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FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS:
Fundamental analysis is a study of certain factors, such as financial statements, external
factors, news, events and trends in the industry to determine the true value of a stock.
Fundamental analysis can be either top-down or bottom-up. An investor who follows the top-
down approach starts the analysis with the consideration of the health of the overall
economy. Alternatively, there is the bottom-up approach. Instead of starting the analysis
from the larger scale, the bottom-up approach immediately dives into the analysis of
individual stocks.
Top-down Analysis
Bottom-Up Analysis
EIC Framework
EIC (Economy, Industry, Company) analysis framework is a fundamental approach used in
the investment decision-making process, providing a structured way to examine the
macroeconomic environment, the specific industry, and individual companies.
1. Economic analysis
Economic analysis is one of the studies that form part of the fundamental analysis. This
relates to study about the economy in detail and analyses whether economic conditions are
favorable for the companies to prosper or not.
1. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) - GDP indicates the rate of growth of the
economy. GDP represents the aggregate value of the goods and services produced in
the economy. GDP consists of personal consumption expenditure, gross private
domestic investment and government expenditure on goods and services and net
export of goods and services.
2. Savings And Investment - It is obvious that growth requires investment which in
turn requires substantial amount of domestic savings. Stock market is a channel
through which the savings of the investors are made available to the corporate
bodies. Savings are distributed over various assets like equity shares, deposits,
mutual fund units, real estate and bullion. The saving and investment patterns of the
public affect the stock to a great extent.
3. Inflation - Along with the growth of GDP, if the inflation rate also increases, then
the real rate of growth would be very little. The demand in the consumer product 7
industry is significantly affected. The industries which come under the government
price control policy may lose the market, for example Sugar. The government
control over this industry, affects the price of the sugar and thereby the profitability
of the industry itself. If there is a mild level of inflation, it is good to the stock
market but high rate of inflation is harmful to the stock market
4. Interest Rates - The interest rate affects the cost of financing to the firms. A
decrease in interest rate implies lower cost of finance for firms and more
profitability. More money is available at a lower interest rate for the brokers who
are doing business with borrowed money.
5. Budget - The budget draft provides an elaborate account of the government
revenues and expenditures. A deficit budget may lead to high rate of inflation
and adversely affect the cost of production. Surplus budget may result in deflation.
Hence, balanced budget is highly favorable to the stock market.
6. The Tax Structure - Every year in March, the business community eagerly awaits
the Government's announcement regarding the tax policy. Concessions and
incentives given to a certain industry encourages investment in that particular
industry. Tax reliefs given to savings encourage savings.
7. The Balance Of Payment - The balance of payment is the record of a country's
money receipts from and payments abroad. The difference bt6ween receipts and
payments may be surplus or deficit. Balance of payment is a measure of the strength
of rupee on external account. If the deficit increases, the rupee may depreciate
against other currencies, thereby, affecting the cost of imports. The industries
involved in the export and import are considerably affected by the changes in
foreign exchange rate. The volatility of the foreign exchange rate affects the
investment of the foreign institutional investors in the Indian stock market. A
favorable balance of payment renders a positive effect on the stock market.
8. Monsoon And Agriculture - Agriculture is directly and indirectly linked with the
industries. For example, Sugar, Cotton, Textile and Food processing industries
depend upon agriculture for raw-material. Fertilizer and insecticide industries are
supplying inputs to the agriculture. A good monsoon leads to higher demand for
input and results in bumper crop. This would lead to optimism in the stock market.
When the monsoon is bad, agricultural and hydro power production would suffer.
They cast a shadow on the share market.
9. Infrastructure Facilities - Infrastructure facilities are essential for the growth of
industrial and agricultural sector. A wide net work of communication system is a
must for the growth of the economy. Regular supply of power without any power
cut would boost the production. Banking and financial sectors also should be
sound enough to provide adequate support to the industry and agriculture. Good
infrastructure facilities affect the stock market favorably. In India even though
infrastructure facilities have been developed, still they are not adequate. The
government has liberalized its policy regarding the communication, transport and
power sector. For example, power sector has been opened up to the foreign investors
with assured rates of returns.
10. Demographic Factors - The demographic data provides details about the
population by age, occupation, literacy and geographic location. This is needed to
forecast the demand for the consumer goods. The population by age indicates the
availability of able work force.
2. Industry analysis
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Industry analysis is a type of investment research that begins by focusing on the
status of an industry. The purpose is to predict the profitability and business growth of the
industry in the future. Industry analysis covers sales and earnings trend, government policy
on the industry, competitive conditions, stock price trend, and so on.
TYPES OF INDUSTRY ANALYSIS
There are three commonly used and important methods of performing industry analysis.
The three methods are:
1. Competitive Forces Model (Porter’s 5 Forces)
2. Broad Factors Analysis (PEST Analysis)
3. SWOT Analysis
One of the most famous models ever developed for industry analysis, famously known as
Porter’s 5 Forces. According to Porter, analysis of the five forces gives an accurate
impression of the industry and makes analysis easier
The number of participants in the industry and their respective market shares are a direct
representation of the competitiveness of the industry. These are directly affected by all the
factors mentioned above. Lack of differentiation in products tends to add to the intensity of
competition. High exit costs such as high fixed assets, government restrictions, labor
unions, etc. also make the competitors fight the battle a little harder.
2. Threat of potential entrants
This indicates the ease with which new firms can enter the market of a particular industry.
If it is easy to enter an industry, companies face the constant risk of new competitors. If the
entry is difficult, whichever company enjoys little competitive advantage reaps the benefits
for a longer period. Also, under difficult entry circumstances, companies face a constant
set of competitors.
3. Bargaining power of suppliers
This refers to the bargaining power of suppliers. If the industry relies on a small number of
suppliers, they enjoy a considerable amount of bargaining power. This can particularly
affect small businesses because it directly influences the quality and the price of the final
product. 9
4. Bargaining power of buyers
The complete opposite happens when the bargaining power lies with the customers. If
consumers/buyers enjoy market power, they are in a position to negotiate lower prices,
better quality, or additional services and discounts. This is the case in an industry with
more competitors but with a single buyer constituting a large share of the industry’s sales.
5. Threat of substitute goods/services
The industry is always competing with another industry producing a similar substitute
product. Hence, all firms in an industry have potential competitors from other industries.
This takes a toll on their profitability because they are unable to charge exorbitant prices.
Substitutes can take two forms – products with the same function/quality but lesser price,
or products of the same price but of better quality or providing more utility.
II. Broad Factors Analysis (PESTLE Analysis)
Broad Factors Analysis, also commonly called the PESTLE Analysis stands for Political,
Economic, Social and Technological. PESTLE analysis is a useful framework for
analyzing the external environment.
1. Political Factors:
Political factors that impact an industry include specific policies and regulations related to
things like taxes, environmental regulation, tariffs, trade policies, labor laws, ease of doing
business, and overall political stability.
2. Economic Factors:
The economic forces that have an impact include inflation, exchange rates (FX), interest
rates, GDP growth rates, conditions in the capital markets (ability to access capital), etc.
3. Social Factors:
The social impact on an industry refers to trends among people and includes things such as
population growth, demographics (age, gender, etc.), and trends in behavior such as health,
fashion, and social movements.
4. Technological Factors:
The technological aspect of PEST analysis incorporates factors such as advancements and
developments that change the way a business operates and the ways in which people live
their lives (e.g., the advent of the internet).
5. Legal Factors:
The legal aspects checks how labor laws, employment contracts, industry regulations and
other legal requirements can influence a company.
6. Environmental Factors:
This analysis studies the potential impacts of environmental issues , such as climate change
on the business.
III. SWOT Analysis
The industry life cycle refers to the evolution of an industry or business through four
stages based on the business characteristics commonly displayed in each phase.
Phases:
1. Introduction Phase
The introduction, or startup, phase involves the development and early marketing of a new
product or service. Innovators often create new businesses to enable the production and
proliferation of the new offering. Information about the products and industry participants is
often limited, so demand tends to be unclear. During this stage, consumers of the goods and
services need to learn more about them, while the new providers are still developing and
honing the offering.
Example: Artifitial intelligence industry
2. Growth Phase
In this second phase, consumers have come to understand the value of the new offering,
business, or industry. Demand grows rapidly. A handful of important players usually
becomes apparent, and they compete to establish a share of the new market. Immediate
profits usually are not a top priority as companies spend on research and development or
marketing.
Example: Computer industry
3. Maturity Phase
The maturity phase begins with a shakeout period, during which sales growth slows, focus
shifts toward expense reduction, and consolidation occurs (as companies begin to merge or
acquire each other). Some firms attain economies of scale, hampering the sustainability of
smaller competitors. Growth can continue.
Example: Food and agriculture industry
4. Decline Phase
The decline phase marks the end of an industry's or business' ability to support growth.
Obsolescence and evolving end markets (end users) negatively impact demand, leading to
declining revenues. This creates margin pressure, forcing weaker competitors out of the
industry.
3. Company analysis
The qualitative analysis captures the company’s aspects or risks difficult to measure
in numbers- such as management competencies and credibility, competitive strategies,
R&D capabilities, brand recall, and others.
a) Business Model: A business model describes the company’s plans for earning
revenues, its products and services, the target market so as to maintain its
profitability. Companies need to constantly update, innovate and be able to
withstand any technological disruption, adopt efficient marketing and business
strategies for their smooth functioning without which they may run into losses and
eventually get wiped out from the market.
b) Competitive Advantage: Investors should usually prefer to invest in those
companies that have been able to develop competitive advantages for themselves
in terms of cost advantage, quality, brand, distribution network, etc. This helps
the company to create an economic trench around the business, thus helping the
company to keep competitors at bay and enjoy longevity, growth, profits, and
dominate the market share. A company with a competitive advantage usually
generates greater value not only for the company but also for its shareholders,
over the long term.
c) Management: Sound management with strong credibility always works for the
betterment of the company and its employees and also generates wealth for the
shareholders. Thus, it is always in the interest of the shareholders to be associated
with trustworthy and competent management rather than with management having
questionable credibility.
d) Corporate Governance: This is the framework of rules, practices, and processes
which direct and control the firms as well as involves balancing the interests
between management, directors, and stakeholders. Investors should always invest
in companies that are run ethically, fairly, transparently, and efficiently and whose
management respects its shareholders’ rights and interests.
II. Quantitative Fundamentals:
These are the measurable factors that influence the value of a firm. The biggest source of
quantitative data is Financial Statements, analyzing which helps investors to make better
investment decisions.
a) The Balance Sheet
This statement records a company’s assets, liabilities, and equity at a particular point
in time. It shows investors the financial structure of a company, listing down what a
company owns and owes, thus helping to determine a company’s real worth.
b) Income Statement
It reports the financial performance of a company over a period of time. Publicly listed
companies present their Income Statements quarterly or annually. It provides investors
with an insight into how the net revenues realized by a company are transformed into net
earnings (profit or loss).
c) Cash Flow Statement
This is a very important financial statement, as it shows the true cash or liquidity position
of a company. It provides information on the cash inflows and outflows over a period of
time. It is difficult to manipulate the cash position of a company; therefore it is used as a
concrete measure of a company’s performance.
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Valuation of Securities
DEBENTURES
The word ‘debenture’ it self is a derivation of the Latin word ‘debere’ which means
to borrow or loan. Debentures are written instruments of debt that companies issue under
their common seal. They are similar to a loan certificate.
A debenture is a type of bond or other debt instrument that is unsecured by
collateral. Since debentures have no collateral backing, they must rely on the
creditworthiness and reputation of the issuer for support.
Features
3. Cost of debenture is relatively lower than preference shares and equity shares.
Redeemable Debentures: These debentures are those debentures that are due on
the cessation of the time frame either in a lump-sum or in instalments during the
lifetime of the enterprise. Debentures can be reclaimed either at a premium or at
par.
Irredeemable Debentures: These debentures are also called as Perpetual
Debentures as the company doesn’t give any attempt for the repayment of money
acquired or borrowed by circulating such debentures. These debentures are
repayable on the closing up of an enterprise or on the expiry (end) of a long period.
3. From the Point of view of Convertibility
Registered Debentures: These debentures are such debentures within which all
details comprising addresses, names and particulars of holding of the debenture
holders are filed in a register kept by the enterprise. Such debentures can be moved
only by performing a normal transfer deed.
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Bearer Debentures: These debentures are debentures which can be transferred
by way of delivery and the company does not keep any record of the debenture
holders Interest on debentures is paid to a person who produces the interest coupon
attached to such debentures.
PREFERENCE SHARES
3. Shareholders have a right to claim the assets in case of a wind up of the company.
1. Permanent Shares: Equity shares are permanent in nature. The shares are
permanent assets of a company. And are returned only when the company winds
up.
2. Significant Returns: Equity shares have the potential to generate significant returns
to the shareholders. However, these are risky investment options. In other words,
equity shares are highly volatile. The price movements can be drastic and are
dependent on multiple internal and external factors. Therefore, investors with
suitable risk tolerance levels should only consider investing in these.
3. Dividends: Equity shareholders share the profits of a company. In other words, a
company may distribute dividends to its shareholders from its annual profits.
However, a company is under no obligation to distribute dividends. In case a
company doesn’t make good profits and doesn’t have surplus cash flow, it can
choose not to give dividends to its shareholders.
4. Voting Rights: Most equity shareholders have voting rights. This allows them to
select the people who will govern the company. Choosing effective managers assists
the company to enhance its annual turnover. As a result, investors can receive
higher average dividend income.
5. Additional Profits: Equity shareholders are eligible for additional profits a
company makes. It, in turn, increases the wealth of the investor.
6. Liquidity: Equity shares are highly liquid investments. The shares are trade on the
stock exchanges. As a result, you can buy and sell the share anytime during trading
hours. Therefore, one does not have to worry about liquidating their shares.
7. Limited Liability: Losses a company makes doesn’t affect the ordinary
shareholders. In other words, the shareholders are not liable for the company’s debt
obligations. The only effect is the decrease in the price of the stocks. This will have
an impact on the return on investment for a shareholder.
The following are the risks and disadvantages of investing in equity shares:
1. Company’s Performance: The performance of the share largely depends on the
company’s performance. When the company is not performing and is unable to make
profits, the equity shareholder will not receive any dividends.
2. Capital Loss: Since equity shares are high-risk, high-reward investments, the
probability of capital loss is also high. Due to many internal and external factors, the
share price fluctuates. A negative impact may lead to a capital loss for the investors.
3. Volatility: Volatility in share prices can be for many reasons. The market sentiments
drive the share prices up and down. Timing the markets is an impossible strategy to
adopt. The share prices fluctuate within seconds and microseconds.
1. Authorized Share Capital- This amount is the highest amount an organization can
issue. This amount can be changed time as per the companies recommendation and with
the help of few formalities.
2. Issued Share Capital- This is the approved capital which an organization gives to the
investors.
3. Subscribed Share Capital- This is a portion of the issued capital which an investor
accepts and agrees upon.
4. Paid Up Capital- This is a section of the subscribed capital, that the investors give.
Paid- up capital is the money that an organization really invests in the company’s
operation.
5. Right Share- These are those type of share that an organization issue to their existing
stockholders. This type of share is issued by the company to preserve the proprietary
rights of old investors.
6. Bonus Share- When a business split the stock to its stockholders in the dividend form,
we call it a bonus share.
7. Sweat Equity Share- This type of share is allocated only to the outstanding workers or
executives of an organization for their excellent work on providing intellectual property
rights to an organization.
Valuation of Equity 17
The Dividend Discount Method is one of the popular methods for finding out
the price of the stocks and helping investors be aware of the expected returns. This is
based on assumptions, which makes it far off from any kind of reality check against the
estimated stock prices. The use of this model is recommended to investors and entities
operating on a large scale.
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