C11u• r£.

K 2 • l"robJt<mi , nJ I J~-vu<-hcst,- 29

thcn:fort CJJndu,lcs th.H the b'1'Clllcr th" nmdcty the lo"'cr the .anthmcdc \Civr~. llut it
I) i1uhc r..1tit_"C:W:ll,lc th;n the rl'1:1t1on b ful'lultuus or C\c.n .!i))Un11u.s. lf. htt...,C'ltr. thr
in,'C>tig,iur luJ hn..,th<>it<d the rel,11iun on the ba~i• of thco<)·, he o, ;he c,-1ultl
h:I\ c gre-ucr coniiJcncc in th!! results. hwt1~1:ibr:1tors who Jo noc hntOChc:Sir..c nl;niun~
in ~d,'mcc Jo not. in ~hon. gin• the facts a chancc to P"°''c o r d'ispro1--e .mrthing.
The -aurds prv-:, and disprot1e are not to be t1kcn here in chcir litc:r.il sense-. A hyp,th-
csu is nc,-cr rallr pro,-cd or disproved. 1o be m ore accur.nc ,.-e should prob,bly ""Y
som,thin= llkt: The weight 0£ evidence is on the side of the hypothesis. or the
..,ighx of the c,tjd,nce C35tS doubt on the hi'Potbe<is. Braith"':lin: ( IYjj/19'16, p. 14)
!.&JS:

11,u... th,: C'ltlJ"Htic-.al t'\'hlClll'e ur its hbt'IUl('C 111.wcr pro, cJ the hn1txhC'., U: in
i;UIUhlc C.1,~ ~C' hl.J,f ~)' Ih.11 Jt tit,1h'i.tl11·1 (.i1,1lit·'i ~,fdcJ) t.hc hn,uth(Sl>,, mc:antn~
l,)' th,~ tt,:.11 1hc t'\"hlc1wc nrnkt-s ii' N:"sum1hlf.! 10 lltc.'t'l•f the hypothni~ lt1.11 11
Oc\cf p-,,~d ,t.c hn••rh....,~ in 1hu SCUlii; LluH tl1c hn-.otbciiu b ~ k,g-.c~1 ron-.c~
qU'CRl:'C' 41( the: c,, .lcn(lC.

Thi. u.c uf tho hypnthe;;i< ;, ~lrullor to pbyln~ a gam• of dunce. ' lb< rules of ,ho
pm!! 2r~ x1 up "J.nJ l,i;:~ :tre 1111,Jc lu :klv11nce. Ont' nnnul ch:.mgc Ult ruls:s .ifitt :m
outrom,:. ncn.ha ~n om: dunHC one's hcu ofter pbnng them. One c.a.nnut throw
1.hc dJC't: tint .anJ then hc.·t. Thill wuultl nm be i-r.iir: Simduly. 1f one g,nhcn lt.11.&
t;f't ,nJ thrn '-t-l«·n ,1 lLatulll 1uul \ 'Ulllcti m II cond,t~lon nn the 1-a\lS of the ,b1uu1.
une lt2.> \lul.ncJ tfo: ruJ~ o l' the.• t1dl•1ullie f.:;u nc. TI1c g.1111,: b nut •fair• lt\"ClU.)(' the
in\l'.\n;::.111;,f c-;30 c,h,1)· c,.";111111111,.e cnt, 1i.1y, twp lij;:-111liomc n:btivn) out u( ri, c '"'"""•
\\1ut U\UJlly h.1p1,tic:n\ to the other ,hr!!C. ll' 1hn1 1,hcy im: furguttcn. l n .. -r.ur· br.lUIC,
t'\et')' Ihm" uf thC' Ju.c I.) euuntcd, In the !IICnsr tl111t o nC' d thcr "'m,. ur Jo,n nuc " In
un c.he: b.bi; of the tmtcnutc ,~f c11t'h tbl'()w.
Hrpotbcscs dirttt inl1uiry. As D:1rwln poi11trd out o,·cr :i hundred yetrS lb'"''·
••bsen"J.tfon.s h;a,,: to he for cir ng;iinst some view if they arc co IX' of ln)' use.
I fyp•,lltescts i:n<-orponce. :1..;pccrs or tho thcQry under test in tCSQblc or ncu~c:s:t:ahJe
10n11. E.arlicr. m c~mplc of rcinf(ll·cemcm theory "~u gh·m m • 'h1,·h 1o t..1Llt
h)t)t}thC>cS -.ere Jc.:lm;cd fnm1 the f:;t'.l!c.r.tl w vhlcm. "lbc impomm.'C CJf rC\.,lp,i,.lng
tlu, ful14'ti,,n h(hn10thoc, mJ)' 1,c ~huwn hy !fC•ln!,! throu~i-h the h.atL ,'4.,.,r 1n,J tblng
., 1.hcury 1h,u 1~ \Cf)' il,ff1"ulr. i •r pc rh~lp! iu111qli'\lhlc, C•1 1c-.;t. Frc-uJ',- thef'>ry o( an..,-irt}'
includes the ron\Cruti. uf rl'prcssion. By rcpn:s~ion. FrcuJ mc-.un the fon-ing of
u.ructtpublc iJei~ d("cp into tl1e: unconsdous. In •Jrdcr tu test the freudi111 theory of
.uuitq· it is n«c-.;:iry t.o deduce rclucicms suggt~ tccl t,y the Lheory. These dt.-ducdons
',\·ill of row:sc, lul'i: to incl.ode chc repression notion, "h1ch includes the corurrucr. of
th• unconscious. Bypatheses con be formul,ccd using these ronsmicu; in order
u, test th• theo~o they luwe m be so fu,cmulatcd. Bot testing them is mother. mon,
difficult matter because of tlle enrem• dif1iculty of defining !"'111$ ,uch "' "repres•
sion • and "'unconscious~ w fha1 they c.in be meiasurcJ, To t-hc pn:s<nt~ no one has
tuca:Ncd in tldining t:ht!"Sc two t 1im~1n1,·1s without .scrioui ly Jc.-5».r1ing frum the
origin:.al frcudl.a.a mc:.anlng 1111d us:ag,::, i lrputbcse:s. then• .uc imporr.ant ltriJgcs
bc:c" r.'.c.n ch('(tr')' ~nd cm111rie11I inquiry.
Prob len, s, Va l ue s, and Definition s
1h ell.tit) funht-t 1hc n.a.ttn,c uf ruoblcm, ~uJ h) j">tl,c~ •"o or three commo n
crrurs "HI no'-' ~ d11>Cu.q t'J.. FiDt.. sctc:ntihc prublt>:1.tb ve not monil m d c.tltit-'131
quonons: Are punlm e disc11>llruary measures bad for chlld,,n; Should :m organilJl-
tioa s lad«slup be, demucradci \"\l1>t is the 1,._.., ""Y m 1e,ch rollege students? ·.l b
ask lh~ quc.-scioru is 10 a.,L: ,11Juc .imt jutlgm«...-nhll 11u0Urms that .scir.ncc cannot
JO.Nrr;. ,\ lin)' '(')-c~ll~I h)rpc'>thi:$~ ;ire nnt hypMhdO .n ;ill. For in~h1ncc: The
~,n.,U-~'TOUJI ltt\."thod uf tNthing 15 better t.lUI.D l.br lrt.'tun: metJ,od.. ·nus
is i1 ,·ulue
~1.Jtcm.::m.; n ,~ a.n a.rode or foich Jr1d 1H:H II h)11i1.1tho.i,, If i1 \A, ere pO!-\:ihlc to )111\ltc u
rel.mun bct\'·1."t'n the ,~:irb,hlt..as. and i( u ,, ere pnss1Mc tu define the: ,•:.eri:al.ilts so :is tO
pc.rmn tcsnng chc rcfacion, then we might h.i, e 3 hnx)tho1s. But there as no way ro
~ , ..~Jue qtu:srions .sc:icnti6ca.lly.
,-\ quk½ ;1:nd rd·:nfrcly easy way to detect \~ue q~~ons 2n:d St.lttmc.nts is to
look for wnrd" ~-urh .is 1-bo11/;I. aught, hrrtcr tbJn (instead ufgrtJtcr tA111). Also. oa C CJIO
1061: for ~inul:ar wnrrb thllt i.n dinnc cuJrunl or r,crson:a.l fuJfnm•nt:s l"lr prcfc.n:.nt:CS
lbiJ~). ,-.alue M.atcrnrnl3, howcn•r. 11rc trid·\'. \ \l1ilc .a •,ltouM .. ,tit,·mmt is obvi•
'"'"h1 i ,.,Jur ,-i.nrmcnt. ,:c:-rt.ain other Limh ;.,( ,,lillt.mcHt~ :arc 001 $0 oh\iOui.. 'li&ka
t.hc ~t:iltcn11.·nt: .\u1h, 1nf'.uiin nwthodtt o( h::tdung le.hi 10 5.-1or lcairrunN, I lc1•e Lhcre
i, 2 rd..11~11n. Hut chc ,1.11cnu:1n r.ul~ .a.,, l '4·1<n11fic hnlr1t.h ni'i l.K;'C11USC i1. u,cs l\\'U
,--;iluc ~pn:,...lun, ,,r " Qrtl~...;a uthuriu.ri.Jn mcduxb (If tc:aching• ro.J .. j:X.K.1r learning/'
ncithd' of "hlch <"Jn he ,lcfincd for mc,:asurCJ.ttr:nt pUr-(kb<S ~icbout Jekting the.
v..onli uutbunrJn.111 :mJ p,t,r}
Od1t'.r lm,..11 uf )n:ltc:mc:nu thlt art!' not t,n,. ,th<-Scs. or :an: ,,,.JlfJr o nes, 11rc
frc,luentt) fonuul:at(',I, c,11oCd;all)' in e:JuCJllun., C..ttn"liJ(r, fur itb11.nu.'e: 11u, cxm.'
n.irrKulum n .i.n cnndunµ c.,1>crit'J'll~. A11111l1cr "11;1.U:mcm t)l)r.• u~•tl tu111 frl'ql ac:ntl)',
i\ , .tgue p:rrwr.1li,.1t IL•m lk.1th11g ,k1II\ """ he idt nt Ifie.I 1n lhe ,e1.'(u11d ~r;1dc:; 111u R·•>:ll
of the: un111uc lluln hlu;al H ,c..~I f-rc.1ll1.uJ, ,n: ~•n.:ju,ln:<' h rd:nctl to c•wt.-ln pc.•rMm~1lity
tr.au·"
Annt1Lt:r n,,111mon 1.h.'foct uf pruMllm ~t.atcmnlb ot'tcn 11(1n1r,, m Joctonl thc.:$U.~:
1hc- li~tin!t t.if IHC"lh<w:lulo!,-iC"JI 11oi11b or ·1•mLlcrn,. :I\ ... ut,1,rvhh:t11~. mcthlH.I• ·n,r!)C
,11~1'1l~I 1•uintl- h:.oe t"o ch~r.1ncriMi~ lhlt moke thl'm cJSf to ,l'c tect (I) they nrc
n•;t ~uh...t-.rnlJV<' l'roblcrn, t.h:.at :r-,,ring from d,c hJ,ii" proMr:.m: :.1m.l (2) il11.•y reline
10 1a·hn14ut"- • ,r mcthod11 u( ~.11111•ll11~. mn"-lrint,:-, ur ,;n:.11)'7.,in~. l Ml')I ~re U!tu,111)'
n,;i 1n 1111o linn (nnn l1m f;llht-r CoUIJtfl ~ul'.h '411rJI\ .111 tnr, 1lrtm,11wr. lllhl.fll1't. "'Ji1
Jrtrnmnt 1hc- rd1.&l11luy 11( 1hr in,1n11ncnt~ u~J in 1hi~ r~ln h: •-'JUu1, 1hc 1ilg11ili•
unu: of 1h~ ~hffcrcncc" IK.'t\4. Ccn 1hc: mc:.an,.· or • 'fo "\'~"" pur111~ 11t r,r ndom
to the <'~Jtt:nmcntJI groul"'• arc tumpJcs c,( Lbb t1thuli:n notiuti of pn.,I ,le.ms ond
subprtil1lem<.
I

: ,,\n .1.lrrJO't clahtr c-.l.'\C n( the tt~ .,fthl· ,..,,rJ J1rubenrE1:J• n. lhc ..UtffllOJtJiCllmcdma: hc.ul1 amc,nK
cJlll."..t1•:,": The lttrurc tul,'.'ll"M..11,l 1~ • utbnnun.111. 11,n "«nu tn mun 1h.o11 the ~P"!'ltr tlo o nnt hkc
1hc l«tUIT mcd1•"'I 11ml n td:m, •a:- 1h.o1t 1t ts h,d. t.ihn,J.,,1), unc- u( tht. rt,.,..,
dil"l."tn·c w.t)'!I, ro 1,.1•ltl•
nt,e .1 Cc.l('hCT" t" '-')' lh.11 t~hcr i.. ,unJu,nul"'..1n. •
 C11, 1•1r1~w. 2 • l'M,lcnM ~nJ I l)l•nthC"d Jl

G e neralit y and S p ecific i ty o f Pro ble nls

and H y p o th eses
One da0it'11lt)• dut I rc..~rchcr u~mlly t lll'OUfHL'1', .an•f llu1 .aluu.~ l .111 ~1udt"nb
\! Or-ling nn O tht..">IS 1inJ J.JlllO}'IUJl• i'i illt' l{Ullct:alar .auJ ~1k'c1ht.•11r of ,,mbkm, .1nJ
hn,odu.•~-.,:. tf the I"" 1hlem 1.; ltMI ~cncrnl. ii i'i 111\41 h•.l \ .t~rtu: co lJt" C~tcd. "'l11u.,. ll b
lC.i~nufic,1II)' u,dt». c\cn cl111ugh JI 1111,y lie hucn:-.)llfll! 10 rr;ul. l•ruhlrnu md
h}polh~ ch:at :ue 100 f:Cncul or l• 10 \!ague arc ,mrnmon. r11r CXllmplc: Crcathur is
., function uf tl1t ~cJf•lc:tUJ.ftt.•Uiun 1;1( 1hc hulh1Ju.al: Dcrnoc:r.nic tJut·:1Uon roh:;inccs
,oci.JI le:anung :uul Cltucn,lup~ 1\uth• 1111 t;11'fanl.!i111 in 1h( cuHc:g~ dh.,room inh1b1u thr
crad,·t i11ug10..ttlu11 c,f ,1ull,·no. 'l 'ltc.'ie 11rc lntcrl~ling po•lil'1llb l•ut. m thdr llfo.c:fll
form,. .ere \\ur)c clun o~lC'S, <rri<.,cmitll'~1II)' I1ccausc the.,~annC1r be tbtcd :ind bec-.1u~
they t:" com: 1hc ,punuu) .h~unancl.! Ih,11 the)' :&re hn>i.ch~ rh.11 eJn ..wmttl,w· lie
lc.;,uJ..
Tcnn.s !'!ouch 11s ·c~;1u\·1ty.• .. !iclf~nuu:11i1..1tir.m/" •Jc:moer.1<')·.• ..11uthonuri.ini).m:
.mJ I.he llkc h:nc. at tl1c prl.'.M:rn 1irnc ;.t lcli!-i1, no :hkqu.&h: 1:1npiric.al n:.f...-u:nb.' It ii
qun-t true lh;a1 \lt: cJn Jchne ,1•r,11i:.:itJ, s1,y, in .l lhnltt..-d 14.ay by ,1,rcifyang Olll:' ut l\lU
crt'-JU\ lty 10-IS. ·nu.,, uur tJC g lrg.irim,ltC IU'tH.'Cdurc. SuU. ,n :,o tkmtg. ""c: run m,., n.Ji
fJf gcning fJr 2wi1y (rum chc tJri~inal term tutJ its me-.aning. 11,is i!S p:aniculJrly cruc
\I hen w1.• ipcuk uf ,:ani"uc c: n."iltjviry. \Ve ~lrL', 1,( cuunc. CJftcn '41IJtng to ;an'f.•pl the n ..l:
in orltcr to lM: )bk to inH~or,rritc i1111M1·t~11tl pmhfcm). Yet J rcnn Ma: •dcmu(T.191• i"+
.1lmrnt hopdc..~, to Jchnc. E\·c.n wht'n \\C: tlo Jcfinc n. \le o(u:.n find 1tic hJ\C
&.~tro~·cd ic.11, on~-uul -m1.-;;aning. An c•uh tlll\(li11g c:Xt'C"ption o, th1.) ~tJtement is DollenS
{l~JNOJ tldinitinn ;aml 111c.i,urcmc:·11t 0( 1'clcmoc.Tt1C)',• \·\"t "'II t:~.unim: hot.h in ~uh'I(' ..
qucni ch:.1p1~rs.
·n11! other C.A1rc:-.rnt I.> thfl grc~I\ tpccUidt~'· l::,·cf) ..ruJc.ni h.1s he.an! th:;11 ll I\
nc..'t..c'\-t~f')' 10 1urrtm J,mn 1m,lil1.•nLi l'CJ worbl1le ,i,c-. Thi) t-. tnac-. Uut. un(t,nu•
nJ1dy. "e cJn 1J"', n.un,u the. pn•hlc.111 out ur c,.i,1cm.c. In gr:ncr.d. 1he mHrt' ~1«.ric
tht" pr,,f,lt>m ••r "n~1tht.."'°i,-.. the dearer i:o il'i (L'<rrilJnQ i.mp1i~ll•Jtt(. Uut 1rhiJ11tr UU)' be
du: prit'C' \\ C' fl••r• Rc-..cJrc: her" c.-.i1111t 1l h:mdJc prulilcuis 111.11 Jr( too lin,iJ lJC<"JU'C
tht)' u:rul 10 1JC 10b \ J,1..rue fur 1,lct1u,11c rcswc-h open non>,. On the o ther lund. in
1hr:1r 1eJI t!, cut Jown the (lml1lc:•ms ~u wu1l:il,le \J1e or I•> find .a wurkllhlc problem.
thP.!)' UU)' t.1111 1he life out ol' 1L ''f11cy lllllf mah h u n 1.11 or il\Con,ct.tuc.nd.al. ,\ the.\lllo.
fur in-.t:mn:, on the 111mplc reLulon hr1w1.:C:n 1hc \ J.k't:!tl c,( n;.1,lmJ,: .anJ ~l:r.t• u( f)J'('.
whllt.~i111p,1n:.1n1 .aml m,> 11< t'\\"11 i11u.·,·~·s1 Ing, l'i lhU 1h11, 1,, 11,d( for a tlon• u,1 ...,u,fr.
"l'ht ,foccnr.al Mlhltm "c,uht need t• I txp:'m~I nn the UlpJC I')' .il<o kf."tnmntn,dan!! a
t.Y,mp.ui-...Jn l~~~.:en µ~nll..-n 1nh.l c.·onsldt.•1·1111:t , .1riJblo ,o<h .•, n1lt11r~ .rn1I f.111111,,

, \hho-.uih 111.&n) ,1udJo <•r ,uthc.."'1t11ri,111ism h,M~111:1:u d, ,tu: •1th i.t'""'"kr.it.1-e ''"'-"''"'' n h Jc:,ul,1(ul
r!l.11 • -c Ln••w •Jut ,11,1thl,nueu111"" 1n d iet d:l'-'ri,11111 mr;in"' lior 1n4unc.c-. ,1.n ,c..1111111 of• lachcr
d!,t u ,utfM.mllfJUll ,n ,,:nc c-h.~rr.w,m m:1y nr1r he 11utllnnt.1rJn m ~noc.hct d,.n rnnm. l"\c ,1Hc;c:J
.f.n,..,,,;ru~ WluHor CU1,brtcJ tJ,, •Jne tt'Ul:'11'1.'~ 11,a,• ._.., ..n 1..- r :tl!,,.,t 1u.ul,.u·n.1n_.n ,r ..,h,111-9 1,, .a.n-
uthcr t~.achc:r. Such d~uo~· .s uor rhc ..ruff , 1•i1c;1cnL--e,
- 31 P ART O sE • The ~l'r\Oge :ind Appro.1d1ufScicntt

b:adq;round. The resot:ard 1~r c(1uld 1,n,«ibJy e,;-p:uui th~ n-udy lO lei(.-.\:- 2t )C'-·t.'lS or
ilfumin:uion .1ml font type.~. 1ho gre11 :.1M:"cificiry is puh-aJlS :t wonc: dmgcr thin tno
grt'3l gf'ncr:thty. The rcs:e-11rchcr 11u~1 he !lble to :ll1S\I.---U the SJ)f!cific question but will
not he: able to ~a11;111,li-,,e the finding to other sirUJtiorts or groups o( people. At'iln)'
r.1tc:. wmc kinJ nf cnmprrunl\,c mmu he m.adc ht.a" een geneuli[}· .1.nd s-pcdticity. The
.1l,ihtr u, rn.:Jkc Su("h comprnmiires ttTecmely is·t (unction 1µnly of npcricncc- and
5Y.1nlr of criual ~,uJy vf r~t:Ur ch pmhlcms.
I krc u~ a few a:unplcs co111n ~ting r~.1n:h prohl~ms ~t.1tcJ .u 100 ~cnct:11 or
100 •1><:rific

I . 'luu G<'l\crah T ht~1·c ,m.: gcn,l<'r d1ffc:rctu..'C'S" tn JrJmc- vl:i)'IDJ.

li'IU Sr<afi<: "fonuny's st..·orc: "111 be 10 poi_ots hi!!ber thu, ~rol~ on
"Ji:11·is l'rofos,ion•I Gol,L
Aliou1 Right ViJco br,nnc pbJ1n~ ~-ill mul, in• higher 1nnsfcr of
lc,i-cning for boy, rh,n girls.
2. Too G,ncr,l: People cnn rad large-sire knc.rs faster th.m small-size
l1.:t1ers.
Too Spc<.,fic Seniors at Ouam: High School can n::ad !-I-point fonts
fustcrth1m 12-point foncr.
.<\l.,ot Right: /\ cump,mon ofthnc different font sizes :tnd ,iswl
m..1.1it)• on reading specd-md romprc.hen~on_

The M ul t iva riab le Nat u re of Bebavorial Research

and P robl ems
Until nov.· the- di..~.ssinn o f pmblems and hjpochcs.:s hl.S l,een hmitcd to n-ro "-:u:i•
:able:s,,: md !- \\·c ·must hasten to correct any impression thJt :,.>iJcb probltmS and
hypotheses u-e the aonn in bcba,•ioral research. Resean,he,s in psycbolo,n; sociol-
ogy. educ:atil)n, ~ml o ther behavioral sciences h:n-e ticcome k«nl_ya"--art" of the 1nul-
1i,·2ri.iblc. n2rure of be:h1wioral re.search_ Jn..,,:e.:ul t.lf -.:.t}';ng: I( p. t~n f· it i,; often
n\orc: :i.ppropri:atc ro say: lf p11 Pt, , .. , pi., then q; or. If p then q, un.:ier oonditions ,;
, , ;md ,.
An cnmple may dorlfy 1he point lru=d a( simpl)' <t>ring the hn,othe.<•-= lf
frus·mtinn., then :agg~don. i1 is more rulh--tlc to t'ct.'i'l~rnb,c U,~ nwlth"'Ullblc n;inarc
or
of the clcrcnnin;a.nts :m<l inllucnccs :l!!i-,l'fCS,iM~11us can Le Jont by s:iy-ing, for ex•
r:unple.: lfhigh in1dligl'.nce. miridli! t•lilii"-, ruJJc:. ~n~ frustrJtL.J, thaugpc:,Sion. Or; If
rrustr:mon, then 1ygrc.t.'i.irn1i undt•r the ronJnions of hit:h intdhgtncc. ntiddlc r ha°':i;,
.111d 11ulc, lru1etd o( one.,•, "e nvw h11\'C four .n . Ahhnu!,:h one phi.-nu1nc-1'n11 m,I)' lie
the mo>1 impon1n1 in determining or influ ..·ru:ing .a.nHlhcr phcnumc.·n,)n, 1t i,; unl ikcfy
or
th~, 1110!-l .,f the phcnumcnia h11ct~t lo hthJ\ ,orJI sc:icnti.!its :m~ ,tc1.em1inc.:.ll .!lim-
ply;, It b much more l1ki.:ly tl1.11 1hcy an.: tlcu:nnim:d mulripl)'• h h, rnu~.b more l.ikdy
.
 CnAPTER 2 • Prol,luus anJ U!l"'fflOCS 3l

th..u ajtpasion is 1hc result of sC\·crnl influences • ork-lng in <i'O mpla 'A--:1)'"5. ,\1ore-
q,·cr, ~;ttCSSJtrn icsclf h.ts multiple 1s1.ects.• There :lfr 1;1ftcr ~n. d:iffrTmt kinds of ai:-
.
l?rt!'l)IOn.
-
Prdltlcnb ;md hn~othcscs thU,'i huvc tn rcR1."l't 1hc Oh1hlv:ari:ablc (.•,·•m},4.'.\ity (Jr
11~)cho1u,!,,"1c.al. ~oloi:.'1nl, and ctl11c;11io1u l rc:1li1y. \ Ve ~m ull: nf nnc ,T 11ntl one .r,
c.-.fled.a.llt In the cul)' 1,:an t,f the l1i1 ,ok. Ho" C\'cr, h IHtt.t t he ,mJcr,.t()f)r,f 1h;ae l~:ha,·•
iorol rac.itth. "hich U"-t·,1 to hc.n tl1t11J~\ cxclu~hd)' unh::ari.1tc in 1B lppnueh, lu~ l..:-
1.·u nw mote lnd rncwc multh.ari;al.ilc. \Ve ba,·c purpo\'.t'l)' u,cJ the .,.,urJ ""muht\•:ui ..
:.hie• ln~cud o( '"111ult.h•;iri11c" fr., un im1M111:1m ft'taion. ThuHlt11n,lly. '"fnuhhi.u·i.oc"'
srudi~ ue ch.enc ,fou h.a,·c murc t ha1: o ne y \'lrilhlc ~u1-.I one or tUure x ,11ri11hl.:,.
\\'hen Vlt :-pc.1k uf one J' :m~I mort th:10 one ,l' ,~Jn:ahle. \Ii c u.ie: the m,:.rc JJ11)n:tpria1c
t~ttU ""tnuhn.,f"l.,hlc .. tn make 1hc d isti11c.•tion. For~·• ..-:e. will 1tSC' •w\1 ..-....,'i::act• 11,1 in ..
diotc one x .mJ one J, ""t:ni\':lri:11c1 " ~n·ictly !ipc;al.:ing. :al'itl 11pplio. tu., . \\ ·c -.:ill M.,on
C.:OL-...unt~r rnulth--;iri.11~ <.'Onet1trlr,ns ,1ml prultlrnu. :\.nJ t:ar.cr J).tm o( the hook \\ JII he
C!\p«i:iUy t"Om."C'fned whh I mulci\\lri,nc :.1 ppruach :and ~mph:.his. 1-...or • de-..r i:~pl.ma-
tion a.n the Wffcrcnccs Lii:tu·ccn 111ultit:11n'ublr :1nJ 1,,.:J1i:·J1'111u ()CC' KJe1nb:aum. 1'up-
J'lC!r. :\ t ullcr. & Ni111m 1 I(rJi).

Conc lu di n g R e nt .a r k s: T h e Spec ia l P ower

of H ypo th eses
,,,w\'.~ Ill \'.
Om,: .....,,,\..tlu1\..> t , \.-,U 3' lhofl ,., .... Ulll l\'.'-\..,~U ' iu l'-";'l,\'..U" ta.. s,,.,..HV rc...-1 ilia,
tht)' ~tnu the im•c!rocip:nh·c i111.1gimuiun tm nc.-c..c<,..ml)'• .111d tl111 the job uf M:lcnc..~
and XH:.na6c tn\'csrigution 1> 10 dlwm'\:r llf.'W thini;i :an,I nu1 Ill Ltt.lJhor the uh,ifn.J$4
Some foci 1..h.n hnlothtj,t'~ arc olisolcte. Such ia1c.111ems 11rc ,1uite rw.s:lcaJ:ing. ·nu1·
mlsconsuu< th< purpo,c ofbyputhC>c;,
lr<".lD almost be ••id th,i the h)lKlthcsis is one of the most I"'" crful mols )'el in-
1·enrod m •thle,•o dependable knowledge. 1-\'e obs,,r,-., • pbcnolllffioo. ll'e specubto
on possible: C'.t.USc!s. Naru.rally. our culture bas answc.rs l'O accoun.t for most. 1lhe•
nomeru-nu.ny correct. many incorrect, many .a m.imJ.re of fan .md superstition.
nu.ny putt superstition . l.t is the: business o f scien tists to doubt mosr-cxplanations of
phenornen1- Such doubts a.re systemic.. Scientlm insist on subjcaing cxpJaru.tions of
pbe:11omen:1 IO controlled e:mpltinl testing-. ln order to do cb.is, lhey formulate the
c:xpL11utions into the0ries and hyp otheses. In f:ict. the til)lan,i:ions ore hypotheses.
Scie:ntim simply dl!'4,,:ipline t.he busln~s by writing systematic md ttsUhle hypothe-
ses. lf an t'xpl:anlticm c1mn<,1 he fornrnlmcd Im o a nisctble h}1"nho.is:. it 01, he. L"un•
sidc:rcd co bC" -1 mrt,phpical csrlan.n ion am.I th\L,; not 1tmc.ruhlc. cu '°~nnfit'. in\csli•
~1tion. t\s ~uch~ h is J 1&-ml,,ctl lJ)r )f.l'h:ntiMic 11s bc:lnt,: u( no intc.rc-'.\C_
-n ,~ p,.. ( I 1if hrp<•thr.)O go funht·r tlmu 1hh., hO'o\'C\ er.,\ hn.01ho 1, i, ~ r,rcdu:•
uo n. It ,.1ys th:11 if .r 1tC\.'T\JO., .r "ill gJso ott'l1r; th.1t is•., i.s 11r1;:c.hnc.·d frun, .r... If. d,c-n. x
• i'i 111-,hlc to UCC"Ut (,,gry), anJ it l~ ohscrvccl th.11:, :al..t, oc\·un (\'iJOO ron "1Jt11it.111dy),
1hc:n thc hrpolltc::)lS is 1.'Qnfinm:d ...ll1N IN more l)'-'"'crt'ul u,·ldCJKc dun ,olrnpl)t ub•
scn1ng. "it.hour f1.rctl1e1iun. the cnvurylng o( .r ilntl -,. lt i.s mnrc po,.c.r(uJ in chc
btu:.in~c.!-:;..mc: >en s-c J L.cu»c...J earlier. "'f lu: ~:i~nci,1 m.aL.-:~ .a tN:I t.lt:u ~ lcoHl.!t t u J'•
If, ill
.u\ ex,~rlmt:m, x JrK'S lc:ad 101, lhcn t'lnc h:;i~ ,,.·on the hc.L A pcN>n c:annot ju>I enter
the p mt at anr paint anJ pick a pcrhap5 fortuituus 1.'filnmon occurrent-c of.randy.
Gomes m, not plarcJ this "")' (•t la,;t in our rultutc). This p:rson must ploy
according to chc ru.Jcs.. aod -dx rules in scitrw.-e"2J"t! ntllde to rninimize error :md fulLi-
bilicy. Hn,ochc,cs uc p,n of me rules of the ;cicm:c game.
E\'."et1 v.-bcn hn,xnhcscs arc not ronfinned, they h.t\'c pc,"·cr. Ercn when J Jocs
not oo,·u y ,,.;th x. knowledge is .,,till .1d\'an1.·eJ4 r-;cptl\·c: lindin~fS arr sometimes as
irnponant g,s po:o,.itn-.: ones. ~nee 1hey reduce the- tO.W. unh-cn.c of ii,,.rnor.mcc and
so1m,:t:iu1...-s pouu up fn1hlul further b)rputhOd :and linc-i, of tm'Oiig1tic1n. /)ut tlrr ,r;..
<nW1 u/RllfJt ttll po1,ritv frvm 11tg111hv r.:#k114•t u11/ts1 hr or sht usa h_rp,<>tht.<rt. h ii;, ttf
course, J>OS)iblc to conduct rcs<..-arcb " 'itbout hn:,otbc:sc:s. p;inkul,u iy in cxpltJntnry
in\·es-rig:arions. Dur it is h:trd w roncri,·c modern scitn('C in 1111 its rigorcms gnd Jiscj-
plinc:d fcnility ,.-jthout the guiding light and pu,.-.,,. ofh)1>0th<-s=

C IIAl'TER SU ,'-1/'.IARV

I. Fomu)liittng the n;i\"Uf.h pmltlc10 ~ not an c,h)' u,k. 111c l'OC3rthrr 11o1tu't$
" ith a ~CJ,cr.11. diffmc,l. :11\,I v-.aguc nouon .;1.nd then t-,rn\luAI~· refiru,•,s it, Re..
,oc;arch prohlcms differ gro 1ly :and then~as no o ne nght "'JY10 s1~1c thu
prohlcm..
2. ·rnrcc crlttril o(, gvnd prul,lcm ind prohh:.n, Stlh:111r..r11
.1.. ·n,c 1uohlcin ~ht1u1d L,c ~IUbSCtl .iJ II rdJ1io11--.h1p l.t<t"- ct-n two or nwn:
\.tri.ihlc,..
b. ·inc proMcrn )huiald l;c put In t.hc fur,11 o( .a ~\UC"otlun.
c .. "111t' prublcm :r.tJttll\cnl ,houlJ iu1pl)' the l"'"'1t.1lldo t;( t!m1•irical
,~,tint:.
J. A hn,othesis is a roniecrunl s1:11cmcnt uf the rd~tionship bcN'tc.n '"'◄'I
o r more ,.1.1u.hl~. h is l"n 1n 1hc fonn ofa dcclJ:ntfrc sttte!m.t.'DL A crhc.rir.1
for • good hrpmh'-'>is is the"""'" .. (,) •nd (b) in criterfa of• good
fltolllc!IH~
.f. ltnr,un.tnt'c of pr0Mt111) 11nd hypothcs<'S
a.. h •~ a "·orl.:.ing in.Jln11m:11t uf Kiencc :anll .l ~µc.- dfk ,..--.,rldng t-UUcmc.nt ( tf
th«•I')·
b . l l)r-tthcsc." on be tei~:1c:d :md he prC'Wt.-ti\·r
c. Ad,·1ucc lnu" lalge
5. \ ,nu,:sofproblomt,nd h)l>0thcses I
-a. Direct im·csdgation and inqu.ity
b. En•blc the rescan-her m deduce specific empirical aunifes111tions
c. Sen-. ,s me_ bridie hetwc,,n thcol')· •nd empirical inquiry.
6.. Scientific 1·,mblcms arc nol mu ral or r.thial questiun.11.. Science cannot an-
~" u \"',tlue or iuJgm c:n1:al quest.k.1u.
-
7. Uctcc.•wm of ,,..Im: 11u~onHS: l-11ok fur worJ.s iuch lb bt.11.<r 1hu11. ,bWJJ/. ur
ONfl./JI.
8. Anutlu:r 1.·ommon •lrt'~ , •>I' 1,rul1h.:m M~tt'mt'.no ,, tht IMinJt t1f mcthudolott•
inl pnims n~uh1•ruhlc111,.
a. ·n,ey arc uot ,ul~t.mth·c pr9lllcm~ tfon come Jjrccdy from the l•.Hic
proLlem
b. ·n1c}, rr.lue 1n techniques or methods of gmpling, tr1~M1ring. o r 3nalyz-
in~ not in tlut.'),tion fonn.
9. On rrohlems, tha-c is a need to compromise he.r"ttn l,e-ing ton gcn(:r.tl
:and too sped6cc The ability to do this comes with "'J><ricn,..,_
10. Problems 2nd hypotheses need to rellcct the mulanrutc a:nnplmty ofbc-
b::t\•ior.al $4."lc:nc.-e ~q,·.
11. llu: hJ110thois is one of the: m ost powerful tools inn:ntt.-d fn :u;hic,·c dc-
lk:nd,!Jlc l.nowkdgc. h has the JK>Wer of pred,c·dnn. A ncg.ati,·c finding for•
hyp.nhnis can scn·c to clirnimur: one l'IO!it'iiiblt c.r1,IJn;ation :.ind open <dtcr
hfi,othcsc:s •nd lines of ln,·cS1iptl11n.

STUDY SUCCESTIONS

I. Use th• follw·ing ,'2JUhle Qarnei ,., write rc..-.rch prol,lcms 1nJ
hype.uh~: frustutlon.. :IL-:Jtlcmic ;1d1ievc:mc:.m. imdlig<-ncc . ,·crb:11 a.bili1y.
nee, S<Jeial cbn (soci0ttt,noinic itlU,a.~). ~l, rdnft1rn-:mcn1, teaching
ntc,hod.~. Ol"Cl1p:atlcuul choice, co1,~c:n·,1th,'ln, cJuatio n.. inrornc, autborir:y.
need for ucl,ic, csuc1u. ~roup t:ohc.'-in·m.:~~. uhc,lit.·m·c-. soci.al pro1.igc,
1,en1us_..iwnc.-"\,._
l . Tt.n 1•mhl.:111~ fnun lln: ro1.:1m:h lltcrn1urc 1m: go·tn 1..:1~·. Srud)' thC'.rn mrr•
full)•, du:M. .)I.(' •~ o or llircc. 1u,,I f.'I IU'-1 l'm't hypothoo ltJ"°,I ''" them•
ur
... l)u duldrtn u( ,l1ih:rcnc c:1l111ic f(NlllJl~ h;.i\C ,Ufkn:nt lr,d, tc.~ t .11ll1CI)'
(Cuid, ,'tc l.udlu", 1'IM•J)?
1.,. Ou l.'tM.Jpcnnhc ,,.oci:el ,-iwutions lc~1I to highrr IC'\d> of intrin,ic
ntotlv,tinn ? (I lwn. lkr~cr. D111mm, ,\tiller. ,otc lkl,·in. 111'1~)?
c. Arc affrc."th·c r~pon!'lc; inAucucctl hy pc:oplc•i f.actll .acth ity (Stnd:.. ~1:anin
1

& S1cppcr. 1?88),

d. \\111 jumB follow prohibith·c judicial instrunions ~ml infonnnion (Sh.tw
& Skr.loick. 1995)?
~ \\l t:u :are the posith-e effects of using gftcm:atin~n,rcssure l>lds 10 1,n..,.·en1
,,rc..~u~ )ores in homdH..Huul ho$pkc 1udcnts (Scon~berg. PitL'\liCL, & .Mr•
IUII, I1}86)?
f. \\11at ncr the dTttH ~,r ~;arly 111.1\'lm•i:m t·unJ1ri(~1ing on l,tcr P·:l\'lo\1.1.n
<.-ootlitiooin1t (L,riricrc &. S1•1..•iu\ 1iJ'J<•)?
«· Doc."$ 1h~ cffiC2c.')' o( cntndlnft' inform:ado1, ins.o long•tcnu mcmor,1defle"d
o n du: non:•h)' of the infornuuion CI\Jhtini & ~run. l?'JS\?