Thayer Consultancy

Monthly Report August 2024

Carlyle A. Thayer
Director
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Thayer Consultancy
Australian Business Number
ABN 65 648 097 123

P.O. Box 435

Jamison Centre
Macquarie, A.C.T. 2614
Australia
+61 (02) 6251 1849
[email protected]

Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and other
research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially registered as a small
business in Australia in 2002.
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Table of Contents

Thayer Consultancy Background Briefs .................................................................................................. 2

Publications in Press .............................................................................................................................. 3

Thayer Consultancy Publications ........................................................................................................... 4

Presentations ........................................................................................................................................ 4

Consultations ........................................................................................................................................ 4

Peer Reviews ......................................................................................................................................... 5

TV Interviews and Video ........................................................................................................................ 5

Media Interviews................................................................................................................................... 5

Future Commitments ........................................................................................................................... 20

Thayer Consultancy Background Briefs

[archived at Scribd.com]
1. “Vietnam’s Bamboo Diplomacy,” Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, August 2, 2024.
https://www.scribd.com/document/763320119/Thayer-Vietnam-s-Bamboo-Diplomacy.
2. “Vietnam’s Central Committee to Hold Special Session,” Thayer Consultancy Background
Brief, August 2, 2024. https://www.scribd.com/document/762037173/Thayer-Vietnam-s-
Central-Committee-to-Holds-Extraordinary-Session.
3. “Vietnam Claims Extended Continental Shelf,” Thayer Consultancy Background Brief,
August 3, 2024. https://www.scribd.com/document/762322863/Thayer-Vietnam-Claims-
Extended-Continental-Shelf-1.
4. “To Lam Officially Becomes Party General Secretary – 1,” Thayer Consultancy Background
Brief, August 3, 2024. https://www.scribd.com/document/762037895/Thayer-to-Lam-
Officially-Becomes-Party-General-Secretary-1.
5. “To Lam Officially Becomes Party General Secretary – 2,” Thayer Consultancy Background
Brief, August 3, 2024. https://www.scribd.com/document/762038511/Thayer-to-Lam-
Officially-Becomes-Party-General-Secretary-2.
6. “Vietnam Lodges Claim for Extended Continental Shelf – 2,” Thayer Consultancy
Background Brief, August 4, 2024.
https://www.scribd.com/document/762324084/Thayer-Vietnam-Claims-Extended-
Continental-Shelf-2.
7. “To Lam Becomes Party Secretary General – 3,” Thayer Consultancy Background Brief,
August 5, 2024. https://www.scribd.com/document/762038937/Thayer-To-Lam-
Oficially-Becomes-Party-Secretary-General-3.
8. “Vietnam and the Philippines: Comparing Defence Cooperation,” Thayer Consultancy
Background Brief, August 8, 2024.
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https://www.scribd.com/document/762626855/Thayer-Vietnam-and-the-Philippines-
Comparing-Defence-Cooperation.
9. “Vietnam’s Foreign Policy Under To Lam,” Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, August
10, 2024. https://www.scribd.com/document/762039285/Thayer-Vietnam-s-Foreign-
Policy-Under-to-Lam.
10. “China’s Response to Japan’s Defence Cooperation with Vietnam and the Philippines,”
Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, August 10, 2024.
https://www.scribd.com/document/762627251/Thayer-China-s-Response-to-Japan-s-
Defence-Cooperation-With-Vietnam-and-the-Philippines.
11. “Vietnam: Geopolitical Implications of Global Polarization,” Thayer Consultancy
Background Brief, August 13, 2024.
https://www.scribd.com/document/762615451/Thayer-Vietnam-Geopolitical-
Implications-of-Global-Polarization.
12. “General Secretary To Lam to Visit China – 1,” Thayer Consultancy Background Brief,
August 14, 2024. https://www.scribd.com/document/762040024/Thayer-General-
Secretary-to-Lam-to-Visit-China-1.
13. “AUKUS Submarines: To Be or Not to Be?” Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, August
15, 2024. https://www.scribd.com/document/762627626/Thayer-AUKUS-Submarines-
To-Be-or-Not-to-Be.
14. “General Secretary To Lam to Visit China – 2,” Thayer Consultancy Background Brief,
August 15, 2024. https://www.scribd.com/document/762040422/Thayer-General-
Secretary-to-Lam-to-Visit-China-2.
15. “General Secretary To Lam to Visit China – 3,” Thayer Consultancy Background Brief,
August 16, 2024. https://www.scribd.com/document/762041615/Thayer-General-
Secretary-to-Lam-to-Visit-China-3.
16. “To Lam and the Blazing Furnace Campaign,” Thayer Consultancy Background Brief,
August 17, 2024. https://www.scribd.com/document/762042120/Thayer-to-Lam-and-
the-Blazing-Furnace-Campaign.
17. “U.S. B-2 Stealth Bombers Arrive at RAAF Base Amberley,” Thayer Consultancy
Background Brief, August 21, 2024.
https://www.scribd.com/document/762628036/Thayer-U-S-B-2-Stealth-Bombers-
Arrive-at-RAAF-Base-Amberley.
18. “General Secretary To Lam’s Visit to China,” Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, August
21, 2024. https://www.scribd.com/document/762042664/Thayer-General-Secretary-to-
Lam-s-Visit-to-China.
19. “Vietnam to Elect New State President,” Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, August 28,
2024. https://www.scribd.com/document/764384991/Thayer-Vietnam-to-Elect-New-
State-President.

Publications in Press
“India’s Neighbourhood Policy,” FPRC Journal (Foreign Policy Research Centre, New Delhi) No.
57 forthcoming.
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“Continental Drift: Australia and the 2024 NATO Summit,” Asia Pacific Bulletin (East West
Center Washington), submitted August 15, 2024.
“South China Sea: International Law Perspectives,” in Rahul Mishra, ed., Navigating
Complexities: Building Regional Trust and Stability in the South China Sea (Kuala Lumpur:
Centre for ASEAN Regionalism, Universiti Malaya and EU Policy and Outreach Partnership,
EU Delegation to ASEAN, 2024). Submitted June 10, 2024.
“All Hands on Deck: Vietnam Embraces the Blue Economy,” in Rosalie Arcala Hall and Alex
Tan, eds., Maritime Security and Blue Economy in Southeast Asia (Singapore: World Scientific
Publishing, 2024). Submitted June 17, 2024.

Thayer Consultancy Publications

Thayer Consultancy Monthly Report – July 2024 (Canberra: August 4, 2024).
https://www.scribd.com/document/757948034/Thayer-Consultancy-Monthly-Report-7-
July-2024.
Vietnam-ASEAN Relations Under General Secretary To Lam, Thayer Consultancy Discussion
Paper No. 4 (Canberra: August 2024).
https://www.scribd.com/document/757946526/General-Secretary-Nguyen-Phu-Trong-s-
Legacy-A-Reader
General Secretary Nguyen Phu Trong’s Legacy, Thayer Consultancy Reader No. 15 (Canberra:
August 10, 2024). https://www.scribd.com/document/757946526/General-Secretary-
Nguyen-Phu-Trong-s-Legacy-A-Reader.
To Lam General Secretary of the Communist Party of Vietnam, Thayer Consultancy Reader
No. 16, August 23, 2024. https://www.scribd.com/document/762073550/Reader-16-To-
Lam-Becomes-General-Secretary-of-the-Communist-Party-of-Viet-Nam.
Maritime Disputes and Defence Cooperation in the South China Sea, Thayer Consultancy
Reader No. 17, August 26, 2024. https://www.scribd.com/document/762950233/Maritime-
Disputes-and-Defence-Cooperation-in-the-South-China-Sea-Reader-17.

Presentations
Professor Carl Thayer, “In Conversation” with Sen Nguyen, Fireside Chat, Australia Vietnam
Leadership Dialogue, AVLD 2024, Video link to Australia and Vietnam, August 17, 2024.

Consultations
Taiwan Film Festival, Australian National Film and Sound Archive, Canberra, August 2, 2024.
Reception, 57th Anniversary of the Association of South East Asian Nations and 50th
Anniversary of ASEAN-Australia Dialogue Relations, hosted by Ambassador HE Ma. Hellen B.
De La Vega, Chairman of the ASEAN Committee in Canberra, Realm Hotel, Canberra, August
12, 2024.
Andrew Goledzinowski, Australian Ambassador to Vietnam, Canberra, August 14, 2024.
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Peer Reviews
"Trouble in Hot Waters: Vietnam Fishing Disputes in the South China Sea," Southeast Asian
Studies [Kyodo University], submitted August 12, 2024.

TV Interviews and Video

美国之音中文网 @VOA Chinese

Professor Carl Thayer, University of New South Wales Australia, interviewed by Voice of
America Cantonese, August 21, 2024.

中国与菲律宾再次于南中国海爆发冲突，双方互相指责使得紧张局势加剧。观察人士
指出，北京正透过海上及空中的军事活动，将与马尼拉的战线逼近菲律宾海岸，虽然
目前东盟对于中国扩张行为的回应仍不足，但美国最新部署的飞弹，将能对中国潜在
的侵略起到强大的威慑作用。https://shorturl.at/bD5tE
Translated from Chinese by
China and the Philippines have once again clashed in the South China Sea, with both sides
accusing each other of escalating tensions. Observers point out that Beijing is pushing the
front line with Manila closer to the Philippine coast through military activities at sea and in
the air. Although ASEAN's response to China's expansionist behavior is still insufficient, the
latest missiles deployed by the United States will have a strong deterrent effect on China's
potential aggression. https://shorturl.at/bD5tE
https://x.com/VOAChinese/status/1826025443818090730?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcam
p%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1826025443818090730%7Ctwgr%5E9f9c3df4369b0984d
36da8f9c245f8e709f1d54c%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fptop.only.wip.la%3A443%2Fhttps%2Fwww.voachinese.c
om%2Fa%2Fis-china-losing-ground-in-south-china-sea-20240820%2F7750245.html (news
video 81.6K views)

Media Interviews
1. Chau Doan, Luật Khoa Tạp Chí (Law Faculty Journal), August 2, 2024.
2. Keigo Matsushita, Hanoi Bureau Chief, Kyodo News, August 2, 2024.
3. Damien Cave, The New York Times, Sydney, August 3, 2024.
4. Lam Nguyen, Agence France Presse, Hanoi, August 3, 2024.\
5. Kim Dung, Nikkei Bureau, Hanoi, August 3, 2024.
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6. Thuong Le, BBC Vietnamese Service, August 3, 2024.

7. Bac Pham and Bennet Murray, Deutsche Presse Agentur, August 3, 2024.
8. Vu Thanh Tu, Bureau Chief, Vietnam News Agency, Sydney, August 4, 2024.
9. Vu Thanh Tu, Bureau Chief, Vietnam News Agency, Sydney, August 5, 2024.
10. Maria Siow, South China Morning Post, August 7, 2024.
11. Le Nguyen, Voice of America, August 10, 2024.
12. Dewey Sim, Senior Reporter, China Desk, South China Morning Post, August 10, 2024.
13. Trần Thị Thu Loan, Reporter, Tien Phong Newspaper, August 13, 2024.
14. Jon Boudreau, Bloomberg, August 14, 2024.
15. Bui Thu, BBC Vietnamese Service, August 14, 2024.
16. Seth Robson, Stars and Stripes, August 15, 2024.
17. Gim Siong Lee, reporter, ChannelNewsAsia.com, August 15, 2024.
18. Mike Firn, Radio Free Asia, August 16 2024.
19. Caleb Mills, Associate Features Editor, E-International Relations, August 17, 2024.
20. Will Jackson, Digital Journalist, ABC News, Asia-Pacific Newsroom, August 20, 2024
21. Jarvis Lim Peh Hong, Voice of America News, Taipei, August 20, 2024.
22. Seth Robson, Stars and Stripes, August 21, 2024.
23. Thanh Tu, Vietnam News Agency, Sydney, August 21, 2024.
24. Bui Thu, BBC Vietnamese Service, August 28, 2024.

Thayer In the Media August 2024

Interviews: 24
Trending: To Lam elected Vietnam’s party General Secretary, To Lam visits China, AUKUS
submarines, China’s response to Japan’s defence cooperation with Philippines and Vietnam,
South China Sea extended continental shelf, Vietnam bamboo diplomacy, Vietnam blazing
furnace campaign, Vietnam foreign policy, Vietnam geopolitics, Vietnam-Philippines defence
cooperation, US Stealth bombers visit Australia
Radio interviews: BBC Vietnamese Service, Radio Free Asia, Voice of America (English),
Voice of America Cantonese
TV interviews: Voice of America News
Media interviews: Australian Broadcasting Corporation (ABC) News, Agence France Presse,
Bloomberg News, Deutsche Presse Agentur, E-International Relations, Kyodo News, The New
York Times, Nikkei, South China Morning Post, Stars and Stripes, Vietnam News Agency, Voice
of America News
Vietnamese Media interviews: Luật Khoa Tạp Chí
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Quoted by: Actual News Magazine, Barrons, Báo Tin Tức, Fair Observer, GlobalSecurity.com,
Indiana Statesman, International Business Times, KHQ (Spokane), News18.com, Noticias
Financieras, Taiwan Times, UWire, Viet Nam News, Brief Service, Viet Nam News Summary,
Vietnam Plus, Voice of Vietnam (World)

Media Extracts*
To Lam Confirmed as Vietnam’s Top Leader Until at Least 2026
“He might be the starting horse in the race for 2026, but he has to go through a particular
process,” said Carl Thayer, a Vietnam expert and emeritus professor of politics at the
University of New South Wales, Canberra, Australia. He added: “There is a lot of space in there
for people to oppose him.”…
Mr. Thayer said that the position of party chief will be a test for Mr. Lam, forcing him to
manage complex foreign relations and a wide range of views about the anticorruption drive.
“When he was minister of public security, it was top down,” Mr. Thayer said. “Now he has to
be a consensus builder.”…
“The policies are set in stone,” Mr. Thayer said, adding: “The driving force is to be a modern
industrial country by 2045 with a high income.”
Damien Cave, The New York Times, August 2, 2024
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/08/02/world/asia/to-lam-vietnam-leader.html
Reprinted:
To Lam Confirmed as Vietnam’s Top Leader Until at Least 2026
Damien Cave, The New York Times, August 3, 2024
Vietnam President Gets a Promotion
Damien Cave, The New York Times, August 4, 2024
Dow Jones Factiva

Chủ tịch nước Tô Lâm làm tổng bí thư

Đánh giá về việc ông Tô Lâm được bầu làm tổng bí thư, Giáo sư Carl Thayer từ Đại học New
South Wales (Úc) [Professor Carl Thayer at the University of New South Wales (Australia)] chia
sẻ với BBC:
“Việc Ban Chấp hành Trung ương chính thức xác nhận ông Tô Lâm làm tổng bí thư không phải
là điều bất ngờ. Ban Chấp hành Trung ương Đang đang tuân theo quy trình bằng cách tổ chức
một phiên họp bất thường để xác định sự thay đổi lãnh đạo cấp cao. Ông Tô Lâm sẽ đảm
nhiệm phần còn lại của khoảng mười sáu tháng cho đến khi Đại hội 14 được tổ chức.”
Giáo sư Thayer nhận định với việc ông Tô Lâm làm tổng bí thư, sẽ không có thay đổi lớn nào
về chính sách đối nội và đối ngoại trong giai đoạn chuyển tiếp này.

*
May include media extracts not included in previous Thayer Consultancy Monthly Reports.
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“Ông Tô Lâm sẽ hoàn toàn tập trung vào việc giám sát các công tác chuẩn bị cho Đại hội 14
dự kiến sẽ diễn ra vào đầu năm 2026. Với vai trò là trưởng Tiểu ban Nhân sự chịu trách nhiệm
thẩm định và phê duyệt các ứng cử viên cho Ban Chấp hành Trung ương mới, ông Tô Lâm sẽ
đặc biệt cảnh giác để loại bỏ những ứng cử viên liên quan đến tham nhũng hoặc không đạt
tiêu chuẩn của đảng,” Giáo sư Thayer nói.
Giáo sư Thayer cũng nói rằng khi Tô Lâm đã là tổng bí thư, có khả năng ông sẽ từ chức chủ
tịch nước. Ban Chấp hành Trung ương sau đó sẽ đề xuất người thay thế ông lên Quốc hội.
Nếu kịch bản này xảy ra, “Tứ Trụ” sẽ được khôi phục ở Việt Nam.
“Sự lãnh đạo tập thể mới này sẽ giúp trấn an các chính phủ và nhà đầu tư nước ngoài rằng
Việt Nam sẽ vẫn ổn định về chính trị cho đến khi quá trình chuyển giao lãnh đạo dự kiến diễn
ra tại Đại hội 14. Vào thời điểm đó, một Ban Chấp hành Trung ương và Bộ Chính trị mới sẽ
được bầu. Nếu ông Tô Lâm muốn tiếp tục tại nhiệm, ông sẽ phải được miễn tuổi nghỉ hưu bắt
buộc là 65, có thể viện dẫn việc ông có quá trình công tác xuất sắc,” Giáo sư Thayer nhận định
thêm.
BBC Vietnamese Service, August 3, 2024
https://www.bbc.com/vietnamese/articles/c3gdg2n13vno

Vietnam's Communist Party Names To Lam Top Leader

"To Lam has not been fearful of taking down some highly important people," Carl Thayer,
emeritus professor at the University of New South Wales, told AFP.
"He is going to do it again."…
"Decision-making has slowed in Vietnam because people are afraid that they might cross the
line and get them involved in accusations of corruption," said Thayer.
"To Lam has got to work that out."
Agence France-Presse, August 3, 2024
Dow Jones Factiva
Reprinted:
Vietnam | President To Lam appointed head of the Communist Party
Actual News Magazine, August 4, 2024
https://actualnewsmagazine.com/english/vietnam-president-to-lam-appointed-head-of-
the-communist-party/
Vietnam's Communist Party Names To Lam Top Leader
Agence France Presse, Barrons, August 3, 2024
https://www.barrons.com/articles/vietnam-s-communist-party-names-to-lam-top-leader-
b334db26
Vietnam's Communist Party names To Lam top leader
AFP, Indiana Statesman, August 3, 2024
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https://www.isustudentmedia.com/indiana_statesman/news/national/article_8cc2c674-
6a7a-55e1-a3da-52d73556009d.html
Vietnam's Communist Party Names To Lam Top Leader
AFP News, International Business Times, August 3, 2024.
Vietnam's Communist Party names To Lam top leader
AFP, KHQ (Spokane), August 3, 2024
https://www.khq.com/national/vietnams-communist-party-names-to-lam-top-
leader/article_e78d7eb2-2a70-5252-ad3a-614754dcc960.html
Vietnamese President To Lam Formally Named As The Country's Communist Party Chief
AFP, News18.com, August 3, 2024
Dow Jones Factiva
Vietnamese President Appointed Communist Party Leader
Noticias Financieras English, August 3, 2924
‘Dow Jones Factiva
Vietnam’s To Lam named leader, vows to fight graft faster
AFP, Taipei Times, August 4, 2024
https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2024/08/04/2003821746
Vietnam's Communist Party Names To Lam Top Leader
UWire, August 3, 2024
Dow Jones Factiva

Giáo sư Carl Thayer: Đảng Cộng sản Việt Nam khẳng định tinh thần đoàn kết
Trả lời phỏng vấn của phóng viên TTXVN tại Sydney, Giáo sư Carl Thayer, Học viện Quốc phòng
Australia, Đại học New South Wales (Professor Carl Thayer, Australian Defence Force Ac
Academy, University of New South Wales]. , cho rằng việc Ban Chấp hành Trung ương Đảng
Cộng sản Việt Nam khóa XIII nhất trí bầu Chủ tịch nước Tô Lâm làm Tổng Bí thư đã khẳng định
sự đoàn kết trong Đảng.
Theo Giáo sư Carl Thayer, Tổng Bí thư Tô Lâm nhấn mạnh sẽ tiếp tục di sản do cố Tổng Bí thư
Nguyễn Phú Trọng để lại và kiên quyết, kiên trì đấu tranh phòng, chống tham nhũng, tiêu cực,
cùng với đó là đẩy mạnh công tác xây dựng Đảng. Giáo sư nhận định từ nay đến Đại hội đại
biểu toàn quốc Đảng Cộng sản Việt Nam lần thứ XIV, Việt Nam sẽ giữ vững ổn định chính trị
và không có thay đổi lớn về chính sách đối nội và đối ngoại. Điều này sẽ giúp các nhà đầu tư
nước ngoài cảm thấy yên tâm.
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Giáo sư Carl Thayer trả lời phỏng vấn của phóng

viên TTXVN tại Sydney, Australia. Ảnh tư liệu:
Thanh Tú/Pv TTXVN tại Sydney, Australia
Giáo sư Carl Thayer cho rằng dưới sự lãnh đạo
của Tổng Bí thư, Chủ tịch nước Tô Lâm, Việt
Nam có thể đạt được mục tiêu trở thành một
quốc gia đang phát triển có nền công nghiệp
hiện đại và mức thu nhập trung bình cao vào
năm 2030. Theo Giáo sư, Tổng Bí thư, Chủ tịch
nước Tô Lâm đã xác định rõ rằng đó là mục tiêu chính. Thực tế chứng minh Việt Nam vẫn là
một trong những nền kinh tế tăng trưởng nhanh nhất trong khu vực và theo ông Thayer, đây
là yếu tố tích cực.
Tổng Bí thư, Chủ tịch nước Tô Lâm nêu bật những ưu tiên trong chính sách đối ngoại Việt
Nam thời gian tới, trong đó khẳng định tiếp tục đẩy mạnh quan hệ với các nước láng giềng,
đối tác chiến lược, toàn diện, bạn bè truyền thống, không ngừng củng cố tin cậy chính trị, đan
xen lợi ích, đối ngoại hòa bình, hợp tác cao nhất cho sự phát triển; tăng cường đóng góp trong
duy trì hòa bình, ổn định ở khu vực và trên thế giới, tiếp tục nâng tầm ngoại giao đa phương,
phát huy vai trò thành viên tích cực, có trách nhiệm trong cộng đồng quốc tế. Đánh giá về
những ưu tiên này, Giáo sư Carl Thayer cho rằng những nguyên lý cơ bản trong chính sách đối
ngoại của Việt Nam đã được định hình, đó là chính sách “ngoại giao cây tre”. Những ưu tiên
nói trên là kết quả của quá trình lãnh đạo ra quyết định tập thể, cách tiếp cận linh hoạt. Giáo
sư Carl Thayer nhận định sẽ có sự tiếp nối của chính sách trước đây và điều này sẽ trấn an tất
cả những quốc gia hợp tác với Việt Nam về duy trì sự gắn kết liên tục trong tương lai.
Thanh Tú, Văn Linh and Lê Đạt (TTXVN), Báo Tin Tức, August 6, 2024
https://baotintuc.vn/thoi-su/giao-su-carl-thayer-dang-cong-san-viet-nam-khang-dinh-tinh-
than-doan-ket-20240806095032172.htm

Election of State President as Party chief affirms CPV’s solidarity: Australian expert
The election of State President To Lam by the 13th Communist Party of Vietnam (CPV) Central
Committee affirms solidarity within the party, Emeritus Professor Carl Thayer at the
University of New South Wales has said in an interview granted to the Vietnam News Agency.
Emeritus Professor Carl Thayer (Photo: VNA)
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Sydney (VNA) – The election of State President
To Lam by the 13th Communist Party of
Vietnam (CPV) Central Committee affirms
solidarity within the party, Emeritus Professor
Carl Thayer at the University of New South
Wales has said in an interview granted to the
Vietnam News Agency.
Lam stressed he will continue late Party General Secretary Nguyen Phu Trong’s legacy, be
resolve to fight corruption and other negative phenomena, and step up the Party building
work, the Australian expert on Vietnamese studies highlighted, holding that Vietnam’s politics
 11

will remain stable while there will be no radical changes in its domestic and foreign policies
till the 14th Party Congress, ensuring investors’ confidence.
According to Thayer, under the leadership of Lam, Vietnam could reach its target of becoming
a developed country with modern industry and upper-middle income by 2030 which, as Lam
said, is a main goal. A positive factor is that Vietnam has been among the fastest-growing
economies in the region.
Regarding priorities in Vietnam’s foreign affairs in the coming time, Party General Secretary
and State President To Lam affirmed that the country will continue strengthening ties with its
neighbours, strategic and comprehensive partners and traditional friends, unceasingly
consolidate political trust, peace dialogues and cooperation at the highest level for
development, enhance contributions to maintaining peace and stability in the region and the
world, elevate multilateral diplomacy, and promote its role as a proactive and responsible
member of the international community.
Thayer described the priorities as basic principles of the nation’s “bamboo diplomacy”, adding
they are the results of the collective decision-making leadership and flexible approach, adding
there will be a continuation of the previous policy, which will comfort countries with
cooperation relations with Vietnam about the continuous engagement in the future./.
Vietnam New Agency, August 6, 2024
Dow Jones Factiva
Reprinted:
Election of State President as Party chief affirms CPV’s solidarity: Australian expert
Viet Nam News, August 6, 2024
Dow Jones Factiva
Election of President To Lam as Party chief affirms CPV’s solidarity: Australian expert
Vietnam News Agency, Vietnam Plus, August 6, 20224
https://en.vietnamplus.vn/election-of-state-president-as-party-chief-affirms-cpvs-solidarity-
australian-expert-post291423.vnp
Election of State President as Party chief affirms Vietnamese CPV’s solidarity: Australian
expert
Vietnam News Summary, August 6, 2024
Dow Jones Factiva
Election of President To Lam as Party chief affirms CPV’s solidarity: Carl Thayer
Voice of Vietnam World, August 6, 2024
https://vovworld.vn/en-US/news/election-of-president-to-lam-as-party-chief-affirms-cpvs-
solidarity-carl-thayer-1316907.vov
 12

As Philippines, Vietnam close ranks, China adopts ‘divide and conquer’ approach
Carl Thayer, an emeritus professor at the University of New South Wales, said unlike the
Philippines, Vietnam had refrained from deploying its navy to confront Chinese ships in its
exclusive economic zone.
Instead, Hanoi had deployed coastguard and civilian vessels to monitor Chinese activities,
exercised tight control over Vietnamese media coverage of maritime incidents and pursued
diplomatic channels with Beijing over their South China Sea dispute, Thayer said.
As for the Philippines, China’s approach would have taken into account the various military
exercises that the Southeast Asian nation conducts regularly with its allies such as the annual
Balikatan exercise with the US, according to Thayer, who is a specialist on Vietnamese defence
issues.
History, money and military: why the South China Sea is so important to Beijing
“Vietnam does not conduct military exercises with foreign countries because of their war-
fighting connotation” and only allowed one annual visit by a foreign vessel per country to a
Vietnamese port, Thayer added.
Maria Siow, South China Morning Post, August 12, 2024
https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/politics/article/3273874/philippines-vietnam-close-
ranks-china-adopts-divide-and-conquer-approach
Reprinted:
Divide and Conquer: This Week in Asia
Maria Siow, South China Morning Post, August 12, 2024
Dow Jones Factiva

Vietnam's diplomatic balance 'unchanged' under new leader, experts say

Carlyle Thayer, professor emeritus at the University of New South Wales in Canberra, told
VOA in an email that "Vietnam will cooperate and struggle with both China and the United
States in order to retain its independence and strategic autonomy."
He noted that Vietnam's foreign policy was fundamentally shaped by its goal of becoming a
modern industrial country with a high income by 2045.
"To Lam will pursue parallel lines of action in relations with the United States and China," he
said. "Both lines of action aim at promoting Vietnam's economic development."…
"As minister, To Lam bears responsibility for the harassment, intimidation, arrest and
imprisonment of political and civil society activists. There is no indication that there will be
any change for the better in Vietnam's present human rights regime," noted Thayer, who has
been following Vietnam's human rights status.
Thayer said the U.S. has established channels to communicate its concerns to Vietnam while
the EU could invoke the democracy clause in the EU-Vietnam Free Trade Agreement should
there be egregious human rights violations.
 13

Vietnam’s poor human rights record is a product of its one-party political system under a
collective leadership led by the late General Secretary Nguyen Phu Trong for the last 13 years,
Carl Thayer noted. In a congratulatory message to To Lam, Xi Jinping expressed support for
what he called the communist party’s new achievements in “socialist construction” in
Vietnam, but did not bring up the issue of human rights.
Asked if Lam's poor human rights record poses any obstacle to Washington's and Brussels'
approaches, Thayer pointed to meetings between Lam and U.S. Secretary of State Anthony
Blinken and the EU Foreign Affairs and Security chief Josep Borrell when they came to Hanoi
last month to attend Trong's funeral.
Le Nguyen Voice of America, August 14, 2024
https://www.voanews.com/a/7742450.html
Reprinted:
GlobalSecurity.org, August 16, 2024
Dow Jones Factiva

AUKUS pact will boost allies’ submarine numbers in Pacific within 3 years, report says
The U.S. may have subs in Australia within three years as it disperses forces to deter China,
according to Carlyle Thayer, an emeritus professor at the University of New South Wales and
a lecturer at the Australian Defence Force Academy.
The U.S. could transfer three to five Virginia-class subs to Australia in case of delays producing
the AUKUS vessels, he said by email Thursday.
Boat transfers would depend on the U.S.’s ability to build more submarines, the geopolitical
situation in the North Atlantic and Indo-Pacific and continued support for AUKUS by future
U.S. administrations, Thayer said.
Australia has committed $662 million to constructing infrastructure needed for the U.S. and
British subs Down Under, he said.
Delays may result if the British defense industry fails to meet deadlines, Australian labor and
shipbuilding resources fall short, costs pile up or the Australians cannot recruit crews, he said.
Seth Robson, Stars and Stripes, August 15, 2024
https://www.stripes.com/theaters/asia_pacific/2024-08-15/aukus-submarines-australia-
china-14870109.html

Vietnam’s Top Leader Set to Meet Xi During Trip to China

The visit would “reassure the Chinese there will be no changes in policy” since Lam took over
after the death of long-time leader Nguyen Phu Trong last month, according to Carl Thayer,
emeritus professor at the University of New South Wales in Australia.
China is Vietnam’s largest trade partner and also with whom the country also has territorial
disputes with in the South China Sea. Lam will seek to ensure that dozens of agreements
 14

signed during Xi’s trip to Hanoi in December — including boosting trade and funding a cross-
border railway — will materialize, Thayer said.
“He wants to be seen as someone who stands up to China and also works with China as an
equal,” Thayer said. “Party to party relations are the most important conduits between China
and Vietnam.”
As for the US, Vietnam earlier this month expressed displeasure with the Biden
administration’s rejection of Hanoi’s request to be classified officially as a “market economy.”
The decision was seen as a blow for the country’s efforts to boost exports to its most
important market. Yet Lam, most likely, won’t use his meeting with Xi as a way to tweak the
US, Thayer said. “He is not going to do anything in China that alienates the US,” he said.
John Boudreau and Nguyen Dieu Tu Uyen, Bloomberg News, August 15, 2024
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/business/2024/08/15/vietnams-top-leader-set-to-meet-xi-
during-trip-to-china/

Vietnam’s top leader to visit China from Sunday

Carl Thayer, emeritus professor at the University of New South Wales Canberra, said the
visit underscored the importance of good relations between the countries' leaders and
parties.
“Trong’s sudden death brought an end to a long-standing personal relationship with Xi,”
said Thayer.
“Party protocol in these matters is for a new party leader to visit China as soon as practical
to reaffirm the importance of intra-party relations.”…
Lam’s talks with Xi are likely to “come under the umbrella of linking Vietnam’s ‘Two
Corridors, One Belt’ with China’s ‘Belt and Road Initiative’,” according to Thayer.
“The two leaders will focus on enhancing political trust through party-to-party exchanges
and on practical cooperation for mutual benefit such as infrastructure development in the
border area (rail and bridges), investment, trade, finance and currency exchange, food
security, and green development.”
The two sides have clashed over competing territorial claims in the South China Sea, which
have earned diplomatic rebukes from Hanoi and sparked widespread public protests in
Vietnam.
Son said Lam and Xi were likely to have “frank, sincere, and substantive,” discussions on
territorial issues, while claiming that the situation was “basically well controlled; and
exchange and negotiation mechanisms between the two sides on the sea issues regularly
maintained.”
The two leaders are likely to gloss over the issue by “agreeing to disagree,” according to
Thayer.
“Trong and Xi recognised that territorial disputes in the South China Sea were a major
irritant in bilateral relations. Xi and Lam are likely to reaffirm that their disputes should be
resolved peacefully by better management of differences following the consensus reached
by high-level leaders in the past.”
 15

Mike Firn, Radio Free Asia, August 16, 2024

https://www.rfa.org/english/news/vietnam/to-lam-visits-china-08152024232758.html
Reprinted:
GlobalSecurity.org, August 17, 2024
Dow Jones Factiva

Courting spurned neighbour tops Beijing's agenda from visit of Vietnam's Communist party
chief, say analysts
Emeritus professor Carlyle Thayer from the University of New South Wales (UNSW) Canberra,
drew reference to Mr Lam’s first China visit as Vietnam’s Communist Party chief, like his
predecessor Trong did.
“(Like Trong), To Lam is signalling that Vietnam is acknowledging China’s pre-eminent role as
a socialist country (and) that intra-party relations is the most important bilateral conduit for
relations,” added Prof Thayer.
He believes Mr Lam is also likely to seek assurances that China remains committed to the
proposals made between former General Secretary Trong and Chinese President Xi, including
the revision of financial regulations to facilitate currency exchanges between the renminbi
and the dong…
“Vietnam’s bamboo diplomacy is a metaphor not a strategy… The ends of Vietnam’s foreign
policy are to remain independent and self-reliant by diversifying and multilateralising its
foreign relations. Bamboo diplomacy – the ways – are to be firm on principle such as
defending national sovereignty – but flexible in practices.” said Professor Thayer.
Channel News Asia, August 19, 2024
Dow Jones Factiva

中國與菲律賓衝突不斷 東盟和美國會啟動更多反制措施嗎？
The conflict between China and the Philippines continues. Will ASEAN and the United States
launch more countermeasures?
澳洲新南威爾斯大學(University of New South Wales)政治學榮休教授、區域安全事務專
家塞耶(Carlyle Thayer)也說，美國這項最新舉措等同強化了其對於菲律賓等印太盟友的
安全承諾，儘管政策仍以重視避免發生重大衝突，但也在為南中國海甚至台海的最糟
情勢作準備。

塞耶告訴美國之音：“如果（南中國海）出現武裝攻擊，而美國已表示中國的海警屬於
軍事機構，那麼這些行為會被視為軍事行為，並可能引發磋商。接下來將如何發展則
無法確定，取決於事件的嚴重性、起因，以及是否是誤判等。沒有一個國家願意發動
戰爭，因此美國顯然會討論必要措施，但還不會正式啟動這些措施。”
Translated by Google:
 16

Carlyle Thayer, an emeritus professor of political science and regional security affairs expert
at the University of New South Wales in Australia, also said that the latest move of the United
States is equivalent to strengthening its Indo-Pacific Region in the Philippines and other
countries. Friends' security commitment, although the policy still attaches importance to
avoiding major conflicts, is also preparing for the worst situation in the South China Sea and
even the Taiwan Sea.
Thayer told VOA: "If there is an armed attack (in the South China Sea) and the United States
has said that China's coast guard is a military institution, these actions will be regarded as
military acts and may trigger consultations. It is uncertain how it will develop next, depending
on the severity of the incident, the cause, and whether it is a misjudgment. No country is
willing to launch a war, so the United States will obviously discuss the necessary measures,
but will not officially launch these measures.
Voice of America, Cantonese, August 20, 2024
https://www.voacantonese.com/a/is-china-losing-ground-in-south-china-sea-
20240820/7750296.html

Afternoon briefing on August 22

The following is a brief review of the day’s events as reported by the Vietnam News Agency.
- The recent state visit to China by Vietnamese Party General Secretary and State President
To Lam was an outstanding success, with Lam and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping
agreeing to enhance their comprehensive strategic cooperative partnership and to move
towards a shared future with strategic significance, according to an Australian expert.
Speaking to the Vietnam News Agency, Emeritus Professor Carl Thayer from the Australian
Defence Force Academy, the University of New South Wales, said that Xi personally pledged
to establish good working relations and personal friendship with Lam.
Vietnam News Agency, Vietnam Plus, August 22, 2024
https://en.vietnamplus.vn/afternoon-briefing-on-august-22-post292362.vnp

Politics: Vietnam Party Chief- President's Visit to China Hailed as Resounding Success
Vietnamese Party Chief and President To Lam's state visit to China was deemed highly
successful, said Professor Carl Thayer from the Australian Defense Force Academy,
the University of New South Wales.
Vietnam News Brief Service, August 23, 2024
Dow Jones Factiva

As South China Sea stakes ratchet ever higher, Vietnam seeks out calmer waters
“Vietnam’s strategy is to make official protest when [China] violates its sovereignty and
sovereign jurisdiction and to monitor China’s actions,” said Carl Thayer, an emeritus professor
at the University of New South Wales and an expert on Vietnam – describing Hanoi’s policy
towards maritime disputes as one of “cooperation and struggle”.
 17

In general, it refrains from escalating minor incidents, he said. Though Hanoi did become
more assertive after 2014, when a major diplomatic row erupted over a Chinese oil rig
moored off Vietnam’s central coast…
“Party-to-party ties in the form of high-level exchanges, theoretical seminars, hot lines, and
low-level exchanges are extremely important for the overall bilateral relationship,” Thayer
said…
Thayer said Lam, a former public security minister and long-standing member of the Central
Committee, was expected to continue this well-established approach.
“Vietnam and China play a game of cat and mouse in the South China Sea but refrain from
letting these encounters escalate,” Thayer said, adding that Hanoi purposefully deploys its
coastguard rather than its navy to monitor Chinese activities – in contrast to the Philippines’
more confrontational stance.
Bac Pham, South China Morning Post, August 24, 2024
Dow Jones Factiva
Reprinted:
Going with the flow: Vietnam's new leadership is doubling down on its 'bamboo diplomacy'
to navigate choppy geopolitical currents and protect economic gains
Bac Pham and Bennett Murray, This Week in Asia, South China Morning Post, August 25, 2024
Dow Jones Factiva

To Lam's rise to the top in Vietnam has been 'spectacular'. Are we witnessing the emergence
of a new strongman leader?
UNSW Canberra emeritus professor Carl Thayer said that Mr Lam was answerable to the
Vietnamese Communist Party's 200-member Central Committee in a way that Mr Xi was not.
"Mr Xi really is a strongman," he said.
"The political culture of Vietnam ... they would be aghast at Xi Jinping's power.
"[It's] the last thing they would want in Vietnam."
Nguyen Phu Trong was the only Vietnamese leader before Mr Lam to hold both positions, and
he relinquished the presidency after three years.
Dr Thayer said the National Assembly might vote to make someone else president when it
convened in October and Mr Lam was not guaranteed to get another term as general
secretary at the next party congress in 2026.
"He's in the running, but it's not assured," he said…
Policy direction already 'set in stone'
In the meantime, Dr Thayer said that the government's policy direction was already
effectively "set in stone".
Mr Lam has pledged to continue the anti-corruption campaign, pursue the government's
long-standing economic development goals and build on the existing "bamboo diplomacy"
 18

policy which involves creating strong ties with as many powers as possible, including both the
US and China.
"In a sense, he's been parachuted into the driving seat, but he hasn't got much choice but to
keep the foot on the accelerator and stay on the road," Dr Thayer said.
Mr Lam's first international visit this week was to China where he met with Mr Xi, which Dr
Thayer said was unsurprising as it was the largest communist country in the region.
Will Jackson, Australian Broadcasting Corporation (ABC) News, August 24, 2024
Dow Jones Factiva
‘

Ai sẽ thay ông Tô Lâm làm chủ tịch nước?

Ông Carl Thayer, giáo sư danh dự của Đại học New South Wales (Úc) [Mr Carl Thayer,
professor emeritus at the University of New South Wales (Australia)] chuyên phân tích chính
trị Việt Nam, nói với BBC ngày 29/8 rằng, ông Nguyễn Phú Trọng là người đã giữ chức tổng bí
thư từ năm 2011 và gánh vác trách nhiệm lẫn một khối lượng công việc nặng nề hơn nhiều so
với vị trí chủ tịch nước - chức danh mang tính nghi thức. Do đó, ông Trọng dễ dàng làm tròn
trọng trách cả hai vị trí…
Theo Giáo sư Carl Thayer, từ đây tới Đại hội Đảng 14 vào năm 2026, nếu vẫn kiêm nhiệm hai
chức vụ, ông Tô Lâm sẽ gánh vác nhiều trọng trách nặng nề. Vì thế, bầu chủ tịch nước mới
không chỉ giúp tránh tình trạng cá nhân thâu tóm quyền lực mà còn để ông Tô Lâm tập trung
làm tốt vai trò tổng bí thư.
"Có thể một số lãnh đạo cấp cao tỏ ra kiêng kị về việc cho phép một người nắm giữ quá nhiều
quyền lực hoặc cân nhắc về những lo ngại của các nhà đầu tư nước ngoài về sự ổn định chính
trị ở Việt Nam. Vì thế, việc khôi phục lại cơ chế lãnh đạo Tứ Trụ sẽ giúp trấn an những mối
quan ngại," Giáo sư Thayer nói với BBC…
Theo Giáo sư Carl Thayer, có tin đồn rằng quân đội muốn đề bạt ứng cử viên của mình vào vị
trí chủ tịch nước để cân bằng quyền lực đối với bên công an.
Bộ Chính trị hiện có 15 ủy viên, trong đó có sáu người xuất thân từ công an, ba người từ quân
đội. Ba người từ quân đội gồm: Thường trực Ban Bí thư Lương Cường, Bộ trưởng Quốc phòng
Phan Văn Giang và Trưởng ban Tuyên giáo Trung ương Nguyễn Trọng Nghĩa…
Một nhân vật được Giáo sư Carl Thayer đề cập nữa là Thượng tướng Nguyễn Trọng Nghĩa,
Trưởng ban Tuyên giáo Trung ương...
"Việc bổ nhiệm một chủ tịch nước mới sẽ giúp khôi phục cơ cấu lãnh đạo Tứ Trụ và mang lại
sự an tâm cho các chính phủ nước ngoài cũng như các nhà đầu tư nước ngoài rằng Việt Nam
sẽ tiếp tụ duy trì được sự ổn định về mặt chính trị, từ đó chính sách đối nội và đối ngoại cũng
sẽ được duy trì, tránh những biến động bất ngờ," Giáo sư Thayer kết luận.
BBC Vietnamese, August 29, 2024
https://www.bbc.com/vietnamese/articles/cn7ljeg0jreo
 19

Vietnam’s bamboo diplomacy affirms national position: experts

Emeritus Professor Carl Thayer from the Australian Defense Force Academy commented
that Vietnam has established an extensive political and diplomatic network with all major
powers and key multilateral organizations globally. This has enhanced her reputation and
international standing, while also supporting economic development.
Vietnam News Summary, August 29, 2024
Reprinted:
Vietnam’s bamboo diplomacy affirms national position: experts
Viet Nam News, August 30, 2024
Dow Jones Factiva

Civil Liberties at Risk Under Vietnam’s Tô Lâm

“Tô Lâm was appointed one of five deputy chairmen of the Central Steering on Anti-
Corruption that was the spearhead of Trong’s blazing furnace campaign,” Carl Thayer, an
emeritus professor of politics at the University of New South Wales, told me. “As Minister of
Public Security, Tô Lâm was also responsible for the harassment, intimidation, arrest and
imprisonment of political and civil society activists.”…
Tô Lâm’s self-styled campaign to root out “corruption” and enhance state security also
coincidentally targeted political opponents within his own party. “Tô Lâm used the
Investigative Police Department of the Ministry of Public Security to gather evidence of
corruption by the President Vo Van Thuong, the Chairman of the National Assembly Vuong
Dinh Hue, and the Permanent member of the party Secretariat Truong Thi Mai,” says Thayer.
“These were the three most powerful figures in the leadership under General Secretary Trong.
All were pressured into resigning in turn.”
Caleb Mills, Fair Observer, August 30, 2024
https://www.fairobserver.com/region/asia_pacific/civil-liberties-at-risk-under-vietnams-to-
lam/#

Vietnam’s parliament appoints new ministers after To Lam take top job
Carl Thayer, emeritus professor at the University of New South Wales Canberra, said it
would be unusual for Lam to remain both party secretary general and president.
“Since reunification of Vietnam and the adoption of the 1992 constitution, Vietnam’s party
leaders have consistently rejected the idea of merging the office of party general secretary
and state president,” said Thayer.
He said if Lam was able to concentrate on a single role it would give him more time to
oversee the selection of the next generation of leaders at the party congress scheduled for
early 2026 and continue Trong’s “blazing furnace” campaign.
“No doubt To Lam will be vigorous in opposing any potential candidate involved in
corruption or who fails to meet party ethical standards,” he added.
 20

“But the process of vetting must be viewed as fair and balanced across the entire Vietnam
Communist Party and not a particular faction or region.”
Mike Firn, Radio Free Asia, August 26, 2024
https://www.rfa.org/english/news/vietnam/national-assembly-deputy-prime-ministers-
08262024043548.html
Reprinted:
Vietnam’s parliament appoints new ministers after To Lam take top job
GlobalSecurity.org, August 27, 2024
Dow Jones Factiva

Future Commitments
“Vietnam’s Bamboo Diplomacy,” 9DashLine, forthcoming.
“Sabina Reef: New Flashpoint in China-Philippine Relations,” East Asia Forum, forthcoming.
“What the Philippines should do to counter China on Scarborough, Sabina and the Second
Thomas Shoal,” Presentation to Eight Years After Arbitral Tribunal Award: Challenges and
Intervention on Peace, Security, and Stability in the South China (West Philippine) Sea, 14th
Virtual International Conference on the West Philippine Sea, hosted by the National Youth
Movement for the West Philippine Sea, Manila. Philippines, September 7, 2024.
“Australia and Vietnam: Contrasting Cases of Deterrence,” Podcast, National Institute of
Deterrence Studies, TBC.
Panelist, Evolving Global and Regional Order, International Programme for Development and
Stability, Institute of Strategic Studies Research and Analysis, National Defence University,
Islamabad, Pakistan, September 24-26, 2024.
Asia-Pacific Leadership Network, Asia Dialogue on China-US Relations Conference, Jakarta,
Indonesia, Spring (September-December) 2024 TBC.
“Naval Modernisation, Strategic Rebalancing, and Security in the First Island Chain, 1949-
1996,” in John Jenner, ed., Bounding Power in the Island Chains: The Efficacy of Maritime
Diplomacy in Sino-American Relations, 1949-1996 (Rothermere American Institute, Oxford
University 2025).
“Cambodian Foreign Policy After 1953,” Presentation to International Conference on History
of Cambodia: Cambodia in the French Colonial Period, hosted by the Royal Academy of
Cambodia, Phnom Penh Hotel, Phnom Penh, Cambodia, November 7-8, 2024
Presentation to “ASEAN Centrality in Theory and Reality. A Contribution to the Settlement
of the South China Sea Conflict?” Hybrid Conference, Universität Hamburg, Hamburg,
Germany, November 29, 2024, 10-18 h CET.
 21

THAYER CONSULTANCY PUBLICATIONS

BIBLIOGRAPHIES
Australia-Vietnam Relations, 1973-2023: Papers and Presentations by Carlyle A. Thayer,
Thayer Consultancy Bibliography No 1, June 24, 2023.
South China Sea Code of Conduct, 2018-2023: A Bibliography, Thayer Consultancy
Bibliography No. 2, August 6, 2023.
Vietnam’s Relations with the Russian Federation, Thayer Consultancy Bibliography No. 3,
August 16, 2023.
Vietnam People’s Army, 1976-2023, Thayer Consultancy Bibliography No. 4, October, 2023.

DISCUSSION PAPERS
Rough Waters Ahead for Vietnam-China Relations: A Critical Review, Thayer Consultancy
Discussion Paper No. 1, October 2020.
Vietnam Aligns with China and Plays the United States: A Critique, Thayer Consultancy
Discussion Paper No. 2, March 2023.
Recent Leadership Change in Vietnam: A Critique, Thayer Consultancy Discussion Paper No.
3, March 2023.
Vietnam-ASEAN Relations Under General Secretary To Lam, Thayer Consultancy
Discussion Paper No. 4, August 2024.

READERS
Leadership Change in Vietnam, Thayer Consultancy Reader No. 1, April 11, 2023.
Vietnam People’s Army, 2016-2020, Thayer Consultancy Reader No. 2, April 12, 2023.
Vietnam People’s Army, 2021-2023, Thayer Consultancy Reader No. 3, April 12, 2023.
Vietnam-United States Relations, 2021, Thayer Consultancy Reader No. 4, April 19, 2023.
Vietnam-United States Relations, 2022, Thayer Consultancy Reader No. 5, April 20, 2023.
Vietnam-United States Relations, 2023, Thayer Consultancy Reader No. 6, April 21, 2023.
Vietnam and Australia: Strategic Partners, 2018-2023, Thayer Consultancy Reader No. 7,
April 22, 2023.
Revival of the Quad, 2017-2018, Thayer Consultancy Reader No. 8, May 15, 2023.
The Quad and the Indo-Pacific, 2019-2013, Thayer Consultancy Reader No. 9, May 15, 2023.
Cambodia, 2021-2023, Thayer Consultancy Reader No. 10, July 25, 2023.
Vietnam-Russia Relations, 2016-2023, Thayer Consultancy Reader No. 11, August 20, 2023.
Vo Van Thuong Resigns as President of Viet Nam, Thayer Consultancy Reader No. 12,
March 27, 2024.
Leadership Change in Vietnam, Thayer Consultancy Reader No. 13, May 27, 2024.
 22

Vietnam-Russia Relations, 2023-2024, Thayer Consultancy Reader No. 14, July 6, 2024.
General Secretary Nguyen Phu Trong’s Legacy, Thayer Consultancy Reader No. 15, August
10, 2024.
To Lam General Secretary of the Communist Party of Vietnam, Thayer Consultancy Reader
No. 16, August 23, 2024.
Maritime Disputes and Defence Cooperation in the South China Sea, Thayer Consultancy
Reader No. 17, August 26, 2024.