PROJECT TIME PLANNING AND NETWORKS

ACTIVITY DURATION ESTIMATING

Estimate activity durations is the process of estimating the number of work periods
needed to complete individual activities with estimated resources. The key benefit of
this process is that it provides the amount of time each activity will take to complete,
which is a major input into the develop schedule process. The aim of effective project
management is to bring the project to completion on time and on schedule. Estimating
project duration is a key function of scheduling. Individual activities make up the
schedule, and the estimates of their duration determine the project timetable. The
accuracy of the overall schedule depends on the accuracy of these estimates.

Aspiring project managers must learn how to perform a variety of tasks in order to
get a project started and estimating activity duration is one of them. It’s not always an
easy task to estimate the project duration, because doing so needs a project manager’s
knowledge of some theory, along with application of some best practices and
methodologies. To estimate activity duration is a lengthy process and it takes time for
a long-term project. Ideally, you should involve your core project team in estimating
the duration. You should involve the project team, who will work on the project to
achieve the project objectives, project management team, and all the identified key
stakeholders to make a consensus on the milestone dates, and delivery schedules.
Depending on this duration, you can develop a schedule, with milestones for your
project. Estimating activity duration can be for a project phase or product phase and
is iterative in nature.

Activity Duration Estimating technique include:

a) Analogous Estimating

This is a very important methodology that gives you the entire duration estimation.
Based on the information of past projects that are similar, you can get a ballpark idea
of the entire duration estimation. If the company has carried out a similar activity, it
may be possible to adapt the duration to the current case. Project managers have to
study the similarities of the two activities and adjust for any features that may result
in differences in duration. Even small businesses can often find such similar activities
on which to base estimates. You may be able to get this information from the Project

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Management Office or another project manager; you can use this template for your
current project.

Analogous estimating the activity duration is not so accurate in nature; however, it is

less costly and less time consuming than other methods. You can frequently use this
method when you don’t have sufficient time to do a proper estimate, and you have a
deadline. Analogous estimating can be of a part of project as well, since you don’t have
to estimate the entire project. You can estimate activity duration for a single phase of
the project, if the requirement /nature of the phase are very similar to the previous
processed project.

Key points

 It is the fastest technique to calculate the estimate; however, less accurate

 It can be used when limited information about the project is available
 It is also known as top-down estimating

b) Parametric Estimating

This method is more accurate in nature. It is based on a statistical calculation of

historical data and other variables. For example, in the design phase in case of a
construction project, you may already have the activity duration: cutting 1,000 stones
will take 8 hours and so on. If your project is of a similar nature to one performed in
the past, it is worth your while to find existing activity duration estimates and
historical data from the past project.

Key points

 It uses statistical relationships between historical data and variables

 It is more accurate than the analogous technique

c) Heuristic Estimating

This is also known as Rule of Thumb. You can roughly guess that entire design phase
can take 45% of your entire project time and so on…this is a very useful technique in
case of known phases where you can put an imaginary figure based on the experience.

d) Reserve Analysis

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Reserve analysis includes estimation of additional time to the project schedule (to
allow time for unexpected delay) and additional cost to the project budget (in case of
activity cost overruns). It is more of like analysis for the contingency or adding buffers
to the estimations. A reserve analysis is a type of contingency reserve. After fixing a
schedule for each activity level depending on the activity attributes, you can create
contingency reserve timing by adding some percentage in the derived schedule of
each activity. It can be changed as work progresses; reducing or increasing depending
on the situation.

e) Work Breakdown

Sometimes an activity is too large or complex for a reliable duration estimate. Project
guidelines state that an individual activity that takes up more than 10 percent of the
project schedule has to be broken down. A project manager uses a work breakdown
technique to reduce the activity to smaller tasks. Ideally, the project manager can
estimate the duration of tasks that individual workers perform more accurately than
the whole activity.

f) Historical

An effective way of estimating activity duration is to use historical data. If data on the
duration of the same activities is available, project managers take the average duration
of the historical records and use that in the project schedule. For small businesses
which have not completed many projects, other methods are preferable.

g) Expert Judgment

If expert judgment is available at reasonable cost, a project manager will often use
such duration estimates as superior to internally generated ones. Expert judgment
means using specialists who have a reputation for knowledge of the particular field
and experience in estimating activity duration within it.

h) Effort required

A project manager who knows what resources are necessary for an activity may
calculate the effort the activity requires and arrive at duration. He adds the amount of
time it takes to obtain materials to the labor time it takes to complete the tasks. Such
an estimate has the advantage that it allows the project manager to track resource use
and compare it to the estimate.

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i) Units to produce

Calculation based on units of activity is a method available to both the largest and
smallest businesses. Typical units are numbers of products or size of the product.
Project managers can calculate how much time it took to produce a certain number or
a certain size and adjust for the number or size they want to produce. Project managers
have to adjust for economies of scale for these calculations.

Network diagram (sequencing the activities). It can be changed as work progresses

and as new activities identified in your project. Initially, you can estimate your project
based on the network diagram (sequencing the activities). It can be further modified
based on the changes done in the project during the execution, controlling and
monitoring process. While project managers can't know the actual time, it will take to
complete an activity, there are six methods they can use to obtain reliable estimates.

j) Three-Point Estimating

This kind of estimating is based on considering various options like the assignment of
the resources, uncertainty, and the risk associated—such as best scenario-based and
worst-scenario based. The three-point estimating concept is originated from PERT
(Program Evaluation and Review Technique). It gives a weighted average of these
three to arrive at a more realistic estimate. Through PERT, we generally estimate three
types of duration:

 Most Likely (M)

 Optimistic (O)
 Pessimistic (P)

Of these, Most Likely (M) is based on the resources assigned and Optimistic (O) is
based on the best scenario-based analysis. And the last one—Pessimistic (P)—is based
on the worst possible scenario-based analysis. Once you have these, you can use some
very useful formulas to derive the expected duration.

They are as follows:

TE = (O + 4M + P) ÷ 6

Here, TE is expected time, and O, M, P are Optimistic, Most Likely, and Pessimistic
duration respectively. In this way, you can understand the importance of PERT in

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estimating the duration for your project. These estimate values are usually taken from
subject matter experts in respective activity area.

Basic concepts used in PERT and CPM

 Network. It is a logical and chronological set of activities and events, graphically
illustrating relationships among the various activities and events of the project.
 Project. This is a group of activities and events with a definite start and end as
well as both human and financial resources. Examples include constructing a
dam, building a house, designing a new product among others.
 Activity. It is a task or job requiring resources to be accomplished. Examples
include collecting data, answering a question in an examination, painting a wall
among others. The activity is depicted by a single arrow ( ) on the project
network. The activity arrows are called arcs.
i. Predecessor activity: Are activities that must be completed prior to the start
of another activity.
ii. Successor activity: Are activities that cannot be started until one or more of
the other activities are completed.
iii. Concurrent activities: Are activities that can be accomplished together at the
same time.
 Event. An event represents a specific accomplishment in the project and takes
place at a particular instant of time. It is a time oriented reference point that
signifies the end of one activity and the beginning of another. Events are usually
represented by circles ( ). The event circles are called nodes. All activity arrows
must begin and end with event nodes as shown below: -

Start Finish
Activity Event
Event

Types of events.
i. Merge events: it’s where one or more activities join an event.
ii. Burst event: it’s where more than one activity leaves an event.
iii. Merge and burst event: It’s where more than one activity join and leave an
event.

Merge event burst event merge and burst event

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  A path is a series of adjacent activities leading from one event to another
 Critical path. It is the sequence of critical activities that forms a continuous path
between the start of a project and its completion.
 Critical activity. It’s an activity that if slightly delayed, will hold up the scheduled
completion date of the entire project.
 Dummy activity: it is represented by a dashed arrow on the project network and
is inserted in the network to clarify activity pattern in the following situations:-
i. To make activities with common starting and finishing events
distinguishable
ii. To identify and maintain the proper precedence relationship between
activities that is not connected by events.
Example:
The following example shows a simple Activity on Arrow Diagram.

Activity on Arrow Diagram

In this example A, B, C, D, E, F, G rows are representing the activities. Numbers above

the rows are activity durations. As shown in the schema above, in Arrow
Diagramming Method (ADM), only F-S Relationship is used to link activities.

Step 1: Forward Pass Calculation

Forward Pass Calculation – Arrow Diagramming Method (ADM)

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Step 2: Backward Pass Calculation

Backward Pass Calculation-Arrow diagramming method (ADM)

Step 3: Float Calculation for Each Activity / Arrow Diagramming Method Example

Float Calculation-Arrow diagramming method (ADM)

Float can be calculated by subtracting the Start Date of an activity from its Finish Date.

Step 4: Identifying the critical path / Arrow Diagramming Method Example

Critical Path-Arrow diagramming method (ADM)

The critical path is the longest path in the network diagram and the total float of
critical path is zero. As shown in the schema above, the critical path is marked red.

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Summary

The Arrow Diagramming Method (ADM) and The Precedence Diagramming

Method (PDM) are two network scheduling techniques. The first one is the traditional
one used widely in the past. The second one is the current method that we are using
widely now. In this simple arrow diagramming method example we show how to
make forward, backward, total float and critical path calculation. Nowadays the arrow
diagramming lost its popularity because of the introduction of software solutions but
in order to use this software successfully, it is important to understand
both scheduling techniques.

Guidelines for construction of network diagrams

1. Each activity must be represented by one and only one arrow in the network.
2. No two activities can be identified by the same beginning and end events. In
such cases, a dummy is introduced to resolve the problem.
3. Before an activity can be undertaken, all activities preceding it must be
completed.
4. The arrows depicting various activities are indicative of the logical precedence
only. The length and bearing of the arrows are of no significance.
5. The flow of the diagram should be from left to right.
6. Arrows (activities) should be kept straight and should not be crossed.
7. Angle between the arrows should be as large as possible.
8. Dangling must be avoided. This happens when precedence and inter-
relationship of the activities are not properly identified.
9. The general rule (Fulkerson’s rule) for numbering the events is that no event
can be numbered until all preceding events have been numbered. Therefore,
the number at the head of an arrow is always larger than that at its tail.
Example 1
Draw a network for a project of erection of steel works for a shed. The various
elements of the project are as under:

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 Activity code Description Prerequisites

A Erect site workshop None

B Fence site None
C Bend reinforcement A
D Dig foundation B
E Fabricate steel works A, C
F Install concrete plant B
G Place reinforcement C, D
H Concrete foundation G, F
I Paint steel works E
J Erect steel work H, I
K Give finishing touch J
Solution

A C I

G
H J K
B D
F

Example 2

Draw a network diagram from the following activities.

Activity Immediate predecessor

A None
B A
C A
D A
E B
F C
G C
H C&D
I E&F
J G&H
K I&J

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Solution

3 E 6

B F I

1 A 2 C 4
G
7 J 8 K 9

D
H

Time Estimates In Network Analysis

Activity time is a forecast of the time an activity is expected to take from its starting
time to its completion, under normal circumstances. The basic objective of the time
analysis is to get a planned schedule of the project. The plan should include:-

a. Total completion time for the project

b. Earliest time when each activity can begin
c. Latest time when each activity can be started, without delaying the total project
d. Float for each activity i.e. amount of time by which the completion of an activity
can be delayed without delaying the total project completion
e. Identification of critical activities and critical path.
 Slack time of event: It’s the difference between the latest event time and earliest
event time
 Head Event slack (HES): It is the slack at the head (or terminal point) of an activity.
It is the difference between the latest event time and earliest event time at its head
(or terminal point or node)
 Tail Event Slack (TES): It is the slack at the tail (or starting point) of an activity. It
is the difference between the latest event time and the earliest event time at its tail
(or starting point or node).
 Earliest Finish Time (EFT): It’s equal to the latest finish time of the activity plus the
duration of that activity.
 Latest Start Time (LST): It is equal to the latest finish time of the activity minus the
duration of that activity.
 Total float: It represents the amount of time by which an activity can be delayed
without delaying the project completion date:
Total Float  Latest Start Time - Earliest Start Time
Total Float  Latest Finish time - Earliest Finish Time

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 Free float: It is that portion of the total float within which an activity can be
manipulated without affecting the float of subsequent activities.
Free Float  Total Float - Head Event Slack
 Independent float: It is that portion of the total float within which an activity can
be delayed for start without affecting the float of preceding activities.
Independent Float  Total Float - Tail Event Slack
In case negative value is obtained, it is taken as zero

CRITICAL PATH METHOD

CPM emphasizes the relationship between applying more men or other resources to
shorten the duration of given jobs in a project and the increased cost of these
additional resources. With CPM, the amount of time needed to complete various parts
of the project is assumed to be known with certainty. The relation between the amount
of resources employed and the time needed to complete the project is assumed to be
known.
The iterative procedure of determining the critical path involves the following steps:

1. Break down the project into various activities systematically. Label all activities.
Arrange all the activities in logical sequence. Construct the arrow diagram.
2. Number all the nodes (events) and activities. Find the time for each activity
considering it to be deterministic. Indicate the activity times on the arrow diagram.
3. Calculate the earliest start time, earliest finish time, latest start time and latest finish
time. Tabulate various items i.e. activity normal times, earliest times and latest
times.
4. Determine the total float for each activity by taking difference between the earliest
time and latest time for each node.
5. Identify the critical activities and connect them with the beginning node and the
ending node in the network diagram by double line arrow. This gives the critical
path.
6. Calculate the total project duration.
7. If it is intended to reduce the total project duration, crash the critical activities of
the network.
8. Optimize the cost.
9. Update the network and smooth the network resources.

Advantages of CPM
1. Helps the top management to concentrate their attention to the critical activities
and their completion in time.

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 2. Provides the knowledge of critical and non-critical activities. This helps the
management to divert the resources from non-critical to critical activities.
3. Provides a best way of planning and scheduling a construction project knowing
the critical path.
4. Gives the complete information about the importance, duration, size and
performance of an activity.
Drawbacks of CPM
1. It is based on the assumption of known time for each of the activity in the
project, which may not be true in real life situations.
2. Does not incorporate statistical analysis in determining the time estimates.
3. Entire evaluation of the project is to be repeated and a new critical path is to be
found out when certain changes are introduced in the network.
4. Suitable for a situation that has a definite start and a definite finish.

PROJECT EVALUATION AND REVIEW TECHNIQUE (PERT)

Steps involved in developing PERT network

1. Develop a list of activities that make up the project including immediate

predecessors.
2. A rough PERT network is drawn on the basis of the three questions for each
activity i.e which activities precede this one? Which activities follow this one?
Which activities are concurrent with this one?
3. The network is then suitably sketched to conform to rules and conventions.
4. Events are numbered in ascending order from left to right.
5. Time estimates for each activity are then obtained. They are
 The most likely estimate (m or tm). It’s the time the activity will take
most frequently if performed a number of times i.e. the modal value.
 The pessimistic estimate (b or tp). It is the longest time the activity can
conceivably take.
 The optimistic estimate (a or to): it is that time estimate of an activity
when everything is assumed to go well as per plan.
6. Then, upon the assumption of beta distribution for the activity duration, the
expected time, te for each activity is computed from the following formula
a+4m+b
te =
6

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 7. Using the expected activity time estimates, determine the earliest start time
and the earliest finish time for each activity. The earliest finish time for the
complete project corresponds to the earliest finish time for the last activity.
8. After determining the latest start time and the latest finish time for each
activity, compute the float associated with each activity, the critical path
activities are the activities with zero float. Determine the critical path through
the given network.
9. Using the values for b and a which were determined in step 5, calculate the
variance (2) of each activity’s time estimates by
𝑏−𝑎 2
2 = ( )
6

10. Use the variability in the activity times to estimates to estimate the variability
of the project completion date. Using this estimate, compute the probability
of meeting a specified completion date by using the standard normal
equation:
 = Due date – Expected date of completion

 Project variance

Where Z = number of standard deviations the due date or target date lies from

the mean or expected date.

11. Crashing or compressing the project may have to be undertaken if the critical
path duration (as the project duration) is not acceptable to the management.
Resource allocation may have to be performed if resources are limited.
Examples

PERT – Program Evaluation and Review Technique Example

The associated network is below. All the inputs are listed in the table below.

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PERT Method Example

After building a network diagram and estimating the activity durations, you will
determine the critical path by making forward and backward pass calculations.
Forward Pass Calculations specify the minimum dates at which each activity can be
performed and, ultimately, the minimum duration of a project.

PERT -Forward Pass Calculation

Backward Pass Calculations determine the latest dates by which each activity can be
performed without increasing the projects minimum duration.

PERT -Backward Pass Calculation

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After completing the backward pass calculation, you can easily determine the critical
path. In project management, “float” or “slack” is the amount of time that a task can
be delayed without affecting the deadlines of other subsequent tasks, or the project’s
final delivery date. Total float/slack is 0 on the critical path.

PERT Method -Activity

Total Float: LS – ES = 18-15 = 3

Total Float: LF – EF = 30-27 = 3

The total float can be calculated by subtracting the Early Start date of an activity
from its Late Start date or Early Finish date from its Late Finish date.

Critical Path: When we analyze the network diagram we will see that there are
some paths and every path have duration. The critical path is the longest path in the
network diagram and the total float of the critical path is zero.

Summary

In real life, projects are not executed as it was planned all the time. Risks, unexpected
events, uncertainty, and subjective estimates are significant reasons for deviations.
PERT is helpful for estimating the project completion time in case of uncertainty.
However, it may be difficult to use without software. In this example, we talked about

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the pert definition and calculated the expected duration for each activity. By making
forward, backward calculations, we determined the critical path. Accuracy of
expected durations which affect the critical path depends on the optimistic,
pessimistic and most likely duration estimates. By the help of PERT software, it is easy
to make these calculations efficiently for many combinations.

Advantages of PERT
1. Forces management to plan carefully how the various parts fit into the whole
project.
2. Focuses attention on the critical elements of the project.
3. Provides a forward looking type of control
4. Suggests areas for increasing efficiency, reduction of costs and profit
improvements.
5. Makes possible the pressure for action at the right time.
6. Provides up-to-date status information through frequent reporting, data
processing and accurate programme analysis.
7. Helps to formulate new schedules when existing schedule cannot be met, and
serve the planning and evaluation at all levels.
8. Minimizes production delays, interruptions and conflicts by scheduling and
budgeting resources.
9. Co-ordinates the various parts of the total job and thereby expedite and
achieve completion of projects on time.

Shortcomings of PERT
1. Emphasizes on time only and not on costs.
2. Time estimates to perform activities constitute a major limitation of this
technique.
3. Calculation of probabilities under PERT approach is done on the assumption
that a large number of independent activities operate on critical path and as
such the distribution of total time is normal but this may not be true in real life
situations.
4. Using PERT for active control of a project requires frequent updating and
revising the PERT calculations and this proves quite costly.

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Differences between PERT and CPM
PERT CPM

- It’s a probabilistic model with - It’s a deterministic model with

uncertainty in activity duration. well-known activity (single) times
based upon the past experience.
- It is event oriented as the results of - It is activity oriented as the results
analysis are expressed in terms of of calculation are considered in
events or distinct points in time terms of activities or operations of
indicative of progress. the project.
- The use of dummy activities is - The use of dummy activities is not
required for representing the necessary.
proper sequencing.
- It is used for repetitive jobs. - It is used for non-repetitive jobs.
- It is applied mainly for planning - It is used for construction and
and scheduling research business problems.
programmes.
- PERT analysis does not usually - CPM deals with costs of project
consider costs. schedules and their minimization.

Key Points

 It uses three estimates (most likely, optimistic, and pessimistic) to calculate the
average value of activity duration
 It reduces the bias, risks, and uncertainties from the duration calculation
 It is more accurate than the rest

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Exercises

A small project consisting of eight activities has the following characteristics:-

Time estimates in weeks

Activity Preceding Most Most Most pessimistic

activity optimistic (a) likely (m) (b)

A None 2 7 12

B None 10 18 26

C A 8 9 10

D A 10 15 20

E A 7 9 11

F B, C 9 9 9

G D 3 5 7
5
H E, F, G 5 5

Required;

i. Draw the PERT network for the project.

ii. Determine the critical path
iii. Prepare the activity schedule for the project.
iv. If a 30 weeks deadline is imposed, what is the probability that the project will
be finished within the time limit?
v. If the project manager wants to be 99% sure that the project is completed on
the schedule date, how many weeks before that date should he start the
project work?

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