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Bayes

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19 views5 pages

Bayes

Uploaded by

Varalakshmi KC
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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 Bayes’ theorem describes the probability of occurrence of an event related to

any condition which is also called as probability of “causes”.


 Conditional probability is known as the possibility of an event happening, based on the
existence of a previous event. It is calculated by multiplying the probability of the
preceding event by the renewed probability of the succeeding, or conditional, event.
 Conditional Probability: Bayes Theorem

Bayes Theorem Statement


 Let E1, E2,…, En be a set of events associated with a sample space S, where all
the events E1, E2,…, En have nonzero probability of occurrence and they form a
partition of S. Let A be any event associated with S, then according to Bayes
theorem,

for any k = 1, 2, 3, …., n

Terminologies:

Hypotheses: The events E1, E2,… En is called the hypotheses

Priori Probability: The probability P(Ei) is considered as the priori probability of


hypothesis Ei

Posteriori Probability: The probability P(Ei|A) is considered as the posteriori probability


of hypothesis Ei
Bayes’ theorem is also called the formula for the probability of “causes”.

Hence, the above formula gives the probability of a particular Ei (i.e. a “Cause”), given
that the event A has occurred.

Naive Bayes classifiers


 Is an algorithms based on Bayes’ Theorem.
 Despite “naive” assumption of feature independence, these classifiers are utilized
for their simplicity and efficiency in machine learning.

What is Naive Bayes classifiers?

 Naive Bayes classifiers are a collection of classification algorithms based on


Bayes’ Theorem.
 Here every pair of features being classified is independent of each other.

Why it is called Naive Bayes?

 “Naive” indicates that simplifying assumption made by Naïve Bayes classifier.


 The classifier assumes that features used to describe an observation are
conditionally independent, given the class label.
 “Bayes” refers to Reverend Thomas Bayes, an 18th-century statistician and
theologian who formulated Bayes’ theorem.
 The dataset is divided into 2 parts - feature matrix and the response vector.
 Feature matrix contains all the vectors(rows) of dataset in which each
vector(column) consists of the value of dependent features. Example: features
are ‘Outlook’, ‘Temperature’, ‘Humidity’ and ‘Wind’.
 Response vector contains the value of class variable(prediction or output) for
each row of feature matrix. Example: ‘Play Tennis’.

Assumption of Naive Bayes


 Feature independence: The features of the data are conditionally independent
of each other, given the class label.
 Continuous features are normally distributed: If a feature is continuous, then
it is assumed to be normally distributed within each class.
 Discrete features have multinomial distributions: If a feature is discrete, then
it is assumed to have a multinomial distribution within each class.
 Features are equally important: All features are assumed to contribute equally
to the prediction of the class label.
 No missing data: The data should not contain any missing values.

Bayes Theorem Formula


If A and B are two events, then the formula for the Bayes theorem is given by:

Where P(A|B) is the probability of condition when event A is occurring while event B has
already occurred.

 From the above bayes statement formula for Naïve Bayes classification
derived as follows :
 Consider any two events A and B are independent, then,
P(A,B) = P(A) P(B)
 Hence, we reach to the result:

 which can be expressed as:

 Now, as the denominator remains constant for a given input, we can remove that
term:

 Now, to create a classifier model, find the probability of given set of inputs for all
possible values of the class variable y and pick up the output with maximum
probability.
 This can be expressed mathematically as:

 So, finally, we are left with the task of calculating P(Y) and P(xi|y).
 Note that P(Y) is also called class probability and P(xi|y) is called conditional
probability.

Example
As VNB(no) >VNB(yes)

The Given instance is classified as the class(table-tennis) No.

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