L3 2023 Formula Sheet
L3 2023 Formula Sheet
2023
Level 3 - Formula Sheet
SID115570034.
This document should be used in conjunction with the corresponding readings in the 2023 Level 3 CFA® Program curriculum.
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1
Last Revised: 05/10/2022
𝐸(𝑅" ) = 𝑉!" + 𝐷!
where:
𝑉!" = Aggregate market value of equity
GDPt = the level of nominal GDP
𝑆!# = the share of profits in the economy (earnings/GDP)
PEt = the P/E ratio
Dt = dividends
where:
i* = the target nominal policy rate
rneutral = the real policy rate that would be targeted if growth is expected to be at trend and inflation on target
𝑌6" = expected GDP growth rate
𝑌6!'"%* = the observed GDP trend growth rate
𝜋" = the expected inflation rate
𝜋!('+"! = the target inflation rate
2
Last Revised: 05/10/2022
National Accounting identity:
(X – M) = (S – I) + (T – G)
where:
(X – M) = net exports
S = savings
I = investment
(T – G) = government surplus
YTM = PV(CF) = P0
If investment horizon < MacDur E(RB) < YTM if rates Capital g/L dominates
E(RB) > YTM if rates ¯
= MacDur E(RB) » YTM
> MacDur E(RB) > YTM if rates
reinvestment dominates
E(RB) < YTM if rates ¯
SID115570034.
E(Rb) = Real risk-free interest rate + Inflation premium + Term premium + Credit premium+
Liquidity Premium
-$ (/0+)
𝑃, = '2+
where: g = the growth rate in nominal GDP
Solving for r:
-%
𝑟= 3$
+𝑔 r = dividend yield + capital appreciation
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Grinold-Kroner model:
𝐷
𝐸(𝑅" ) ≈ + (%∆𝐸 − %∆𝑆) + %∆𝑃𝐸
𝑃
where:
E(Re) = the expected rate of return on equity
D/P -%DS = the expected cash flow return
%ΔS = the expected %’age change in number of shares outstanding
%ΔE = the expected nominal earnings growth rate
%ΔPE = the expected repricing return
Combining both:
𝑅𝑃4 = 𝜔 ∙ 𝑅𝑃456 + (1 − 𝜔) ∙ 𝑅𝑃48
where:
𝑅𝑃()* = Risk premium on asset class i in a fully integrated market
SID115570034. 𝑅𝑃( = Risk premium on asset class i in a fully segmented market
σi = standard deviation of asset class i
ρi,GIM = correlation between asset class i and the global investable market
+,
% !"& = SRGIM = Sharpe ratio of the global investable market (estimated at about 0.28)
-!"
𝜔 = the degree of global integration
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Forecasting Real Estate Returns:
Capitalization Rates:
Long-term
𝐸(𝑅'" ) = 𝐶𝑎𝑝 𝑅𝑎𝑡𝑒 + 𝑁𝑂𝐼 𝑔𝑟𝑜𝑤𝑡ℎ 𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑒 = 𝑁𝑂𝐼P𝑃 + 𝑔
,
Short-term
𝐸(𝑅'" ) = 𝐶𝑎𝑝 𝑅𝑎𝑡𝑒 + 𝑁𝑂𝐼 𝑔𝑟𝑜𝑤𝑡ℎ 𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑒 = 𝑁𝑂𝐼P𝑃 + 𝑔 − %∆ Q𝑁𝑂𝐼P𝑃 R
, ,
where:
𝜋. = inflation if foreign country
𝜋/ = inflation in domestic country
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Forecasting Volatility:
No formula is required.
Major points:
• Sample VCV matrix is an unbiased estimate of the true VCV structure (it will be correct
on average but requires large samples to become precise)
o Sample VCVs cannot be used for large numbers of asset classes
o Subject to substantial sampling error
• Linear factor model-based VCVs use a smaller set of factors (as opposed to asset classes)
o VCV is biased and inconsistent, but estimated with precision
• Shrinkage estimation is a weighted average of a sample VCV and a target VCV that
reflects assumed prior knowledge of the true VCV structure
• ARCH models are used for time series with non-constant volatility
where:
Um = the investor’s utility for asset mix (allocation) m
Rm = the return for asset mix m
λ = the investor’s risk aversion coefficient
2
𝜎1 = the expected variance of return for asset mix m
Marginal contribution to risk (MCTR) = Asset beta relative to portfolio × Portfolio standard
SID115570034.
deviation
?9
𝑈= = 𝐸4𝑅@,= 8 − 0.005𝜆𝜎 > (𝑅@,= )
where:
3+
𝑈1 = the surplus objective function’s expected value for a particular asset mix m
Rs,m = the expected surplus return for asset mix m
Such that Rs,m = (Change in asset value – Change in liability value)/(Initial asset value)
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Risk parity:
1 >
𝑤4 × 𝐶𝑜𝑣(𝑟4 , 𝑟3 ) = 𝜎
𝑛 3
where
wi = the weight of asset i
Cov(ri,rP) = the covariance of asset i with the portfolio
n = the number of assets
𝜎,2 = the variance of the portfolio
where:
pd = the proportion of rpt attributed to dividend income
pa = the proportion of rpt attributed to price appreciation
td = the dividend tax rate
tcg = the capital gains tax rate
σat = σpt(1 – t)
where:
σat = the expected after-tax standard deviation
SID115570034. σpt = the expected pre-tax standard deviation
Rat = Rpt/(1 – t)
where
Rat = the after-tax rebalancing range
Rpt = the pre-tax rebalancing range
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Option Strategies
Covered Calls:
Protective Put:
Bull Spread:
SID115570034.
Bear Spread:
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Straddle:
Zero-Cost Collars:
𝐶ℎ𝑎𝑛𝑔𝑒 𝑖𝑛 𝑑𝑒𝑙𝑡𝑎
𝐺𝑎𝑚𝑚𝑎 =
𝐶ℎ𝑎𝑛𝑔𝑒 𝑖𝑛 𝑢𝑛𝑑𝑒𝑟𝑙𝑦𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑝𝑟𝑖𝑐𝑒
Volatility:
>E>
𝜎(%%&() (%) = 𝜎=B%!C)D (%)_ >/
SID115570034.
>E>
𝜎=B%!C)D (%) = 𝜎(%%&() (%)/_ >/
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6-F94 26-F95
𝑁8 = Q 6-F9'
R (𝑀𝑉3 )
where:
NS = Notional amount of the swap
MDUR = modified duration
T = target
P = portfolio
S = Swap
MV = market value
where:
BPV = basis point value
DT = Target duration
SID115570034. DP = Portfolio duration
DCTD = Cheapest to deliver duration
CF = conversion factor
Currency Forwards:
89:;<=
/045 I J
>?$
𝐹3< = 𝑆3< c 89:;<= d
G G /04@ I J
>?$
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Number of equity futures:
8
𝑁; = K
where:
Nf = number of futures contracts
S = Market value to be hedged
F = Value of a futures contract = F0 ´ q
(q = multiplier)
L4 2L' 8
𝑁; = @ LA
B QK R
where:
b = beta
T = target
S = stock portfolio
f = futures contract
Cash equitization:
L 8
𝑁; = @L4 B QK R since bcash = 0
A
Variance swaps:
! "(!
SID115570034. 𝑉𝑎𝑟𝑆𝑤𝑎𝑝! = 𝑉𝑎𝑟𝑖𝑎𝑛𝑐𝑒 𝑁𝑜𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑎𝑙 × 𝑃𝑉𝐹 × 4" (𝑟𝑒𝑎𝑙𝑖𝑧𝑒𝑑 𝑣𝑜𝑙($,!) )' + "
(𝑖𝑚𝑝𝑙𝑖𝑒𝑑 𝑣𝑜𝑙(!,") )' − 𝑆𝑡𝑟𝑖𝑘𝑒 ' >
where:
)*+, ./!0/.,1
𝑉𝑎𝑟𝑖𝑎𝑛𝑐𝑒 𝑛𝑜𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑎𝑙 = '×3!405*
and the strike is expressed as volatility, not variance
/
𝑃𝑉𝐹 = B<CD
/0'A M N
>?$
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Last Revised: 05/10/2022
𝜎 > (𝑤/ 𝑅/ + 𝑤> 𝑅> ) ≈ 𝑤/> 𝜎 > (𝑅/ ) + 𝑤>> 𝜎 > (𝑅> ) + 2𝑤/ 𝜎(𝑅/ )𝑤> 𝜎(𝑅> )𝜌(𝑅/ , 𝑅> )
where:
RDC = the domestic currency return (in percent)
RFC,i = the foreign-currency return on the i-th foreign asset
RFX,i = the appreciation of the i-th foreign currency against the domestic currency
wi = the portfolio weights of the foreign-currency assets such that ∑J(KL 𝑤( = 1
Where:
Yield Income (or Current Yield) = Annual coupon payment/Current bond price
Note that the rolldown return assumes zero interest rate volatility – assumes an unchanged yield curve over the
strategy horizon.
E(ΔPrice based on investor’s views of benchmark yield or in yield spreads) = [-MD × ΔYield] + [½ ×
Convexity ×(ΔYield)2]
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Using Leverage:
Note:
1) if rI > rB, then the second term is positive and leverage increases returns
2) if rI < rB, then the second term is negative and leverage decreases returns
where:
rp = return on the levered portfolio
rI =return on the invested funds (investment returns)
VE = value of portfolio’s equity
VB = borrowed funds
rB = borrowing rate (cost of borrowing)
______________________________________________________________________________
Repurchase agreements:
Dollar interest = Principal amount × Repo rate × (Term of repo in days/365)
Securities lending:
Rebate rate = Collateral earnings rate – Securities lending rate
where:
We have ModDur .
MVb = Market Value of the bond (or portfolio)
𝑀𝑎𝑐𝐷𝑢𝑟
𝐵𝑃𝑉SB'!;B)4B = m o × 𝑀𝑉S × 0.0001
(1 + 𝑐𝑎𝑠ℎ 𝑓𝑙𝑜𝑤 𝑦𝑖𝑒𝑙𝑑 𝑝𝑒𝑟 𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑖𝑜𝑑)
where:
The term in brackets converts MacDur to ModDur
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Last Revised: 05/10/2022
𝑆𝑤𝑎𝑝 𝐵𝑃𝑉
𝐴𝑠𝑠𝑒𝑡 𝐵𝑃𝑉 + m𝑁𝑃 × o = 𝐿𝑖𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝐵𝑃𝑉
100
where:
ΔAsset yields, ΔHedge yields and ΔLiability yields are measured in bps
/ ∆3H
𝐾𝑒𝑦𝑅𝑎𝑡𝑒𝐷𝑢𝑟# = − 3H × ∆'M
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Last Revised: 05/10/2022
ASW (asset swap spread): (Corporate bond coupon – swap fixed rate) + MRR
XS ≈ (s × t) – (ΔS × SD)
EXS ≈ (s × t) – (ΔS × SD) – (t × POD × LGD)
where:
XS = annualized excess spread (return)
EXS = annualized expected excess spread (return)
s = the spread at the beginning of the holding period
t = holding period expressed in fractions of a year
Δs = the change in the credit spread during the holding period
SD = spread duration
POD = annualized expected probability of default
LGD = expected loss severity
Upfront Premium:
None when CDS Spread = Fixed coupon
Buyer receives when CDS Spread < Fixed Coupon (premium)
Seller receives when CDS Spread > Fixed coupon (discount)
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Last Revised: 05/10/2022
1
𝐸𝑓𝑓𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑖𝑣𝑒 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑠𝑡𝑜𝑐𝑘𝑠 = = 1/𝐻𝐻𝐼
∑%4X/ 𝑤4>
where:
wi = the weight of stock I in the index/portfolio
HHI = Herfindahl-Hirschman Index
𝑟! = 𝛼 + w 𝛽 @ 𝑅!@ + 𝜀!
@X/
where:
rt = the fund return within the period ending at time t
𝑅!N = the return of style index s in the same period
βs = the fund exposure to style s (with constraints ∑1 N N
NKL 𝛽 = 1 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝛽 > 0 for a long-only portfolio)
α = a constant often interpreted as the value added by the fund manager
εt = the residual return that cannot be explained by the styles used in the analysis
𝑅Y = w 𝛥𝑊4 𝑅4
4X/
where:
Ri = the return on security i
ΔWi = the active weight (Wpi – Wbi)
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Last Revised: 05/10/2022
Three sources of active return:
𝑅Y = w4𝛽S# − 𝛽T# 8 × 𝐹# + (𝛼 + 𝜀)
where:
∑C𝛽O# − 𝛽P# E × 𝐹# = exposure to reward factors
(α + ε) = alpha + luck (the part of the return that cannot be explained by exposure to rewarded factors)
βpk = the sensitivity of the portfolio (p) to each rewarded factor (k)
βbk = the sensitivity of the benchmark to each rewarded factor
Fk = the return of each rewarded factor
%
1
𝐴𝑐𝑡𝑖𝑣𝑒 𝑆ℎ𝑎𝑟𝑒 = w |𝑊𝑒𝑖𝑔ℎ𝑡SB'!;B)4B,4 − 𝑊𝑒𝑖𝑔ℎ𝑡T"%PC=('#,4 |
2
4X/
Active risk:
Active risk of a portfolio is a function of the variance attributed to the factor exposures and of the variance attributed
to the idiosyncratic risk
𝑉S = w w 𝑥4 𝑥\ 𝐶4\
4X/ \X/
SID115570034.
𝐶𝑉4 = w 𝑥4 𝐶4S
4X/
where:
xj = the asset’s weight in the portfolio
Cij = the covariance of returns between asset i and asset j
Cip = the covariance of returns between asset i and the portfolio
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Last Revised: 05/10/2022
The segmentation of portfolio variance into two components: variance attributed to factor
exposure and variance unexplained:
%
where:
xi = the asset’s weight in the portfolio
bi = the benchmark weight in asset i
RCij = the covariance of relative returns between asset I and asset j
RCip = the covariance of relative returns between asset i and the portfolio
where:
RHF = return to hedge fund i
Dt = dummy variable for time period t – the conditional
18
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where:
rDS = de-smoothed return
rt = return in period t
s = serial correlation measure
Therefore:
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Last Revised: 05/10/2022
Accumulation:
Tax-exempt: FV = (1 + R)n
Taxable: 𝐹𝑉 = (1 + 𝑅’)%
Tax-deferred: FV = (1 + R)n(1 – t)
%"! +(4%@()B@@"@)
𝑝𝑜𝑡𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑖𝑎𝑙 𝑐𝑎𝑝𝑖𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑔𝑎𝑖𝑛𝑠 𝑒𝑥𝑝𝑜𝑠𝑢𝑟𝑒 = !B!() %"! (@@"!@
Tax-Free Gift:
𝐹𝑉54;! [1 + 𝑟+ 41 − 𝑡+ 8]%
𝑅𝑉a(_K'""54;! = =
𝐹𝑉G"`&"@! [1 + 𝑟" (1 − 𝑡" )]% (1 − 𝑇" )
where:
rg = pre-tax return to the gift recipient
tg = effective tax rate on investment for the gift recipient
re = pre-tax return to the estate making the gift
te = effective tax rate on investment for the estate making the gift
Te = estate tax if asset is bequeathed at death
where:
SID115570034.
Tg = the tax rate applicable to gifts
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Last Revised: 05/10/2022
where:
mNPV0 = the mortality-weighted net present value at Time 0
bt = the future expected vested benefit
r = a discount rate - should vary based on the relative riskiness of the future expected benefit payment
Y ∆4
𝐷O = 𝐷Y QO R − 𝐷? Q∆DR QO R
? Over modest yield changes, the volatility of equity capital
is a function of the degree of leverage, modified duration
of the assets and liabilities, and the correlation of changes
where: in yields of assets and liabilities
DE = duration of equity
DA = duration of assets
DL = duration of liabilities
i = interest rate on liabilities
y = yields
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Last Revised: 05/10/2022
expressed as volatilities:
> >
>
𝜎∆S = 4𝐴P𝐸 8 𝜎∆8
>
+ 4𝐿P𝐸 8 𝜎∆T
>
− 24𝐴P𝐸 84𝐿P𝐸 8𝜌𝜎∆8 𝜎∆T
S 8 T 8 T
>
Note, if r = 1, 𝜎∆S shrinks to a minimal amount, even for high leverage
S
where:
SID115570034. sj = number of shares executed
pj = price for the jth trade
S = total order shares
Pd = decision price
Pn = current price
p0 = arrival price (the price at the time the order was released to the market for execution)
(3b 23 ∗ )
𝐶𝑜𝑠𝑡 (𝑏𝑝𝑠) = 𝑆𝑖𝑑𝑒 × 3∗
× 10,000 𝑏𝑝𝑠
where:
Side = -1 for a sell, +1 for a buy
𝑃N = average price
P* = reference price
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Last Revised: 05/10/2022
Allocation:
Brinson-Hood-Beebower: (Pw – Bw)rB
Brinson-Fachler: (Pw – Bw)(rB - RB)
SID115570034.
where:
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Last Revised: 05/10/2022
P=M+S+A
P = portfolio
M = market
S = style
A = active return
Note: You are not expected to calculate the attributions – you are only expected to be able to
interpret the output of an attribution analysis.
9V 2'A
Sharpe Ratio = :V
9V 2'A
Treynor ratio = LV
9 29
Information Ratio = :('V 2'@ )
5 @
Appraisal Ratio
d
𝐴𝑅 = :W
where:
a = Jensen’s alpha
se = standard error of the regression
9V 2'4
Sortino Ratio = :7
SID115570034. where:
sD = semideviation
rT = target rate of return
Capture Ratios
where:
R(m,t) = return for manager m in time period t
R(B,t) = return on the benchmark for time period t
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Last Revised: 05/10/2022
X#$ Y X# ∗
𝑀𝑎𝑥𝑖𝑚𝑢𝑚 𝐷𝑟𝑎𝑤𝑑𝑜𝑤𝑛 = S X# ∗
$
, 0U
$
H% 2H$ 𝑉/
𝑟! = H$
= P𝑉 − 1
,
Modified Dietz:
H 2H$ 2UK
𝑟! = H 0∑%[
$ &\%(UK& ×g& )
SID115570034.
Modified IRR:
𝑉/ = ∑%4X/[𝐶𝐹4 × (1 + 𝑟)g& ] + 𝑉, (1 + 𝑟)
25