Summer Internship Project Market research of the thin films technology and using it as a differentiator for positioning it in the

international markets

SIP Project Report Submitted In Partial Fulfillment of Requirements for the PGDM Program 2010-12

Submitted by Name: Ashish Mohan Srivastava Roll number: 2010268

Supervisors: 1. Mr. Raj Kumar Verma Assistant Manager (Projects and Services) Moserbaer Photovoltaic India Ltd. 2. Professor J.Mohanty

Institute Of Management Technology, Nagpur 2010-12

Acknowledgement
It gives me a great sense of pleasure to present the report after undergoing an intense summer internship at Moserbaers Photo Voltaic wing. It is really difficult to gratify each and every person who has been instrumental in the completion of the project but I am taking great care that no one is left out. So in the same sequence at very first, I would like to acknowledge my parents because of whom I got the existence in the world for the inception and the conception of this project. Later on I would like to confer my acknowledgement to Mr. J.Mohanty my faculty guide and other faculty members who taught me that how to do project through appropriate tools and techniques. Because Moserbaer India Ltd. has trusted me and given me a chance to do my integrated research study, I would like to give thanks to the organization and especially to Mr. Raj Kumar Verma (Asst. Manager, Projects and Services) my corporate mentor and Mr. Sanjeev Kumar (Research Scientist) from the depth of my heart. I would also like to thank Mr. Rakesh Singh (GM- projects) of Moserbaer Photovoltaic without his sincere efforts I would not have been able to get into this esteemed organization. Rest all those people who helped me are not only matter of acknowledgment but also authorized for sharing my success.

INDUSTRY CERTIFICATE
This is to certify that the project work done on Study of the thin films technology and using it as a market differentiator for positioning it in International markets Submitted to Institute of Management Technology, Nagpur by Ashish Mohan Srivastava in partial fulfillment of the requirement for the award of PG Diploma in Business Management, is a bonafide work carried out by him/her under my supervision and guidance. This work has not been submitted anywhere else for any other degree/diploma. The original work was carried during May 10, 2011 to June 10, 2011 in Moserbaer Photovoltaic India Ltd, New Delhi.

Date:

Name and Signatures

TAB LE OF CO NTENTS  INSIDE

1 2 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 3 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.6 4 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.4

EXEC UTI VE SUM MARY INTROD UCT ION PHOTO VOL TAIC

-----------------------------------------10

----------------------------------------13

AMORPH OUS SILI CON( A-SI) ---------- -------------- ----------------15 CADM IUM T ELLUR IDE (C DTE ) ------------------------ ----------------17 CIS/CI GS EMERG ING COMPANY PRO FIL E HISTORY PROMOT ERS ----------------------------------------21 ----------------------------------------22 ----------------------------------------18 ----------------------------------------19

VISSION AND M ISSION ----------------------------------------26 COMPANY AN D ITS PROD UCT LIN E ---------------- ----------------27 VALU E CHA IN MILES TONES RESEARC H ME THO DOLO GY PRIMARY OBJ ECT IVE SECOND ARY OBJE CTI VE RESEARC H DESI GN RESEARC H PLAN ---------------------------------------37 ---------------------------------------37 ---------------------------------------38 ---------------------------------------38 ---------------------------------------32 ---------------------------------------33

5 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.4 5.5

DATA AN ALYSIS AN D FIND INGS REGUL ATORY PO LICI ES SWOT ANALYSIS TECHN OLOG Y ANALYS IS COST ANAL YSIS MARKE T ANALYS IS ---------------------------------------41 ---------------------------------------43 ---------------------------------------51 ---------------------------------------54 ---------------------------------------58

6 6.1 6.2 6.3 6.4 6.5

RECOM MEND ATI ONS MARKE T SEGM ENTS NEW APPLICA TIONS MARKE T STRAT EGI ES BIBLIOGR APHY ANNEXUR E --------------------------------------67 --------------------------------------70 ---------------------------------------71 ---------------------------------------75 ---------------------------------------78

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
In this changing world everything that holds today becomes obsolete or less competitive the next day.

In the same context we at moserbaer are constantly trying to keep ourselves updated and ahead of our competitors. Thus the role of the Research and Development department increases many folds. These days a new type of solar cell technology using so-called thin-film solar photovoltaic material is in full swing and this is because it uses either very little or no silicon at all. Thin film (TF) solar technology promises to reduce the cost of solar modules to a level where solar power could compete effectively with power generated from fossil fuel alternatives, thus accelerating our society's transition to distributed, renewable forms of energy sources. Furthermore, because thin-film solar PV materials can be applied to surfaces as varied as glass, plastic and flexible metal foils, this emerging technology could open up new range of applications that otherwise would not be possible using traditional solar cells. The scope of this project is to analyze the technical merits of the different thin-film solar technologies, their market and applications, and the dynamics of a growing, new industry. We will compare the different thin-film solar technologies against each other and against the dominant poly-silicon technology. Next, we will take a look at the makeup of the thin-film industry and study the different technology strategies employed by players in this industry. We'll highlight a few manufacturers of each type of technology and present a snapshot of the industry in terms of current production and forecasted manufacturing capacity. We'll conclude with a technology outlook and recommend possible technology strategies for the a-Si technology.

INTRODUCTION
Photovoltaic

Photovoltaic (PV) is the field of technology and research related to the application of solar cells for energy by converting sun energy (sunlight or sun ultra violet radiation) directly into electricity. Due to the growing demand for clean sources of energy, the manufacture of solar cells and photovoltaic has expanded dramatically in recent years. Photovoltaic are best known as a method for generating electric power by using solar cells packaged in photovoltaic modules, often electrically connected in multiples as solar photovoltaic arrays to convert energy from the sun into electricity. To explain the photovoltaic solar panel more simply, photons from sunlight knock electrons into a higher state of energy, thereby creating electricity. The term photovoltaic denotes the unbiased operating mode of a photodiode in which current through the device is entirely due to the transuded light energy. Virtually all photovoltaic devices are some type of photodiode. Solar cells produce direct current electricity from light, which can be used to power equipment or to recharge a battery. The first practical application of photovoltaics was to power orbiting satellites and other spacecraft, but today the majority of photovoltaic modules are used for grid connected power generation. In this case an inverter is required to convert the DC to AC. There is a smaller market for off grid power for remote dwellings, roadside emergency telephones, remote sensing, and cathodic protection of pipelines. Cells require protection from the environment and are usually packaged tightly behind a glass sheet. When more power is required than a single cell can deliver, cells are electrically connected together to form photovoltaic modules, or solar panels. A single module is enough to power an emergency telephone, but for a house or a power plant the modules must be arranged in arrays. Although the selling price of modules is still too high to compete with grid electricity in most places, significant financial incentives in Japan and then Germany, Italy and France triggered a huge growth in demand, followed quickly by production. In 2008, Spain installed 45% of all

photovoltaic, but a change in law limiting the Feed-in Tariff is expected to cause a precipitous drop in installations there, from 2500 MW in 2008 to 375 MW in 2009. Perhaps not unexpectedly, a significant market has emerged in off-grid locations for solarpower-charged storage-battery based solutions. These often provide the only electricity available.

The EPIA (European Photovoltaic Industry Association) shows that by the year 2030, PV systems could be generating approximately 1,864 GW of electricity around the world. This means that, assuming a serious commitment is made to energy efficiency, enough solar power would be produced globally in twenty-five years time to satisfy the electricity needs of almost 14% of the worlds population.

Types of technologies in thin film photovoltaic are:

1. Amorphous Silicon(a-Si) 2. Cadmium Telluride (CdTe) 3. Copper indium gallium (di)selenide (CIGS) 4. Dye Sensitized Solar Cells (DSSC) Our major focus will be on Amorphous Silicon technology a-Si). A question that is often asked in this industry is: "Which thin-film technology is better?" All thin-film technologies listed above are economically viable and have demonstrated the ability to ramp up into large-scale manufacturing. A more appropriate question for the future is "Which thin-film technology will dominate?" In addition, thin-film technologies considered as a whole could potentially be disruptive to traditional silicon-based PV technology. Therefore Another important question is "Will thin-film PV technology replaces traditional PV technology?"

In the next section we will analyze the merits of these four technologies and compare them against each other. To explore the theory that thin-film PV solar could be a disruptive technology to traditional PV solar, we will also compare thin-film technology with traditional poly-silicon technology.

Amorphous Silicon (a-Si)

Amorphous silicon technology is the most mature thin-film technology and was the first technology to be available commercially in large volumes. Research into this technology began as far as 1975 when Sanyo produced the first hybrid amorphous-Si on crystalline silicon cell. Since then, many thin-film companies have adopted this technology pushing the boundaries of its conversion efficiency and helping it achieve the largest production volume amongst all thin-film technologies. The evolution of this technology is illustrated in the number of different configurations available. Single junction configuration (a-Si) is the oldest, but has the lowest conversion efficiency. Double junction, a-Si (2), and triple-junction, a-Si (3), configurations have followed with increased conversion efficiency and stability over time. In addition, a new type of a-Si technology, called micro morph (gpcSi/a-Si), has recently emerged, breathing new life into this mature technology.

Amorphous silicon solar cells are produced using a variety of deposition techniques at relatively low temperatures (< 300 degC) 7 using either a rigid or flexible substrate. Unlike in crystalline Si cells, the silicon used in a-Si cells is amorphous (has no shape) and can be deposited in thin layers from gaseous chemical compounds such as silane (SiH 4) or other hydrogenated silicon alloys. A few companies have developed roll-to-roll manufacturing techniques using flexible substrates such as stainless steel or plastic film. United Solar, the largest manufacturer in this segment produces modules on flexible stainless steel, but the flexibility is limited due to the substrate thickness. One company, PowerFilm Solar, produces an a-Si cell on a paper-thin (0.025 mm)

plastic foil8. Most other manufacturers use glass as the substrate. A-Si solar cells are well suited to multi-junction layers which enable optimum utilization of the solar spectrum. As shown in the figure below, multiple layers of PV material tuned to specific spectral bands are deposited on a substrate and between two layers of electrical contacts to form the back and front contacts. Traditionally, though, a-Si solar cells consist of a single layer of PV material (a single-junction configuration). The efficiency of single-junction a-Si cells can be rather low (less than 5%) and because of this,

the technology has evolved over the years into so-called double-junction (two layers) and triple junction (three layers) cells with efficiencies as high as 8%. A major drawback of a-Si cells is the degradation of cell efficiency over time due to the so-called Staebler-Wronski (S-W) effect. Although this effect can be minimized through various manufacturing processes, it is nonetheless present and must be accounted for. On the other hand, despite the low conversion efficiency, aSi cells tend to work better in low-light conditions and, therefore, are well-suited to indoor applications. An important new developing in a-Si technology is the combination of an amorphous-Si layer with a microcrystalline silicon layer to form a tandem cell structure called a micromorph cell. The microcrystalline layer exhibits both enhanced optical absorption and stability under extended light-soaking conditions, thereby resulting in higher efficiency, stable cells. A number of established companies such as Sharp and Mitsubishi have migrated to this new technology and a majority of the new firms entering the industry in this technology subsegment such as the new spin-off from Q-Cells (Brilliant 234) and Moser Baer (in partnership with Applied Materials) are adopting this new technology suggesting that there's still plenty of growth in this mature thin film industry segment.

Cadmium Telluride (CdTe)

Next to amorphous-silicon, cadmium telluride (CdTe), is the other mature and well-understood thin-film technology. CdTe technology has been around nearly as long as amorphous silicon with the research beginning in early 1970s. The largest thin-film PV manufacturer in the world at this moment is First Solar, a company that produces CdTe-based solar panels. First Solar's 2006 production of 60 MW accounts for 32% of the worldwide thin-film PV market. CdTe technology has two strong advantages. First, it uses a semiconductor material whose bandgap is perfectly matched with the solar spectrum thereby providing the potential for high efficiency modules. Secondly, it has the lowest cost large-scale manufacturing process at the moment, and therefore the lowest price, making it an attractive option for large scale solar farm applications. CdTe-based solar cells are produced by depositing four layers of material: a tin oxide (TCO) layer used as the front electrical contact, followed by a layer of n-type CdS, followed by a layer of p-type CdTe and finally a layer of conducting material as the back

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electrical contact. Typical substrate used in CdTe technology is glass (soda lime or borosilicate glass). To be more precise, CdTe cells use a superstrate configuration, rather than a substrate configuration; the layers are deposited on the backside of a glass material as shown below and the light strikes the thin-film material through the deposition surface. Because of this, the superstrate configuration can only use transparent glass as the thin-film deposition surface. Production module efficiency for CdTe is in the order of 9% with the efficiency, in laboratory conditions, demonstrated to be 15.8%. Matsushita Battery is one company experimenting with a radical new process of screen printing CdTe PV materials, however it does not have any largescale manufacturing at the moment. In fact, only two companies, First Solar and Antec Solar, have large-scale manufacturing plants and are currently shipping CdTe-based solar modules.

Copper Indium (Gallium) Di-Selenide (CIS/CIGS)

CIGS technology holds the distinction of being the highest performance thin-film technology with record cell efficiency, in laboratory conditions, of 19.2%. Because of this, CIGS technology is being hailed as one of the most promising solar power technologies and the companies that have adopted CIGS technology have been the focus of much media and investor attention in recent months. CIGS technology uses a rigid or flexible substrate coated with multiple layers of materials beginning with a molybdenum (Mo) layer, followed by the CIGS absorber layer (the main layer that absorbs the photons; also the thickest layer), followed by a cadmium sulfide (CdS) buffer layer and then a zinc oxide (ZnO) layer. The device is completed by adding a top grid layer of aluminum or nickel and an antireflective coating. CIGS manufacturing process includes a variety of processes such as sputtering, electro-deposition and vapor deposition. In the assembly process, laser scribing is often used to connect the front and back sides of adjacent

11

cells to create a CIGS module. Some companies use a so-called monolithic integration process to automatically build the connections between solar cells during the deposition process rather than using a separate assembly process. Monolithic integration can lead to significant manufacturing cost savings.

Emerging
Next generation thin-film technologies are still in the research phase, but a few companies are starting to move into pilot production phase and planning large-scale manufacturing using novel PV materials. Emerging thin-film PV cells (often called 3 rd generation cells) use materials ranging from organic materials, to nano-based materials and dye-sensitized titanium oxide (DSC). The conversion of light to electricity in these materials occurs through a process of photo-synthesis similar to the one observed in biological materials. Emerging thin-film PV cells can be manufactured at very low cost because of relatively inexpensive materials and simple processing. Information about materials and manufacturing processes used in this field is scarce as many companies prefer to keep details of their technology secret while still conducting research. In this category, the dye-sensitized solar cells (DSC) seem to have the biggest lead at the moment. Research into DSC technology has been going on for almost 20 years. One of the lead researchers in this field, Dr. Michael Graetzel, has helped bring this technology from laboratory into production. One company, G24 Innovations, is building a 30 MW pilot facility using a technology license from Konarka, an early pioneer in this field. Efficiency of DSC cells has been observed to be as high as 11% with production modules expected to reach an efficiency of about 5-6%.

COMPANY PROFILE
HISTORY

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Moser Baer India was founded in New Delhi in 1983 as a Time Recorder unit in technical collaboration with Maruzen Corporation, Japan and Moser Baer Sumiswald, Switzerland.

In 1988, Moser Baer India moved into the data storage industry by commencing manufacturing of 5.25-inch Floppy Diskettes. By 1993, it graduated to manufacturing 3.5-inch Micro Floppy Diskettes (MFD).

In 1999, Moser Baer India set up a 150-million unit capacity plant to manufacture Recordable Compact Disks (CD-Rs) and Recordable Digital Versatile Disks (DVD-Rs). The strategy for the optical media project was identical to what had successfully been implemented in the diskette business - creating a facility that matched global standards in terms of size, technology, quality, product flexibility and process integration. The company is today the only large Indian manufacturer of magnetic and optical media data storage products, exporting approximately 85 percent of its production. Since inception, Moser Baer has always endeavored to create its space in the international market. Aiding the company in its efforts has been a carefully-planned and sustainable business model - low costs, high margins, high profits, reinvestment and capacity growth. Along the way, deep relationships have been forged with leading OEMs, with the result that today there are hardly any global technology brands in the optical media segment that Moser Baer is not associated with the company announced its foray into the Photovoltaic and Home Entertainment businesses. In 2007, the IT Peripherals and Consumer Electronics division was formed.

PROMOTORS

The difference between a good company and a great one lies in its core management team. Moser Baer's Board is a classic example of just how a group of thought leaders, visionaries, evangelists and technocrats can come together to galvanize a company to achieve excellence -

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and that too on a global scale. Meet the people who provide the inspiration and guidance to make it all happen for Moser Baer.

Deepak Puri provides strategic direction to the company. He is the driving force in creating an environment of integrity by ensuring fair business practices and profound respect for Intellectual Property Rights. It is his ceaseless quest for human capital development that has helped steer the company along a continuous growth path. A
Deepak Puri
Managing Director

leading spokesman for the Indian industry, Deepak Puri has never shied from speaking his mind and sharing his opinions. He is also Chairman of the Electronics and Computer Software Export Promotion council (ESC), a non-profit autonomous organization of the Ministry of Information Technology, Government of India. He holds a Master's Degree in Mechanical Engineering from Imperial College, London, and is an alumnus of St Stephens College and Modern School, New Delhi.

Ratul Puri joined Moser Baer in 1994 and has been Executive Director since 2001. Prior to assuming this role, Ratul was General Manager (Business Development). In this capacity, he was instrumental in setting up plants for manufacturing Compact DiscRecordables (CD-Rs), the first to come up in India. He has also played a pivotal role in
Ratul Puri
Executive Director

reinforcing Moser Baer's focus on maximizing shareholder value and in raising funds from best-in-class investors. He has a degree in Computer Engineering from Carnegie Mellon University, USA and did his schooling from St Columbus, New Delhi. Nita Puri is a co-promoter of Moser Baer India Ltd and a Whole-Time Director of the Company. A graduate from Calcutta University, she has over three decades of experience in managing businesses. As Director (Administration and HR), she has been closely involved with the company's growth since its inception.

Nita Puri
Whole Time Director

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Prakash Karnik was a Director at Electra Partners Asia Private Ltd, one of Asia's leading private equity firms. An engineer from the Indian Institute of Technology (Chennai) and a management graduate, he has over 25 years of experience in the engineering and finance sectors. He has worked in senior positions in both government
Prakash Karnik
Director

and private sector organizations, including Jardine Fleming India Securities Ltd, Unit Trust of India and the Economic Development Corporation of Goa Ltd. Rajesh Khanna has been working with Warburg Pincus for the last six years. He is an MBA from the Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad and a Chartered Accountant. He earlier worked with leading finance and consulting firms such as Citibank NA. He is now the Managing Director of Warburg Pincus India Private Ltd

Rajesh Khanna
Director (Nominee Warburg Pincus Singapore LLC)

and also serves on the Boards of Nicholas Piramal India Ltd, Max India Ltd, Max Healthcare Institute Ltd and Max New York Life Insurance Company Ltd.

Bernard Gallus brings with him over four decades of experience in the international technology and finance markets. He was earlier Managing Director and member of the board of J Bosshard SA, Lausanne, later taken over by the manufacturing company W Moser Baer AG, Switzerland.
Bernard Gallus
Director

Arun Bharat Ram is the Chairman and Managing Director of SRF Ltd. A graduate in Industrial Engineering from the University of Michigan, USA, he began his career in 1967 with the Delhi Cloth St General Mills Company Ltd, (now DCM Ltd). He went on to set up SRF Ltd in 1971. In his businesses, he has strongly supported corporate
Arun Bharat Ram
Director

governance initiatives and professionalism. He has been on various governmentindustry committees and is a former President of both the Confederation of Indian Industries (CII) and the Association of Synthetic Fiber Industry.

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John Levack has over 20 years of private equity experience with Electra and 3i Pic in Asia and Europe, four years of which have been in India. Levack has a degree in business administration from Bath University in the UK. He is a Director at Aksh Optifibre Ltd, Zensar Technologies Ltd, Electra Partners Asia Ltd, Electra Partners
John Levack
Director

Mauritius Ltd, EP Asia Ltd, eTelecare International Inc. and RT Packaging Ltd. Mr. V. N Koura has been inducted as an Additional Director of the Company since 29th September, 2006. Mr. Koura received his formal legal education at Lincoln's Inn, London and currently is a senior partner of Koura & Co., a leading firm of legal consultants in India. He is also on the Board of Bharti Infotel Limited, National Cereals

Virander Nath Koura

Director

Products Limited, Controls and Switchgear Contractors Limited and HCL Infosystems Limited. Dr. Vinayshil Gautam has been inducted as a Director of the Company w.e.f 12th December, 2006. He was the first Director of India Institute of Management (Khozikode) and the first Head Management Department at Indian Institute of Technology (IIT), Delhi. He is currently the Dalmia Chair Professor of Management at

Vinayshil Gautam
Director

IIT, Delhi and coordinator of the Institute's Dalmia Research Programme Dr. Vinayshil Gautam was a member of various significant committees of Government of India including the Committee appointed to look into the efficiencies of promotional processes of 10 senior Positions in Government; Quinquennial review team of CMFRI, NAARM; Committee appointed to review the working of NSTEDB, etc. He is also on

the Board of J.K Industries Ltd, Shivam Auto Tech Ltd, EXIM Bank, Steel Authority of India, KEC International Limited. Frank Dangeard was Chairman and CEO of Thomson, a provider of digital video technologies, solutions and services, from 2004 to early 2008. Earlier, he was Senior Executive Vice President of France Telecom, a global telecommunications operator. He is chairman or member of a number of boards or advisory boards of international
Frank E.

companies and non-profit organizations. Dangeard was educated in France and the

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Dangeard
Director

United States. He has been the recipient of the National Order of the Legion of Honour (Chevalier), the highest decoration in France. Viraj Sawhney is a Principal of Warburg Pincus India. He was earlier a consultant with McKinsey & Company. His business experience spans a range of strategic and operational issues across several industries.

Viraj Sawhney
Director

VISION AND MISSION

Vision:
Touching every life across the globe through high technology products and services"

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Mission:
We will drive growth through our excellence in mass manufacturing. We will move up the value chain through rapid development of technology, products and services. We will leverage our relationships, distribution, cost leadership and "can do" attitude to become a global market leader in every business.

Domains of Moserbaer Photovoltaic

Moserbaer photovoltaic
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Thin Films

Polycrystalline Si PV

Value Chain for Polycrystalline Si technology

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Milestones

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1983

Established

1985

Production of 8.0"/5.25" Disks

1987

Production of 3.5" Disks

1998

ISO 9002 Certification

1999

Production of CD-R

2000

Production of CD-RW

2002

Completely Integrated Manufacturing

2003

    

Production of DVD-R Production of DVD-RW ISO Certification for all Facilities Launch of 'Moserbaer' Brand in Indian Market Signed one of Largest Outsourcing Deals in Indian Manufacturing

2004

  

'Light scribe' Deal with HP HP Deal for India and SAARC Region Contributing Member of Blu-Ray Disk Association

2005

   

ISO 14001 & OHSAS 18001 certification for Moser Baer plants. Commencement of Phase III of Greater Noida Plant Announced Moser Baer Photovoltaic Ltd. Received status of SEZ developer from Govt. of India

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Announced a wholly owned subsidiary-Moser Baer SEZ Signed MoU with IIT, Delhi

2006

     

The first company in the world to start volume shipments of HD DVD-R Signed Technology MoU with IT BHU Patented technology approved by the Blu-ray Disc Association In-house R&D Centre approved by Ministry of Science and Technology Launched USB Flash drives Forayed into entertainment space, enters Home Video market

2007

    

Acquired OM&T BV - a Philips' optical technology and R&D subsidiary Announced start of trial run of solar photovoltaic cell production facility Set up the world's largest Thin Film Solar Fab Launched US$150 mn FCCBs Moser Baer Photo Voltaic announced commercial shipment of solar photovoltaic cells

Moser Baer Photo Voltaic announced US$880 million strategic sourcing tie-up with REC Group

Forayed into PC peripherals market: Launches Optical Disk Drives (ODDs), Headphones, Keyboards, Optical Mouse etc.

Launched Branded DVD Player

2009

Moser Baer plans 600 MW Thin Film PV capacity with an estimated investment of over $ 1.5 bn

   

Moser Baer Photo Voltaic announces strategic sourcing tie-up with LDK Solar Moser Baer announces successful trials of first Gen 8.5 Thin Film plant Moser Baer gets the coveted blu-ray product verification Moser Baer signs exclusive home video licensing deal with UTV Motion Pictures

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Moser Baer launches a digital video processing facility in Chennai Moser Baer secures customer sales orders of $500 million for solar modules Global investors inject Rs. 411 crore into Moser Baer's solar photovoltaic business

  

Moser Baer announces successful trials of first Gen 8.5 Thin Film plant Moser Baer Photo Voltaic announces strategic sourcing tie-up with LDK Solar Moser Baer plans 600 MW Thin Film PV capacity with an estimated investment of over $ 1.5 bn

2010

  

Moser Baer launches sleek and stylish MP3 players Moser Baers thin film solar modules are now IEC certified Moser Baer to set up one of Indias largest rooftop solar PV installations in Surat

 

Slim and Elegant Moser Baer TFT Monitor Moser Baers thin film line ready for production of ultra-large solar modules

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Research Methodology

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PRIMARY OBJECTIVE
To do a comparative analysis of our technology with other prevailing and emerging technologies and then use this comparative analysis to differentiate our thin film technology and hence position it in the markets.

As the thin film technology is new in the market, it wanted to know the market potential of its product. Research is done for analyzing the market and growth potential. Market research is called the backbone of Marketing.

SECONDARY OBJECTIVE
y To perform a comparative analysis on basis of technology, market potential, cost and demand. y To prepare a customer satisfaction index survey for the prevailing Moserbaer customers(Worldwide) in addition to knowing the pre sales consumer behavior through survey form y To tap the Fortune 500 companies to be our potential customers in the future

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RESEARCH DESIGN
A research design specifies the methods and procedures for conducting the particular target study. To analyze the market potential, we divided the research into three main categories

1. Exploratory research 2. Descriptive research 3. Causal research But the nature of my research is exploratory research as it focuses on the discovery of ideas. Its goal is to shed light on the real nature of the problem and to suggest possible solution and it involves number of steps.

RESEARCH PLAN Meaning of Research plan

After identifying and defining the problem as also accomplishing the relating task, researcher must arrange his ideas in order and write them in the form of an experimental plan. It was the sum total about the planning of all the things to find out the objective of the Research.

Developing the research plan

The next stage of marketing research calls for developing the most efficient plan for gathering the needed information. Designing the research plan calls for decision on the data sources, research approaches, research instrument, sampling plan and contact method. We segmented the world on the basis of Zone and started working for the project.

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DATA SOURCES
The next st ep is t o det er mine t he sources o f dat a t o be used. As t here are t wo met ho ds of dat a co llect ion. ( i) ( ii) Pr imar y dat a Secondar y dat a

The work carried out in this project is totally based on secondary data.

Secondary data
Secondary data was gathered from Websites, newspaper, magazines, journals, etc. as well as some from the company sources itself.

ANALYZE THE INFORMATION

The final step in the market research process is to extract findings from the collected data. Analysis of the information was done with the help of questionnaire which has been attached in the appendix at the end of the report. The information extracted from the interview data was augmented with an in-depth research of technical literature, web sites, trade journals and discussions with industry veterans. Because of the fast-growing nature of this industry, a lot of the research relied on information found on company websites, in press releases and recent industry articles. Our database was updated almost on a daily basis with new information about companies entering this dynamic industry. We chose to not publish the names of the firms and individuals who contributed to our survey to protect the confidentiality of the information that they provided. We greatly appreciate their contribution and support.

Data Analysis and Findings

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SWOT Analysis Single crystal (c-Si)

Strengths: 1. Oldest and the most stabilized technology 2. Highest efficiency in PV market. 3. Good infrastructure 4. Synergy with the IC industry 5. Largest scale of production

Weakness: 1. Large amount of Silicon 2. Comparatively higher cost of production 3. 3 step process, needs larger area for processing. 4. Less absorption of Solar light 5. Thickness of cells 6. Involvement of Higher process temperatures

Opportunities: 1. Depletion of other resources of energy. 2. Abundance of sunlight as a useful source of energy. 3. Involvement of Defense services in Research and development in this field.

Threats:

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1. Si will get exhausted after some years due to extensive usage. 2. Thin film technologies and other upcoming technologies could pose a serious threat by using either some other material apart from Si or using very less Si. 3. Non availability of large area of land in various countries.

SWOT ANALYSIS (A-Si)

Strengths: Low usage of raw material i.e. Silicon. Involve low process temperatures Use of low cost substrate material Moderate energy consumption and short energy payback times Allow higher voltage lower current devices We can have variability of output voltages Substantial cost reduction potential More favorably adapted to operational conditions than C-Si

y y y y y y y y

Weaknesses: y y y lower efficiencies as compared to other Si technology Slow deposition rates Till date is useful for small scale i.e. up to 50 mw.

Opportunities: y Thin films have long held a niche position in low power (<50MW) and consumer electronics applications, and may offer particular design options for building integrated applications. a Si can be widely used in calculators and in other small consumer electronics items. If efficiency rises a-Si has potential to get into the large utilities segment as well.

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Threats: y y y c- Si technology still a threat because of higher efficiencies and scale of production. CdTe and CIGS also posing a good threat to A-Si technology on the basis that these compounds can be recycled at the end of their life time and thus used again. As time progresses emerging technologies such as DSC would give serious competition to ASi technology both in terms of cost as well as efficiency.

Advantages of a-Si over c-Si

Technology is relatively simple and inexpensive for a-Si For a given layer thickness, a-Si absorbs much more energy than c-Si Much less material required for a-Si films, lighter weight and less expensive Can be deposited on a wide range of substrates, including flexible, curved, and roll-away types Overall efficiency of around 10%, still lower than crystalline silicon but improving

MARKETING
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REGULATORY POLICIES

A Feed-in Tariff is an incentive structure to encourage the adoption of renewable energy through government legislation. The regional or national electricity utilities are obligated to buy renewable electricity (electricity generated from renewable sources, such as solar

photovoltaics, wind power, biomass, hydropower and geothermal power) at market rates set by the government. The higher price helps overcome the cost disadvantages of renewable energy sources. The rate may differ among various forms of power generation. A FiT is normally phased out once the renewable reaches a significant market penetration, such as 20%, as it is not economically sustainable beyond that point. Standard Offer Contracts for renewable power development were in response to the state's investor-owned utilities behavior toward small power producers. In the effort to combat climate change, the increased deployment of renewable energy sources is regarded by many as critical. One major obstacle to this adoption is the retail price of electricity generated from renewable sources, which is typically more expensive than the retail price of electricity generated from fossil fuels. A FiT is a revenue-neutral way of making the installation of renewable energy more appealing. The electricity that is generated is bought by the utility at above market prices. Thus, a small annual increase in the price of electricity per customer can result in a large incentive for people to install renewable energy systems. This is the essence of a FiT: it is a mechanism to instigate a change in the way power is produced, gradually shifting from present polluting means to non-greenhouse methods. It is normally phased out once the change has occurred. In California it covers the first 500 MW of generation only. In Germany the FiT for roof top solar photovoltaics is reduced by 8% in 2009 and 2010 and then by 9% annually from 2011 onwards, instead of by 5% per year. Schemes such as quota incentive structures (renewable energy standards or Renewable Portfolio Standards)

and subsidies create limited protected markets for renewable energy. The supply of renewable energy is achieved by obliging suppliers to deliver to consumers a portion of

31

their electricity from renewable energy sources. In order to do this they collect green electricity certificates This is based on the theory of perfect competition where there is a multiplicity of buyers and sellers in a market where no single buyer or seller has a big enough market share to have a significant influence on prices. Although, in practice, markets are very rarely perfectly competitive, the assumption is still that a relatively competitive market will produce a more efficient use of resources compared to a system where prices are set by Government fiat. In 2007, the Government of India announced the Semiconductor Policy that offers a capital subsidy of 20% for manufacturing plants in SEZs and 25% for manufacturing plants outside SEZs. The subsidy is on the condition that the net present value of the investment is at least Rs 1,000 crore. So far, there have been 12 applications for setting up solar PV plants, which cumulatively could bring an investment of about Rs 66,394 crore (approximately US$ 16 billion).

Technology analysis: A-Si technology pros and cons

Category
Materials

Pros
1.Does not use

Cons
expensive 1. Low efficiency Exhibits efficiency

crystalline silicon only silicon 2.

32

alloys such as silane (SiH4)

degradation over time.

2. No feedstock limitation as 3. Requires multiple layers of silicon is one of the most common materials on Earth semiconductor material to

achieve higher efficiencies and

3. Multiple materials can be increased photo-stability. deposited to capture wider

spectrum of light. 4. Reliable output even at low light levels. Surface

1. Could use rigid or flexible substrates. 2. Glass and stainless

1. Generally does not use very thin substrates so the flexibility is

steel substrate based modules can be

limited. 2. Plastic-based modules have shorter lifetime.

warranted for 25 yrs. 3. Can be deposited as both superstrate and substrate on figurations
Manufacturing

1. Uses manufacturing processes that

proven

1. Manufacturing of highefficiency (triple-

have

junction) cells can be expensive. 2. Minimizing efficiency degradation manufacturing complexity. adds

evolved over the years. 2. Can be manufactured in countries with lowcost labor. 3. Supported by large manufacturing

companies with deep R&D pockets and

manufacturing

33

expertise.

CdTe pros and cons

Category
Materials

Pros
1. CdTe is an excellent PV material for

Cons
1. Uses cadmium (Cd) which, in elemental

converting sunlight to electricity.

form, poses a health risk.

34

2. Uses

very

little material

2. Uses

telluride

(Te)

Cadmium (one

which is a rare earth material cause that a could supply

8-square-foot

module contains (one 8-square-foot module

bottleneck. 3. Manufacturing facilities control exposure compound. 4. Modules need to be properly recycled at the end of their
lifetime to minimize environmental impact of CdTe

contains less cadmium than one size-C NiCd flashlight battery. 3. Research on CdTe as PV materials started in the early 1970s.

need

to

worker's to CdTe

Surface

1. Uses

glass

as

1. Can only use glass as a deposition surface. 2. If the glass breaks or cracks, the module can be rendered useless.

superstrate which is ideal for thin-film

deposition. 2. Lifetime of a glassbased module can

reach 20 years.
Manufacturing

1. largest thin-film PV manufacturing in 2008. 2. presence of strong

1. CdTe cannot

technology be on

manufactured

leader in the industry sub-segment Solar). 3. It's been shown that it could be produced (First

flexible substrates thus limiting the types of applications. 2. Manufacturing process must contain

35

efficiently volumes.

in

high

evaporative, water and solid wastes. 3. Can only be produced in batch process as opposed to roll-to-roll
process.

4. at $/Watt it is the lowest cost large scale manufacturing process at the moment.

CIS/CIGS pros and cons

Category
Materials

Pros
1. Highest efficiency at converting sunlight to electricity among thin films technologies) 2. CIGS robust compound and is

Cons
1. Uses element a rare-earth (Indium)

which could cause a supply bottleneck. 2. Uses trace amounts of cadmium (Cd), a rare

defect

36

tolerant. 3. Does not exhibit

degradation

and toxic material.

efficiency
over time. Surface

1. Could use rigid or flexible substrates. 2. Can be deposited on very thin plastic

1. Only configuration.

substrate

2. Flexible substrates are less durable.

substrates using low temperature processes. 3. Glass and stainless

steel substrate based modules can be

warranted for 20 years

Manufacturing

1. Uses

manufacturing 1. No large-scale manufacturing developed yet

Complex manufacturing process requires the deposition of many thin-film layers.

processes

and proven in other 2. industries. 2. Potential to have the lowest cost

manufacturing because of capability.

3.Potential to offer the lowest capital expenditure cost (in $/W)

roll-to-roll

37

COST ANALYSIS
In general, manufacturing cost is driven by two factors: innovation and production volume. The innovation effect can be broken down into product innovation followed by process innovation. Product innovation in thin-film PV technologies focuses on increasing the efficiency of the solar cell (i.e. the amount of power generated per meter square) using novel materials and solar knowhow. Process innovation tends to follow product innovation but only after a dominant design has already emerged. With the exception of emerging (3rd generation) thin-film PV technology

38

which is still in a product innovation phase, all other thin-film PV technologies have a dominant design (materials and surface) and have transitioned into the process innovation phase. This process innovation phase focuses on reducing the manufacturing costs (ie. the cost per meter square of producing a cell/module) using equipment scaling and process & yield control22. Published and estimated figures for manufacturing cost include raw material cost, labor costs, overhead and utilities and an annual capital recovery cost often estimated at around 14%. CdTe technology, a mature thin-film PV technology, has the lowest manufacturing cost, as demonstrated by industry leader First Solar which recently announced an average manufacturing cost of $1.40/W. Amorphous-Si technology is not far behind. Lowest manufacturing cost is estimated around $1.50/W, but a-Si still has plenty of room to reduce its cost through process innovation. A number of large equipment manufacturers such as Applied Materials, Moser Baer and Oerlikon have entered this market focusing on increasing manufacturing volume and reducing manufacturing cost by leveraging their proven technologies and processes from optical media and flat panel display industry. Because of its roll-to-roll capability, higher efficiency and the use of thin, lightweight and

flexible substrates, CIGS has the potential to have the lowest manufacturing cost of all thin-film technologies. Production volumes for CIGS are still very low and most manufacturers are not disclosing their manufacturing costs. New capital expenditure in thin-film PV (expressed in dollars per Watts) can be tracked using company press releases announcing new plant installations and the corresponding financial outlay. When estimating these figures, however, it is important to distinguish between the capital expenditures for large manufacturing plants (greater than 100 MW) and small manufacturing plants (anything less than 100 MW). Economies of scale make a large plant capital expenditure be significantly lower than the capital expenditures for smaller plants.

New capital expenditure data provided useful information in helping us estimate how quickly a technology can ramp up to large-scale manufacturing. For small plants, both a-Si and CIGS

39

technologies have comparable average capital expenditure costs, but for large plants, CIGS has a significant advantage. This is mainly due to the fact that CIGS tends to use a roll-to-roll manufacturing process that can produce large volumes at lower cost.

Expectations are that within 5 years, a-Si technology will overtake the CdTe technology as the most mature thin-film technology with the lowest cost manufacturing driven by large volume production and the entry of large players such Applied Materials and Oerlikon in this market. However, a-Si's reign as the leader in lowest manufacturing may not last long. In the next 5-10 years, CIGS technology could become the lowest cost manufacturing technology because of its lower manufacturing equipment cost and significantly lower ramp up costs due to roll-to-roll capability. Despite this, amorphous-Si will remain the dominant thin-film technology in the thinfilm industry. Its transition to roll-to-roll manufacturing coupled with continuous innovation and the simple fact that there is no feedstock limitation, could give a-Si the chance to become the dominant thin-film technology of the future.

Thin film technology

%of thin film market

Module cost

40

Amorphous Silicon(a-Si)

61

<$2

Cadmium telluride(CdTe)

34

$1.25

CIGS

<$2

DSC

~1

<$3

Source: Annual PV report 2008

Module manufacturing cost for various thin film technologies

MARKET ANALYSIS

41

The Photovoltaic world market grew in terms of production by more than 60% in 2010 to approximately 5 GW. The market for installed systems also grew more than 60% to reach 2,825 MW, as reported by various consultancies. One could guess that this represents mostly the grid connected Photovoltaic market. To what extent the off-grid and consumer product markets are included is unclear. The difference of roughly 1,200 MW could therefore be explained as a combination of unaccounted off-grid installations, consumer products and cells/modules in stock. Like in the last years, Germany was the largest single market with 1,100 MW, followed by Spain with 341 MW, Japan with 210 MW and the US with 205 MW. The Photovoltaic Energy Barometer reported that Europe had a cumulative installed PV system capacity of 6 GW in 2008. Despite the fact that the European PV production grew again by almost 60% and reached 1040 MW, the size of the German market and the rapid increase of the Spanish market to almost 341 MW did not change the role of Europe as a net importer of solar cells and/or modules. The ongoing capacity expansions might change this in the future. European customers generally secure their shipments through long-term supply contracts. At the end of 2007 total cumulative installed capacity in 2008 stands at 1.9 GW, almost 3 GW short of the original 4.8 GW goal for 2010.

The fourth largest market was the USA with 205 MW of PV installations, 152 MW grid connected. California and New Jersey account for almost 70% of the US grid connected PV market. Despite new Federal States emerging as markets in 2007, 90% of the total US market remains still in just five States. It is of interest to note, that the trend toward more non-residential installation continues, due to the more generous Federal Investment Tax incentives for commercial installations.

42

Source: Annual PV report 2010

Worldwide PV Production [GW] and planned production capacity

43

If all these ambitious plans can be realized, China will account for about 27% of the worldwide production capacity of 42.8 GW, followed by Europe with 23%, Japan with 17% and Taiwan with 14% . It has to be noted that the assessment of all the capacity increases is rather difficult, as it is affected by the following uncertainties. The announcements of the increase in production capacity in Europe, the US or China, often lack the information about completion date compared to Japan. Because of the Japanese mentality, where it is felt that a public announcement reflects a commitment, the moral pressure to meet a given time target is higher in Japan than elsewhere where delays are more acceptable. Not all companies announce their capacity increases in advance. Therefore, this report does not take into account increases which are not communicated. Announcements of completion of a capacity increase frequently refer to the installation of the equipment only. It does not mean that the production line is really fully operational. This means, especially with new technologies, that there can be some time delay between installation of the production line and real sales of solar cells. In addition, the production capacities are often announced, taking into account different operation models, e.g. maximum capacity (4 shifts 365 days/year), whereas others are only quoting capacity under real operation conditions. Production capacities are not equal to sales and therefore there is always a noticeable difference between the two figures, which cannot be avoided. Should the announced increases be realized, total production capacities in 2012 could then stand at 42.8 GW, of which 15 GW could be thin films.

44

Source: Solar buzz LLC

45

Competitors:
In the past years, Germany was the largest single market with 1,100 MW, followed by Spain with 341 MW, Japan with 210 MW and the US with 205 MW the Photovoltaic Energy Barometer reported that Europe had a cumulative installed PV system capacity of 4.7 GW in 2007. Despite the fact that the European PV production grew again by almost 60% and reached 1040 MW, the size of the German market and the rapid increase of the Spanish market to almost 341 MW did not change the role of Europe as a net importer of solar cells and/or modules. The ongoing capacity expansions might change this in the future. The Japanese market saw a further decline to 210 MW of new installations, 36% lower than in 2006. First, due to societal changes and economic conditions, the detached-house market in Japan, the major market for residential systems is experiencing a downward trend. Second, the strong demand for solar modules outside of Japan and the strong Euro make it more attractive for Japanese companies to export their products and vica versa make it less interesting for foreign companies to export to Japan. Third, in 2007 the silicon shortage led to a lower solar cell production at the Japanese market leader Sharp. This, and the fact that European customers generally secure their shipments through longterm supply contracts might have led to a shortage of solar modules in Japan. An indication for this theory is the fact that Sekisui Homes one of the leading manufacturers of detached homes in Japan who until recently was only installing Sharp solar systems is now also offering systems from other companies. The fourth largest market was the USA with 205 MW of PV installations. The major players in and around the world which are major competitors of Moserbaer are:

First Solar: First Solar was formed in 1999 and launched production of commercial
products in 2002. First Solar has achieved the lowest manufacturing cost per watt in the industry, $.98/watt for the fourth quarter of 2008, breaking the $1 per watt price barrier. It is the largest manufacturer of thin film solar modules, having expanded manufacturing capacity to an expected 735 MW in 2008; and with additional plants under construction, First Solar will bring total expected capacity to more than 1 GW by the end of 2009.

46

Sharp Corporation: Sharp started to develop solar cells in 1959 and succeeded in massproducing them in 1963. Since its products were mounted on "Ume", Japan's first commercialuse artificial satellite, in 1974, Sharp has been the only Japanese maker to produce silicon solar cells for use in space. Another milestone was achieved in 1980, with the release of electronic calculators equipped with single-crystal solar cells. Sharp aims to become a Zero Global Warming Impact Company by 2010 as the Worlds Top Manufacturer of Solar Cells.

Q-Cells: Q-Cells AG was founded at the end of 1999 and is based in Thalheim, SachsenAnhalt, Germany. Solar cell production started mid 2001 with a 12 MWp production line. In the 2008 2nd quarterly report, the company stated that the nominal capacity had increased to 630 MW by 30 June 2008 and should reach 800 MW in Thalheim/Germany and 520 MW in Malaysia by the end of 2009. 2007 production was 389 MW, moving to the first place worldwide.

Suntech: Suntech Power Co. Ltd. is located in Wuxi. It was founded in January 2001 by Dr.
Zhengrong Shi and went public in December 2005. Suntech specializes in the design, development, manufacturing and sale of Photovoltaic cells, modules and systems. In 2007 Suntech had a production of 327 MW and held 3rd place in the Top-10 list. The annual production capacity of Suntech Power was 660 MW at the end of the second quarter and is on track to increase to 1 GW by the end of 2008 and aims for 2 GW in 2010.

kyocera: In 2007, Kyocera had a production of 207 MW and is also marketing systems that
both generate electricity through solar cells and exploit heat from the sun for other purposes, such as heating water. The Sakura Factory, Chiba Prefecture, is involved in everything from R&D and system planning to construction and servicing and the Shiga factory, Shiga Prefecture, is active in R&D, as well as the manufacturing of solar cells, modules, equipment parts, and devices, which exploit heat. Like other Japanese manufacturers, Kyocera is planning to increase its current capacity of 240 MW to more than 500 MW by 2010.

Sanyo: Sanyo commenced R&D for a-Si solar cells in 1975. 1980 marked the beginning of
Sanyos a-Si solar cell mass productions for consumer applications. Amorphous Silicon modules for power use became available from SANYO in 1993 and in 1997 the mass production of HIT solar cells started. In 2007 Sanyo had a production of 165 MW solar cells. The latest expansion

47

plans foresee focus on the solar business and a rapid expansion from 260 MW in FY 2007 to 650 MW in 2010.

Sun power : SunPower was founded in 1988 by Richard Swanson and Robert Lorenzini to
commercialise proprietary high-efficiency silicon solar cell technology. The company went public in November 2005. SunPower designs and manufactures high-performance silicon solar cells, based on an interdigitated rear-contact design for commercial use. The initial products, introduced in 1992, were high-concentration solar cells with an efficiency of 26%. SunPower also manufactures a 22% efficient solar cell called Pegasus that is designed for nonconcentrating applications.According to the 2nd Quarter 2008 results, the company started site preparation for a 1 GW solar cell factory in Malaysia [Sun 2008a]. Production in 2007 was quoted with 150 MW.

48

Market benchmarking to carry out competitor analysis

1723 MW Annual PV report 2010 Source:

49

Graph 1: Top 10 Photovoltaic companies according to production in MW

The rapid expansion of solar cell manufacturing capacities and production volume in the Peoples Republic of China and Taiwan is not yet reflected in a significant size of the respective home markets. For 2008, the estimates of the Chinese and Taiwanese PV market are in the order of 10 to 20 MW each. As a result, more than 98% of the Chinese and Taiwanese PV production is exported. Another noteworthy development is the fact that the market share of the ten largest PV manufacturers together further decreased from 80% in 2004 to 57% in 2008. This development is explained by the fact that an increasing number of solar cell manufacturers are entering the market. The most rapid expansion of production capacities can be observed at the moment in China and Taiwan, but other countries like India, Malaysia and South Korea are following the example to attract investment in the solar sector.

50

Source: PV annual report 2010

PV Production Capacities (MW) 2006/7/8 and planned production capacity 2009/10/12

51

Source: First solar

However, one should bear in mind that out of the ca. 100 companies, which have announced their intention to increase their production capacity or start up production in the field of thin films, only one fourth have actually already produced thin film modules on a commercial scale. For 2010, roughly 10.5 GW of thin film production capacities are announced, an increase of almost 4 GW compared to the 2009 figures. Considering that at the end of year 2009 capacity could eventually be transformed into production, First Solar and Sharp together would contribute with about 1.5 to 2 GW, whereas the other existing producers would add about the same capacity. For that reason, 3.5 GW production in 2010 are considered as quite certain, another 1 GW as possible. Despite the fact that only limited comparisons between the different worlds regions are possible, the planned cell production capacities portray some very interesting developments. First, the technology as well as the company distribution, varies significantly from region to region. 40 companies are located in Europe, 27 in China, 19 in the US, 12 in Taiwan, 8 in Japan and 10 elsewhere. The majority of 82 companies is silicon based. The reason is probably that in the meantime there is a number of companies offering complete production lines for amorphous and/or micro morph silicon. 19 companies will use Cu(In,Ga)(Se,S)2 as absorber material for

52

their thin-film solar modules, whereas 7 companies will use CdTe and 5 companies go for Dye & other materials.

Source: Annual PV report 2010

53

Recommendations

54

Thin technology

film Grid residential

tied Grid

tied

Gris utility

tied Special applications

Off

grid

commercial

applications

Market segments
I have segmented the complete PV market as follows:

1. Grid-Tied Residential - small installations (less than 4kW) aimed at reducing the electricity usage in residential dwellings. This is typically a roof-mounted installation. 2. Grid-Tied Commercial - larger installations (up to 100s of kW) for commercial buildings. Like in the residential market, a typical installation is roof-mounted. 3. Grid-Tied Utility - large installations of solar farms (1 MW or larger) that provide electricity to power utilities. Solar panels are typically installed on the ground and require a large area. 4. Off-Grid Applications - typically small installations (up to 100W) used in remote settings to charge batteries and power small appliances. Small consumer products that incorporate solar power fall in this category. 5. Special Applications - this category includes miscellaneous applications ranging from powering space satellites to government & military applications and other custom, specialized applications.

Thin-film PV competes in all these market segments with not only traditional PV, but also other forms of renewable energy such as wind power. Some thin-film technologies are a better fit for some of the market segments listed above. we present the target markets for each technology as color coded chart with three levels: * Primary market - the market where the technology has a best fit * Secondary market - market where the technology could compete effectively * Tertiary market - market where the technology could compete in the future

55

a-Si

CdTe

CIGS

Emerging

Primary

secondary

Tertiary

We can make the following observations regarding the market segments for thin-film PV:

56

* All thin-film PV technologies are targeting the Grid-Tied Commercial market segment (one of the largest market segments), but the market is a strong focus for a-Si technology and emerging technologies such as DSC. * CdTe technology is well suited for Grid-Tied Utility market which is the focus for industry leader, First Solar. Grid-Tied Commercial market also has good potential for CdTe technology. A lack of flexible substrate options make it less suitable for Residential market, but CdTe makes up for this handicap by the fact that it competes well in one of the largest market segments, Grid-Tied Utility, which is projected to be a 30 GW market by 2015. * Amorphous-Si technology is found in many Off-Grid applications in developing world countries because of its low cost and low power. Grid-Tied Commercial applications in the form of Building-Integrated PV (BIPV) are also an ideal market for a-Si because space is not a constraint and therefore lower efficiency does not present a big handicap. * Today's CIGS technology shows preponderance for Special Applications (which includes Government, Military & Space applications) due to government grants and industry support from various Governments and because the technology can be customized to fit a multitude of form factors and shapes. In the future, CIGS will compete strongly in the Grid-Tied Residential market because its higher efficiency allows it to be adapted to applications where space is a legitimate constraint.

57

New Applications

Compared with traditional crystalline Si panels, thin-film PV panels generally have lower energy conversion efficiencies and thus require a larger area to generate the same amount of power. In applications where space is not a constraint, thin-film PV panels can be more economical than traditional PV panels because of their lower cost. Solar energy farms and roof-top installations (Grid-Tied Commercial and Utility) are therefore ideal markets for thin-film PV panels. Within the commercial market segment, a new field of applications called Building Integrated Photovoltaic (BIPV) is starting to emerge as an ideal application for thin-film PV. BIPV applications aim to design and integrate PV panels into the building architecture by replacing conventional building materials with PV panels that could serve as vertical facades, roofing material, semi-transparent skylight systems or awnings. Because thin-film PV panels are less expensive and more aesthetically pleasing, they are better suited for BIPV applications than their crystalline Si counterparts. In addition, because thin-film PV can be deposited on flexible, but durable substrates, it could be used as roofing material in residential applications with the dual purpose of protecting the residence from the elements while generating power at the same time. For these reasons, BIPV is an exciting new field of applications for thin-film PV solar panels and will stimulate a growth rate estimated as much as 60% through 2010. Thin-film PV ability to be deposited on flexibility substrates is the other important feature that enables a new set of applications which were not possible before with crystalline Si technology. Besides the fact that they could be produced in high volumes and at low cost, flexible PV cells can be integrated into a variety of consumer products such as portable electronics or power generating fabrics for structures such as tents, awnings and roofs. The roll-to-roll manufacturing process of flexible cells allows manufacturers to customize the size of the solar cell to fit a range of applications from the small consumer electronics to the large panels used in building materials.

58

Market Strategies
Analyzing the market segments from a technology strategy point of view, we can see that each thin-film technology has advantages in different market segments. There isn't much overlap between market segments and therefore we see little competition between the different thin-film PV technologies, at the moment. This situation may not remain the same for too long. Emerging technologies like DSC could be disruptive for a-Si because they not only target the same market segments, but could offer similar performance at lower cost. As the production volumes for CIGS technology ramp up, it could start competing with a-Si in the Grid-Tied Commercial market, although a better strategy may be to take on the Off-Grid Applications market where CIGS has a better chance to compete with traditional PV technology. Although the market picture suggests that, at the moment, there is little competition among the thin-film PV technologies, as they mature, they'll start competing with each other at some level. More importantly, we should analyze the potential for thin-film PV to displace the traditional PV technology in the market. Currently, thin-film PV technologies simply expand the existing market. Whether it's through applications such as solar farms (which are relatively new), or developing world applications or BIPV, thin-film PV technology has so far served to expand the overall adoption of solar PV. What will happen when thin-film PV will become a substitute for traditional PV? CIGS has the potential to displace traditional PV in the Residential market because it will offer lower cost alternative at nearly the same conversion efficiency, but will bring a new value proposition through its lightweight and flexibility characteristics. Likewise, amorphous Si can expand beyond BIPV and begin to capture market share from traditional PV in the Commercial market.

Opportunities in TF PV Market:

59

Current Large projects and utilities Most installations use traditional PV because of high efficiency. But some using CdTe

Future Opportunities CIGS and a-Si are likely to see more applications as efficiencies rise. Organic and hybrid technologies do not seem likely to penetrate this sector both because of efficiency issues and stability issues

Commercial and industrial building applications

Some use of CdTe and aSi, especially in Germany and Japan

All of the TF PV technologies have some applications here. This includes novel organic materials which may be

integrated with wall, roofing and window materials to maximize the use of real estate/surfaces Residential building applications Some use of CdTe and possibly CIGS Major opportunity for TF PV, because its light weight makes it highly suitable The for ability self to

installation.

integrated with other materials is also an advantage. Rural areas in developing especially solution. Consumer electronics a-Si is widely used in calculators and in other small consumer electronics items, while CdTe has been used in the past This seems to be the area that some TF manufacturers using organic materials are aiming at in the belief that their low nations attracted may to be this

efficiencies would not matter so much. Some manufacturers

believe that there is really no

60

market here, beyond some niche solar battery charger sales Military and Emergency Use PV including TF PV to service remote locations and on the battlefield The military continues to be an active funder of TF PV

technology and is looking at novel applications, such as solar powered battlefield dress. Not necessarily a big market, but tends towards the leading edge.

61

Bibliography

Books: 1. Hamakawa, Y. (Ed.), "Thin-Film Solar Cells - Next Generation Photovoltaics and Its Applications", page 17-31

62

2. Bradford, Travis and Maycock, Paul, "PV Technology Performance and Cost", page 224-228 3. Christensen, Clay, "The Innovator's Dilemma", pages 12-54 Magazine & Journals/ Newspaper:

1. Bucklin L. and Sengupta S. (1993), Organizing Successful co-marketing alliances, Journal of Marketing, Volume 54, 37-55. 2. "Bright Prospects", The Economist, March 10th- 16th 2007 issue, page 22 3. Graetzel, Michael, presentation at MIT, March 23, 2007 4. Gellings, Ralf et al., "Only united are we strong", Photon International, July 2006 issue, pp. 80-89 5. Applied Materials, Press Release, June 2007 6. ATS (Automation Tooling Systems) Automation, Annual Report 2008 7. BP Solar, Press Release, 16 July 2007 8. Von Roedern, Bolko, "PV Specsheet Rating", February 2007 9. " Macor, Michael, San Francisco Chronicle

Internet: 1. http://www .eere.energy.gov, Accessed May 3, 2009 2. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Semiconductor, Accessed May 3, 2009 3. www.californiasolarcenter.org, Accessed May 3, 2009 4. http://www.powerfilmsolar.com/technology/index.htm, Accessed May 15, 2009 5. http://www.nrel.gov/pv/cdte/, Accessed May 19, 2009 6. http://www.sfgate.com/cgibin/ object/article?f=/c/a/2007/03/04/MNG2EOF85M1 .DTL&o=4, Accessed May 24, 2009 7. http://firstsolar.com/environment cdte.php, Accessed May 28, 2009 8. http://www.nrel.gov/pv/cdte/cadmium facts.html, Accessed May 30, 2009 9. http://www.nrel.gov/pv/thin film/docs/kaz best research cells.ppt, Accessed June 3, 2009 10. www.globalsolar.com/technology.htm, Accessed June 7, 2009

63

11.

www.renewableenergyaccess.com/rea/news/reinsider/story;jsessionid=CC52AA008F8B45

11820D723933B 1C970?id=47178, Accessed June 13, 2009 12.www.renewableenergyaccess.com/rea/news/reinsider/story;jsessionid=CC52AA008F8B4511 820D723933B 1 C970?id=47178, Accessed June 14, 2009 13. http://www.appliedmaterials.com/news/pr2007.html?menuID=6, Accessed June 15, 2009

64

Appendix/ Annexure

65

Questionnaire for studying pre sales consumer behavior

66

Database collection for tapping the fortune 500 companies

67

68