2024 Hrteachinglearning
2024 Hrteachinglearning
Kathe Pelletier, Mark McCormack, Nicole Muscanell, Jamie Reeves, Jenay Robert, and
Nichole Arbino, 2024 EDUCAUSE Horizon Report, Teaching and Learning Edition
(Boulder, CO: EDUCAUSE, 2024).
© 2024 EDUCAUSE
ISBN: 978-1-933046-20-4
Learn More
Read additional materials on the 2024 Horizon Project research hub,
https://www.educause.edu/horizon-report-teaching-and-learning-2024
EDUCAUSE is a higher education technology association and the largest community of IT leaders and professionals committed to
advancing higher education. Technology, IT roles and responsibilities, and higher education are dynamically changing. Formed in 1998,
EDUCAUSE supports those who lead, manage, and use information technology to anticipate and adapt to these changes, advancing
strategic IT decision-making at every level within higher education. EDUCAUSE is a global nonprofit organization whose members
include US and international higher education institutions, corporations, not-for-profit organizations, and K–12 institutions. With a
community of more than 100,000 individuals at member organizations located around the world, EDUCAUSE encourages diversity in
perspective, opinion, and representation. For more information, please visit educause.edu.
CONTENTS
Executive Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4
Scenarios . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34
Growth: Workforce-Driven Higher Education . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35
Collapse: Higher Education’s Political Tides . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36
Constraint: Data-Restricted Higher Education . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37
Transformation: Individualized Higher Education . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38
Methodology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39
I
n the denouement of the COVID-19 pandemic, talk of a return to “normalcy” in higher education belies the great challenges and
ongoing disruptions that yet lie ahead for many institutions. Public perceptions of the value of postsecondary education continue
their downward slide, placing institutions in the position of having to demonstrate their worth and find solutions to declining
enrollments. Data and analytics capabilities continue to evolve, introducing new opportunities and new risks to the institution. Chief
among these capabilities, generative AI promises to change teaching and learning in ways many of us have yet to fully understand or
prepare for. For this year’s teaching and learning Horizon Report, expert panelists’ discussions highlighted and wrestled with these
present and looming challenges for higher education. This report summarizes the results of those discussions and serves as one
vantage point on where our future may be headed. This project was grounded in a modified Delphi methodology that seeks to elevate
the collective perspectives and knowledge of a diverse group of experts, and the panelists’ activities were facilitated using tools
adapted from the Institute for the Future.
Trends Environmental
• Higher ed institutions are increasing their commitment to
As a first activity, we asked the Horizon panelists to provide sustainability.
input on the macro trends they believe are going to shape the • Concerns about the impact of big data tools on the
future of postsecondary teaching and learning and to provide environment are rising.
observable evidence for those trends. To ensure an expansive • The demand for green skills in the workforce is
view of the larger trends serving as context for institutions of increasing.
higher education, panelists provided input across five trend
categories: social, technological, economic, environmental, Political
and political. Given the widespread impacts of emerging AI • Political polarization in the United States continues to
technologies on higher education, we are also including in this impact higher education.
year’s report a list of “honorary trends” focused on AI. After • Government policy is increasingly influencing education.
several rounds of voting, the panelists selected the following • The need is growing for policies that address emerging
trends as the most important: technologies.
Honorary AI Trends
Social
• AI is changing the way we communicate.
• Public perception of the value of higher education is
• AI tools have growing potential to reshape pedagogy and
declining.
student experiences.
• Student demographics are changing.
• AI is increasingly having an impact on the economy and
• Students are increasingly demanding access to learning
workforce.
anytime, anywhere.
• AI is increasingly being used to address climate change
Technological and sustainability issues.
• Concerns about cybersecurity and privacy are increasing. • The potential for the use of AI in politics is growing.
• The use of learning analytics continues to rise.
• The digital divide persists.
Economic
• The demand for and focus on workforce skills is growing.
• Challenges for employee retention are increasing.
• Student debt is increasingly impacting students’
enrollment decisions.
• Finding Appropriate Uses for AI-Enabled Technology • Constraint: In this future, widespread surges in
• Supporting AI Fluency cybercrime are all over the news. Media outlets compare
• Supporting Equitable and Inclusive Learning online environments to crime-riddled metropolitan areas,
• Protecting Data Privacy and Security cautioning the public to shore up their data and device
• Navigating Misinformation protection or to simply stay offline whenever possible.
• Supporting Mental Health Security and privacy advocates find allies in climate
and ethics leaders who decry the environmental and
Having identified the most important technologies and human costs of excessive data collection and use, gaining
practices, panelists were then asked to reflect on the impacts sufficient influence to lead sweeping social and political
those technologies and practices would likely have at an changes in national and global data practices.
institution. We asked panelists to consider those impacts along
several dimensions important to higher education: the impacts • Collapse: In this future, global political division
of those technologies and practices on the macro trends and conflict is putting pressure on higher education
already identified by the panelists; potential key stakeholder institutions. A growing number of institutions face an
(staff, faculty, students) uses of those technologies and impossible choice: align with local, state, and federal
practices; risks of using those technologies and practices; and political and moral ideologies, thereby alienating a large
whether and how those technologies and practices support portion of learners and instructors and staff, or lose vital
equity and inclusion. state and federal funding and face unavoidable shutdown.
I
nstitutions of higher education, and the teaching and learning practices they
adopt, are in many ways products of the larger environments of which they
are a part. Colleges and universities are always made up of people living at
a particular point in history, residing together in particular communities, and Social
sharing a particular mixture of cultural ideas, norms, and resources. Mapping
Public perception of the value of
the future of these institutions and their practices demands that we pay attention higher education is declining.
to the larger social, economic, and other shifts taking place across our global
society that may be impacting higher education in profound ways.
Student demographics are
changing.
To help us explore these larger forces taking shape around higher education, we Students are increasingly
asked panelists to survey the landscape and identify the most influential trends demanding access to learning
shaping higher education teaching and learning across five categories: social, anytime, anywhere.
technological, economic, environmental, and political (STEEP). This section
summarizes the trends the panelists discussed and voted as most important in Technological
each of these categories, as well as anticipated impacts of and evidence for each
Concerns about cybersecurity and
trend. privacy are increasing.
In this year’s report, we see more and more evidence that higher education The use of learning analytics
must transform itself to retain value and relevance amid a changing student continues to rise.
demographic, the increasing influence of government policy on education in
The digital divide persists.
a politically polarized environment, and the continuing digital divide. Public
perception of the value of higher education continues to decline, and student
Economic
debt is increasingly factoring in students’ enrollment decisions. An increasing
commitment to sustainability in higher education will also require institutions to The demand for and focus on
transform building and data-center policies and practices. workforce skills is growing.
Trends related to data also point to the need for transformation. The deepening Environmental
concerns about the impact of big data tools and about cybersecurity and privacy
Higher ed institutions are
become even more critical as we see the continued rise of learning analytics.
increasing their commitment to
sustainability.
Threaded throughout these trends and their potential impacts, of course, was
artificial intelligence. For the first time in the history of this research, panelists Concerns about the impact of big
identified AI-related trends across all five of the STEEP categories. Thus, in data tools on the environment are
this edition of the Horizon Report, we include an honorary category of AI trends. rising.
The potential impacts of AI are broad and far-reaching. AI is changing the way The demand for green skills in the
we communicate, beginning to reshape pedagogy and student experiences, workforce is increasing.
increasingly impacting the economy and the workforce, and being used to
address climate change and sustainability issues. Meanwhile, the potential
for using AI in politics is growing. Overall, the AI trends depict a potential
future in which humans will need to navigate the impact of AI amid the ongoing
development of AI tools.
Technological Trends
Economic Trends
Environmental Trends
Political Trends
H
igher education takes place within particular social contexts, and learning experiences are shaped and colored by the
people interacting and building relationships through those experiences. The student experience in higher education is a
fundamentally social practice, one that is better understood by mapping the important social trends developing within and
around it.
Public perception of the value of Evidence: Despite rising concerns about the value of a college
higher education is declining. education, a recent survey conducted by the American Association
of Colleges and Universities (AAC&U) showed that many
Impact: Since 2015, negative public perceptions about higher employers believe that college education is valuable and prepares
education and the value of a college degree have grown. To be students for entry into the workforce. In Colorado, lawmakers
clear, many still agree that college is valuable, and research commissioned an annual report on higher education return on
still shows that a college education is economically and socially investment, which provides high schoolers with information that
valuable, not only to individuals but to the country as a whole. they can use to help decide whether they should go to college. The
But people are increasingly losing their trust and confidence in Center on Education and the Workforce at Georgetown University
higher education and are questioning whether college is worth provides rankings by return on investment for 4,500 universities
the increasingly hefty price tag. Young people are uncertain and colleges.
that a degree will help them secure a well-paying job and are
put off by the debt they would accumulate by attending college. Student demographics are changing.
This has the potential to exacerbate enrollment issues and
could lead to varying impacts, both positive and negative. With
Impact: Student populations are becoming more diverse in
terms of race, ethnicity, gender, age and generational status,
this declining interest in higher education, institutions may
and economic background. With the looming enrollment cliff,
face further economic challenges such as decreased state and
there will be an increase in nontraditional students pursuing
federal funding and donor contributions, which could impact all
higher ed opportunities. Universities and colleges will need to
areas of institutional operations, including staffing, services,
be prepared to meet students where they are and to find ways
and curriculum. There could be broader, societal-level impacts
to demonstrate the value proposition of higher education to the
as well—fewer people attending college can slow economic
broader population, including nontraditional students and those
growth by creating or worsening labor shortages, lowering
from traditionally underserved populations. In addition to finding
tax revenues, and increasing the demand for social services.
ways to make education more affordable, pedagogical approaches
Socially and culturally, we could see declines in important skill
and curriculum will need to be updated to accommodate the
areas that many companies desire, such as critical thinking,
diverse needs of students. Universities and colleges should
creativity, curiosity, and resilience. Divisions could also
carefully assess their existing offerings along with workforce and
widen over politics, socioeconomic status, race and ethnicity,
job market trends to make decisions about updating academic
and gender and sexuality as individuals have fewer formal
programs so that they will meet not only student needs but future
opportunities to critically explore different points of view. Yet,
employer needs. Institutions can also make their courses more
with these changing perceptions, we could also see beneficial
accessible by implementing universal design principles and
changes to the higher ed landscape. That is, institutional
investing in high-quality online, hybrid, and blended learning
leaders might need to rethink what teaching and learning looks
options to appeal to students who prefer flexible and remote
like to better attract, retain, and serve students. This could
learning. Alternative credentials such as microcredentials,
lead to the development and implementation of innovative
certifications, and badges will also be attractive to students
teaching methods and pedagogical approaches that more
looking for short-term training in specific areas. Institutions will
heavily incorporate experiential learning, technology, and real-
also need to ensure that faculty are able to adapt to diversifying
world applications. This may also lead to a stronger emphasis
student cohorts and their differential needs by providing
on affordability and equity, in addition to ensuring that
professional development and training opportunities and easy
graduates will benefit from their degrees (e.g., via pathways
access to instructional resources. Student support services
that focus directly on skills-based learning and workforce
will also need to be more robust—greater numbers of students
development and by forming partnerships with industry to
will need a variety of services such as language, tutoring, and
create tangible career opportunities for students).
FURTHER READING
Chronicle of Higher Education National Center for Education Statistics McKinsey & Company
“What the Public Really Thinks About “Projections of Education Statistics to “What Do Higher Education Students
Higher Education” 2028: Enrollment in Degree-Granting Want from Online Learning?”
Postsecondary Institutions”
T
echnology is constantly changing and growing more sophisticated. As technologies become outdated and new technologies
are introduced, institutions of higher education must consistently monitor the usefulness of tech already implemented and
plan for new technologies that enable more adaptive decision-making and more flexible teaching and learning experiences.
What those technologies are, how they are deployed across the institution, and the ways in which they themselves continue to evolve
is one of the ongoing and defining stories of higher education.
FURTHER READING
H
igher education is no stranger to economic challenges. Finding reliable markets and sources of revenue while keeping
costs from ballooning is always of critical importance to institutions. Yet economies and enrollment patterns fluctuate,
so institutional leaders need to be prepared for fiscal instability and uncertainty by anticipating declines in funding and
adopting new ways of thinking about and planning institutional business.
FURTHER READING
I
nstitutions of higher education draw on finite local and global materials and resources to fuel their operations, and their
facilities leave sizable imprints on the environments around them. The need to adopt sustainable practices across the board,
far too often overlooked in higher education planning and decision-making, will be inescapable in a future more concerned with
climate stability and environmental sustainability.
Higher ed institutions are increasing Evidence: The University of California at San Diego recently
their commitment to sustainability. announced that it will require students to complete at least
one climate-change course to be eligible for graduation.
Impact: Climate change continues to impact the environment The Sustainable Development Solutions Network partnered
and individuals globally, and due to this, universities and with the Climateworks Centre at Monash University, Second
colleges have been steadily increasing their commitment Nature, and the Alliance for Sustainability Leadership in
to sustainability efforts. A growing number of universities Education to develop Net Zero On Campus, a guide for
and colleges are committing to achieving carbon neutrality universities and colleges to accelerate climate action.
by 2050. Some of this growth is driven by student interest
in sustainability as more and more students are interested Concerns about the impact of big
in their institution’s sustainability efforts (sometimes even data tools on the environment are
considering this factor when deciding which college to enroll rising.
at), and they are increasingly interested in participating in
courses, research projects, and other initiatives focused on Impact: The use of big data (especially thanks to machine
environmental issues. A rise in sustainability-minded students learning and AI) continues to be on the rise globally. Many
will likely guide campus policy decisions moving forward. As recognize the utility—large quantities of data can not only
part of their increased efforts toward sustainability, institutions help individuals identify relevant patterns or trends but
are doing a number of things to reduce their carbon emissions, also be used to address a range of issues including work
such as finding and using renewable sources of energy. Some processes, health care, and climate change. Yet, while big
institutions are composting food waste into nutrient-rich soil, data is highly valuable, its rapid growth is causing some to
replacing heating systems that rely on fire and steaming with become concerned about its impact on the environment.
geothermal energy, harvesting biomass energy, installing The amount of data created and stored globally continues
wind turbines to generate electricity, using regenerative to grow, putting increased pressure on data centers, which
energy and sustainable materials in construction projects, require huge amounts of energy and water. As institutions
and adopting green technology. Institutions are also making collect more data and rely increasingly on AI-powered
curriculum changes, offering more programs and courses on technologies, they will need to devise plans that will help
environmental issues and sustainability, and some are even them adopt new technologies and collect meaningful data
making sustainability and climate issues mandatory, requiring in a way that is sustainable and environmentally friendly.
all students to complete a certain number of courses on the This means there will be an increasing need for support and
topic. As institutions put stronger emphasis on sustainability in tools that universities and colleges can use to accurately
their curriculum, this will add pressure to ensuring that faculty estimate and monitor their data-related carbon emissions, in
are adequately prepared to teach these topics. Institutions addition to the development of a standard set of best practices
are also facing other challenges, especially financial ones. and guidelines when it comes to making data greener—for
Sustainability requires resources that may be hard to come by. example, guidelines for machine learning model development
To combat this, more institutions are forming multi-institution and training, and model use and re-use. As part of this, there
collaborations and pooling resources from local, regional, will also be a growing need for transparency in developing
and state sources to address climate, energy-efficiency, and machine learning models so that users can accurately
economic-development goals. And while going green requires estimate their emissions. Some universities and colleges
upfront funding, fully investing in a sustainable campus could are already finding ways to reduce their data emissions, for
help save significant money in the long run. As institutions move example by moving their data processes to eco-friendly data
forward, they should consider completing climate assessments centers. Moving forward, institutions should look to work
so that they can strategically identify high-consumption areas more closely with technology companies, not only as a means
that should be targeted in their pursuit of carbon neutrality. of better understanding their own data emissions but also
FURTHER READING
H
igher education, for better and for worse, is always entangled in and concerned with the political climate and events of the
present moment. In addition to determining overall higher education funding, politics is interwoven with higher education
as an object of research and study and as subject matter for courses. Because of this long-standing entanglement, political
trends have significant effects on higher education at a variety of levels, both positively and negatively.
FURTHER READING
T
his year, we include an honorary section devoted to artificial intelligence. AI continues to make waves not only within higher
education but globally, across industries and in everyday personal and social contexts. The influence of AI is far-reaching,
and perhaps unsurprisingly, panelists this year nominated at least one AI-related trend in each of the five trend categories.
In this section we briefly highlight a few of the AI-related social, technological, economic, environmental, and political trends and
impacts that are taking shape.
T
he Horizon Report describes “key technologies and practices” that are
anticipated to have a significant impact on the future of teaching and
learning in light of the social, technological, environmental, economic,
and political trends previously identified by the panel. In the nomination and Finding Appropriate Uses for
voting process, panelists consider which technologies or practices have the most AI-Enabled Technology
potential to either mitigate or accelerate these trends. Supporting AI Fluency
Navigating Misinformation
In recent years, a shift from discrete technologies toward more holistic practices
Supporting Mental Health
or combined approaches to technology use has occurred. In this 2024 report, while
we see references to specific technologies—namely artificial intelligence—this
set of “technologies and practices” reflects this shift toward the practices needed
to maximize potential or minimize risk in a world where digital experience is
increasingly threaded through both personal and academic experiences.
Related to AI, the panel called out the need to find appropriate uses for AI-enabled
technology and to support AI fluency. Generative AI tools are increasingly powerful
and readily available to students, faculty, and staff, and these stakeholders will
need to negotiate questions about what responsible use in higher education looks
like. Similarly, supporting AI fluency will help stakeholders understand what AI is
and what it is not, how to leverage these tools to support meaningful teaching and
learning experiences, and how to navigate potential issues of bias or ethics.
Themes of recognizing the whole person in students and other stakeholders also
come through in the key technologies and practices. Supporting mental health and
supporting equitable and inclusive learning have appeared indirectly in previous
Teaching and Learning editions of the Horizon Report; however, both were called
out this year more explicitly than ever before.
In this section, readers will find an overview of each key technology or practice,
ideas for action, and a set of resources for further reading. Examples of projects
that bring each technology or practice to life are also included with brief
descriptions and links to learn more. In this edition, we also include additional
project examples in the Appendix.
to guide the ethical and responsible use of AI-enabled (FLC) at Saginaw Valley State University consists of eighteen
instructors adopt inclusive and impactful strategies and real-world context in which to explore the ramifications
disseminate lessons learned, evidence-based teaching is of generative AI for student learning in first-year writing
cultivated at scale. courses by (1) inviting students’ engagement with GAI in their
coursework, (2) providing students ChatGPT-4 subscriptions,
Engaging AI Formative Practice to Transform and (3) embedding in each pilot section an undergraduate AI
Foundational Teaching and Learning affiliate who collaborates with the instructor on GAI learning
Faculty at the University of Central Florida and Iowa State activities and supports students in practicing ethical and
University partnered with VitalSource to research the meaningful AI-mediated writing and research.
use of AI-generated formative practice in courseware
FURTHER READING
The University of Sydney Texas Computer Education Association World Economic Forum
“How Sydney Educators Are Building ‘AI “A Teacher Rubric and Checklist for “How Can AI Support Diversity, Equity and
Doubles’ of Themselves to Help Their Assessing AI Tools” Inclusion?”
Students”
Thompson Rivers University Library Chronicle of Higher Education
Computer and Education: Artificial “Artificial Intelligence: A Guide for Students” “How Will Artificial Intelligence Change
Intelligence Higher Ed?”
Harvard Business Review
“AI-Enabled Adaptive Learning Systems:
“13 Principles for Using AI Responsibly” EDUCAUSE Review
A Systematic Mapping of the Literature”
“Integrating Generative AI into Higher
Education: Considerations”
FURTHER READING
FURTHER READING
Thomas J. Tobin and Kirsten T. Behling James M. Lang The University of Kansas
Reach Everyone, Teach Everyone Small Teaching “Designing with Equity and Access in Mind”
Protecting data privacy and security is a complex task that Revise and create policies and guidelines to fit
requires buy-in and coordination from stakeholder groups AI use cases. In many cases, existing privacy and security
across the institution. For some institutions, the first step policies will be adequate to address AI-related concerns, but
is building basic infrastructure around data governance, institutions will likely need to revise at least some existing
an endeavor that requires significant time and budget. policies and guidelines as well as create new ones. Work with
Working to effect any sort of change at scale runs the risk privacy and security professionals at your institution to shed
of overwhelming faculty and staff. Shoring up privacy and light on use cases relevant to teaching and learning.
security processes also introduces risk related to over-
protecting data, potentially limiting access for stakeholders Model good privacy and security practices for
engaging in important research and evaluation. Privacy students. Faculty and staff can not only provide direct
and security professionals can mitigate this risk by helping instruction and training for students but also model good
institutional leaders align processes to the institution’s practices such as protecting personal information and
mission, vision, and values. discussing the privacy and security of third-party software.
“The safer data and security [are] for all, “Faculty can teach students how to have a
and especially students, the more we can healthy distrust of technology and an eye for
effectively and safely use educational suspicious materials.”
technology tools for teaching and learning.”
Make privacy and security a foundational element
for procurement. Whether you’re investigating the use of a
tool for one class or for the entire institution, be critical of data
privacy and security, and consult with your institution’s privacy
and security professionals. Continue to monitor changes to
terms and conditions to ensure that the tools you are using are
still protecting your information.
FURTHER READING
FURTHER READING
FURTHER READING
With the trends we’re observing and the technologies and practices emerging around
us that are already helping shape the future, we can begin to imagine how all of these
elements might combine and coalesce into larger stories about who we’ll be as people
and what higher education will be in the future. In this section we offer several of these
larger stories through a series of scenarios that reflect on where these trends and
technologies and practices may ultimately lead us in 10 years’ time.
To paint these scenarios, we use a forecasting framework from the Institute for the Growth
Future (IFTF) to envision four distinct possible futures that each takes a different
angle on how today might be leading into tomorrow. The first scenario we envision is
characterized as Growth, a scenario in which the current trajectories of things today
have continued along their same paths into the future, breaking past previous limits.
The second scenario is Constraint, a scenario in which higher education has organized
itself around a common threat or core guiding value or principle that drives our
decision-making and animates our daily practices. In the third scenario, Collapse, we
imagine a future in which higher education has experienced a series of breakdowns and
Collapse
widespread changes that ultimately leave many institutions decimated due to a failure
of human systems to overcome inherent tensions or weaknesses. In the Transformation
scenario, a new paradigm has been established within higher education that has led to
a fundamental shift in the ways we think about and carry out education, stretching our
imaginations and challenging our assumptions.
The scenarios we offer here represent only potential futures, of course. With so much
changing around us seemingly on a daily basis, it is impossible to know with any degree
of certainty who we’ll be and what higher education will be in 2034. The best we can do in
the present day is use exercises like these to get better at anticipating and planning and
to practice creative thinking about our future, grounded in the best information we have
available to us, so that we can be more prepared to face whatever future does eventually
arrive.
Priya nestles into the corner of her couch, her morning The virtual campus is alive with activity, teeming with student
coffee in one hand, a VR remote in the other. Through her VR avatars coming and going, groups huddled here and there
lenses she navigates across a virtual college campus toward in private conversations. Priya stops and toggles over the
a towering glass “Data Strategies” building, where she’s “Participants” icon—it shows 112,350 students currently
registered to earn a three-month credential in machine- logged in to campus. “Map view,” she says. A display of the
learning algorithms. United States zooms in and shows a scattering of dots in the
northeast and down the east coast into Florida. Formerly a
Just a year ago her employer, a national food store chain, four-year brick-and-mortar institution planted in the hills of
offloaded most of her responsibilities to a new AI-powered Arkansas and primarily pulling in traditional students from its
platform and offered Priya the opportunity to return to school surrounding communities, the school is now all but completely
to acquire new skills needed to help manage that platform. virtual and widely dispersed across the eastern United States.
With two teenagers and a mortgage—and a growing desire for It boasts nearly tripled enrollments over the past five years,
something new—she jumped at the opportunity. especially among adult learners.
Her employer subsidizes most of her second-career Priya takes a sip of her coffee. “How am I doing?” she asks. A
learning, covering the cost of tuition and learning materials dashboard pops into view, displaying a series of graphs and
and offering a few hours of paid time each week needed data points. A warm automated voice responds, “You are still on
for learning and coursework. She has the option of earning track to complete your credentials on time, but your employer
additional credentials of more personal interest—she earned has recommended you for an additional advanced module in
a creative writing credential a few months ago—though those team leadership skills.”
credentials have to be earned on her own time and expense.
She smiles. “Okay, let’s do it.”
I
n this future, unfettered growth of AI technologies has of higher education, leading to education experiences that
led to widespread and substantive changes to the global are more inclusive and more attainable for a larger and
workforce across most industries. Re-skilling is needed more diverse population of learners. Industry has become a
by a more diverse and nontraditional community of students. more engaged and vital partner in the shaping and offering
Higher education institutions have significantly revised their of higher education, providing input into new learning
education models to focus on quickly evolving workforce requirements and curricula, filling instructor gaps where
skills, leveraging anytime, anywhere learning to improve more industry-experienced faculty are needed, and helping
instructional agility and responsiveness to industry demands. subsidize and funnel current and future employees through
the skills programs they need.
Enrollments among multi-career, adult learners far outpace
the numbers of traditional students, which have continued The public’s perception of the benefits and usefulness of
their decades-long decline. The availability of traditional higher education has started to climb, even for some liberal
degree programs and credentials has declined as well, having arts programs that have successfully promoted the durability
been broken down into smaller components, combined, or and importance of the less “technical” skills they provide.
rebuilt around the specific workforce-related skills that More niche humanities-based programs, however, remain
institutions may be able to provide. under close scrutiny and suspicion, based on a perceived
lack of transferability to the workforce. These programs are
Shorter-term microcredentials, flexible degree options, largely viewed as luxury “add on” programs relegated to
and skills-based certifications have become the new norm smaller markets serving narrower special interests.
Devin loads the last bit of his luggage into the trunk of his car, once state funding dried up and alternative, private sources
pressing it down so that he can close the latch. His car is filled of funding proved insufficient. Most of the institutions in the
to the brim—he’s leaving home for the first time in his life and state that remained open did so by embracing or at least
driving several states away to attend college. He doesn’t want accommodating the new educational standards, standards that
to leave the family and friends and places he knows and loves, Devin in good conscience simply couldn’t accept for his own
but the political tides of his home state are casting him away. personal learning journey.
Nearly a decade ago, state leadership put forward new “I wish you’d reconsider,” Devin’s mother says, making one
standards for postsecondary curriculum and assessment, final plea as she watches her son finish loading his car.
infusing those standards with their own political and moral
values and mandating that institutions adhere to those “I’ll visit soon, and often,” Devin replies. He’d thought about
standards or lose all state funding and support. In the months forgoing college altogether so that he wouldn’t need to uproot
that followed, some institutions saw waves of students, and move away. His friends who decided not to enroll in college
faculty, and staff exit in protest and simply couldn’t maintain seemed to be doing well enough, and his mother had offered
enrollments and operations. him a decent entry-level job at her medical practice. Most
people didn’t really seem to need a college degree anymore, at
“I’m halfway through my semester and half of my professors least if all the reports and news stories were to be believed.
are gone,” Devin’s cousin once told him over a family dinner a
few years back. Still, Devin knows the choice he’s making is the best one for
him. He waves to his parents through the car window and puts
Other institutions shored up their values and pushed back the car in drive.
against the state’s new standards but couldn’t stay afloat
I
n this future, global political division and conflict is are more closely involved not only in vetting and selecting
putting pressure on higher education institutions. More institutional leaders who will support the state’s political and
and more institutions find themselves faced with an moral values but also in ousting institutional leaders who
impossible choice: align with local, state, and federal political won’t support those values. Faculty, seeing their intellectual
and moral ideologies, thereby alienating a large portion of and academic freedoms erode, resign from their positions
learners and instructors and staff, or lose vital state and en masse, either seeking friendlier institutions elsewhere or
federal funding and face inevitable shutdown. pursuing new careers altogether.
Degree programs, curricula, and even teaching and learning Most institutions’ enrollments have plummeted as the public
practices and materials have become vehicles for carrying has grown increasingly disillusioned with higher education
and advancing particular political and moral agendas. Niche and as local- and state-level political and moral mandates
education service and technology providers are emerging to have driven many potential students away. Alternative
accommodate these agendas where existing providers can’t professional pathways and credentialing options are more
or won’t support politically and morally aligned institutions. attractive to many students than a traditional postsecondary
The divisions and tensions within the education service and route that is fraught with division and offers increasingly
technology markets now mirror the larger divisions and limited local or residential choices. More and more
tensions rending higher education and the world. institutions, even institutions once viewed as more enduring
“flagship” schools, are closing their doors, unable to square
Higher education has experienced widespread turnover ideological alignment with financial viability.
in both institutional leadership and faculty. State officials
Alex walks briskly along the red-brick sidewalk that winds up shows a student struggling under the weight of data graphs
to the STEM building, their head tilted down and forward with and algorithms piled up on their back.
determination. They’re running late for class, thanks in no
small part to a traffic jam that their old, folded city map was no Inside the building, Alex half runs, half walks down a short
help in navigating around. corridor to their classroom. Sunlight cuts into the hallway in
beams through windows centuries older than anyone in the
Just to the left of the STEM building’s front entryway and building. “I’m so sorry to be so late,” Alex announces to a room
resting at the edge of a thicket of blackberry bramble, a “digital full of students. The students settle into their seats and open
lock box” kiosk stands with half of its small metal doors shut their paper pads, pencils in hand ready to scratch down notes.
and padlocked. Alex finds an open locker and places their
phone and laptop inside. They forgot their padlock today, but Alex tests a marker or two on the white board before finding
the padlocks are more of a psychological salve—the biometric one with enough ink. “I have a few handouts for you today that
encryption on Alex’s devices wouldn’t allow anyone else to use we need to go over, including your study guide for next week’s
the devices anyway. test,” Alex says. “But first, I need to make a correction to one of
the equations I showed you last time.”
On the side of the kiosk, amid flyers for tutoring services and
social clubs, a sign cautions passersby, “No digital devices The squeaking of marker and scratching of pencils fills the
beyond this point!” Next to the sign a poster asks, “Is data room. A song can faintly be heard as outside one of the old
pollution dragging you down? DataBusters™ can help you windows across the hall a starling alights on the branch of a
eliminate unnecessary personal data!” An image on the poster blackberry bramble.
I
n this future, widespread surges in cybercrime are The use of personal devices on campus networks is strictly
all over the news. Media outlets compare online prohibited or significantly reduced and heavily monitored.
environments to crime-riddled metropolitan areas, Coursework, research, and collaboration are exclusively
cautioning the public to shore up their data and device done on closed networks and devices or through more “back
protection or to simply stay offline whenever possible. to basics” analog methods. Online learning, and online
Security and privacy advocates find allies in climate and ethics platforms for transacting with and supporting students, are
leaders who decry the environmental and human costs of eliminated. Classrooms look like time capsules preserving a
excessive data collection and use, gaining sufficient influence bygone era—notes are taken by pencil and paper, instructors
to lead sweeping social and political changes in national and write on boards, textbooks weigh down students’ bags.
global data practices.
A small number of well-resourced institutions can afford to
As stewards of large data repositories, higher education buttress their technology infrastructure and security against
institutions are implementing strict data governance, external threats, relying on increased security and privacy
network security, and data and device removal policies. staff and systems for maintaining cutting- edge technologies
Most institutions operate through an “as little as possible” and online and digital practices. These institutions enjoy a
stance on the data they collect and store from their students, unique competitive advantage among technology-minded
faculty, and staff. Data and analytics leaders, for their part, segments of the public, as well as among students who rely
have failed to make a compelling case for their continued on assistive technologies and flexible modalities for engaging
utility. Institutions reduce or completely shutter their data in their courses. A yawning digital divide opens between
analytics functions, believing that the benefits of collecting these institutions and “back to basics” institutions, as does an
and using data no longer outweigh the increasing risks to the ideological divide on the purpose of and best approaches to
institution’s security and survival. education.
“Hello, Madison.” is light. Adjusting for your current state of elevated exhaustion,
and shifting a portion of this task to your schedule tomorrow, I
The greeting fades in and then out as Madison logs into her recommend reading 35 pages during your train ride today.”
learning portal. Her seat on the train is cramped, but she
adjusts the size of her holoscreen to fit comfortably on the “That’s better,” Madison says as she closes the message. She
seatback tray in front of her. The Peruvian countryside rushes pulls the book up on her screen and begins to read. As she
by outside her window. reaches the end of the first page, a lightbulb icon appears on
the screen with another message. “The page you’ve just read
Madison pulls her “to do” list onto the screen and lets out a contains important details for your upcoming comprehension
sigh—200 pages of Faulkner to read before the end of the week. assessment. Would you like to see an in-depth review of these
She points a finger at the “I need help” icon to the side of the details now or save this review for later?” Madison opts to save
task, and the system thinks for a moment. A message pops review for later, which prompts another, more urgent message.
up, “You have two hours left in your train ride. Based on your
average reading speed and comprehension scores, and with “You have failed to complete past reviews, which has likely
the recommended assisted review, you can get 65 pages of this impacted your assessment scores so far this term,” the
book read by the time you reach your destination.” message cautions. “Your instructor has recommended that you
complete your reviews as you read rather than saving them for
Madison furrows her brow. She points at the “Give me more later. Would you like to see an in-depth review now?”
help” button at the bottom of the message. The system thinks
once more, for slightly longer this time. “Your sleep patterns Madison huffs and waves her hand to power down the
have been erratic the last few days, likely due to your travel,” holoscreen. She shifts and settles into her seat and closes her
the message reads. “And I see that your schedule tomorrow eyes to rest as the countryside rushes by.
I
n this future, declining public perceptions of higher individualized coaching and remediation, devoting considerably
education and the mounting student debt crisis have less time to direct instruction and the day-to-day management
exacerbated enrollment challenges for institutions. Higher of coursework and student engagement.
education leaders call for institutions to improve their value to
learners by refocusing on hyper-individualized instruction and a Students are viewed not only as “learners” but also
commitment to the greater good. increasingly as “digital consumers” with expectations fitted to
the global digital economy. Marketing, communications, and
Degree programs, courses, and even individual course sessions enrollment are highly personalized and tied to each student’s
and tasks become tailored and unique to each individual larger digital footprint and consumer behaviors. Partnerships
learner, adjusting to their learning preferences and styles and between institutions and industry support the sharing of
their personal goals for their experience. Higher education consumer data and of profits from increased enrollments.
has become a “choose your own adventure” undertaking, and
collaborative, social approaches to learning are in short supply. With highly tailored and personalized educational experiences,
and more satisfied learners and families, institutions are
New AI technologies and analytics capabilities help guide better positioned to offer the public a compelling argument for
individual students along their educational journey. These the benefits of higher education and a compelling argument
tools provide instruction, responsive coursework prompts for the “public good” they serve. Public perceptions of the
and assistance, tailored learning content and materials, and value of higher education slow their decline and even increase
individualized pathways toward each student’s program and among some segments, and enrollments begin to turn around
learning outcomes. Faculty increasingly focus on administrative for those institutions with the resources to support the data
tasks, managing the outputs of their AI and data systems, and and digital infrastructure needed for hyper-personalization.
T
he Horizon Report methodology is grounded in the perspectives and knowledge of an expert panel of practitioners and
thought leaders from around the world who represent the higher education, teaching and learning, and technology fields.
This year’s group included returning and first-time Horizon panelists, all sought out for their unique viewpoints, as well as for
their contributions and leadership within their respective domains. The panel represents a balance of global contexts. We also sought
balances in gender, ethnicity, and institutional size and type. Dependent as the Horizon Report is on the voices of its panel, every effort
was made to ensure those voices were diverse and that each could uniquely enrich the group’s work.
This expert panel research utilized a modified Delphi influencing the future of higher education, the IFTF “STEEP”
process and elements adapted from the Institute for the trends framework enabled our panel to focus on social,
Future (IFTF) foresight methodology. In the Delphi process, technological, economic, environmental, and political trends.
an organized group of experts discusses and converges on This effectively broadened the panel’s input and discussions
a set of forecasts for the future, on the basis of their own beyond the walls of higher education to more explicitly call
expertise and knowledge. For this report, panelists were attention to the larger contexts within which teaching and
tasked with responding to and discussing a series of open- learning takes place. These larger trends—and the current
ended prompts, as well as participating in subsequent evidence and anticipated impacts of these trends—served
rounds of consensus voting (see sidebar “Panel Questions”), as the grounds on which the panel built its discussions
all focused on identifying the trends, technologies, and on the emerging technologies and practices influencing
practices that will be most important for shaping the future postsecondary teaching and learning.
of postsecondary teaching and learning. Ideas for important
trends, technologies, and practices emerged directly from the As they provided their inputs and engaged one another in
expert panelists and were voted on by the panel. EDUCAUSE discussion, panelists shared news articles, research, and
staff provided group facilitation and technical support but other materials that would help reinforce their inputs and
minimal influence on the content of the panel’s inputs and provide evidence for their particular viewpoints on current and
discussions. This was done to protect the core intent of the future trends. In addition to enriching the panel’s discussions
Delphi process—capturing a reliable consensus from a group and supporting the panel’s voting and consensus processes,
of experts that represents their collective expertise and these materials were collected by EDUCAUSE staff for use as
knowledge. evidence and further reading in the writing of this report. In
the Delphi and IFTF methodologies, these collected materials
The framing of the questions and voting across each also serve the purpose of ensuring that the panel’s future
round of panel input was adapted from IFTF’s foresight forecasts are sufficiently grounded in “real” data and trends.
methodology and drew upon the IFTF trends framework
and process for collecting evidence and impacts for trends. For information about research standards, including for
Ensuring an expansive view across all the many factors sponsored research, see the EDUCAUSE Research Policy.
Round 3 (for each of the top 15 trends Each nomination should include 1) a description of the key
identified by the panel): technology or practice as the title; 2) its impact on teaching
What additional evidence can you provide for this trend? and learning in higher education; and 3) links to supporting
Examples of good evidence include recent (i.e., within news or research. To enrich the content, we encourage you
the last year) research reports, credible news stories, to comment on the posts of your colleagues to add your
personal experiences, etc. thoughts.
• Which of the following trends are supported or mitigated by <tech/practice>? Select all that apply.
• In what ways could higher education stakeholders (i.e., staff, faculty, students) use <tech/practice> to support the
holistic student experience?
• What risks, if any, might higher education stakeholders (i.e., staff, faculty, students) face when implementing <tech/
practice>?
• How, if at all, might higher education stakeholders (i.e., staff, faculty, students) leverage <tech/practice> to support
diversity, equity, and inclusion?
• What further reading (e.g., news articles, institutional examples) about <tech/practice> can you suggest for readers of
the Horizon Report?
Supporting AI Fluency
AI EduCraft Series: Revolutionizing Teaching and Partners for Algorithmic Literacy: Student–
Research Faculty Learning Community
Tailored for faculty, the EduCraft micro-workshop series on The Partners for Algorithmic Literacy (PAL) learning
artificial intelligence in higher education prioritizes a human- community at Purdue University Libraries transforms
centered pedagogy. Focusing on practical applications, academia’s response to AI from reactive to proactive and
participants develop AI literacy to seamlessly integrate participatory, bridging ingrained barriers between teachers
technology into teaching and research. The series explores AI’s and learners. PAL creates a supportive, collaborative space
impact on education, emphasizing a balanced approach that where students and instructors build inclusive educational
enhances student-centric learning. By dissecting the role of AI experiences that create engagement through AI technologies.
in reshaping assessments and addressing ethical concerns, As partners, participants share perspectives and engage in
it ensures faculty understand and apply these technologies groundbreaking work to co-design curricular plans that foster
with empathy, fostering an inclusive and effective educational dialogue and shared decision-making about AI in classrooms.
experience.
Design Forward: The AI Challenge
Artificial Intelligence for Business Innovation and The AI Challenge is a self-paced, online module to build
Sustainability faculty capacity around generative AI. Organized around
The purpose of Artificial Intelligence for Business Innovation teaching with, teaching against, and teaching about generative
and Sustainability (AIBIS) is to promote student engagement, AI, the module provides a grounding in how generative AI
applied learning, and career success by introducing AI works and its practical affordances; it also challenges faculty
curriculum content in active-learning business classrooms in to think critically about generative AI as they facilitate student
which students explore how to create and foster sustainable engagement with the technologies. The module, designed by
business practices using AI. We collected and curated open the Plymouth State University Open CoLab, is free and open to
educational resources on AI in a publicly available webpage everyone.
designed by the business library team.
Navigating the Future: Open Education with
Demystifying AI: Digital Detox 2024 Generative AI
Demystifying AI is a series of six interactive modules developed “Navigating the Future: Open Education with Generative AI”
by Middlebury College focused on engaging a diverse audience is an online course that explores the connections between
around the fundamentals of AI through exploration and generative AI, open educational resources (OER), and open
play but with a focus on moral and ethical use. Participants pedagogy. This course was developed by College of the
explore these technologies while gaining the skills needed to Canyons as the technical assistance provider for the California
navigate this nascent environment as critical users—protecting Community College Chancellor’s Office Zero Textbook Cost
themselves, behaving ethically, and taking advantage of the Grant Program. The course is offered free through the @One
affordances of an increasingly AI-entwined future. California Virtual Campus and is openly licensed.
MIT Sloan Teaching with Generative AI Resource AI and Information Literacy Online Module
Hub University of Maryland’s Libraries and Teaching and Learning
MIT Sloan’s AI Hub aims to guide faculty in leveraging AI to Transformation Center collaborated to create an online
enhance teaching and learning. It offers practical strategies, module on AI and information literacy that can be inserted into
curated tools, and real examples from classrooms to any course. It trains students to evaluate how to use AI-based
support faculty in thoughtfully integrating generative AI while tools responsibly in academic work by providing a strong
prioritizing student privacy and ethical considerations. foundation on the mechanisms and ethics of these tools, as
well as strategies for verifying and citing content from them.