Argus US Products

Issue 24-157 | Friday 16 August 2024

OVERVIEW MARKET SUMMARY

„ September Nymex WTI fell by $1.51/bl to $76.65/bl, capping Price ¢/USG

a volatile week that left WTI down by only 19¢/bl from the New York Houston Chicago Los Angeles
previous Friday. Nymex RBOB fell by 4.78¢/USG to $2.3102/
USG today while ultra-low sulphur diesel fell by 4.92¢/USG to CBOB/suboctane 230.020 214.395 206.770 215.020
RBOB 234.145 223.895 229.020 236.020
$2.3287/USG.
87 conv 233.770 227.395
Ethanol 191.250 193.050 180.550 213.250
„ US refining margins narrowed in most regions this week
Jet fuel 223.870 219.920 235.370 234.870
as rising crude values outpaced generally higher motor fuel ULSD 228.120 224.645 234.120 228.660
prices. Bunker fuel $/t 530.000 452.500 537.500

Differential to Nymex ¢/USG

„ US Gulf coast gasoline prices mostly declined on lackluster
demand and losses in the September Nymex lowered cash New York Houston Chicago Los Angeles
prices further. US Atlantic coast RBOB prices hit a four-month
CBOB/suboctane -1.000 -16.625 -24.250 -16.000
low as declining futures accompanied weaker demand.
RBOB +3.125 -7.125 -2.000 +5.000
87 conv +2.750 -3.625
„ US Gulf coast diesel and jet fuel prices were the lowest Jet fuel -9.000 -12.950 +2.500 +2.000
in a week as multi-week high cash differentials were offset ULSD -4.750 -8.225 +1.250 -6.000
by losses in the underlying basis. US Atlantic coast distillate Bunker fuel $/t +7.257 -5.012 +8.445
cash prices were also lower as differential increases failed to
Change on day ¢/USG
overcome Nymex losses.
New York Houston Chicago Los Angeles

„ An oil refining trade group is asking a federal court to force

CBOB/suboctane -5.905 -5.030 -4.780 -4.780
the US Environmental Protection Agency to ease cellulosic
RBOB -5.905 -5.280 -4.780 -6.280
biofuel blending obligations. 87 conv -3.030 -3.780
Ethanol +0.625 +0.275 +0.275 nc
„ US west coast jet fuel imports slipped by 18pc this week as Jet fuel -3.920 -4.920 -4.920 -3.920
arrivals averaged 145,000 b/d across three vessels from South ULSD -4.795 -4.370 -4.670
Korea, all of which arrived to Alaska. Bunker fuel $/t -9.000 +11.000 -9.000

CME Nymex futures ¢/USG

Month RBOB ULSD

Contents
Sep 231.02 232.87
Gasoline 3
Oct 213.99 234.66
Distillates 7
Nov 209.67 235.95
Biofuels and blending components 12
Dec 206.80 236.68
Feedstocks and residual fuel oil 18
Jan 205.79 237.31
Latest news 21
Announcements 28 Feb 206.26 237.02
*Tables include hyperlinks to those values maintained in the Argus database.

Copyright © 2024 Argus Media group Available on the Argus Publications App
Licensed to: Jose Maria Loperena, Energas de Mexico S.A de C.V.
 Argus US Products Issue 24-157 | Friday 16 August 2024

ARGUS MARKET MAP ¢/USG

Portland
NYH less Chicago
Portland less SF CBOB +14.250
RBOB -28.000 ULSD -6.000
ULSD +15.500 Chicago New York

Chicago less Group 3

CBOB -14.250
Chicago less USGC
SF less LA ULSD +3.875
San Francisco CBOB -7.625 Colonial Line Space
RBOB +8.000
ULSD +9.475 Gasoline Line 01 -1.75
ULSD -12.790
Tulsa Distillates Line 02 -0.75
Los Angeles
Group 3 less USGC
NYH less USGC
CBOB +6.625
LA less USGC CBOB +6.625
ULSD +5.600
RBOB +12.125 ULSD +3.475
ULSD +3.015
Houston

LATEST NEWS PAGE 21 Chicago jet fuel cash ¢/USG

290
Infrastructure
280
„ Toxic US-Canada rail paused ahead of strike
270

Industry 260

„ NY Harbor RBOB prices hit 4-month low 250

„ US Atlantic gasoline stocks at 2-month high 240 hh
„ US cracks: Crude price gains shrink margins 230
„ Newsom seeks minimum Calif refiner stocks 220
„ USWC jet imports to steady after weekly dip 210
„ USDA to expand biofuel projects funding
200
„ AFPM asks court to ease US cellulosic mandate 15 May 14 Jun 18 Jul 16 Aug
„ Oregon sees growing LCFS credit bank ahead

Colonial 83.7 Rbob vs LA 84 Carbob ¢/USG Chicago ULSD cash ¢/USG

40 270
260
30
250
20
240
10
230
0
hh 220 hh
-10 210
-20 200
-30 190

-40 180
15 May 14 Jun 18 Jul 16 Aug 15 May 14 Jun 18 Jul 16 Aug
.

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Issue Ref: 396626

Argus US Products Issue 24-157 | Friday 16 August 2024

GASOLINE

Atlantic coast Atlantic coast ¢/USG

Basis Differential Price ±
US Atlantic coast RBOB prices hit a four-month low on Friday
New York waterborne
as declining futures accompanied weaker demand.
87 conv inc duty 9.0 Sep +2.50/+3.00 233.52-234.02 -3.03
Prompt RBOB prices fell by 5.91¢/USG to $2.34/USG, the 87 conv ex duty 9.0 Sep -7.58/-7.08 223.44-223.94 -2.94
lowest since 28 March and 7.1¢/USG below the rest of this Reg CBOB inc duty 7.8 Sep +2.25/+2.75 233.27-233.77 -5.91
Reg CBOB ex duty 7.8 Sep -7.83/-7.33 223.19-223.69 -5.82
month. Cash differentials dropped by 1.13¢/USG to a two-week
Reg RBOB inc duty 7.4 Sep +6.50/+6.75 237.52-237.77 -5.91
low at September Nymex +3¢/USG to +3.25¢/USG as prompt Reg RBOB ex duty 7.4 Sep -3.58/-3.33 227.44-227.69 -5.81
bidding interest waned. Buckeyes and barges were even. The 89 conv inc duty 9.0 245.25-245.75 -3.03
Prem RBOB inc duty 7.4 Sep +28.88/+29.13 259.90-260.15 -5.27
forward curve was backward by 2.75¢/USG from the dead 93 conv inc duty 9.0 Sep +36.00/+36.50 267.02-267.52 -3.03
prompt through the end of August. Boston waterborne
Colonial offline RBOB differentials fell by 0.28¢/USG to Sep- Reg RBOB 7.4 Sep +6.38/+6.88 237.40-237.90 -5.90
Colonial Linden
tember Nymex +3.85¢/USG as the prompt rolled to cycle 43. 87 conv M Cycle 44 9.0 Sep +2.50/+3.00 233.52-234.02 -3.03
Prompt Buckeye 9.0 RVP CBOB traded at September Nymex 89 conv Cycle 44 9.0 245.25-245.75 -3.03
93 conv V Cycle 44 9.0 Sep +36.00/+36.50 267.02-267.52 -3.03
-10¢/USG, 1¢/USG under last session. Prompt Colonial offline
Reg CBOB Cycle 44 9.0 Sep -10.25/-9.75 220.77-221.27 -5.78
cycle 44 CBOB was assessed flat to cycles 45 and 46 at Sep- Reg RBOB Cycle 43 7.4 Sep +3.60/+4.10 234.62-235.12 -5.06
tember Nymex -10¢/USG. New York barge
Reg CBOB dead prompt 7.8 Sep -1.25/-0.75 229.77-230.27 -5.91
Premium RBOB was assessed 0.5¢/USG lower at September Reg CBOB prompt 7.8 Sep -1.25/-0.75 229.77-230.27 -5.91
Nymex +25¢/USG to +26¢/USG, partially tracking the declines Reg CBOB dead prompt 9.0 Sep -10.25/-9.75 220.77-221.27 -5.78
in regular RBOB. Reg CBOB prompt 9.0 Sep -10.25/-9.75 220.77-221.27 -5.78
Reg RBOB dead prompt 7.4 Sep +3.50/+4.00 234.52-235.02 -6.03
Colonial line space was negative at -1.75¢/USG as the US Reg RBOB prompt 7.4 Sep +3.00/+3.25 234.02-234.27 -5.91
Gulf coast/New York Harbor gasoline arbitrage remained nar- Prem CBOB dead prompt 7.8 Sep +24.00/+24.50 255.02-255.52 -5.28
Prem CBOB prompt 7.8 Sep +24.00/+24.50 255.02-255.52 -5.28
row.
Prem CBOB dead prompt 9.0 Sep +19.00/+20.00 250.02-251.02 -5.28
Refining margins decreased by 37¢/bl to $15.9/bl as the Prem CBOB prompt 9.0 Sep +19.00/+20.00 250.02-251.02 -5.28
drop in RBOB and ULSD outweighed losses in North Sea Dated Prem RBOB dead prompt 7.4 Sep +25.00/+26.00 256.02-257.02 -5.28
Prem RBOB prompt 7.4 Sep +25.00/+26.00 256.02-257.02 -5.28
crude.
Buckeye
Reg CBOB dead prompt 7.8 Sep -1.25/-0.75 229.77-230.27 -5.91
Gulf coast Reg CBOB prompt 7.8 Sep -1.25/-0.75 229.77-230.27 -5.91
Reg CBOB dead prompt 9.0 Sep -10.25/-9.75 220.77-221.27 -5.78
The price of gasoline along the US Gulf coast mostly declined Reg CBOB prompt 9.0 Sep -10.25/-9.75 220.77-221.27 -5.78
on lackluster demand as losses in the September Nymex low- Reg RBOB dead prompt 7.4 Sep +3.50/+4.00 234.52-235.02 -6.03
ered cash prices further. Reg RBOB prompt 7.4 Sep +3.00/+3.25 234.02-234.27 -5.91
Prem CBOB dead prompt 7.8 Sep +24.00/+24.50 255.02-255.52 -5.28
Cash prices for 87 finished conventional gasoline lost 3.8¢/ Prem CBOB prompt 7.8 Sep +24.00/+24.50 255.02-255.52 -5.28
USG on the day after cash differentials offset falling Nymex Prem CBOB dead prompt 9.0 Sep +19.00/+20.00 250.02-251.02 -5.28
Prem CBOB prompt 9.0 Sep +19.00/+20.00 250.02-251.02 -5.28
values by 1¢/USG. A deal was completed at September Nymex
Prem RBOB dead prompt 7.4 Sep +25.00/+26.00 256.02-257.02 -5.28
-3.5¢/USG, widening M2’s premium over regular CBOB to 13¢/ Prem RBOB prompt 7.4 Sep +25.00/+26.00 256.02-257.02 -5.28
USG. Week-over-week cash prices have lost nearly 12.4¢/USG. Laurel
Reg CBOB 9.0 Sep -9.25/-8.75 221.77-222.27 -5.78
Deals for 9.0 RVP regular CBOB (A2) were struck at Sep- Prem CBOB 9.0 Sep +19.00/+20.00 250.02-251.02 -5.28
tember Nymex -16.5¢/USG and 16.75¢/USG, narrowing the
assessed midpoint by 0.25¢/USG from the previous session.
CME Nymex RBOB
Prompt roll trades were dealt +0.85¢/USG backwards to the
Price Crack spread
current cycle maintaining a backwardated forward curve.
Month ¢/USG ± Month $/bl
Trades for 7.4 RVP regular RBOB (F1) fetched discounts be-
tween September Nymex -6.5¢/USG and -7.25¢/USG, while an Sep 231.02 -4.78 Sep +20.38

F1/A2 regrade was traded at 9.5¢/USG. Regional cash differen- Oct 213.99 -4.60 Oct +14.34
Nov 209.67 -4.14 Nov +13.39
tials closed 0.5¢/USG lower, depressing outright cash prices by

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Argus US Products Issue 24-157 | Friday 16 August 2024

GASOLINE

5.3¢/USG. Gulf coast ¢/USG

Basis Differential Price ±
Line space valuations rose by 0.5¢/USG after a trade was
Colonial
heard done at -1.75¢/USG.
87 conv M 9.0 Cycle 48 Sep -3.75/-3.50 227.27-227.52 -3.78
Weighted average -3.63 227.39
Midcontinent 87 conv M 9.0 Cycle 49 Oct +12.43/+12.68 226.42-226.67 -3.63
Reg RBOB F 7.4 Cycle 48 Sep -7.75/-6.50 223.27-224.52 -5.28
The arbitrage for shipping CBOB to Group Three from the US Weighted average -6.95 224.07
Gulf coast closed for the first time since 1 August on Friday Reg RBOB F 7.4 Cycle 49 Oct +8.43/+9.68 222.42-223.67 +8.08
following decreases in midcontinent gasoline prices. Reg CBOB A 9.0 Cycle 48 Sep -16.75/-16.50 214.27-214.52 -5.03
Weighted average -16.61 214.41
Group Three V grade suboctane gasoline notched a 6.63¢/ Reg CBOB A 9.0 Cycle 49 Oct -0.57/-0.32 213.42-213.67 -4.88
USG premium to US Gulf coast product, 0.51¢/USG below 89 conv 9.0 239.00-239.25 -3.78
Prem CBOB D 9.0 Cycle 48 Sep +4.25/+4.50 235.27-235.52 -5.03
shipping costs between the two regions. Arbitrage opportu- 93 conv V 9.0 Cycle 48 Sep +29.75/+30.00 260.77-261.02 -3.78
nity between the two regions had been open for the previous 93 conv V 9.0 Cycle 49 Oct +45.93/+46.18 259.92-260.17 -3.63
ten-sessions. Prem RBOB 7.4 Cycle 48 Sep +17.00/+18.25 248.02-249.27 -5.28
Prem RBOB 7.4 Cycle 49 Oct +33.18/+34.43 247.17-248.42 -5.13
Group Three V grade traded 10¢/USG below the Septem- Colonial Line Space
ber RBOB Nymex, decreasing cash differentials by 1¢/USG Gasoline Line 01 Cycle 48 -2.75/-0.75 +0.50
Weighted average -1.75
from the previous session. V grade prices fell by 5.78¢/USG to
Waterborne*
$2.21/USG on combined losses in cash differentials and Nymex Reg CBOB A 9.0 Sep -15.00/-14.75 216.02-216.27 -5.03
futures. 87 conv M 9.0 Sep -2.00/-1.75 229.02-229.27 -3.78
89 conv 9.0 240.75-241.00 -3.78
Chicago gasoline prices were largely unchanged on the day Prem CBOB 9.0 Sep +6.00/+6.25 237.02-237.27 -5.03
amid wide bid and offer ranges. 93 conv V 9.0 Sep +31.50/+31.75 262.52-262.77 -3.78
Waterborne ex-RVO*
Buckeye Complex CBOB was bid and offered between 22¢/
Reg CBOB A 9.0 Sep -23.34/-23.09 207.68-207.93 -4.94
USG and 17¢/USG below the Nymex, leaving cash differentials 87 conv M 9.0 Sep -10.34/-10.09 220.68-220.93 -3.69
unchanged at a 18.25¢/USG discount to the futures contract. 89 conv 9.0 232.41-232.66 -3.69
93 conv V 9.0 Sep +23.16/+23.41 254.18-254.43 -3.69
Prices at the location fell by 4.78¢/USG to $2.17/USG from the Texas
previous session. Reg Texas CBOB 6.6 222.19 -5.23
Prem Texas CBOB 6.6 246.26 -5.24
Wolverine pipeline CBOB changed hands 18.50¢/USG below
Reg Texas RBOB 7.4 223.895 -5.280
the Nymex, easing cash differentials 0.25¢/USG lower. Follow- Prem Texas RBOB 7.4 248.645 -5.280
ing the trade, bids and offers split into a range of 17¢/USG to *"at cost" prices - see www.argusmedia.com/methodology for more information

23¢/USG under the Nymex but there were no further transac-

tions.
Colonial Cbob A cash ¢/USG
West coast
245
A sharp downturn in the prompt Nymex RBOB contract
weighed on gasoline prices across the US west coast, while 240

differentials were mixed in thin liquidity following elevated 235

California supply indicators the day prior. 230
Regular August CARBOB in Los Angeles traded 5.00¢/USG
225
above the September Nymex, 1.50¢/USG below last heard hh
trade. The dip added to pressure from a 4.78¢/USG loss in 220

Friday’s Nymex settlement, and cash prices fell by 6.28¢/USG 215

to $2.36/USG. Southern California’s premium CARBOB slid to 210
$2.49/USG as result.
205
No other trade was confirmed in Los Angeles, though, as 15 May 14 Jun 18 Jul 16 Aug
participants withdrew to end the week.

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Argus US Products Issue 24-157 | Friday 16 August 2024

GASOLINE

fob USGC cargo ¢/USG Midcontinent ¢/USG

Basis Differential Price ± Basis Differential Price ±
¢/USG $/m³ ¢/USG ¢/USG
Group 3
Suboctane V 9.0 prompt Sep -10.25/-9.75 220.77-221.27 -5.78
87 Conv M Colonial +1.50/+2.00 601.73-603.05 227.78-228.28 -3.15
Weighted average -10.00 221.02
Colonial Pipeline 87 Conv M Weighted Average Strip 226.28 Suboctane V 9.0 any Aug Sep -16.25/-15.75 214.77-215.27 -5.78
91 conv A 9.0 prompt Sep +10.25/+10.75 241.27-241.77 -5.78
Reg RBOB 7.4 prompt Sep 230.52 -6.03
Delivered Florida ¢/USG
West Shore/Badger
Basis Differential Price ±
Reg CBOB 9.0 3rd Aug Sep -24.50/-24.00 206.52-207.02 -4.78
Port Everglades, Florida Reg CBOB 9.0 1st Sep Oct -0.25/+0.25 213.74-214.24 -4.60
Reg CBOB A 10.5 USGC +10.50/+11.50 223.78-224.78 -4.26 89 conv 9.0 250.01-250.51 -4.78
Prem CBOB D 10.5 USGC +11.50/+12.50 245.78-246.78 -4.26 91 conv 9.0 3rd Aug Sep +99.75/+100.25 330.77-331.27 -4.78
Tampa, Florida 91 conv 9.0 1st Sep Oct +116.78/+117.28 330.77-331.27 -4.78
Reg CBOB A 10.5 USGC +10.50/+11.50 223.78-224.78 -4.26 Reg RBOB 7.4 3rd Aug Sep -2.25/-1.75 228.77-229.27 -4.78
Prem CBOB D 10.5 USGC +11.50/+12.50 245.78-246.78 -4.26 Reg RBOB 7.4 1st Sep Oct +1.75/+2.25 215.74-216.24 -4.60
Prem RBOB 7.4 3rd Aug Sep +124.75/+125.25 355.77-356.27 -4.78
Colonial Pipeline Weighted Average Strip
Chicago BCX
Reg CBOB 213.28 -4.26
Reg CBOB 9.0 3rd Aug Sep -18.50/-18.00 212.52-213.02 -4.78
Prem CBOB 234.28 -4.26
Reg CBOB 9.0 1st Sep Oct -0.25/+0.25 213.74-214.24 -4.60
91 conv 9.0 3rd Aug Sep +99.75/+100.25 330.77-331.27 -4.78
Delivered South America $/m³
Reg RBOB 7.4 3rd Aug Sep -2.25/-1.75 228.77-229.27 -4.78
Origin Price ± Prem RBOB 7.4 3rd Aug Sep +124.75/+125.25 355.77-356.27 -4.78
Chicago Wolverine
Montevideo, Uruguay
Reg CBOB 9.0 3rd Aug Sep -18.75/-18.25 212.27-212.77 -5.03
87 conv ex-RVO USGC 617.59 -8.03
91 conv 9.0 3rd Aug Sep +99.75/+100.25 330.77-331.27 -4.78
Eurobob Oxy ARA 611.68 -6.11
Detroit
Buenos Aires, Argentina
Reg CBOB 7.0 226.05 -4.83
87 conv ex-RVO USGC 620.48 -8.11
Prem CBOB 7.0 344.55 -4.58
Eurobob Oxy ARA 614.12 -6.18
Pozos, Colombia
West coast ¢/USG
87 conv USGC 616.99 -6.76
Basis Differential Price ±
Barranquilla, Colombia
87 conv USGC 615.19 -6.85 Los Angeles
Reg CARBOB 5.99 Aug Sep +4.75/+5.25 235.77-236.27 -6.28
Cartagena, Colombia
Weighted average +5.00 236.02
87 conv USGC 615.16 -6.89 Reg CARBOB 5.99 Sep Oct +24.00/+27.00 237.99-240.99 -4.60
Callao, Peru Prem CARBOB 5.99 Aug CARBOB +10.00/+15.00 246.02-251.02 -6.28
87 conv ex-RVO USGC 665.27 -6.04 Suboctane 9.0 Aug Sep -20.00/-12.00 211.02-219.02 -4.78
Reg AZRBOB 5.7 Aug CARBOB +13.00/+16.00 249.02-252.02 -6.28
Arica, Chile
Prem AZRBOB 5.7 Aug CARBOB +25.50/+28.50 261.52-264.52 -6.28
87 conv USGC 887.82 -7.45 San Francisco
Paraguay Reg CARBOB 5.99 Aug Sep +12.75/+13.25 243.77-244.27 -3.78
87 conv USGC 876.87 -11.40 Prem CARBOB 5.99 Aug CARBOB +16.00/+18.00 260.02-262.02 -3.78
San Francisco waterborne
Reg CARBOB 6.0 Aug Sep +14.25/+14.75 245.27-245.77 -3.78
Regular AZRBOB gasoline mirrored the decline in CARBOB Reg CARBOB ex-RVO 6.0
Sep +5.91/+6.41 236.93-237.43 -3.69
Aug
prices and settled at $2.51/USG, while sub-octane gasoline Portland
slipped in tandem with the Nymex to $2.15/USG. Suboctane 7.8 Aug Sep -15.25/-14.75 215.77-216.27 -7.78

Prompt regular San Francisco CARBOB traded a nominal

penny higher day to day at 13.00¢/USG over the September Portland sub-octane gasoline traded lower at 15.00¢/USG
Nymex, but the uptick merely blunted pressure from the under the September Nymex, erasing slight gains in mid-week
depreciating basis. Cash prices shed 3.78¢/USG to $2.44/USG, trade and contributing to a 7.78¢/USG loss in cash prices to
while premium CARBOB slipped to $2.61/USG. $2.16/USG.

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Argus US Products Issue 24-157 | Friday 16 August 2024

GASOLINE
Argus Gasoline Temperature Correction Factors (TCFs) Gulf coast deals
Grade Timing Price Volume

Colonial A2 cycle 48 -16.75 25

cycle 48 -16.75 25
Boston
St Paul cycle 48 -16.75 50
Buffalo
99.244% cycle 48 -16.50 25
99.399% 99.334%
Detroit cycle 48 -16.50 25
99.223% Linden cycle 48 -16.50 25
98.935% cycle 48 -16.50 25
Philadelphia cycle 48 -16.50 25
Hammond
cycle 48 cycle 49 +0.85 25
99.287% 98.866%
cycle 48 cycle 49 +0.85 25
cycle 48 cycle 49 +0.85 50
cycle 54 cycle 60 +5.00 50
cycle 54 cycle 60 +5.00 100
TCFs shown are for a specific terminal in that city. See TCF Methodology for
cycle 54 cycle 60 +5.25 100
details. For a given amount of fuel, the Argus TCF is the volume at 60° F
divided by the volume at the real in-tank temperature. See all TCFs. Colonial F1 cycle 48 -7.25 25
cycle 48 -7.25 25
cycle 48 -7.00 25
Spot crack spreads $/bl
cycle 48 -6.75 25
Region Basis Yield Spread ± cycle 48 -6.50 25
USAC Brent 3-2-1 15.90 -0.37 cycle 48 A2 +9.50 25
Colonial M2 cycle 48 -3.50 25
USGC sweet WTI Houston 3-2-1 17.24 -0.31
USGC sour Mars 3-2-1 20.23 -0.39
Chicago WCS 6-3-2-1 27.21 +1.72 Atlantic coast deals
Group Three WTI Cushing 3-2-1 17.47 -0.85 Grade Timing Price Volume
USWC ANS 5-3-1-1 15.37 -0.82
reg CBOB A CPL (9.00) cycle 45 Sep -10.00 25
cycle 45 Sep -10.00 25
cycle 46 Sep -10.00 25
Assessment rationale cycle 46 Sep -10.00 25
Chicago's West Shore/Badger CBOB remained unchanged on the reg CBOB Buckeye (9.00) prompt Sep -10.00 25
reg CBOB NYH barge (7.80) 21-22 Aug Sep -1.00 25
day amid a lack of cohesive bids, offers or trades.
reg RBOB B/B (7.40) 20 Aug Sep +3.00 50
The US Gulf coast regular CBOB market met the volume mini- reg RBOB Buckeye (7.40) 24 Aug Sep +3.25 25
mums needed to calculate the VWA in accordance with the 25 Aug Sep +3.25 25
methodology. 27 Aug Sep +3.25 12

The US Gulf coast regular RBOB F market was assessed based

on a regrade trade versus 9.0 RVP regular CBOB grade done at Midcontinent deals
Grade Timing Price Volume
9.5¢/USG. Outright trade for F was done within this range.
reg CBOB Wolverine (9.00) C3 Aug Sep -18.50 10
suboctane V MPL Group 3 (9.00) prompt Sep -10.00 15

West coast deals

Grade Timing Price Volume

reg CARBOB LA (5.99) Aug Sep +5.00 25

reg CARBOB SF (5.99) Aug Sep +13.00 25
suboctane Portland (7.80) prompt Sep -15.00 10

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Argus US Products Issue 24-157 | Friday 16 August 2024

DISTILLATES

Atlantic coast Atlantic coast ¢/USG

Basis Differential Price ±
US Atlantic coast distillate cash prices were lower Friday as
New York waterborne
differential increases failed to overcome Nymex losses.
Heating oil Sep -16.17/-15.17 216.70-217.70 -4.15
Colonial 62-grade ultra-low sulphur diesel (ULSD) prompt ULSD Sep -5.00/-4.50 227.87-228.37 -4.80
cash prices dropped by 4.4¢/USG to $2.29/USG. Colonial Jet Sep -9.50/-8.50 223.37-224.37 -3.92
Kerosine Sep -9.00/-8.00 223.87-224.87 -3.92
ULSD on formerly prompt cycle 43 traded at -4.5¢/USG below ULSK Sep +20.35/+30.35 253.22-263.22 -4.92
September Nymex, 0.25¢/USG higher than its differential value Boston waterborne
entering the day. Forward ULSD Colonial cycles remained in ULSHO Sep -8.38/-7.88 224.49-224.99 -4.92
New York barge
contango according to market participants, though liquidity Heating oil prompt Sep -16.17/-15.17 216.70-217.70 -4.15
was lighter on Friday. Heating oil any Aug Sep -21.67/-20.67 211.20-212.20 -2.65
ULSHO Sep -12.50/-12.25 220.37-220.62 -4.92
Prompt Buckeye and barge ULSD decreased by 4.8¢/USG to ULSD prompt Sep -5.00/-4.50 227.87-228.37 -4.80
$2.28¢/USG. Prompt Buckeye ULSD traded at 4.75¢/USG below ULSD any Aug Sep -4.50/-4.00 228.37-228.87 -4.92
the Nymex basis after holding at Nymex -4.88¢/USG the previ- Jet Sep -9.25/-8.75 223.62-224.12 -3.92
Kerosine Sep -8.75/-8.25 224.12-224.62 -3.92
ous six trading sessions, as buyers showed renewed interest in ULSK Sep +20.35/+30.35 253.22-263.22 -4.92
acquiring prompt supply. Buckeye
ULSHO Sep -12.50/-12.25 220.37-220.62 -4.92
Ultra-low sulphur heating oil (ULSH) markets were quiet
ULSD Sep -5.00/-4.50 227.87-228.37 -4.80
Friday. Colonial, Buckeye, and barge ULSH cash prices dropped Jet Sep -9.25/-8.75 223.62-224.12 -3.92
4.9¢/USG to $2.21/USG, tracing Nymex basis losses on the day. Kerosine Sep -8.75/-8.25 224.12-224.62 -3.92
Laurel
Jet fuel on Buckeye pipeline did not trade hands Friday but ULSHO Sep -12.00/-11.50 220.87-221.37 -4.92
was bid at stronger levels, boosting Nymex differentials by 1¢/ ULSD Sep -4.50/-4.00 228.37-228.87 -4.92
Jet Sep -9.25/-8.75 223.62-224.12 -3.92
USG to -9.00¢/USG. Jet cash prices fell 3.9¢/USG to $2.24¢/
Colonial Linden
USG. Arbitrage economics for shipping US Gulf coast jet fuel to ULSHO Cycle 44 Sep -12.50/-12.00 220.37-220.87 -5.42
New York Harbor via the Colonial pipeline remained negative HO 77 Cycle 44 Sep -16.17/-15.17 216.70-217.70 -0.65
ULSD Cycle 44 Sep -4.50/-4.00 228.37-228.87 -4.92
at -3.65¢/USG, slightly stronger from -4.10¢/USG the previous Jet 54 Cycle 44 Sep -9.25/-8.75 223.62-224.12 -3.92
day.
Gulf coast ¢/USG
Basis Differential Price ±
Gulf coast
Colonial
US Gulf coast diesel and jet fuel prices were the lowest in ULSHO 67 Cycle 47 Sep -16.59/-16.14 216.28-216.73 -4.28
a week on Friday as multi-week high cash differentials were Heating oil 77 Cycle 47 Sep -24.94/-22.94 207.93-209.93 -4.28
Weighted average -23.94 208.93
offset by losses in the underlying basis. Heating oil 77 Cycle 48 Sep -24.94/-22.94 207.93-209.93 -4.28
Ultra-low sulphur diesel (ULSD) traded from September ULSD 62 Cycle 47 Sep -8.45/-8.00 224.42-224.87 -4.37
Nymex -8.45¢/USG to -8¢/USG, rising by 0.55¢/USG to a 17-ses- Weighted average -8.22 224.65
ULSD 62 Cycle 48 Sep -7.68/-7.23 225.19-225.64 -4.38
sion high on the final day of scheduling for Colonial Pipeline’s Jet 54 Cycle 48 Sep -13.40/-12.50 219.47-220.37 -4.92
47th cycle. Yet outright prices still shed 4.37¢/USG to $2.25/ Weighted average -12.95 219.92
Jet 54 Cycle 49 Oct -14.84/-13.54 219.82-221.12 -4.92
USG as September Nymex futures settled 2.1pc lower.
Kerosine 55 Cycle 48 Sep -13.15/-12.25 219.72-220.62 -4.92
Cycle 48 ULSD held at 0.78¢/USG above the prompt cycle in Kerosine 55 Cycle 49 Oct -14.59/-13.29 220.07-221.37
the absence of fresh roll trades. Colonial Line Space
Distillates Line 02 Cycle 47 -1.00/-0.50 nc
Waterborne*
CME Nymex ultra low-sulfur diesel Heating oil Sep -23.19/-21.19 209.68-211.68 -4.28
ULSD 62 Sep -6.70/-6.25 226.17-226.62 -4.37
Price Crack spread
ULSD 62 ex-RVO Sep -15.04/-14.59 217.83-218.28 -4.28
Month ¢/USG ± Month $/bl Jet 54 Sep -11.65/-10.75 221.22-222.12 -4.37
Kerosine 55 Sep -11.40/-10.50 221.47-222.37 -4.37
Sep 232.87 -4.92 Sep +21.16
fob USGC barge
Oct 234.66 -5.03 Oct +23.02 Diesel 2000 ppm max sulphur CPL 62 -14.97/-12.97 209.68-211.68 -4.28
Nov 235.95 -5.01 Nov +24.43 *"at cost" prices - see www.argusmedia.com/methodology for more information

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Argus US Products Issue 24-157 | Friday 16 August 2024

DISTILLATES

fob USGC cargo ¢/USG Delivered South America $/m³

Basis Differential Price ± Origin Price ±
¢/USG $/m³ ¢/USG ¢/USG
Santos, Brazil
ULSD ex-RVO USGC 624.64 -11.18
Jet fuel A Colonial +1.00/+3.00 586.65-591.93 222.07-224.07 -4.82
Jet USGC 628.68 -12.77
Diesel 45 Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
Colonial +1.75/+2.75 601.76-604.40 227.79-228.79 -4.31
cetane Jet USGC 628.07 -12.76
Paranagua, Brazil
Diesel EN 590 Colonial +2.50/+3.50 603.74-606.38 228.54-229.54 -4.31
ULSD ex-RVO USGC 627.64 -11.01
Itaqui, Brazil
Diesel S10 Colonial +2.25/+3.00 603.08-605.06 228.29-229.04 -4.31
ULSD ex-RVO USGC 614.10 -11.09
Jet USGC 618.28 -12.77
Colonial Pipeline Weighted Average Strip ¢/USG
Suape, Brazil
Price ± ULSD ex-RVO USGC 619.96 -10.93
Jet USGC 622.30 -12.76
ULSD 226.04 -4.31
Montevideo, Uruguay
Jet 221.07 -4.82 ULSD ex-RVO USGC 627.66 -11.10
Buenos Aires, Argentina
Delivered Florida ¢/USG ULSD ex-RVO USGC 630.97 -11.18
Basis Differential Price ± Pozos, Colombia
ULSD USGC 622.30 -9.51
Port Everglades, Florida
Barranquilla, Colombia
ULSD 62 USGC +9.50/+10.50 235.54-236.54 -4.31
ULSD USGC 620.14 -9.63
Jet 54 USGC +9.00/+11.00 230.07-232.07 -4.82
Jet USGC 603.24 -11.12
Tampa, Florida
Cartagena, Colombia
ULSD 62 USGC +9.50/+10.50 235.54-236.54 -4.31
ULSD USGC 620.11 -9.67
Jet 54 USGC +9.00/+11.00 230.07-232.07 -4.82
Callao, Peru
ULSD ex-RVO USGC 629.56 -7.71
Jet USGC 632.25 -9.57
Arica, Chile
Gulf coast 54-grade jet fuel differentials on Colonial’s
ULSD USGC 754.30 -9.07
newly prompt cycle 48 were stable at September Nymex Jet USGC 794.70 -11.87
-12.95¢/USG, although this marked a 0.55¢/USG gain from cycle Paraguay
ULSD USGC 743.34 -13.03
47 trades struck in the prior session. Jet USGC 783.74 -15.84
Outright jet fuel prices at the Gulf coast hit five-session Includes AFRMM of 8% for Brazilian ports
lows, falling 4.37¢/USG to $2.20/USG. Arbitrage for shipping
Gulf coast jet to the US northeast remained closed on paper at
3.65¢/USG below the pipeline tariff. Arbitrage economics simi- unchanged from the previous session.
larly remained unviable to Tulsa, Oklahoma, but the spread to In the upper midcontinent, Chicago’s West Shore/Badger
Chicago held open at 7.05¢/USG above the cost of shipping. pipeline ULSD cash differentials rose by 0.25¢/USG as buyers
in the market bid at a 1¢/USG premium to the Nymex. Cash
Midcontinent prices at the pipeline fell by 4.67¢/USG to $2.34/USG.
Group Three diesel prices dropped to their lowest levels in Chicago’s Buckeye Complex ULSD received bids and offers
eight trading sessions on Friday as cash differentials and Ny- in a wide range between flat to the September Nymex and at
mex futures weakened. +3¢/USG leaving cash differentials steady. Prices for ULSD at
Ultra-low sulphur diesel (ULSD) exchanged hands at Group the Complex dropped by 4.92¢/USG to $2.34/USG, the lowest
Three in a range between 2.5¢/USG to 2.75¢/USG below the price since 6 August. The arbitrage opportunity to ship ULSD
September ULSD Nymex, easing cash differentials down by to Chicago narrowed to a 9.23¢/USG premium to the US Gulf
0.38¢/USG. Group Three outright ULSD prices fell by 5.29¢/ coast.
USG to $2.30/USG, the lowest price since 6 August. Jet fuel at Chicago’s West Shore/Badger pipeline fell by
For jet fuel, declins in the Nymex futures contract de- 4.92¢/USG to $2.35/USG amid stable cash differentials and
creased Group Three prices by 4.92¢/USG to $2.26/USG, decreased Nymex futures. Arbitrage economics to send jet
the lowest price since 6 August. Cash differentials remained fuel to Chicago remained open during the session while the

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Argus US Products Issue 24-157 | Friday 16 August 2024

DISTILLATES

DEF bulk, 16 Aug 24 ¢/USG Midcontinent ¢/USG

Low High ± Basis Differential Price ±

fot Atlanta 110.00 122.00 nc Group 3

fot Chicago 110.00 125.00 nc ULSD X prompt Sep -2.75/-2.50 230.12-230.37 -5.30
fot Dallas 108.00 121.00 nc Weighted average -2.57 230.30
fot Denver 110.00 125.00 nc ULSD X any Aug Sep -2.00/-1.75 230.87-231.12 -5.30
Jet Q prompt Sep -7.00/-6.50 225.87-226.37 -4.92
fot Los Angeles 125.00 130.00 nc
West Shore/Badger
fot Philadelphia 117.00 125.00 nc
ULSD 3rd Aug Sep +1.00/+1.50 233.87-234.37 -4.67
ULSD 1st Sep Oct -0.25/+0.25 234.41-234.91 -5.03
Argus Diesel Temperature Correction Factors (TCFs) Jet 3rd Aug Sep +2.25/+2.75 235.12-235.62 -4.92
Jet 1st Sep Oct -2.04/-1.54 232.62-233.12 -4.92
Chicago BCX
ULSD BCX 3rd Aug Sep +0.75/+1.25 233.62-234.12 -4.92
Boston ULSD BCX 1st Sep Oct -0.25/+0.25 234.41-234.91 -5.03
St Paul Buffalo 99.496% Chicago Wolverine
99.599% Detroit 99.556% ULSD 3rd Aug Sep +0.75/+1.25 233.62-234.12 -4.92

99.482% West coast ¢/USG

Linden
Basis Differential Price ±
99.290%
Hammond Philadelphia Los Angeles
99.525% 99.244% Carb ULSD Sep Oct -6.25/-5.75 228.41-228.91
Weighted average -6.00 228.66
EPA ULSD Sep Oct -7.25/-6.75 227.41-227.91
Jet Aug Sep +1.75/+2.25 234.62-235.12 -3.92
TCFs shown are for a specific terminal in that city. See TCF Methodology for Weighted average +2.00 234.87
details. For a given amount of fuel, the Argus TCF is the volume at 60° F
LAX
divided by the volume at the real in-tank temperature. See all TCFs.
Jet Aug Sep +0.25/+0.75 233.12-233.62 -3.92
San Francisco
Carb ULSD Aug Sep -18.25/-17.75 214.62-215.12 -4.92
premium to the US Gulf coast narrowed to 15.45¢/USG. EPA ULSD Aug Sep -18.25/-17.75 214.62-215.12 -4.92
Inventory has been tight in the upper midcontinent as a Jet Aug Sep +1.75/+2.25 234.62-235.12 -3.92
San Francisco waterborne
market participant noted that refiners could be buying up
Carb ULSD Aug Sep -16.75/-16.25 216.12-216.62 -4.92
product from other refiners in anticipation of turnarounds. Carb ULSD ex-RVO Aug Sep -25.09/-24.59 207.78-208.28 -4.83
Portland
West coast ULSD Aug Sep -2.75/-2.25 230.12-230.62 -4.92
Los Angeles jet fuel differentials inched higher on Friday, but
pressure from the day’s Nymex contract losses weighed on
middle distillate cash prices. Nymex in Los Angeles, and cash prices on Friday dipped by
Prompt Los Angeles jet fuel with pipe/LAX option traded 3.13¢/USG to $2.29/USG as the October Nymex contract, too,
2.00¢/USG over the September Nymex ultra-low sulphur diesel depreciated. Non-California EPA ULSD last traded 7.00¢/USG
(ULSD) contract. This was a penny above the day prior’s mid- under the basis, and cash prices slid 3.13¢/USG lower to $2.28/
point but down from Thursday’s high of 7.00¢/USG over the USG by Friday afternoon.
basis. Cash prices slid by 3.92¢/USG to $2.35/USG in tandem In San Francisco, both diesel grades were last discussed
with the lower Nymex close, while LAX-only volume depreci- 18.00¢/USG under the September Nymex, but differentials are
ated by the same measure to $2.33/USG. little tested in thin northern California liquidity this month.
Regional diesel markets remained quiet on Friday as Los Cash prices for both products declined in tandem with the
Angeles rolled to September timing. Nymex, by 4.92¢/USG to $2.15/USG.
In-state CARB diesel last traded 6.00¢/USG below the

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Argus US Products Issue 24-157 | Friday 16 August 2024

DISTILLATES

Assessment rationale Gulf coast deals

Grade Timing Price Volume
Prompt USAC Colonial Linden ULSD did not trade. With no new
information detected, the midpoint was adjusted to reflect Colonial 62 cycle 47 -8.45 25
cycle 47 -8.25 25
values for the now prompt cycle 44.
cycle 47 -8.25 25
The USAC Buckeye ULSD market was set at either side of trade cycle 47 -8.25 25
reported at September Nymex ULSD contract -4.75¢/USG. cycle 47 -8.25 25
cycle 47 -8.25 25
Gulf coast Colonial ULSD transactions meeting the volume
cycle 47 -8.25 25
minimums were available to set the low and high price accord- cycle 47 -8.25 25
ing to the methodology. cycle 47 -8.25 25
NYH barge ULSD did not trade. With no new information de- cycle 47 -8.15 25
cycle 47 -8.15 25
tected, NYH barge remained at parity to USAC Buckeye ULSD.
cycle 47 -8.15 25
USAC Colonial Linden ULSH did not trade. With no new infor- cycle 47 -8.15 25
mation detected, the previous day's low and high were held cycle 47 -8.00 25
unchanged.
USAC barge ULSH did not trade. With no new information de- Atlantic coast deals
Grade Timing Price Volume
tected, the previous day's low and high were held unchanged.
The USAC Buckeye jet market failed to trade. Bid levels at Diesel ULSD 62 CPL cycle 43 Sep -4.50 25
September Nymex ULSD contract -9.25¢/USG were used to set cycle 43 Sep -4.50 25
Diesel ULSD Buckeye 22-23 Aug Sep -4.75 10
the day's range low.
26-27 Aug Sep -4.75 10
USAC barge jet failed to trade. With no new information de-
tected, barge jet remained assessed at parity to Buckeye jet.
Midcontinent deals
Grade Timing Price Volume

Diesel ULSD MPL Group 3 19 Aug Sep -2.00 10

DATA AND DOWNLOADS prompt Sep -2.75 10
prompt Sep -2.50 25

USWC-Pacific Imports/Exports of conventional

products, renewable fuel and feedstocks West coast deals
>> click here Grade Timing Price Volume

Jet fuel LA Aug Sep +2.00 25

NYH 87M vs Colonial 87M ¢/USG LA jet cash ¢/USG

25 270
260
20
250
240
15
230
hh 220 hh
10
210

5 200
190
0 180
15 May 14 Jun 18 Jul 16 Aug 15 May 14 Jun 18 Jul 16 Aug

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Argus US Products Issue 24-157 | Friday 16 August 2024

CLEAN PRODUCT FORWARD CURVES

Physical ¢/USG Physical (continued) ¢/USG

Timing Basis Differential Price ± Timing Basis Differential Price ±

87 conv M Colonial Linden Jet New York barge

Cycle 44 Sep +2.50/+3.00 233.52-234.02 -3.03 Prompt Sep -9.25/-8.75 223.62-224.12 -3.92
Cycle 45 Sep +2.50/+3.00 233.52-234.02 -3.03 10 days forward Sep -12.25/-11.75 220.62-221.12 -4.17
Cycle 46 Sep +2.50/+3.00 233.52-234.02 15 days forward Sep -15.25/-14.75 217.62-218.12 -4.42
20 days forward Oct -20.04/-19.54 214.62-215.12 -4.67
Reg CBOB A Colonial Linden
Jet Colonial Linden
Cycle 44 Sep -10.25/-9.75 220.77-221.27 -5.28
Cycle 44 Sep -9.25/-8.75 223.62-224.12 -3.92
Cycle 45 Sep -10.25/-9.75 220.77-221.27 -4.91 Cycle 45 Sep -12.25/-11.75 220.62-221.12 -4.17
Cycle 46 Sep -10.25/-9.75 220.77-221.27 Cycle 46 Sep -15.25/-14.75 217.62-218.12 -4.42
Reg RBOB New York barge Kerosine New York barge
Prompt Sep +3.00/+3.25 234.02-234.27 -5.91 Prompt Sep -8.75/-8.25 224.12-224.62 -3.92
10 days forward Sep +3.00/+3.25 234.02-234.27 -4.66 10 days forward Sep -11.75/-11.25 221.12-221.62 -4.17
15 days forward Sep +1.75/+2.25 232.77-233.27 -4.91 15 days forward Sep -14.75/-14.25 218.12-218.62 -4.42
20 days forward Oct +17.50/+18.50 231.49-232.49 -5.00 20 days forward Oct -19.54/-19.04 215.12-215.62 -4.67
Any Aug Sep +1.75/+2.25 232.77-233.27 -4.78 Heating oil Colonial 77
Cycle 47 Sep -24.94/-22.94 207.93-209.93 -4.28
Prem RBOB New York barge
Cycle 48 Sep -24.94/-22.94 207.93-209.93 -4.28
Prompt Sep +25.00/+26.00 256.02-257.02 -5.28
Cycle 49 Oct -26.73/-24.73 207.93-209.93 -4.28
10 days forward Sep +25.00/+26.00 256.02-257.02 -5.28 Cycle 50 Oct -26.73/-24.73 207.93-209.93 -4.28
15 days forward Sep +25.00/+26.00 256.02-257.02 -5.28 Heating oil Colonial 77 Linden
20 days forward Oct +42.03/+43.03 256.02-257.02 -5.28 Cycle 44 Sep -16.17/-15.17 216.70-217.70 -0.65
87 conv Colonial M Cycle 45 Sep -18.92/-17.92 213.95-214.95 +0.10
Cycle 48 Sep -3.75/-3.50 227.27-227.52 -3.78 Cycle 46 Sep -21.67/-20.67 211.20-212.20
Cycle 49 Oct +12.43/+12.68 226.42-226.67 -3.63 ULSD Colonial 62
Cycle 50 Oct +11.93/+12.18 225.92-226.17 -3.38 Cycle 47 Sep -8.45/-8.00 224.42-224.87 -4.37
Cycle 51 Oct +11.68/+11.93 225.67-225.92 -3.38 Cycle 48 Sep -7.68/-7.23 225.19-225.64 -4.38
Cycle 49 Oct -9.17/-8.67 225.49-225.99 -4.38
Reg CBOB Colonial A
Cycle 50 Oct -8.87/-8.32 225.79-226.34 -4.38
Cycle 48 Sep -16.75/-16.50 214.27-214.52 -5.03
Cycle 51 Oct -8.57/-7.97 226.09-226.69 -4.38
Cycle 49 Oct -0.57/-0.32 213.42-213.67 -4.88 Cycle 52 Oct -8.27/-7.62 226.39-227.04 -4.38
Cycle 50 Oct -1.07/-0.82 212.92-213.17 -4.63 Jet Colonial 54
Cycle 51 Oct -1.32/-1.07 212.67-212.92 -4.38 Cycle 48 Sep -13.40/-12.50 219.47-220.37 -4.92
Heating oil New York barge Cycle 49 Oct -14.84/-13.54 219.82-221.12 -4.92
Prompt Sep -16.17/-15.17 216.70-217.70 -4.15 Cycle 50 Oct -14.49/-12.79 220.17-221.87 -4.92
10 days forward Sep -18.92/-17.92 213.95-214.95 -3.40 Cycle 51 Oct -14.14/-12.04 220.52-222.62 -4.92
15 days forward Sep -21.67/-20.67 211.20-212.20 -2.65 Cycle 52 Oct -13.79/-11.29 220.87-223.37 -4.92
20 days forward Oct -26.21/-25.21 208.45-209.45 -1.90 Cycle 53 Oct -13.44/-10.54 221.22-224.12

Any Aug Sep -21.67/-20.67 211.20-212.20 -2.65

ULSH Colonial Linden Refined products swaps ¢/USG
Cycle 44 Sep -12.50/-12.00 220.37-220.87 -5.42
Cycle 45 Sep -12.00/-11.50 220.87-221.37 -5.42
Cycle 46 Sep -11.50/-11.00 221.37-221.87 USGC ULSD USGC Gasoline M2
ULSD New York barge 230
Prompt Sep -5.00/-4.50 227.87-228.37 -4.80
10 days forward Sep -4.75/-4.50 228.12-228.37 -4.92
220
15 days forward Sep -4.50/-4.00 228.37-228.87 -4.92
20 days forward Oct -6.29/-5.79 228.37-228.87 -4.92
Any Aug Sep -4.50/-4.00 228.37-228.87 -4.92 hhhh
210
ULSD Colonial Linden
Cycle 44 Sep -4.50/-4.00 228.37-228.87 -4.92
Cycle 45 Sep -4.25/-3.75 228.62-229.12 -4.67 200
Cycle 46 Sep -4.00/-3.50 228.87-229.37

190
Aug 24 Oct 24 Dec 24 Feb 25 Apr 25 Jun 25 Aug 25

— Argus US Refined Products Forward Curves

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Argus US Products Issue 24-157 | Friday 16 August 2024

BIOFUELS AND BLENDING COMPONENTS

Renewable diesel (R99) ¢/USG Ethanol ¢/USG

Basis Timing Diff Price ± Low High ±
Chicago
Head of pipe
Argo same-day 180.75 181.85
Los Angeles Nymex ULSD Sep +17.07/+17.57 Argo in-tank prompt 180.00 181.10 +0.28
CARB ULSD Weighted average 181.10
Sep -20.25/-19.75 251.73-252.23 -3.290
attributes* Argo in-tank any Aug 179.50 180.60 -0.45
San Francisco Nymex ULSD Aug +0.07/+0.57 Rule 11 rail prompt 177.00 181.50 -1.25
CARB ULSD New York Harbor
Aug -25.25/-24.75 232.94-233.44 -5.080 Barge any Aug 190.50 192.00 +0.63
attributes*
del Rail New Jersey
Los Angeles Nymex ULSD Sep +13.00/+17.00 247.66-251.66 -3.130 Sewaren in-tank prompt 192.50 193.00 -1.38
US Gulf coast/south
CARB ULSD
Sep -24.32/-20.32 Houston barge/rail 191.00 195.10 +0.28
attributes*
Tampa rail 197.25 198.85 +0.28
San Francisco Nymex ULSD Aug +13.00/+17.00 245.87-249.87 -4.920 Atlanta rail 188.25 190.85 +0.28
CARB ULSD Dallas rail 188.75 193.35 +0.28
Aug -12.32/-8.32
attributes* Nebraska
del barge Union Pacific rail 161.00 169.00 nc
New York BNSF rail 161.00 169.00 nc
Nymex ULSD Sep +13.76/+43.34 263.210 -3.745 Los Angeles
Harbor
fob barge Low-carbon intensity rail 213.00 213.50 nc
US Gulf coast Nymex ULSD Sep +1.74/+31.32 251.190 -3.745 Brazil
fob anhydrous $/m³ 484.00 605.00 -3.00
* CCA cost for diesel + LCFS deficit cost for diesel + Crude CI deficit cost for diesel fob anhydrous BRL/m³ 2,647.14 3,308.93 -14.43
del anhydrous $/m³ 579.00 592.00 +1.00
Sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) ¢/USG del anhydrous BRL/m³ 3,166.72 3,237.83 +7.57
Price ± Biodiesel ¢/USG
SAF100 (tallow-based) del California 504.75 -4.72 Differential Price ±

SAF100 (tallow-based) del Illinois 618.77 -5.72 New York Harbor fob barge
B100 Sep +169.25/+171.75 402.12-404.62 -5.67
B99 Sep -10.00/-7.50 222.87-225.37 -4.92
B99 3Q24 -10.00/-7.50
Ethanol B99 4Q24 -16.00/-14.00
US spot ethanol markets were mostly steady on Friday, avoid- Houston rail/barge
B100 Sep +169.25/+174.25 402.12-407.12 -5.67
ing pressure from sliding corn futures. B99 Sep -10.00/-5.00 222.87-227.87 -4.92
Front month CBOT corn futures settled down to 370.5¢/ Chicago In-tank transfer Argo
B100 Sep +164.25/+167.25 397.12-400.12 -5.67
bushel, 4.5¢/bushel lower than Thursday, which pushed prices B99 Sep -15.00/-12.00 217.87-220.87 -4.92
to a new four-year low. San Francisco fob
B99 Sep -20.00/-15.00 212.87-217.87 -4.92
Chicago Rule 11 railcars swapped hands at 177¢/USG, while Los Angeles fob
buyer and seller interest surfaced at 180¢/USG and 183¢/USG, B99 Sep -15.00/-10.00 217.87-222.87 -4.92
reducing values by 1.25¢/USG to 179.25¢/USG.
Argo prompt in-tank transfers gained 0.28¢/USG to
180.55¢/USG, with trade reported as high as 181.1¢/USG and Liquidity thinned as demand from distributors weakened
bids and offers at 179¢/USG and 181¢/USG framing the low after the back-to-school effect on consumption somewhat
range at 180¢/USG. disappointed.
New York Harbor front month barges firmed by 0.63¢/USG There were reports of some producers running out of
to 191.25¢/USG, with fresh buyer and seller interest heard at storage room, making them settle for lower prices during this
190.5¢/USG and 192¢/USG. week.
Meanwhile, prompt Sewaren in-tank transfers lost 1.38¢/ The ex-mill market went up by R21/m³ to R3,136/m³ in
USG after being dealt at 192.75¢/USG. Ribeirao Preto. Delivered hydrous ethanol prices fell by R40/
m³ to R3,160/m³.
Brazil Solid demand for the hydrous fuel in the domestic market-
Brazilian hydrous ethanol prices went up at mills in Sao Paulo place pressured anhydrous offers in the Center-South, filtering
and fell for delivery in Paulinia. into fob Santos quotes, which moved $3/m³ to $484-605/m³.

Copyright © 2024 Argus Media group Page 12 of 29

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Argus US Products Issue 24-157 | Friday 16 August 2024

BIOFUELS AND BLENDING COMPONENTS

Ethanol forward curves ¢/USG RINs ¢/RIN

Chicago New York Low High ±
Renewable fuel (ethanol D6)
Aug 179.50-180.60 190.50-192.00
Weighted average 52.40
Sep 178.50-179.60 190.50-192.00 2023 49.00 52.50 -0.50
Oct 173.75-174.85 185.75-187.25 2024 51.00 54.50 -0.50
Nov 166.25-167.35 178.25-179.75 2025 53.00 54.50 -1.00
Biomass-based diesel (D4)
Biofuel spreads 2023 50.50 52.50 +0.25
Differential 2024 52.00 53.50 -0.50
2025 57.00 59.00 -0.25
Ethanol crush $/bushel +2.35 Cellulosic biofuels (D3)
Heating oil-soybean oil ¢/USG -0.67 2023 321.50 331.50 -7.00
2024 325.00 335.00 -5.50
Futures 2025 275.00 285.00 +5.00
Advanced biofuels (D5)
Settlement ±
2023 49.50 51.50 +0.25
2024 51.50 53.00 -1.00
CBOT corn ¢/bushel
2025 56.50 58.50 -0.25
Sep 24 370.50 -4.50 Renewable volume obligation (RVO) ¢/USG
Dec 24 392.50 -4.50 2023 7.48 -0.07
Mar 25 411.00 -4.75 2024 8.34 -0.09
May 25 421.75 -4.75
CBOT soybean oil ¢/lb RIN spreads ¢/RIN
Sep 24 39.95 +0.48 Today ± Prior day 5-day avg
Oct 24 39.18 +0.29
Category spreads, 2023
Dec 24 38.67 +0.16
Biodiesel D4-ethanol D6 0.750 +0.750 0.000 0.175
Jan 25 38.76 +0.11
Biodiesel D4-advanced biofuel D5 1.000 nc 1.000 1.000
CBOT soybeans ¢/bushel
Advanced biofuel D5-ethanol D6 -0.250 +0.750 -1.000 -0.825
Sep 24 938.75 -12.75
Category spreads, 2024
CBOT soybean meal $/t
Biodiesel D4-ethanol D6 0.000 nc 0.000 0.025
Sep 24 303.40 -4.50 Biodiesel D4-advanced biofuel D5 0.500 +0.500 0.000 0.450
Advanced biofuel D5-ethanol D6 -0.500 -0.500 0.000 -0.425
Category spreads, 2025
Cif Brazil values settled at $579-592/m³, up $1/m³ from the Biodiesel D4-ethanol D6 4.250 +0.750 3.500 na
Biodiesel D4-advanced biofuel D5 0.500 nc 0.500 nc
previous session tracking Chicago's paper markets.
Advanced biofuel D5-ethanol D6 3.750 +0.750 3.000 nc
Vintage spreads, 2023-2024
RINs Biodiesel D4 -1.250 +0.750 -2.000 -1.500
Advanced biofuel D5 -1.750 +1.250 -3.000 -2.050
D4 and D6 RIN credits posted mild losses overall as the BOHO
Ethanol D6 -2.000 nc -2.000 -1.650
spread rebounded, while heavy selling in D3 markets sent Vintage spreads, 2024-2025
those credit values to their lowest point in over a month. Biodiesel D4 -5.250 -0.250 -5.000 na
Advanced biofuel D5 -5.250 -0.750 -4.500 na
The Argus Renewable Volume Obligation softened by 0.09¢/
Ethanol D6 -1.000 +0.500 -1.500 na
USG and finished the day at 8.34¢/USG.
2024 ethanol D6 RINs dipped in value to as low as 51¢/RIN Tier 3 (CC0) sulphur credits $/mn USG credits
early in the session, but rebounded to 54.5¢/RIN after midday Low High ±
for an overall loss of 0.5¢/RIN. 2025 credits received buyer Standard 2300.00 2600.00 nc
interest at 53¢/RIN and seller interest at 54.5¢/RIN earlier in
the day. 50:50 split of retroactive blenders tax credit (BTC) ¢/USG
Biomass-based diesel D4 RINs received limited interest but Credit

were valued alongside concurrent D6 credits for much of the BTC 0.00
day. Trade materialized at 52¢/RIN and 52.5¢/RIN. 2025 D4
Benzene credits ¢/USG
RINs were bid at a 5¢/RIN premium at multiple points through-
Low High ±
out the day.
Transactions for cellulosic biofuel D3 RINs were reported CC0 180.00 200.00 nc

Copyright © 2024 Argus Media group Page 13 of 29

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Argus US Products Issue 24-157 | Friday 16 August 2024

BIOFUELS AND BLENDING COMPONENTS

Blendstocks ¢/USG Carbon

Basis Differential Price ± Vintage Del Bid Ask Price ±

Alkylate California carbon allowances (CCA) $/t

NY barge ex duty Sep +17.50/+18.50 248.52-249.52 -4.78 2024 Aug 24 32.25 32.35 32.30 -0.16
Houston 87 NLT 9 RVP +26.63/+28.63 254.03-256.03 -4.78 2024 Dec 24 32.84 32.94 32.89 -0.15
diff to Nymex RBOB Sep +23.00/+25.00 254.02-256.02 -4.78 2025 Dec 25 34.88 34.98 34.93 -0.16
Raffinate Washington carbon allowances (WCA) $/t
Houston 87 NLT 9 RVP -37.38/-35.38 190.02-192.02 -4.78 Aug 24 34.90 35.30 35.10 -0.10
diff to Nymex RBOB Sep -41.00/-39.00 190.02-192.02 -4.78 2024 Dec 24 35.55 35.95 35.75 -0.15
Reformate CCA price ¢/USG Winter Summer
NY barge ex duty Sep +63.50/+64.50 294.52-295.52 -5.28 Regular CARBOB 25.96 -0.13 26.03 -0.13
Houston 87 NLT 9 RVP +60.63/+62.63 288.03-290.03 -4.78 Month index Jul 27.84 -0.89
diff to Nymex RBOB Sep +57.00/+59.00 288.02-290.02 -4.78 Midgrade CARBOB 25.96 -0.13 25.97 -0.12
Month index Jul 27.77 -0.89
MTBE ¢/USG Prem CARBOB 25.98 -0.13 25.92 -0.13
Price ± Month index Jul 27.72 -0.89
ULSD 33.07 -0.16
fob USGC 267.50-268.50 -5.00 Month index Jul 35.36 -1.14
WCA price ¢/USG Winter Summer
Regular gasoline 28.11 -0.08 28.79 -0.08
Month index Jul 27.97 +0.29
as high as 335¢/RIN and as low as 325¢/RIN for a drop of 5.5¢/ Midgrade gasoline 28.27 -0.08 28.83 -0.08
Month index Jul 28.01 +0.29
RIN. 2025 credits traded at a 50¢/RIN discount along both Prem gasoline 28.43 -0.08 28.86 -0.09
bounds of that range. Month index Jul 28.04 +0.29
ULSD 35.93 -0.10
Month index Jul 34.91 +0.36
Renewable diesel Quebec carbon price for gasoline, diesel C¢/l
Gasoline 9.93 -0.06
R99 differentials inched higher on trade heard in California this
Gasoline month index Jul 10.63 -0.33
week, but liquidity remained thin overall as timing rolled to Diesel 12.35 -0.07
September in Los Angeles on Friday. Diesel month index Jul 13.22 -0.42
California low-carbon fuel standard (LCFS) credits $/t
Los Angeles hop R99 for August was heard traded 20¢/USG LCFS 55.00 56.00 55.50 nc
below CARB ultra-low sulphur diesel (ULSD) + attributes by VWA MTD 48.00
Number of trades MTD 1
mid-week, 5¢/USG above last heard offers in southern Califor- Volume MTD 5,000
nia. Additional volume was heard bid 24¢/USG under basis — Oregon clean fuels program (CFP) credits $/t
CFP 28.00 32.00 30.00 nc
without offers — prior to Friday's roll to September timing, for Washington clean fuel standard (CFS) credits $/t
which period participants indicated volume should trade flat CFS 16.00 20.00 18.00 nc
Canada clean fuel regulations (CFR) credits C$/t
to August. In San Francisco, hop volume was heard traded 25¢/ CFR 170.00 200.00 185.00 nc
USG below the CARB ULSD basis on the same day, in line with California LCFS premium per carbon intensity point ¢/USG
Ethanol 0.45 nc
previous market indications although participants expected
Biodiesel 0.70 nc
prices to trend higher in the near term. California LCFS cost for gasoline, diesel ¢/USG
The mid-week uptick followed the publication of tighter CARBOB 8.25 nc
ULSD 9.37 nc
targets and feedstock requirements under consideration for Crude CI deficit Carbob 0.78 nc
California's Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) that propose to Crude CI deficit diesel 0.88 nc
Oregon CFP cost for gasoline, diesel ¢/USG
cap credit generation for biodiesel and renewable diesel made E10 gasoline 2.79 nc
from soybean oil or canola oil, to just 20pc of a producer's an- B5 diesel 3.18 nc
Washington CFS cost for gasoline, diesel ¢/USG
nual output, per updated language released on 12 August. E10 gasoline 0.20 nc
Appreciation in the underlying CARB ULSD complex also Gasoline 0.55 nc
B2.5 diesel 0.24 nc
lent support to outright R99 values. Cash R99 prices in Los An- Diesel 0.50 nc
geles which gained just over 16¢/USG to $2.55/USG from 9-15 Canada CFR cost C¢/l
Canada - Gasoline 3.21 nc
August, as both CARD ULSD differentials and the front-month
Canada - Diesel 3.58 nc
Nymex ULSD contract climbed in tandem with higher R99 dif- Canada - marine gasoil $/t 30.87 +0.02
ferentials. San Francisco values gained a lesser 4¢/USG during Atlantic Canada - Gasoline* 3.48 -0.03
Atlantic Canada - Diesel* 3.88 -0.03
the week and reached $2.38/USG on 15 August. *Modelled series representing cost of compliance.

Copyright © 2024 Argus Media group Page 14 of 29

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Argus US Products Issue 24-157 | Friday 16 August 2024

BIOFUELS AND BLENDING COMPONENTS

Total California diesel inventories last week drew down by Ethanol deals
Grade Timing Price Volume
the most in 11 weeks as output of non-CARB diesel grades, a
category including renewable diesel, fell. Chicago Argo 21-31 Aug 181.10 5
In the week ended 9 August, diesel inventories — including 21-31 Aug 181.10 5
Chicago Rule 11 16-17 Aug 179.00 4
in-state CARB diesel and other diesel fuels — shrank by 11pc to
16-17 Aug 179.00 4
2.8mn bl, the lowest level since 5 July, according to California
18-24 Aug 177.00 4
Energy Commission (CEC) data. The drop was the steepest Sewaren in-tank 21-31 Aug 192.75 5
since the week ended 24 May when diesel stocks were headed
for a record low.
In-state CARB diesel inventories last week plummeted by RINS deals
Grade Timing Price Volume
more than 17pc to 1.5mn bl, the lowest since 21 June, even
as output rose by 7.3pc to 137,000 b/d. Inventories of other Biodiesel 2024 52.00 250
diesel grades slipped by 3.3pc to 1.3mn bl as refiners curtailed 2024 52.00 500
2024 52.00 1000
production by 15pc to 99,000 b/d.
2024 52.50 500
Fewer-than-normal imports are so far scheduled to reach
Cellulosic 2024 325.00 1300
the US west coast in the next 30 days — likely the result of 2024 329.00 250
scheduled turnarounds at Neste’s Singapore and Rotterdam 2024 329.00 250
facilities this quarter — despite incentives for importers to 2024 335.00 2000
front-load renewable diesel cargoes in anticipation of the 2025 275.00 1300

expiring BTC. 2025 285.00 2000

Ethanol 2024 51.00 250
Eco Marina Del Rey discharged nearly 39,000 bl of renew-
2024 51.00 500
able diesel from Singapore in Portland, Oregon, on 3 August,
2024 51.50 500
per a bill of lading published Wednesday. The stop was the 2024 51.50 1000
vessel's second on the US west coast and followed an 80,000 bl 2024 51.50 1500
delivery to San Francisco on 26 July. 2024 51.50 5000
High Navigator unloaded 80,000 bl in San Francisco, from 2024 51.75 2500

Singapore, on 13 August. Torm Supreme should discharge 2024 52.00 1000

2024 52.00 1000
345,000 bl from Newfoundland at Long Beach on 18 August.
2024 52.00 1000
2024 52.50 500
Assessment rationale 2024 52.50 1000
The RVO was calculated as per the Argus methodology. 2024 52.50 1000
2024 52.50 1000
Biodiesel 2024 53.00 1000

The bean oil-heating oil (BOHO) spread firmed for the first 2024 53.00 1000
2024 53.50 500
time this week on Friday, while B100 premiums extended
2024 53.50 1000
losses.
2024 54.00 500
B99 discounts in all markets went unchanged with no fresh 2024 54.00 1000
market activity surfacing. B100 premiums at New York Harbor, 2024 54.00 2000
Houston and Chicago all lost 0.75¢/USG on lower D4 RIN value. 2024 54.50 1000
The BOHO spread widened by 9¢/USG to 66.76¢/USG,
ending four sessions of losses, after prompt CBOT soybean oil
bounced higher by 0.48¢/lb to 39.95¢/lb. Nymex front month Assessment rationale
heating oil lost 4.92¢/USG to 232.87¢/USG, giving additional No B99 fob NYH barge deals were reported amid lack of trade
weight to the BOHO spread. activity for prompt volumes. Absent of new information, the
assessment was unchanged.

Copyright © 2024 Argus Media group Page 15 of 29

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Argus US Products Issue 24-157 | Friday 16 August 2024

BIOFUELS AND BLENDING COMPONENTS

Argentina three-year invalidation fell by 10¢ to $16.30/t and CCOs with

Soybean oil prices rebounded on Friday after a five-day sell-off an eight-year invalidation dropped by 10¢ to $16.18/t. The pre-
as both fob Argentina differentials and underlying Chicago mium for CCOs with direct environmental benefits to the state
Board of Trade (CBOT) contracts moved higher. (DEBS), over the non-DEBS offsets, tightened to $14.45/t.
The September loading market added 0.25¢/lb to CBOT The California Air Resources Board issued just under
+0.75¢/lb, while CBOT September futures rose by 0.48¢/lb to 465,900 CCOs this week, with more than 400,000 qualifying for
39.95¢/lb. October volumes gained 0.4¢/lb to CBOT +1¢/lb, DEBS status. The issuance is the second largest for DEBs CCOs
while November-December volumes increased by 0.65¢/lb to so far this year.
CBOT +1.25¢/lb.
LCFS
CCAs California Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) credits quietly
California Carbon Allowances (CCAs) drifted lower on Friday in headed into the weekend after a volatile start to the week.
a quiet session. Spot credits remained at $55.50/metric tonne, unchanged
December 2024 CCAs fell by 15¢ to $32.89/metric tonne from the previous day but higher by $6.50 from where they
after trading 107 times for more than 1.2mn t. started the week. Participants reported little activity over the
Prompt-month CCAs fell by 16¢ to $32.30/t after trading course of the Friday session.
five times for 282,000t. LCFS credits traded across a $16 range in two sessions,
December 2025 CCAs slipped 16¢ lower to $34.93/t after driven by the publication of a proposed 9pc toughening to
trading three times for 130,000t. program targets next year and other changes the California Air
The California market declined over much of the week, Resources Board may consider in November. Staff late Friday
with the exception of small gains in Tuesday’s session, as the published an associated updated environmental impact assess-
latest auction pulled activity and volumes out of the market. ment for comment through the end of September.
CCAs ended the week just above their 13-month low from The release of the updated rulemaking proposal sent LCFS
30 July, potentially as participants anticipate a less-than-ro- physical prices rocketing higher in rare after-hours trade.
bust settlement price for the auction held on Wednesday. Credits traded as high as $65/t before working their way back
With CCAs in the secondary market well below where below $60 by the end of the Tuesday session.
they were at the time of the last auction in May, Wednesday’s Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) December 2025 futures
auction is likely to clear lower than the $37.02/t and $38.35/t traded multiple times at $70/t on Tuesday and as high as
garnered previously for the current and advanced auction, $72.50/t, the highest traded level for the contract since April.
respectively. California and Quebec will announce the results
of the auction on 21 August. Colonial RBOB ¢/USG
Washington Carbon Allowances (WCAs) slipped lower to end
the week. 255
December 2024 WCAs declined by 15¢ to $35.75/t, after 250
trading once for 12,000t. 245
Prompt-month WCAs fell by 10¢ to $35.10/t and have yet to
240
trade this month.
The Washington market moved little over this week, with 235
hhh
only small price changes from session to session. WCAs are 230
slightly lower from where they were on Monday as the repeal 225
initiative on the November ballot and upcoming September
220
auction temper activity in the market.
California Carbon Offsets (CCOs) slipped lower this week. 215
Seller-guaranteed offsets fell by 13¢ to $16.85/t, CCOs with a 15 May 14 Jun 18 Jul 16 Aug

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Argus US Products Issue 24-157 | Friday 16 August 2024

BIOFUELS AND BLENDING COMPONENTS

The burst of activity helped ICE open interest rise by 2.2pc Standard credits both traded this week. Oregon ended the
to about 48,000 positions in the week ended 13 August. Specu- week higher by $1 at $30/t, and Washington higher by $2 at
lators there shifted out of spread positions to long positions. $18/t. Canadian Clean Fuel Regulation credit market partici-
Nodal Exchange open interest rose by 4.7pc, to about 43,000 pants have reported an ongoing wide spread between bids and
positions, with a similar focus on longs. offers, with no trade.
But activity quickly subsided through the rest of the week
as participants digested the proposals. A 9pc stepdown for Blending components
2025, compared to a typical annual 1.25pc decrease, was near- US Gulf coast gasoline blendstocks were unchanged during a
ly double the stepdown staff first proposed last December and sluggish Friday trading session.
the most aggressive short-term option publicly contemplated Alkylate cash differentials were steady at Nymex +25¢/USG.
this spring. A proposed 30pc reduction by 2030, compared Reformate was still assessed at +58¢/USG, while the raf-
to 20pc today, remained in place. But any changes California finate market remained pegged at -40¢/USG.
adopts remained months away — staff have targeted the first Outright prices moved down as the September Nymex
quarter of 2025 — while a record 26mn t bank of credits avail- RBOB contract lost 4.89¢/USG.
able for future compliance will continue to grow. Regional gasoline prices were lower on the day by 3.78¢/
Oregon Clean Fuels Program and Washington Clean Fuel USG.

NYH ULSD vs Heating oil barge ¢/USG Biodiesel RINs ¢/USG

17 70

16
65
15
60
14

hh hhh
13 55

12
50
11

10 45
15 May 14 Jun 18 Jul 16 Aug 15 May 14 Jun 18 Jul 16 Aug

Chicago ethanol vs Chicago RBOB ¢/USG California R99 head of pipe ¢/USG

-25 Los Angeles

San Francisco
-50 500

-75 450

-100 400
hhh
-125 350

-150 300

-175 250
15 May 14 Jun 18 Jul 16 Aug Aug-23 Oct-23

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Argus US Products Issue 24-157 | Friday 16 August 2024

FEEDSTOCKS AND RESIDUAL FUEL OIL

Vacuum gasoil Vacuum gasoil Gulf coast

Basis Differential Price
VGO differentials were stable to end the week after low
sulphur VGO business done Thursday led a downtrend for all Differential to WTI $/bl

sulphur grades. 0.5% cargo Oct +10.89/+11.39 86.43-86.93

0.5% barge Oct +10.64/+11.14 86.18-86.68
Two low sulphur VGO deals were heard done for good qual-
1.0% cargo Oct +10.89/+11.39 86.43-86.93
ity barrels with around 0.3pc sulphur, low metals and good 1.0% barge Oct +10.64/+11.14 86.18-86.68
recovery. 2.0% cargo Oct +10.89/+11.39 86.43-86.93
Both low sulphur VGO barges were offered at October 2.0% barge Oct +10.64/+11.14 86.18-86.68
Differential to Ice Brent $/bl
Brent +$6.75/bl on a delivered Texas basis and were subse-
0.5% cargo Oct +6.75/+7.25 86.43-86.93
quently traded at the offer level.
0.5% barge Oct +6.50/+7.00 86.18-86.68
The barge purchases were attributed to recent unplanned 1.0% cargo Oct +6.75/+7.25 86.43-86.93
crude distillation unit (CDU) work at the Gulf coast, but buyers 1.0% barge Oct +6.50/+7.00 86.18-86.68
and other details of the deals were kept confidential. 2.0% cargo Oct +6.75/+7.25 86.43-86.93
2.0% barge Oct +6.50/+7.00 86.18-86.68
This precipitated a $0.75/bl decline for sweet VGO, bring-
Differential to 70:30 87 conv/heating oil ¢/USG
ing differentials below the previous high and medium sulphur 0.5% cargo -17.82/-16.63 205.79-206.98
levels. 0.5% barge -18.41/-17.22 205.20-206.39
However, VGO buyers were not expected to pay above the 1.0% cargo -17.82/-16.63 205.79-206.98
low sulphur VGO value for the higher sulphur qualities, thus 1.0% barge -18.41/-17.22 205.20-206.39
2.0% cargo -17.82/-16.63 205.79-206.98
prices were assessed at parity across grades.
2.0% barge -18.41/-17.22 205.20-206.39
All VGO differentials were last pegged even for all grades Differential to 70:30 87 conv/ULSD ¢/USG
on 28 June this year for a brief period. 0.5% cargo -22.54/-21.35 205.79-206.98
The downward adjustment for high sulphur VGO was attrib- 0.5% barge -23.13/-21.94 205.20-206.39
uted more to a lack of fresh activity and price points in recent 1.0% cargo -22.54/-21.35 205.79-206.98
1.0% barge -23.13/-21.94 205.20-206.39
weeks.
2.0% cargo -22.54/-21.35 205.79-206.98
The Gulf coast distillate complex is in carry compared to 2.0% barge -23.13/-21.94 205.20-206.39
a backwardated gasoline market, which may result in high 70:30 formulas ¢/USG
sulphur VGO prices exceeding low sulphur VGO in the longer 87 conv waterborne/heating oil -3.93 223.22-223.99
run. However, there was no evidence of buyers willing to pay 87 conv waterborne/ULSD -3.95 228.17-228.48

higher currently. Naphtha barge Gulf coast

Prices for other low sulphur components were also under Basis Differential Price
bearish pressure. Atmospheric tower bottoms (ATBs) values Heavy (40 N+A) ¢/USG 87 NLT 9 RVP -41.63/-38.63 187.52-190.52
typically follow the VGO pricing trend. Heavy (40 N+A) $/t 667.57-678.25
There were no confirmed deals of discussions fielded for Heavy (40 N+A) diff to
Sep -43.50/-40.50 187.52-190.52
Nymex RBOB ¢/USG
ATBs this week amid the swift decline in VGO values.
Full range ¢/USG 87 NLT 9 RVP -47.63/-43.63 181.52-185.52
Market participants mentioned ATB differentials between Full range $/t 658.92-673.44
October Brent +$1/bl by +$5/bl, depending on specifications Full range diff to Nymex
Sep -49.50/-45.50 181.52-185.52
RBOB ¢/USG
CME Nymex LSR/LV ¢/USG C5 +5.00/+8.00 152.50-159.25
Price ± LSR/LV $/t 606.95-633.82
Natural gasoline ¢/USG 147.50-151.25
WTI crude $/bl
Natural gasoline $/t 619.50-635.25
Sep 76.65 -1.51
Oct 75.54 -1.45 Light cycle oil ¢/USG
Nov 74.67 -1.42
Basis Differential Price ±
Henry Hub natural gas $/mmBtu
Sep 2.123 -0.07 0.5% sulphur HO pipe -1.63/-0.63 207.30-208.30 -4.29
Oct 2.247 -0.09 2.0 % sulphur HO pipe -3.63/-2.63 205.30-206.30 -4.28

Copyright © 2024 Argus Media group Page 18 of 29

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Argus US Products Issue 24-157 | Friday 16 August 2024

FEEDSTOCKS AND RESIDUAL FUEL OIL

and end-use markets. Good quality ATBs such as splitters Residual fuel oil
Price ±
would typically be pinned around a $1/bl discount to low
Waterborne* $/t
sulphur VGO, which would top off the range at October Brent
NYH 0.5% fuel oil delivered 550.03-553.40 -9.16
+$5.75/bl. USG 0.5% fuel oil fob 544.98-546.67 -9.15
Low sulphur fuel oil (LSFO) differentials also stabilized at New York waterborne $/bl
the lower levels established earlier this week. 0.3% low pour 86.18-86.68 -1.36
0.3% high pour 86.18-86.68 -1.36
LSFO with 20 API remained between October Brent +$1.25/ 0.5% 81.68-82.18 -1.36
bl by +$1.5/bl, fob Houston. 1.0% 75.57-76.07 -1.30
Unchanged values for both low sulphur VGO and LSFO left 3.0% 71.76-72.26 -1.36
Gulf coast waterborne $/bl
the spread between the two at $5.375/bl on Friday. 0.5% 80.93-81.18 -1.36
VGO cargo differentials were still pinned at a notional 3.0% 70.26-70.51 -1.36
$0.25/bl premium to barges with no new pricing data un- RMG 70.26-70.51 -1.36
0.5% vs Brent $/bl
veiled.
NYH +2.00/+2.50 0.00
A Colombian tender offering to sell a typical 300,000 bl USGC +1.25/+1.50 0.00
cargo of 1pc sulphur VGO loading 6-10 September from Ma- 0.5% vs WTI $/bl
NYH +5.03/+5.53 +0.15
monal was reportedly closed on Friday, but the award was not
USGC +4.28/+4.53 +0.15
verified. *The $/bl and $/t assessments for 0.5% sulphur fuel oil prices in the New York and
US Gulf are assessed independent of each other. They are not directly correlated
Another Colombian 1pc sulphur VGO cargo that was due to by fixed conversion factors due to density variables.
arrive at the Gulf coast this week was not viewed in the mar-
Marine gasoil ¢/USG
ket amid speculations that it may have gone to tank. Sep Differential Price ±
European VGO cargo values were stronger over the course New York 0.5% -21.65/-20.65 211.22-212.22 -4.92
of this week, with high sulphur VGO cargo differentials in
Bunker fuel $/t
northwest Europe seen rising to match low sulphur values. Price ±
Usual VGO cargo sellers from Saudi Arabia and India 380cst
seemed to be more focused on the stronger European market, New York 527.50-532.50 -9.00
keeping US cargo activity thin. Philadelphia 538.00-543.00 -9.00
Houston 450.00-455.00 +11.00
October Brent settled $1.36/bl lower at $79.68/bl on Fri-
Los Angeles 535.00-540.00 -9.00
day, $0.81/bl above the November Brent settlement and $4.14/ Los Angeles 0.5%S 574.00-578.00 -5.00
bl above the October Nymex WTI at $75.54/bl. Seattle 518.00-523.00 -4.00

Light cycle oil (LCO) differentials to the ultra-low sulphur

Residual fuel oil swaps ¢/USG
diesel (ULSD) less Renewable Volume Obligation (RVO) basis
were unchanged around a 8.5¢/USG discount for the low sul-
phur grades. USGC Fuel Oil 3% New York Fuel oil 1%
Higher sulphur LCO remained pegged around a 2¢/USG 80
discount to the sweet grade.
Cash prices for ULSD and heating oil weakened on the day. 75
The ULSD premium to heating oil narrowed slightly to 15.715¢/
USG from 15.805¢/USG noted in the prior session. hhhh
70
The Argus RVO was assessed at 8.34¢/USG Friday, down
0.09¢/USG from Thursday’s value.
65

Naphtha
60
Buying interest for N+A naphtha remained thin Friday, with
Aug 24 Oct 24 Dec 24 Feb 25 Apr 25 Jun 25 Aug 25
firm bids still reported scarce.
Selling interest for multiple lots of heavy virgin naphtha — Argus US Refined Products Forward Curves
(HVN) and full-range N+A naphtha lingered, but there were few
firm, specific offers amid slack demand.

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FEEDSTOCKS AND RESIDUAL FUEL OIL

The September Nymex RBOB was down by 4.78¢/USG on Antilles, FOB St Croix, posted prices
15 Aug 14 Aug 13 Aug 9 Aug 6 Aug
settlement Friday, 17.03¢/USG above the October Nymex
RBOB. Gasoline 95r ¢/USG 276.00 283.00 289.00 280.00 274.00
Cash prices for the Gulf coast waterborne conventional Gasoline 92r ¢/USG 271.00 278.00 284.00 275.00 269.00
Jet/Kerosine ¢/USG 253.00 253.00 253.00 244.00 244.00
gasoline were down 1.36¢/USG on assessment Friday. The Gulf
Gasoil 0.1%S¢/USG 255.00 255.00 249.00 240.00 240.00
coast gasoline market will transition to the weaker October
Fuel oil $/bl 85.00 85.00 85.00 81.00 81.00
Nymex RBOB basis on 20 August.
The steep backwardation in the Nymex RBOB complex and
the upcoming shift to October RBOB discouraged prompt buy- A cargo of light C5 naphtha was heard loaded this week on
ing engagement. the Hellas Calafia from Freepoint. Pricing and other details
HVN buying interest seemed well circulated around Sep- were not directly available.
tember Nymex RBOB -44¢/USG, delivered Gulf coast basis on
Friday. Fuel oil
A barge of 40 N+A naphtha with 57 API and 75ppm sulphur Bearish crude futures reversed gains made in the prior session,
was heard offered at September Nymex RBOB -37¢/USG against causing residual fuel oil prices to retreat on Friday.
a bid at September RBOB -44¢/USG. No business was verified No confirmed business was established on 0.5pc low-
done here as of late afternoon. sulphur fuel oil (LSFO) in either the US Gulf coast or Atlantic
Another premium quality HVN was heard under negotia- coast, and differentials were unchanged on the day. Feedback
tions as well, but details were kept confidential. with market sources confirmed Gulf coast ranges from October
A barge of Calcasieu-quality N+A naphtha was offered at Brent +$1.25/bl to +$1.50/bl. October Brent futures weak-
September Nymex RBOB -40¢/USG, but there was no buying ened by 1.68pc, resulting in cash prices sliding by $1.36/bl, or
interest to this end. $9.16/t, to end the day at $81.06/bl and $5.45.83/t, respec-
The last-concluded Calcasieu-quality barge changed hands tively.
at September Nymex RBOB -41¢/USG on Wednesday, reiterat- High sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) markets were also steady,
ing the value traded on Monday. and both 3pc and 3.5pc differentials remained at parity at a
Demand for Calcasieu N+A naphtha has softened amid $10.675/bl discount to LSFO levels.
weak gasoline cracks. Calcasieu naphtha is typically offered In New York Harbor (NYH), LSFO ranges lacked cohesive
to gasoline blenders as a raffinate substitute, hence fetching market interest, and 0.5pc 20 API gravity material maintained
premiums to generic full-range N+A naphthas. a premium over Gulf coast levels at October Brent +$2.00/bl to
No specific discussions were viewed for generic full-range +$2.50/bl.
N+A naphtha, leaving differentials pinned 5-6¢/USG under the Both high and low-pour 0.3pc NYH LSFO remained assessed
heavy grade. at a $4.5/bl premium over 0.5pc LSFO in the absence of fur-
Light naphtha differentials to natural gasoline (C5) weak- ther trade.
ened at the end of the week as demand faded. NYH 1pc LSFO prices tracked declines in the underlying
Light sour naphtha available on a pumpover was offered at crude basis, slipping lower by 1.68pc, or $1.30/bl, to $75.82/bl
C5 +8¢/USG and bid at C5 +5¢/USG. No business was verified at the conclusion of business.
done to this end. New York 3pc HSFO was pegged at +$1.50/bl to +$1.75/bl
Explorer injects for August were talked between C5 +5¢/ over Gulf coast HSFO levels, and outright prices shed $1.36/bl
USG by +7¢/USG, without conclusion. to $72.10/bl.
Injects for September were discussed between September
C5 +3.5¢/USG by +5.5¢/USG. Marine fuels
Light sweet naphtha available at KMI was offered up to C5 North American bunker demand ended the week on a quiet
+17¢/USG but the bid was reported far behind at C5 +12.5¢/ note. Bunker prices mostly traced losses in Brent crude, which
USG. left ship operators on the sidelines waiting to see if prices

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FEEDSTOCKS AND RESIDUAL FUEL OIL

continue to soften next week. not sell.

In Houston, a ship owner was offered 1,400t of high-sulphur West coast spot bunker demand was soft on Friday. Prices
fuel oil at $455/t with 300t of marine gasoil (MGO) at $705/t dropped tracing crude and lackluster demand. Los Angeles
ex-wharf. was pegged the cheapest west coast port for VLSFO. The Los
A supplier offered 400t of very low-sulphur fuel oil (VLSFO) Angeles VLSFO premium to the competing port of Singapore
with 100t of MGO at $575/t and $720/t ex-wharf, respectively, narrowed to $17/t from $22/t the previous day as prices at the
in New York and did not sell. In Baltimore, Maryland, 500t of two ports diverged. But that failed to attract buying interest.
VLSFO with 100t of MGO were quoted at $580/t and $715/t For a full list of daily, spot bunker deals and firm price
ex-wharf, respectively, and did not sell. An enquiry for 125/t quotes collected by Argus globally click here.
of MGO was offered at $750/t ex-wharf in Baltimore and did

INFRASTRUCTURE NEWS

Toxic US-Canada rail paused ahead of strike phosgene, as well as rail security-sensitive materials such as
Several major North American railroads are suspending ship- explosives.
ments of toxic-by-inhalation products between the US and the US rail regulators are actively monitoring the situation,
two major Canadian carriers, fearing a threatened labor strike concerned about how a rail labor strike in Canada would affect
could leave railcars full of dangerous chemicals stranded. the US rail network and supply chain. The US Surface Transpor-
Canadian Pacific Kansas City (CPKC) and Canadian National tation Board said Wednesday it is monitoring the implementa-
(CN) have issued embargoes on certain freight ahead of a tion and effects of those embargoes on the network.
possible 22 August strike by nearly 10,000 members of the A number of US railroads have this week either imple-
Teamsters Canada Rail Conference (TCRC). mented their own embargoes or said they will comply with the
Union members have voted twice to authorize a strike, and Canadian embargoes.
each railroad has indicated it will lock out union members at US railroads also have begun warning customers about
the same time. other effects of a strike.
Talks between the union and each railroad resumed last “Should the labor negotiations reach an impasse, delays
week in an effort brokered by Canadian labour minister Steven and service suspensions may occur,” eastern US railroad CSX
MacKinnon, but have so far been unsuccessful. The parties had warned this week. The railroad had embargoed toxic and poi-
not formally met for several weeks before that. sonous shipments with CN and CPKC.
MacKinnon Thursday rejected a formal request by CN to Western US railroad BNSF, which owns some lines in Cana-
order binding arbitration. da, will not interchange freight with the Canadian railroads in
CN and CPKC have embargoed shipments of toxic inhalation the event of a strike. But its own operations will continue.
hazards (TIH) and poisonous inhalation hazards (PIH) materi- By Abby Caplan
als. Those products include chlorine, ammonia, ethylene and

INDUSTRY NEWS

NY Harbor RBOB prices hit 4-month low month. Cash differentials dropped to a two-week low at
New York Harbor RBOB prices hit a four-month low today amid September Nymex +3.13¢/US and were down by nearly 3¢/USG
rising inventories and weaker demand sentiment, yet lower since Monday. More sellers emerged as a spot shortage dis-
imports and regional production could shift those dynamics. sipated from earlier this week.
Prompt RBOB prices fell by 5.91¢/USG to $2.34/USG, the The decline in RBOB prices coincided with growing Atlantic
lowest since 28 March and 7.1¢/USG below the rest of this coast stock levels. Total Atlantic coast gasoline inventories

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Argus US Products Issue 24-157 | Friday 16 August 2024

INDUSTRY NEWS

reached a two-month high at about 58.2mn bl the week ended (EIA), the highest level since early June and 7pc above a year
9 August, according to data from the Energy Information Ad- earlier.
ministration (EIA), and were 7pc above a year earlier. Atlantic Steady gasoline shipments from the US Gulf coast have
coast RBOB inventories averaged 19.6mn bl so far in August, up factored into Atlantic coast resupply this season, with the Co-
from 18.9mn bl in July. lonial pipeline segment from Pasadena, Texas, to Greensboro,
Steady gasoline shipments from the US Gulf coast have North Carolina, allocated through at least early September.
continued factoring into Atlantic coast resupply this month, The Gulf coast/New York Harbor arbitrage has been narrow-
with the Colonial pipeline segment from Pasadena, Texas, to ing so far this month but most of the current cycle volume
Greensboro, North Carolina, allocated through at least early obligations were made when the arbitrage was wider. Regional
September. The Gulf coast/New York Harbor gasoline arbi- spreads for RBOB and CBOB have averaged 7¢/USG so far this
trage has been narrower this month but most of the current month, compared to 11.2¢/USG in July.
cycle nominations were made when the arbitrage was wider. In the meantime, Atlantic coast gasoline imports fell to
Regional spreads for RBOB have averaged 8¢/USG so far this nearly a four-month low at 499,000 b/d last week, according to
month, compared to 12¢/USG in July. EIA data. Market participants pointed to a closed transatlantic
Meanwhile, as the end of summer gasoline season ap- arbitrage over the past few weeks and expectations of lower
proaches, selling pressure typically mounts ahead of the shift import volumes this month. New York Harbor gasoline cargo
to cheaper, high-RVP gasoline during the fall RVP transition. arrivals from Europe are expected to total about 3.66mn bl in
Steep backwardation in the forward curve discourages rolling August, according to Kpler, compared to about 6.24mn bl in
surplus inventories of more expensive, low-RVP RBOB into July and 7.74mn bl a year earlier.
September. At the same time, local production has been declining this
The front month Nymex spread averaged 17.25¢/USG this month amid weak margins and could lead to spot shortages
week, compared with 3.7¢/USG in July, but was almost 2¢/USG in New York Harbor when RVP transition begins next month.
narrower than late last week when RBOB shortages formed. Total Atlantic coast refinery runs hit their lowest point since
Weaker backwardation in the front month spread typically cor- late April as utilization rates hit 84.2pc last week, according to
relates with softening prompt demand sentiment. EIA data.
But lower imports and production could roil supply/de- New York Harbor refining margins averaged $19.34/bl so far
mand dynamics in New York Harbor the rest of this month. this month, compared to $37.19/bl a year earlier. US indepen-
Atlantic coast RBOB imports have fallen this month and hit a dent refiner PBF Energy plans to shut a crude distillation unit
five-month low at 69,000 b/d last week, according to EIA data. at its 160,000 b/d Paulsboro, New Jersey, refinery in early
Market participants pointed to a closed transatlantic arbitrage August because of refining economics.
over the past few weeks and expectations of lower import Nationally, US product supplied of finished motor gasoline
volumes this month. — an indicator of demand — was largely unchanged at 9mn b/d
At the same time, total Atlantic coast refinery runs hit last week, according to EIA data.
their lowest point since late April at 84.2pc last week, accord- Prompt summer RBOB prices increased by 3.19¢/USG to
ing to EIA data. Weaker margins have discouraged higher runs $2.4/USG on Thursday amid rising futures. Cash differentials
this season. dropped by 0.5¢/USG to September Nymex +4.25¢/USG, track-
By Stephanie Crawford ing backwardation in the forward curve.
By Stephanie Crawford
US Atlantic gasoline stocks at 2-month high
US Atlantic coast gasoline stocks rose to a two-month high last US cracks: Crude price gains shrink margins
week as steady shipments from the Gulf coast outpaced lower US refining margins narrowed in most regions this week as ris-
imports and regional production. ing crude values outpaced generally higher motor fuel prices.
Atlantic coast gasoline inventories have been rising so far US Atlantic coast
this month and reached 58.22mn bl the week ended 9 August, „ New York RBOB and ULSD cash prices strengthened region-
according to data from the Energy Information Administration ally, but were outweighed by increases in global crude prices,

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INDUSTRY NEWS

reducing refining margins by nearly $2.39/bl. „ Chicago cracks also narrowed on the week, as gasoline
„ New York harbor RBOB cash prices rose after refiners prices tumbled on returning refinery capacity and as Western
trimmed production. Atlantic coast refinery runs dropped to a Canadian Select (WCS) crude values climbed.
15-week low at 88.7pc in the week ended 9 August, according US west coast
to US Energy Information Administration data, „ West coast refining margins posted the only gain in the
„ New York barge ULSD cash prices rebounded this week from week ended 15 August, jumping by nearly 11pc to a 12-week
a 15-month low of $2.25/USG on 6 August. high of $16.20/bl, as higher road fuel prices outpaced an up-
US Gulf coast swing in Alaska North Slope (ANS) crude.
„ The 3-2-1 West Texas Intermediate (WTI) sweet crack „ In-state CARB diesel prices in Los Angeles averaged 3.3pc
spread in the US Gulf coast slipped from the previous week higher at $2.28/USG as both cash differentials and the under-
after gains in gasoline and diesel prices could not match those lying Nymex contract appreciated. California’s total diesel
of crude values. inventories contracted by 11pc to 2.8mn bl in the week ended
„ The regional sweet crack spread averaged $18.41/bl, a loss 9 August, the sharpest drawdown in 11 weeks, according to
of $2.52/bl from the prior week. California Energy Commission data. CARB diesel stocks alone
„ Margins bottomed out at $17.14/bl on Thursday, the lowest fell by more than 17pc to a five-week low of 1.5mn bl, despite
since 19 July. higher output on the week.
„ Average cash prices for Gulf coast 87 finished conventional „ Regular Los Angeles CARBOB prices rose on average by
gasoline rose by 2.1¢/USG on the week after gasoline invento- 5.7pc to $2.42/USG, despite higher weekly in-state production
ries fell to new lows, driving cash prices higher. and inventories.
„ Regional gasoline stockpiles declined to a nearly five-month By Craig Ross
low in the week ended 9 August even after refinery runs
climbed to a four-week high, according to EIA data.
„ Strong arbitrage economics between the Gulf coast and Argus Assessment Rationale Database
New York Harbor as well as continued shipments of stockpiles For prices used in financial benchmarks, Argus publishes
to the US midcontinent have pressured gasoline inventories. daily explanations of the assessment rationale with sup-
But weak regional demand for both diesel and gasoline have porting data. This information is available to permissioned
limited gains in cash prices, narrowing margins on the week as subscribers and other stakeholders.
crude values climbed.
US midcontinent Subscribers to this report via Argus Direct or MyArgus may
access the database here.
„ Group Three cracks narrowed on the week as rising crude
prices outpaced slight increases in regional ULSD values.
Other subscribers may request access here or contact us
„ US midcontinent suboctane stocks built to four-week highs,
by email at [email protected].
reducing gasoline prices in the region.

ANNOUNCEMENT
Argus successfully completes annual Iosco assurance review
Argus has completed the 12th external assurance review of its price benchmarks covering crude oil, oil products, LPG,
chemicals, thermal and coking coal, natural gas, biofuels, biomass, metals, fertilizers and agricultural markets. The review
was carried out by professional services firm PwC. Annual independent, external reviews of oil benchmarks are required by
international regulatory group Iosco’s Principles for Oil Price Reporting Agencies, and Iosco encourages extension of the re-
views to non-oil benchmarks. For more information and to download the review visit our website https://www.argusmedia.
com/en/about-us/governance-compliance

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INDUSTRY NEWS

Newsom seeks minimum Calif refiner stocks USWC jet imports to steady after weekly dip
California governor Gavin Newsom (D) is seeking new legisla- US west coast jet fuel imports slipped by 18pc this week as
tion he says will avoid fuel price spikes by creating first-time arrivals averaged 145,000 b/d across three vessels from South
mandates for the state's refiners to hold minimum fuel invento- Korea, all of which arrived to Alaska, but volumes should stabi-
ries and to mitigate supply losses from maintenance. lize into mid August.
The proposal, released Thursday, would give the Califor- Seaways Moment discharged an estimated 345,000 bl in
nia Energy Commission (CEC) first-time authority to impose Anchorage, Alaska, on 11 August after departing Ulsan, South
penalties on refineries that fall below minimum required fuel Korea, on 28 July, according to global trade and analytics plat-
inventories or that fail to develop "resupply plans" ahead of form Kpler. Redwood Mariner reached Anchorage the same day
scheduled maintenance. Newsom said creating a fuel reserve and unloaded an estimated 347,000 bl, which departed from
will mitigate price spikes that state officials say cost consum- Yeosu, South Korea, on 26 July.
ers more than $1bn last year. Houyoshi Express Li discharged 323,000 bl in Anchorage on
"Refiners should be required to plan ahead and backfill sup- 14 August following its 29 July departure from Yeosu.
plies to keep prices stable, instead of playing games to earn Nearly identical volumes are so far expected to reach the
even more profits," Newsom said. west coast next week, also all from South Korea. But total
California refiners held less than 15 days of gasoline supply volumes are subject to change as more cargoes are scheduled,
for more than two months last year, according to the CEC. or if previously listed vessels are rerouted or identified as car-
Data gathered by the agency show that the state's refineries rying a different product.
have been "racking up profits" by scheduling maintenance dur- STI St Charles is due to dock at Los Angeles on 21 August
ing the peak driving season, CEC petroleum market oversight with 345,000 bl loaded in Yeosu on 2 August, according to
division director Tai Milder said. Kpler. Silver Cindy is expected to reach the west coast on 24
Oil groups oppose the idea, which they say will raise costs August, although an exact destination has not yet been de-
for consumers. Newsom's proposal is "nothing more than a clared. The vessel departed Daesan, South Korea, on 4 August
political attack on consumers and our industry," Western States with 344,000 bl.
Petroleum Association president Catherine Reheis-Boyd said. Garnet Express is on track to reach Anchorage on 26 August
The requirement to hold a minimum fuel inventory "ignores with 324,000 bl, having departed Ulsan on 10 August.
the logical challenges and costs" and is based on an "utter lack By Jasmine Davis
of understanding about our industry," she said.
The release of the proposal comes as Democratic leaders USDA to expand biofuel projects funding
look for novel ways to bring down prices and address voter The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) will spend nearly
concerns they have not done enough to fight inflation. Demo- $100mn on 160 renewable fuel- and electricity-related proj-
cratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris said today she ects in 26 states through the federal government’s Inflation
would back federal legislation creating the first-ever "ban on Reduction Act (IRA).
price gouging" for food and groceries. The funding will come through the Higher Blends Infra-
California's legislature last year enacted SB X1-2 in an ef- structure Incentive Program (HBIIP) and the Rural Energy for
fort to reduce gasoline prices, partly in response to a spike in America Program (REAP).
prices in 2022 when regular grade gasoline averaged $5.31/USG About $90mn will support HBIIP distribution infrastructure
in the state, compared to a $3.95/USG national average. That projects for higher biofuel blends of road fuels. The remainder
law imposed new requirements for refiners to file reports with will be allocated to 71 REAP projects in Minnesota, with the
the CEC on planned and unplanned maintenance, in addition to goal of enabling greater access for small agribusiness owners
giving CEC the authority to impose penalties from refiners that to energy efficient power distribution and renewable electric-
earn more than a "reasonable" profit margin. ity generation.
By Chris Knight Individual grants range from nearly $11,000 to $10mn, with
the largest recipient being midcontinent-based fuel retailer

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INDUSTRY NEWS

Kwik Trip, who will receive dispensers for E15 and B20 biofuel short after a single compliance year could result in shortfalls
blends along with associated tankage at 60 fueling stations. in cellulosic biofuel in future years if obligated parties alter
The USDA previously announced funding for similar projects future behavior through delaying acquisition of cellulosic bio-
in January and April. fuel or cellulosic RINs based on the prospective expectation of
By Matthew Cope subsequent waivers,” EPA said.
While the dispute centers around EPA’s requirements for
AFPM asks court to ease US cellulosic mandate 2023, cellulosic biofuel blending obligations set by the agency
An oil refining trade group is asking a federal court to force for 2024 and 2025 are even more ambitious. The agency de-
the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to ease cel- clined to comment.
lulosic biofuel blending obligations under the Renewable Fuel Separately, a federal court this week set a 1 November
Standard (RFS). hearing to consider the legality of EPA’s broader regulation
The American Fuel and Petrochemical Manufacturers that set RFS obligations for 2023-2025. Environmental and oil
(AFPM) in a lawsuit filed Thursday asked the US District Court groups have sued for distinct reasons.
for the District of Columbia to require EPA to both lower By Cole Martin
cellulosic biofuel requirements for the 2023 compliance year
and to make available special cellulosic waiver credits to ease Oregon sees growing LCFS credit bank ahead
compliance for obligated parties. The group argues that the Oregon regulators anticipate growing low-carbon fuel standard
agency has a “nondiscretionary duty” to act because of lower- (LCFS) credit reserves for at least two years as renewable die-
than-expected supply of cellulosic biofuels last year. sel consumption overwhelms falling petroleum demand.
EPA sets annual RFS volumes for blending cellulosic biofuels Use of deficit-generating petroleum fuels was slowing this
— as well as biomass-based diesel, advanced and conventional year as renewable alternative consumption soared beyond
biofuels — into the petroleum fuel supply. Obligated par- initial estimates. The combination has begun building up credit
ties comply by blending biofuels themselves or by purchasing reserves despite tougher targets that regulators set just two
renewable identification number (RIN) credits from those who years ago.
do. But supply of cellulosic biofuels, which includes cellulosic The outlook illustrates again how swiftly the production of
ethanol and certain types of biogas, has been far more sparse US renewable diesel has both assisted road fuel decarboniza-
than Congress hoped when it first created the program. tion on the west coast and undermined the incentive programs
AFPM, which has long cast the RFS as burdensome for refin- that help drive a broader array of technologies to accomplish
ers and costly for consumers, had already made clear its intent those goals. Oregon Clean Fuels Program credit prices have
to sue. Earlier this week, a separate DC court granted the slumped from more than $161.50/metric tonne a year ago and
group’s request to pause a related case involving EPA’s denial $90/t in January to trade at $30/t this week.
of an AFPM petition to adjust cellulosic requirements after the Gasoline consumption is expected to fall by 1.1pc from the
group alluded to “a soon-to-be-filed complaint.” previous year in 2024 and another 0.5pc in 2025 under annual
In that formal petition to the agency late last year, AFPM estimates required as part of the Clean Fuels Program. Total
said that EPA’s “aspirational” cellulosic blend requirements diesel would fall by 4.6pc in 2024 before rising by 0.3pc in
for 2023 would exceed actual production, leaving obligated 2025.
parties with an “unachievable mandate.” The group asked EPA Renewable diesel use had already exceeded initial fore-
to reduce blending obligations to a level consistent with actual casts for the year that the state Department of Environmental
production and issue cellulosic waiver credits, which refiners Quality and Department of Transportation will publish at the
can purchase directly from EPA at a fixed price. beginning of October, staff said.
But EPA denied the petition, taking issue with some of AF- Oregon's last forecast, based on 2022 data, estimated
PM’s supply estimates and arguing that obligated parties could renewable diesel use would rise to 84.5mn USG this year. The
comply with 2023 requirements by using unused D3 cellulosic state used 56.5mn USG just in the first quarter — about two
RINs from the prior year or carrying over a shortfall to 2024. thirds of that volume.
“Further, issuing a waiver when market production falls LCFS programs require yearly reductions to transportation

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INDUSTRY NEWS

fuel carbon intensity. Higher-carbon fuels that exceed these including electrification, energy efficiency, and carbon storage
annual limits incur deficits that suppliers must offset with — and promote private investment. The transportation and
credits generated from distributing to the market approved, industrial sector, electric grid, and buildings are some of the
lower-carbon alternatives. proposed areas for investment.
Oregon has a rulemaking process underway to update Other areas of expenditure could include mitigating energy
carbon modeling and verification requirements among other, costs for consumers that could arise from the implementation
more technical changes to the program. The state will not of NYCI and other climate projects. The framework mandates
expand the rulemaking to contemplate new targets or restric- that at least 35-40pc of investments benefit disadvantaged
tions of fuel supplies, staff said earlier this week. But Oregon communities.
could consider a new rulemaking if necessary, staff added. Funds are expected to come from the program’s auctions,
The state will post a draft forecast for review on 5 Septem- which will be the main way the state will distribute allow-
ber for comment until 20 September. Statute requires publica- ances.
tion of the forecast on 1 October. New York aims to achieve a 40pc reduction in GHG emis-
By Elliott Blackburn sions from 1990 levels by 2030 and an 85pc reduction by 2050.
But regulators earlier this year said that the emissions trading
New York to release GHG market rules by Dec program will not be enough to fulfill those goals.
New York regulators expect to issue draft rules for the state’s Second quarter RGGI data shows New York power plants
economy-wide carbon market before the end of the year. accounted for the largest share of CO2 emissions among the 10
There is still no clear timeline over when the implementa- participating states, at about 7mn short tons (st), up by nearly
tion of New York’s cap-and-invest program (NYCI) will begin, 15pc from the year prior.
but the draft rules will be released “later this year”, regula- By Ida Balakrishna
tors said Thursday during a webinar on potential spending of
allowance auction revenue. ACBL sets upper Mississippi closure schedule
Regulators “envision appropriations and spending of NYCI Major barge carrier American Commercial Barge Line (ACBL)
proceeds to begin in the next fiscal year, which starts April this week issued tentative dates for final loadings before the
2025 and runs through March 2026”, said Vanessa Ulmer, senior upper Mississippi River closes for the winter.
advisor at the New York State Energy Research and Develop- The final loading date for Houston shipments to Dubuque,
ment Authority (NYSERDA), one of the agencies working on the Iowa, through St Paul, Minnesota, will be 26 September. Hous-
market rules. ton vessels with a stop between Louisiana, Missouri, through
NYCI has been in the works since the end of 2022, and Clinton, Iowa, will have their final loading date on 10 October.
state officials have said they intend to launch it in January St Louis, Missouri, vessels heading north to Dubuque
2025, despite not having a clear timeline for when the draft through St Paul must leave before 22 October, and vessels
regulations will be released. stopping between Louisiana, Missouri, or Clinton, Iowa must
The program, once implemented, will set an annual GHG leave before 5 November.
emissions cap for much of the economy. Regulated companies Final southbound departure dates for vessels from St Paul
will be able to buy allowances to fulfill their obligations if and Dubuque will be 24 November and 1 December, respec-
they are unable to directly reduce their own emissions. The tively. Vessels in Clinton must begin moving south by 8 Decem-
market likely will cover industrial facilities, fuel suppliers, ber. Crews need 10 days to prepare and unload barges, ACBL
and waste sources such as landfills and combustion facilities. said, which added that dates may be pushed forward or back
It is not clear whether power plants will be included as they depending on operating conditions and weather.
are already covered by the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative Other barge carriers are expected to release final loading
(RGGI) CO2 cap-and-trade program. dates in the coming weeks, along with the US Army Corps of
Regulators from NYSERDA and the Department of Environ- Engineers official upper Mississippi River closure date. The up-
mental Conservation outlined a framework of investment and per Mississippi River officially closed on 3 December last winter
allocation of funds raised by NYCI during the webinar. Those and reopened around 12 March.
funds can be used for GHG emissions-reduction projects — By Meghan Yoyotte

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Argus US Products Issue 24-157 | Friday 16 August 2024

INDUSTRY NEWS

Mexico’s fuel tax deductions steady deaths of five workers.

Mexico’s finance ministry this week maintained a deduction A separate explosion at the Nohoch-A offshore platform in
from the fuel excise tax (IEPS) for gasoline, while keeping the July left three workers dead, and disrupted production in the
diesel deduction at zero, despite US retail prices hitting multi- oil cluster for several days.
month lows. The numerous injuries and fatalities in Pemex installations
The tax deduction for regular gasoline declined by a nomi- have hurt the company’s credit profile, Fitch Ratings said in a
nal 0.5pc to Ps0.7833/l (15.9¢/USG), down from Ps0.7869/l the report this week. Fitch rates Pemex its lowest score of five
previous week. on its employee wellbeing metric, the worst score of any
Diesel’s tax deduction remained at zero for a fifth con- Latin American oil company.
secutive week, while the finance ministry has not subsidized By Édgar Sígler
premium gasoline since mid-October.
These deductions will be in effect from 17-23 August. Russia inward focus for diesel rattles Brazil
Lower tax deductions lead to higher final prices for con- Brazilian importers are contending with a sudden drop in the
sumers but increase government tax revenue. The national volume of diesel offered by Russian refiners, who are seeking
average retail price for regular gasoline surpassed the Ps24/l to build domestic inventories before returning to international
barrier for the first time on 29 July and has remained above markets.
that level since then. Part of the drop in diesel cargoes available to buyers in
The finance ministry uses a two-week window of interna- Brazil and elsewhere is related to technical problems at the
tional prices to set weekly deductions. 240,000 b/d Mozyr refinery — a Belarusian unit that supplies
In the US, retail fuel prices continued their downward part of the Russian market. In Russia, the expectation is that
trend in the week ended 12 August. Average retail prices for maintenance at Mozyr will last at least until the end of Sep-
gasoline fell by 3.4¢/USG to $3.41/USG, its lowest since 11 tember. Until then, Russian refiners will try to direct supplies
March, when prices averaged $3.38/USG, according to Energy to the domestic market.
Information Administration data. The drop in available volumes has contributed to an
Similarly, US average diesel prices declined by 5.1¢/USG to increase in the price of cargoes offered to Brazil. Last week,
$3.70/USG in the same week, its lowest point since 10 June, the Argus indicator for diesel of Russian origin on a dap Brazil
when prices were $3.66/USG, the same data show. basis reached a three-month high for landings at both points
By Antonio Gozain of the Brazilian coast. The indicator for ports in the south and
southeast was 6.5¢/USG below October Nymex and offers for
Pemex's 2023 fatality index worst since 2012 delivery to northern and northeastern ports closed the week
Mexican state-owned oil company Pemex registered the deaths at 10¢/USG below the reference contract.
of 19 workers in its installations last year, hit by multiple ac- The loading windows for August are closed and few refin-
cidents in its upstream and downstream operations. ers are presenting volumes to Brazilian buyers, according to
Pemex recorded the deaths of 11 workers on the job in importers. Some volumes offered from Russia are being sent
2023, plus nine contractors who died performing tasks for the to Turkey, from where volumes can be redirected to other
state company, according to the Pemex 2023 sustainability countries, according to market participants.
report released this week. The recent price increase took place after a similar move-
For Pemex workers, the fatality index, which calculates the ment in June-July, when Russian refiners sought to capital-
number of fatalities for every 100mn hours worked, reached ize on their market-leading position by expanding margins in
3.19 last year, the highest since 2012, according to the report. negotiations with Brazil.
The index for contractors was 3.11, a 28pc decline compared In July, 76.5pc of the 1.24mn m³ (259,980 b/d) of diesel
with the previous year. imported into Brazil came from Russia, according to trade min-
The company had nine accidents in which at least one istry data. The US accounted for 23.5pc of the volume.
person died last year. The deadliest was in February when fire Russia/US gap narrows
broke out in drilling equipment in Tuzandepelt and led to the The price difference between cargo from Russia and the US

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Argus US Products Issue 24-157 | Friday 16 August 2024

INDUSTRY NEWS

has narrowed steadily. Brazilian buyers are struggling to find Effect on ports
Russian diesel cargoes with discounts around 15-20¢/USG, as Less diesel arrived at Brazilian ports in the first half of August
was common last year. In the same period, US Gulf coast die- and distributors began to intensify quotations for ex-port land
sel was being offered with premiums between 8-10¢/USG. terminal product.
Brazilian importers estimate that the difference between Supply via contract brings a certain margin of time for buy-
cargoes from Russia and other countries, especially the US, ers to negotiate volumes at more competitive prices, which is
should be at least 5¢/USG to favor the origination of cargoes important when sales offers exceed the R100/m³ ($18.28/m³)
from the Baltic Sea. Shorter freight times, negotiations on mark.
payment deadlines and the agility of loading in the US have Buyer's bids are far from that, closer to parity in relation
helped maintain Brazilian buyers' interest in the US product. to their operations in the southeastern states of Sao Paulo and
Around 1.2mn m³ of foreign diesel will arrive at Brazilian Parana and the northeastern ports of Sao Luis and Suape.
ports in August, according to estimates from energy analytics Demand for imported diesel in the northeast has grown in
firm Vortexa. Brazil imported 1.31mn m³ in August 2023 the past weeks, prompting a few importers in the region to
, according to trade ministry data. Of the volumes arriving present offers, according to market participants. Some choose
this month, almost 69pc should come from Russia, 16pc from to hold volumes in anticipation of progress in the negotiations
the US, and the remaining 15pc from Oman — an uncommon at high premiums in Maranhao and Pernambuco states.
alternative supply source. By Gabrielle Moreira and Elvira Chukmarova

ANNOUNCEMENT

Consultation to change NYH B99 minimum trade

volume
Argus is proposing to adjust the minimum volume for New York
Harbor prompt B99 barge trades to better align with market
practices. Argus Methanol
Under this proposal, Argus would change the minimum vol-
ume for a transaction to be considered in the pricing assess-
Forum
ment from 10,000 bl to 1,000 bl. September 9 -11, 2024
Argus will be accepting comments on this change through Houston, Texas, US
19 August. To discuss this proposal, please contact Thomas
Dwyer at [email protected] or +1 713 429 6318. Meet the biggest buyers and sellers ahead
Formal comments should be marked as such and may be of contracting season at the industry’s
submitted via e-mail to [email protected] or leading methanol event
by post to Thomas Dwyer, at Argus Media, 2929 Allen Parkway, Book
Suite 1900, Houston, Texas 77019 and received by 19 August. your team
to save up to
Please note, formal comments will be published after 20% off the
the consultation period unless confidentiality is specifically standard
rate
requested.

www.argusmedia.com/methanol-forum

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Argus US Products Issue 24-157 | Friday 16 August 2024

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