Scribd
Upload
19 views

Tut 3

Uploaded by

salaarmasood321
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
19 views

Tut 3

Uploaded by

salaarmasood321
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
You are on page 1/ 2

MATH 230: Spring 2023-2024 Tutorial 3

Ijaz Haider Naqvi

Tutorial 3 – Conditional Probability

Question: A total of 48 percent of the women and 37 percent of the men that took a certain
“quit smoking” class remained nonsmokers for at least one year after completing the class.
These people then attended a success party at the end of a year. If 62 percent of the original
class was male,
(a) what percentage of those attending the party were women?
(b) what percentage of the original class attended the party?
𝑃(𝑊∩𝐴) 𝑃(𝐴|𝑊)∗𝑃(𝑊) (0.48)∗(0.38)
a) 𝑃(𝑊|𝐴) = = 𝑃(𝐴|𝑊)∗𝑃(𝑊)+𝑃(𝐴|𝑊 𝑐 )∗𝑃(𝑊 𝑐) = (0.48)∗(0.38)+(0.37)∗(0.62) = 0.44
𝑃(𝐴)

b) 𝑃(𝐴) = 𝑃(𝐴|𝑊)𝑃(𝑊) + 𝑃(𝐴|𝑊 𝑐 )𝑃(𝑊 𝑐 ) = (0.48) ∗ (0.38) + (0.37) ∗ (0.62) = 0.41

Question: In a class, there are 4 freshman boys, 6 freshman girls, and 6 sophomore boys.
How many sophomore girls must be present if gender and class are to be independent when
a student is selected at random?
 Let 𝑛 be the number of sophomore girls, F be the event freshman and B be the event
10 10 4
boy. Then we know 𝑃(𝐹) = 16+𝑛, 𝑃(𝐵) = 16+𝑛 and 𝑃(𝐹 ∩ 𝐵) = 16+𝑛. Gender and class
will be independent if and only if 𝑃(𝐹 ∩ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐹) ∗ 𝑃(𝐵). Therefore, we must solve
4 10 10
= (16+𝑛) ∗ (16+𝑛), which implies that 𝑛 = 9 is the correct answer.
16+𝑛

Question:
Genes relating to albinism are denoted by A and a. Only those people who receive the “a”
gene from both parents will be albino. Persons having the gene pair “A, a” are normal in
appearance and, because they can pass on the trait to their offspring, are called carriers.
Suppose that a normal couple has two children, exactly one of whom is an albino. Suppose
that the nonalbino child mates with a person who is known to be a carrier for albinism.
(a) What is the probability that their first offspring is an albino?
(b) What is the conditional probability that second offspring is an albino given that their
firstborn is not?
a) Since the normal couple has one albino child, they are both carriers, having gene pair
(A, a). Hence, the nonalbino child has 1/3 chance to have gene (A, A) and 2/3 chance
to have gene (A, a). The (A, A) child has probability 0 to have an albino child and the
(A, a) child will have 1/4 chance to get an albino child when he mates with a carrier.
Therefore the first probability that the first offspring is an albino is given by the
2 1 1
following: (3) ∗ (4) = 6.

References
MATH 230: Spring 2023-2024 Tutorial 3
Ijaz Haider Naqvi

b) The probability of the first offspring is nonalbino is given by the following formula
1 5
𝑃(𝑓𝑖𝑟𝑠𝑡 𝑛𝑜𝑛𝑎𝑙𝑏𝑖𝑛𝑜) = 1 − 𝑃(𝑓𝑖𝑟𝑠𝑡 𝑎𝑙𝑏𝑖𝑛𝑜) = 1 − 6 = 6. The probability of the first
one being nonalbino and the second one being albino is given by the following
𝑃(𝑓𝑖𝑟𝑠𝑡 𝑛𝑜𝑛𝑎𝑙𝑏𝑖𝑛𝑜 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑠𝑒𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑑 𝑎𝑙𝑏𝑖𝑛𝑜) = 𝑃(𝑓𝑖𝑟𝑠𝑡 𝑛𝑜𝑛𝑎𝑙𝑏𝑖𝑛𝑜)𝑃(𝑠𝑒𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑑 𝑎𝑙𝑏𝑖𝑛𝑜) =
1 1 1
(2) ∗ (4) = 8 . Since we already know that they have one albino child, the gene of both
parents are (A, a). Therefore, the probability of having a nonalbino child is 1/2 and
the probability of having an albino child is 1/4. Thus, we can calculate that
𝑃(𝑓𝑖𝑟𝑠𝑡 𝑛𝑜𝑛𝑎𝑙𝑏𝑖𝑛𝑜 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑠𝑒𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑑 𝑎𝑙𝑏𝑖𝑛𝑜) 1/8 3
𝑃(𝑠𝑒𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑑 𝑎𝑙𝑏𝑖𝑛𝑜 | 𝑓𝑖𝑟𝑠𝑡 𝑛𝑜𝑛𝑎𝑙𝑏𝑖𝑛𝑜) = = 5/6 = 20.
𝑃(𝑓𝑖𝑟𝑠𝑡 𝑛𝑜𝑛𝑎𝑙𝑏𝑖𝑛𝑜)

Question: In successive rolls of a pair of fair dice, what is the probability of getting 2 sevens
before 6 even numbers?
1 1
 We know that 𝑃(𝑠𝑢𝑚 7) = 6 and 𝑃(𝑠𝑢𝑚 𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛) = 2. We then say that each roll that is
𝑃(𝑠𝑢𝑚 7) 1
either a 7 or an even number will be 7 with probability 𝑝 = 𝑃(𝑠𝑢𝑚 7)+𝑃(𝑠𝑢𝑚 𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛) = 4.
1 𝑖 3 7−𝑖
Therefore, ∑7𝑖=2(7𝑖) (4) (4) is the desired probability [2 or more sevens in first 7
throws].

References

You might also like