Security Risk Assessment – Myanmar

RISK RATING Road Traffic Accident

HIGH • Many vehicles, including taxis and buses, are in a poor mechanical state, and serious road traffic accidents are common.
• Travel by road between many areas outside the key destinations of Yangon, Mandalay, Bago and Irrawaddy regions is restricted.

Myanmar is assessed overall as MEDIUM Environment & Infrastructure

risk. • Myanmar is seismically active, and earthquakes have the potential to cause major damage to local infrastructure and endanger personal safety.
• Flooding and landslides regularly occur during the rainy season between May and October, damaging infrastructure and posing a threat to personnel across Myanmar.
The analysis identified 7 key safety and • The cyclone season in Myanmar normally runs from April to October.
security risks in the region including: • Myanmar has poor fire safety standards, as demonstrated by frequent incidents of fire in major urban areas which are blamed on a failure to follow fire prevention
4 HIGH risks: RTA, Environment & instructions. Large markets in Yangon are also known to be prone to fires.
infrastructure
Kidnap
3 MEDIUM risks: Kidnap; Political
Violence & Civil Unrest; Medical; Crime; • There is a notable threat of kidnapping in Myanmar’s poorly policed and sparsely populated north-western and north-eastern border areas, which have a high level of
and Environment militant activity.
• Main targets include the military, police and local nationals.
All risks were subjected to a vulnerability
Terrorism & Political Violence
analysis and identified a series of
mitigation measures for each. The • Long-standing separatist insurgencies and ethnic tensions pose a significant security threat to travellers in some parts of Myanmar.
recommended mitigation measures are
included in this report.
Risk Ratings Civil Unrest
• Protests attracting thousands of people occur regularly in Yangon over the delivery of public services and poor socioeconomic conditions, and often descend into violent
Road Traffic Accident HIGH rioting and clashes with police.
Environment & HIGH
• Civil unrest is more likely following military coup on 1 February 2021.
Infrastructure
Crime
Kidnap MEDIUM • Opportunistic non-violent crimes occur in major urban areas, but violent crime in Myanmar is not frequent.
Terrorism & Political HIGH
• High levels of corruption among the security forces means most crimes are likely to go unreported or are not investigated thoroughly.
Violence
Medical
Civil Unrest HIGH
• Basic medical facilities and treatment are available in the urban centre of Yangon, but medical care is not easily accessible in rural areas.
Crime MEDIUM • The quality of treatment is below Western standards, there is little to no ambulance service, and in many cases patients are required to pay in cash before receiving
medical care.
Medical MEDIUM
• Medicines are often in short supply and about 30 percent are believed to be counterfeit.
 Risk Matrix
RISK
RATING RISK LEVEL DESCRIPTION

Certain
C D D E E
CRITICAL Ongoing operations are unsustainable and projects may be suspended for indefinite periods. Travel
into a Black area is only allowed in exceptional circumstances (critical programming or staff
Risk Level

Highly
Likely
B B D5 D E evacuation). This stage is declared by the organisation's management team in consultation with
Probability E Critical Spearfish. If the risk is country wide, all international staff should be evacuated and national staff
6C 1 4 D High relocated to the safest area within the country.

Unlikely Possible Likely

B B D D
2 C Medium
3C B Low HIGH Only essential operational travel should be considered and operations may be suspended at short
A B B D
7 A Negligible notice. This stage is declared by the Country/Project Manager in consultation with Spearfish. The
Country/Project Office must temporally relocate all non-essential staff to safe areas & and be
prepared to hibernate operations. If the risk is country wide, non-essential international staff and
A A B B C
dependants should be prepared to evacuate at short notice. National staff should be given the
opportunity to relocate to home, or safe, areas.
Negligible M inor M oderate Severe Critical

Impact

Threat Scenario Impact Probability Risk MEDIUM There must be specific planning to mitigate identified security threats; there may be strict
operational and travel restrictions on staff at times. Travel into the country may be restricted by the
1 Road Traffic Accident 4 Severe 3 Likely High Country/Project Manager for period of time. Essential staff have been identified and some non-
2 Environment & Infrastructure 4 Severe 3 Likely High essential staff may be relocated from affected areas.
3 Kidnap 4 Severe 2 Possible Medium
4 Political Violence & Terrorism 4 Severe 3 Likely High
LOW Standard Operating Procedures (SOP’s) are in place to manage security and there may be some
5 Civil Unrest 3 Moderate 4 Highly Likely High operational and travel restrictions placed on staff.
6 Crime 3 Moderate 3 Likely Medium
7 Medical 4 Severe 2 Possible Medium NEGLIGIBLE Normal security precautions for operations and travel are required.

RATING DESCRIPTION OF PROBABILITY RATING DESCRIPTION IMPACT

CERTAIN Will occur / on-going active threat CRITICAL Death or severe injury, loss of vital equipment, critical costs / bankruptcy cancellation of activities

SEVERE Severe injury or possible death, loss of important equipment, severe costs to the programme
HIGHLY LIKELY A very high probability of occurring major disruption of activities
LIKELY A high probability of occurring MODERATE Injury, loss of equipment, moderate costs to the programme delays in activities
POSSIBLE A reasonable probability of occurring MINOR Possible injury possible equipment minor costs limited delays in activities
UNLIKELY Unlikely to occur NEGLIGIBLE No or minor injuries, no or minor loss of equipment, negligible costs, minor disruption to activities
 Risk Analysis
Road Traffic Accident Threat Description: Mitigation Measures:
Impact 4 Traffic accidents pose a significant threat due to unsafe • Vehicles to be well maintained and in road worthy condition: rental vehicles must be late model units and be fit
driving practices and poor vehicle maintenance. Roads are for task–staff should be briefed on what to look for when hiring a vehicle in a remote location.
Probability 3 poorly maintained and mostly unpaved. In rural areas, • Spare parts and First Aid kits should be in check
night-time driving is especially dangerous as vehicles • Self Drive authorisation and testing must follow your organistaion’s guidelines
Risk HIGH
frequently have no lights and there may be livestock and • Training of drivers in advanced First Aid should be a priority.
people on roads. Unrest in the region often disrupts road • Training of drivers on changing of essential parts of vehicles if required.
transport due to block roads and security checkpoints. • MedEvac plans should be in place for all remote and urban locations. This should include ambulance
mobilization.

Environment & Threat Description: Mitigation Measures:

Infrastructure
Impact 4 Myanmar is seismically active and subject to frequent earthquakes and • CIM Plans and SOP for actions relating to earthquake, flood and air pollution should be known to
tremors of varying magnitude, potentially causing major damage to local all Staff.
Probability 3 infrastructure and endangering life. • Hibernation and MedEvac Plans should be known to all staff.
• Hibernation stores should be in place in accommodation and residences.
Risk HIGH Flooding and landslides regularly occur during the rainy season between • Redundant communications should be distributed and tested monthly.
May and October across Myanmar. Yangon is regularly flooded, disrupting • Advanced first aid courses should be scheduled.
traffic and increasing the risk of disease outbreaks due to poor sanitation Fire Safety:
infrastructure. • Ensure a fire alarm/smoke alarm system is operable within the offices and residences.
• Ensure a fire line or extinguisher point is maintained.
The country is also particularly vulnerable to tropical storms and cyclone, • Fire safety plan is communicated to all personnel by the Office Manager.
with the cyclone season in Myanmar normally runs from April to October. • Ensure that waste management is operable to reduce the fuel element for fire
• Buildings utilised as offices must be fully assessed prior to agreeing rental.
Poor fire safety poses a significant threat to operations in Myanmar. Poor • Monitor the DMH website (https://www.moezala.gov.mm/) for information on prevailing weather
urban planning and lack of enforcement of building safety regulations conditions.
increase the risk of fires, especially in densely populated areas. Faulty
wiring is one of the major sources of fires, particularly in urban areas .
 Risk Analysis
Kidnap Threat Description: Mitigation Measures:

Impact 4 The threat of kidnapping is moderate across most of • Staff should maintain a low profile; avoid travel in darkness; only using trusted drivers / taxis; not set patterns and
Myanmar. There is an elevated threat in Kachin and routines; keep in pairs or teams at all times.
Probability 2 Shan, the poorly policed border states which have high • Local knowledge of the operational context must be maintained by staff at all times: ability to seek information
levels of militant activity. Most kidnappings are politically from humanitarian and other agencies is VITAL.
Risk MEDIUM motivated, primarily targeting military and police. Foreign • Any event having a potential to change the security situation within your operational areas must always be
nationals have been infrequently targeted in financially communicated to project management so that appropriate steps can be taken.
motivated kidnap-for-ransom incidents. • CIM plans should be made available to all staff and appropriate training conducted. Your organisation should
support the Country Manager and key project staff with appropriate K&R training.
Organised crime and human trafficking is a serious • The team will check for third party awareness, and should be discrete when discussing itineraries and planned
problem in Myanmar. routes.

Terrorism & Political Threat Description: Mitigation Measures:

Violence

Impact 4 Local armed groups are known to operate in most states. Shan and Kachin states • Local knowledge of the operational context must be maintained by staff at all times: the
experience constant fighting between Myanmar forces and rebel groups. Fighting ability to seek information from humanitarian actors and other agencies is VITAL.
Probability 3 frequently displaces large swathes of the population and disrupts travel in the region • Emergency and relocation plans should be made available to all staff and appropriate
by prompting widespread road closures enforced by the military. The armed groups training conducted.
and the military are also known to extort locals for information and punish them if they • All staff should adopt a low profile, to include the choice of appropriate vehicles, dress,
Risk HIGH
are suspected of being aligned with the other side. activities and equipment.
• Installations affiliated with the ruling military State Administration Council (SAC),
People in Yangon (Yangon region) should exercise caution following an explosion including military, police and local administrative buildings or personnel, are often targeted
near Aung Yadana Hospital in Thingangyun township in late May 2021. The blast in bombings. Minimise time spent in the vicinity of these locations as a precaution.
occurred at around 17.50 (local time) and injured at least one person. Reports • Maintain heightened awareness in public spaces, especially in the vicinity of parked
indicate the security forces have cordoned off the affected area. Although such vehicles or accessible containers such as rubbish bins, due to the threat of hidden
explosions generally do not target civilians, they sometimes occur away from obvious explosives.
or identifiable targets. • Incidental risks remain elevated amid evolving anti-military violence; reconfirm routes,
feasibility of essential movement
Anti-military groups are expected to continue to carry out explosions around buildings
or businesses linked to the military. Their modus operandi has shifted in recent
weeks and such incidents are increasingly occurring during business hours in central
areas of the commercial capital Yangon (Yangon region) and Mandalay (Mandalay
region), heightening the incidental risks to bystanders.
 Risk Analysis
Civil Unrest Threat Description: Mitigation Measures:

Impact 3 Civil unrest and political demonstrations are common in Yangon, • Avoid all large public crowds, including political gatherings and peaceful protests.
Rakhine, Shan and Kachin, often protesting over human rights • Any event having a potential to change the security situation within the operational areas must be
Probability 4 issues. Protests can attract thousands and often lead to clashes with communicated to management so that appropriate steps can be taken.
police. The likelihood of civil unrest is higher following a military • Increased vigilance should be implemented during periods of political tension, such as elections.
Risk HIGH coup against the government on 1 February. • Staff should be aware of places that may act as focal points for spontaneous unrest including police
stations, government facilities, places of worship, and public squares known for political protests.
Violence typically increases around weekends and on sensitive
dates, such as 1 June (the four-month anniversary of the military
takeover).

Threat: Crime Threat Description: Mitigation Measures:

Impact 3 Anecdotal evidence suggests occasional • Avoid crowded areas, tourist attractions and areas known to frequented heavily by members of the international
instances of violent crime against foreigners. community.
Probability 3 • Be cognisant of the perception of wealth with regards to possessions carried.
The most common crimes are non-violent • Gender safety training should be considered for all staff.
Risk MEDIUM crimes of opportunity (pick pocketing, theft of • Minimise the amount of valuables and cash carried.
unattended possessions in public places or • Seek advice from local staff as to local areas considered unsafe.
hotel rooms, bag snatching, gem/confidence • Be prepared to hand over valuables if challenged in a threatening way.
scams). • Consider carrying an imitation "robber" wallet with a small amount of cash to hand over if challenged.
• Keep copies of important documents separate from originals.

Threat: Medical Threat Description: Mitigation Measures:

Impact 4 Competent medical advice and treatment may not be available outside Yangon Staff should be aware of the symptoms and mitigation of health related illness and the
and Mandalay, and any services provided will not be to the standard of those in likelihood of issues particularly in the field – see attached.
Probability 2 the UK. • First aid packs have been checked for serviceability.
Risk MEDIUM Air pollution can occur in major urban areas. This may aggravate bronchial, sinus • The team has ascertained availability of emergency services in case of medical
or asthma conditions. emergency.
Cases of cholera have been reported in some areas of Myanmar. • Persons carrying medications have more than enough for the whole trip and appropriate
Poor sanitation and eating contaminated food can increase the risk of diarrheal storage means.
illnesses. • The team has self-disclosed to fellow team members relevant medical conditions / history
Dengue fever is present in Myanmar, including in the regions of Yangon and in event unable to recount details themselves.
Mandalay. • Any complicated medical history / medication have had their cases consulted by GP /
medical specialist for suitability to deploy.
• Records / letters with history / medication in local language are being carried.