Technical Research | December 12, 2011

Daily Technical Report

Sensex (16213) / NIFTY (4867)
On Friday, our benchmark indices opened with a downside gap in line with the global cues and traded with immense volatility throughout the session to close marginally above the mentioned support level of 15962 / 4866. On the sectoral front, Capital Goods, Auto and Oil & Gas counters contributed heavily in Fridays sharp correction. The advance decline ratio was in favour of declining counters. (A=1040 D=1648). (Source www.bseindia.com)

Exhibit 1: Nifty Daily Chart

Formation
The Weekly 20 EMA is placed at 17000 / 5110 level. On the Daily chart, we are observing a negative

crossover in 3 & 8 EMA as well as in RSI momentum oscillator. The Daily chart depicts a Spinning Top formation

near 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the rise from 15478 to 17004 / 4639 to 5100.
Source: Falcon

Trading strategy:
During the week markets opened on a quiet note and then as expected moved towards the strong resistance level of 17000 / 5110. However, strong selling pressure from the bears near this resistance level led the indices to close well below the 16400 / 5000 mark. We are now observing a negative crossover in 3 & 8 EMA and RSI oscillator on the Daily chart. On the contrary, a Spinning Top Japanese candlestick pattern on the Daily chart near 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the rise from 15478 to 17004 / 4639 to 5100 indicates uncertainty among bulls and bears. Thus, if indices sustain below Fridays low of 16142 / 4841 then we may witness further selling pressure and markets are likely to drift towards 15850 - 15478 / 4754 - 4639 levels.

Actionable points:
View Resistance levels Support level Neutral 4913 5002 - 5100 4841 4754 - 4639

On the other hand, if indices manage to sustain above 16383 / 4913 level, then they are likely to bounce back towards 16863 / 5002 level. The weekly high of 17004 / 5100 is likely to act as a strong resistance in the coming trading sessions. The RBI monetary policy is scheduled on the 16th Dec. Thus we may witness increased volatility as the market approaches the event. Traders are advised to trade with caution and use strict stop losses.

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Technical Research | December 12, 2011

Bank Nifty Outlook - (8811)

Bank nifty opened with a downside gap and traded with immense volatility to close marginally above the initial opening level. We are witnessing a spinning top formation near 61.8% retracement of the rise from 8240 9273 levels. If index sustains above 8932 then the possibility cannot be ruled out. In such a scenario the pullback may extend to 9010 9050 levels. On the downside, the low of the spinning top 8690 is likely to act as support in coming trading session. Immense selling pressure may be witnessed on violation of the said support level and index may drift towards 8490 level.

Exhibit 2: Bank Nifty Daily Chart

Actionable points:
View Resistance level Support levels Neutral 9010 9050 8690 8490

Source: Falcon

Stock Recommendations:
Stock Indian Oil Corporation Ltd. (NSE Cash) Action Buy Last close Buy Above Stop Loss Target ` 270.10 ` 273 ` 190.45 ` 290

Exhibit 3: Indian Oil Corporation Ltd. (NSE Cash)

Justification On weekly chart, the stock has given confirmation of Bullish Harami Japanese candle stick pattern. We are witnessing positive crossover in ADX (9) indicator on daily chart. Buy this stock ONLY above ` 273 for a target of ` 290 in coming 2-3 weeks. Stock Bata India Ltd. (December Futures) Action Sell Last close Sell Below Stop Loss Target ` 605.05 ` 591.50 ` 613.80 ` 545

Source: Falcon

Exhibit 3: Bata India Ltd. (December Futures)

Justification On daily chart the stock has given a trend line break down with a breakaway gap. Faster time wise correction of the previous impulsive wave, indicates further weakness. Sell the stock ONLY below ` 591.5 for a target of ` 545 in coming 1-2 weeks.
Source: Falcon For Private Circulation Only |

Technical Research | December 12, 2011

Positive Bias:

Stock Name IOC ABNUVO

CMP 270.10 917.65

5 Day EMA 267.5 909.4

20 Day EMA 271.1 905.9

Expected Target 284 975

Remarks View will change below 263 View will change below 900

Negative Bias:

Stock Name Bajaj-Auto Wipro

CMP 1670.35 404.95

5 Day EMA 1696.6 400.7

20 Day EMA 1653 384.1

Expected Target 1615 384

Remarks View will change above 1719 View will change above 415

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Technical Research | December 12, 2011

Daily Pivot Levels for Nifty 50 Stocks

SCRIPS SENSEX NIFTY BANKNIFTY ACC AMBUJACEM AXISBANK BAJAJ-AUTO BHARTIARTL BHEL BPCL CAIRN CIPLA DLF DRREDDY GAIL HCLTECH HDFC HDFCBANK HEROMOTOCO HINDALCO HINDUNILVR ICICIBANK IDFC INFY ITC JINDALSTEL JPASSOCIAT KOTAKBANK LT M&M MARUTI NTPC ONGC PNB POWERGRID RANBAXY RCOM RELCAPITAL RELIANCE RELINFRA RPOWER SAIL SBIN SESAGOA SIEMENS STER SUNPHARMA SUZLON TATAMOTORS TATAPOWER TATASTEEL TCS WIPRO S2 16,006 4,799 8,569 1,136 155 960 1,619 345 256 539 296 321 205 1,505 381 398 646 434 1,987 122 381 712 107 2,624 193 503 61 466 1,197 684 941 160 257 883 96 401 72 277 742 379 80 80 1,792 170 659 98 501 22 177 92 384 1,150 395 S1 16,110 4,833 8,690 1,150 157 976 1,645 352 260 547 301 323 209 1,539 387 403 651 439 2,010 127 383 722 108 2,667 195 518 62 477 1,212 694 963 163 259 905 98 408 74 285 749 383 82 82 1,829 172 675 100 507 22 180 94 391 1,161 400 PIVOT 16,246 4,876 8,811 1,174 159 994 1,682 359 264 553 308 326 213 1,569 392 409 657 445 2,034 131 387 732 111 2,703 197 529 64 486 1,233 707 979 166 263 924 98 413 75 293 759 390 84 84 1,857 175 696 101 513 22 183 95 398 1,172 406 R1 16,350 4,909 8,932 1,188 161 1,010 1,707 366 268 561 313 328 217 1,603 398 414 662 450 2,057 137 390 741 112 2,747 199 543 65 497 1,248 716 1,001 168 265 946 99 421 78 301 766 394 86 85 1,894 177 712 103 519 23 186 97 404 1,183 411 R2 16,486 4,952 9,053 1,212 163 1,029 1,744 373 272 567 320 331 221 1,633 404 420 669 456 2,081 141 393 752 115 2,783 201 554 67 505 1,269 729 1,017 171 268 966 100 426 79 308 777 401 88 88 1,922 179 733 104 525 23 189 99 411 1,194 418

Technical Research Team

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Technical Research | December 12, 2011 Technical Report

RESEARCH TEAM
Shardul Kulkarni Sameet Chavan Sacchitanand Uttekar Mehul Kothari Ankur Lakhotia Head - Technicals Technical Analyst Technical Analyst Technical Analyst Technical Analyst

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