Impact of Monetary Policy On Indonesia's Economic Growth
Impact of Monetary Policy On Indonesia's Economic Growth
DAFTAR ISI
Editor(s):
Joko Nurkamto (Universitas Sebelas Maret, Indonesia), Kalu Osiri (University of Nebraska-
Lincoln, United States of America), Abd. Qadir Muslim (Universitas Brawijaya,
Indonesia), Marzuki Alie (Universitas Indo Global Mandiri, Indonesia) and Iuliaa Feofilova
(Associated Leading Researcher, Munchen, Germany)
index by
Impact of Monetary Policy on Indonesia's Economic
Growth, Case Studies before and during the
Covid-19 Pandemic
Dini Hariyanti1, Victor Siagian, Soeharjoto2
{[email protected], [email protected]} Faculty of
1 Introduction
Indonesia's economic growth rate in 2019 was 5.02 percent lower than in 2018, when it was
5.17 percent [1]. This is reflected in Indonesia's Gross Domestic Product, which was ranked 16th
in 2019. In terms of purchasing power parity (PPP), the country's economic growth is ranked 7th
in the world [2]. Strong economic growth is intrinsically related to the influence of the monetary
and financial sectors, both of which are thought to be more or less successful policy strengths.
This is because, through the transmission mechanism, the monetary sector has a bigger influence
on the real sector's operation, including investment, output, and consumption activities, which
affects inflation. The influence of the monetary and financial sectors, which are deemed more or
less effective strengths achieved by policy, is inextricably linked to high economic growth. This is
because, through the transmissionmechanism, the monetary sector has a greater influence on the
real sector's operation, including investment, production, and consumption activities, all of which
affect aggregate output lev.
2 Theoretical Review
Classical economic growth theory is a foundation of growth theory that has been used in
the past and continues to be used today. Economic thinkers like Adam Smith and David
Ricardo proposed the classical economic growth hypothesis. In his book "An Inquiry into the
Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations," Adam Smith makes a systematic argument on
the long-term mechanism of economic progress. Total output growth and population
expansion, according to Smith, are the two main aspects of economic growth. The population
is regarded as a non-active factor. As a result, a country's growth is more dependent on output
growth. While production growth is mostly influenced by capital invested, capital is
determined by profit earned. Profit is determined by the market (demand), which in turn is
determined by the population. Wages are essential to the population. Wages are determined by
productivity. Natural factors are constant, according to the classical assumption. So, at some
point, the level of production will achieve "Full Employment," which means that the amount
of output can no longer be increased because it has reached its maximum level. As a result, the
pay level will remain unchanged, because if wages remain unchanged, the population will
remain unchanged, as wages determine the cost of living for the population. As a result,
achieving "Full Employment" means that the economy will stagnate, and the economy will
eventually become a static and mediocre economic sub-system. In concept, David Ricardo's
hypothesis is identical to Adam Smith's proposal. Assuming that natural conditions remain
constant and that the population continues to expand at a rapid rate, the level of economic
development will eventually be very low and will cease to develop.
The Bank of Indonesia (BI) Rate is the policy interest rate that represents the Bank of
Indonesia's monetary policy stance and is made public. The BI Rate is a monthly financial
policy made by BI, followed by a meeting of members of the board of governors to assess the
general economic situation at home and abroad. The BI Rate was then determined using
monetary operations to reflect BI's attitude toward these situations. The validity of the interest
rate channel of the Bank of Russia's monetary policy transmission mechanism gives indicate
that interest rate policy is partly efficient following the global financial crisis, according to
study conducted by [13].
Inflation is one of the most important variables in determining the BI Rate's value. The rise
and fall of inflation will cause prices of products and services to rise or fall in general and over
time. The BI Rate will be determined by the rate of inflation as it rises and falls. Bank
Indonesia will boost the BI Rate if inflation rises. Bank Indonesia, on the other hand, will cut
the BI Rate if inflation lowers. An increase in currency demand is attributable to a rise in the
demand for money transactions, or possibly a rise in the speculative desire for money. Money
demand transactions will be strongly linked to the country's level of economic activity, gross
domestic income (GDI) or gross domestic product (GDP), and the level of worker demand.
The higher a country's unemployment rate, the less individuals will be able to spend money on
products and services in general. In Indonesia, the Central Bank, in this case, Bank Indonesia,
finds it difficult to alter the money supply in a timely manner to accommodate changes in
inventory in the demand for money related to business transactions.
Foreign currency rates are employed in trade transactions. The exchange rate indicates
how much rupiah is required to obtain foreign currency. The exchange rate, according to [11],
is the price of one unit of foreign currency in domestic currency. In other terms, the exchange
rate is the cost of exchanging one currency for another. The rupiah to dollar exchange rate is
commonly used. Because the dollar is a relatively stable economic currency. A stable
exchange rate tends to indicate a stable economic condition because a stable exchange rate
indicates good monetary stability and various monetary and banking transactions are running
smoothly.
However, the appreciation of the exchange rate and the depreciation of the exchange rate
affect economic growth. When the exchange rate depreciates, the impact is that the production
of export-oriented goods and services will increase because prices abroad will be higher than
prices at home, so it will be more expensive. It is also profitable if the goods and services are
exported. The greater the export, the foreign exchange reserves will increase and the
productivity of export-oriented goods and services will increase, which will increase economic
growth in general [12]. Based on a study conducted by [13] on the effect of the exchange rate
regime on economic growth They underlined the significance of an accompanying monetary
policy framework to the exchange rate system. [14] asserted the same thing, demonstrating
that depending on preferences and the monetary policy that accompanies the exchange rate
regime, either a fixed or floating exchange rate system could give a higher degree of economic
growth. According to [10], the Bank of Russia's current tight monetary policy appears to be
fairly acceptable in the face of highly fluctuating exchange rates. Economic growth is not
hampered by economic actors' excessive inflation. After making significant progress in
improving the effectiveness of the monetary policy transmission mechanism by switching to
an inflation targeting and settlement regime for interest rate setting, the Bank of Russia will be
able to boost economic agents' confidence and increase the effectiveness of interest rate
policies by maintaining the regime and increasing the monetary base.
Hypothesis Development
The money supply, interest rate, inflation and the exchange rates has a significant effect on
economic growth both before and during the Covid-19 pandemic.
3 Research Method
EGt = f (Money Supply, Interest Rate, Inflation, Exchange Rate, Dummy Covid-19)
Where:
EG = economic growth
MS = the money supply in the narrow sense
Irate = deposit interest rate
INF = inflation rate
ER = exchange rate
Dcovid-19 = period before and during the Covid-19 pandemic
𝛼 = coefficient of elasticity
𝜀 = error term
The type of data used in this study is panel data (cross section and time series) from 2009
to september 2020. This data is obtained from secondary data, namely data that has been
published by a trusted official institution or institution. The sources of data used are secondary
data that has been published and issued by the bank of Indonesia and the central bureau of
statistics.
Based on the results of descriptive statistics, the variable economic growth in Indonesia
has a minimum value of 2158,040 with a maximum value of 2818,890 and the average value
(mean) obtained from 69 observations is 2509,476 and a standard deviation of 186,6876. The
standard deviation value indicates that the research data for the economic growth variable has
a value of more than one, which means that the research data for the economic growth variable
is varied. The variable amount of money in circulation has a minimum value of 4174,830 with
a maximum value of 6748,570, and the average value (mean) obtained from 69 observations is
5294,233 and the standard deviation is 695,0827. The value of the standard deviation indicates
that the research data for the money supply variable as a proxy for monetary policy has a value
of more than one, which means that the research data for the money supply variable is varied.
The variable deposit interest rate has a minimum value of 5.790000 with a maximum value
of 8.790000, and the average value (mean) obtained from 69 observations is 7.075217 and the
standard deviation is 0.794830. The value of the standard deviation shows a value smaller than
the number one, which means that the research data for the deposit interest rate variable is not
diverse or homogeneous. The inflation variable has a minimum value of negative 1.730000
with a maximum value of 4.950000, and the average value (Mean) obtained from 69
observations is 2.732174 and the standard deviation is 1.739838. The standard deviation value
indicates that the research data for the inflation variable has a value of more than one, which
means that the research data for the inflation variable is varied. The Exchange Rate variable
has a minimum value of 12672.00 with a maximum value of 16310.00, and the average value
(mean) obtained from 69 observations is 13839.16 and a standard deviation of 638.8389. The
standard deviation value indicates that the research data for the exchange rate variable has a
value of less than one, which means that the research data for the exchange rate variable is less
varied.
Table 1. Descriptive Statistics of Research Variables
EG MS Irate INF ER
Mean 2509.476 5294.233 7.075217 2.732174 13839.16
Median 2508.970 5321.430 6.910000 3.530000 13751.00
Maximum 2818.890 6748.570 8.790000 4.950000 16310.00
Minimum 2158.040 4174.830 5.790000 -1.730000 12672.00
Std. Dev. 186.6876 695.0827 0.794830 1.739838 638.8389
Skewness -0.144985 0.191213 0.754545 -1.021838 0.973364
Kurtosis 1.888984 2.068849 2.431207 3.200712 4.737814
Observations 69 69 69 69 69
Source: Processed data research 2021
Before testing the theoretical hypothesis, the classical assumption is tested first. From the
classical assumption test, it can be concluded that the theoretical hypothesis testing can be
continued because there are two classical assumptions that are violated, namely
multicollinearity and autocorrelation. For this reason, the regression model was improved by
performing autocorrelation healing using the rho coefficient. The results of processing the
model of the level of economic activity after there is an improvement are shown in table 4.2.
The classic assumption test after the autocorrelation improvement can be explained as follows:
a. The results of the normality test concluded that the distribution of the residuals was normal
as indicated by the prob value of the jarque berra of 0.03744 > 0.01, which means Ho is
accepted so that the data distribution of the normal residuals is at alpha 1% b.
Multicollinearity testing using VIF produces a VIF value < 10 for all independent variables
used, namely Money Supply, Deposit Interest Rates, Inflation, and the exchange rate, so that it
can be concluded that in the resulting model there is no multicollinearity. c. Autocorrelation
testing using the LM test produces a prob value of the LM test of 0.1814 > 0.05, which means
Ho is accepted, so that it can be achieved that in the resulting model there is no autocorrelation
problem. d. Heteroscedasticity testing using the white test results in a prob value of the white
test of 0.4438 > 0.05, which means Ho is accepted, so that it can be achieved that the resulting
model does not have heteroscedasticity
4.2 Statistical Regression Results
The fit model is indicated by the adjusted R2 value of 0.865981, which means that the
variation or behaviour of the independent variables, namely Money Supply, deposit interest
rate, Inflation, Exchange Rate, DCovid-19, is able to explain the variation of the behaviour of
the dependent variable, namely the level of economic activity (EG), while the rest, 14.41%, is
a variation of other independent variables that affect EG but are not included in the model.
These results indicate that the EG model for conventional banks has a good goodness of fit.
The results of the global test (F test) are indicated by the prob value of F of 0.000 <0.05,
which means Ho is rejected (Ha is accepted) so that it can be concluded that there is at least 1
independent variable that has a significant effect on the level of economic activity (EG).
4.3 Analysis
The research hypothesis testing was carried out on the 5 hypotheses proposed, namely:
Hypothesis 1 aims to examine the effect of Money Supply on Economic Growth. From the
calculation results, the estimated coefficient value is 0.259493, which means that Money
Supply has a positive effect on Economic Growth where increasing Money supply will
increase Economic Growth and vice versa. With a t-statistic of 8.0144, the prob value of 0.000
0.05 means that Ho is rejected and Ha is accepted, so it can be concluded that the positive
effect of Money Supply on Economic Growth is significant.
Hypothesis 2 was conducted to examine the negative effect of the Deposit Interest Rate on
Economic Growth. The processing result is indicated by a coefficient value of-21.79824,
which means that an increase in the deposit interest rate will reduce Economic Growth and it
is better if a decrease in the deposit interest rate will increase Economic Growth. With a
statistical t value of-1.040760, the prob value of 0.3020/2 = 0.1501 > 0.05, which means Ho is
accepted, so that it can be concluded that it is not proven that deposit interest rates have a
negative effect on Economic Growth.
Hypothesis 3 aims to examine the negative effect of inflation on Economic Growth. From
the calculation results, the estimated coefficient value is -10.16612, which means that
increasing inflation will decrease Economic Growth and vice versa, decreasing inflation will
increase Economic Growth. With a t statistic of -1.313524, the prob value of 0.0919 <0.1 is
obtained so that Ho is rejected (Ha is accepted). These findings indicate that the theoretical
hypothesis which states that there is a negative effect of inflation on Economic Growth is
proven.
Hypothesis 4 is carried out with the aim of testing the positive effect of the exchange rate
on Economic Growth. The calculation results are shown by the estimated coefficient value of
0.019972, which means that increasing the value of the rupiah against the dollar (depreciation)
will increase Economic Growth and conversely, decreasing the value of the rupiah against the
dollar (appreciation) will decrease Economic Growth. With a t-statistic value of 1.350446, the
prob value of 0.0909 <0.10 means that Ho is rejected (Ha is accepted) so that it can be
concluded that the positive effect of the exchange rate on Economic Growth is significant.
Hypothesis 5 aims to test the positive effect of Covid-19 on Economic Growth. From the
calculation results, an estimated coefficient of -163.3029 is obtained, which means that there
are differences in the level of economic activity before and after Covid-19, where the level of
economic activity after Covid-19 is lower than the level of economic activity before Covid-19.
With a t-statistic value of -6.985633, a prob value of 0.000 <0.05 means Ho is rejected and Ha
is accepted, so it can be concluded that Covid-19 caused the activity level to decrease
compared to conditions before Covid-19.
4.4 Discussion
The money supply has a strong effect on economic growth in terms of the sign and
magnitude of the coefficient that demonstrates the effect of monetary policy in this scenario.
The same thing happened with inflation, exchange rates, and the covid-19 dummy. If the
model shows that the interest rate effect is not considerable, as expected, according to the
model. This contrasts with [10], who found that interest rate policies were only partially
effective following the global financial crisis.
Moreover, the unit change in inflation brings about a 1 percent increase in the level of
output at a significance level of 5%, which shows a positive impact on economic growth but
falls short of theoretical expectations. The impact of inflation on economic growth is large and
detrimental. In principle, an increase in oil prices is one of the negative effects of inflation on
Indonesian economic growth. If the price of fuel oil rises, the price of goods and services in
the community will rise as well. The inflation rate in Indonesia will rise as the cost of goods
and services rises.
According to the LPEM report [19], inflation during the Covid-19 pandemic in July was
1.52 percent year on year, up from 1.33 percent the previous month. Although core inflation
dropped marginally, the strengthening of inflation was driven by the strengthening of
government-regulated price components and volatile goods prices throughout this period.
Inflation on the government-regulated price component was recorded at 0.61 percent, up from
0.49 percent the previous month. Core inflation, on the other hand, fell marginally from 1.49
percent in June 2021 to 1.40 percent in July 2021. However, the lowering of core inflation was
insufficient to lower overall inflation year over year in this period.
A unit change in the exchange rate causes a decrease in economic growth of about 1,9
percent and is significant at 10%, while a unit change in external reserves brings an increase in
real GDP at a significant rate of 1%. In theory, the effect of the exchange rate on economic
growth depends on the preferences and monetary policy that accompanies the exchange rate
regime, so that a fixed or floating exchange rate system can provide a higher rate of economic
growth. According to an IDX Channel [20] release, the rupiah exchange rate is still swinging
and tending to weaken in August 2021, while the stock market is agitated as the Composite
Stock Price Index (JCI) is corrected rather thoroughly. The reduction in the rupiah exchange
rate versus the US dollar is one of the negative consequences that the government should pay
more attention to. Because, in this case, the rupiah exchange rate is connected to other
economic indicators. Furthermore, the exchange rate variable's coefficient between monetary
policy and other macroeconomic variables was found to be positive and significant, but the
coefficient between exchange rate and interest rate was found to be negative and significant.
The money supply coefficient and the inflation rate are both significant, according to the
results of the calculations. The significant link between money supply, inflation, exchange
rate, and economic growth reflects these measures potential as necessary components for
transferring monetary policy impulses to the aggregate economy. In Indonesia, meanwhile, the
insignificant relationship between interest rates and the economy indicates that monetary
policy is ineffective in influencing this macroeconomic variable during pandemic. The
dominance of fiscal policy, especially government spending, in encouraging these
macroeconomic variables, especially during the Covid-19 pandemic, supports this. Moreover,
the insignificant relationship between the interest rate variable can be explained by the
prudence of economic actors in transmitting monetary policy to the main variables in the
economy, which are usually price stability and economic growth.
5 Conclusions
Based on the findings, the conclusions that can be drawn from this study are: The positive
influence of Monetary Policy, in this case Money Supply, on economic growth has proven to
be significant both in the period before and after the Covid-19 pandemic. The effect of deposit
interest rates on economic growth has not been proven to have a negative and significant
effect both in the period before and after the Covid-19 pandemic. The negative effect of
inflation on economic growth has proven to be significant both in the period before and after
the Covid-19 pandemic. The positive influence of the exchange rate on economic growth has
proven to be significant both in the period before and after the Covid-19 pandemic. It is
proven that Covid-19 causes activity levels to decrease compared to conditions before Covid-
19. The limitation of this research is Data. The data used is monthly data for the period 2015
(before the pandemic) to 2020 (during the Covid-19 pandemic). The policy implication of this
study is that monetary policy during the pandemic has no effect on the economy, but the fiscal
policy carried out by the government is appropriate to increase people's purchasing power.
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Impact of Monetary Policy on Indonesia's Economic Growth,
Case Studies before and during the Covid-19 Pandemic
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