Basic probability theory

Chrysafis Vogiatzis

Department of Industrial and Enterprise Systems Engineering

University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign

Lecture 3

©Chrysafis Vogiatzis. Do not distribute without permission of the author

1/9 Chrysafis Vogiatzis Basic probability theory

Last time..

We discussed different ways to count.

Multiplication rule: when tasked with making k choices, each of
them with ni options (i = 1, . . . , k ): n1 · n2 · . . . · nk
Permutation of all elements of a set: when having n elements to
arrange in an ordered fashion: Pn = n · (n − 1) · . . . · 1 = n!
Permutation of part of the elements of a set: when picking r < n
elements to arrange in an ordered fashion:
n!
Pn,r = n · (n − 1) · . . . · (n − r ) = (n−r )!

Permutation of groups of indistinguishable elements: when

faced with k groups of elements, each with ni items, then the
n!
distinguishable permutations are: n1 !·n2 ·...·nk !

Combinations: when picking r < n elements to arrange in an

Cn,r = nr = r !·(n−r
n!


unordered fashion: )!

We tied counting to quantifying probabilities in the case of

equally probable events.

2/9 Chrysafis Vogiatzis Basic probability theory

Last time..

We discussed different ways to count.

Multiplication rule: when tasked with making k choices, each of
them with ni options (i = 1, . . . , k ): n1 · n2 · . . . · nk
Permutation of all elements of a set: when having n elements to
arrange in an ordered fashion: Pn = n · (n − 1) · . . . · 1 = n!
Permutation of part of the elements of a set: when picking r < n
elements to arrange in an ordered fashion:
n!
Pn,r = n · (n − 1) · . . . · (n − r ) = (n−r )!

Permutation of groups of indistinguishable elements: when

faced with k groups of elements, each with ni items, then the
n!
distinguishable permutations are: n1 !·n2 ·...·nk !

Combinations: when picking r < n elements to arrange in an

Cn,r = nr = r !·(n−r
n!


unordered fashion: )!

We tied counting to quantifying probabilities in the case of

equally probable events.

2/9 Chrysafis Vogiatzis Basic probability theory

Probability
As a reminder, probability is a real number that quantifies the
likelihood of an event happening.
1 P(E) ≥ 0.
2 If E = S, then P(E) = 1.
3 If E1 , E2 , . . . , Em are m mutually exclusive events then:

P (E1 ∪ E2 ∪ . . . ∪ Em ) = P(E1 ) + P(E2 ) + . . . + P(Em )

or: !
m
[ m
X
P Ei = P(Ei ).
i=1 i=1

3/9 Chrysafis Vogiatzis Basic probability theory

Probability
As a reminder, probability is a real number that quantifies the
likelihood of an event happening.
1 P(E) ≥ 0.
2 If E = S, then P(E) = 1.
3 If E1 , E2 , . . . , Em are m mutually exclusive events then:

P (E1 ∪ E2 ∪ . . . ∪ Em ) = P(E1 ) + P(E2 ) + . . . + P(Em )

or: !
m
[ m
X
P Ei = P(Ei ).
i=1 i=1

The three axioms above immediately give us some very useful

properties:
Probability is always between 0 and 1.
P(E) = 1 − P(E).
If E1 ⊆ E2 , then P(E1 ) ≤ P(E2 ).

3/9 Chrysafis Vogiatzis Basic probability theory

Union and intersection of events

Recall that for any two events E1 , E2 , we have:

E1 ∪ E2 : at least one of E1 , E2 should happen.
E1 ∩ E2 : both E1 and E2 should happen.

4/9 Chrysafis Vogiatzis Basic probability theory

Union and intersection of events

Recall that for any two events E1 , E2 , we have:

E1 ∪ E2 : at least one of E1 , E2 should happen.
E1 ∩ E2 : both E1 and E2 should happen.

From this definition, we may deduce that:

P(E1 ) ≤ P(E1 ∪ E2 ) P(E2 ) ≤ P(E1 ∪ E2 )

P(E1 ∩ E2 ) ≤ P(E1 ) P(E1 ∩ E2 ) ≤ P(E1 )

4/9 Chrysafis Vogiatzis Basic probability theory

Union and intersection of events

Recall that for any two events E1 , E2 , we have:

E1 ∪ E2 : at least one of E1 , E2 should happen.
E1 ∩ E2 : both E1 and E2 should happen.

From this definition, we may deduce that:

P(E1 ) ≤ P(E1 ∪ E2 ) P(E2 ) ≤ P(E1 ∪ E2 )

P(E1 ∩ E2 ) ≤ P(E1 ) P(E1 ∩ E2 ) ≤ P(E1 )

Additionally:

P(E1 ∪ E2 ) ≤ P(E1 ) + P(E2 )

4/9 Chrysafis Vogiatzis Basic probability theory

Calculating P(E1 ∪ E2 ): a small example
Example
Recall the grades from 3 different professors for the same class.
Letter Grade Professor 1 Professor 2 Professor 3 Total
A 108 20 30 158
B 44 49 46 139
C 11 15 15 41
D 0 1 8 9
Total 163 85 99 347
You call on 1 student out of the 347, what is the probability:
1 E1 : you pick a student from Professor 1’s class?
P(E1 ) = 163/347 = 0.4697.
2 E2 : you pick a student who received an A in the class?
P(E2 ) = 158/347 = 0.4553.
3 E1 ∩ E2 : you pick a student who was both in Professor 1’s class
and received an A in the class?
P(E1 ∩ E2 ) = 108/347 = 0.3112.

5/9 Chrysafis Vogiatzis Basic probability theory

Calculating P(E1 ∪ E2 ): a small example
Example
Recall the grades from 3 different professors for the same class.
Letter Grade Professor 1 Professor 2 Professor 3 Total
A 108 20 30 158
B 44 49 46 139
C 11 15 15 41
D 0 1 8 9
Total 163 85 99 347
You call on 1 student out of the 347, what is the probability:
1 E1 : you pick a student from Professor 1’s class?
P(E1 ) = 163/347 = 0.4697.
2 E2 : you pick a student who received an A in the class?
P(E2 ) = 158/347 = 0.4553.
3 E1 ∩ E2 : you pick a student who was both in Professor 1’s class
and received an A in the class?
P(E1 ∩ E2 ) = 108/347 = 0.3112.

5/9 Chrysafis Vogiatzis Basic probability theory

Calculating P(E1 ∪ E2 ): a small example
Example
Recall the grades from 3 different professors for the same class.
Letter Grade Professor 1 Professor 2 Professor 3 Total
A 108 20 30 158
B 44 49 46 139
C 11 15 15 41
D 0 1 8 9
Total 163 85 99 347
You call on 1 student out of the 347, what is the probability:
1 E1 : you pick a student from Professor 1’s class?
P(E1 ) = 163/347 = 0.4697.
2 E2 : you pick a student who received an A in the class?
P(E2 ) = 158/347 = 0.4553.
3 E1 ∩ E2 : you pick a student who was both in Professor 1’s class
and received an A in the class?
P(E1 ∩ E2 ) = 108/347 = 0.3112.

5/9 Chrysafis Vogiatzis Basic probability theory

Calculating P(E1 ∪ E2 ): a small example
Example
Recall the grades from 3 different professors for the same class.
Letter Grade Professor 1 Professor 2 Professor 3 Total
A 108 20 30 158
B 44 49 46 139
C 11 15 15 41
D 0 1 8 9
Total 163 85 99 347
You call on 1 student out of the 347, what is the probability:
1 E1 : you pick a student from Professor 1’s class?
P(E1 ) = 163/347 = 0.4697.
2 E2 : you pick a student who received an A in the class?
P(E2 ) = 158/347 = 0.4553.
3 E1 ∩ E2 : you pick a student who was both in Professor 1’s class
and received an A in the class?
P(E1 ∩ E2 ) = 108/347 = 0.3112.

5/9 Chrysafis Vogiatzis Basic probability theory

Calculating P(E1 ∪ E2 )

Example
We calculated:
P(E1 ) = 163/347 = 0.4697.
P(E2 ) = 158/347 = 0.4553.
P(E1 ∩ E2 ) = 108/347 = 0.3112.
What is the probability you pick a student who either got an A or was
in Professor 1’s class?

6/9 Chrysafis Vogiatzis Basic probability theory

Calculating P(E1 ∪ E2 )

Example
We calculated:
P(E1 ) = 163/347 = 0.4697.
P(E2 ) = 158/347 = 0.4553.
P(E1 ∩ E2 ) = 108/347 = 0.3112.
What is the probability you pick a student who either got an A or was
in Professor 1’s class?
This is P(E1 ∪ E2 ): if we only consider E1 and E2 we are double
counting the outcomes in both E1 and E2 .

6/9 Chrysafis Vogiatzis Basic probability theory

Calculating P(E1 ∪ E2 )

Example
We calculated:
P(E1 ) = 163/347 = 0.4697.
P(E2 ) = 158/347 = 0.4553.
P(E1 ∩ E2 ) = 108/347 = 0.3112.
What is the probability you pick a student who either got an A or was
in Professor 1’s class?
This is P(E1 ∪ E2 ): if we only consider E1 and E2 we are double
counting the outcomes in both E1 and E2 .

Overall:

P(E1 ∪ E2 ) = P(E1 ) + P(E2 ) − P(E1 ∩ E2 )

6/9 Chrysafis Vogiatzis Basic probability theory

Calculating P(E1 ∪ E2 )

Example
We calculated:
P(E1 ) = 163/347 = 0.4697.
P(E2 ) = 158/347 = 0.4553.
P(E1 ∩ E2 ) = 108/347 = 0.3112.
What is the probability you pick a student who either got an A or was
in Professor 1’s class?
This is P(E1 ∪ E2 ): if we only consider E1 and E2 we are double
counting the outcomes in both E1 and E2 .

Overall:

P(E1 ∪ E2 ) = P(E1 ) + P(E2 ) − P(E1 ∩ E2 )

See the worksheet for the union of more than 2 events.

6/9 Chrysafis Vogiatzis Basic probability theory

Conditional probabilities

Sometimes, we are interested in finding the likelihood of an event

under certain circumstances. We formally define this as the
probability that an event E2 happens given that event E1 has
happened and we write1 :

P(E1 ∩ E2 )
P(E2 |E1 ) = .
P(E1 )
If two events are mutually exclusive, we have that P (E2 |E1 ) = 0.

Based on the formula for calculating conditional probabilities, we also

have the multiplication rule for probabilities:

P(E1 ∩ E2 ) = P(E1 ) · P(E2 |E1 ).

1 Be careful: we need P(E1 ) > 0 for this to make sense.

7/9 Chrysafis Vogiatzis Basic probability theory
Conditional probabilities

Sometimes, we are interested in finding the likelihood of an event

under certain circumstances. We formally define this as the
probability that an event E2 happens given that event E1 has
happened and we write1 :

P(E1 ∩ E2 )
P(E2 |E1 ) = .
P(E1 )
If two events are mutually exclusive, we have that P (E2 |E1 ) = 0.

Based on the formula for calculating conditional probabilities, we also

have the multiplication rule for probabilities:

P(E1 ∩ E2 ) = P(E1 ) · P(E2 |E1 ).

1 Be careful: we need P(E1 ) > 0 for this to make sense.

7/9 Chrysafis Vogiatzis Basic probability theory
Conditional probabilities

Sometimes, we are interested in finding the likelihood of an event

under certain circumstances. We formally define this as the
probability that an event E2 happens given that event E1 has
happened and we write1 :

P(E1 ∩ E2 )
P(E2 |E1 ) = .
P(E1 )
If two events are mutually exclusive, we have that P (E2 |E1 ) = 0.

Based on the formula for calculating conditional probabilities, we also

have the multiplication rule for probabilities:

P(E1 ∩ E2 ) = P(E1 ) · P(E2 |E1 ).

1 Be careful: we need P(E1 ) > 0 for this to make sense.

7/9 Chrysafis Vogiatzis Basic probability theory
Independent events

Two events are independent if knowledge that one has happened

does not affect the probability of the other, that is:

P(E2 |E1 ) = P(E2 ) or P(E1 |E2 ) = P(E1 ).

Equivalently, two events are independent if

P(E1 ∩ E2 ) = P(E1 ) · P(E2 ).

This is easily shown by using the fact that

P(E2 )
z }| { P(E ∩ E )
1 2
P(E2 |E1 ) = =⇒ P(E1 ∩ E2 ) = P(E1 ) · P(E2 ).
P(E1 )

8/9 Chrysafis Vogiatzis Basic probability theory

Independent events

Two events are independent if knowledge that one has happened

does not affect the probability of the other, that is:

P(E2 |E1 ) = P(E2 ) or P(E1 |E2 ) = P(E1 ).

Equivalently, two events are independent if

P(E1 ∩ E2 ) = P(E1 ) · P(E2 ).

This is easily shown by using the fact that

P(E2 )
z }| { P(E ∩ E )
1 2
P(E2 |E1 ) = =⇒ P(E1 ∩ E2 ) = P(E1 ) · P(E2 ).
P(E1 )

8/9 Chrysafis Vogiatzis Basic probability theory

Independent events

Two events are independent if knowledge that one has happened

does not affect the probability of the other, that is:

P(E2 |E1 ) = P(E2 ) or P(E1 |E2 ) = P(E1 ).

Equivalently, two events are independent if

P(E1 ∩ E2 ) = P(E1 ) · P(E2 ).

This is easily shown by using the fact that

P(E2 )
z }| { P(E ∩ E )
1 2
P(E2 |E1 ) = =⇒ P(E1 ∩ E2 ) = P(E1 ) · P(E2 ).
P(E1 )

8/9 Chrysafis Vogiatzis Basic probability theory

Example: Let’s play some cards

Example
Consider a deck of 52 cards, with 13 cards from each suit: spades ♠,
hearts ♥, diamonds ♦, clubs ♣.
1 What is the probability that you draw a 2? There are 4 twos in the deck: 4/52 = 1/13.

2 What is the probability that you draw a diamond?

There are 13 of each suit in the deck: 13/52 = 1/4.

3 What is the probability that you draw a diamond or a spade?

The suits are mutually exclusive: 1/4 + 1/4 = 1/2.

4 What is the probability that you draw a diamond and a spade?

The suits are mutually exclusive: 0.

5 Are “drawing a diamond” and “drawing a red card” independent

events? They are not. Knowing we drew a red card, changes the probability of picking a diamond from 1/4 to 1/2.

6 Are “drawing a 2” and “drawing a red card” independent events?

They are. Drawing a two has a 4/52 = 1/13 chance, even after knowing we drew a red card; similarly drawing a red card has a

1/2 chance, even after we know we picked a “2”.

9/9 Chrysafis Vogiatzis Basic probability theory

Example: Let’s play some cards

Example
Consider a deck of 52 cards, with 13 cards from each suit: spades ♠,
hearts ♥, diamonds ♦, clubs ♣.
1 What is the probability that you draw a 2? There are 4 twos in the deck: 4/52 = 1/13.

2 What is the probability that you draw a diamond?

There are 13 of each suit in the deck: 13/52 = 1/4.

3 What is the probability that you draw a diamond or a spade?

The suits are mutually exclusive: 1/4 + 1/4 = 1/2.

4 What is the probability that you draw a diamond and a spade?

The suits are mutually exclusive: 0.

5 Are “drawing a diamond” and “drawing a red card” independent

events? They are not. Knowing we drew a red card, changes the probability of picking a diamond from 1/4 to 1/2.

6 Are “drawing a 2” and “drawing a red card” independent events?

They are. Drawing a two has a 4/52 = 1/13 chance, even after knowing we drew a red card; similarly drawing a red card has a

1/2 chance, even after we know we picked a “2”.

9/9 Chrysafis Vogiatzis Basic probability theory

Example: Let’s play some cards

Example
Consider a deck of 52 cards, with 13 cards from each suit: spades ♠,
hearts ♥, diamonds ♦, clubs ♣.
1 What is the probability that you draw a 2? There are 4 twos in the deck: 4/52 = 1/13.

2 What is the probability that you draw a diamond?

There are 13 of each suit in the deck: 13/52 = 1/4.

3 What is the probability that you draw a diamond or a spade?

The suits are mutually exclusive: 1/4 + 1/4 = 1/2.

4 What is the probability that you draw a diamond and a spade?

The suits are mutually exclusive: 0.

5 Are “drawing a diamond” and “drawing a red card” independent

events? They are not. Knowing we drew a red card, changes the probability of picking a diamond from 1/4 to 1/2.

6 Are “drawing a 2” and “drawing a red card” independent events?

They are. Drawing a two has a 4/52 = 1/13 chance, even after knowing we drew a red card; similarly drawing a red card has a

1/2 chance, even after we know we picked a “2”.

9/9 Chrysafis Vogiatzis Basic probability theory

Example: Let’s play some cards

Example
Consider a deck of 52 cards, with 13 cards from each suit: spades ♠,
hearts ♥, diamonds ♦, clubs ♣.
1 What is the probability that you draw a 2? There are 4 twos in the deck: 4/52 = 1/13.

2 What is the probability that you draw a diamond?

There are 13 of each suit in the deck: 13/52 = 1/4.

3 What is the probability that you draw a diamond or a spade?

The suits are mutually exclusive: 1/4 + 1/4 = 1/2.

4 What is the probability that you draw a diamond and a spade?

The suits are mutually exclusive: 0.

5 Are “drawing a diamond” and “drawing a red card” independent

events? They are not. Knowing we drew a red card, changes the probability of picking a diamond from 1/4 to 1/2.

6 Are “drawing a 2” and “drawing a red card” independent events?

They are. Drawing a two has a 4/52 = 1/13 chance, even after knowing we drew a red card; similarly drawing a red card has a

1/2 chance, even after we know we picked a “2”.

9/9 Chrysafis Vogiatzis Basic probability theory

Example: Let’s play some cards

Example
Consider a deck of 52 cards, with 13 cards from each suit: spades ♠,
hearts ♥, diamonds ♦, clubs ♣.
1 What is the probability that you draw a 2? There are 4 twos in the deck: 4/52 = 1/13.

2 What is the probability that you draw a diamond?

There are 13 of each suit in the deck: 13/52 = 1/4.

3 What is the probability that you draw a diamond or a spade?

The suits are mutually exclusive: 1/4 + 1/4 = 1/2.

4 What is the probability that you draw a diamond and a spade?

The suits are mutually exclusive: 0.

5 Are “drawing a diamond” and “drawing a red card” independent

events? They are not. Knowing we drew a red card, changes the probability of picking a diamond from 1/4 to 1/2.

6 Are “drawing a 2” and “drawing a red card” independent events?

They are. Drawing a two has a 4/52 = 1/13 chance, even after knowing we drew a red card; similarly drawing a red card has a

1/2 chance, even after we know we picked a “2”.

9/9 Chrysafis Vogiatzis Basic probability theory

Example: Let’s play some cards

Example
Consider a deck of 52 cards, with 13 cards from each suit: spades ♠,
hearts ♥, diamonds ♦, clubs ♣.
1 What is the probability that you draw a 2? There are 4 twos in the deck: 4/52 = 1/13.

2 What is the probability that you draw a diamond?

There are 13 of each suit in the deck: 13/52 = 1/4.

3 What is the probability that you draw a diamond or a spade?

The suits are mutually exclusive: 1/4 + 1/4 = 1/2.

4 What is the probability that you draw a diamond and a spade?

The suits are mutually exclusive: 0.

5 Are “drawing a diamond” and “drawing a red card” independent

events? They are not. Knowing we drew a red card, changes the probability of picking a diamond from 1/4 to 1/2.

6 Are “drawing a 2” and “drawing a red card” independent events?

They are. Drawing a two has a 4/52 = 1/13 chance, even after knowing we drew a red card; similarly drawing a red card has a

1/2 chance, even after we know we picked a “2”.

9/9 Chrysafis Vogiatzis Basic probability theory

Example: Let’s play some cards

Example
Consider a deck of 52 cards, with 13 cards from each suit: spades ♠,
hearts ♥, diamonds ♦, clubs ♣.
1 What is the probability that you draw a 2? There are 4 twos in the deck: 4/52 = 1/13.

2 What is the probability that you draw a diamond?

There are 13 of each suit in the deck: 13/52 = 1/4.

3 What is the probability that you draw a diamond or a spade?

The suits are mutually exclusive: 1/4 + 1/4 = 1/2.

4 What is the probability that you draw a diamond and a spade?

The suits are mutually exclusive: 0.

5 Are “drawing a diamond” and “drawing a red card” independent

events? They are not. Knowing we drew a red card, changes the probability of picking a diamond from 1/4 to 1/2.

6 Are “drawing a 2” and “drawing a red card” independent events?

They are. Drawing a two has a 4/52 = 1/13 chance, even after knowing we drew a red card; similarly drawing a red card has a

1/2 chance, even after we know we picked a “2”.

9/9 Chrysafis Vogiatzis Basic probability theory

Example: Let’s play some cards

Example
Consider a deck of 52 cards, with 13 cards from each suit: spades ♠,
hearts ♥, diamonds ♦, clubs ♣.
1 What is the probability that you draw a 2? There are 4 twos in the deck: 4/52 = 1/13.

2 What is the probability that you draw a diamond?

There are 13 of each suit in the deck: 13/52 = 1/4.

3 What is the probability that you draw a diamond or a spade?

The suits are mutually exclusive: 1/4 + 1/4 = 1/2.

4 What is the probability that you draw a diamond and a spade?

The suits are mutually exclusive: 0.

5 Are “drawing a diamond” and “drawing a red card” independent

events? They are not. Knowing we drew a red card, changes the probability of picking a diamond from 1/4 to 1/2.

6 Are “drawing a 2” and “drawing a red card” independent events?

They are. Drawing a two has a 4/52 = 1/13 chance, even after knowing we drew a red card; similarly drawing a red card has a

1/2 chance, even after we know we picked a “2”.

9/9 Chrysafis Vogiatzis Basic probability theory

Example: Let’s play some cards

Example
Consider a deck of 52 cards, with 13 cards from each suit: spades ♠,
hearts ♥, diamonds ♦, clubs ♣.
1 What is the probability that you draw a 2? There are 4 twos in the deck: 4/52 = 1/13.

2 What is the probability that you draw a diamond?

There are 13 of each suit in the deck: 13/52 = 1/4.

3 What is the probability that you draw a diamond or a spade?

The suits are mutually exclusive: 1/4 + 1/4 = 1/2.

4 What is the probability that you draw a diamond and a spade?

The suits are mutually exclusive: 0.

5 Are “drawing a diamond” and “drawing a red card” independent

events? They are not. Knowing we drew a red card, changes the probability of picking a diamond from 1/4 to 1/2.

6 Are “drawing a 2” and “drawing a red card” independent events?

They are. Drawing a two has a 4/52 = 1/13 chance, even after knowing we drew a red card; similarly drawing a red card has a

1/2 chance, even after we know we picked a “2”.

9/9 Chrysafis Vogiatzis Basic probability theory

Example: Let’s play some cards

Example
Consider a deck of 52 cards, with 13 cards from each suit: spades ♠,
hearts ♥, diamonds ♦, clubs ♣.
1 What is the probability that you draw a 2? There are 4 twos in the deck: 4/52 = 1/13.

2 What is the probability that you draw a diamond?

There are 13 of each suit in the deck: 13/52 = 1/4.

3 What is the probability that you draw a diamond or a spade?

The suits are mutually exclusive: 1/4 + 1/4 = 1/2.

4 What is the probability that you draw a diamond and a spade?

The suits are mutually exclusive: 0.

5 Are “drawing a diamond” and “drawing a red card” independent

events? They are not. Knowing we drew a red card, changes the probability of picking a diamond from 1/4 to 1/2.

6 Are “drawing a 2” and “drawing a red card” independent events?

They are. Drawing a two has a 4/52 = 1/13 chance, even after knowing we drew a red card; similarly drawing a red card has a

1/2 chance, even after we know we picked a “2”.

9/9 Chrysafis Vogiatzis Basic probability theory

Example: Let’s play some cards

Example
Consider a deck of 52 cards, with 13 cards from each suit: spades ♠,
hearts ♥, diamonds ♦, clubs ♣.
1 What is the probability that you draw a 2? There are 4 twos in the deck: 4/52 = 1/13.

2 What is the probability that you draw a diamond?

There are 13 of each suit in the deck: 13/52 = 1/4.

3 What is the probability that you draw a diamond or a spade?

The suits are mutually exclusive: 1/4 + 1/4 = 1/2.

4 What is the probability that you draw a diamond and a spade?

The suits are mutually exclusive: 0.

5 Are “drawing a diamond” and “drawing a red card” independent

events? They are not. Knowing we drew a red card, changes the probability of picking a diamond from 1/4 to 1/2.

6 Are “drawing a 2” and “drawing a red card” independent events?

They are. Drawing a two has a 4/52 = 1/13 chance, even after knowing we drew a red card; similarly drawing a red card has a

1/2 chance, even after we know we picked a “2”.

9/9 Chrysafis Vogiatzis Basic probability theory

Example: Let’s play some cards

Example
Consider a deck of 52 cards, with 13 cards from each suit: spades ♠,
hearts ♥, diamonds ♦, clubs ♣.
1 What is the probability that you draw a 2? There are 4 twos in the deck: 4/52 = 1/13.

2 What is the probability that you draw a diamond?

There are 13 of each suit in the deck: 13/52 = 1/4.

3 What is the probability that you draw a diamond or a spade?

The suits are mutually exclusive: 1/4 + 1/4 = 1/2.

4 What is the probability that you draw a diamond and a spade?

The suits are mutually exclusive: 0.

5 Are “drawing a diamond” and “drawing a red card” independent

events? They are not. Knowing we drew a red card, changes the probability of picking a diamond from 1/4 to 1/2.

6 Are “drawing a 2” and “drawing a red card” independent events?

They are. Drawing a two has a 4/52 = 1/13 chance, even after knowing we drew a red card; similarly drawing a red card has a

1/2 chance, even after we know we picked a “2”.

9/9 Chrysafis Vogiatzis Basic probability theory

Example: Let’s play some cards

Example
Consider a deck of 52 cards, with 13 cards from each suit: spades ♠,
hearts ♥, diamonds ♦, clubs ♣.
1 What is the probability that you draw a 2? There are 4 twos in the deck: 4/52 = 1/13.

2 What is the probability that you draw a diamond?

There are 13 of each suit in the deck: 13/52 = 1/4.

3 What is the probability that you draw a diamond or a spade?

The suits are mutually exclusive: 1/4 + 1/4 = 1/2.

4 What is the probability that you draw a diamond and a spade?

The suits are mutually exclusive: 0.

5 Are “drawing a diamond” and “drawing a red card” independent

events? They are not. Knowing we drew a red card, changes the probability of picking a diamond from 1/4 to 1/2.

6 Are “drawing a 2” and “drawing a red card” independent events?

They are. Drawing a two has a 4/52 = 1/13 chance, even after knowing we drew a red card; similarly drawing a red card has a

1/2 chance, even after we know we picked a “2”.

9/9 Chrysafis Vogiatzis Basic probability theory