ C) and P (A ∩ B ∩ C).

Q8 An investor in wheat futures is concerned with the following events:

• A: A serious drought will occur next year.

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• B: US. production of wheat will be profitable next year

Based on available information, the investor believes that the probability is


0.01 that production of wheat will be profitable assuming a serious drought will
occur in the same year and that the probability is .05 that a serious drought
will occur. What is the probability that a serious drought will occur and that
a profit will be made?

Q9 Almost every retail business has the problem of determining how much inven-
tory to purchase. Insufficient inventory may result in lost business, and excess
inventory may have a detrimental effect on profits. Suppose a retail computer
store owner is planning to place an order for personal computers (PCs). She is
trying to decide how many IBM PCs and how many IBM compatibles to order.
The owner’s records indicate that 80% of the previous PC customers purchased
IBM PCs and 20% purchased compatibles.
What is the probability that the next two customers will purchase compatibles?

Q10 In 1997 in the United Kingdom just under 27 million men and women were
in employment. Of these 55% were men and 45% women. Of those women in
employment, 4.0% worked from home, compared to 1.4% of men in employ-
ment. Find the probability of a home worker? If a home worker is selected at
random, what is the probability that she is a woman?

Q11 A stock market analyst has studied the behaviour of the share prices of two
companies. She has estimated that over a 24-hour period the probability that
the share price of company A increases is 0.45, and for company B it is 0.35.
She has also observed that the prices of both shares increase on the same day
with a probability of 0.30. Find the probability that one or other of the share
prices will increase.

Q12 Suppose there are two urns U1 and U2 . Urn 1 has eight red balls and two green
balls, while urn 2 has four red balls and six green balls. One urn is chosen
at random. Find the conditional probability of choosing a red ball given urn

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1 is selected. Find the probability of choosing a green ball. Now suppose we
observe a green ball, what is the probability that it is chosen from urn 2?

Q13 Of 100 individuals who applied for systems analyst positions with a large firm
during the past year, 40 had some prior work experience (W), and 30 had a
professional certificate (C). However, 20 of the applicants had both work expe-
rience and a certificate, and thus are included in both of the counts. Determine
the conditional probability that a randomly chosen applicant has a certificate
given that he has some previous work experience. Check if work experience
and certification are independent events.

Q14 A project group of two engineers and three technicians is to be assigned from
a departmental group which includes five engineers and nine technicians. Sup-
pose the five individuals are assigned randomly from the fourteen personnel
in the department, without reference to whether each person is an engineer or
a technician. What is the probability that the project group will include (a)
exactly two engineers, (b) no engineers, (c) no technicians?

Q15 Eighty percent of the vinyl material received from Vendor A is of exceptional
quality while only 50 percent of the vinyl material received from Vendor B is
of exceptional quality. However, the manufacturing capacity of Vendor A is
limited, and for this reason only 40 percent of the vinyl material purchased
by our firm comes from Vendor A. The other 60 percent comes from Vendor
B. An incoming shipment of vinyl material is inspected, and found to be of
exceptional quality. What is the probability that it came from Vendor A?

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