AUKUS: A Harbinger to Nuclear Race

between India and Pakistan

In the latter half of the 2021, Washington initiated strategic trilateral defence pact with the UK
and Australia, colloquially called as AUKUS. AUKUS is a strategic security framework to assist
Australia in building nuclear-powered submarines to extend interoperability, mutual benefit, and
commonality.[i]

Aside of assisting Australia building nuclear-powered submarines, the core purpose of AUKUS
is to contain China’s meteoric rise and its growing naval expansionist desire in Indo-Pacific
region in general and particularly in the South China Sea. AUKUS aims to have a surveillance
over the sea routes and then maintain strategic dominance in the Indi-Pacific region, particularly
in competition with China.[ii] AUKUS reflect the Indo-Pacific ambitions of U.S. and the
manifestation of the U.S. Foreign Policy under Biden’s administration, as Antony Blinken stated
in his early speech after assuming the office, that China presents America’s the “biggest
geopolitical test of the 21st century.”[iii]

AUKUS and repercussion for Nuclear Non-Proliferation

The new Security Pact, AUKUS, has certainly overshadowed the aims of Quadrilateral Security
Dialogue (Quad)[iv] by bringing back the geo-strategic and security competition in the Pacific. It
has rung the alarm bell in the region as the Pact has the potential to disturb balance of power
among the countries influence by AUKUS. China, Russia, and Japan have been more reactive
and raised concerns against Australian accusation of nuclear-powered submarines as pact has the
potential to jeopardize the nuclear weapon free zone status of Southeast Asia. In response to it,
China’s Foreign Minister Spokesperson Zhao Lijian has termed AUKUS as a violation of the
Treaty of Rarotonga (1985), which made an assurance to a nuclear-free South-Pacific region.[v]
Similarly, many political analysts and nuclear experts are of the view that the trilateral security
pact poses grave threat to the nuclear non-proliferation regimes[vi] such as Treaty on Non-
Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT). In 1970, NPT was entered into force with a clear
objection of preventing the spread of nuclear weapons, promoting peaceful use of nuclear
energy, and achieving nuclear disarmament.[vii] On the contrary, AUKUS explicitly promotes
export of nuclear facilitates for security purposes and promotes nuclear proliferation,
horizontally as well as vertically. After the creation of Nuclear Supplier Group (NSG), AUKUS
is yet another setback to the global efforts of nuclear non-proliferation.

Nuclear competition between India and Pakistan

Unlike, balance of power among countries in Pacific, India and Pakistan face direct implication
of AUKUS, as it may ignite a nuclear-race between India and Pakistan. The geography of India
and Pakistan is such that it has always been difficult for both neighbouring yet rival countries to
avoid great power competition whether it was the World Wars or Cold War. Although India has
had successfully maintained neutrality towards great power competition since its independence
in 1947, India non-alignment policy may fad owing to assertive China and geo-strategic
showdown in the Pacific.

Other than five nuclear state (the U.S., France, UK, Russia, and China), India is the only non-
NPT nuclear state to possess nuclear-powered submarine i.e. INS Arihant, leased by Russia.
With time the technology became outdated and India needed an up-gradation to its nuclear-
powered submarine program but NPT and other nuclear non-proliferation regimes are the main
hurdle for India to modernize its naval defences. After the inception of AUKUS, the tides have
turned, as AUKUS is a possible platform for India to bargain for better nuclear technologies to
augment its nuclear-powered submarine to secure its strategic interest in Indian Ocean and
Pacific region. The point of concern is that the sharing and production of nuclear-powered subs
intricately link to nuclear weapons and sharing of sensitive nuclear technologies,[viii] which will
be possible through the platform of AUKUS. This has sparked a debate among security and
regional experts that AUKUS will disturb the balance of power and rekindle nuclear race in the
region. Hirofumi Tosaki, Centre for Disarmament-Centre for Science and Technology, showed
distresses by stating that the exemption granted to Australia acquiring nuclear-powered subs will
motivate other countries that they too should have such options.[ix] Likewise, Zhao Lijian has
also warned that the security pact will undermine the peace and stability of the region.[x]

AUKUS will create avenues for the regional powers to make similar arrangements between like-
minded allies, and one such scenario can be possible between China and Pakistan. The security
pact will incite China to look for ‘partner in crime’ and China cannot trust any country other than
Pakistan. The friendship dates back to 1963 when both nations reached an amicable settlement,
and delineation of borders. China is also Pakistan’s biggest trading partner when it comes to the
imports of military hardware. Besides, China has been playing an important role in strengthening
Pakistan’s defence. China has gifted PNS Tughril (Type 054A/P) and J-10C fighter jet to
Pakistan and its collaboration over JF-17 Thunder bear testimony to their long-standing bilateral
relationship. Furthermore, cooperation between the navies of the two countries have been
unprecedented in the recent years. In 2017, Pakistan signed agreement with China to acquire four
Type 54 Guided Missile Frigates, which were the most technically advance Chinese frigates of
the modern era.[xi]. Yet transfer of nuclear-powered submarine to Pakistan is not a Chinese
agenda so far, but India’s proximity with AUKUS can motivate China to equip Pakistan with
nuclear-powered subs to balance with India. In any possible scenario, strengthening Pakistan’s
naval force is not a choice for China but its own strategic interest.

Similarly, AUKUS has the potential to entice India to upgrade its nuclear-powered submarine
capability as India is a strategic partner to the U.S. and enjoy close partnership with the UK and
Australia. According to the regional experts, AUKUS is mostly like to expand and India is the
strongest contender among other regional allies such as South Korea or Japan, as India and
AUKUS shares a common enemy i.e. China. Moreover, AUKUS without India will not serve the
purpose of AUKUS and AUKUS is not only a partnership to develop nuclear-powered
submarine for Australia but also a strategic agreement to cooperate over AI in the Pacific. India
also will not leave any opportunity to modernize its out-dated nuclear technology and naval
capabilities. Moreover, ‘No First Use’ of nuclear weapon policy of India is hallowed and nothing
more than a political gimmick as the Western powers are keep on modernizing and equipping
India with nuclear arsenals, knowing the fact that India is renowned for nuclear theft and
failures. Since 2014, BJP is trying to reverse and update its doctrine of ‘No First Use’, owing to
the emerging challenges to its frontiers with Pakistan and China. Being a strategic partner of the
U.S., India’s bilateral relations with other members of the AUKUS, i.e. UK and Australia, has
touched new heights. Australian High Commissioner in Delhi (India) Barry O’Farrell stated that
this century belongs to India and welcomes Indian forces in Exercise Talisman Sabre, a biennial
exercise led by the Australian Defence Forces and the U.S. military. Additionally, MILAN
2022,[xii] a multilateral naval exercise, is yet another evidence that the West is building India’s
naval expertise and schooling India to operate in high seas, before offering a membership to
AUKUS. Owing to the proximity and strategic partnership with the major contenders in South
Pacific, India and Pakistan might take a side not by choice but by their geo-strategic compulsion.

Conclusion

Global order is facing a tumultuous times since the economic crisis of 2009, as nothing is certain.
Although India is not a member of AUKUS, India is a natural partner to AUKUS. The legitimate
security concerns of India in the retrospect of border skirmishes with China and Chinese
expansionist policies in the Pacific, AUKUS elite will be forced to cooperate with India over
nuclear-powered submarine. India was then a non-NPT member when the U.S. lobbied to make
India member of NSG. So, nothing is certain but if India join AUKUS there is a possibility that
China will help Pakistan to acquire nuclear-powered submarine which will eventually start a new
era of nuclear race in Asia in general and particularly between arch-rivals India and Pakistan.