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Unit 3 - Testing Hypothesis

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Unit 3 - Testing Hypothesis

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Testing of Hypotheses | (Parametric or Standard Tests of Hypotheses) Hypothesis is usually considered as the principal instrument in research. In fact, many experiments are carried out with the deliberate object of testing hypotheses. Decision-makers often face situations wherein they are interested in testing hypotheses on the basis of available information and then take decisions on the basis of such testing. In social science, where direct knowledge of population parameter(s) is rare, hypothesis testing is the often used strategy for deciding whether a sample data offer such support fora hypothesis that generalisation can be made. Thus hypothesis testing enables us to make probability statements about population parameter) -:NSBHpousesismay NHS pO VEU NbNoI Gey BUCINpACCE ‘HSTRCCELE A Chas|WitistOGM TERESI, Before we explain how hypotheses are tested through different tests meant for the purpose, it will be appropriate to explain clearly the meaning of a hypothesis and the related concepts for better understanding of the hypothesis testing techniques, WHAT IS A HYPOTHESIS? Ordinarily, when one talks about hypothesis, one simply means a mere assumption or some supposition to be proved or disproved. But for a researcher ESGIVE] Thus a hypothesis may be defined as a proposition or a set of proposition set forth as an explanation for the occurrence of some specified group of phenomena cither asserted merely as a provisional conjecture to guide some investigation or accepted as highly probable in the light of ‘established facts. Quite often a research RPORHESs a predictive SEMEN, CApIeTORBETAB ESTER yee scree a relates epee yea ato poms eprint vara For example, consider statements like the following ones: “Students who receive counselling will show a greater increase in creativity than students not receiving counselling” Or the automobile A is performing as well as automobile B.” ‘These are hypotheses capable of being objectively verified and tested. Thus, we may conclude that a hypothesis states what we are looking for and it is a proposition which can be put to a test to Testing of Hypotheses T 185 (CiaraeREFSHES of hypothesis: Hypothesis must possess the following characteristics: (0) Hypothesis shouldbe elear and precise If the hypothesis is not clear and precise the inferences drawn on its basis cannot be taken as reliable, Gi) Hypothesis sHOUKdbe CapAbIEOMbEIng ested) In a swamp of untestable hypotheses, many a time the research programmes have bogged down. Some prior study may be done by researcher in order to make hypothesis a testable one. AURiipOUESiSI Sis EStablIEMMOtier /< {fit 8 sinicanee ewe) hypothesised value ns Acceptance region, Rejection region (fecept te sample meni () fais in his 9500) We eal rian yi lt se wo rons Fig. 9.1 2 Richard I. Levin, Stristics for Management, p. 247-248. “Aluo known a tical regions. Testing of Hypotheses T Mathematically we can state: Acceptance Region A:|2\ 2196 Rejection Region R :|2| 5 196 If the significance level is 5 per cent and the two-tailed test is to be applied, the probability of the rejection area will be 0.05 (equally splitted on both tails of the curve as 0.025) and that of the acceptance region will be 0.95 as shown in the above curve, Ifwe take 1 = 100 and if@UFSAAHE but if the sample mean does not deviate significantly from 1, in that case we shall accept the null hypothesis But there are situations when only one-tailed test is considered appropriate. AN@ESGHI@Aest ‘would be used when We are to test. «1. Whether the population mean is either lower than or higher For instance, if our Hy: #= Hy, and H,: 4 < Hy,» then we are wn as {ily which can be illustrated as below: Acceptance and rejection regions in case of one tailed test al) wih 5% significance Rejection region! — Acceptance region (Accept Hy the sample ‘mean falls inthis region) ee rotten Fig. 9.2 ‘Mathematically we can state: Acceptance Region A: Z> 1645 Rejection Region RZ % 1645 190) “Research Methodology atc omeee nen acc eA Ie Veiicaee level in the given case 1s kept at 5%, then the rejection region will be equal to 0.05 of area in the left tall as has been shown in the above curve. Incase our Hp: = Hy, and H,? > Hy, , we are then interested in what is known as one- tailed test (right tail) and the rejection region will be on the right tail of the curve as shown below: ‘Accoptance and ejecon regions cane of one-alad es (ih a) ‘wt 88 significance level 5 amen | Rejection region for right tailed test, eaten tiem pir lelacatpe sae i one tailed test is used when alt ‘moan tls in ths rog}00) if mean is 100, then sample mean deviates from 100 in upward direction null hypo gets rejected otherwise shall hypo is ‘greater than’ or ‘lesser than’ & two tailed test is used when alt hypo is ‘whether greater or lesser’ accept the same for left tailed test, alt hypo:mean < hypo mean if mean is 100, then sample mean deviates from 100 in (005 care | Odb of area 0065 of area lower direction oo steamer null hypo gets rejected ! j otherwise accept it at certain % Zent6t6 level of significance Rejc osampla mean alsin this region Fig. 9.3 Mathematically we can state: Acceptance Region A:Z = 1645 Rejection Region A: Z> 1.645 a] EE PEERED 10h ven case signin level ise ‘at 5%, then the rejection region will be equal to 0.05 of area in the right-tail as has been shown in the above curve. It should always be remembered that {although we behave as if H, is true). Testing of Hypotheses T TT PROCEDURE FOR HYPOTHESIS TESTING To test a hypothesis means to tell (on the basis of the data the researcher has collected) whether or not the hypothesis seems to be valid. In hypothesis testing the main question is: whether to accept the null hypothesis or not to accept the null hypothesis? Procedure for hypothesis testing refers to all those steps that we undertake for making a choice between the two actions i.e., rejection and acceptance of a null hypothesis. The various steps involved in hypothesis testing are stated below: (i) Making a formal statenemt: The step consis (H,) and also of the altemative hypothesis (H.). in making a formal statement of the null hypothesis, ‘or instance, Mr. Mohan of the Civil Engineering Department wants to test the load bearing capacity of an old bridge which must be more than 10 tons, in that case he can state his hypotheses as under: Nill hypothesis 7, : H = 10 tons Alternative Hypothesis H, : 4 > 10 tons ‘Take another example. The average score in an aptitude test administered at the national level is 80. ‘To evaluate a state's education system, the average score of 100 of the state's students selected on random basis was 75. The state wants to know if there isa significant difference between the local scores and the national scores. In such a situation the hypotheses may be stated as under: Null hypothesis Hy: #t = 80 Alternative Hypothesis H, : t #80 ‘The formulation of hypotheses isan important step which must be accomplished with due care in accordance with the object and nature of the problem under consideration. It also indicates whether ‘we should use a one-tailed test or a two-tailed test. ATT (i) Selecting a significance level: The hypotheses are tested on a pre-determined level of significance and as such the same should be specified. Gin RACE ENGSPNGVEI ISTIC ‘Rope PURPORT ACARNALAATE he Level of significance ae: REMAN OEE ference between sample mean; (b) the sizeof the samples: (c the variability of measurements ‘within samples: and () wheter the hypothessis irctional rnon-irectonal (directional hypothesis | In brief, the level of significance must be adequate in the context of the purpose and nature of enquity. (iii) Deciding the distribution to use: After deciding the level of significance, the next step in hypothesis testing is to determine the appropriate sampling distribution: Mhe choice generally remains rules for selecting the correct distribution are similar to those which we have stated earlier in the context of estimation, (iv) Selecting a random sample and computing an appropriate value: Another step is to $166 Saisie Zig WE TEeVARESHHBUIOR, In other words, draw a sample to furnish empirical data. (9) Caleulation of the probability: ORENSUEATSTEICUE WE PROSRBA, that the sample result would diverge as widely as it has from expectations, if the null hypothesis were in fact true. 192 “Research Methodology (vi) Comparing the probability: YeUaisouiee step Consists in Coniparing the probability thus calculated [-— I the calculated probability is equal to or SmI eeepc accep the altemative hypothesis). BCAA Probab EAE, In case we reject H, we runa risk of (at most the level of significance) iepanerer ti we acept #7 then we run some risk (he size of which cannot be specified as long as the H, happens to be vague rather than specific) of committing an error of ‘Type HL. FLOW DIAGRAM FOR HYPOTHESIS TESTING ‘The above stated general procedure for hypothesis testing can also be depicted in the from of a flow- chart for better understanding as shown in Fig. 9.4" FLOW DIAGRAM FOR HYPOTHESIS TESTING if calculated probability is equal to or ‘smaller than the significance level, then ne tailed test is used and null hypo is rejected & vice versa if null hypo is rejected then we rat risk of committing type 1 error (alpha) & if we accept null hypo then we rat risk of committing type 2 error (beta) ‘Stato Has wots A + | Speci ne eto srstcance (rhe valve) + ‘Date te save oe £ ‘Sample a random sampie(s) | ‘nd workout an ‘ale rom same cata + Calculate the probability t ‘su woad Sareea ‘rem encase nt + s this probability equal oor smaller than| ‘yalue incase of one taed test and /2| Incase of moved test Yes No. ‘thereby run the sk thereby run some ‘commiting ik of commiting “ype | enor “ype enor Fig. 94 Based onthe flow diagram in William A. Chance’s Sarstical Methods for Decision Making, Richard D. Irwin INC. inci, 1969, p48, TESTS OF HYPOTHESES Sons bea stata th hypoesisestng etm the ality of the assump (eencaly ‘sescted as ul hypothesis) Wi view 1o choose beween two conflicting hypaese about he ‘HESSEN OpUMaNrEMAE 1y poste pew decide onthe ast oa sample dats, ‘wheter «bypestess about te population is likely o be te false Statstcins have developed size o Type Land Type emors* Wetake up inthe preset chapter some ofthe important parame tens, whereas norparuncts tess wil be dealt wih na seprie cape ater in he bok ‘Daze nd anes Murty dcr Staal ni 3 *“Ectetisas ned atetl pio amg etl dreds nich coe pam tes Tiss ec tn clearings Tali es ‘samples his sts also wed in the content of analysis of variance (ANOVA) for judging the ‘Sgnficane of mor thin two sample mans atone andthe same ime Bo se or jung he (Wo be sen inthe ratio tables for iffeeat depres of feedon fer srestr sal Staller variances a piel level of sisiicance) Reseeopg ort tau pou The leon pages 198-20 summarises he mont parame est along with est statics and test uations fr testing parameters ofen used in esearch ‘Shi nt cts oon et ‘Weean now explain andi statistics intesting ofhypoteses.

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