UNCLASSIFIED

F-15 EPAWSS SAR DEC 2022

CLEARED
For Open Publication

Apr 19, 2023

Department of Defense
OFFICE OF PREPUBLICATION AND SECURITY REVIEW

Selected Acquisition Report (SAR)

F-15 Eagle Passive Active Warning Survivability System (F-15

EPAWSS)
FY 2024 President's Budget
Defense Acquisition Visibility Environment
(DAVE)

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Table of Contents

Acronyms and Abbreviations ............................................................................................................................................................3

Pro Information ................................................................................................................................................................................. 5
Responsible Office ............................................................................................................................................................................ 5
Mission and Description ....................................................................................................................................................................6
Executive Summary .......................................................................................................................................................................... 7
Schedule ...........................................................................................................................................................................................10
Performance .....................................................................................................................................................................................11
Acquisition Budget Estimate .........................................................................................................................................................12
Unit Cost ..........................................................................................................................................................................................14
Risks ................................................................................................................................................................................................ 16
Low Rate Initial Production ............................................................................................................................................................ 17
Contracts ..........................................................................................................................................................................................18
Deliveries and Expenditures .............................................................................................................................................................21
Operating and Support Costs ............................................................................................................................................................22

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Common Acronyms and Abbreviations

$B - Billions of Dollars
$K - Thousands of Dollars
$M - Millions of Dollars
ACAT - Acquisition Category
Acq O&M - Acquisition-Related Operations and Maintenance
ADM - Acquisition Decision Memorandum
APB - Acquisition Program Baseline
APPN - Appropriation
APUC - Average Procurement Unit Cost
BA - Budget Authority/Budget Activity
Blk - Block
BY - Base Year
CAPE - Cost Assessment and Program Evaluation
CARD - Cost Analysis Requirements Description
CDD - Capability Development Document
CLIN - Contract Line Item Number
CPD - Capability Production Document
CY - Calendar Year
DAB - Defense Acquisition Board
DAE - Defense Acquisition Executive
DAMIR - Defense Acquisition Management Information Retrieval
DoD - Department of Defense
DSN - Defense Switched Network
EMD - Engineering and Manufacturing Development
EVM - Earned Value Management
FMS - Foreign Military Sales
FOC - Full Operational Capability
FRP - Full Rate Production
FY - Fiscal Year
FYDP - Future Years Defense Program
ICE - Independent Cost Estimate
Inc - Increment
IOC - Initial Operational Capability
JROC - Joint Requirements Oversight Council
KPP - Key Performance Parameter
LRIP - Low Rate Initial Production
MDA - Milestone Decision Authority
MDAP - Major Defense Acquisition Program
MILCON - Military Construction
N/A - Not Applicable
O&M - Operations and Maintenance
O&S - Operating and Support
ORD - Operational Requirements Document
OSD - Office of the Secretary of Defense
PAUC - Program Acquisition Unit Cost
PB - President's Budget

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PE - Program Element
PEO - Program Executive Officer
PM - Program Manager
POE - Program Office Estimate
RDT&E - Research, Development, Test, and Evaluation
SAR - Selected Acquisition Report
SCP - Service Cost Position
TBD - To Be Determined
TY - Then Year
U.S. - United States
UCR - Unit Cost Reporting
USD(A&S) - Under Secretary of Defense (Acquisition and Sustainment)
USD(AT&L) - Under Secretary of Defense (Acquisition, Technology and Logistics)

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Program Information
Program Name
F-15 Eagle Passive Active Warning Survivability System (F-15 EPAWSS)

DoD Component
Air Force

Responsible Office
Program Manager (Acting)
Name: Jimmy C. Bailey
Date Assigned: Acting
Address: 235 Byron Street
Suite 19A
Robins AFB, GA 31098
Phone: (478) 926-2902

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Mission and Description

F-15 EPAWSS

The F-15 is a versatile 4th-generation fighter aircraft and is central to Combatant Commanders' ability to fulfill the National
Defense Strategy (Joint Lethality in Contested Environments) for numerous operational plans (OPLANS) and contingency plans
(CONPLANS) in near-peer conflicts. The proliferation of fourthgeneration enemy aircraft, sophisticated - double-digit - anti-
aircraft missile systems, and other threat systems pose a significant threat to F-15 survivability. Therefore, it is necessary to invest
in the F-15 platform to ensure it remains viable well into the 21st century. The F-15 Eagle Passive Active Warning and
Survivability System (EPAWSS) replaces the legacy, analog, functionally-obsolete F-15 Tactical Electronic Warfare System. F-15
EPAWSS is a 21st century, digital electronic warfare suite which includes electronic detection and identification, geolocation,
electronic countermeasures (jamming), and countermeasures dispensing (chaff/flares), providing advanced, game-changing
capabilities for the modern fight. Specifically, EPAWSS enables the F-15 to detect, identify, and locate Radio Frequency
(RF)threats as well as deny, degrade, deceive, disrupt, and defeat RF and electro-optical / infrared threat systems in contested
environments with dense RF backgrounds.

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Executive Summary
F-15 EPAWSS

Program Highlights Since Last Report

The program is using a tailored acquisition strategy that split Milestone C into two decision points, which takes hardware
procurement off the critical path and accelerates capability delivery by 16-months. The first decision point (Production Decision)
occurred October 2020 and the program formally entered into the production phase in December 2020, awarding the Lot 1 effort
for six Electronic Warfare (EW) kits. The program awarded the Lot 2 contract option for 12 EW kits in April 2022. The program
completed Milestone C Decision Point #2 (Deployment Decision) in June 2022. This approval authorized LRIP hardware
installations on up to 43 aircraft, and the program inducted the first two aircraft for the EPAWSS modifications in June/July
2022.

In January 2022, the acting Service Acquisition Executive signed an Acquisition Decision Memorandum formally approving the
program to mitigate Diminishing Manufacturing Sources and Materiel Shortages (DMSMS) parts-obsolescence issues for the
duration of EPAWSS production. The program is now in a position to protect future EPAWSS production in support of F-15EX
and F-15E for both Low-Rate and Full-Rate Production. The program also completed a Maintenance Demonstration and review
of the Time Compliance Technical Order; there are no showstoppers and the program is addressing minor issues. The
overarching product support package in support of Initial Operational Capability is on-schedule.

In February 2022, the program team completed the final planned test event at the Air Force Research Lab Integrated
Demonstrations and Applications Laboratory (AFRL IDAL) at Wright-Patterson AFB. The results of this important test
demonstrated EPAWSS meets all CDD requirements in a dense signal environment. Additionally, aircrew have seen a significant
reduction in display clutter over the last several software iterations. As a result, the program, with concurrence from
Developmental Testing/Operational Testing (DT/OT) and Air Combat Command (ACC), closed the mis-identification
operational-effectiveness issue. Also in February 2022, Boeing delivered the final software package containing new functional
content, which demonstrated outstanding performance in flight test missions.

In May 2022, BAE Systems completed qualification of the EPAWSS hardware, albeit there are some deficiencies that pose a
medium airworthiness (cost) risk in the rare occurrence of a lightning event. The Program Manager has the authority to accept
this risk and will do so once the report is finalized and the program begins Functional Configuration and Physical Configuration
Audits expected ~June 2023. Finally, in December 2022, Boeing delivered the final software build, EPAWSS Flight Bundle
(EFB) 9P, to flight test. The program remains on-track to start Initial Operational Test and Evaluation (IOT&E) in April 2023, in
accordance with the Acquisition Program Baseline (APB) Objective date.

Significant Issues:
The FY 2024 President's Budget (PB) force structure decision decreases the F-15E EPAWSS procurement quantity by 118 (from
217 to 99), while setting the F-15 EX quantities at 104 (includes 2 aircraft under pending Above Threshold Reprogramming
(ATR)). Due to the sunk cost of Development ($750M), this overall quantity reduction drives significant increases in unit cost. In
accordance with 10 U.S.C §4371-4377, this report serves as formal notification of a Significant Nunn-McCurdy breach for F-15
EPAWSS. The program will submit a separate Notification Letter to initiate formal Congressional notification.

Based on the September 2022 Program Office Estimate, the program faces an $85.8M procurement disconnect in FY 2024-FY
2025. These shortfalls will slow kit buys/installs, impact sparing required for fielding/IOC, and delay standup of the organic
depot capability beyond the statutory requirement (IOC +4 years).

Previous cost overruns and schedule delays in the development program drove the Air Force to restructure the EMD contract
from cost-type to firm-fixed-price in August 2020, which reduced monthly billings significantly starting in FY 2021. The
program offered $52M in FY 2021 RDT&E as an FY 2021 Omnibus source, which SASC denied. The Air Force removed $52M
in FY 2023 Research, Development, Test and Evaluation (RDT&E) (INV-011), which corrected the total program budget.

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The program is actively mitigating and/or monitoring the following key risks: Diminishing Manufacturing Sources and Material
Shortages; funding instability; ability to meet manufacturing commitments; incorporation of aircraft modifications into F-15
Programmed Depot Maintenance; and software performance during flight test.

There are no significant software-related issues with this program at this time.

History of Significant Developments Since Program Initiation

History of Significant Developments Since Program Initiation
Date Significant Development Description
Jan - 2023 Exercised MS Windows IT Upgrade Option CLIN on LRIP Contract.
Awarded fifth Diminishing Manufacturing Sources and Material Shortages (DMSMS)
Dec - 2022
contract.
Dec - 2022 Completed EFB 9P Performance Qualification Testing.
Dec - 2022 Completed MRAP-C at Nellis, AFB.
Dec - 2022 Delivered EFB 9P to Flight Test.
Nov - 2022 Completed all MS-C Documentation.
Nov - 2022 Completed SVR#2 Phase 1 Event.
Awarded fourth Diminishing Manufacturing Sources and Material Shortages (DMSMS)
Oct - 2022
contract.
Oct - 2022 Provided EPAWSS Academics to Nellis AFB Ops/Mnx.
Sep - 2022 Awarded $1.4M Over and Above (O&A) contract modification.
Awarded third Diminishing Manufacturing Sources and Material Shortages (DMSMS)
Sep - 2022
contract.
Sep - 2022 Delivered updated preliminary flight publications.
Sep - 2022 Participated in Black Flag exercise.
USAF force structure decision decreased the F-15E procurement quantity by 118 (from 217
Aug - 2022
to 99) in the FY24 BES (new total program quantity 167).
Jul - 2022 Inducted 2nd LRIP aircraft into San Antonio contractor modification facility.
Jun - 2022 Awarded LRIP Lot 2 contract option (17 EW kits).
Awarded second Diminishing Manufacturing Sources and Material Shortages (DMSMS)
Jun - 2022
contract.
Jun - 2022 Completed 4th (final) Cyber Vulnerability Test.
Jun - 2022 Completed 4th (final) Pt. Mugu Ground Test.
Jun - 2022 Inducted 1st LRIP aircraft into San Antonio contractor modification facility.
Jun - 2022 USAF SAE signed MS-C DP-2 (Deployment Decision) ADM.
USAF force structure decision decreased the F-15EX procurement quantity by 64 (from 144
Apr - 2022
to 80) in the FY23 PB (new total program quantity 299).
Feb - 2022 Delivered final mission system software containing new functional content.
Completed 6th (final) test at Air Force Research Lab Integrated Demonstrations &
Jan - 2022
Applications Laboratory.
Sep - 2021 Definitized Low-Rate Initial-Production (LRIP) Contract.
Aug - 2021 Completed 3rd (final) installed-system test at Benefield Anechoic Chamber (BAF).

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Date Significant Development Description

Aug - 2021 Completed modification of 8th and final developmental test aircraft.
May - 2021 Participated in NORTHERN EDGE 2021 Operationally-focused Large Force Exercise.
Apr - 2021 Completed modification and first flight of 7th developmental test aircraft.
Feb - 2021 USAF SAE approved the Production Acquisition Program Baseline (APB).
Dec - 2020 Awarded LRIP Undefinitized Contract Action.
USAF SAE signed Milestone C-Decision Point 1 (Production Decision) ADM, program
Dec - 2020
formally entered into Production Phase.
Aug - 2020 Restructured development contract from cost-type to firm-fixed-price.
Jun - 2020 Completed modification and first flight of 6th developmental test aircraft.
Mar - 2020 Completed modification and first flight of 5th developmental test aircraft.
Feb - 2020 Completed modification and first flight of 4th developmental test aircraft.
Provided program deviation report for schedule breach (IOT&E Start; Full Rate Production
Jan - 2020
Decision; and F-15E and F-15C Required Assets Available).
Jan - 2020 USAF SAE added 144 F-15EX to APB (new total program quantity 363).
Nov - 2019 Completed modification and first flight of 3rd developmental test aircraft.
Sep - 2019 Completed modification and first flight of 2nd developmental test aircraft.
Apr - 2019 Completed modification and first flight of 1st developmental test aircraft.
Apr - 2019 Conducted 1st installed-system (interoperability) test at BAF.
Provided a Program Deviation Report for Significant Nunn-McCurdy Breach for Program
Apr - 2019
Acquisition Unit Cost.
USAF force structure decision removed 194 F-15C models from APB (new total quantity
Jun - 2017
219).
Feb - 2017 Completed Critical Design Review.
Dec - 2016 Completed Milestone B.
Nov - 2016 Awarded Development Contract.
Nov - 2016 USD(AT&L) approved the original APB (217 F-15E and 196 F-15C, total quantity 413).
Jul - 2016 Completed Preliminary Design Review.
Aug - 2015 USD(AT&L) approved Milestone A.

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Schedule
F-15 EPAWSS

Milestone
Current Baseline Current
Events Baseline Estimate/Actual
Deviation
Objective/Threshold
Objective

Milestone A Aug 2015 Aug 2015 Aug 2015 Aug 2015

Preliminary Design Review Jul 2016 Jul 2016 Jul 2016 Jul 2016

Milestone B Nov 2016 Nov 2016 Nov 2016 Nov 2016

Critical Design Review Feb 2017 Feb 2017 Feb 2017 Feb 2017

Milestone C Decision Point #1 Dec 2020 Dec 2020 Dec 2020 Dec 2020

Milestone C Decision Point #2 May 2022 May 2022 Nov 2022 Jun 2022

IOT&E Start Apr 2023 Apr 2023 Oct 2023 Apr 2023

Full Rate Production Decision Apr 2024 Apr 2024 Oct 2024 Apr 2024

F-15E RAA Apr 2025 Apr 2025 Oct 2025 Apr 2025

Schedule Note
Conducted Milestone B briefing on September 23, 2016; Milestone Decision Authority (MDA) signed Acquisition Decision
Memorandum (ADM) on November 2, 2016.

The MDA approved an updated Acquisition Strategy in September 2018, directing the program to use two decision points in-lieu
of a single Milestone C decision:
• Decision Point #1 (October 2020) was the formal Production Decision and constituted the statutory Milestone C event -
authorized entry into the production phase and award of the LRIP contract. The MDA signed the ADM on December 1,
2020.
• Milestone C Decision Point #2 (June 2022) was the Deployment Decision and authorized the start of LRIP installations on
operational F-15E aircraft. The MDA signed the ADM on June 23, 2022.
F-15C RAA is not applicable due to USAF FY 2018 PB force structure decision to remove F-15C models from the program
baseline.

At the June 2022 AFROC, the F-15E RAA was adjusted from 24 to 12 EPAWSS-modified F-15E aircraft at a single location
along with delivery of training equipment and material, support equipment, spares, technical data, and mission planning/Mission
Data File Generation software.

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Performance
F-15 EPAWSS

Performance Characteristics
Demonstrated Current
Milestone Baseline Current Baseline Objective/Threshold Deviation
Performance Estimate/Actual
(KPP) - Sustainment (Ao and Am)
Ao = 99% Am = Ao = 99% Am = Ao = 97% Am = Ao = 97% Am = Ao = 99% Am =
90% 90% 88% 90% 90%

Requirement Reference
CDD dated September 18, 2014

Performance Note
CSAF approved updated Capabilities Development Document on June 27, 2022.

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Acquisition Budget Estimate

F-15 EPAWSS

Total Acquisition Cost

Milestone
Current Baseline Budget Estimate PB 2024
APB
Base Objective Objective Threshold
Category BY$M TY$M Deviation
Year (BY$M) (BY$M) (BY$M)
RDT&E 2016 1,236 1,236 1,359.6 1,097.9 1,190.4
Procurement 2016 3,314.1 3,314.1 3,645.5 1,856 2,384.7
MILCON 2016 0 0 0
Acq. O&M 2016 0 0 0
Total 4,550.1 4,550.1 2,953.9 3,575.1
PAUC 2016 12.535 12.535 13.382 14.339 17.355
APUC 2016 9.180 9.180 10.120 9.143 11.747

Budget Note
Budget Estimate Note:
• FY 2024 President's Budget (PB) RDT&E includes actuals, FY 2023 appropriated, and FY 2024 forecasted development
costs for the F-15 EPAWSS program of record (based on 2022 F-15 EPAWSS Program Office Estimate (POE) finalized in
September 2022).
• FY 2024 PB Procurement data above includes historical actuals, FY 2023 appropriated, FY 2024- complete forecasted
procurement costs (based on 2022 F-15 EPAWSS POE finalized in September 2022). It also includes F-15EX EPAWSS
A-kit costs, F-15EX EPAWSS B-kit costs and Air Force directed cost factors.
• The Procurement values used in the PAUC and APUC calculation include F-15E EPAWSS Procurement, F-15EX
EPAWSS A-kit costs, F-15EX EPAWSS B-kit costs and Air Force directed cost factors associated with the F-15E
procurement quantity (99) and F-15EX EPAWSS procurement quantity (104).
Baseline Note:
• Original APB RDT&E includes development costs for the F-15 EPAWSS program of record.
• Original APB Procurement includes F-15 EPAWSS electronic warfare A-kits, B-kits, installation, and support equipment
for 217 F-15E and 196 F-15C aircraft (413 total).
• Current Production APB includes development costs for the F-15 EPAWSS program of record.
• Current APB Procurement APB includes F-15 EPAWSS electronic warfare A-kits, B-kits, installation, and support
equipment for 217 F-15E aircraft and F-15 EPAWSS A-kits, B-kits, and Air Force directed cost factors for 144 F-15EX
aircraft (361 total).
• 2ea F-15C models modified for developmental test (prior to AF force structure decision to remove F-15C models from the
program baseline) will not be upgraded to the final F-15 EPAWSS production configuration.

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Total End Item Quantity

Quantity Category Current APB Quantity Current Estimate Quantity

Development 2 3

Procurement 361 203

O&M-Acquired -- --

Quantity Note
The current APB Procurement quantity of 361 includes 217 F-15E and 144 F-15EX aircraft. The two listed under Development
are F-15C models that will not be upgraded to the final EPAWSS production configuration. The FY 2023 PB request reduced F-
15EX procurement quantity from 144 to 80 and then the FY 2024 PB increased the F-15EX quantity to 104. The F-15EX
quantity of 104 assumes Congressional approval of a $145M pending ATR to enable the procurement of two aircraft. The FY
2024 PB includes a reduction of the F-15E procurement quantity from 217 to 99 (EPAWSS will only be installed on F-15Es with
P&W -229 engines). The Current Estimate procurement quantity reflected in the above table includes 99 F-15E and 104 F-15EX
aircraft. Five of six E-model test aircraft have P&W -229 engines and will upgrade to the final production configuration, so one
will not receive further upgrades; that E-model, along with the two C-model test aircraft, bring the total Development aircraft to
three.

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Unit Cost
F-15 EPAWSS

Current UCR Baseline and Current Estimate (Base-Year Dollars)

Category ($M) Base Year: 2016 Current UCR Baseline Current Estimate % Change
Program Acquisition Unit Cost
Cost 4,550.1 2,953.9
Quantity 363 206
Unit Cost 12.535 14.339 14.39%
Average Procurement Unit Cost
Cost 3,314.1 1,856.0
Quantity 361 203
Unit Cost 9.180 9.143 -0.40%
Original UCR Baseline and Current Estimate (Base-Year Dollars)
Category ($M) Base Year: 2016 Original UCR Baseline Current Estimate % Change

Program Acquisition Unit Cost

Cost 4,251.5 2,953.9
Quantity 413 206 Significant
Unit Cost 10.294 14.339 39.30%
Average Procurement Unit Cost
Cost 3,375.0 1,856.0
Quantity 413 203
Unit Cost 8.172 9.143 11.88%
Cost Growth Details
Original Baseline PAUC Breach Explanation
The reduction of the F-15E EPAWSS procurement quantity from 217 to 99 in the FY 2024 PB, coupled with an F-15EX
procurement quantity of 104 (original baseline 144), causes a Significant Nunn-McCurdy breach based on the September 2022
Program Office Estimate.
Impacts of Schedule Changes on Unit Cost
The Significant Nunn-McCurdy Breach has no impact to the EPAWSS program schedule.
Impacts of Performance Changes on Unit Cost
The Significant Nunn-McCurdy Breach has no impact to the EPAWSS program performance.
Actions Taken or Proposed to Control Future Cost Growth
Upon awarding the development (EMD) contract in CY 2016, Boeing and BAE Systems agreed to a Firm Fixed Price
Competitive Pricing Arrangement that established pricing for the entirety of EPAWSS Group B hardware production (originally
F-15C and F-15E, but now applies to F-15E and F-15EX). Additionally, as a result of cost overruns early in the development
program, in FY 2020 the Air Force Service Acquisition Executive directed the program to restructure the EMD contract from cost
-type to Firm Fixed Price (completed August 20, 2020). As a result of these two initiatives, the program has experienced nominal
true cost growth since CY 2019. The Significant Nunn-McCurdy breach is driven by the reduction in overall procurement
quantity for F-15E and F-15EX.

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Unit Cost Note

Current Baseline Compared with Current Estimate
• There was a reduction of the F-15E EPAWSS procurement quantity from 217 to 99, and the F-15EX procurement quantity
of 104 (original baseline 144).
• The current APB PAUC calculation = (F-15E & F-15C EPAWSS RDT&E + F-15E EPAWSS Procurement + F-15EX
EPAWSS A-Kit costs + F-15EX EPAWSS B-Kit costs + cost factors) / (F-15C RDT&E quantity (2) + F-15E procurement
quantity (217) + F-15EX procurement quantity (144) (363 total))
• The current APB APUC calculation = (F-15E EPAWSS procurement costs + F-15EX EPAWSS A-Kit costs + F-15EX
EPAWSS B-Kit costs + cost factors) / (F-15E procurement quantity (217) + F-15EX procurement quantity (144) (361 total))
• Current Estimate PAUC calculation = (F-15E & F-15C EPAWSS RDT&E + F-15E EPAWSS Procurement + F-15EX
EPAWSS A-kit costs + F-15EX EPAWSS B-kit costs + cost factors) / (F-15C/E RDT&E quantity (3) + F-15E procurement
quantity (99) + F-15EX procurement quantity (104) (206 total))
• Current Estimate APUC calculation = (F-15E EPAWSS procurement costs + F-15EX EPAWSS A-kit costs + F-15EX
EPAWSS B-kit costs + cost factors) / (F-15E procurement quantity (99) + F-15EX procurement quantity (104) (203 total))

Original Baseline Compared with Current Estimate

• The reduction of the F-15E EPAWSS procurement quantity from 217 to 99, coupled with an F-15EX procurement quantity
of 104 (original baseline 144), causes a Significant Nunn-McCurdy breach based on the September 2022 Program Office
Estimate.
• Original APB PAUC calculation = (F-15C & F-15E EPAWSS RDT&E + F-15C & F-15E EPAWSS Procurement) / (F-15C
quantity (196) + F-15E quantity (217) (413 total))
• Original APB APUC calculation = (F-15C EPAWSS procurement costs + F-15E EPAWSS procurement costs) / (F-15C
quantity (196) + F-15E quantity (217) (413 total))
• Current Estimate PAUC calculation = (F-15E & F-15C EPAWSS RDT&E + F-15E EPAWSS Procurement + F-15EX
EPAWSS A-kit costs + F-15EX EPAWSS B-kit costs + cost factors) / (F-15C/E RDT&E quantity (3) + F-15E procurement
quantity (99) + F-15EX procurement quantity (104) (206 total))
• Current Estimate APUC calculation = (F-15E EPAWSS procurement costs + F-15EX EPAWSS A-kit costs + F-15EX
EPAWSS B-kit costs + cost factors) / (F-15E procurement quantity (99) + F-15EX procurement quantity (104) (203 total))

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Risk and Sensitivity Analysis

Risk and Sensitivity Analysis

Current Procurement Cost (December - 2022)

1. If the program is unsuccessful in ongoing mitigations for Diminishing Manufacturing Sources & Material Shortages or the
number/frequency of obsolescence issues becomes unmanageable, there may be insufficient hardware for production,
resulting in delayed RAA/IOC.
2. If the electronic warfare kit supplier is unable to meet the production schedule due to commitments across multiple defense
programs and supplier constraints, the aircraft modification schedule and IOC may be delayed.
Original Baseline Estimate (November - 2016)
1. The EPAWSS Original Baseline was set by the MDA in a November 2, 2016 ADM approving Milestone B. The CAPE
review of the cost estimates prepared for the F-15 EPAWSS Milestone B review dated September 26, 2016 noted the Air
Force conducted an analysis of the program staffing levels over time compared to similar electronic warfare systems. CAPE
concluded the staffing levels are reasonable and achievable. To assess the reasonableness of the SCP and the ICE, CAPE
reviewed the technical and cost data collected from Boeing and BAE Systems in support of the Milestone B decision. F-15
Saudi Arabia DEWS, from which EPAWSS heavily leverages, shares 87% of the software, 76% of the firmware, and 81%
of the hardware with EPAWSS. CAPE noted the DEWS leverage reduces the overall risk for development and procurement
and provides a reasonable analogy for cost estimating.

Significant Schedule Risks

Significant Schedule Risks

Current Estimate (December - 2022)
1. 1. If F-15 Programmed Depot Maintenance at Robins AFB is unable to incorporate the EPAWSS modifications starting
mid-way through low-rate initial production, THEN the program will experience significant cost growth, negatively
impact F-15 aircraft availability, and delay FOC.
2. If the AF does not fund FY 2024-2025 procurement disconnects, THEN the program will be forced to "buy-to-budget" in
those years, driving an overall program delay to Full Operational Capability (FOC) and cost increase.
3. If the electronic warfare kit supplier is unable to meet EPAWSS manufacturing expectations due to commitments across
multiple defense programs and/or challenges with suppliers, THEN the aircraft modification schedule and IOC may be
delayed.
4. If the program is unsuccessful in ongoing mitigations for DMS, the number/frequency of DMS issues becomes
unmanageable, or the program fails to award a purchase order on-time, THEN there may be insufficient hardware for
production, resulting in delayed IOC.
5. If the system experiences performance shortfalls during final developmental flight testing, THEN the program may be
unable to start Initial Operational Test & Evaluation (IOT&E) on-time in April 2023.

Technologies and Systems Engineering

Significant Technical Risks

Current Estimate (December - 2022)

If the electronic warfare kit supplier discovers significant hardware issues during remaining hardware qualification testing,
retrofits may be required in the production program, driving cost increases. (Note -qualification testing is complete. The program
expects to retire this risk with delivery of the final qualification report, completion of the Functional/Physical Configuration
Audits, and System Verification Review #2 in July 2022.

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Low Rate Initial Production

F-15 EPAWSS

Item Initial LRIP Decision Current Total LRIP

Approval Date 12/01/2020 12/01/2020

Approved Quantity 43 43
Reference Acq. Decision Memo Acq. Decision Memo
Start Year 2020 2020
End Year 2026 2026

Rationale if quantity exceeds 10% of the total number of articles to be procured:

The Current Total LRIP Quantity is more than 10% of the total production quantity in order to meet IOC requirement of 24
aircraft (based on original 2014 CDD) while providing spares and continued production until the FRP Decision.

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Contracts & Efforts

Contract Data

Contract Number FA8634-17-C-2650

Effort Number

Modification Number P00073

Award Date 11/03/2016

Definitization Date 12/16/2016

Order Number

CAGE Code/CAGE Legal Name 76301/The Boeing Company

Contract Title EPAWSS EMD

Contract Address WPAFB, OH

Contracting Office

Supported Phase Development

Contract Strategy

Contract Type Firm-Fixed-Price

Modification Date December 01, 2022

Work Start Date

Technical Data Rights

Work Completed

Contracts/Effort Price, Quantity, and Performance (TY$M)

Initial Target Price Current Target Price

$619.5 $666.5

Initial Ceiling Price Current Ceiling Price

$619.5 $666.5

Contractor EAC PM EAC

$609.2 $648.6

Initial Quantity Current Quantity Delivered Quantity

8 8 8

Contract Note:
Initial Target Price reflects contract restructure P00043. EMD contract converted to mostly FFP on August 28, 2020. Cost and
Schedule Variance reporting is not required for this FFP type contract.

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F-15 EPAWSS SAR DEC 2022

Contract Data

Contract Number FA8634-21-C-2702

Effort Number

Modification Number P00028

Award Date 12/16/2020

Definitization Date 09/28/2021

Order Number

CAGE Code/CAGE Legal Name 76301/The Boeing Company

Contract Title EPAWSS LRIP

Contract Address St. Louis, MO

Contracting Office AFLCMC/WAQ

Supported Phase Production

Contract Strategy

Contract Type Cost-Plus-Incentive-Fee

Modification Date January 10, 2023

Work Start Date December 16, 2020

Technical Data Rights Unlimited Rights to Technical Data--Noncommercial Items & Software

Work Completed 37.63%

Contracts/Effort Price, Quantity, and Performance (TY$M)

Initial Target Price Current Target Price

$276.5 $333.6

Initial Ceiling Price Current Ceiling Price

$276.5 $333.6

Contractor EAC PM EAC

$319.1 $329.2

Initial Quantity Current Quantity Delivered Quantity

45 43 0

BAC BCWP ACWP

$319.2 $120.1 $122

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BCWS Cost Variance Schedule Variance

$123.2 -$1.9 -$3.1

Contract Note:
The LRIP contract is approximately 1/3 CPFF, 1/3 FFP, and 1/3 FPIF contract types. The total negotiated contract price including
all options is $954.8M of which $547.9M is awarded. The FFP CLINs do not have an EVM requirement.

Factors Contributing to Cost Variance:

At the end of January 2023, the Cumulative Cost Variance is .985 (-$1,843K), driven by the top three variances of CLIN 1009
San Antonio Cert/ Ver Bulk (-$2,400K), CLIN 5022 BAE ICS CY22 (+$1,220K), and CLIN 0022 BAE SEPM (+$1,208K).

Factors Contributing to Schedule Variance:

At the end of January 2023, the Cumulative Schedule Variance is .975 (-$3,066K), and the top three variances were CLIN 5027
BAE ICS Repair Line Standup (-$3,908K), CLIN 0037 BAE DMS Redesigns (-$820K), and CLIN 4002 Full Mod Line Standup
Material (+$2,188K).

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Deliveries and Expenditures

F-15 EPAWSS

Deliveries
Delivered to Date Planned to Date Actual to Date Total Quantity Percent Delivered
Development 3 3 3 100.00%
Production 0 0 203 0.00%

Total Program Quantity Delivered 3 3 206 1.46%

Expended and Appropriated (TY $M)

Years Appropriated to date: 8
Total Years Appropriated Funding (Current Baseline): 13
Percent Years Appropriated: 61.54%
Then-Year Funding Appropriated as Percentage of Total Acquisition Estimate: 45.61%
Then-Year Funding Expended as Percentage of Total Acquisition Estimate: 25.09%
Total Acquisition Cost: $3,575.1

'HOLYHULHVDQG([SHQGLWXUHV1RWH
Procurement quantity includes five Development aircraft that will receive Production level configuration/upgrade at
the end of the Production phase.

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Operating and Support Costs

F-15 EPAWSS

O&S Cost Breakdown:

Category (BY2016$ Million) F-15 EPAWSS

Unit-Level Manpower $0.0

Unit Operations $0.0

Maintenance $292.8

Sustaining Support 26.7

Continued System
$53.9
Improvements

Other $447.6

Total $821.0

Cost Estimate Source: POE dated September 28, 2022

O&S Cost Notes: Based on 2022 Program Office Estimate

Total Program O&S Cost Compared with Baseline

Current Baseline

Current Current
Objective Threshold
Estimate Estimate Deviation
(BY$M) (BY$M)
Base Year: 2016 (BY$M) (TY$M)

Total O&S $1,312.8 $1,444.1 $821.0 $14,949.9

Note: Then Year Cost estimate is $1510.6M. The APB estimate is based on 217 F-15E and 144 F-15EX. The current estimate is
based on 99 F-15E and 104 F-15 EX - calculated by apportioning 2022 Program Office Estimate to reflect revised quantities for
both F-15E and F-15 EX (assumes life-cycle remains unchanged). The longer F-15EX lifecycle drives greater growth between
BY and TY.

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Operating and Support Costs - Disposal and Unitized Costs

F-15 EPAWSS

Annual Unitized O&S Cost Definition and Calculation Relative to Total O&S Cost:

Sustainment Factors System Name: F-15 EPAWSS Antecedent System Name: F-15 TEWS

Quantity to Sustain 203

Unit of Measure Aircraft

Unit Expected Service Life 40

Base Year: 2016

Annual Unitized O&S Cost by
System Name: F-15 EPAWSS Antecedent System Name: F-15 TEWS
Category Base Year $ Unit:($M)

Unit-Level Manpower $0.0

Unit Operations $0.0

Maintenance $0.036

Sustaining Support $0.003

Continued System Improvements $0.007

Other $0.055

Total O&S $0.101 $0.0

Disposal/Demilitarization Cost Estimate

(BY2016$M) System Name: F-15 EPAWSS Antecedent System Name: F-15 TEWS

Total Disposal $0.0

Cost Estimate Source - Disposal

Type: Program Office Estimate

Approval Authority and Date: AFLCMC/FZC 09/29/2022

Note:
None
Disposal Cost Note:

No additional disposal cost apart from the F-15 aircraft.

Additional O&S Estimate Assumptions:

The "Other" category accounts for 104 F-15 EX aircraft.

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Sustainment Strategy:

EPAWSS will employ a two-level maintenance concept - organic at both the Organizational Level (O-Level) and the Depot Level
(D-Level). EPAWSS contractors will provide Interim Contractor Support (ICS) until the Government transitions to an organic
capability, anticipated at IOC plus 4 years. During ICS, the contractor will perform all required D-level repairs on the system;
provide Field Service Representatives to support O-Level repairs; interim supply support; and product support integrator activities.
Additionally, during LRIP, the contractor will provide initial O-level training on how to operate, maintain and support EPAWSS-
equipped aircraft.

Antecedent Estimate Assumptions:

None

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