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Probability

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0% found this document useful (0 votes)
13 views

Probability

Uploaded by

restlessbe
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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2

Konei
1 Bolalil, and{ andem evemls
r y aclen hsse Jcasulla ucoelam calbd
arcdern uperri onert 9 r a l . a c k s eult 4
Ve eocbei mer7 scaledan bulceme The sil
a l l fsssibla Dulceees an K e L M t
Tual i calla hesanpe bace h a t
sample spae . E halher
l cons
Ss e furuk sampla Apace a mam apetumoa
ano v e ulcome S
t eg ual
prebabb, a t
E e s s
PLE) nlE)
=

mls) Tolal anber ossble


biauel
nbianty Sresuli

Pelabeh and Seguey


The ermmela PLE)lt)
Rocberimeml hat sssess
duce amd coins). the dee
llSeleomes ate
lergee lguall ltely amdh
ne

2ue

2"
canmet s a
e
that h alnll,
nead anshor gpuanlly (callad
llaining
peg uancH) The gutn a euei A
4ymbea3ed FCA) a d i w e z
FCA) Nurbe baals n 2shck A ecwzs

Tolal rumber f rals


Therepu, a ce Zossec 5o limis
hoads c u 22 m i s

O-AA ser chasical


50
dpenlerhe prebabil. btrbi lly
e o d O-s
The eelaterisli beaveere peobabill ars

e
Prumber
a n e v e pogsurely loses eli
a ewert

ramden nis<
onds lo slabidze Omd g e m i a l approachu a
contamt ralue. n toms egucorCy, pretabeil
fegaoo2ca, prelalriuly
may be dhneo a s PCA) um
M
M = nlo oMals muht in A OCt

NaN
ere M umber r u a l s tni bch A eceurs
N otal imber uals

ermbe nalezi l u e e l

hearple ace hen (AUB) e_euenl hat


eiler A ve B- Bot lake blace
(2) Snlrseclen Lemls: - A A amd B are
twre
ena
enenls
e sample space, therr A nB)e h
eurt t
hat / A amd B
+ccur
(3) ulually eocclsue ewen :- Juo utmls A and
15 asampla,face a e s aid le be muluall,
Loccvsue
canmat &ecewr imullamege
(4) haustwe ectls Tiweeutl A and B
the nple space aresad be 2hauslut
AUB=S à AUB cenlens all e
sample e n
Addeler heerem2 prebrabely
eeem: A amd B ae lws veils apla
dpace S hom PCAUB) = P(A) + P(B)- P(AN)

Psen dit n A) o nlB)=; (A


nB) *8 n

PCA)
ns)
PCB)-4 PCANB) -2
nls) nCs)
Fnen the kgue t a cleas S
A
ahat CAu o)= 6-3)
n
+3+3)
PCAUB) = n (AUB
(s) (s)

nCs) nls) nS)


PCAUB) PCA) + PCe) -

P(An6)

cclusue eutn
Nt-4 A amdB aee mulua

thum PCAUB)= PCA)+ PCB)


roef:- 2A kntr Þrem aldelieFresam
PCAUB) = PA)+ PCB) -PCANB)
amd B ANB s
9nuluoll, Lcclus uwe e m s A
22ll sel. hus, nCA n 6) =o

.PCANB) = (An8) = O
n(S)
PAne) = PCA)+PG)

lendlerial sbab.blg : - he pobad:llg


e t AA,
wwmt 2whte eund B hos already occevrad,
hcondiliernal prrobalelly o A 2md i denstd
D P(P/B) B)
nB)
1) Mulllcalon heotwmm eProbrabil

Pr A amd B any re lie ewnl


such What PIA) Fo hen P(A N 8) P(A)- P
(B/A) =

S a P(n) #o, bon nlA) #6


PC6/A)n CANB)
n CA)
n (AnB)
ns) PlAnB)
nA) etn)
n Cs)

PCB/A) PCA) = PCANB)

e (1) Indepurmdert uenls '-Eenls A amd B


e s a d lo e independe ret
PCA/B) =
P(A) - PCB/a) =PCa))
S Case nde perdersl euenls, te
Calor cerer reduces le
Thesrmm A and B are we Lmdehendert evenls
such h
Such a t P(A) #o
hat , PCB) o, hn PCAn8) PCa)PCo
Pre y muli hlealen ioem,
PCA NB): Pn). P (B/A) pruvidsd PM) #ob
Simce A amdB are Lnde pon dent, e have
PB/A)Ple)
PCANB): P(A). PE)

amdar Uarealle:- Avariable Zunore Ualue


detir minad by The aut c e m e Tamadem

wp nimenl i callu a srandom wialle. t


urrclhe depurd e sample pace
a
an
ama assvmes dwenl 2ralues wrl
dufnle pribabrlly, asdig ndle _eack aralue.
ramdem vaualk may e diceli o ctmli neuR.
dsctele ranlem va'iabe wl loke orky
4g Vnlees dy e umber -of ALAuwe ms
asampe,Te esall ef a biw a de
the * mler
rening erou t n a
fage
cmile naus rande7 ratuable lake a l
can

bessele vales u e an r y vatalle


nIwal 24 any v
ureler ng e neastw vernt heghweigh

l possible valuis ra dam vaual


Zhe
a
aleng
l carespsnderrg p'uevalrrliles (wlL
SUm e allrelablihes
peung undiy) ei callca
e relrallely olisbablier t h e zamder
ualte
a Aanclerm va'ualle lakng 2 l a s
, Xa, * 3 , . n 2wll peraldlhes (sa
Kuch

brelralll, dislu bul8n X may e quwn as


X 3
6)
rebablely p ) hat a diserile
tamdle ariaba X kaku ber veryample peinta
The sample spacs S
1h e alladThe brolalekiliy
mass funclien
s prolaliley dilulleere
funclee re amde aualle

Som al

(1) Suvrele andem v a t a l


male malc 2xpeclalie Ve
Mean rale (
uls
Combral value e 2retualle aluul 2etiuch
vwuvus Values wte ds bribeld
XLs a Jcanterm vaiale lakirng 2luus,,*2
wed rolallhes b., s, s prs
.
aapeclavely Therr the miam eamde
vriabe guei by E(X) z.
whvre , : *I
a)Lont nous szandem a t u a l t

Fen a colinauu varablez he prslabillt,


thot t toks vralues ai a rarge promz l
tdz
Pa-f) rhore lG) i e
prslalrl denslG)
e miar valu 3 6 gwen
P3) 3
unlig ral beu

Vaniamce Ds persLeN
LErelims
a varualla
2wllxespect ta
mam value. ThL divalen a ariab
prom l ma a l u *
vakue Jhe meam tthus
dewraluer 2utuld ke

mian
Jhus
divralle dss mst
hole us

The 74cessay vpermaler Calat h


0840e naleos a vualle ew.A.t. l mam
valus) cam e a n e l ly diloring
callld U uame a
poa relt
dipisucEn It dclie murs
e scallung zamdEm a u a l

:(-)
Sn a di oreli vawiable
* s z = z PCx) (Ar)2
J a cenünsus vwuiatk
* Pa). =)*.de
W: slanclard devralien (ahe calles"reol maam
9 a r e deuralien) gwen y e s9roe ro
h e vauale
[ -(a)*7a

Binemial Biibulen
samnpla apaca S eolaur
Sr a BmDell ual, e
eocac Lws ilcemes
eoeplrmerd ewhera csim4
ate
Zl us criiee an

ossed uvrg, ealherhrad'r a l ht e


aAbearanca k a d be ripresenld a s
pretab,
and a t v Zail be 9 In ollowrng kabl, zu
conside e a r o u s 0ulcems fen a umbae
ceuns are Wesed The s r h columm hoas prsbleleg
dussregatdang he r d e r heads lails, and
cnsidoe -nly he mibee cwvsr cas
Number Pvssibl
ulcems
Aebebl
()
H,T 2

2 HH,HTT
TH, TT
99
HHR, HHT ,39
HTH, THH

HTT, THT

TTH, TT

cslumn
larly, h eremns n e olh 22

iliuali will
Zssued h
Thereora,csmg 7
au

e symbslized by4+9)
2 72-2

9+f4+nln-)
+
2
bmemal lUicwtemm
J u l l s amalo9, 2vil celumr
he hibu'bulen g e wohe uu
callid r o n e a l disbebulwn

Sn general, cers Lder he case 2 &us


ecberi monli havmg uly we sossible bulcemis &04
A amd A wh prrobabiliis amd q respeclwey. 1
Thore be n uals, A secwrdtimus and A G c w
(n-) ms
The
The taals a e l a l a i e a l l u m d e p o r d o r t . -
n

rebabilly the aleue eventwrl ba gun ly p


imas a m d
I3l, a silualien im uhek A esult
a

A habbuns (n - ) Zmes cam dcewe im C Uau


Theraore, ke xeguirad prolbabelaly is p 9

wr =-4) be probrbell, ailu


each u a l .

a n alu onerrual Bistubaler


n genural, 7he meam ralue a vaalbll
en y ( ) = 2 n Pn),
Jor a bmemual dsrlatben h i becemas
o (Tr-)

-)

JBit

Thus, amiy ecs Cn-)


.

oc! (n-)!
.

a P)

as + =I
Thue ual
Cohgasfe h a . e derolprx mian 2nluek

clunliers landara dUrolln


Thise uclu ale y d nalor
baler ha ecen05,
eCn-x)

c l(n-x)
-

(n-x)
a)

el (n-a) -

( n -)

x!-)
n

t)r)-()6-9
0-1
) n p+9)

(u o]

al cdil balor
)

Sandard durcaher

Srln rooci maler


n nee n! = n (n-)n-).... . 4) 3 ) ) )
dr ! = lnn + ln (n-) mlr-2) + +r h +r
+m 2 t+ n
hs elleuvug ligure a lel e n 7 aga
e a a under The stibhed cwwe u ln

2 45 7
cutue ard

large, e sebbe
when n vy
Fe4nuooh cuue
ecome ndas le rquiskele
Then , T2can be eurned ly enlegrakri i

nnn t
we c a n rezlict

wh
ulor: 11

small (ie ) , z)
aj c 71) U) f vey

lssing he alov cerdillers id u apfrea m


Vc lwrns in lremual dibu bulen
the
nce, n! n (n-1).- -- (n -+1)

(72-)

Exppamdh 2U

nq n 1-lrp lnp
oerrua olazibul+em beceres
PCa) = n
PCa)CP ! (n-)|

(n -zt) L*
b(7-*
(n-) . .

cohyre m =n
Pa)
S
3 x312 Jhs s
Poissen o l i l l a l u e

32

an Poessem o e i b e i l e r n

PO)
ruedioi =

y olel
meam

2 (2-1)

( )
= p
2
Varuanuce, a Pocss v e dibubulen
2
3t d >ruler VauLame
2

m P

2c )

= eC-)

o-2)

-2)

+m

3ut 2

Vanamea

-z2 Slandarsl dercaluer

NemaL ( yaussa)Dieulreuliern

paramelve te and l
mal Vubndee, w

(x)
O

() Jhe raph t ait


Cywe. uen hlos e cwwe ts y vn milbac
The mta
man

Man h e miapovnt
(2) Jo nvvmal diibubuhem meam = madan made.
(3) The mumal cwwwe vctinal nf rily 2 e t
he - aeis
ouchamg
(4) The ewwe g closur amal clswe e
mos
-aris as it
owayrem e meam

() The oal a e a
unclvr he cwwe s lakem as "" The
mean duinds hui arua imlo 2qral
(6) The ales.
brebalilil pueperdenal ls e aea
()
6rube3 -u knnon as stöndard
(8) r a amdoncl nwemal aualle mRar =
0_ amd
andarrd devralee isI
() Abua umdee he cwwe
awa
m - te 0 t O.5 amd The
em 0 to o
alse O. 5
amd slardard devrali8
Meam a Nomal 2sri bule
Meam
-4(
t 2

Mepn-
leam
et t) a l t
tow24y)e"t'at

TT
O
77 (

aua cc
Normal Diabuhn
A)
ott= -

T 4 lt t 2/2ust
26

+o + 2
t
T 2tdt
erj
t a t
+ 26/
NTT

uamce
Slandavaderalen
(1
be
Morkelf, m
roblem, os solved hy c v l a v e la m
slalis as drurhatd alarls rom a

test e teps Vee 9


a slzeotSere
husleps
ard 2
s a m s hmgl
lackeward. tol zi 9k he
e are

prwcadeng A5
a m as cenpletely mdependert e he
a t the ebuunkeard oflii d
ahat i he ralabill, d r u t n a l e r m 2ukhuh
v l l eeach his
taerN stops
a dislance frerr e lamp post
random ds plocomenls (g
parlicle aundergoeng hysicalslual
olerr)
a
2onul Zalis
Breruar dumkarads
ovemmemli
Pala le a
A u c c s L U n e

osidee a palice umdirga. Tre dmerse)ahi

dsplacemenis eack hngh L um


rebabibil4 that afb N esuch duipla cermerol
7m.l wtue is m an
ahislarec
arb cle wll Ae at
a

degir? e reghl
ausbacerenlá
t he bR
e
amd lept be aml 2 apecluwel
N = ntN2
The met iplacamal (sa4) he
m.l (n,- ) l = -7.)) l = 2r-N)l

ht relabibihat aliblaeernar.Z i s e
be
ns, i frobalill, hat dipla cerert i i l i
agh; q
andr, lë
The prebal.z n, sltps
bo e rujlt
h umber dihnct osiillas ti N

Thuu, he prnbalil , daiplacervrorls t e


rught amd n2

mn
Iovut,-72
ama n,= N +m
hu he robatillg hal arti ch will b
alir N diplaceoxensl gwee l
N
N

( N2 )
h e neomalizng censlar

Takrig kog arulhn


br Ponl) =r e + ln N!-Nr 2 nN4) -

on ( )
i n g s mula, we get
n Pm.) nc + N&N -N -

N n 2

()(Nt+(N)
()+ )
Plm. 2)=n e +N r N -

Ki N Lr2
-

N+ nN t N
- ( N - ) n (n-g

.n Plm) = lnc +N rAl lm 2 N


-

nN-
n P m L) = n EN
N +m)

N+m N-9
PCm)= NEL 2 )
N+m

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