Von We Robability & robabitity DVishibul\ Syllabuo - Pobability basics Theovems’ 00 Prabability Bayes rheorem Rardom variables Mathematical Cxpectat ion, _ Test_of, hypoth esis: Chi- Square test, t- Hoot. —obabilit |_dishibuions : Binomial ,Poisson, torma x | nihan._CProbabiliy) = ck uo _suppos®, we have an expenimen its —ssamplt—space—s—hoa— flit! g—mang which 1 Ii) fo _occut_, th’n jor San event A prob abi- D wy oy Ai PCA) = pumben of elements in A Numbey of elements ins &| Banic de terms - O| Eapeximent - i ——___Aio_expenimen} is a__ mechanism whose outcome 1s | _uncenlain Acie tee ca —@_ Somple_s pe a | __ fer_a given _parncular ex peniment.. the _collechs | oll_ possible oulcomen_is_catled sample space. aoe pbinls = | hp_lementor_a_memben_9 the sample space is. aaa called _sample—pa ink oeane— likey The oubcomen o trial one sosd bt My, : + them cannot be expected 3p tossing on unbiaatd Gn He = . ue a Hr, Equaly needy “al i @._ fvont { __| ne Subset 1 ' colied on evenk + “Independent event = ei “+ Two events are anidets be_ndependent taken te _@ s me | —tulcomen. 24, one doea_nal—¢ ect 4, is not meal q 4 (in_is_tos fi Aden pendent othe outcome ot ora #010 @ Decendent eyonts - Ty. the _pecuroorés or am event bal op sechs the eceunance o_othen atone in othen oe 1 | i PCA) 4 P(A) = | - Noto thot _p < p(ayey apo [ ar succeps _, f = failure | sj 3s ‘ _ pCsuccess.)* 8 - ps? Gailure) - J24 The “r-succeos 1o.'n' hials she numben oF jnioN= == a eee = for 2 evenis A&B, AVG Ccalled the union o, A&G) “int een alten neh pe either A_ov * am Tnieisection - | _ for 9 events A&B, ANG denoten _tho collechon © = | ____all sloments which ape prenent io both A &@ + Mutually excludive = a The owlcomen of hial are said to be mutuau —tatlusive iy the occumince Of one of them will stoF they oulcomen ¢:0- 9 evenks —___ A & 8 ore sald to” be dis{oin!or mutually exclusive — Lang: Z | —| “we. et head or_tail but — 00 tossing colo, eithen ee - Frbouskye Ce ssible _oubcom o_o}, 0 nial _Ce- Sample space ge tthe ae woof evonhg 2 ==@ Pls)=1 & PCH) =O @® for o disjoiny sets Ay &hy— PCN, Aad = PCRD4 PCAg)-= PCAN Ag) Cevonts are Not muon excludive..) _|_-A box contains lo black & (0 “ubite_balls find | the pusbay | -*b drawing 2 balls of, the same colou. — —_————black— ate —Trobobility “oy eauiog si allem Oe : ee a — Dobability of drawio.g 2 white halis ea: L 5 d Dey 1 ek ae bal o | 1Oey 2» 10 _4 3%, 20, 20, 7 QOKIS ‘9 ? [ath contains 4 white & 9 black balls 2°9 bag __| tontains 3 9} each colou) Ab i fH brandi _&G ball is then drawn of m_tho b hoseo- _\Whot isthe eee hat the ball drawn 1s hike £— 2 Tone axe ore 9. mullually evelunive ca | — = | © When af ig\chogeg. | @ When 29 bag is chosen a aa Now the chance. choosing the 12! hag sta a ij Ahi Bite eee Me rowing a while ball is 4/6 Hence, the pol bay fas eb dating 0 while ball_jyom is hag_is bheee ies a OR > addi hon B= muthplcaron “Similarly, the Probability 0, drawing a white ball wom and Se is 1 ya 4 yD 4 "pom zi a 6 bb {vents are exclusive the required Probability is Mu Cedi se = 4 atwalt ea & Q are 9 Independent events then — P (ag) = PCA) PCA) =| Me ip_ ar roig ine ie B ane ‘ane 2 & I g 0 eons ee 4 athe gualigen pion h pee als ay 5 ye foil 19 PEs 2x cs » = = aa 9 Boba Mi Are at siti PCa) > 4 PCB) = 8 Poe PCS) = | There or —Possibliied of pans ag _al es pans og RA pilin pi ee eS) mw 7Foti ‘b Pans = 4 bx oe s ~*~ ‘Cendikonal Pabability ai _ leh A ke aap _1 & & |e) p(B) #0 7 5 A given 8, denated ecale ee e ere ec es) PQ xT, 2 & G av independent sols then pale). C2) PC B ' PCa) = PCA) + ds cand uslhr'ch Isking when WET, iene ner fale gry, one oa pe caret GQ. Drow a fai whichis aa hon wWKT it tg mat @ queen — Moons oCcuvance 01 ovent~A given that event @ had —— occurred b 4 2) Hee A ob 2 4 0) drauot i i ! Ue dn a quoen od |_k0 6 = al king Gods) N4 n eon Cards 3 ta fat i aa ' —OCB0B) = => P(an ga) = 450 { PC AIG) = or ee | PCBs "aso 12 le SL —we q [ | | DONT | rye i — pale Two evedls A & Bare independent then @_ The aveol A & even) & ave independent Q. \@ Ac & Rare indepencen | © Ac & 8 are independen | KI fo. mutual orcluniven'e. p(nNG)= 0, PC par) =PCAUBI=PCMIVP CB, Ts p,.8,¢ ave mutually. exclusive re PNBNC «db Theo PLAUBUC) = PCAD 4. PCB) PCC ae y & madam} appear jor an intenvieo Tho pw abi ity — be proposes xsaeelechon ist _& madam_¥s | Selechon. Find she pobobitiy that ony one oy them ts selected, ‘ethal_1s_the probability hal_alleabt one k selected & Given, PCA : 1, PO) : L, P(A)= aL S. 7 Ss ZF CF) stot S j1@-—1o Kind. pohahiliy Ahab oly one is selected « ce eithen X oy ler Kz x is seid & Nis nol selected. 6 = js selocled g * iso} selected PCA) = PCA) PCY) 2 ty y= 4 : ~ 2 as" P(a) = PCy) Px) = by 6. Spe SS;P_( either x or YO 0 (Aor B). i = PCAUB) = PCA) + PCO) PCADB, eu) 6 =o = 10 oe as! 35 3s 7 To ad probabilit ~that_oLleaot_one is. selected — Longline is. os aj thet selected. -P Coone_is selected) = eCX)-0CL pee oy 7 as: —$—~ P Cotleant ono is selected) = I-24 2h 3s 3s - it b u babi 5 YY i : thoF is ki, x Probability Dishrbutions - a Binomiat o Dishibubion Binomial Diskibwion occuns i'n gosaoy chance Coolio die) quo ly inspechions. Ce O10 C| i ‘ pa apiiah_oy pal ici & “S han only 2 possible oulcomen pans_or aul a. ae ee ee jr inde endent Kials 0 an unt A F = ho \oy oO = 2 eas probabilityWel 9, “ Gal 1 ' BD: ¢ We pe PO: = Ne p y p42) gt where 1 = 0,12, nt | Nol - Pry is genciaty wiillen ad PG) @ o£ p ceculying Ip Ihe binomial dist are alied saramered op She! dish tbuhoo © po- 0} “bials ie [oie |@ Pach eo hfal__has only 9: possible oulcomed, guccens & jolene. __@_p-& gq ere_constanis yyr_all Wwials —_ | Lous mean oj; binomial dishibwion oo : Be 6 = Navlance. a A= pp, = py Note - Y-GL 9 meapure op skewneos of Ihe Jep4 binomial disWibusioo 4), ped, skewnens is +ve. 2 — J \ p>, skewnens is ve V 2 — Ty, Pod Skemp es 1s 200 B2. 3+ A-sp4 ive meaoure o} Kustosis ee ss ee: Ub Cong. | as ae yt ae thy —_| PC Xs vs a _Q@_ Sum_o, of probabiliheo sal possible. a ‘ P(x=0) 4 P(xe 4 “PKs De. | 8 Paobiy “oy getting — Lt “Succes. _hials i : 1 @ Probi of ge ng —otleanl x succeasea in big. = goes Ket PCyerti) + P(asyto) «. 4+0(X= 0) =t- P(g er). = l= [TP (120) +P (ret - + P (yey-1) | hugs (X20) P= 4 +P Cte ou =j)=P (% 1] = 1-[POrvertD +P (xevto 4.» 4 P(yen)] +t@ sD Do} tho_ba IS tina srs Given ong won p=6 \ ee Of, -a_deyech holt ts o-). — n i. @_mean. : © Noviance mea: p= OO KO-J = Ao SD 2 sINpg_= Juoe xox 24 66 - llpins lors tho 7 hen oy 4 ina SUDL on aN average _iJhot wan the probabili conway of 6 Ships uy ship amiving Sa)6! sunt 2 2 ou | tH hi 3fA2 p—|__. 47443 783 = 10240 = oe 014 fur US qa20°), 0 bolts pro duced by a machine ave do ech yg | Delermine the prebabiney ho tout Dj, tt bells Chosen ab sandom. _O_one_is he = _@® atmos) 2 “bolis ave deve. + Oe = —--- fh pee Ea ols. pu roduced Pp2ao . a pep = 4 | 100 = LQ P(a2t) = Dept g° a _ u < p Ly | I | | [ga | @zere aw ded. plre 0) = 4G, (o.ay*l0-8)*- 408) 4= 0: (@ plxeol = plo)+ ped + PCa) - = Ke pag hs te pigs “Cy p a : = 04096 + 04096 + 4X3 tase — z QS Cs: 20-4778 SEF Noe - otbpihmt tet Nels thea the_binomsad - ENC Pg) 9 5 N Pre)«Jo 'Is-O Lets produced by a machine Ie fy d are daechve dha ihe probabil dha ou of -Snivels hash a yaad on— sd m pone will _be_de echve_ ] “one will be depeche 1 e. 6) Ableaa! hoo b+ _toill pF tll be_dejetiee —_ , rivels produced are eect zispsog. ype gor’ - 7 eiS@i(e acorgye! = o5905 - Me prt: me Se,(o1y' Co.9y4 o 928. “ @ PCx=0 whe ~© one.) = 1- Piedad) =~ Le(z=ods eres) = 0.0814 _ = $a dicen are_Hbrown 724 Kmen.. How many hired Ae you expect Ableaok three die bo show peo Sty. = 1-[o-saos +0:328'] _—_—ifL pig]? SN EPO): PEP (2g) | The expected number *h hoe ey asleank Ines dic showing eS = / ee ee 2 ee a po) = _N Tp@ + “ply + p(s) 40] oa =a} ey attsy st 8y fe) jt 6 (rys /o\' + Se, / 1) Sets) ta? ty] | pear |G et el oye bh eo | a6 [ 313) 412) a | eiioe eee cn 28 él 0] J _4 = fisoreoti tid | = 293. : x Poisson dishiburloo = 7 = __—abobilipy of, 1 succunsen {02 tials Pa) = eis a) Also, PG +) Zi PO) 7 2h for Poisson's dishibulcon ~ fp ee ee ‘vasiance a4, poisson dish {buhon. Ge Nae3D 2 : Inp | find the probability th guhng a head in 6 tosses. j-o},-4..p¢ corn C bd. Pz fe -Gt be Da 6 MRT pes, De peje = ee Plu) 2 Pas w= Se, Goya 3... Ten percent oy screws. duct_in.a_centain factory to be _ deyechve -) the probability that in 4 samp¥ oy jo cttw schasen_at random, Jy | a Pp ant yeh, elo, ¥=o. Be pots) = My pt or w Laie eg ——_________— & senjOX) gtk LPI to? —~G | the prab.abi lity shat 4 “hom dkopped. pom the plane will shike the targets Six bombs ane dropped fe _ Pie Sing the_probatiliny thalo {roa 2 wil) Shike the etnae = 6 ~ @ Nloasy 9 wilt shike dhe iang ee. 2 me op road aceidents follows 4 Pols sion -dishibut tog Lwith Mean s find the probabil! Ahot ina cerias “empath numb en of accidents on. he hehnay th 0 _@ Aes than 3 2 HELO hehneon @ & 5. 6 more thang. 3] Given 225. a by Poieson's dish bu16 0 ms | v1 _@_ lads thon _% P(x ¢3)_ = P(o) + PCIt Prod | E ps0ese eezilose een OF 7 — - | ru a eT sO 4 Sto Sdpia PDs PSAP Co) 4 8) = 1 PSs). aie [eco PC t PO 40G)I. : Ly peter eta aoe 3) = 1-0-0690 = 6 73S0. 2 Vissian _Dishbublon_ Tn _this_dishi bute onthe pobabl liga}, a succes iq mn hols is adishibuhoo. Man = Us 22 Op 2 variance °b a Se oe 60s 62 Ppp _________ 7h the psbabiliy that_an individual 8 SYS 0 bag ‘achion. pom a “ertaio injection _is_0 005 deleomnig, the prob tlily thas _¢ 1000 individual, tog Ahan 2 individuato “oil lye 0) G bad reachon “Moet 20.6 ole N= 2000 man 2 = Op. 2.9000 X 0:00} = 2 Pay: ee" vl —plmore than _@ individual ssill_syyyond hod — __reach‘on > ely72) Pitrocolzye oy _ - a hhrmrt~—™——CCUCCOCOC_CtCitéidwss t= [Poy +P 4 p02) 7] SzIn a find C129? C Se) pois son dis Wi buen, by poisson dishibubon , { zrer ere) if PO 21 alls 2 9) Given, POE 4 zeae 926% i yw (re 3) = 0.061% Mortnodchishibuwhon = When ois lange 2_valueo b p 4 are pi ‘sonal The sir limibo “p10. oy 8 Bl colled —noinal Athibubon. is. queen by, ——_— 1S, rt sha ficmiscs ae On where, we mean, © The Ree “he She Normal curve whith is ae non! red “dishibuboo aoe ~ variable aosume aif values fr0.00 Op oe ae normal clishibubon- is caued.— gymmeh ical POP meaner) )eme aesLYST NOD, 5 Oe |. — _——— 7 oO : 2 the area und & normal Curve = SuM_0 i ah —— a acl ee the probabil eee eee [ atzez: A =O fo 2A) = Paya tio, >) Lee aons | _ . be the normal _yonigtion Zz, 22 P(otz2z,) 2 A (220 te 2:7,) = A(oéZ £29) -Ah CoK Pat 22) As see, ae £7) ae = 05- AZ) -o5- 8 nie FET) T= Oo AQ) =P (0424 2,) : = hfans) 2 ACz,), A C25) heree pC2, 42425) = G2, AAC). A299 tnC2,) os Case 41 Hei iso students jolla Os normal dishibuboon with _medt 430 cr & “variance oem. Tn a schoo! ~ Lip .0.0 students . how many any Ae eepecied be pave | hélgbis obove 200 om Se _ z1415) & (A 203840) ne a Given mean = Y= (90 em [p62 = 79. =) 6 = J70 = 960 tn pie sa eee2 2 Keay - Toolo = 1 i: see ree rt S76 — = ? Given A_(22 L135) 20-3840 — — i ae probability peepee fo have ht co 900 Cm 18. a P_Cx>200) = e(z>1 ur) sos -A C195) 2 = os =O 3846 — PaO. (lice Ex pocked No -0} sludent 1 = $60 0-16 | = 99.% & 4% sludont g Tn Gn inigence bed adimioshahor ko topo student: Area o-TSS = Given mean (yu) =49, cz04 N2(000 Pp (40 éydey) Por 2 2 ey ee sy 7 ' = aoa BO- 49 a: O4S ny =o 6. ge 24Probab tity op students P Goo at Sh) oe =p cos £2 $08) _ = p(os2so-5) BC = 2 {area ep undo 2=0.5 Po = js 9 Cotas) - _ = 0-353 : - Ao oy, students = [000 x0.353 +353 a4 N=-20 (pienso Ole gil-o-65 =OSy. "10d t : P (x2t) } | = e(O+ plo) 4 PCs) + + Plo) - = 1 = pCréi) | = 1 =( P(e) an eee | fees os {= 1-26 (oosP(6jr)*- = S- (0.45) - & | Pre = De pg Ot : _een x dp co po] —— eo.) + 4G, to ato] | me ie 1x4 si - 7 r nes, PiréD y 14. = Plo) +P Ci) = Dey pegs + 8c pig = He, (0-4)? (0-697 + 5 (0-4)' Cog)": oo} _hoxen =100K0 908 % 24 |