Lecture 7 - Risk and Return-CAPM - Chapter 13
Lecture 7 - Risk and Return-CAPM - Chapter 13
• Part I: Valuation
• Time Value of Money, Discounted Cash Flow Valuation,
Bond and Stock Valuation.
Reading Chapter13
Summary of Chapter 12
n
• Expected return: E ( R ) = ∑ pi Ri
i =1
n
• Variance: σ = ∑ pi ( Ri − E ( R)) 2
2
i =1
𝑽𝑽𝑽𝑽𝑽𝑽 𝑹𝑹𝒑𝒑 = 𝑤𝑤𝑎𝑎2 𝜎𝜎𝑎𝑎2 + 𝑤𝑤𝑏𝑏2 𝜎𝜎𝑏𝑏2 + 2𝑤𝑤𝑎𝑎 𝑤𝑤𝑏𝑏 𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶 𝑅𝑅𝑎𝑎 , 𝑅𝑅𝑏𝑏
𝑛𝑛
Recall 𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶 𝑅𝑅𝑎𝑎 , 𝑅𝑅𝑏𝑏 = Σ𝑖𝑖=1 𝑝𝑝𝑖𝑖 𝑟𝑟𝑎𝑎,𝑖𝑖 − 𝜇𝜇𝐴𝐴 𝑟𝑟𝑏𝑏,𝑖𝑖 − 𝜇𝜇𝐵𝐵
• Expected Return of A:
3
• 𝜇𝜇𝐴𝐴 = Σ𝑛𝑛=1 𝑝𝑝𝑛𝑛 𝑟𝑟𝐴𝐴,𝑛𝑛 = 0.3 10% + 0.5 14% + 0.2 20% = 14%
• Expected Return of B:
3
• 𝜇𝜇𝐵𝐵 = Σ𝑛𝑛=1 𝑝𝑝𝑛𝑛 𝑟𝑟𝐵𝐵,𝑛𝑛 = 0.3 35% + 0.5 20% + 0.2 10% = 22.5%
Example – Variance
• Variance of A
• σ2 = .3(10%-14%)2 + .5(14%-14%)2 + .2(20%-14%)2
=0.12%
• Standard Deviation of A
• σ = 3.46%
• Variance of B
• σ2 = .3(35%-22.5%)2 + .5(20%-22.5%)2 + .2(10%-22.5%)2
=0.81%
• Standard Deviation of B
• σ = 9.01%
Example – Covariance and Correlation
• Covariance of A and B
3
• 𝜎𝜎𝐴𝐴𝐴𝐴 = Σ𝑛𝑛=1 𝑝𝑝𝑛𝑛 𝑟𝑟𝐴𝐴,𝑛𝑛 − 𝜇𝜇𝐴𝐴
𝑟𝑟𝐵𝐵,𝑛𝑛 − 𝜇𝜇𝐵𝐵
= 0.3 0.1 − 0.14 0.35 − 0.225 + 0.5 0.14 − 0.14 0.2 − 0.225
+ 0.2 0.2 − 0.14 0.1 − 0.225 = −0.003
Recall:
𝑛𝑛
𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶 𝑅𝑅𝑎𝑎 , 𝑅𝑅𝑏𝑏 = Σ𝑖𝑖=1 𝑝𝑝𝑖𝑖 𝑟𝑟𝑎𝑎,𝑖𝑖 − 𝜇𝜇𝐴𝐴 𝑟𝑟𝑏𝑏,𝑖𝑖 − 𝜇𝜇𝐵𝐵
Example – Portfolio’s Expected Return and Variance
• If we invest 50% on stock A and 50% on stock B, what is
portfolio’s expected return and return variance?
𝑽𝑽𝑽𝑽𝑽𝑽 𝑹𝑹𝒑𝒑 = 𝑤𝑤𝑎𝑎2 𝜎𝜎𝑎𝑎2 + 𝑤𝑤𝑏𝑏2 𝜎𝜎𝑏𝑏2 + 2𝑤𝑤𝑎𝑎 𝑤𝑤𝑏𝑏 𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶 𝑅𝑅𝑎𝑎 , 𝑅𝑅𝑏𝑏
Reading : Chapters 13
Expected and Unexpected Returns
• Total return
= Expected return + Unexpected return (surprises)
(𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑉𝑉𝑉𝑉𝑉𝑉(∈𝑖𝑖 ) = 𝑉𝑉𝑉𝑉𝑉𝑉(∈))
Portfolio Theory – Diversification
Reading : Chapters 13
Systematic Risk Principle
Therefore,
= 1.947
Example of Portfolio Beta
• Suppose we know the betas for the following stocks:
(e.g. we can look them up at Yahoo Finance)
GAP 0.48
IBM 0.52
Google 2.6
YES!
Security Market Line
Market Equilibrium
E ( RA ) − R f E ( RM − R f )
=
βA βM
The Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM)
From market equilibrium:
E ( RA ) − R f E ( RM − R f ) βA
= ⇒ E ( RA ) = R f + * E ( RM − R f )
βA βM βM
βA
⇒ E ( RA ) = R f + * E ( RM − R f ) = R f + β A * E ( RM − R f )
1
• Look at the portfolio putting 𝜷𝜷𝒊𝒊 on market index and 1-𝜷𝜷𝒊𝒊 on risk-
free asset. That is, the portfolio’ return
𝑹𝑹𝒑𝒑 =(1−𝜷𝜷𝒊𝒊 ) 𝑹𝑹𝒇𝒇 +𝜷𝜷𝒊𝒊 𝑹𝑹𝒎𝒎
𝐕𝐕𝐕𝐕𝐕𝐕(𝐑𝐑 𝐩𝐩 )=(1−𝛃𝛃𝐢𝐢 )𝟐𝟐 Var(𝐑𝐑 𝐟𝐟 ) + 𝛃𝛃𝟐𝟐𝐢𝐢 𝐕𝐕𝐕𝐕𝐕𝐕(𝐑𝐑 𝐦𝐦 ) + 𝟐𝟐 (1−𝛃𝛃𝐢𝐢 ) 𝛃𝛃𝐢𝐢 COV(𝐑𝐑 𝐟𝐟 , 𝐑𝐑 𝐦𝐦 )
=𝛃𝛃𝟐𝟐𝐢𝐢 𝐕𝐕𝐕𝐕𝐕𝐕(𝐑𝐑 𝐦𝐦 )
Comprehensive Problem 1 (Complicated One)
Your investment portfolio consists of $15,000 invested in only
one stock-Microsoft. Suppose the risk-free rate is 5%, Microsoft
stock has an expected return of 12% and a volatility of 40%, and
the market portfolio has an expected return of 10% and volatility
of 18%. Under the CAPM assumptions
What alternative investment has the lowest possible
Q(1):
volatility while having the same expected return as Microsoft?
Q(2):What is the volatility of the portfolio in Part (1)?
Comprehensive Problem 1 (Answer)
Answer:
Tips: The portfolio with lowest volatilities (given the same expected return) only includes the systematic risk. Thus,
the portfolio is a portfolio with only market portfolio and risk-free asset (it is clear that this kinds of portfolio has only
systematic risk).
We assume we put x weight on market portfolio and 1-x on risk free asset. This portfolio’s expected return is
x*10%+(1-x)*5%
In this question, we want to make sure this portfolio’s return is 12%, which Microsoft’s return. Thus,
This means that the portfolio with the lowest volatility that has the same return as Microsoft has 15,000*1.4=21,000
in the market portfolio and borrows 21,000-15,000=6,000, that is -6,000 in the risk-free asset.
Portfolio Variance=𝜎𝜎𝑝𝑝2 = 𝑥𝑥 2 𝜎𝜎12 + 1 − 𝑥𝑥 2𝜎𝜎22 + 2𝑥𝑥(1 − 𝑥𝑥) 𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐(𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚 𝑟𝑟𝑟𝑟𝑟𝑟𝑟𝑟𝑟𝑟𝑟𝑟, 𝑟𝑟𝑟𝑟𝑟𝑟𝑟𝑟 − 𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓 𝑟𝑟𝑟𝑟𝑟𝑟𝑟𝑟)
=0.0635
• Part I: Valuation
• Time Value of Money, Discounted Cash Flow Valuation,
Bond and Stock Valuation.