08 - Alternative Investments
08 - Alternative Investments
Alternative Investments
Alternative Investments 2024 Level II High Yield Notes
The following table summarizes the characteristics of six important commodity sectors:
Sector Description Storage/ Supply Demand
Transport
Energy Crude oil, refined Natural storage, Political events, Economic growth
products, natural pipes, ships new
gas technologies
Grains Corn, wheat, rice, Easy Weather, Humans, animal
soy; seasons disease, pests feed, fuel
Industrial Copper, Storage easy; Not impacted by Industrial growth
metals aluminum, nickel, transport can weather
zinc, lead, tin, iron be expensive
Livestock Poultry, sheep, Linked to grain Grain costs, Emerging markets
cattle, hogs costs weather, disease
Precious Gold, silver, Easy Not impacted by Inflation,
metals platinum weather technology,
jewelry
Softs Cotton, coffee, Difficult - Weather Wealth, emerging
(cash sugar, cocoa freshness is markets
crops) important
Commodity sectors life cycle
The following table summarizes the life cycle for six important commodity sectors (Copper
is used as an example for industrial metals; and coffee is used as an example for cash
crops):
Commodity Steps Seasons Considerations Contracts
transportation,
storage, trading
Copper Input-output Extracted year Economies of Futures
production life cycle: round. scale; difficult to contracts come
extract, grind, reduce supply due every month
concentrate, roast, when demand is of the year.
smelt, convert, refine, low.
store and transport
Livestock Time to maturity Growth is year- Historically US Ranchers and
increases with size round; weight livestock exports slaughterhouses
Cattle: birth, feeder gain is are low because trade futures to
cattle, live cattle, influenced by of high risk of hedge exposure.
slaughter. weather and spoilage; now
pastures. this risk is lower
because of
advances in
cryogenics.
Grains Planting, growth, Well defined Stored in silos Farmers and
pod/ear/head seasons and and warehouses. consumers trade
formation, harvest. growth cycles. futures to hedge
Demand is year- exposure.
round.
Coffee Harvested somewhere year-round. Two major Two futures
Cycle: Plant, three to four years to bear varieties: contracts:
fruit (cherry), harvesting is done by robusta and robusta in
hand in multiple sweeps, two to three arabica. Brazil London and
weeks to dry, hulled, sorted and bagged produces both. arabica in New
for final market. Local buyer roasts and York.
ships to retail location.
Valuation of commodities
• Stocks and bonds are financial assets that represent claims against future cash flows.
They are generally priced based on the present value of cash flows.
• On the other hand, commodities generally do not generate a stream of cash flows,
therefore their valuation cannot be done on the basis of cash flows. Instead, the value of
a commodity is the discounted value of a future price. The future price depends on
factors such as supply, demand and expected volatility.
Spot price is the current price of a commodity for immediate delivery at a specific location.
Spot prices vary across different regions based on quality and local supply demand factors.
Futures price is the price for future delivery of a commodity of a specific quality at a
specific location.
The difference between the spot price and futures price is called ‘basis’.
• When spot price is higher than futures price, the market is in backwardation and
basis is positive.
• When the spot price is lower than the futures price, the market is in contango and
basis is negative.
The price difference between two contracts of different maturities is called the 'calendar
spread'.
The total return of a fully collateralized commodity futures contract is made up of:
1. Price return is produced by a change in spot prices.
Price return = (Current spot price - Previous spot price)/Previous spot price
2. Roll return is produced by closing expiring contracts and reestablishing the
position in far-dated contracts.
Roll return is sector dependent, it is positive when futures markets are in
backwardation and negative when futures markets are in contango.
Roll return can be significant for a single period but is a small percentage of total
return over multiple periods.
Gross roll return = (Near-term contract closing price – Farther-term contract closing
price) / Near-term futures contract closing price.
Net roll return = Gross roll return × Percentage of the position in the futures
contract being rolled.
3. Collateral return is the yield on securities that the investor deposits as collateral to
establish the futures position.
Collateral return = Risk free rate return
Commodity swaps
A commodity swap is a legal contract involving the exchange of payments over multiple
dates as determined by specified reference prices or indexes relating to commodities.
Swaps offer the participant greater customization relative to a futures contract. They also
offer the advantage of providing the participant with a series of futures contracts without
him having to actually manage multiple contracts.
Types of swaps:
• Excess return: party pays a premium and receives excess return over a strike price.
• Total return: party receives total return on a commodity or index.
• Basis: payments are based on two related commodity reference prices.
• Variance: variance buyer benefits if actual variance is higher than stated variance
and the direction of price move matters.
• Volatility: similar to variance swap except based on volatility and the direction of
price moves does not matter.
In general, commodity indexes have a low correlation with traditional asset classes such as
stocks and bonds. However, the correlation across different commodity indexes (or futures
indexes) tends to be high.
There are four basic forms of real estate investments: public equity, private equity, public
debt and private debt. The following table presents some examples for each quadrant.
Public Private
Equity • Shares of REOCs • Direct investments in real estate,
• Shares of REITs, other listed including sole ownership and joint
trusts, exchange-traded funds ventures
(ETFs), and index funds • Indirect real estate ownership
through limited partnerships,
other forms of commingled funds,
or private REITS and REOCs
Debt • Mortgage REITs • Mortgages
• MBS (residential and • Private debt
commercial) • Bank debt
• Unsecured REIT debt
Each form has its own risks, expected returns, regulations, legal and market structures.
Investors can explore these characteristics and choose a quadrant that suits them.
• Private investments involve large investments and are illiquid. They also require
property management expertise.
• Public investments allow the ownership claim on a property to be divided. This
provides liquidity and diversification to the investors. Also, the properties are
professionally managed and no real estate management expertise is required on the
part of the investor.
• Equity investors take on more risk and therefore expect a higher rate of return than
debt investors. Their returns have two components: rent and appreciation of
property value.
• Debt investors get their returns from mortgage repayments and do not participate
in the appreciation of value of the underlying real estate.
The following exhibit presents major economic factors that affect demand for the major
property types.
Most REITs are structured as corporations or trusts. They are tax-efficient vehicles for
distributing earnings from rental income to shareholders.
A company must meet a number of criteria in order to qualify as a REIT. In most countries,
REITs must distribute 90%–100% of their otherwise taxable earnings, invest at least 75%
of their assets in real estate, and derive at least 75% of their income from real estate rental
income or mortgage interest.
The main types of REITs are:
• Equity REITs: Have ownership position in income-producing real estate.
• Mortgage REITs: Invest the bulk of their assets in loans secured by real estate.
Net asset value approach for REIT valuation
Net asset value per share (NAVPS) is the difference between a REIT’s assets and its
liabilities (all taken at current market values rather than accounting book values), divided
by the number of shares outstanding.
NAVPS = (Value of assets – Value of liabilities) / number of shares outstanding
The actual share price can be different from NAVPS. Shares can trade either at a discount or
a premium to NAVPS. NAVPS is the largest component of the intrinsic value of the stock.
NAVPS calculation
The current market value of real estate assets is calculated by capitalizing NOI. The market
values of other assets and liabilities are assumed to be equal to their book values.
The following exhibit provides an example of NAVPS calculation. It starts with the net
operating income (NOI) of a property and shows the various adjustments which need to be
made.
Office Equity REIT Inc. Net Asset Value Per Share Estimate
(In Thousands, Except Per Share Data)
Last 12-months real estate NOI $270,432
Less: Non-cash rents 7,667
Plus: Adjustment for full impact of acquisitions
4,534
(1)
Pro forma cash NOI for last 12 months $267,299
Plus: Next 12 months growth in NOI (2) $4,009
Estimated next 12 months cash NOI $271,308
Assumed cap rate (3) 7.00%
Office Equity REIT Inc. Net Asset Value Per Share Estimate
(In Thousands, Except Per Share Data)
Estimated value of operating real estate $3,875,829
Plus: Cash and equivalents $65,554
Plus: Land held for future development 34,566
Plus: Accounts receivable 45,667
Plus: Prepaid/Other assets (4) 23,456
Estimated gross asset value $4,045,072
Less: Total debt $1,010,988
Less: Other liabilities 119,886
Net asset value $2,914,198
Shares outstanding 55,689
(1) 50 percent of the expected return on acquisitions was made in the middle of 2010.
(2) Growth is estimated at 1.5 percent.
(3) Cap rate is based on recent comparable transactions in the property market.
(4) This figure does not include intangible assets.
NAVPS is calculated to be $2,914,198 divided by 55,689 shares, which equals $52.33 per
share.
2. Portfolio managers can put REIT valuations into context with other investment
alternatives. This makes it easier to compare REITs with other investments.
3. FFO estimates are readily available.
4. Multiples can be used in conjunction with growth rates and leverage levels for
relative value analysis.
Drawbacks:
1. Does not capture the intrinsic value of all real estate assets. For example, empty
buildings do not contribute to FFO but have value.
2. P/FFO does not adjust for recurring capital expenditures. Although P/AFFO
considers this, there are wide variations in estimates and assumptions.
3. One-time gains/losses create issues with this model.
The following exhibit summarizes some of the key differences, advantages, and
disadvantages of public and private real estate investing.
Equity strategies
o Pairs trading: Involves identifying similar under and overvalued equities that
have been historically correlated.
o Stub trading: Involves buying and selling stock of a parent company and its
subsidiaries.
Multi-class trading: Involves buying and selling different classes of shares of
the same company, such as voting and non-voting shares.
• Typically, portfolios are constructed using quantitative methodologies.
• Since many beta risks are hedged away, EMN strategies generally use high leverage.
• This strategy tends to produce modest returns with low volatility. Its risk-return
profile is similar to fixed-income.
• These strategies generate alpha without accepting any beta exposure.
Event-driven strategies
Merger arbitrage
• This a relatively liquid strategy because the underlying securities are liquid.
Leverage is used frequently to enhance returns.
• This strategy has left-tail risk; if the merger fails, then the losses can be substantial.
This risk increases in market stress periods.
• The merger arbitrage strategy can be viewed as selling insurance on the acquisition.
If the merger succeeds, then the hedge fund manager collects the spread for taking
on event risk. If the merger fails, then the hedge fund manager faces losses on his
positions.
• Alpha is generated by identifying suitable deals.
• While identifying suitable deals, a manager has to be careful about cross-border
deals and deals involving vertical integration. These deals carry higher risks and
therefore offer higher returns.
o Cross-border M&A typically involves two sets of government approvals.
o M&A deals involving vertical integration often face an anti-trust inquiry.
Distressed securities
• Distressed securities strategies focus on firms that either are in bankruptcy, facing a
potential bankruptcy or under financial stress. The securities of such companies
may be trading at a significant discount to its eventual work-out value.
• The bankruptcy process typically results in either: liquidation or firm re-
organization.
o In a liquidation, the company’s assets are sold off, and the proceeds are
distributed amongst different stakeholders based on their priority of claims.
o In a reorganization, the company’s capital structure is reorganized. Current
debtholders may exchange their debt for new equity shares. The existing
equity may be canceled and new equity issued. This new equity can be sold
to new investors to raise funds to improve the company’s financial condition.
• The strategy offers higher returns and higher volatility as compared to other event-
driven strategies.
• The strategy is long-biased as it involves identifying undervalued securities and
taking long positions in them.
• It is a highly illiquid strategy. Pricing may involve ‘mark-to-model’ with return
smoothening.
• Since the strategy is already very risky, the use of leverage is moderate to low.
o For convertible bonds with high bond conversion prices relative to the
conversion value, the delta will be close to 1.
o For convertibles with low bond conversion prices relative to the conversion
value, the delta will be closer to 0.
• The strategy will be profitable if the realized equity volatility exceeds the implied
volatility of the convertible’s embedded option.
Opportunistic strategies
• There are multiple ways in which volatility trading strategies can be implemented:
Exchange-traded options, Over the counter options, VIX futures or options on VIX
futures, OTC volatility swap or variance swap.
Reinsurance/Life settlements
• A life settlement hedge fund manager analyzes and buys pools of life insurance
contracts offered by third-party brokers and effectively becomes the beneficiary.
The hedge fund manager looks for policies with the following traits:
o Surrender value being offered to the insured individual is relatively low.
o Ongoing premium payments are also relatively low.
o Probability is relatively high that the insured person will die sooner than
predicted by standard actuarial methods.
• A major benefit of this strategy is that it has no correlation with other hedge fund
strategies.
Multi-manager strategies
Fund-of-funds
• A fund-of-funds aggregates capital from different investors and allocates it to a
portfolio of separate, individual hedge funds running different strategies.
• FoF managers can pursue strategic allocation and tactical reallocation across
strategies.
• FoF offers better liquidity relative to individual hedge funds.
• However, an investor has to pay a double layer of fees when investing in the FoF.
Also, FoF’s cannot net performance fees across managers.
• FoFs offer stable, low volatility returns as compared to individual hedge funds. They
use a moderate level of leverage.
Multi-strategy hedge funds
• Multi-strategy hedge funds combine multiple strategies under the same structure.
• A multi-strategy hedge fund can reallocate capital to different strategies more
quickly and efficiently compared to FoF managers.
• The fee structure for these funds varies, but it is generally more investor-friendly as
compared to FoFs. This is primarily due to two reasons:
o Only one layer of fees is applicable.
o The general partner is responsible for netting risk.
• Multi-strategy hedge funds have generally outperformed FoFs, but they also had
higher variances and occasional large losses.
• These funds offer greater transparency as compared to FoFs.
• They use significantly more leverage relative to FoFs.
• To analyze the exposure to different risk factors, conditional linear factor models
can be used.
• A basic form of a conditional risk factor model can be expressed as:
(Return on HFi)t = αi + βi,1(Factor 1)t + βi,2(Factor 2)t + … + βi,K(Factor K)t +
Dtβi,1(Factor 1)t + Dtβi,2(Factor 2)t + … + Dtβi,K(Factor K)t + (error)i,t
• To build the conditional factor risk model, the first step is to identify a
comprehensive set of risk factors.
• A four-step process called ‘stepwise regression’ is used to develop the model
further. With this process, we are less likely to include highly correlated risk factors.
• The curriculum uses such a model that incorporates four factors for assessing risk
exposures in both normal periods and market stress/crisis periods: equity risk,
credit risk, currency risk, and volatility risk.