MASENO UNIVERSITY

UNIVERSITY EXAMINATION
(Main Campus)
MAS 103: INTRODUCTION TO PROBABILITY THEORY TIME: 2 HOURS
Answer question 1 and any other two questions

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Question 1 (30 Marks)
a) Three events 𝐴𝐴, 𝐵𝐵 and 𝐶𝐶 are defined in the sample space 𝑆𝑆. The events 𝐴𝐴 and
𝐵𝐵 are mutually exclusive and 𝐴𝐴 and 𝐶𝐶 are independent.
i) Draw a Venn diagram to illustrate the relationships between the 3
events and the sample space. (2 Marks)
ii) Given that 𝑝𝑝(𝐴𝐴) = 0.2, 𝑝𝑝(𝐵𝐵) = 0.4 and 𝑝𝑝(𝐴𝐴 ∪ 𝐶𝐶) = 0.7, find
a. 𝑝𝑝(𝐴𝐴|𝐶𝐶) (1 Mark)
b. 𝑝𝑝(𝐴𝐴 ∪ 𝐵𝐵) (1 Mark)
c. 𝑝𝑝(𝐶𝐶) (2 Marks)
b) A continuous random variable 𝑋𝑋 has a probability density function given by
1 − 𝑘𝑘𝑘𝑘 , 1 ≤ 𝑥𝑥 ≤ 3
𝑓𝑓(𝑥𝑥) = �
0, 𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒ℎ𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒
Determine
i) 𝑘𝑘 (2 Marks)
ii) 𝐸𝐸(𝑋𝑋) (2 Marks)
iii) 𝑉𝑉𝑉𝑉𝑉𝑉(𝑋𝑋) (3 Marks)
iv) 𝐹𝐹(2) (3 Marks)

c) The probability of a mug produced at a pottery being faulty is 0.2. Find the
probability that in a random sample of 6 mugs
i) Exactly one mug is faulty (3 Marks)
ii) More than two mugs are faulty (2 Marks)
iii) The mugs are sold in sets of six. Otieno buys 10 sets. Find the
probability that exactly 3 of the sets contain more than 2 faulty mugs.
(3 Marks)
d) A health club lets members use, on each visit, its facilities for as long as they
wish. The club’s records suggest that the length of a visit can be modelled by
a normal distribution with mean 90 minutes. Only 20.05% of members stay
for more than 125 minutes. Find

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 i) the standard deviation of the normal distribution. (correct to 2 dec. pl.)
(4 Marks)
ii) the probability that a visit lasts less than 25 minutes. (correct to 4 dec.
pl.) (3 Marks)

Question 2 (20 Marks)

a) A random variable 𝑌𝑌 has its moment generating function given by
𝑡𝑡 −1�
𝑀𝑀𝑌𝑌 (𝑡𝑡) = 𝑒𝑒 8�𝑒𝑒 , 𝑡𝑡 > 0
Determine
i) 𝑝𝑝(𝑌𝑌 > 12) (2 Marks)
ii) 𝑝𝑝(7 < 𝑌𝑌 ≤ 17) (3 Marks)
b) The random variable 𝑋𝑋 is the number of misprints per page in the first draft
of a novel. State two conditions under which a Poisson distribution is a
suitable model for 𝑋𝑋 (2 Marks)
c) The number of misprints per page has a Poisson distribution with mean 2.5.
Find the probability that
i) A randomly chosen page has no misprints (3 Marks)
ii) The total number of misprints on 2 randomly chosen pages is more
than 7 (5 Marks)
d) The first chapter contains 20 pages. Using a suitable approximation find, to
2 decimal places, the probability that the chapter will contain fewer than 40
misprints. (5 Marks)

Question 3 (20 Marks)

a) The lifetime 𝑋𝑋 in tens of hours of a battery has a cumulative distribution
function 𝐹𝐹(𝑥𝑥) given by
0, 𝑥𝑥 < 1
4 2
𝐹𝐹(𝑥𝑥) = � (𝑥𝑥 + 2𝑥𝑥 − 3) , 1 ≤ 𝑥𝑥 ≤ 1.5
9
1, 𝑥𝑥 > 1.5

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 i) Find the median of 𝑋𝑋, giving your answer to 3 significant figures.
(3 Marks)
ii) Find, in full, the probability density function of the random variable 𝑋𝑋
(2 Marks)
iii) Find 𝑝𝑝(𝑋𝑋 ≥ 1.2) (2 Marks)
iv) A camping lantern runs on 4 batteries, all of which must be working.
Four new batteries are put in the lantern. Find the probability that the
lantern will still be still working after 12 hours. (3 Marks)
b) Kiprotich catches a bus to work every morning. According to the timetable
the bus is due at 8 a.m., but Kiprotich knows that the bus can arrive at a
random time between five minutes early and 9 minutes late. The random
variable 𝑋𝑋 represents the time, in minutes, after 7.55 a.m. when the bus
arrives.
i) Suggest a suitable model for the distribution of 𝑋𝑋 and specify it fully.
(2 Marks)
ii) Calculate the mean time of arrival of the bus. (2 Marks)
iii) Find the cumulative distribution function of 𝑋𝑋. (4 Marks)
iv) Kiprotich will be late for work if the bus arrives after 8.05 a.m. Find
the probability that Kiprotich is late for work. (2 Marks)

Question 4 (20 Marks)

a) A company assembles drills using components from two sources. Goodbuy
(G) supplies 85% of the components and Amart (A) supplies the rest. It is
known that 3% of the components supplied by Goodbuy are faulty (F) and 6%
of those supplied by Amart are faulty.
i) Represent this information on a tree diagram. (3 Marks)
ii) An assembled drill is selected at random. Find the probability that it is
not faulty. (2 Marks)
iii) An assembled drill is selected at random and found to be faulty. Find
the probability that it was supplied by Amart supplies (2 Marks)

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b) The random variable 𝑋𝑋 is normally distributed with mean 79 and variance
144. Find
i) 𝑝𝑝(𝑋𝑋 < 70) (3 Marks)
ii) 𝑝𝑝(64 < 𝑋𝑋 < 96)

(3 Marks)

Figure 1

iii) It is known that 𝑝𝑝(79 − 𝑎𝑎 ≤ 𝑋𝑋 ≤ 79 + 𝑏𝑏) = 0.6463. This information is

shown in Figure 1. Given that 𝑝𝑝(𝑋𝑋 ≥ 79 + 𝑏𝑏) = 2𝑝𝑝(𝑋𝑋 ≤ 79 − 𝑎𝑎), find the
area of the shaded region. (3 Marks)
iv) Find the value of 𝑏𝑏. (4 Marks)

Question 5 (20 Marks)

3 1
a) Events A and B are independent. Given also that 𝑝𝑝(𝐴𝐴) = 4 and 𝑝𝑝(𝐴𝐴 ∩ 𝐵𝐵 ′ ) = 4.

Find
i) 𝑝𝑝(𝐴𝐴 ∩ 𝐵𝐵) (1 Mark)
ii) 𝑝𝑝(𝐵𝐵) (2 Marks)
iii) 𝑝𝑝(𝐴𝐴′ ∩ 𝐵𝐵 ′ ) (2 Marks)
b) A random variable X has moment generating function given by
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 𝑒𝑒 𝑡𝑡
𝑀𝑀𝑋𝑋 (𝑡𝑡) =
(1 − 𝑡𝑡)
Determine
i) 𝐸𝐸(𝑋𝑋) (3 Marks)
ii) 𝐸𝐸(𝑋𝑋 2 ) (3 Marks)
c) The random variable X is such that 𝐸𝐸(𝑋𝑋) = 𝑎𝑎 and 𝑉𝑉𝑉𝑉𝑉𝑉(𝑋𝑋) = 𝑏𝑏. Find expressions
in terms of 𝑎𝑎 and 𝑏𝑏 for
i) 𝐸𝐸(2𝑋𝑋 + 3) (1 Mark)
ii) 𝑉𝑉𝑉𝑉𝑉𝑉(2𝑋𝑋 + 3) (2 Marks)
iii) 𝐸𝐸(𝑋𝑋 2 ) (3 Marks)
iv) Show that 𝐸𝐸[(𝑋𝑋 + 1)2 ] = (𝑎𝑎 + 1)2 + 𝑏𝑏 (3 Marks)