EURES

Report on labour shortages

and surpluses
2022

#EURESjobs
eures.ec.europa.eu
ela.europa.eu
Neither the European Labour Authority nor any person acting on behalf of the European Labour Authority is
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Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European Union, 2023
© European Labour Authority, 2022
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report does not reflect the views or the official position of the European Labour Authority.
Print ISBN 978-92-9401-055-1 DOI 10.2883/67288 HP-AA-23-001-EN-C
PDF ISBN 978-92-9401-054-4 DOI 10.2883/50704 HP-AA-23-001-EN-N
CONTENTS
Executive Summary. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
1. Background, scope, and methodology of the report. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11

1.1. Background . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
1.2. Scope and methodology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11

2. Recent developments on the European labour market. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14

3. Identified labour market imbalances . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18

3.1. Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18
3.2. Shortage occupations across Europe. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18
3.3. Widespread and severe shortages occupations in 2022 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20
3.4. Widespread and severe shortages over time . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23
3.5. Surplus occupations across Europe. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26
3.6. Widespread and severe surplus occupations in 2022. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27
3.7. Comparing the quantitative findings with relevant external sources. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30
3.8. Chapter summary. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34

4. Geographic distribution of labour market imbalances and cross-border labour mobility. . . . . . . . . 35

4.1. National distribution of widespread shortages. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35

4.2. National distribution of widespread surpluses . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36
4.3. Matching shortages and surpluses across borders . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37
4.4. Regional labour market imbalances and labour market flows. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39
4.5. Chapter summary. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44

5. Relationship between labour market imbalances and vulnerable groups . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45

5.1. Number of workers employed in shortage and surplus occupations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45

5.2. Labour market imbalances and gender. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46
5.3. Labour market imbalances and youth . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49
5.4. Labour market imbalances and educational attainment. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52
5.5. Labour market imbalances , labour mobility and migration. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55
5.6. Chapter summary. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 58

6. An exploration of the causes of labour shortages and surpluses. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59

6.1. Introduction. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59
6.2. Aggregate shifts in the demand for and supply of labour. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61
6.3. Qualitative changes in the demand for and supply of labour: The occupational dimension. . . . 71
 6.4. The workplace dimension. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 80
6.5. Chapter summary. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 84

7. Conclusions and policy pointers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 85

7.1. Summary of the main findings . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 85

7.2. Policy options . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 87

8. References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 90
9. Annexes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 93
Annex 1: Detailed methodology for data collection . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 93
Annex 2: Template for data collection. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 95
Annex 3: Questionnaire for NCOs. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 98
Annex 4: Cross-border matches. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 100
LIST OF FIGURES
Figure 1 - Methodology of the study. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
Figure 2 - Output and employment growth in the EU27, 2008–2021. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14
Figure 3 - Unemployment and inactivity rates, 2010–2022. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
Figure 4 - Unemployment rate by Member State, 2020, 2021, and 2022. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
Figure 5 - Vacancy rate in the EU27, 2010Q1 to 2022Q2. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16
Figure 6 - Beveridge curve, 2009–2021. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17
Figure 7 - Total number of shortage occupations identified by each country, 2022. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19
Figure 8 – Severity of shortages by broad occupation group, 2022 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22
Figure 9 - Total number of surplus occupations identified by each country, 2022. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27
Figure 10 - Severity of surpluses by broad occupation group, 2022. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29
Figure 11 – Share of firms reporting labour shortages, 2018–2022. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30
Figure 12 - Countries where the forecast (2021–2026)
for health professionals is equal or above the EU average. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31
Figure 13 -Countries where the forecast for building trades is equal or
above the EU average (2021–2026). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32
Figure 14 - Countries where the forecast for ICT professionals is equal or
above the EU average (2021–2026) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33
Figure 15 - Share of the most widespread shortages by reporting country, 2022. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35
Figure 16 - Share of the most widespread surpluses by reporting country, 2022 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36
Figure 17 – Cross-border match between most widespread shortages and surpluses, 2022 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38

Figure 18 - Share of females in the EU27 (A) and in widespread shortages (B) and
surplus occupations (C), 2021. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46
Figure 19 - Share of females in the most widespread shortage occupations, 2021. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47
Figure 20 - Share of females in the most widespread surplus occupations, 2021 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 48
Figure 21 - Comparison of share of youth under 30 in EU27 and
in widespread shortages and surpluses, 2021 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49
Figure 22 - Comparison of share of education levels in EU27 (A) and in widespread
shortages (B) and surpluses (C), 2021 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52
Figure 23 - Education profile of shortage occupations, 2021 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53
Figure 24 - Education profile of surplus occupations, 2021. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54

Figure 25 -Comparison of share of migrants in EU27 (A) and

in widespread shortages (B) and surpluses (C), 2021. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55
Figure 26 - Share of migrants in widespread shortage occupations, 2021. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56
Figure 27 - Share of migrants in widespread surplus occupations, 2021. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 57
Figure 28 - Change in employment 2021Q3 to 2022Q3 (%). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61
Figure 29 - Percentage point change in the vacancy rate 2021Q3 to 2022Q3 (%). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 62
Figure 30 - Unemployment and vacancies rates by Member State, 2022Q3. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 62
Figure 31 - Activity rates by Member State, 2021. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 64
Figure 32 – Labour market slack by Member State, 2022Q3. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65
Figure 33 - Population change by Member State, 2010–2021. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66
Figure 34 - Proportion of the population aged 15-24 years, 2010 and 2021. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66
Figure 35 - Proportion of the population aged 65+ years, 2010 and 2021. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 67
Figure 36 - Net migration in Member States, 2019 (including intra-EU mobility and extra-EU migration). . . . 67
Figure 37 - Labour market slack by region, 2021. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 70
Figure 38 - People aged 50+ as a share of employment in each occupation, 2011 and 2021. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 77
Figure 39 – Percentage of workforce aged over 50 years by sector, 2021. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 78
Figure 40 - Occupations and sectors in which incumbents face a relatively high risk of job loss from. . . . . . . . 79
Figure 41 - Changes in levels of over-qualification by country, 2010–2020. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 81
Figure 42 - Job quality by occupation, 2021 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 83

LIST OF TABLES
Table 1 - Participating countries, 2022. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
Table 2 - Main sources used to identify shortages and surpluses, 2022. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
Table 3 – Shortage occupations reported by many countries and the degree of severity, 2022. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20
Table 4 – Comparison of widespread shortages over time, 2017–2022. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23
Table 5 - Comparison of most severe shortages over time, 2017–2022 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25
Table 6 - Surplus occupations reported by many countries and the degree of severity, 2022. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28
Table 7 - Share of workers under 30 years employed in widespread shortages in 2021 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50
Table 8 - Share of workers under 30 years of age employed in widespread surpluses in 2021. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51
Table 9 - Factors influencing the demand for, and supply, of labour. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 60
Table 10 - Economic activity rates by age, sex and citizenship, 2010 and 2021. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63
Table 11 - Top 10 and bottom 10 regions by employment growth, 2011–2021. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69
Table 12 - Occupational change in the EU27, 2011–2021. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71
Table 13 - Qualification change in the EU27, 2011–2021 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 72
Table 14 - Employment change by economic activity in the EU27, 2011–2021 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 72
COUNTRY CODES

Code Country Code Country Code Country Code Country

AT Austria EE Estonia IT Italy PT Portugal

BE Belgium EL Greece LT Lithuania RO Romania

BG Bulgaria ES Spain LU Luxemburg SE Sweden

CH Switzerland FI Finland LV Latvia SI Slovenia

CY Cyprus FR France MT Malta SK Slovakia
CZ Czechia HR Croatia NL The Netherlands
DE Germany HU Hungary NO Norway
DK Denmark IE Ireland PL Poland

ACRONYMS

Acronym Full title

CBP EURES Cross-border partnership

Cedefop European Centre for the Development of Vocational Training
ECE European Centre of Expertise
EFTA European Free Trade Association
ELA European Labour Authority
EU European Union
EURES European Employment Services
ISCED ‘11 International Standard Classification of Education; 2011
ISCO ‘08 International Standard Classification of Occupations; 2008
LFS Labour Force Survey
NCOs EURES National Coordination Offices
NUTS Nomenclature of territorial units for statistics
 Acronym Full title

PES Public Employment Service

PP Percentage points
STEM Science, Technology, Engineering, Mathematics

DEFINITIONS

Variable Definition

The proportion of people outside the labour force (i.e. economically inactive
Inactivity rate
persons) in the total population of the same age group.
Persons who are unqualified or have only participated in lower secondary
ISCED 0-2
education or the second stage of basic education.
Persons who have completed the secondary school cycle but have not
ISCED 3-5
progressed to further education or training programmes.
Persons who have participated in programmes that are classified as being on a
ISCED 5+
level above the basic secondary school cycle.
Labour market
A misalignment between the demand and supply of labour in an economy.
imbalances
An unmet demand for paid labour within a given population. The term
Labour market
describes the shortfall between the workers’ desired amount of work and the
slack
amount of paid work available.
When there is a sufficient number of skilled persons, but an insufficient number
Labour shortage
of them take up employment in the occupation and location in question.
When there is a higher number of skilled persons looking to take up
Labour surplus employment in the occupation and location in question than there are
roles available.
Severe shortage is equivalent to a shortage of a high magnitude, as defined by
Severe shortage
NCOs (see Annex 1 and 2 for more details).
Skills shortage When there is an insufficient supply of persons with the appropriate skills.
When the supply of persons with the appropriate skills is greater than the
Skills surplus
market requires.
Widespread A shortage that has been identified by NCOs in at least 11 countries (see Annex
shortage 1 and 2 for more details).
Widespread A surplus that has been identified by at least five countries (see Annex 1 and 2
surplus for more details).
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Prevalence of labour shortages and surpluses This reluctance to move in search of employment has
in Europe created clusters of disadvantaged jobseekers in specific
regions in Europe. Examples include regions in the
The analyses of labour market imbalances in the EU27,
south of Italy where over half of the female labour force
Norway and Switzerland conducted in the second
is unemployed, and high unemployment among older
and third quarter of 2022 and mostly based on data
workers (55+) in many regions in Lithuania and Bulgaria.
provided by EURES National Coordination Offices, found
that 29 countries experience labour shortages and 24 The study also explores examples of cross-border
labour surpluses. The occupations which dominated movements of labour. These movements are particularly
the list of widespread shortages were related to evident between regions which are physically adjacent
software, healthcare and construction and engineering to one another and where the working conditions
craft occupations. The occupations which dominated and levels of remuneration are superior in one region
the list of widespread surpluses were clerical related compared to the other region. However, cross-border
occupations, elementary occupations and professional labour mobility is not confined to these areas and there
occupations in the humanities and in the arts. is a general movement of labour from less developed
regions in Central-Eastern Europe to highly developed
Most of the shortage occupations (i.e., the demand
and prosperous regions in the north and west of the EU.
for those occupations is greater than the supply of
jobseekers with required skills at the required location)
Main reasons for labour market imbalances
were rated as shortages of high magnitude and an
analysis over time shows that they tend to have been The study places the emergence of labour market
identified as shortage for the last five years. These results imbalances in the context of the major drivers of change
suggest that many of the shortages are persistent and in the labour market. These include the rapid diffusion of
are of a structural nature rather than transient. new digital technologies to every sector of the European
economy, the ageing of the European population,
Regional dimension of labour market the transition to a climate-neutral economy and the
imbalances working conditions associated with being employed in
different occupations.
An analysis of the main regional labour market
imbalances within the countries participating in the The rapid diffusion of new digital technologies is
study shows that in many cases the imbalances reflect reflected in the presence at all levels of occupations
a difference in the level of economic development which require STEM (science, technology, engineering,
and in education facilities between regions. In Eastern and mathematics) qualifications among the list of
Europe, the less developed areas tend to be located shortage occupations which have been identified by
in the east of the country; in Scandinavia, they are most countries. The ageing of the European population
located in the north, while in Italy they are located in the has contributed to the presence of a number of
south. Less developed areas in general do not attract healthcare occupations on this list, while working
inward investment because the local labour force does conditions may also be a factor in the identification
not possess the high-level technical skills that many of widespread shortages in hospitality. In addition,
companies require. In turn, skills upgrading is difficult there is a reference to more recent developments and
to achieve in an environment of more limited provision their impact on labour market imbalances such as the
of services of public interest, including education and COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
training providers. Furthermore, in many countries, The former has had a significant impact on certain
there is a reluctance on the part of many jobseekers to sectors, particularly hospitality which suffered adversely
migrate to other regions within their own country in as a result of restrictions on the freedom of movement
pursuit of employment. imposed in many countries in 2020 and 2021 in order to
stem the spread of the virus. In contrast, the European
software sector flourished during the pandemic. There

9
is evidence that the sector is now retrenching and laying Conclusions
off a considerable number of staff. The pandemic has
also had a more general impact on labour market The findings of this report confirm that there are
imbalances. Many European employers have significant labour shortages and surpluses throughout
reported that a significant number of their staff did the economies of the EU27, Norway and Switzerland.
not return to their pre-pandemic employment when This imbalance in labour demand and supply exists
restrictions were removed, and this has created at both the national and the regional level, and it
labour shortages for many of them - particularly in is due to a multiplicity of factors. It is noteworthy
countries such as Germany. that the report found that employment in many
of the most often identified shortage and surplus
Profile of workers in shortage and surplus occupations is dominated by one gender. Factors such
occupations as new technologies, the transition to a climate-neutral
economy, the ageing of the workforce and conditions
The analysis found that some segments of the population
of work and employment have all made significant
are overly represented in surplus occupations. For
contributions to the evolving relationship between
example, two out of every three of those employed
labour demand and supply in Europe. The imbalance is
in surplus occupations were women and only one in
present at every level of education. The overall situation
three employed in shortage occupations were women.
however is that most of those employed in either the
Furthermore, if the healthcare occupations were
widespread shortage or surplus occupations have a
removed from the list of widespread shortages, the
medium level of education – albeit those employed in
share of women employed in the identified shortage
the shortage occupations tend to have medium level
occupations would be even lower.
qualifications of a more technical nature.
This is because of the dominance STEM-related
There is a considerable degree of labour mobility
qualifications among the widespread shortage
between European countries, and between European
occupations. Shortage of jobseekers with these
countries and other countries. In general, this movement
qualifications were reported at every level, including
is motivated by a desire to find employment which
professional, technical and most of all, craft level –
offers higher remuneration and improved conditions of
particularly for construction and engineering craft
work and employment.
occupations. Indeed, there was not a significant
difference between the education profiles of those who The report found that the lack of the skills required
were employed in the shortage occupations compared by employers in the local labour market is a major
to those who were employed in surplus occupations. contributary factor in the level of labour shortages and
The medium level of education (ISCED 3-4) was the surpluses in Europe, and consequently any strategy
highest level of education attained by most of those designed to resolve these imbalances must include a
employed in both shortage and surplus occupations. significant role for the education and training system.
The share of those born outside the country in which
they were employed in the shortage occupations was
higher than the national average, but this was also the
case for those employed in the surplus occupations
although the share was marginally lower than in the
case of shortage occupations. Nevertheless, a profile
of very disadvantaged workers can be drawn from the
findings of this report. That profile includes women who
are poorly qualified, born outside the country of their
employment and of a young age and are employed in
surplus occupations.

10
1. B
 ACKGROUND, SCOPE, AND
METHODOLOGY OF THE REPORT
1.1. Background
The present report is produced in line with Article 30 of EURES Regulation (EU) 2016/589, which states that
‘Each Member State shall, in particular, collect and analyse gender/disaggregated information on […] labour
shortages and labour surpluses on national and sectoral labour markets, paying particular attention to the most
vulnerable groups in the labour market and the regions most affected by unemployment’ and that ‘The EURES
National Coordination Offices (NCOs) shall be responsible for sharing the available information within the EURES
network and contributing to the joint analysis’.
While previous yearly editions of the report focused on the identification of shortage and surplus occupations
as reported by NCOs, the current 2022 report goes beyond previous reports by including a more intensive
focus on the impact of labour market imbalances in Europe on vulnerable groups, and by providing an analysis
of the factors which have given rise to labour market imbalances in Europe.

1.2. Scope and methodology

The report is based on different data-gathering tools and methodologies of analysis, which are summarised in
the diagram below.

Figure 1 – Methodology of the study

QUALITATIVE ANALYSIS QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS

Trends: Greening, working Questionnaires Widespead

Most severe
conditions, regional to NCOs shortages/
shortages
dimension, demography (primary data) surpluses

Gender National
LFS Cedefop
forecast data
Age Data sources
Literature General trends, occupational-
review specific effects, national/regional
and field effects, future prospects Education
work Qualitative
Migration questionnaires
to NCOs
External
datasets
Detailed enumeration of causes and impact of
labour imbalances including regionalisation, Impact of shortages, Regional
greening, demographics, working conditions and surpluses on vulnerable differences at the
technology groups country level

Source: Author’s own elaboration

11
As shown on the right-hand side of Figure 1, the quantitative is in many respects similar to the methodology applied in
analysis is based on a questionnaire circulated to NCOs previous editions of the report, to ensure comparability of
(see Annex 2); answers to the questionnaire represent the results. However, it does contain some important changes to
primary source for labour market imbalances as presented in the data collection template submitted to NCOs1 , i.e.
this report. Additional sources used are data extracted from
the European Labour Force (LFS) database; and detailed – no limit to the number of shortages or surpluses to be
CEDEFOP forecasts. The analysis also makes use of national identified;
data sources, which were utilised by NCOs to identify regional – requirement for an objective assessment of magnitude
differences (see Chapter 4). of shortage or surplus;
The general results of the quantitative analysis were – indication of driver of shortage or surplus; and
validated by reference to the results of a number of studies – questions on the impact of the transition to a climate-
which were undertaken around the same time as this neutral economy, new technology and working
study. However, there is also a more detailed analysis conditions on labour market imbalances.
which compares the findings of this survey with the
CEDEFOP forecasts of skill shortages in each of the countries On the left-hand side Figure 1 shows that the methodology
surveyed in this report over the period 2021–2026. The includes a qualitative analysis which explores the context in
hypothesis being tested is that the geographic distribution which labour market imbalances emerge. The qualitative
of shortages identified in this report includes those analysis consisted of an extensive literature review focused on
countries where EU above average annual employment the causes of labour market imbalances. The review included
growth in these occupations were forecast over the documents (both reports and grey literature) published
period 2021–2026. between 2018 and 2022, mostly focusing on the EU level
There is also a detailed analysis of four characteristics of those with specific national examples. Information was then
who are employed in the EU27 in the widespread shortage triangulated with findings derived from the organisation of
and surplus occupations. These four personal characteristics three focus group meetings targeted to NCOs, employees’
are gender, education profile, age, and country of birth. The and employers’ representatives, as well as members of
purpose of creating these profiles is to assess the extent to the EU committee on cross-border mobility.2 To augment
which those working in shortage and surplus occupations data from the literature review and the focus groups, an
belong to specific population segments that tend to be additional (qualitative) questionnaire was circulated to the
disadvantaged on the labour market. NCOs seeking their views on a number of issues relating
to labour market imbalances – particularly the impact of
This is particularly important for those who are working in an regionalisation and cross-border movements on labour
occupationwhichhasbeenidentifiedasawidespreadsurplus market imbalances (see Annex 3). A detailed elaboration of
occupation, as the possibility of becoming unemployed the data collection methodology is included in Annex 1 to
is greater for them than those working in an identified this report.
shortage occupation. New paragraph quantitative analysis

Table 1 – Participating countries, 2022

Countries which submitted data on shortage occupations

AT, BE, BG, CH, CY, CZ, DE, DK, EE, EL, ES, FI, FR, HR, HU, IE, IT, LT, LU, LV, MT, NL, NO,
PL, PT, RO, SE, SI, SK

Countries which submitted data on surplus occupations

AT, BE, BG, CY, CZ, DE, DK, EE, EL, ES, FI, FR, HR, HU, LT, LU, LV, NO, NL, PT, RO, SE, SI, SK

Source: Analyses of data submitted by EURES National Coordination Offices

1 Details on the data collection methodology are provided in Annex 1.

2 Unfortunately, trade union representatives did not manage to attend the relevant meeting; to partially make up for this, briefings of
the main European-level trade unions on the issue of labour market imbalances were consulted and taken into consideration in the
literature review phase.

12
The questionnaires were completed in the summer responding to the questionnaire (see Table 2). The
of 2022 by 29 countries (see Table 1 above). Data source most frequently used was the administrative
received were quality checked for completeness and data of the Public Employment Service (PES). This
consistency and when necessary NCOs were contacted source was used by 18 countries and the indicator of
for clarifications to the data provided. This means that shortages and surpluses was the ratio of jobseekers to
in some instances data provided by NCOs had to be vacancies and the length of time it took to fill vacancies.
aligned and adjusted for comparability purposes: this
A total of 11 countries used different indicators –
might imply that the number of shortage and surplus
in the case of four countries, the identification of
occupations submitted on some of the templates
shortages was based on a recent study of the labour
may not be the number of shortages and surpluses
market, while three countries used a combination of
transferred to the database for further analyses (see
different sources.
Annex 1 for details).
Through PES administrative data – either on its own
In the case of 19 countries, the data submitted
or in combination with other indicators - 24 countries
referred to the first half of 2022, while in the case of
could identify surplus occupations. The most common
the other 10 countries, the data were based on the
indicator used was a significant surplus of jobseekers
latter half of 2021. A wide range of sources was used
when compared to the volume of vacancies for their
to identify shortage and surplus occupations by NCOs
qualifications and experience.

Table 2 – Main sources used to identify shortages and surpluses, 2022

Sources Number of countries

Primarily PES administrative data 19

Combination of different sources 3
National study on occupation demand 4
Occupation barometer 3
1
Expert opinion 1
Not stated 1

Source: Analyses of data submitted by EURES National Coordination Offices

Each NCO was asked to provide a list of shortages and are aggregated up to the level of 4-digit ISCO ’08
surpluses in their country – there was no maximum codes. Consequently, some useful information on
or minimum number stipulated. The NCOs were more refined descriptions of shortage and surplus
requested to provide the data in 4-digit ISCO ’08 occupations is lost. However, as a core objective
occupation codes. of this report is to compare labour shortages and
surpluses across the EU27 and Switzerland, Norway
It is important to note that many countries use a
and Iceland, and as the 4-digit ISCO ’08 code is the
bespoke and quite refined occupation classification
most granular occupation classification available in
system (e.g. Denmark, the Netherlands, etc.). In these
most of these countries, it is necessary to continue
cases, it is quite common for two or more unique
using that classification system until a more refined
occupation codes to align with the same 4-digit ISCO
system acquires general usage (e.g. ESCO).
’08 occupation code, when these bespoke codes

3 An occupation barometer is often based on qualitative data and has a shorter time horizon than a typical forecast.

13
2. R
 ECENT DEVELOPMENTS ON
THE EUROPEAN LABOUR MARKET
Over a relatively short period of time European economies and labour markets have experienced a series of
sharp shocks. After the financial crisis in 2008, Europe’s economy and labour market experienced a period of
prolonged growth. However, 2020 saw COVID-19, and the resulting economic lockdowns brought about a
precipitous fall in output. In 2020, real GDP growth fell by 6.1%, which was more than during the 2008 financial
crisis. At the beginning of COVID-19, employment levels steeply declined, but this began to subside as various
countries introduced furlough schemes to save jobs (Eurofound/JRC, 2022; Fana et al., 2020). Many people
remained in employment but were not working any hours.

Figure 2 – Output and employment growth in the EU27, 2008–2021

4
% growth over previous year

-2

-4

-6

-8
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Output Employment

Source: Eurostat National Accounts [NAMA_10_GDP] and Labour Force Survey [LFSA_EGAN]

Before the COVID-19 pandemic commenced the unemployment rate stood at 6.8% in June 2019. By June
2020 it had risen to 7.4%, before dropping to 6.1% in June 2022. At the time of writing, in December 2022,
the EU unemployment rate stands at a historically low level. Inactivity rates rose slightly during the pandemic,
indicating that some people may have withdrawn from the labour market during the pandemic but, as Figure 3
demonstrates, inactivity rates have returned to their pre-pandemic levels during 2022. Accordingly, one might
conclude that there is relatively little evidence, at least at the EU level, of a fall in economic activity levels
exacerbating the tightness of the EU labour market.

14
Figure 3 – Unemployment and inactivity rates, 2010–2022

35
30
25
Percentage

20
15
10
5
0
2010-Q1

2011-Q1

2012-Q1

2013-Q1

2014-Q1

2015-Q1

2016-Q1

2017-Q1

2018-Q1

2019-Q1

2020-Q1

2021-Q1

2022-Q1
2022-Q3
Unemployment rate Inactivity rate

Source: Eurostat Unemployment [UNE_RT_Q] and inactivity [LFSQ_IPGA]

Not all countries were affected to the same degree by COVID-19 as shown in Figure 4. While some Member
States have experienced a decline in unemployment levels since the height of the pandemic during 2020/2021,
countries such as Greece experienced relatively high increases in levels of unemployment (European Commission,
2022). It is also evident that not all population groups were affected equally by the pandemic. The employment of
young people, relatively low paid female workers, those on temporary contracts, and people working in sectors
where remote working proved to be difficult or impossible (such as manufacturing), were all adversely affected
by COVID-19 (Eurofound / JRC, 2022; Pouliakas and Branka, 2020). At the end of 2022 it was evident that the
employment situation of all these groups had improved (European Commission, 2022).

Figure 4 – Unemployment rate by Member State, 2020, 2021, and 2022

25
20
Unemployment rate (%)

15
10
5
0
EU27
Belgium
Bulgaria
Czechia
Denmark
Germany
Estonia
Ireland
Greece
Spain
France

Lithuania
Luxembourg
Hungary
Malta
Netherlands
Austria
Poland
Portugal
Romania
Slovenia
Slovakia
Finland
Sweden
Croatia
Italy
Cyprus
Latvia

2020-06 2021-06 2022-06

Source: Eurostat Unemployment [UNE_RT_Q]

15
With the end of the COVID-19 induced lockdowns The vacancy rate, as a measure of unmet demand for
the economy experienced a rapid bounce back labour, provides further insight into the degree of
during 2021/2022 with a resulting impact on the labour market tightness. As shown in Figure 5, there
demand for labour. The extent to which there is a has been a relatively sharp pick-up in the vacancy
reserve army of labour which can take-up these jobs rate over recent quarters. It has more or less doubled
has been decreasing over time. This is captured by over the period between 2020Q2, when lockdowns
Eurostat’s labour slack indicator which measures were introduced, and 2022Q2 when they had all been
the share of people in the extended labour market lifted across Europe. Over the longer-term, from 2010
who are not economically active but are potentially onwards, it is also apparent that the vacancy rate has
available to take-up work along with the share of been increasing over time but its rate of increase has
people unemployed or underemployed. In 2019Q2 accelerated over the last couple of years such that
it stood at 13.6% of the extended workforce, but this by 2022Q2 it stood at a substantially higher level
had dropped to 12.1% in 2022Q2. Over the last 10 than a simple extrapolation of its longer term trend
years, the extent of any labour market slack in the EU might suggest.
economy has been in decline (except for the period
during the pandemic when it increased).

Figure 5 – Vacancy rate in the EU27, 2010Q1 to 2022Q2

3.5

2.5
Vacancy rate (%)

1.5

0.5

0
2010-Q1

2011-Q1

2012-Q1

2013-Q1

2014-Q1

2015-Q1

2016-Q1

2017-Q1

2018-Q1

2019-Q1

2020-Q1

2021-Q1

2022-Q1
2022-Q3

Source: Eurostat job vacancy statistics [JVS_Q_NACE2]

The Beveridge curve provides a measure of labour shortages (or surpluses). Over time - the pandemic excepted
- it increasingly reveals that the EU is characterised by high levels of vacancies and relatively low levels of
unemployment. In other words, the EU increasingly faces labour shortages (see Figure 6).

16
Figure 6 – Beveridge curve, 2009–2021

2.6
2.5
2.4 2021Q4
2.3
2019Q4 2018Q4
2.2
2.1
2.0
Job vacancy rate (%)

1.9 2017Q4
1.8
1.7 2020Q4
1.6 2007Q4 2016Q4
1.5
2008Q4 2015...
1.4 2011Q4
2006Q4 2014Q4
1.3
1.2 2009Q4 2010Q4 2012Q4 2013Q4
1.1
1.0
6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Unemployment rate (%)

Source: Eurostat [jvs_q_nace2, lfsq_urgan]

The evidence points to Europe struggling to meet it points to the labour market tightening over a longer
the labour demands which have emerged in the period. This has taken place against a backdrop of
immediate aftermath of COVID-19. This is something other changes which affect the demand for labour.
which is common to countries outside of Europe with Demographic change, for instance, especially the
the OECD reporting that unemployment levels are ageing of the workforce, which has been reinforced in
at unprecedented low levels as employment growth some countries by high levels of emigration by relatively
has gathered pace with the creation of many more young people, has placed pressure on the demand
new jobs than those destroyed during the pandemic for labour. Technological change, digitalisation, and
(OECD, 2022). It is certainly the case that the rapid greening have all had an impact on the types of labour/
increase in economic activity following the ending of skills required by organisations. This can result in labour
the COVID-19 lockdowns has exacerbated the extent shortages existing side-by-side with surpluses where
to which the demand for labour outstrips its supply. there are skill mismatches. These issues are further
If one, however, looks at the longer-term trends then discussed in Chapter 6.

17
3. IDENTIFIED LABOUR
MARKET IMBALANCES
3.1. Introduction
This chapter contains a detailed profile of the purpose of exploring the findings from these reports
shortage and surplus occupations identified in is to establish whether the shortages identified in this
the 27 Member States of the European Union and report are similar to those identified in other reports.
Norway and Switzerland by the EURES NCOs in the
This chapter also includes a summary of labour market
summer and autumn of 2022. The information on
imbalances at the regional level in many of the larger
shortages and surpluses was provided to the NCOs
countries who participated in this study. The purpose
by the national Public Employment Services and a
of including a regional perspective is to ascertain
number of different indicators were used to identify
whether the shortages and surpluses reported by
shortages and surpluses (for further details on the
the NCOs at national level differ significantly from the
data collection methodology please refer to Annexes
labour market imbalances identified in the regions.
1 and 2).
The section on regional labour markets includes an
This chapter also contains a summary of a number of
analysis of how cross-border labour mobility in some
reports on skill shortages which were undertaken at
adjacent countries contributes to an alleviation of
roughly the same time as the survey of the NCOs. The
labour market imbalances.

3.2. Shortage occupations across Europe

The NCOs identified hundreds of shortages, covering about 400 distinct 4-digit occupations from a possible
total of 436 occupations in the 4-digits ISCO ‘08 nomenclature4. A statistical relationship could not be found
between the numbers employed in a country and the number of identified shortage occupations submitted
by the country.

4 In the case of most shortage occupations, they were identified by only one or two out of 29 countries.

18
Figure 7 – Total number of shortage occupations identified by each country, 2022

20

Source: Analysis of data submitted by EURES National Coordination Offices

The highest number of shortage occupations was food sector which expanded by over 40% – adding 2.8
submitted by Switzerland (240), Italy (205), the million additional workers to that sector. Traditional
Netherlands (166), Belgium (164), Norway (128), tourist destinations around the Mediterranean fared
Slovenia (107), Denmark (106), Estonia (97), France particularly well. Greece more than doubled the
(77) and Finland (60). The 10 countries that submitted numbers employed in food and accommodation,
the smallest number of shortages were Greece (6), while Italy (67%), Croatia (57%), and France (54%)
Czechia (12), Malta (16), Bulgaria (16), Luxemburg enjoyed strong employment growth as indeed did
(20), Cyprus (21), Spain (23), Ireland (24), Germany, Austria (54%)5.
(30), and Sweden (31).
The retail and wholesale sectors contributed almost 1
Despite the inclusion of Sweden and Germany among million workers to the overall increase in employment
the countries that submitted the lowest number during this period, but employment expanded by
of shortages, and of Italy and Slovenia among the at least half a million in most sectors, including
countries that submitted the highest numbers, the information technology, construction, professional
north-west of the European continent is prominently services, manufacturing, healthcare, and the arts.
represented among the countries that submitted the Significantly, over 60% of the increase of 740,000
most shortages occupations (see Figure 7). in the employment of construction workers over
this period was made up of building craft workers6.
The relaxation of the restrictions imposed as a result of
More information on the causes of labour market
the COVID-19 pandemic contributed to an increasing
imbalances can be found in Chapter 6.
number of identified shortage occupations. Notably,
the largest increase in employment over the period
2021 Q1 to 2022 Q2 was in the accommodation and
5 Ibid.
6 Ibid.

19
3.3. Widespread and severe shortages occupations in 2022
While a total of about 400 4-digit occupations were that of carpenter and joiner. Both plumbers and pipefitters
identified by the 29 countries covered by this study and building electricians are also building trades which
as shortage, 79 of these occupations were identified are within the top 10 occupations which were reported
as a shortage by only one country, while a further by a large number of countries, while painters and
61 occupations were identified by two countries and related workers, floor layers and tile setters, plasterers,
64 occupations were identified by three countries. and concrete placers and finishers, and roofers are also
Clearly, these occupations would qualify as niche building trades which are on the list.
shortages rather than widespread shortages.
Operative-level occupations associated with the
In this study, the definition of a widespread shortage construction industry such as earthmoving and related
is a shortage that has been identified by at least plant operators are also on the list - as are building labourers.
117 countries. This represents 38% of the countries in the Civil engineers – who typically require a university degree
study, and it produces a list of 38 shortage occupations. level qualification - are also on the list.
Those occupations are outlined in Table 3 below. The Many of the engineering trades which appear on the list
building trades have 15 different occupations on the list are also involved in the construction industry such as
and many of these occupations have been identified by welders and flame throwers, sheet metal workers, and
the NCOs as also being among the most severe shortages, structural metal preparers and erectors.
i.e. a shortage of a high magnitude, as identified by an
Four of the five software occupations in the 4-digit ISCO
objective source or criterion by NCOs (see Annex 1 for more
’08 classification also appear on the list of most widespread
details on the methodology).
shortages. These are software developers, applications
The occupation of bricklayer is the occupation which was programmers, systems analysts and software applications,
identified as a shortage by the highest number of countries developers and analysts not elsewhere classified (nec.).
(i.e., 19). This is closely followed by another building trade,

Table 3 – Shortage occupations reported by many countries and the degree of severity, 2022

Percentage
Number of of countries
countries who ranked
Occupation reporting the shortage as ‘high
occupation as
magnitude’8 (i.e.
a shortage
‘severe shortage’)

Bricklayers and related workers 19 57%

Carpenters and joiners 18 38%
Heavy truck and lorry drivers 18 73%
Metal working machine tool setters and operators 18 50%
Nursing professionals 18 54%
Plumbers and pipe fitters 18 38%
Building and related electricians 18 40%
Welders and flame cutters 17 54%
Concrete placers, concrete finishers and related workers 17 62%

7 The threshold of 11 countries for inclusion in the list of most widespread shortages is arbitrary. If the threshold was 10, another 9
occupations would be included, and if 9 was the threshold, another 14 occupations would be included. The threshold is determined
by what is considered a reasonable number of widespread shortages. A similar approach is taken for the list of widespread surpluses.
8 These shares of those who made a rating.

20
 Percentage
Number of of countries
countries who ranked
Occupation reporting the shortage as ‘high
occupation as
magnitude’8 (i.e.
a shortage
‘severe shortage’)

Sheet metal workers 16 44%

Floor layers and tile setters 16 36%
Software developers 15 58%
Cooks 15 55%
Building construction labourers 15 38%
Electrical mechanics and fitters 15 22%
Applications programmers 15 64%
Generalist medical practitioners 14 55%
Bus and tram drivers 14 50%
Motor vehicle mechanics and repairers 14 33%
Specialist medical practitioners 14 55%
Software and applications developers and analysts not
elsewhere classified
14 58%
Earthmoving and related plant operators 14 44%
Waiters 13 44%
Early childhood educators 13 43%
Structural metal preparers and erectors 13 33%
Painters and related workers 13 63%
Agricultural and industrial machinery mechanics and
repairers
12 67%
Bakers, pastry-cooks and confectionery makers 12 25%
Systems analysts 12 56%

Butchers, fishmongers and related food preparers 12 38%

Health care assistants 12 60%

Cleaners and helpers in offices, hotels and other establishments 12* 63%
Electrical engineering technicians 12 63%
Psychologists 11 75%
Plasterers 11 25%
Civil engineers 11 57%
Physiotherapists 11 40%
Roofers 11 78%
Average number of countries who gave a high rating 50%

Note (*): DK was counted twice as it reported the occupation both as a skill and labour shortage.
Source: Analysis of data submitted by EURES National Coordination Offices

21
Healthcare-related occupations also feature strongly, However, there was considerable variation between
with both general medical doctors and specialist doctors occupations in terms of their rating. The occupations
appearing on the list together with nursing professionals. which attracted a rating of high magnitude from most
Psychologists, physiotherapists, and healthcare assistants countries included psychologists, painters, heavy
are also represented. truck and lorry drivers, and agricultural and industrial
mechanics not elsewhere classified.
The hospitality sector is strongly represented with four
occupations including cooks, waiters, bakers, pastry cooks The next group includes software developers not
and confectionary makers, and butchers, fishmongers, elsewhere classified, bricklayers, cleaners, application
and related food preparers. programmers, healthcare assistants, and physiotherapists.

Figure 8 – Severity of shortages by broad occupation group, 2022

Technicians and associate professionals 14 10 7

Skilled agricultural, forestry and fishery workers 3 5 3

Service and sale workers 13 9 5

Professionals 18 14 6

Plant and machine operators, and assemblers 15 13 5

Managers 5 5 2

Elementary occupations 13 11 3
Craft and related trades workers 16 16 6

Clerical support workers 5 8 4

Armed forces occupations 2

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Number of NCOs reporting at least one occupation with such severity

High Medium Low

Source: Analysis of data submitted by EURES National Coordination Offices

To derive an appreciation of the significance of these The results regarding the craft occupations are mixed.
figures, they are compared to the average rating These occupations attracted 38 ratings of which 16
assigned to the 1-digit broad occupation group were ratings of high magnitude – representing an
each occupation belongs to. The results are shown in average of 42%. This is almost identical to the average
Figure 8 above. There were 38 ratings of professional high rating (44%) of the 18 craft occupations on the
occupations and 18 were assigned a rating of high list of most widespread occupations.
magnitude. Thus, professional occupations attracted
This result suggests that the craft occupations which
on average 47% of all high ratings. This is significantly
were among the most widespread shortages were
lower than the average number of high ratings (57%)
not in general classified as the most severe shortages,
assigned to the 11 professional occupations on the
although roofers, painters, bricklayers and agriculture
list of most widespread shortages and indicates that
and industry mechanics not elsewhere stated
these 11 professional occupations were not only the
are exceptions.
most widespread, but also the most severe shortages.

22
3.4. Widespread and severe shortages over time
This study is the fifth in a series of reports on labour market imbalances in Europe conducted under the umbrella
of EURES. While this report incorporates important changes compared to previous editions, the methods used
by the NCOs to identify shortages has not changed significantly.

Table 4 – Comparison of widespread shortages over time, 2017 – 2022

Ranked as a shortage in

Occupation Current 2021 2020 2019 2017

report report report report report

Bricklayers and related workers 1st 7th 5th 7th 6th

Carpenters and joiners 2nd 6th 6th 4th 0
Heavy truck and lorry drivers 2nd 4th 3rd 1st 4th
Metal working and machine tool setting 2nd 9th 0 0 0
Nursing professionals 2nd 2nd 1st 6th 4th
Plumbers and pipefitters 2nd 1st 2nd 4th 2nd
Building and related electricians 2d 7th 5th 4th 6th
Welders and flame throwers 3rd 3rd 3rd 2nd 3rd
Concrete, placers, finishers etc. 3rd 6th 6th 6th 0
Sheet metal workers 4th 0 0 0 0
Floor layers and tile setters 4th 0 0 0 0
Software developers 5th 5th 4th 8th 4th
Cooks 5th 10th 3rd 5th 1st
Building construction labourers 5th 0 0 0 0
Electrical mechanics and fitters 5th 7th 0 0 0
Applications programmers 5h 8th 4th 0 0
General medical practitioners 6th 6th 4th 7th 2nd
Bus and tram drivers 6th 0 0 0 0
Motor vehicle mechanics, repairers 6th 8th 7th 6th 6th.
Specialist medical practitioners 6th 8th 0 0 0
Software, applications developers nec. 6th 10th 6th 8th 0
Earth moving and related plant operators 6th 0 0 0 0
Waiters 7th 0 0 0 0
Early childhood educators 7th 0 0 0 0
Structural metal preparers and erectors 7th 0 0 0 0
Painters and related workers 7th 0 0 0 0
Agriculture, industrial machinery mechanics 8th 7th 6th 3rd 5th
Bakers, pastry-cooks, confectionary makers 8th 0 0 0 0

23
 Ranked as a shortage in

Occupation Current 2021 2020 2019 2017

report report report report report

Systems analysts 8th 3rd 6th 2nd 5th

Butchers, fishmongers, related food
8th 0 0 0 0
preparers
Health-care assistants 8th 8th 7th 0 0
Cleaners and helpers in offices, hotels etc. 8th 0 0 0 0
Electrical, engineering technicians 8th 0 0 0 0
Psychologists 9th 0 0 0 0
Plasterers 9th 0 0 0 0
Civil engineers 9th 5th 6th 8th 0
Physiotherapists 9th 0 0 0 0
Roofers 9th 10th 0 0 0

Note: Zero (0) means that the occupation was not identified within the top 10 shortage occupations in the respective year.
Source: Analysis of data submitted by EURES National Coordination Offices for current and previous reports

The number of shortages which were classified occurs for those occupations which are ranked from
as widespread in previous reports has varied. seventh to ninth in the list of most widespread
Consequently, it is not possible to compare a shortages in the current report.
similar number of occupations over time, and the
The trends over time also reveal some interesting
comparison shown in Table 4 is based on the top
patterns. In terms of healthcare-related occupations,
10 identified shortages in the previous four reports.
doctors and nurses have been represented in the
The results display a high degree of convergence
most widespread occupations in all previous reports.
between the occupations which were ranked in the
The healthcare assistant on the other hand first
top 10 in the current and previous reports. Indeed,
appeared on the list in 2020 and it has remained on
12 of the 38 most widespread occupations in the
the list ever since. Specialist doctors did not appear
current report are in the top 10 rankings in all four
on the list until last year (2021) and it has appeared
previous reports. They include bricklayers, heavy
again in the current report. Both psychologists and
truck drivers, plumbers, nurses, welders, building
physiotherapists appear on the list in the current
electricians, software developers, cooks, doctors,
report for the first time.
motor mechanics, agriculture and industry machinery
mechanics, and systems analysts. This pattern may have been influenced by the
COVID-19 pandemic. The pandemic began in early
A further four occupations, carpenters, concrete
2020, and it quickly created a strong demand for
placers and finishers, software and application
nurses, healthcare assistants, and specialised doctors.
developers not elsewhere classified, and civil
engineers were classified in the top 10 rankings While employment in the construction sector
in 2021, 2020 and 2019. The rankings of the expanded by 6% between 2021Q1 and 2022Q2, the
occupations are also significant. The convergence employment of craft workers in that sector expanded
over time is most prominent in the case of the most by 5.8%. This may have created a tension in the
widespread occupations. A total of 10 of the top 15 sector as the employment of craft workers would be
most widespread occupations in the current report expected to at least keep pace with the overall increase
were classified as shortages in all previous reports, in employment. This may be a contributory factor in
whereas only two occupations from the remaining the number of construction craft occupations which
14 occupations were classified as shortages in all have been identified in this report as shortages.
previous reports. The lowest level of convergence

24
When assessing the demand for the building trades, It is notable in this regard that both chefs and kitchen
consideration should be taken of the fact that helpers were identified by 10 countries as shortages,
cabinet makers and construction supervisors were thus placing them just beyond inclusion on the list of
identified as shortage occupations by 10 countries most widespread shortages.
– this placing them just outside the list of the most
There are five software-related occupations in the
widespread shortages.
4-digit ISCO ’08 nomenclature and four of them
With the exception of the occupation of cook appear on the current list of widespread shortages.
which has appeared on all previous lists of the most Two of those occupations, systems analysts and
widespread shortages, the other three hospitality software developers, were identified in all previous
occupations of waiter, butchers, fishmongers and reports as shortage occupations, while software
related food preparers, and bakers, pastry cooks applications and developers not elsewhere classified
and confectionary makers appear on the list for the appear on the list of widespread shortages in the last
first time. This pattern is consistent with the surge in three reports. The fourth occupation of application
employment in the food and accommodation sector programmers appears on the list of widespread
in Europe in recent months. shortages in the previous two reports.

Table 5 – Comparison of most severe shortages over time, 2017–2022

Ranked as a most severe shortage in

Occupation Current 2021 2020 2019 2017

report report report report report

Bricklayers and related workers* 1st 3rd 2nd 2nd 0

Heavy truck and lorry drivers* 2nd 3rd 2nd 1st 4th
Nursing professionals* 2nd 1st 1st 0 3rd
Welders and flame throwers* 2nd 2nd 2nd 2nd 2nd
Concrete placers, finishers* 3rd 5th 2nd 1st 2nd
Software developers* 3rd 2nd 3rd 3rd 4th
General medical practitioners* 3rd 4th 2nd 3rd 0
Software applications etc. * 3rd 0 0 0 0
Metal working, tool setters. * 4th 0 0 0 0
Plumbers and pipe fitters* 4th 2nd 2nd 2nd 2nd
Cooks* 4th 0 0 0 0
Application programmers* 4th 4th 1st 3rd 3rd
Specialist medical* 4th 0 0 0 0
Psychologists* 4th 0 0 0 0
Roofers 4th 0 0 0 0

(*): Occupation in the 2022 list of most widespread shortages

Note: Zero (0) means that the occupation was not identified within the top 10 shortage occupations in the respective year.
Source: Analysis of data submitted by EURES National Coordination Offices for current and previous reports

25
It is also informative to compare the most severe shortage occupations.
shortages over time. However, as only 19 occupations
Consequently, it is reasonable to consider these
received such a rating over the last four years,
shortage occupations as reflecting structural issues
the comparison is made against the top 4 placed
in the European labour market, rather than being of a
occupations in the current report – which is composed
transient nature.
of 15 different occupations (see Table 5 above).
It is apparent from the analyses of widespread
All 15 occupations appear in the top 38 widespread
shortage occupations over the last few years that
occupations in the current report.
three groups of skills feature regularly on the list.
The degree of convergence over time is quite striking. These are software professionals, health professionals
One in three of the occupations in the top 4 places and building trades. Some engineering trades have
in the current report also achieved a top 4 placing featured regularly, but they have not dominated
in all the previous four reports. These include the the list to the same extent as the building trades.
occupations of heavy truck and lorry drivers, welders Furthermore, some of these trades - notably
and flamethrowers, software developers, plumbers welders and steel erectors – are also involved in
and pipefitters, and application programmers. construction activity.
In addition, the occupation of concrete placers and To the extent that they feature strongly in the list
finishers would also have been included had it not of widespread shortages in previous editions of
been placed fifth in the 2021 report. A further three the report, it may be deduced that the shortages
occupations achieved a fourth place ranking in four of of software professionals, health professionals
the five reports. and building trades is more deep-rooted than the
shortages identified in other occupations. This
To conclude, with the exception of two occupations,
conclusion is also supported by the analyses of
machine tool setters and sheet metal workers, the
labour market imbalances in the regions, with health
data suggest that the top 10 occupations listed in
professionals, software professionals and building
Table 4 and which occupy a ranking of between
trades identified in many regions as serious shortages.
first and fourth place have persisted over time as

3.5. Surplus occupations across Europe

While 29 countries participated in the study and Denmark (150) and Hungary (133) identified more than
each of them identified shortage occupations, 24 a hundred occupations. None of the other 22 countries
countries identified surplus occupations. This appears identified more than 50 surplus occupations. Romania
to be connected to the source of the information on (50), Latvia (49) and Sweden (44) identified the highest
labour market imbalances. For example, in the case numbers, while the Netherlands (5), Czechia (3), Estonia
of both Ireland and Italy, the PES referred to specific (6), Cyprus (7) and Norway (7) submitted fewer than
studies on skill shortages in their assessment of 10 surplus occupations. The geographic distribution
labour market imbalances, while Malta used data is quite varied, and no particular region in Europe
on work permits and engagements and separations stands out in terms of the number of identified surplus
in their assessment of which occupations were in occupations.
short supply.
The relatively modest number of surplus occupations
The NCOs identified 321 distinct surplus occupations. identified by 22 of 24 countries indicates that labour
As in the case of shortage occupations, there was market imbalances in Europe in 2022 are primarily a
not a statistical relationship between the number reflection of excess demand rather than excess supply.
of identified surplus occupations and the numbers
employed in each country. Only two countries,

26
Figure 9 – Total number of surplus occupations identified by each country, 2022

150

Note: In grey, countries that did not identify any surplus.

Source: Analysis of data submitted by EURES National Coordination Offices

3.6. Widespread and severe surplus occupations in 2022

The list of surplus occupations is shown in Table 6 large share of routine tasks (see Chapter 6).
below. It is apparent from the table that clerical and
However, the inclusion of 11 occupations which
professional occupations dominate. Both of these
require third-level qualifications may surprise
groups together account for 18 specific occupations.
many. These occupations however are either in the
General office clerks, executive secretaries and humanities or the creative arts. Regarding the latter,
general secretaries are among the most widely the list includes musicians, singers and composers,
identified surplus occupations and they contain visual artists, graphic and multi-media designers,
very large numbers of workers – particularly in the interior decorators and designers, and journalists.
case of general office clerks and general secretaries. The humanities include social work and counselling
Furthermore, 80% of the countries that rated these professionals; sociologists, anthropologists, and
two occupations in terms of the severity of the surplus related disciplines; advertising and marketing
gave them a high rating. Both general receptionists professionals, public relations professionals;
and hotel receptionists are also on the list, but they and translators, interpreters, and other linguists;
attract a much lower rating. philosophers, historians, and political scientists.
There are six elementary occupations on the list. They There are two occupations related to the travel
include kitchen helpers, cleaners, building labourers, industry, travel consultants and clerks, and travel
hand packers, shelf fillers and elementary occupations guides. Their presence on a list of surplus occupations
not elsewhere classified. Their inclusion on the list is may be a legacy of the pandemic which resulted in a
consistent with the view that technology is replacing major reduction in the number of workers involved in
workers in unskilled occupations dominated by a the travel industry.

27
Table 6 – Surplus occupations reported by many countries and the degree of severity, 2022

Number of
Percentage of countries
countries
who ranked surplus as
Occupation reporting the
‘high magnitude’9
occupation as
(i.e. severe surplus)
a surplus

Graphic and multi-media designers 13 20%

Administrative and executive secretaries 11 0
General office clerks 11 80%
Shop sales assistants 10 25%
Secretaries 10 80%
Interior designers and decorators 8 67%
Journalists 8 25%
Elementary workers not elsewhere
8 100%
classified
Car, taxi and van drivers 8 33%
Photographers 7 100%
Translators, interpreters, and other
7 0
linguists
Travel consultants and clerks 7 50%
Product and garment designers 7 50%
Visual artists 7 67%
Kitchen helpers 7 50%
Receptionists 7 0
Building construction labourers 7 50%
Cleaners and helpers in offices, hotels and
6 33%
other establishments
Tailers, dressmakers, furriers and hatters 6 0
Travel guides 6 50%
Advertising and marketing professionals 6 0
Beauticians and related workers 6 33%
Childcare workers 6 50%
Sociologists, anthropologists and related 6 67%
Building caretakers 5 50%
Library clerks 5 0
Security guards 5 67%
Gardeners, horticultural, nursery growers 5 100%

9 These shares of those who made a rating.

28
 Number of
Percentage of countries
countries
who ranked surplus as
Occupation reporting the
‘high magnitude’9
occupation as
(i.e. severe surplus)
a surplus

Hotel receptionists 5 50%

Cashiers and ticket clerks 5 50%
Hand packers 5 33%
Public relations professionals 5 0
Shelf fillers 5 0
Social work and counselling professionals 5 0
Stock clerks 5 50%
Musicians, singers and composers 5 33%

Philosophers, historians and

5 0
political scientists

Note: Zero (0) means that the occupation was not ranked as ‘high magnitude’ by any country.
Source: Analysis of data submitted by EURES National Coordination Offices to ELA

The second column in Table 6 shows the number of NCOs who gave each specific widespread occupation a
high rating. Figure 10 below gives the number of NCOs who gave a high rating to the severity of surplus of each
group of occupations.

Figure 10 – Severity of surpluses by broad occupation group, 2022

Technicians and associate professionals 4 6 3

Skilled agricultural, forestry and fishery workers 2 1 1
Service and sale workers 5 8 2
Professionals 6 8 2
Plant and machine operators, and assemblers 5 4 2
Managers 3 4 1
Elementary occupations 9 5 2
Craft and related trades workers 2 4 2
Clerical support workers 7 6 4
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Number of NCOs reporting at least one occupation with such severity

High Medium Low

Source: Analysis of data submitted by EURES National Coordination Offices

29
3.7. Comparing the quantitative findings with relevant external sources
The data on skill shortages and surpluses analysed in this chapter comes from the EURES National Coordination
Offices and the Public Employment Services. The data were gathered during the 2022Q2 and 2022Q3. There was
a relatively small number of other quantitative analyses of skill imbalances in Europe which cover this period.

Figure 11 – Share of firms reporting labour shortages, 2018–2022

45%
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
Q1;2018

Q2;2018

Q3;2018

Q4;2018

Q1;2019

Q2;2019

Q3;2019

Q4;2019

Q1;2020

Q2;2020

Q3;2020

Q4;2020

Q1;2021

Q2;2021

Q3;2021

Q4;2021

Q1;2022

Q2;2022

Q3;2022
Germany France Spain Italy

Source: Eurostat survey of manufactory employment

The relatively high number of shortages reported by However, these figures only refer to manufacturing
the NCOs is consistent with the results of a number industry. When all sectors are surveyed, the results are
of surveys on labour shortages. Eurostat’s survey more dramatic. In France, a survey by the employers’
of manufacturing companies shows a significant association CPME found that approximately 50% of
increase in the number of firms reporting labour companies were trying to recruit staff and 95% said
shortages between the first and third quarter of that they were struggling to find suitable candidates10.
2022. For example, the share of firms reporting In Germany, a survey by the Munich based IFO
such shortages reached 42% in the third quarter in institute found that 87% of family businesses were
Germany, while the shares recorded in France (22%), suffering from the impact of shortages of workers.
Spain (8%) and Italy (7%) were also relatively high and Similar situations were reported for Finland, Austria,
rising. These figures compare to shares of 18%, 12%, and Spain.11
5% and 2% respectively for the same quarter in the
pre-pandemic year of 2019.

10 See the EURACTIVE report at https://www.euractiv.com/section/politics/news/labour-shortages-felt-all-over-europe/.

11 As above.

30
These surveys confirm that there were extensive labour It is also interesting to compare the geographic
shortages in many European countries. However, in distribution of shortages in this report with the results
order to validate the findings of this report, it is also of CEDEFOPs analyses of skill shortages for the period
necessary to identify which occupations exhibited 2021-2026 for the 29 countries covered in this report.
the highest levels of shortage in 2022. The CEDEFOP analyses is of occupations at the 2-digit
level and the comparison below is of the three most
The 2022 annual review of Labour Market and Wage
prominent groups of shortage occupations identified
developments in Europe has an interesting analyses
in this report; health professionals; ICT professionals
of sector shortages. With regard to the latter, the
and building trades.
report notes that according to the European Centre
of Expertise (ECE), one of the highest concentrations The analyses identify all those countries where the
of labour shortages was in healthcare (Germany; forecast of annual employment growth for the three
Denmark; Belgium; France; Croatia; Romania; and 2-digit occupation groups is either at, or above
Sweden). Shortages however were also concentrated the forecast for the overall European Union annual
in hospitality (Germany; Croatia; Cyprus and Spain), employment growth rate. These countries are then
and in construction (Ireland; Luxemburg and Poland) compared to the countries where the NCOs classified
and in ICT (Germany; Spain and in Poland). these occupations as shortages. The purpose of
these analyses is to explore the extent to which the
While in general the shortages identified in this
shortages identified in this report are consistent with
report have a wider geographic range than the
the high employment growth forecast.
countries reported by the ECE, there is a very strong
overlap between the sectors identified by the The first occupation group is health professionals
ECE and the occupations in the widespread list of which account for four of the occupations on the list
shortages. Indeed, the only significant omission is of the 38 most widespread occupations.
that a significant number of engineering crafts are
The results of the Cedefop forecast are that the
also on the list of widespread shortages, but the fact
projected annual employment growth rate for health
that some of those engineering crafts are typically
professionals is higher than the overall EU growth rate
involved in construction activity means that they may
over the period 2021–2026 for 15 countries.
be implicitly included under the construction sector.

Figure 12 – Countries where the forecast (2021–2026) for health professionals is

equal or above the EU average

EU27
Czechia
Portugal
Austria
Denmark
Estonia
Luxemburg
Switzerland
Hungary
Norway
Poland
Slovenia
Slovakia Output Employment
Cyprus
Greece
Romania

0 1 2 3 4 5 6

Source: Cedefop online skill forecast 2021–2026

31
However, there are differences between the countries titled ‘building and related trades workers (excluding
where the NCOs report shortages and the countries electricians)’ are shown below in Figure 13.
where Cedefop forecasts a high demand for health
With regard to the building trades, there are some
professionals. Specifically, the NCOs in Greece and
discrepancies between the countries which are
Romania did not report any shortages of health
forecast to have an above average EU employment
professionals – despite the fact that the Cedefop
growth rate in the building trades and the countries
annual employment forecast for health professionals
where the NCOs reported shortages of building
was the highest in these two countries.
trades. Specifically, the NCOs of Malta and Ireland did
The 12 countries which are forecast by Cedefop to not report shortages in the building trades, although
have above average EU annual employment growth Cedefop reported above average EU employment
over the period 2021–2026 for the occupation group growth rates for these occupations.

Figure 13 – Countries where the forecast for building trades is equal or above the EU average (2021–2026)

EU27
Switzerland
Denmark
Cyprus

Lithuania
Greece

Spain
Romania
Croatia
Finland
Malta
Italy
Ireland

0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4

Source: Cedefop online skill forecast 2021–2026

However, national situations are more complex widespread agreement that the high level of public
than can be captured in a data collection exercise and private spending on construction was having
as conducted for the current report. While Ireland, an impact on shortages of building craft workers;
for example, did not report skill shortages when the employment in the construction sector over the most
template was submitted, their national skills unit in recent 12-month period has expanded by 17%13 and
its 2022 National Skills Bulletin12 did concede that all construction trades in Ireland have been placed
shortages of some building trades were likely in view on the work permit system.14 This also shows how
of the government’s anticipated high spending on time-sensitive data collection and analysis on labour
construction activity. By the end of 2022, there was shortages and surpluses can be in practice.

12 The national skills unit is formally known as the Skills and Labour Market Research Unit (SLMRU). See the 2022 National Skills Bulletin:
SLMRU, 2022.
13 This refers to the period 2021Q3 to 2022Q3. Most of the increase was in the skilled trades which expanded by 10% over this period.
14 Under the work permit system, employers are allowed to recruit workers from outside the European Economic Area (EEA) for skilled
workers when it is not possible to source those skills either domestically or from within the EEA.

32
Figure 14 – Countries where the forecast for ICT professionals is equal or above the EU average (2021–2026)

EU27
Finland
Italy
Switzerland
Hungary
France
Poland
Spain
Malta
Denmark
Belgium
Estonia
Luxemburg
Norway
Lithuania
Portugal
Croatia
Cyprus

0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5

Source: Cedefop online skill forecast 2021–2026

The threshold for inclusion in the Cedefop forecasts – Nevertheless, that is still eight countries less than the
equal or above the projected annual EU employment number of countries reported by the NCOs to have
rate – is 1.6 percentage points for ICT professionals. shortages of software professionals.
This is a higher threshold than in the case of either
To conclude, there is an extensive overlap between
the projections for healthcare professionals or for
the countries which are forecast to have above
the building trades. Nevertheless, there are more
EU average annual employment growth for three
countries included (17) in the list of countries who
2-digit groups of occupations over the period 2021–
are forecast to have above average EU rates of
2026, and the countries where the NCOs reported
employment growth than in the case of either health
shortages in the specific occupations which make-up
professionals or the building trades.
those groups.
There were four ICT professional occupations
However, the main conclusion to be drawn from
among the 38 most frequently identified shortage
the analyses is that the shortages identified in this
occupations. For all 17 countries where the annual
report are by no means confined to countries which
projected employment growth of ICT professionals is
were expected by Cedefop to record relatively strong
forecast to be above the EU average, the NCOs also
employment growth in the relevant occupations.
reported shortages of IT professionals.
While employment growth is clearly a contributary
In addition, a forecast is not provided by Cedefopfor factor in many cases, it is not the only factor. Overall
the annual growth of ICT professionals in Ireland. employment in the EU over the duration of the survey
The NCO in Ireland did report a shortage of high (2022Q1–2022Q3) was 1.7%. This is higher than the
magnitude for software developers and the inclusion Cedefop average annual employment forecasts for
of an employment forecast for these professionals for the three occupation groups over the period 2021-
Ireland would almost certainly have been above the 2026 and this may have contributed to the number of
EU average, and consequently increased the number countries reporting shortages as the market demand
of countries to 18. for these skills in 2022 was somewhat higher than the
average Cedefop forecast.

33
 3.8. Chapter summary
The shortages are concentrated in the north and west of Europe, although a considerable
number of shortages has also been identified in Italy.
The main shortages are in the craft occupations and in particular in the building trades,
but to some extent in engineering trades, too. There are also many shortage occupations
identified in the healthcare, software, and hospitality sectors.
The main surpluses are in the professional, clerical, and elementary occupations. The 10
professional occupations which are classified as being in excess of market demand included
five occupations in the creative arts and five occupations in the humanities.
In terms of the severity of the reported shortages, many of the 38 most widespread
occupations are assigned a high rating by significantly more countries than was the case
for all the reported occupations.
There was a high degree of overlap between the shortage occupations which were identified
by a large number of countries in the current report and the shortage occupations which
were identified by a large number of countries in four previous reports.
There was also a high degree of overlap between the shortages which attracted a high
rating over the last five reports – including in the current report. In this respect, it may
be argued that many of the more widespread shortages are deep-rooted or structural
in nature.
The shortages identified in this report are similar to the sectors identified as having
many shortages by the EU Council of Experts in 2021 namely healthcare, software,
and construction.
There is a strong overlap between the countries for which Cedefop forecast has above EU
average annual employment growth rates for health professionals, software professionals
and building trades over the period 2021–2026 and the countries which reported labour
shortages in these occupations in this report.
However, many countries which are forecast by Cedefop to have below average annual
employment growth in these occupations also reported shortages in these occupations in
this report. The reason may lie in the fact that the Cedefop forecast pre-dates the pandemic
and therefore did not anticipate the surge in employment in many countries which has
been triggered by the opening-up of the economy following the removal of restrictions.

34
4. GEOGRAPHIC DISTRIBUTION
OF LABOUR MARKET IMBALANCES
AND CROSS-BORDER LABOUR
MOBILITY
4.1. National distribution of widespread shortages
All 29 countries which participated in the study identified extent to which some of those shortages are among the
at least three of the 38 occupations on the list of the most most widespread, it is notable that the countries which
widespread shortage occupations. Slovenia (37), the identified relatively few shortage occupations also had a
Netherlands (35), Belgium (34), Norway (34), Estonia (33), relatively high share of occupations on the list of the most
Switzerland (33), Finland (30), Italy (27) and France (26) widespread shortages.
identified almost all of the 38 occupations, but as shown
This is apparent from Figure 15 below. The countries are
in Figure 7, these were also among the countries which
arranged from left to right along the x-axis in respect of
identified the highest number of occupations as shortages.
the total number of shortage occupations they identified.
The countries which identified the lowest number of the Thus, Switzerland identified the highest number of
most widespread shortages are Malta (3), Luxembourg (3), shortage occupations, followed by Italy and so on. Many
Greece (4), Spain (6), Cyprus (8), Czechia (9), Bulgaria (9) and of these countries classified more than 100 occupations
Ireland (10). These were also among the countries which as shortages, and consequently, it is not surprising that the
identified the lowest number of occupations as shortages. number of widespread occupations – when expressed as
a percentage of the total occupations they identified - is
While it is to be expected that the total number of
relatively low.
shortages that a country identifies has an impact on the

Figure 15 - Share of the most widespread shortages by reporting country, 2022

300 80%

70%
250
60%
200
50%

150 40%

30%
100
20%
50
10%

0 0%
CH IT NL BE NO SI DK EE FR FI HU RO PL HR LV LT AT PT SK SE DE IE ES CY LU BG MT CZ EL

Number of other shortage occupations Number of most widespread shortage %

Source: Analysis of data submitted by EURES National Coordination Offices

35
Examples include Greece that - despite identifying a total of only six shortage occupations - included four
(67%) which are on the list of the most widespread shortages, or Czechia that identified only 12 occupations,
but these included nine occupations (75%) which were on the list of most widespread shortages.
It is notable that even countries that identified only a few shortage occupations still included those occupations
that other countries were also identifying as shortages.

4.2. National distribution of widespread surpluses

Figure 16 shows that all 24 countries that identified surplus that identified very few surplus occupations. Despite
occupations included some of the most widespread the fact that these countries identified so few surplus
occupations. This includes those countries such as occupations, most of the occupations they identified
Norway, Cyprus, Estonia, Czechia, and the Netherlands were widespread surpluses. 15

Figure 16 - Share of the most widespread surpluses by reporting country, 2022

160 90%

140 80%

120 70%

60%
100
50%
80
40%
60
30%
40
20%
20 10%

0 0%
DK HU RO LV SE SK BE FI LT LU AT ES DE SI PT FR BG EL HR CY NO EE NL CZ

Number of other surplus occupations Number of most widespread surplus %

Source: Analysis of data submitted by EURES National Coordination Offices

15 The exception is Estonia where one in three occupations were widespread surpluses.

36
The 37 occupations which are on the list of the The fact that many countries identified a rather
most widespread surpluses are less than 10% of low number of surplus occupations places a limit
the number of 4-digit ISCO ’08 occupations the on the extent to which occupations which have
countries could choose from. The finding is consistent been identified as shortages in many European
with the results of a similar analysis of shortage countries may be matched with occupations which
occupations (Figure 15) and confirms that there is a were identified as surpluses in other countries (see
high degree of convergence between the NCOs in next section).
24 European countries on what is considered to be a
surplus occupation.

4.3. Matching shortages and surpluses across borders

One of the advantages of identifying both labour a shortage of systems analysts and Denmark having
shortages and labour surpluses is that the data a surplus; and Slovakia having a shortage of bakers
create the potential to match an occupation which and pastry cooks etc. and Hungary having a surplus
was identified as a surplus in one country with the of them.
same occupation which was identified as a shortage
These results only refer to the 38 most widespread
in another country. Such matches are particularly
shortage occupations. There are in fact almost 300
feasible when the countries in question are located
shortage occupations which have matching potential,
quite close to each other, share the same language or
and some of these matching possibilities could be
similar culture.
very useful to EURES and other stakeholders. Annex 4
Figure 17 shows the number of potential cross-border includes the full list of cross-border matches.
matches for the 38 identified most widespread
The occupation of advertising and marketing
shortage occupations. The highest number of
professionals is a good example of how useful
matching surplus occupations are for building
this information can be. This occupation does not
labourers and cleaners. These two elementary
appear on the list of widespread shortages because
occupations have been identified as surpluses by
it is classified as a shortage in only six countries.
seven and six countries respectively, while they have
However, in six entirely different countries it is
been identified as shortage occupations by 15 and
classified as a surplus. Similarly, forklift drivers are
11 countries respectively. With the exception of these
classified as a shortage in Czechia, Croatia, Italy,
two occupations, the most matches are between
Netherlands, Poland, Romania, and Slovakia, but as
three countries, and they are for the occupations of
a surplus occupation in Belgium, Denmark, Hungary,
agricultural and industry mechanics not elsewhere
and Luxembourg.
classified and bricklayers. For all other occupations,
there are between one and two cross-border matches. Each of the 29 countries covered by this study has
its own unique characteristics which impact on the
The number of surplus occupations which were
balance between labour demand and supply. Fertility
also identified as shortage occupations is relatively
rates for example differ between countries and this
modest. These cross-border matches however may be
has implications for the levels of demand for some
useful especially if some of the countries experiencing
specific occupations such as primary teachers. The
shortages and surpluses in similar occupations are
analysis in this report found that this occupation is
physically adjacent to each other. Examples include
classified as a shortage in 10 different countries, but is
Norway and Germany being short of electrical and
it also classified as a surplus in three other countries,
mechanical fitters and Denmark and Sweden having
specifically Austria, Cyprus, and Romania.
a surplus; Italy and Switzerland having a shortage of
healthcare assistants and Austria having a surplus of
them; Bulgaria having a shortage of bus and tram
drivers and Greece having a surplus; Norway having

37
Figure 17 – Cross-border match between most widespread shortages and surpluses, 2022

Building construction labourers 7 15

Cleaners and helpers in offices, hotels and other establishments 6 12

Cooks 3 15
Bricklayers and related workers 3 19

Agricultural and industrial machinery mechanics and repairers 3 12

Waiters 2 13
Psychologists 2 11
Plasterers 2 11
Painters and related workers 2 13
Motor vehicle mechanics and repairers 2 14
Heavy tuck and lorry drivers 2 18
Health care assistants 2 12
Electrical mechanics and fitters 2 15
Eathmoving and related plant operators 2 14
Early childhood educators 2 13
Welders and flame cutters 1 17
Systems analysts 1 12
Structural metal preparers and erectors 1 13
Software developers 1 15
Sheet metal workers 1 16
Roofers 1 11
Plumbers and pipe fitters 1 18
Metal working machine tool setters and operators 1 18
Floor layers and tile setters 1 16
Electrical engineering technicians 1 12
Concrete placers, concrete finishers and related workers 1 17
Carpenters and joiners 1 18
Butchers, fishmongers and related food preparers 1 12
Bus and tram drivers 1 14
Building and related electricians 1 18
Bakers, pastry-cooks and confectionery makers 1 12
0 5 10 15 20 25

Number of NCOs reporting surpluses Number of NCOs reporting shortages

Source: Analysis of data submitted by EURES National Coordination Offices

38
4.4. Regional labour market imbalances and labour market flows
As part of the data collection process, the NCOs in the The response from the NCOs shows that these patterns
29 countries were asked in a separate qualitative survey of employment and unemployment have a significant
whether there were significant regional differences impact on labour market imbalances. There are a number
regarding labour market imbalances, and whether there of factors that are contributing to the emergence of
was any evidence of cross-border mobility impacting shortages and surpluses at regional level. In some cases,
labour shortages or surpluses in their regions. significant employment had been associated with
industries which are no longer viable – for example coal
Not all of the NCOs were in a position to provide
mining in Wallonia in Belgium. But a culture of staying in
information on their regional labour market. The NCOs
the local area is also a major factor. The NCO in Slovakia for
from many of the smaller countries (e.g., Cyprus, Malta,
example, cites the‘regional factor’as the major contributor
Estonia, Slovenia, Luxembourg etc) reported that their
to labour market imbalances and notes that the further
country was too small to accommodate meaningful
east one travels away from the capital Bratislava, the lower
regional differences in terms of labour demand
the level of investment in business or education and the
and supply.
higher the unemployment rate.
However, the NCO from most of the other countries
Low investment in many peripheral and rural areas also
provided detailed qualitative data on the impact of their
gives rise to cross-border movements of skills. While
regions both on labour balances and on cross-border
these movements are not extensive in Slovakia, there
movements of labour. The following paragraphs provide
is emigration of some occupations – some of which are
an overview of the information collected, although
already in short supply in the country. This is particularly
it should be mentioned that this is not meant to be
true of health professionals who are migrating to
exhaustive but rather provide illustrative examples.
Austria or Czechia seeking higher salaries and better
In general, the pattern of employment and unemployment working conditions.
reported by the NCOs in their regions reflected the pattern
The emigration of health professions is also a major
found by Eurostat in their recent study of employment
challenge in Hungary. It is also motivated by the
and unemployment in NUTs 2 regions.16 Specifically, in
availability of significantly higher salaries in Germany,
many Eastern European countries and some countries in
the UK, Austria and Sweden and the NCO reports that it
the west of Europe, the employment rate was highest in
is seriously affecting the supply of doctors, nurses, and
the vicinity of the region where the capital was located.
midwifery professionals to the domestic market.
Thus, very high employment rates were recorded in 2021
in Noord-Brabant (84.1%) and Utrecht (84.4%) in the In Poland in 2022 the largest number of shortages
Netherlands; in Mellersta Norrland (84%) and Stockholm were occurring in the north-western regions such as
(83.8%) in Sweden, in Warszawski Stoleczny in Poland Lubuskie, Pomorskie, Dolnośląskie and Wielkopolskie.
(83.7%); in Sostines regions in Lithuania (83.6%), in These shortages were extensive and include health
Bratislavsky Krai in Slovakia (83.4%) and in Unterfranken, professionals, construction trades, hospitality, teaching
Chemnitz and Niederbayern in Germany (83.4%). and financial professions. There were no surplus
occupations identified in these regions.
In contrast, rural and peripheral areas were characterised
by low investment, low employment and few higher There were also shortages identified in 2022 in the
education facilities and high unemployment rates. Some southern regions of Poland including Opolskie,
of the regions most adversely affected include much of Małopolskie, Świętokrzyskie and Śląskie and
Greece, many rural regions in Spain, southern Italy and northern regions such as Kujawsko–Pomorskie, and
peripheral regions in France. In some regions such as Sicily, Zachodniopomorskie. The type of occupations are
Campania and Calabria in southern Italy and Mayotte and broadly similar (e.g., construction, health, hospitality
Guyana in France less than half the population of working etc.), although there is also a specific shortage of IT
age are in employment. professionals in certain regions.

16 https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/tgs00010/default/table?lang=en

39
In contrast, a smaller number of shortage occupations The underdeveloped regions are also less attractive
are occurring in the regions located in the eastern to many professionals in Lithuania – in particular
part of the country such as Podkarpackie, Warmińsko- doctors and other healthcare professionals who have
Mazurskie, Lubelskie, and Podlaskie. The occupations a preference for working in the major cities.
which are in demand are in some respects different
A shortage of skilled construction workers is also
from the more prosperous areas and include drivers
evident throughout Lithuania. Emigration to other
of buses, trucks and tractors, electrical mechanics and
European countries is a major contributory factor in
assemblers, and welders and accountants.
the shortage of skilled building workers. The shortage
The NCO reports that a culture of staying in the local has given rise to a policy of attracting skilled workers
area is a major factor in the emergence of labour from other EU countries and to a greater extent from
market imbalances in Bulgaria. The shortages are third countries. Ukrainians – especially after the
located mainly in regions which are characterised by outbreak of war with Russia – have the highest share
a high concentration of manufacturing industries. of employment from third countries, but Belarusians,
These regions include the capital Sofia, Plovdiv Russians, Kyrgyz, and Uzbeks also have a significant
and Stara Zagora. The occupations which are most presence among the employed.
in demand are professionals with technical skills,
The phenomenon of a significant surplus of unskilled
but these are not available in sufficient numbers
workers residing outside of the major cities reflects
in the relevant regions and there is little regional
the fact that in Eastern Europe in particular, there are
mobility. Indeed, the NCO in Bulgaria reported that
many regions which are underdeveloped in terms of
in the Yambol region, there is a surplus of welders,
enterprise development and education facilities. This
mechanical engineering technicians and agricultural
is a major source of labour market imbalances in the
machinery mechanics. At the same time, in the
less developed regions, as investment is not attracted
neighbouring region of Haskovo, there is a shortage
to these regions because of a lack of suitable high-
of these metalworking skills.
level skills among the labour force. In turn, skills
The striking aspect about Romania’s labour market upgrading is difficult to achieve in an environment of
is that half of the top 10 vacancies in 2022 are of more limited provision of services of public interest,
elementary occupations such as kitchen helpers, including education and training providers.
various labourers, and hand packers. Furthermore, the
The situation is somewhat different in Western
highest share of vacancies in elementary professions
Europe. Firstly, there is a greater geographical
is not in the Bucharest or central regions but in the less
distribution of very large cities within the countries,
developed south-east and south Muntenia regions.
and consequently, the difference between regions
A surplus of workers in elementary occupations in in terms of investment and the skills profile of the
less developed regions is also evident in many other workers is not so pronounced.
east European countries, for example Lithuania. In
Nevertheless, there are distinct differences between
the summer of 2022, the share of unskilled workers
labour markets in some countries, particularly in
among the registered unemployed in the regions
Scandinavia and in Italy. However, it is clear from the
of the largest cities of Vilnius, Kaunas, and Klaipeda
reports of the NCOs in these countries that these
was 29.3%, 34.7% and 30.2% respectively. To place
regional differences are between the northern and
these figures in perspective, in six of the seven other
southern regions rather than between the east and
regions, more than half of all registered job-seekers
west regions.
were unskilled.
The reports from the NCOs of Norway, Sweden and
In Kaunas and Klaipeda, the difference between
Finland illustrate this difference. In Norway, the PES
the demand for unskilled workers – as indicated
2022 spring survey showed that the two northern
by notified vacancies and the supply of registered
regions Nordland and Troms and Finnmark and the
jobseekers – is around 15%. The situation is becoming
regions of More and Romsdai were experiencing the
more balanced in the Vilnius region, but in the rest
highest levels of shortages. It is suspected that the
of the country, there were twice as many unskilled
high number of young people who leave the north
jobseekers as there were notified vacancies for
of the country to work in the cities in the south is
those jobs.
a significant contributary factor to the growth of
shortages in these regions.

40
Similarly, in Sweden, shortages which occur at the In the Pirkanmaa-Tempere region, the NCO has reported
national level, such as shortages of carpenters, chefs, shortages of lorry drivers, waiters and air-hostesses,
mechanical engineers, IT specialists and health while in the capital region there are shortages of
professionals, are more severe in the less populated restaurant workers.
areas in the north of the country.
Regarding cross-border movements, the NCO noted the
There are many different reasons for these shortages. similarity between the labour markets in the northern
There is a thriving green industry in the north, and regions of Finland, Sweden and Norway. The shortages
this has resulted in a significant requirement for are common in all three northern regions and include
mechanical engineers. Like many countries, Sweden healthcare, metal industry, construction, transportation,
has experienced a shortage of chefs after the mining, hospitality, and tourism. A number of large
hospitality industry reopened following the lifting of investments in the regions in recent years may
COVID-19 related restrictions. But while the shortage accentuate these shortages. There is some movement
of chefs is a national problem, the shortage is more of workers between the regions but it is modest and
severe in the less populated regions of the north. involves movements into Finland rather than emigration
from Finland.
Labour market imbalances in Sweden are also
impacted by both emigration from Sweden and In Italy, according to the annual Borsino Excelsior survey17,
immigration to Sweden. The shortage of IT specialised the skills which are most difficult to recruit include
is being addressed by attracting talents from third healthcare, telematics and software engineering. At the
countries – especially India – while the shortages in craft level, specific occupations which are in short supply
the construction sector are being alleviated by the are welders and smelters, metal processing and mineral
immigrants from Eastern Europe. products machinery workers, building finishing trades,
and electrical and electronic equipment installation and
There is also emigration from Sweden to Norway and
maintenance workers.
Denmark of people who live in the regions which
border these countries. In the case of shop sales In July 2022, the regions with the highest level
assistants – which is a surplus occupation in Sweden - of shortages were Trentino Alto Adige (51.3% of
the movement of skills does not have an adverse impact companies); Valle d’Aosta (50.7%), Umbria (47.4%), Friuli
on the local economy. However, the NCO also reports Venezia Giulia and Veneto (46.5%).
that there is also considerable emigration of health and
The Italian PES are involved with their Slovenian
transport occupations and many of these are shortage
counterparts in the exchange of information on shortage
occupations in Sweden.
occupations in their respective regions. While some of
Healthcare is the sector which has the most severe the shortages – most notably in health, construction,
shortages, and these shortages exist throughout the and manufacturing – are common to both jurisdictions,
country. In the most northerly region, Lapland, the it is hoped that the project will succeed in matching
shortage of construction workers and lorry drivers is some occupations which are surplus in the relevant
more acute than in other regions, while the Kainuu area areas of Slovenia with occupations which are in shortage
of the north is experiencing many shortages including in the relevant regions of Italy (more information on the
hairdressers, butchers, construction workers, bakers and Italian-Slovenian cross-border partnership can be found
schoolteachers. Box 1 below).

17 https://excelsior.unioncamere.net/

41
Box 1 – Italian-Slovenian cross-border region – Euradria Cross-border Partnership18

Euradria is the EURES Cross-border Partnership (CBP) that supports mobility in the cross-
border area between Italy and Slovenia. The CBP supports jobseekers and workers who wish
to commute across the border by assisting them overcome some of the obstacles faced when
travelling across borders to work. Euradria estimates that there are between 10,000 and 12,000
cross-border workers.19 In recent years there has been a rebalancing of flows between the two
countries as more people living in Italy are taking work in Slovenia. Although no study has yet
been undertaken to explain this phenomenon, one possible reason is the relocation of Italian
companies across the border. Importantly, as only 20 km separates Italy from Croatia, the region
also receives numerous workers from Croatia. It is therefore possible that shortly the Euradria
Partnership will be extended to include Croatia.
To assist workers Euradria has created a network of ‘InfoDesks’ located along the Italian-
Slovenian border to provide information and support to jobseekers and workers on practical
issues such as tax returns and contributions, healthcare coverage, sick leave, maternity leave, etc.
The desks access started to grow since the pandemic started, giving concrete support to those
high-needed frontier workers in emergency/needed sectors (e.g. health, personal/domestic
assistance, transport) and to employers in search of information. The number of contacts made
by InfoDesks 2021/2022 was around 7,000. Considering the number of daily direct contacts and
questions asked, the InfoDesks became an important source of information for the partnership
that gained relevant data (i.e., with respect to age, gender, employment sector) that allowed
to identify the extent of vulnerable groups among the frontier workers. They are also engaged
to identify and appropriately report the administrative obstacles to free movement, as some
national regulations show some deficiencies at bordering level, as those related for example
to residency and/or double taxation that increase the burdens on cross-border workers. The
number of InfoDesks will be increased to 12 by March 2023. Additionally, since 2019, discussions
have been initiated between partners and institutions involved in cross-border movements to
further structure and align the procedures for frontier workers (in terms of, for example, social
security, taxation, etc.). Euradria is also investigating the specific skill sets held by frontier workers.
Labour market imbalances identified in the cross-border region do not necessarily mirror the
wider national situation given the specific needs (not only for language skills, but also for specific
habits/needs). Since 2020, Euradria maps the set of skills and competencies needed in specific
professions within sectors already well-established between the bordering countries. The action
involved employers in defining specific cross-border datasheets for the selected occupations.

Source: Focus group and position paper sent from Euradria CBP

18 https://euradria.eu/?lang=en
19 Total employment in the Euradria region in 2020 was 675,300 (Eurostat data: NAMA_10R_3EMPERS).

42
In France, regional labour market imbalances tend There are however differences between regions. In
to reflect the type of economic activity in the area the technology-intensive regions such as in Baden-
and its proximity to the borders of other countries. Württemberg, Bavaria and North Rhine-Westphalia,
For example, there are shortages of information there are significant shortages of technical specialists
technology engineering in the Ile de France region who have a qualification from a technical college or
because of the concentration of ICT firms in that a relevant degree from a university. There are also
region, while the food processing industry reports significant shortages of technically qualified workers
many shortages in the Bretagne region. Regions evident in Saxony.
such as Grand-Est, Bourgogne-Franche-Comté
There are very few surplus occupations in Germany.
and Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes experience significant
Those that are reported by the NCO include persons
outward migration to countries such as Switzerland,
qualified in the textile industry and those with
Luxembourg or Germany due to a significant disparity
qualifications in philology and the humanities.
in salaries and this is having an impact on the health
Germany has tried to address its skill shortages
and software sectors. There is also some outward
through a targeted policy of attracting persons from
movement of labour to countries bordering France
other countries. However, that policy was placed on
from the Hauts-de-France, Provence-Alpes-Côte
hold during the pandemic and the legacy of that
d’Azur and Occitaine regions.
loss of a stream of technically qualified workers is
There is also considerable cross-border movements having an adverse impact on productivity in German
of skills from Czechia to Germany and Austria, and manufacturing industry.
this movement is having a detrimental impact on the
In many cases, the cross-border workers are daily
availability of skills in the domestic labour market –
commuters who return home every evening. The
especially nurses and medical technicians. The rates
largest numbers of such cross-border commuters
of pay and the working conditions are considered
are in technical occupations in machine-building
to be better in Germany or Austria than they are
and the automotive industry; drivers and operators
in Czechia.
of vehicles and transport equipment and logistics,
Regarding labour market imbalances in general, the and occupations in metal-making and in metal
situation in Czechia is that the most developed regions construction. These cross-border commuters account
such as the capital Prague and the Central Bohemian for almost 9% of employment in some regions.
region has the highest employment rate and the most
Finally, a reluctance to leave the region of their
vacancies. In contrast, a less developed region such as
birth also contributes to regional labour market
the north has the highest unemployment rate.
imbalances. For example, there are surpluses of lorry
The NCO in Czechia reported that two recent drivers and waiters in the Pirkanmaa-Tampere region
developments in particular had a significant impact of Finland, but there is a reluctance on the part of the
on labour market imbalances. Firstly, the pandemic unemployed with these skills to seek employment in
triggered a strong demand for IT specialists and other regions.
secondly, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine deprived the
A lack of willingness to travel to other regions or
economy of many skilled construction workers.
countries in search of employment is quite common in
In Germany, there are extensive shortages throughout the more traditional areas of Scandinavia and Eastern
the country. The greatest shortages are of those with Europe and it is a significant factor contributing to
relevant technical vocational qualifications. Shortages labour market imbalances in Europe.
of skilled construction workers are widespread, as are
shortages in the health and caring professions.

43
 4.5. Chapter summary
There is a high degree of convergence between the 29 countries that participated in the
current study regarding their reporting of both shortage and surplus occupations. This is
the case even for countries that identified relatively few shortage and surplus occupations,
and it means that the same occupations are being identified by many countries. It may
be concluded therefore that the most widespread shortages identified in this report are
ubiquitous throughout the European labour market.
The relatively low number of surplus occupations which were reported places a limit on the
extent to which a shortage in one occupation in one country could be matched by a surplus
in the same occupation in another country. Nevertheless, the report provides many examples
of countries which are adjacent physically to one another and who could match a shortage in
one occupation with a surplus in the adjacent country in the same occupation.
Cross-border potential matches exist to a greater or lesser extent for almost 300 different
occupations. Information on these potential matches could be useful to EURES and other
relevant stakeholders.
There are significant labour market imbalances between regions in many of the countries that
participated in this study. In general, regions which contain the capital city or are adjacent to
the region which contains the capital city have fewer labour market imbalances than in the
less developed regions. In Eastern Europe, the latter tend to be located in the eastern regions,
while in Scandinavia, they tend to be located in the northern regions. In Italy in contrast, the
northern regions are much more developed than the south.
There are significant cross-border movements of labour. In general, these movements
occur between regions which are physically adjacent to each other and where the levels of
remuneration and the working conditions are superior in one region.
However, they can also occur between regions which are very far apart geographically, for
example immigration to Sweden or Ireland of workers from Poland and Lithuania.
The cross-border movements of workers give rise to significant labour market imbalances
when the skills of the workers are required in the region they migrate from. There is some
evidence from the reports of the NCOs that these cross-border movements are contributing
to the emergence of shortages in healthcare and construction in particular.
A reluctance to move within the same country to regions which have more employment
possibilities was cited by many NCOs as a barrier to match shortages with surpluses.

44
5. RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN
LABOUR MARKET IMBALANCES AND
VULNERABLE GROUPS
5.1. Number of workers employed in shortage and surplus occupations
There were 40.53 million workers employed in the 38 surpluses, but they are not extensive and tend to be
most widespread shortage occupations, and 43.3 million located in a particular region or sector. For example, in
in the 37 most widespread surplus occupations in 2021. Slovakia, there are surpluses in the hospitality sector
However, when adjustments are made for the fact that which are a legacy of the pandemic. Similarly in Germany
both cleaners and building labourers appear on both lists, there are some surplus occupations associated with
the totals are 38.82 and 39.88 million. textile design and with qualifications in the humanities.
In these responses, there was a sense that the labour
The total number of workers from the 75 shortage and
market was so buoyant that most jobseekers could find
surplus occupations is 78.71 million. The total number
employment.
of persons employed in all occupations in the EU27 was
195.247 million. Thus, 40% of the workers employed in In a second group of countries, the predominant theme
the countries surveyed in the report are working either was the vulnerability created by students not learning
in a classified shortage occupation or in a classified the type of skills and knowledge which employers in the
surplus occupation which represent only 17% of the 436 local labour market required. Among these countries
occupations in the 4-digit ISCO ‘08 classification system. are Cyprus, Poland, Finland, Sweden and Croatia. One of
the most significant factors resulting in regional labour
The explanation lies in the nature of the occupations.
market imbalances in these countries according to the
Specifically, both the list of most widespread shortage
responses is the fact that students pursue traditional
and surplus occupations includes most of the occupations
academic disciplines in the humanities while most
which contain the highest levels of employment. For
employers in their local labour market require young
example, there were almost 8 million sales assistants
jobseekers qualified in technical disciplines from a
employed in 2021, and over 5 million general office clerks,
technical college or university.
over 4 million cleaners of hotels and offices and more than
3 million secretaries and heavy truck and lorry drivers. The third category are those who have personal
characteristics which make them vulnerable to
There were over 2 million working as healthcare
unemployment. For example, while the south of Italy
assistants, stock clerks, or car, van, and taxi drivers, while
is not very well developed in terms of industry and this
numerous other occupations on both lists had over
has created above average levels of unemployment,
1 million employed in each of them.
the consequence for female workers is particularly
It is clearly less desirable to be working in an occupation severe. In regions such as Sicily, Campania and Apulia,
which is classified as being in excess of market demand less than half the female population of working age are
rather than working in an occupation which is classified in employment.
as being in strong demand. Consequently, it is important
Another group who are very vulnerable to unemployment
to identify the characteristics of those who are employed
in certain countries and regions in Europe are older workers
in these vulnerable occupations.
(i.e. 55+). A striking example is provided by Lithuania
In the qualitative survey, the NCOs were asked about the where the workforce is ageing at a far faster rate than in
impact of labour market imbalances on vulnerable groups. other European countries and this is creating significant
There was considerable variation in their responses. unemployment among this group. This phenomenon is
also observed in many less developed regions in Eastern
Firstly, many NCOs pointed to record low unemployment
Europe such as the Yambol region in Bulgaria. The ageing
rates in their country as an indication that surplus
of the workforce is accentuated where there is a relatively
occupations were very few indeed. Among the countries
high degree of outward migration of young people.
included in this category were Germany, Malta, Slovakia,
Estonia, the Netherlands, and Norway. There are some

45
5.2. Labour market imbalances and gender
The pie charts displayed in Figure 18 show the distribution of females in the EU27 compared to their distribution
in the most widespread shortage and surplus occupations. It is apparent from the charts that whereas females
represent almost half of those employed in the EU, their representation among the most widespread shortage
occupations is significantly lower, while their representation among the most widespread surplus occupations
is significantly higher – making many female workers vulnerable to periods of unemployment.

Figure 18 - Share of females in all occupations (A), in most widespread

shortages (B) and surplus occupations (C) of the EU27, 2021

A B C

Female Male

Source: European Labour Force Survey special data extracts

To understand why the gender distribution is so unfavourable to female workers, it is necessary to profile the
gender composition of the occupations on each list of widespread shortages and surpluses.

46
Figure 19 - Share of females in the most widespread shortage occupations, 2021

Early childhood educators

Nursing professionals
Health care assistants
Cleaners and helpers in offices, hotels and other establishments
Psychologists
Physiotherapists
Waiters
Generalist medical practitioners
Specialist medical practitioners
Cooks
Bakers, pastry-cooks and confectionery makers
Butchers, fishmongers and related food preparers
Software and applications developers and analysts not elsewhere classified
Civil engineers
Systems analysts
Applications programmers
Software developers
Bus and tram drivers
Metal working machine tool setters and operators
Painters and related workers
Electrical mechanics and fitters
Electrical engineering technicians
Welders and flame cutters
Structural metal preparers and erectors
Agricultural and industrial machinery mechanics and repairers
Carpenters and joiners
Motor vehicle mechanics and repairers
Building construction labourers

Building and related electricians

Heavy tuck and lorry drivers

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Note: In yellow, occupations with at least 50% of employed women.

Note 2: Occupations employing 0% of women (i.e. bricklayers and related workers, concrete placers, concrete finishers and related workers,
earthmoving and related plant operators, floor layers and tile setters, plasterers, plumbers and pipe fitters, roofers) are excluded from the list.

Source: European Labour Force Survey special data extracts

47
Women represent more than half of the workers and they are by far the largest single group of
employed in the top nine shortage occupations. occupations on the list. The low representation of
However, two out of three of these occupations female workers among this group results in the fact
are in the healthcare sector and include general that their overall representation in the occupations
practitioners, specialist doctors, professional nurses, which have been identified by the highest number of
psychologists, psychiatrists, and healthcare assistants. countries as shortages is very poor.
Of the other three occupations, one is in education,
To accentuate the difficulties which female workers
and the others are cleaners and waiters.
encounter on the European labour market, their
Female workers are poorly represented in the software representation in those occupations which are on the
related occupations and in civil engineering, and their list of the most widespread surpluses is, in contrast,
representation among the craft occupations is very very high.
low, too. The latter include 18 different occupations,

Figure 20 - Share of females in the most widespread surplus occupations, 2021

Beauticians and related workers

Child care workers
Tailors, dressmakers, furriers and hatters
Secretaries (general)
Cleaners and helpers in offices, hotels and other establishments
Cashiers and ticket clerks
Receptionists (general)
Library clerks
Social work and counselling professionals
Administrative and executive secretaries
General office clerks
Travel consultants and clerks
Shop sales assistants
Kitchen helpers
Translators, interpreters and other linguists
Public relations professionals
Hotel receptionists
Travel guides
Interior designers and decorators
Sociologists, anthropologists and related professionals
Advertising and marketing professionals
Product and garment designers
Hand packers
Shelf fillers
Visual artists
Journalists
Philosophers, historians and political scientists
Graphic and multimedia designers
Elementary workers not elsewhere classified
Photographers
Musicians, singers and composers
Stock clerks
Gardeners, horticultural and nursery growers
Building caretakers
Security guards
Car, taxi and van drivers
Building construction labourers

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Note: In yellow, occupations with at least 50% of employed women.

Source: European Labour Force Survey special data extracts

48
In the case of the most widespread surpluses, female The other striking aspect of the graph is that the
workers represent over half of the workforce in the relatively high female representation features in almost
case of 26 of the 37 occupations. Furthermore, their all occupations which require a third-level qualification.
representation is over 70% in 14 of the occupations, Thus, almost 80% of those working in social work and
and crucially these occupations include some of the counselling are female, as are 70% of those employed as
occupations with the highest employment in 2021 public relations professionals and translators, interpreters,
such as secretaries, cleaners, general office clerks, and and other linguists. Almost 60% of interior designers and
shop sales assistants. sociologists and anthropologists are also female.

5.3. Labour market imbalances and youth

There were 32.393 million workers employed in the EU27 in 2021 who were under 30 years of age. They
represented approximately 17% of the total workforce.

Figure 21 - Comparison of share of employed youth aged under 30 and employed older people aged 30 to 65
overall (A), in most widespread shortages (B) and in most widespread surpluses (C) in EU27, 2021

A B C

15-29 years old employed 30-65 years old employed

Source: European Labour Force Survey special data extracts

There were 6.849 million workers under 30 years of However, there were 8.152 million under 30 years
age employed in the most widespread shortage of age employed in the most widespread surplus
occupations from a total employment in these occupations from a total employment of 39.880
occupations of 38.824 million workers. This is million employed in these occupations. That is
equivalent to a share of 18% - essentially the same equivalent to 20%, and therefore higher than the
as the overall share of workers under 30 years of age overall share of workers under 30 years of age in the
employed in all occupations in 2021. total workforce.

49
Table 7 - Share of workers under 30 years employed in widespread shortages in 2021

Percentage Percentage
Occupation employed under Occupation employed under
30 years of age 30 years of age

Waiters 44% Systems analysts 16%

Building construction Butchers, fishmongers and
27% 16%
labourers related food preparers
Electrical engineering
Applications programmers 25% 16%
technicians
Roofers 24% Health care assistants 16%
Software developers 24% Welders and flame cutters 16%
Motor vehicle mechanics
24% Painters and related workers 16%
and repairers
Physiotherapists 24% Civil engineers 15%
Agricultural and industrial
Bricklayers and related
machinery mechanics and 23% 14%
workers
repairers
Bakers, pastry-cooks and
22% Nursing professionals 14%
confectionery makers
Building and related Earthmoving and related
21% 14%
electricians plant operators
Metal working machine tool Generalist medical
20% 14%
setters and operators practitioners
Plumbers and pipe fitters 20% Plasterers 14%
Cooks 20% Floor layers and tile setters 14%
Early childhood educators 19% Psychologists 12%
Concrete placers, concrete
Carpenters and joiners 19% 11%
finishers and related workers
Sheet metal workers 19% Heavy truck and lorry drivers 9%
Electrical mechanics and Specialist medical
19% 9%
fitters practitioners
Cleaners and helpers in
Structural metal preparers
18% offices, hotels and other 9%
and erectors
establishments
Software and applications
developers and analysts not 18% Bus and tram drivers 5%
elsewhere classified

Source: European Labour Force Survey special data extracts

50
Table 7 shows the age profile of the shortage programmers (25%) and software developers (24%),
occupations. Almost all of the occupations on the contain the next highest shares, while roofers, motor
left-hand side of the table have a share of workers mechanics and physiotherapists also have shares of 24%.
under 30 years of age which is above the average
At the other end of the scale, less than 10% of heavy
of 18% for all occupations. The highest share is for
truck drivers were under 30 years of age in 2021, while
waiters (44%), followed by building labourers (27%).
the share of young workers in nursing and in many of
These are relatively unskilled occupations, and both
the building trades is also low. There is a risk that this
occupations contain a relatively high share of migrant
age profile will accentuate the level of shortages in
workers and workers with poor education attainment.
the European labour market over the next few years.
Two software related occupations, application

Table 8 - Share of workers under 30 years of age employed in widespread surpluses in 2021

Percentage Percentage
Occupation employed Occupation employed
under 30 under 30
years of age years of age

Sociologists, anthropologists and

Shelf fillers 52% 19%
related professionals
Gardeners, horticultural and nursery
Cashiers and ticket clerks 37% 18%
growers
Hotel receptionists 32% Interior designers and decorators 18%
Social work and counselling
Library clerks 28% 17%
professionals
Shop sales assistants 28% Photographers 16%
Public relations
27% Travel consultants and clerks 16%
professionals
Building construction
27% Secretaries (general) 16%
labourers
Kitchen helpers 26% Car, taxi and van drivers 16%
Hand packers 25% Musicians, singers and composers 15%
Graphic and multimedia
25% Security guards 13%
designers
Receptionists (general) 25% General office clerks 13%
Beauticians and related Translators, interpreters and other
24% 11%
workers linguists
Child care workers 24% Administrative and executive secretaries 11%
Advertising and marketing
24% Visual artists 11%
professionals
Cleaners and helpers in offices,
Travel guides 22% 9%
hotels and other establishments
Stock clerks 21% Tailors, dressmakers, furriers and hatters 7%
Journalists 21% Building caretakers 5%
Product and garment Philosophers, historians and
20% 0%
designers political scientists
Elementary workers not
19%
elsewhere classified

Source: European Labour Force Survey special data extracts

51
As already noted, the share of young workers employed The occupation of shop sales assistants is a case in point.
in many of the occupations which have been identified as There were approximately 7.7 million employed in the
surplus to market demand is high compared to their share in EU27 in 2021; 70% are female, 30% have the lowest
all occupations. This is especially true of those occupations possible qualifications, and over 10% were not born in the
in the second column of Table 8. While the occupations country in which they are employed, and 28% of them are
of public relations professionals, graphic and multi-media under 30 years of age.
designers, advertising and marketing professionals and
There are many identified surplus occupations which have
journalists require third level qualifications, many of
similar – and sometimes more disadvantageous – profiles
the other occupations are of low skill, and have a high
as shop sales assistants. The young workers employed in
proportion of persons with the lowest qualifications (see
these occupations require targeted support to enable them
Figure 24). Over 40% of shelf fillers, kitchen helpers and
to reskill so that they may enter an occupation where the
hand packers have the lowest possible qualifications (i.e.
prospects of decent, long-term employment are positive.
0-2 ISCED) and are very vulnerable to unemployment.

5.4. Labour market imbalances and educational attainment

The pie charts in Figure 22 show the educational attainment of those working in the most widespread shortage
and surplus occupations in terms of the ISCED codes. The figures reveal that the share of lowly educated
workers in the EU27 at 16% is below the share in both the occupations in the list of widespread shortages
(22%) and of widespread surpluses (21%).

Figure 22 - Comparison of share of education levels in EU27 (A) and in widespread shortages (B) and
surpluses (C), 2021

A B C

High (ISCED 5-8) Low (ISCED 0-2) Medium (ISCED 3-4)

Source: European Labour Force Survey special data extracts

Furthermore, there is relatively little difference in the Those employed in operative occupations such as heavy
share of the lowly educated between those working in truck and lorry drivers and earth moving equipment
widespread shortage occupations and those working in have also a relatively high number of workers with the
widespread surplus occupations. lowest qualifications. Not surprisingly, those employed
in the elementary occupations have among the highest
To understand why this is the case, it is necessary to explore
percentages of workers with the lowest levels of education
the education profile of each of the most widespread
attainment. This applies in particular to cleaners and
shortage and surplus occupations.
building labourers.
The education profile of the most widespread shortage
There is nobody with the lowest qualifications working
occupations is shown below in Figure 23. It has been pointed
in the healthcare professional occupations or in civil
out in Chapter 3 that these occupations are dominated by
engineering or in two of the four software related
the crafts - especially the building crafts. The graph shows
occupations. There are four occupations with a very low
that many of these occupations are associated with a
percentage of workers with the lowest qualifications.
relatively high percentage of workers with the lowest level
These include one teacher occupation and two software
of education attainment. This is the case for bricklayers and
related occupations and the only associate professional
masons, concrete placers and finishers, plasterers, butchers
occupation of electrical engineering technician.
and fishmongers, sheet metal workers, floorers and tilers,
and painters , roofers and carpenters and joiners.

52
Figure 23 - Education profile of shortage occupations, 2021

Building construction labourers

Cleaners and helpers in hotels, offices and other establishments
Concrete placers, concrete finishers and related workers
Bricklayers and related workers
Butchers, fishmongers and related food preparers
Plasterers
Sheet metal workers
Earthmoving and related plant operators
Floor layers and tile setters
Heavy truck and lorry drivers
Structural metal preparers and erectors
Painters and related workers
Carpenters and joiners
Cooks
Bakers, pastry-cooks and confectionery makers
Welders and flame cutters
Waiters
Bus and tram drivers
Roofers
Plumbers and pipe fitters
Motor vehicle mechanics and repairers
Metal working machine tool setters and operators
Agricultural and industrial machinery mechanics and repairers
Health care assistants
Building and related electricians
Electrical mechanics and fitters
Electrical engineering technicians
Early childhood educators
Software developers
Systems analysts
Specialist medical practitioners
Software and applications developers and analysts not elsewhere classified
Psychologists
Physiotherapists
Nursing professionals
Generalist medical practitioners
Civil engineers
Applications programmers

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Low (ISCED 0-2) Medium (ISCED 3-4) High (ISCED 5-8)

Source: European Labour Force Survey special data extracts

53
A striking feature of the data is the overall dominance The reason for this result is that many of these occupations
of medium level qualifications among those working in – particularly those relating to clerical work, sales, and
the most widespread shortage occupations. This may be personal services – require a medium level qualification.
explained at least in part by the number of craft occupations While this qualification – which is usually associated with
on the list. In most European countries, the completion of the completion of the second level school cycle – differs
an apprenticeship is required to work in these occupations from a craft qualification, they are both given the status of a
and a national craft qualification is usually considered to be medium level qualification under the ISCED code.
a medium level qualification (i.e. 3-5 ISCED code).
In addition, there are almost as many professional
The education profile of the most widespread surplus occupations on the list of widespread surpluses as there
occupations is shown in Figure 24. It is apparent from are on the list of widespread shortages. Indeed, workers
the graph that the overall distribution of qualifications with third level qualifications are distributed more evenly
is broadly similar to the distribution of the widespread across the surplus occupations than across the shortage
shortage occupations. occupations. This finding suggests that there is not always
a positive correlation between employability and level of
education attainment.

Figure 24 - Education profile of surplus occupations, 2021

Building construction labourers

Cleaners and helpers in offices, hotels and other establishments
Kitchen helpers
Hand packers
Shelf fillers
Gardeners, horticultural and nursery growers
Elementary workers not elsewhere classified
Car, taxi and van drivers
Cashiers and ticket clerks
Building caretakers
Security guards
Tailors, dressmakers, furriers and hatters
Stock clerks
Shop sales assistants
Child care workers
Beauticians and related workers
Receptionists (general)
Hotel receptionists
Secretaries (general)
Photographers
Visual artists
Musicians, singers and composers
Travel consultants and clerks
General office clerks
Graphic and multimedia designers
Administrative and executive secretaries
Social work and counselling professionals
Advertising and marketing professionals
Philosophers, historians and political scientists
Travel guides
Translators, interpreters and other linguists
Sociologists, anthropologists and related professionals
Public relations professionals
Product and garment designers
Library clerks
Journalists
Interior designers and decorators
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Low (ISCED 0-2) Medium (ISCED 3-4) High (ISCED 5-8)

Source: European Labour Force Survey special data extracts

54
5.5. Labour market imbalances , labour mobility and migration
There were 193.2520 million persons employed in the EU27 in 2021, of which 170.435 (88%) were born in the
country where they were employed; 15.804 million (8%) were born outside the EU and 6.74 million (4%) in
another EU Member State.

Figure 25 - Comparison of share of migrants in EU27 (A) and in widespread shortages (B) and surpluses (C), 2021

A B C

Born in the EU27, working in Born outside the EU27, working Born in the EU, working in the
another EU27 Member State in one of the Member States country where they were born

Source: European Labour Force Survey special data extracts

It is apparent from the pie charts that there was a higher percentage of migrants employed in both the
widespread shortage occupations and in the widespread surplus occupations than there were in the EU27 in
2021. While the share of migrants employed in all occupations is 12%, the share employed in the widespread
shortage occupations is 16%, and the share in the widespread surplus is 14%.

20 This is the number of those whose birthplace is known in 2021, not the total which is 195.25.

55
Figure 26 - Share of migrants in widespread shortage occupations, 2021

Welders and flame cutters

Waiters
Systems analysts
Structural metal preparers and erectors
Specialist medical practitioners
Software developers
Software and applications developers and analysts not
elsewhere classified
Sheet metal workers
Roofers
Psychologists
Plumbers and pipe fitters
Plasterers
Physiotherapists
Painters and related workers
Nursing professionals
Motor vehicle mechanics and repairers
Metal working machine tool setters and operators
Heavy truck and lorry drivers
Health care assistants
Generalist medical practitioners
Floor layers and tile setters
Electrical mechanics and fitters
Electrical engineering technicians
Earthmoving and related plant operators
Early childhood educators
Cooks
Concrete placers, concrete finishers and related workers
Cleaners and helpers in offices, hotels and other establishments
Civil engineers
Carpenters and joiners
Butchers, fishmongers and related food preparers
Bus and tram drivers
Building construction labourers
Building and related electricians
Bricklayers and related workers
Bakers, pastry-cooks and confectionery makers
Applications programmers
Agricultural and industrial machinery mechanics and repairers

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Born outside the EU27, Born in the EU27, working in the Born in the EU27, working in
working in one of the country where they were born another EU27 Member State
Member States

Source: European Labour Force Survey special data extracts

56
It is interesting to identify which occupations account for these differences. The result for the widespread
shortages is shown in Figure 26 above. Many of these shortage occupations have a higher percentage of
workers who are not born in the EU country where they were employed than the percentage for all occupations
(i.e. 12%).
The most obvious are cleaners, kitchen helpers and for obvious reasons, translators, interpreters, and other
linguists, where the share of workers born outside the EU is over 30%, followed by concrete placers and
finishers, and waiters.

Figure 27 - Share of migrants in widespread surplus occupations, 2021

Philosophers, historians and political scientists

Visual artists
Travel guides
Travel consultants and clerks
Translators, interpreters and other linguists
Tailors, dressmakers, furriers and hatters
Stock clerks
Sociologists, anthropolgists and related professionals
Shelf fillers
Shop sales assistants
Social work and counselling professionals
Security guards
Secretaries (general)
Receptionists (general)
Public relations professionals
Product and garment designers
Photographers
Musicians, singers and composers
Library clerks
Kitchen helpers
Journalists
Interior designers and decorators
Hotel receptionists
Hand packers
Graphic and multimedia designers
General office clerks
Gardeners, horticultural and nursery growers
Elementary workers not elsewhere classified
Cleaners and helpers in offices, hotels and other establishments
Child care workers
Cashiers and ticket clerks
Car, taxi and van drivers
Building construction labourers
Building caretakers
Beauticians and related workers
Advertising and marketing professionals
Administrative and executive secretaries
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Born outside the EU, Born in the EU27, working in the Born in the EU27, working in
working in one of the country where they were born another EU27 Member State
Member States

Source: European Labour Force Survey special data extracts

57
 5.6. Chapter summary
There are approximately 38.82 million workers employed in the occupations identified by
the NCOs as widespread shortages, and 39.88 million employed in occupations identified by
the NCOs as widespread surpluses.
Female workers are significantly underrepresented (34%) in the widespread shortage
occupations, while they are significantly overrepresented in the widespread surplus
occupations (62%). If healthcare occupations were removed from the list of widespread
shortages, the female representation would further decline by 10 million to 3.9 million
or 14%.
There is not a significant difference between the education profile of the most widespread
shortages occupations and the most widespread surplus occupations. Both have a higher
share of lowly qualified workers (ISCED 0-2) and a lower share of higher qualified workers
(ISCED 5+) than the education profile of employment in all occupations.
The reason for the broad similarity in the education profiles is that most of the shortage
occupations require a medium level craft qualification, while most of the surplus occupations
require a medium level qualification also – albeit a more academic qualification than the
craft qualification. Both lists of widespread shortages and surpluses have a similar number
of occupations which require third-level qualifications.
The 11 surplus occupations which require third level qualifications come from the
humanities and the creative arts. The 11 shortage occupations which require third level
qualifications come mainly from the software and healthcare sectors, although they include
one engineering and one teacher occupations.
The biggest difference between the occupations on the lists of the most widespread
shortage and surpluses is that most of the occupations on the shortage list are STEM related,
while most of the surplus occupations are not.
The share of migrants working in the most widespread shortage occupations (16%)
and in the most widespread surpluses (14%) in 2021 was higher than the share in all
occupations (12%).
Most migrant workers came from outside the EU27, and the share among the widespread
shortages was highest for cooks, waiters, and cleaners and for many of the building crafts
(e.g. plasterers). With the exception of translators and interpreters, the highest shares in the
surplus occupations were mainly among the lower skilled such as cleaners, hand packers
and kitchen helpers.
The share of workers under 30 years of age employed in the widespread shortages in 2021
was broadly similar to the share in all occupations. However, the share in the widespread
surplus occupations was significantly higher, creating a situation where many young workers
were vulnerable.

58
6. A
 N EXPLORATION OF THE
CAUSES OF LABOUR SHORTAGES
AND SURPLUSES
6.1. Introduction
Labour shortages and surpluses, at an aggregate level, is something specific about an occupation or job
reflect too many or too few people available to meet which results in it being characterised by a relatively
labour demand. Any observed mismatch between the high level of labour shortage or surplus. Skill may
demand for, and supply of, labour is likely to derive be an issue here. Too many or too few people might
from volume of demand for certain skills at a certain train to enter a given occupation, or there may be
location and its rate of change, and the supply of changes to job content – as a result of, for example,
labour and its change over time. Mismatches may be technological change - which affects the capability
temporary where actors in the labour market are able of existing employees to do their job. The result will
to effectively adjust their behaviour in response to be skill shortages (where skills supply has failed to
the signals they receive about the demand for labour. keep pace with demand) or surpluses (where skills
They may also be temporary where an economic obsolescence leads to people losing their jobs). This
shock, which disrupts the balance between labour then focuses the discussion on how education and
demand and supply, quickly plays out and the labour training systems can better match skills supply to
market returns to its previous state or something near demand. Again, this has been an active area of policy
to it. Mismatches may be more intractable where making at European and national levels as countries
structural factors, such as an ageing population look to make their education and training systems
or shifts in levels of economic activity, inhibit the more responsive to skills demand (Cedefop, 2018;
capacity of labour supply to keep pace with demand European Commission, 2020).
over the longer term. Over time policy makers have
While the previous chapters have shown that many
sought to address labour market imbalances at the
labour shortages are found in relatively skilled jobs
aggregate level through employment and social
(for example for skilled construction, ICT and health
policies which have sought, amongst other things, to:
workers), some are concentrated in jobs which require
increase levels of economic activity in the working age
relatively modest levels of skill (such as cleaners).
population; support people to make the transition
Evidence for Europe, now a little dated, indicated
from unemployment into work; increase the state
that where employers struggled to recruit people
pension age (thereby extending working life), and
with the skills and attributes they sought, this often
facilitate geographical mobility (both moving people
reflected the terms and conditions of employment on
to jobs, and moving jobs to people).
offer rather than a shortage of skills (Cedefop, 2015).
The evidence in the previous two chapters reveals The latest European Working Conditions Survey
that there is an occupational dimension to labour (EWCS) shows that a substantial percentage of jobs in
shortages and surpluses across Europe many of which Europe exhibit relatively low levels of job quality – i.e.
have proved to be persistent over time. This then begs reflected in the share of jobs which are categorised as
a series of questions about the extent to which there strained ones (Eurofound, 2022).

59
Labour shortages and surpluses, in practice, will result from a combination of factors outlined below (see
Table 9). Some may well arise mainly as a consequence of the economic cycle and its occasional vicissitudes,
and some will reflect the uneven distribution of employment opportunities across Europe and within countries.
Others may well be the result of:

– education and training systems not being sufficiently attuned to the changing nature of skill demand;
– mechanisms designed to anticipate emerging labour and skill needs being under-developed; or
– information about the changing demand for labour being poorly disseminated to individuals
and employers.

Some mismatches may result from employers’ challenges to identify and express their HR needs and realise
effective recruitment. There is also the role of employment and social policies and the extent to which these
affect labour supply (e.g. reservation wages, active and passive labour market policies, benefit traps).21

Table 9 - Factors influencing the demand for and supply of labour

Labour demand Labour supply

Shifts in labour demand reflecting macroeconomic Labour market participation (measured with reference
conditions. to, for example, activity rates, and the policies in place
which affect participation rates).
Technological change (e.g. automation substituting Population ageing (and its impact on net labour supply).
for some jobs, creation of new jobs resulting in, for
example, sectoral and occupational changes in the
distribution of employment).
Transition to climate-neutral economy (e.g. Participation levels in education and training – both
leading to the emergence of new types of jobs and initial and continuing (e.g. changes in flows through
employment – i.e. sectoral and occupational changes the education and training system, such as volumes of
in the distribution of employment). This may also learners and the courses/subjects studied).
have an impact on regional labour demand.
Shifts in the sectoral structure of employment, Individuals’ personal work preferences (i.e. the number
which may also have an impact on where demand is of days or hours they are willing to work) or their
concentrated. preferences regarding phased or early retirement.
Regional shifts in employment demand. Migration and mobility (net gains or losses to the
working age population).
Terms and conditions of employment (e.g. relative Active labour market policies and their capacity to
wage levels, workplace well-being). stimulate activity rates.
Employers’ preferences for labour – such as demand
for people to work part-time.

Source: Authors

21 The examination of employment and social policy is outside the scope of this study where the focus is primarily upon understanding
recent shifts in labour shortages and surpluses across Europe.

60
6.2. Aggregate shifts in the demand for and supply of labour

6.2.1. Changes in the demand for labour

Employment increased substantially across nearly all Member States during 2022 (see Figure 28).22 This has
been observed across nearly all countries though there are exceptions (i.e. in Croatia, Slovenia, Poland, and
Czechia). Alongside the increase in employment levels was an increase in the vacancy rate (i.e. vacancies as a
percentage of employment plus vacancies) further indicating the relatively strong bounce back in the labour
market following COVID-19 (Figure 29). Other things being equal, one might expect this to result in labour
shortages. The bounce back was not even across Member States with several countries recording a fall in
employment levels between 2021Q3 and 2022Q3, alongside a fall in the vacancy rate, perhaps presaging a
more general weakening of the labour market over the short-term in Europe (European Commission, 2022).

Figure 28 - Change in employment 2021Q3 to 2022Q3 (%)

5.0 4.5
4.0 4.0
4.0
2.9 2.9 2.9 2.8
Employment change (%)

3.0 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.4

2.1 1.9 1.8
1.8 1.8 1.7 1.6
2.0 1.3 1.1
0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6
1.0
0.0
-1.0 -0.2
-0.3 -0.5
-2.0 -1.1
Malta
Lithuania
Ireland
Greece
Denmark
Sweden
Cyprus
Netherlands
Spain
Bulgaria
Estonia
Austria
Latvia
Germany
Belgium
France
Finland
EU27
Italy
Hungary
Portugal
Slovakia
Romania
Luxembourg
Croatia
Slovenia
Poland
Czechia
Source: Eurostat Employment and activity by sex and age - quarterly data [LFSI_EMP_Q]

22 While EURES and the analysis of shortages and surpluses in the preceding chapters cover both EU and non-EU countries, the analysis
in this chapter focuses on the EU in order to provide a consistent coverage of all the main issues.

61
Figure 29 - Percentage point change in the vacancy rate 2021Q3 to 2022Q3 (%)

1.2
1.2 1
Percentage point change in

1
0.8 0.7
0.6
the vacancy rate

0.6 0.5 0.5

0.4
0.4 0.3 0.3
0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1
0 0
0
-0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1
-0.4 -0.2
-0.3 -0.3
-0.6
-0.8 -0.6
Austria
Germany
Netherlands
Luxembourg

EU27
Sweden
Greece
Slovenia
Hungary
Belgium
Estonia
Slovakia
Latvia
Italy

Malta
Spain
Bulgaria
Ireland
Poland
Romania
Lithuania
Cyprus
Finland
Croatia
Czechia
Source: Eurostat Job vacancy statistics [JVS_Q_NACE2]

A comparison of unemployment and vacancy rates provides an indication of the extent to which there is an
excess stock of labour which might be drawn upon to fill vacancies. Countries in the lower right quadrant of
Figure 30 exhibit both relatively low levels of unemployment compared with the EU27 average and relatively
high vacancies rates. These are the countries which experience relatively tight labour market conditions. This
group includes Belgium, Germany, the Netherlands, and Austria. It also includes Czechia where the number of
people in employment contracted in 2022. The upper left quadrant of Figure 30 shows countries with relatively
high unemployment rates but relatively low vacancies rates. In other words, those are countries where one
might expect relatively high incidence of labour surpluses. This includes Spain and Greece.

Figure 30 - Unemployment and vacancies rates by Member State, 2022Q3

14.
ES
12. EL
Unemployment rate (%)

10.

8. IT
FI SE
HR LV
SK CY
6. EU27 BE
RO PO LT EE
LU AT
4. BG IE SI
HU NL
PL DE
2. MT CZ

0.
0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6.
Vacancy rate (%)

Source: Eurostat Job vacancy statistics [JVS_Q_NACE2] and Unemployment quarterly data [UNE_RT_Q]

62
The degree of consistency between the data it an increase in the number of vacancies, are not
presented above to the shortages and surpluses sufficient in themselves to explain the shortages and
reported in Chapter 3 is modest. For example, surpluses reported in Chapter 3. In general, standard
Chapter 3 revealed that Slovenia, Belgium, Estonia, labour market indicators at the aggregate level
Norway, Switzerland, Finland, Italy, and France are not sufficient to identify labour shortages and
reported a relatively high number of shortage surpluses. As observed above, countries experiencing
occupations. These countries are not exclusively ones relatively high employment and vacancy rates can
which are characterised by low unemployment rates, nevertheless be characterised by a wide range of
strong employment growth, or high vacancy rates. surpluses and, likewise, countries where employment
Similarly, if one looks at labour surpluses, Denmark levels and vacancy rates have been in decline also
and Hungary stand out as reporting a large number report shortages across a number of occupations.
of surplus occupations. Yet Denmark, over the Evidently there are factors which relate to specific
recent past, has experienced relatively high levels occupations or jobs which drive the incidence of
of employment growth, and the vacancy rate in labour shortages and surpluses.
Hungary has increased.
Consideration is given to developments on the supply
The information provided above indicates that side, at an aggregate level, which are likely to have
employment growth in aggregate, and along with some bearing on the incidence of labour mismatches.

6.2.2. Supply side factors: Activity rates and labour market slack
Table 10 reveals that activity rates have increased over time suggesting that there has been an increase in the
potential labour available to meet labour demand. Growth in activity rates has increased particularly for older
people (aged 50 to 74 years), namely by 7.1 percentage points over the 2010 to 2021 period (compared with
3.3 percentage points for the population as a whole). Certain groups remain disadvantaged. The activity rates
of women remain below those of men. Those of migrants remain below those born in a country. These all act to
constrain the capacity of countries to respond to labour shortages. There is also substantial variation in activity
rates by Member State: from 84% in the Netherlands to 65% in Italy (Figure 31).

Table 10 - Economic activity rates by age, sex and citizenship, 2010 and 2021

2010 2021 % point change

All 70.3 73.6 3.3

Men 77.0 78.7 1.7
Women 63.7 68.5 4.8
EU migrants 76.5 78.2 1.7
Non-EU migrants 68.8 67.0 -1.8
20-24 year olds 60.5 59.7 -0.8
50 to 74 year olds 42.6 49.7 7.1

Source: Labour Force Survey [LFSA_ARGAN]

63
Figure 31 - Activity rates by Member State, 2021

90 83.7 82.9 78.2 20

79.6 79.1 78.8 78.7 78.2
80 77.2 76.7 76.6 76.2 75.8 75.2 75
74.6 74.6 73.7 73.6 73.2 73 72.8 72

% point change 2010 to 2021

70 69.7 68.7 67.3
65.6 64.5 15
60
Activity rate (%)

50 10
40 5
30
20 0
10
0 -5
Netherlands
Sweden
Denmark
Estonia
Finland
Germany
Lithuania
Malta
Austria
Cyprus
Czechia
Hungary
Latvia
Portugal
Slovenia
Ireland
Slovakia
Spain
EU27
Luxembourg
France
Poland
Bulgaria
Belgium
Croatia
Greece
Romania
Italy
2021 % point change 2010 to 2021

Source: Labour Force Survey [LFSA_ARGAN]

In order to assess the potential capacity to address 12.%. The implication is that over time the potential
unmet labour demand, Eurostat has developed a pool of labour that could be activated to meet
measure of labour market slack (Eurostat, 2022). This increases in labour demand has been in decline. This
includes, in addition to the number of people who are may be a result of changes in employment policies
unemployed, the following groups: part-time workers which are better able to engage people in the labour
who want to work more, people available for work force. Whatever the cause, labour markets in Europe
but do not look for work, and people who are looking are becoming tighter. The situation varies by country,
for work but are not immediately available. Over time from 20.8% in Spain to 3.0% in Czechia (see Figure 32).
the amount of labour market slack has been in more It is evident that countries with relatively low shares
or less continuous decline. In 2010Q3, 17.1%, of the of labour market slack are also ones which report a
extended labour force comprised those potentially relatively large amount of labour surplus occupations
available to work,23 in 2019Q3 - just before the (e.g. Denmark and Hungary).
pandemic - it stood at 13.6%, and by 2022Q3 it was

23 The extended labour force is defined by Eurostat as those who are in the labour force plus those people available for work but do
not look for work, and people who look for work and are immediately available for work.

64
Figure 32 – Labour market slack by Member State, 2022Q3

25.0
20.8
% extended workforce aged 15-74 years

19.8
20.0 18.3

15.6 15.6
14.6
15.0
12.6 12.4
12.2 11.511.5
11.4 11.2 11.0
10.8 10.6 10.3
10.0
10.0 8.9 8.7
7.5 7.5
7.0 6.9
5.7 5.0
4.9
5.0
3.0

0.0
Spain
Italy
Greece
Finland
Sweden
France
Luxembourg
Cyprus
EU27
Belgium
Netherlands
Croatia
Portugal
Ireland
Estonia
Latvia
Austria
Denmark
Romania
Lithuania
Bulgaria
Slovakia
Germany
Slovenia
Hungary
Poland
Malta
Czechia
Source: Eurostat Labour market slack - quarterly data [LFSI_SLA_Q]

6.2.3. Supply side factors: Working-age population change

Any increase in the supply for labour will be While the population of the EU grew by nearly 6
constrained by the size of the population (especially million people in the period between 2010 and 2021,
the working age population). In many European the situation varied by Member State with several
countries, populations are ageing with, consequently, recording a decline in their population (see Figure 30).
an impact on population size. It also has implications The implication is that the potential supply of labour
for the characteristics of labour demand. It is readily available within some countries has been shrinking
apparent that ageing increases the demand for a and is expected to continue to do so in the future.
range of activities linked to, for example, health A clearer picture on the implications for the labour
and social care (older people are more likely to market can be gleaned from Figure 33 and Figure 34.
experience health problems and require social care) Figure 33 shows that the percentage of the population
and construction (e.g. building or adapting homes to accounted for by people aged 15 to 24 years has been
meet the needs of older people). Health, social care, in decline across all countries. In many respects this
and construction occupations are shortage ones age group represents the workforce of tomorrow; its
across many, if not all, European countries. proportionate decline, especially in countries with a
shrinking population, has major implications, other
things being equal, for meeting labour demand.

65
Figure 33 - Population change by Member State, 2010 to 2021

3,500
3,000
2,500
Population change (000s)

2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
-50
-1,000
-1,500
France
Germany
Sweden
Netherlands
Spain
Belgium
Austria
Ireland
Denmark
Finland
Luxembourg
Malta
Cyprus
Slovakia
Slovenia
Czechia
Estonia
Italy
Latvia
Portugal
Hungary
Poland
Lithuania
Croatia
Greece
Bulgaria
Romania
Source: Population change - Demographic balance and crude rates at national level [DEMO_GIND]

Figure 34 - Proportion of the population aged 15–24 years, 2010 and 2021

18
16
Percentage of population

14
12
aged 15-24

10
8
6
4
2
0
Ireland
Denmark
Cyprus
Netherlands
France
Belgium
Luxembourg
Sweden
Finland
Portugal
EU27
Croatia
Romania
Austria
Greece
Hungary
Spain
Germany
Malta
Lithuania
Slovakia
Poland
Italy
Estonia
Slovenia
Latvia
Bulgaria
Czechie

2021 2010

Source: Population change - Demographic balance and crude rates at national level [DEMO_GIND]

Alongside the proportionate decline in the population enter employment in order to offset the loss of those
aged 15–24 years has been the increase in the share of leaving work to take retirement. It is evident that several
the population aged 65 and over (see Figure 35). While countries with relatively high shares of their population
some of this group are still economically active many are aged over 65 years are ones that reported a relatively
retired. This has implications for replacement demands high number of shortage occupations in Chapter 3 (i.e.
– i.e. the number of people who will be required to Italy and Finland).

66
Figure 35 - Proportion of the population aged 65+ years, 2010 and 2021

25.
20.
Percentage aged 65+

15.
10.
5.
0.
Italy
Finland
Greece
Portugal
Germany
Bulgaria
Croatia
EU27
Latvia
France
Slovenia
Estonia
Hungary
Czechia
Denmark
Sweden
Lithuania
Spain
Netherlands
Belgium
Romania
Austria
Malta
Poland
Slovakia
Cyprus
Ireland
Luxembourg
2021 2010

Source: Population change - Demographic balance and crude rates at national level [DEMO_GIND]

6.2.4. Supply side factors: Labour mobility migration

Migration and labour mobility provide a source of labour supply to countries. Figure 36 shows the net migration
(including intra-EU mobility) to countries in 2019 (this year was chosen because the latest data available are
for 2020 and these are affected by the lockdowns which prevented the international movement of labour). It
shows that migration and labour mobility make, in many countries, a net positive contribution (more people
move into a county than move out) and thereby a contribution, potentially, to labour supply.

Figure 36 - Net migration in Member States, 2019 (including intra-EU mobility and extra-EU migration)

500
400
Net migration (000s)

300
200
100
0
-100
Spain
Germany
Italy
Netherlands
France
Sweden
Belgium
Poland
Portugal
Austria
Hungary
Greece
Czechia
Ireland
Malta
Slovenia
Finland
Luxembourg
Lithuania
Cyprus
Estonia
Slovakia
Bulgaria
Croatia
Latvia
Denmark
Romania

Source: Eurostat Emigration and Immigration [MIGR_EMI2 and MIGR_IMM8]

67
The impact of labour mobility and migration can have labour supply in the countries they had left but having a
an uneven effect on a country. Its impact may be beneficial impact on labour supply in the countries to which
concentrated on particular sectors or jobs. In Greece, they returned. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine also affects labour
for instance, following the financial crisis many people supply. In Poland, the construction industry which has had a
left the country and never returned. This had an impact dependence upon migrant labour from Ukraine lost some of
on several sectors, but notably construction where its workforce as Ukrainians returned home to fight in the war
substantial hikes in wage levels proved insufficient to against Russia (Euroactiv, 2022; Ciobanu and Gosling, 2022).
retain or return construction workers to the country As noted in Chapter 3, construction jobs are ones that are
(Financial Times, 2022). After the COVID-19 lockdowns identified as shortage ones in many countries.
had been lifted in late 2020, many Eastern Europeans
Box 2 below provides further details of how Russia’s invasion
living elsewhere in the EU returned to their home during
of Ukraine has affected labour mismatches.
the pandemic and remained there, thereby reducing

Box 2 - Demographic effect of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine

Almost a year after its start, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has had important consequences for labour
supply. While the outflow of many Ukrainian male workers from EU Member States to fight is driving
up labour shortage in some sectors (especially construction, manufacturing, and transport), the flows
of those fleeing the country have the potential of alleviating the labour shortages at least over the
short term. Indicative evidence suggests that some sectors which have faced labour shortages – such as
accommodation and catering – may have benefited from this inflow of labour.

Source: Focus group with NCOs; Ciobanu and Gosling, 2022

While there are positive stories about labour mobility job and population growth since 2007. These cities -
and migration relieving pressures on some shortage including Amsterdam, Copenhagen, London, Madrid,
occupations the volume of people moving between Munich, and Paris - have become Europe’s leading hubs
Member States for work is modest with most people of innovation and talent that are able to attract people
heading for either Germany or Spain (as shown in Figure from other regions and countries. This then exacerbates
36 above). More speculatively, the Eurobarometer on regional divides and the capacity to meet labour demand
the intentions of Europeans to move country for work in the disadvantaged regions. It also indicates that labour
suggests labour mobility may have a more significant mobility and migration is unlikely to be a solution to the
role to play. Around 18% of individuals in the EU are depopulation of less well-developed regions in Europe.
interested in working abroad of which 60% said they
In an ideal world, labour shortages in one country or region
were likely to do so in the next five years (Eurobarometer,
would be met from labour surpluses in other countries or
2022). This implies that around 27 million people plan
regions. There is evidence – as provided by the example in
to work in another country over the next five years. This
Chapter 4 – that initiatives are in place to help achieve this
potentially improves labour supply in recipient countries
goal. On the whole, however, the evidence suggests that
(i.e. in the most popular destination countries - Germany,
the situation is much more complex and less optimistic
Switzerland, the UK, Spain, and North America). A
than this might suggest. Many occupational shortages
substantial share of those who are thinking about moving
and surpluses are common to countries across Europe.
have relatively high levels of educational attainment, so
Moving country in Europe is about finding a job, but it
they have the potential to fill a range of skilled jobs, and
is also about finding a better job and progressing one’s
tend to be relatively young. Where people are thinking
career (Eurobarometer, 2022). The implication is that
about moving, finding a better job is an important reason
people with the attributes to fill shortage jobs in the
for doing so.
destination country might well be contributing further to
For those countries which are able to attract labour the shortages in their country of origin at least in the short-
from abroad, this might not solve all labour imbalances. term. There is some evidence that people return to their
Workforce may, for example, end up being geographically country of origin after a period of time away bringing with
concentrated within a country. People often settle in them the wealth of experience they have obtained while
those areas where there is an existing community from working abroad. This appears to be the case in Estonia for
their home country. There is also a tendency to settle in example where, until recently, there had been substantial
large cities. In Europe, 48 cities are home to 20% of the net outflows of people of working age to other parts of
continent’s population but have, as estimated by Smit Europe (Cedefop, 2020).
et al. (2020), generated more than one-third of the EU’s

68
6.2.5. The regional dimension

People tend to search for jobs in local labour markets. growth (such as Spain) have areas within them
Their capacity to move region or country for work is which have grown at a high rate. This shows that
typically inhibited by a range of factors such as family the nature of employment growth reflects local
ties, limited information about jobs in other areas, economic specificities.
and personal preferences or tastes about where they
When looking at the impact of factors such as the
want to live and work. Accordingly it is important to
transition to a climate-neutral economy on the
consider the local labour market dimension when
demand for labour, there are indications that the
addressing labour shortages and surpluses. Table 11
effects are localised as well. For example, fossil fuel
shows the areas in the EU which reveal the highest
production is regionally concentrated. Employment
and lowest rate of employment growth over the
in peat production is concentrated in specific
2010 to 2021 period. Two features are immediately
regions of Ireland, Sweden and Finland, oil shale
apparent: first, the difference in the rate of change
in Estonia, and coal production in regions spread
over time between those areas which have grown
across Germany, Poland, Czechia, Slovakia, Hungary,
most strongly and those which have contracted is
Slovenia, Romania, Bulgaria, Greece and Spain.24
substantial; and second, countries which have as a
whole experienced relatively weak employment

Table 11 - Top 10 and bottom 10 regions by employment growth, 2011 to 2021

Top 10 % change Bottom 10 % change

Ciudad de Melilla, ES 30.5 Ipeiros, EL -21.6

Közép-Magyarország, HU 27.2 Sud-Vest Oltenia, RO -20.9
Pomorskie, PL 26.6 Severozapaden, BG -16.8
Észak-Alföld, HU 26.5 Macroregiunea patru, RO -15.2
Schwaben, DE 24.4 Swietokrzyskie, PL -15.2
Nyugat-Dunántúl - HU 24.0 Sud – Muntenia, PT -14.9
Niederbayern, DE 22.4 Ionia Nisia, EL -13.7

Zachodniopomorskie, PL 22.2 Makroregion Centralny, PL -13.2

Wielkopolskie, PL 21.7 Dytiki Ellada, EL -13.1

Alföld és Észak, HU 21.5 Nord-Est, RO -13.0

Source: Eurostat Employment by NUTS2 regions [LFST_R_LFE2EMP]

There is also a local dimension to the degree of labour market slack and thereby the capacity to respond to
increases in the demand for labour Figure 37) reveals that within countries there are, at most, modest regional
variation in the degree of labour market slack. There are, however, countries which show a relatively high level
of regional variation such as Bulgaria and Romania, which might suggest that in some instances there is a
relatively strong regional dimension to labour market slack. In general, labour market slack seems to be driven
by national rather than local factors.

24 https://energy.ec.europa.eu/topics/oil-gas-and-coal/eu-coal-regions/coal-regions-transition_en

69
Figure 37 – Labour market slack by region, 2021

Labour market slack, 2021

(5 of extended labour force, people aged 15-74, by NUTS 2 regions)

> 24.0
17.5 -< 24.0
12.5 -<17.5
7.5 -<12.5
5.5 -< 7.5
< 5.5
Data not avaliable

Source: Eurostat (online data [lfst_r_sla_ga] available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/products-eurostat-news/-/ddn-20221124-2)

70
6.3. Q
 ualitative changes in the demand for and supply of labour:
The occupational dimension

6.3.1. Changes in the occupational structure of employment

Chapter 3 indicated the range of occupations where the qualification levels of those in employment (see
NCOs reported shortages or surpluses. In general, the Table 12). As can be seen, over time the share of those
shortage occupations are related to construction, in employment with a tertiary level qualification has
health care, software/ICT, and hospitality. increased substantially.
Many affected jobs are in the middle of the The implication of the information contained in
occupational hierarchy (e.g. associate professionals/ Table 12 and Table 13 is that the nature of labour
technicians and craft and related trades workers) demand over time has become more highly skilled.
along with some professional occupations. The Attempts have been made to explain this largely
surplus occupations include a mix of professional and with reference to the way in which technological
clerical occupations. change has an impact on the skill content of existing
jobs (e.g. requiring new combinations of skills),
Table 11 shows how the demand for skills has
created new types of job (the nature and skill needs
changed over the last 10 years. Occupation provides
of which are only just beginning to emerge), and
a proxy measure of skills demand albeit a far from
destroyed some jobs (where automation substitutes
perfect one. Over time employment has become
workers). Arguably it is important not to exaggerate
increasingly concentrated in jobs which are
the extent to which employment is becoming more
characterised by relatively high levels of skill. This
highly skilled. Table 12, for instance, indicates that a
is notable with respect to the increase in the share
sizable share of employment remains concentrated in
of employment accounted for by professional and
occupations requiring modest levels of skill, such as
associate professional/technician occupations. This
in the clerical and support worker occupation where
change has taken place alongside an increase in
employment has continued to grow.

Table 12 – Occupational change in the EU27, 2011–2021

Share of Share of Change Percentage

employment employment (000s) change
2011 (%) 2021 (%)

Managers 5.4 5.0 -251.5 -2.5

Professionals 16.8 21.4 10,953.1 34.8
Technicians and associate professionals 15.8 16.0 2,199.7 7.4
Clerical support workers 9.9 10.0 1,368.1 7.4
Service and sales workers 16.7 15.6 -336.2 -1.1
Skilled agricultural, forestry and fishery
4.6 3.0 -2,735.3 -31.7
workers
Craft and related trades workers 12.7 11.7 -528.2 -2.2
Plant and machine operators and
7.8 7.6 349.4 2.4
assemblers
Elementary occupations 9.3 8.5 -469.3 -2.7

Source: Eurostat Labour Force Survey [LFSA_EISN2]

71
Table 13 – Qualification change in the EU27, 2011–2021

Share of Share of Change Percentage

employment employment (000s) change
2011 (%) 2021 (%)

Less than primary, primary and lower

21.2 15.9 -8,202.6 -21.1
secondary education (levels 0-2)
Upper secondary and post-secondary
49.9 47.3 -417.7 -0.5
non-tertiary education (levels 3 and 4)

Tertiary education (levels 5-8) 28.7 36.6 17,962.2 34.1

Source: Eurostat Labour Force Survey [LFSA_EGEAD]

Occupational change is driven largely by changes in substantial changes to the type of tasks which need
the sectoral structure of employment. Table 14 shows to be carried out, thereby resulting in the content of
that over a 10 year period there have been sharp jobs changing.
changes in the sectoral structure of employment
In looking further at how the content of jobs has
toward a service-oriented economy, especially
changed, and the implications of this for labour
with the relatively strong growth in employment in
shortages and surpluses, consideration is given to
information and communication services (which grew
some of the key drivers of occupational change in the
by 37%), professional, scientific and technical services
labour market. These are:
(23%), and health and social work (16%). At the same
time, the content of jobs undertaken within sectors is
– technological change;
likely to change as a consequence of, amongst other
things, the introduction of new technologies and – the transition to a climate-neutral
associated changes in the organisation of work. Even European economy;
in those jobs where the overall level of skill required to – demographic change; and
do the job may not have changed there may well be – COVID-19 and its immediate aftermath.

Table 14 – Employment change by economic activity in the EU27, 2011–2021

Share of Share of Change Percentage

employment employment (000s) change
2011 (%) 2021 (%)

Agriculture, forestry and fishing 5.1 3.6 -2,438.6 -25.9

Mining and quarrying 0.4 0.3 -161.5 -22.2
Manufacturing 16.8 16.3 645.6 2.1
Electricity, gas, steam and air 0.8 0.8 32.5 2.2
conditioning supply
Water supply; sewerage, waste 0.8 0.8 213.5 15.2
management and remediation
activities
Construction 7.4 6.7 -676.4 -5.0

72
 Share of Share of Change Percentage
employment employment (000s) change
2011 (%) 2021 (%)

Wholesale and retail trade; repair of 14.0 13.7 593.2 2.3

motor vehicles and motorcycles
Transportation and storage 5.1 5.3 838.0 8.9
Accommodation and food service
4.4 4.0 -281.9 -3.5
activities
Information and communication 2.8 3.6 1,899.2 37.0
Financial and insurance activities 2.9 2.8 167.8 3.2
Real estate activities 0.7 0.8 249.3 18.3
Professional, scientific and
4.8 5.6 2,012.9 22.9
technical activities
Administrative and support
3.8 3.9 485.1 6.9
service activities
Public administration and
defence; compulsory social 7.3 7.3 569.2 4.2
security
Education 6.9 7.5 1,709.4 13.5
Human health and social work
10.0 11.0 2,856.5 15.5
activities
Arts, entertainment and
1.4 1.5 302.2 11.4
recreation
Other service activities 2.4 2.7 753.8 17.2

Source: Eurostat Labour Force Survey [LFSA_EISN2]

6.3.2. Technological change as a driver of occupational change

Table 13 reveals the way in which the sectoral (Autor, et al. 2003; Acemoglu and Restrepo, 2018).
structure of employment has changed over time. Low-skilled jobs which required a degree of personal
Various forms of technological change drive these interaction with customers – i.e. the application of
developments, and influence the impact on the non-cognitive skills – were regarded as being much
number and content of jobs. The theory of skills- less susceptible to automation because the tasks
biased technological change sees new technologies carried out were less predictable (as were the tasks
– especially digitalisation – increase the demand for in high-skilled jobs for much the same reasons). Skills
people with relatively high levels of qualification (and obsolescence was much more likely to take place in
a decrease in the demand for people working in less the middle of the occupational hierarchy resulting in
skilled jobs). The evidence has not always supported potential surpluses unless training was available to
the changes predicted by skills-biased technological allow people to move into new jobs.
change, mainly because growth in employment at
The evidence for the skills-biased technological
the bottom end of the skills hierarchy as well as at the
change has been rather weak in Europe (Fernandez
top has been observed over time. The explanation,
Macias and Hurley, 2017; Cedefop, 2022a). And
according to the theory of routine-biased
there has always been an issue about the extent to
technological change, is that automation (however
which automation actually substitutes for workers in
defined) affects some jobs more than others. Jobs
practice. While some commentators have suggested
considered to be susceptible to automation are those
that the new generation of robots might potentially
in the middle of the occupational hierarchy because
wipe out large swathes of employment across the
they contain tasks which are routine in the sense that
occupational hierarchy (Frey and Osborne, 2017;
they are predictable and thereby codifiable such that
Brynjolfsson and McAfee, 2014), less speculative
they can be replaced by machines (robots/AI routines)

73
econometric analyses have shown that around 8–14% allowing companies and their workforces time to
of jobs are potentially replaceable by automation adapt to changes introduced (Bessen, 2015). The
and these are predominantly low-skilled ones observations from the NCOs, whilst recognising
where people have little access to training/reskilling that technological change has implications for
(Nedelkoska and Quintini, 2018; Pouliakas, 2018). labour shortages and surpluses, tend towards de-
Access to training is seen as important in preventing exaggerating its importance (see Box 3). It is also
skills obsolescence and job loss. evident from information provided in Chapter 3 that
many of the shortage occupations are in the middle
Indubitably technological change is driving up the
of the occupational hierarchy – exactly the kind of
demand for higher level skills. This is evident from
jobs which one might expect to be in surplus rather
the latest European Skills and Jobs Survey (Cedefop,
than shortage.
2022a). Technological change is often incremental,

Box 3 – Labour shortages and surpluses resulting from new technologies

According to the survey answers submitted by NCOs, new technologies are related to
23 shortages and 41 surpluses (2% and 6% of the answers provided).25 More specifically,
technological changes affect six of the most widespread shortages – contact centre
information clerks (Portugal); software and applications developers and analysts not
elsewhere classified (Ireland and Portugal); software developers (Czechia); systems analysts
(Portugal); telecommunications engineering technicians (Portugal). They also affect eight
of the most widespread surpluses – i.e. administrative and executive secretaries (Portugal);
bricklayers and related workers (Slovakia); building construction labourers (Slovakia); data
entry clerks (Estonia); electrical and electronic equipment assemblers (Slovakia); general
office clerks (Portugal); hand packers (Bulgaria); and shop sales assistants (Slovakia).
A much higher number of NCOs said that shortages (422, 36% of the answers analysed)
and surpluses (210, 31% of the answers analysed) were unrelated to the impact of
technological changes.

Source: Analysis of data provided by NCOs; Cedefop 2021

Surpluses are, to some extent, concentrated in It may be that there is an over-supply of qualified
elementary occupations. It may well be the case that people to work in the occupations identified as being
automation is able to substitute for these workers in surplus, especially where technology has been
which results in surpluses arising (as indicated by able to substitute workers to some degree such as
Pouliakas, 2018). But it is difficult to see these as skill in journalists, photographers, or psychologists. One
surpluses given that the skills needed to undertake feature of digitalisation is its capacity to affect the
many of these jobs are modest. Other shortages are job content of a wide-range of jobs including those
at a professional level. previously thought to lie outside the scope of its reach.

25 Data were collected through the questionnaire sent to NCOs in June 2022 (please refer to Annex 1 for a detailed description of the
methodology). Missing values are excluded from the analysis. The answers analysed relate to 1,187 shortages and 679 surpluses.

74
6.3.3. The transition to a climate-neutral economy and occupational employment

The transition to a climate-neutral economy is likely Often the impact of the transition to a climate-
to have a substantial impact on the way in which neutral economy is to not necessarily to create green
goods are produced and consumed (such as the occupations per se, but to alter the content of existing
move to a circular economy). An indication of the jobs at the margin (Dierdorff et al., 2011; Cedefop,
scale of change which is likely to affect industry over 2019). In other words, people need some additional
the medium-term can be observed from the various skills related to greening in their current job but this
policies being introduced in the European Union does not necessarily substantially change the nature of
under the rubric of the European Green Deal (EGD). work undertaken.
These changes are likely to have a substantial impact
For the time being the evidence which relates the
on the content of existing jobs and see the emergence
transition to a climate-neutral economy to the
of a range of new jobs related to areas of activity
emergence of labour shortages or surpluses is
such as renewable energies, waste management,
somewhat muted. Data from LinkedIn (2022) shows
and agri-food.
that the transition to a climate-neutral economy is
At the outset, it needs to be stated that the impact of bringing about an increase in demand for people
the transition to a climate-neutral economy on labour to work in a range of green-specific jobs, such as
demand is difficult to gauge. Estimates of the impact sustainability manager, wind turbine technicians, solar
of the European Green Deal on overall employment consultant, ecologist, and environmental health and
levels by occupation show, at an aggregate level, a safety specialists. The uniqueness of these jobs, and
modest impact (Cedefop, 2021b). It is estimated that the fact that they are new, may well result in them
the EGD will create over 480,000 new jobs in the EU being difficult to fill until such a time as a sizable
by 2030. Waste management is one area where the occupational labour market in these jobs is created.
implementation of the EGD will be seen to have
The information provided in Box 4, based on the
marked positive impact on employment levels.
responses of the NCOs, indicates the extent to
Most of the new occupations (70%) will be filled by
which the transition to a climate-neutral economy is
skilled manual and non-manual workers (Cedefop,
associated with either labour shortages or surpluses.
2021b). Eurofound’s analysis of the EGD pointed to
The findings are broadly consistent with the results
its implementation to bring about labour shortages
from the latest European Working Conditions
in agriculture, manufacturing, construction, energy,
Telephone Survey (EWCTS, 2021) which found
transport, professional and scientific services,
that 63% of workers in the EU27 were employed in
tourism, and education (Eurofound, 2021).
occupations where green transition would have little
There may also be some local impact which is lost or no impact. That said, 14% of workers were employed
in the aggregate statistics. Policies which result in in occupations that may require enhanced skills as a
industries with relatively large carbon footprints result of the transition to a climate-neutral economy,
being scaled down (such as coal mining) may take and 15% were in occupations that may likely see
place in localities where employment losses are increased demand due to the transition (Eurofound,
not immediately offset by the creation of new jobs. 2022). The information reveals some of the jobs where
26
New jobs which result as a consequence of policy the transition to a climate-neutral economy has the
ambitions such as the EGD may well be created in capacity to exacerbate existing shortages, such as in
areas some distance from where jobs have been lost. construction-related jobs.

26 Coal mining and related activities tend to be mostly located in Poland, Germany, Czechia, Romania, and Bulgaria (Alves Dias, et al., 2018).

75
Box 4 – Labour demands resulting from the transition to a climate-neutral economy

According to NCOs, the transition to a climate-neutral economy affects 59 labour market

imbalances, the majority being shortages (46, 4% of the total shortages analysed), especially
craft and related trades workers (15), plant and machine operators, and assemblers occupations
(12).27 A much higher number of shortages (350, 29% of the total) was not affected by ’greening’.
Similarly, according to NCOs, 254 surpluses are not affected (37% of the total surpluses analysed)
against 13 surpluses - all in craft and related trades occupations, elementary occupations, plant
and machine operators, and assemblers occupations – that are seen to be affected by the green
transition (2% of the total surpluses analysed).
Research broadly agrees that, for the time being, there is a relatively good balance between
the supply and demand of green skills28. That said, the supply of green talent is well below the
level needed to meet the goals set in the green transition and this is slowing the rate at which
they can be reached. This means that, globally, ‘green workers’ were hired at a higher rate than
‘non-green workers’ which is, perhaps, indirect evidence of a skill shortage (LinkedIn, 2022). This
may, however, also reflect the particular conditions in which, for example, those working in the
renewables sector need to work (such as working offshore).
While assessments on future green skill demands are quite general in most countries, more
detailed analysis has been carried out in a few Member States. Cyprus reports that more than
one in three people employed in the green economy will be employed in professional, scientific
and technical activities, a sector already experiencing significant unmet demand, which is
likely to persist. Denmark highlights the importance of access to the right skills for the green
sector, largely STEM ones. Ireland flags the need for training and upskilling for workers in ‘new’
jobs in the green economy especially eco-construction specialists, energy data analysts, and
sustainable energy technicians. France underlines that all occupations should be considered
part of the climate-neutral transition. Targeted training is therefore essential in all occupations.
On the other hand, Poland pinpointed transport and construction as sectors that are likely to
face the biggest transformations as a result of the green transition.
Overall, shortages in the construction sector are expected to worsen (also) as a consequence
of the green transition, which, on one hand will require workers to acquire new skills, and, on
the other, will increase overall demand – i.e. to build homes with greater energy conservation
or install renewable energy heating sources in residential premises. For example, in Italy
the national builders’ association ANCE estimated at the end of 2021 that another 265,000
construction workers were needed just to complete current projects. Salaries in the sector
rose but fail to attract enough people to meet the rising demand for construction workers.
Companies in Spain and Portugal also warn that labour shortages could jeopardise EU-funded
construction and renovation projects.

Source: Analysis of data submitted from NCOs

27 Data were collected through the questionnaire sent to NCO in June 2022 (please refer to Annex 1 for a detailed description of the
methodology). Missing values are excluded from the analysis. The answers analysed relate to 1,188 shortages and 679 surpluses.
28 Green skills are defined as those skills that enable the environmental sustainability of economic activities. Green talent is a person who
has explicitly added green skills to their profile and/or are working in green or greening job (LinkedIn, 2022, p. 6).

76
6.3.4. Demographic change as a driver of occupational change

As indicated earlier in the discussion many countries in At the occupational level, an indication of ageing’s impact
Europe have ageing populations. This has implications for on labour demand can be gleaned from Figure 38 which
labour market imbalances with respect to: shows the percentage of workers aged over 50 years in
each occupation. It can be seen that this has increased over
– the need to replace workers exiting the labour time which, in turn, indicates that other things being equal,
market for reasons of retirement; the pressure to replace people exiting the labour market
– meeting the needs of an ageing population, has increased. This is common to both occupations which
especially in relation to health and social care and are in shortage (e.g. craft and related workers) and those in
in the built environment where design needs to surplus (clerical occupations). In the case of the former, this
factor in the mobility needs of older people. is likely to increase the number of shortages, in the case of
surpluses it is likely to have the opposite effect.

Figure 38 – People aged 50+ as a share of employment in each occupation, 2011 and 2021

47.3
50 45.3
41.6
45
% of occupation aged over 50 years

38.5
35.4 36.4
40 33.7 33.6
32.6 32.3
35 30.9 30.3
28.3 26.9 27.4
26.5
30 23.8 24.8
25
20
15
10
5
0
rs

als

sio nd

ers

ers

rke y

rs

mb ors

s
on
wo str
ls

rs

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ork

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ach
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ass

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2011 2021

Source : Eurostat Labour Force Survey [LFSA_EISN2]

There is also a sectoral dimension to potential replacement demands (see Figure 39). It is notable that sectors
such as water supply have relatively aged workforces which has implications for the transition to a climate-
neutral economy given that this is a sector where labour demand is likely to increase. Health and social care is
also a sector with a relatively aged workforce. This has been identified as one area where there are numerous
occupational shortages at a variety of levels (i.e. doctors, nurses, and carers). It is likely that the ageing of the
workforce is one factor which is driving shortages in this particular occupation. Box 5, based on the responses
of the NCOs, gives an insight into the nature of shortages in health and social care.

77
Figure 39 – Percentage of workforce aged over 50 years by sector, 2021

50
43
% aged over 50 years

45 42 41
39 38
40 37 36 36 36 34 34 33 33
35 32 31 30 29
30 26
23
25
20
15
10
5
0
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ect

Art nce ancia n

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sal hnicific

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Inf d ser tion

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Pro andterta ties

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Source: Eurostat Labour Force Survey [LFSA_EISN2]

Box 5 – Difficulties meeting the demand for health and social care workers

As shown in Chapter 3, nursing and medical practitioners were identified as one of the most widespread
shortages. This predates the pandemic which, however, increased the demand for healthcare workers.
Globally, the International Council of Nurses warns that as much as half of the current nursing
workforce could leave the profession within the next few years. This issue could lead to a global crisis
in under a decade.29 Migration is another driver that worsens the shortages in some countries and
regions. In Eastern European countries, many nurses emigrated after the accession to the European
Union. In France, recruitment of healthcare workers is especially difficult in the border areas with
Luxembourg and Switzerland as both neighbouring countries are able to pay higher wages. In
Luxembourg, recruitment is relatively difficult in the northern regions because of low population
density. The competition for qualified healthcare workers also occurs between sectors. For example,
trained nurses often prefer to work in the healthcare sector rather than the social care one because
of the higher salaries and better working conditions. The competition also takes place between the
public and private sectors. In Italy, following the pandemic, many doctors have resigned due to stressful
working conditions, heavy-duty shifts, and low salaries compared to the European average. Many of
these doctors shifted from the national health system to the private one which is able to offer higher
salaries that partly compensate for the unattractive working conditions.30 This phenomenon has come
to the fore during the last months of 2022 and aggravated the shortages in the public health sector.

29 https://www.randstad.com/workforce-insights/talent-acquisition/why-there-a-global-labor-shortage/
30 https://www.corriere.it/sette/attualita/22_ottobre_29/medici-gettone-guadagno-c7f610f8-55da-11ed-be15-822086495e48.
shtml?refresh_ce; https://www.sanita24.ilsole24ore.com/art/aziende-e-regioni/2022-11-10/fiaso-grandi-dimissioni-sanita-2021-via-
servizio-sanitario-nazionale-3mila-medici-155536.php?uuid=AESsHuFC

78
It also needs to be borne in mind that technology is also changing the skill needs required in health and social
care jobs. Gerontechnologies, for instance, have the potential to change the nature of caring jobs through
the use of robotics and remote monitoring of well-being (Zigante, 2020). Whether these are able to offset
shortages (where technology substitutes for workers) or increase them (by increasing the skill needs required
in care jobs) remains to be seen.

6.3.5. COVID-19 as a driver of occupational demand

A further driver of changing occupational labour who exit the labour market to take up retirement.
demands is COVID-19. Although furlough schemes
The analysis by Pouilakas and Branka (2020) provides
protected much employment across Europe during
an indication of those occupations where people
periods of economic lockdown, not all jobs and all
were at risk of losing their jobs as a consequence
workers were protected equally. People working in
of the pandemic (see Figure 36). Many of these
jobs where remote working/social distancing was not
are shortage occupations (notably care workers,
possible, young people, and those with temporary
cleaners, drivers, etc.). There is the possibility that
employment contracts have been adversely affected
the shortages reported in Chapter 3 reflect to some
(Pouliakas and Branka, 2020; Adams-Prassl, et al., 2020;
degree a bounce back from the pandemic and job
Redmond and McGuiness, 2020; Fana, et al, 2020;
lay-offs. Where people have been laid off, there is no
Eurofound/JRC, 2021). The impact on young people
guarantee that they will return to their former jobs
is particularly noteworthy given the ageing of the
when the labour market returns to growth.
European workforce and the need to replace those

Figure 40 – Occupations and sectors in which incumbents face a relatively high risk of job loss

Sectors RISK LEVEL Occupations

Care workers
Accommodation and Very high
food services Sales workers
Personal service workers
Wholesale and retail
trade, sales shop work Hospitality & retail managers
Health professionals
Social and personal
services Food preperation helpers
Health associate professionals

Drivers & vehical operators

High Cleaners and helpers
Education or health
services Customer clerks
Protection workers
Agriculture, horticultural,
forestry or fishing Street service workers
Agricultural labourers
Cultural industries (arts,
entertainment) Farmworkers and gardeners
Construction workers
Transportation or storage
Business managers
Teaching professionals
Forest & fishery workers
CEOs, officials & legislators

Source: Adaptation from: Pouliakas and Branka (2021), p. 7

79
During 2022 many tech-companies reported lay-offs in an effort to cut costs. ICT jobs are typically in shortage
(see Waters and Chavez, 2023 for an example). Whatever the reason behind the reduction in staff by tech-firms
(whether it results from over-hiring during the pandemic when many people commenced using a variety of
technologies in order to work from home) or other developments in the economy, it indicates the way in which
shortages can quickly dissipate in response to a variety of economic imperatives.

6.4. The workplace dimension

6.4.1. Understanding employers’ recruitment difficulties

One measure of a labour shortage is whether – the location of the workplace (the more remote
employers experience difficulties recruiting people. the workplace the more difficult it will be to
Where employers experience shortages this is likely attract recruits);
to result from a number of factors, including: – communication or advertising of a job vacancy;
– degree of engagement with local education and
– shortages of people with the skills required
training institutions.
either in the external labour market or in internal
labour markets;
The focus here is upon understanding whether
– terms and conditions of employment on offer shortages occur as a result of skill shortages (however
compared with other employers looking for defined) or the terms and conditions of employment
the same skills and/or workers’ preferences and on offer. This is important because there are often
expectations; claims made that recruitment difficulties result from
– employers’ challenges to anticipate skill needs skill shortages. This implies that the policy response
that they will need for a longer period of time; should be to increase the provision of training to
– the degree of specificity in recruitment address skill shortages. Empirical evidence has
criteria (the more specific the qualities sought questioned whether claims of skill shortages always
from applicants, the more likely it is that the bear scrutiny given that it is (also) the terms and
combination of qualities will be found); conditions of employment that can cause recruitment
difficulties (Cedefop, 2019; Eurofound, 2021).

6.4.2. Evidence of skill shortages

Skill shortages are difficult to define. McGuiness et is reported requires incumbents to have completed
al. (2016) have demonstrated the variety of ways in a substantial amount of training. When looking at the
which skill shortages can be identified. This includes: extent to which enterprises report skill shortages a
degree of caution is required. Evidence from the US,
– qualification levels (does an individual hold a for example, casts doubt on the scale of skill shortages
qualification commensurate with the skill level of because many employers who report them do little
the job); to resolve them (e.g. through providing training)
– fields of study (is the individual qualified in a (Cappelli, 2015).
subject relevant to their job); Data on skill shortages at the EU-level are relatively
– differential occupational wage growth (where scarce. By looking at the percentage of workers who
wage levels are rising relatively rapidly in skilled possess a tertiary level qualification but are working
occupations this may reflect shortages of skills in occupations other than managerial, professional, or
associated with those occupations); and associate professional ones, an indication is provided
– employers’ reports of skill shortages and gaps of the extent to which an individual’s qualifications
(usually with reference to recruiting skills from are commensurate with their job. The data reveal
the external labour market or the extent to which that levels of over-qualification have been static over
there is a gap between the existing workforce’s time. In 2010, 20.3% were over-qualified compared
skills and the skills required to do the job). with 21.5% in 2020. There is, however, substantial
variation by Member State (see Figure 41). There are
One might add to the list of definitions whether an variations by sector, with relatively high levels of over-
employer responds to a skill shortage in some way, qualification recorded in sectors such as wholesale
such as increasing the provision of training, and but relatively low levels in the health sector.
whether the occupation in which the skill shortage

80
Figure 41 – Changes in levels of over-qualification by country, 2010 to 2020

(Over qualification rate - 2020 compared with 2010 - change in % point)

14.0
12.5

12.0
10.7

10.0
Percentage point change

8.0 7.2
6.5 6.7
6.4 6.0 5.9
6.0
4.6
4.0 3.5
3.1
3.5
2.7
1.8 2.1
2.0 1.3 1.4
0.9 0.5 0.6
0.4
0.0
-0.1 -0.5 -0.3
-0.5 -0.7 -0.7 -0.9
-2.0 -2.1
-2.2

-4.0
BE
BG
CZ
DK
DE
EE
IE
EL
ES
FR
HR
IT
CY
LV
LT
LU
HU
MT
NL
AT
PL
PT
RO
SI
SK
FI
SE
IS
NO
CH
Source: Eurostat Labour Force Survey

The data in Figure 41 are indicative. Qualification is Manpower Talent Shortage Surveys have revealed,
not a direct measure of an individual’s capability to over time, the increasing incidence of employers
undertake a job and thereby not a direct measure reporting difficulties recruiting staff with the
of skill. Employer surveys provide a further and skills they wanted: from 31% in 2010 to 75% in
more detailed insight into the causes of labour 2022 (Manpower, 2022). Further evidence of the
shortages. In 2019, the European Company Survey extent to which labour shortages result from
(ECS 2019) reported that over three quarters shortage of skills is provided by the EC’s analysis
of employers who had recruited over the past of occupational and qualification mismatches
three years had experienced difficulties finding (European Commission, 2022). In summary, this
people with the required skills (26% found it analysis reveals that the pandemic increased the
very difficult and 51% fairly difficult), with 21% level of occupational mismatch but this has since
of establishments reporting that it was not very declined. This implies that the pandemic had a
difficult to find candidates with the desired skills differential but largely temporary impact on the
(Eurofound/Cedefop, 2020). Similarly, the global occupational characteristics of labour demand.

81
It is easy to confound reports of employers establishments of the ‘focus on personality and
experiencing difficulties recruiting people with the internal transfers, recruitment somewhat challenging’
attributes they require with skill shortages. Employers type scored best.
are often looking for qualities that are not necessarily
The above comes close to saying that where
ones which are related to skills, such as job readiness
organisations provide a relatively good working
or fit with the organisation. Analysis of the ECS 2019
environment (i.e. it scores high on organisational well-
classified employers according to their approaches to
being), linked to a recruitment strategy which focuses
recruitment (Eurofound/Cedefop, 2019). Employers
mainly on whether applicants have the qualifications
were classified as those which:
and experience which indicate whether they have the
capability to do the job, are better able to recruitment
– experienced great difficulty recruiting job-ready
the skills they need. By inference, organisations which
candidates (this accounted for 36% of employers
have more complicated recruitment criteria which
characterised by, amongst other things, placing
include, for instance, fit with the organisation, may
an emphasis on previous job experience and job
well be experiencing recruitment difficulties which,
readiness when recruiting);
at least in part, are unrelated to skills. A person may
– focused on personality and internal transfers, apply for a job with the skills or experience required,
recruitment somewhat challenging (this but will not be recruited because they are not
group accounted for 26% of employers; here, considered a good fit with the organisation or work-
a personality that fits the organisation tends to ready. Work-readiness for example may be something
be the most important recruitment criterion, as which needs to be acquired in the workplace
they are more prepared to take on workers who (Handel, 2005).
are not job-ready, and make relatively high use of
internal recruitment, amongst other things); There is indicative evidence that where organisations
are engaged in high productivity activities this
– recruited job-ready candidates with little difficulty
increases the demand for skills (European Commission,
(this comprised 39% of all employers; the most
2022). This can, in turn, at least over the short- to
important recruitment criteria are previous
medium-term, result in skill shortages because the
work experience in similar jobs, or having all the
supply-side struggles to keep pace with shifts in the
qualifications necessary to do the job).
demand for skills. In general, however, the evidence
points to high productivity organisations being the
The results demonstrate that the approach to
most likely to invest in the skills of their workforces,
recruitment had a bearing on organisational well-being
thereby reducing any tendency towards increases in
and performance. ECS 2019 defines organisational
skill shortages (Wrucck and Pouliakas, 2022).
well-being with reference to relationships between
management and employees, worker motivation, Analysis which has been able to separate the
absenteeism and staff retention. Performance is shortage of skills in the external labour market
measured with reference to profitability, profit from other factors such as offering relatively poor
expectations, changes in production volume, and working conditions suggests that between 60 and
expected changes in employment. The analysis 80% of reports of skill shortage from employer may
revealed that in terms of well-being, establishments well derive from other non-skill related features of
of the ‘recruiting job-ready candidates with little employment in the workplace (Cedefop, 2015). This
difficulty’ type scored best. The implication is that a is consistent with evidence which reveals that skills
simpler approach to recruitment – with the emphasis anticipation has improved along with adaptiveness
on previous experience and required qualifications of national vocational education and training systems
rather than issues to do with organisational fit and to meeting labour market needs over the past 15 to
job readiness – is associated with the qualities that 20 years (Cedefop, 2018; Hogarth, 2022).
motivate and retain staff. In terms of performance,

82
6.4.3. The importance of working conditions

The implication of the commentary provided above The occupational distribution of strained jobs or
is that a substantial share of reported skill shortage poorly resourced jobs is relatively pronounced in
vacancies are due to non-skill factors. The non- the case of craft workers – an area identified as one
skill factors are ones which, more or less, reflect where shortages occupations are concentrated.
working conditions.31 The latest European Working From Figure 42 it can be seen that more than 50% of
Conditions Telephone Survey (EWCTS 2019) provides people working in craft, skilled agricultural, service
information on the quality of work faced by workers. and sales, plant and machine, and elementary
Around 30%of individuals work in an environment occupations experienced, at best, poorly resourced
characterised by the demands of the job being working conditions. It is perhaps likely that in a jobs
in excess of the resources available to do the job market characterised by relatively high levels of
(Eurofound, 2022). This provides a measure of job labour demand, that those with the skills required
strain. The survey shows that 4% of workers were in to fill these jobs, will look to enter jobs which have
extremely strained jobs, 8% were in highly strained relatively good working conditions. Since working
jobs, and 19% were in moderately strained jobs. The conditions may only be recognised by the worker
remainder were in resourced jobs, meaning they had once they are in a job, there is likely to be a relationship
more access to job resources and were less exposed between labour turnover, working conditions, and
to job demands. But even here, 26% were reported as recurrent recruitment which manifested itself as a
being in poorly resourced jobs. labour shortage.

Figure 42 – Job quality by occupation, 2021

Health

Transport

Agriculture

Commerce and hospitality

Industry

Construction

Public administration

Other services

Education

Financial services

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Extremely strained Highly strained Moderately strained Poorly resourced Moderately resourced Highly resourced

Note: Data are from the 2021 EWCTS

Source: Eurofound 2022, p. 55.

31 Trade unions highlight the importance of improving working conditions to relieve labour shortages in some occupations. To this
end, the current imbalances might increase the bargaining power of workers. See for example https://www.socialeurope.eu/
labour-shortages-offer-trade-unions-valuable-opportunity; https://www.etui.org/events/tight-labour-market-threat-opportunity;
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2023/01/trade-unions-recession-davos2023/Governments.

83
 6.5. Chapter summary
There are a number of factors which determine labour shortages and surpluses. Over the last couple of
years the EU economy and labour market has experienced a period of rapid change driven by COVID-19,
the dislocations in supply-chains which followed the ending of lockdowns, and most recently the energy
crisis brought by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Over 2021/2022 employment levels have increased as the
economy bounced back from the drop in output experienced during the height of the pandemic. It is
perhaps unsurprising that employers experience labour shortages during a period of strong employment
growth.
It is also evidence that there are changes taking place which affect the occupational demand for labour
and the content of jobs. Demographic change and the transition to a digital and climate-neutral EU
economy affect the occupational structure of employment, the task repertoire of jobs, and the skills
people need to do their jobs. Rapid employment demand allied to changes in the job content has
resulted in a situation where labour surpluses and shortages exist side-by-side.
Where labour shortages exist, there is a tendency of categorising these are skill shortages with a
prescription to increase education and training so that unmet labour demands are met. Without doubt
some labour shortages are skill related, but in many instances the evidence points to working conditions
being a cause of shortages.

84
7. CONCLUSIONS AND
POLICY POINTERS
7.1. Summary of the main findings
One of the most striking findings from the report is the Some of the shortages may reflect recent events such
magnitude of the current imbalance between labour as the COVID-19 pandemic or Russia’s invasion of
demand and labour supply in Europe. Almost 400 Ukraine and may abate in time. There are, however,
different occupations were classified by at least one also shortages that have existed for quite some time,
country as a shortage, while 321 different occupations such as software related occupations or construction
were identified by at least one country as a surplus. craft occupations.
The fact that a large number of shortage and surplus
The situation regarding healthcare occupations is
occupations were identified does not mean that many
somewhat different. While a widespread shortage
occupations are a shortage in some countries and in
of doctors and nurses has been acknowledged in all
surplus in other countries. Such a finding would have
previous reports back to 2019, a widespread shortage
created the possibility of successfully addressing the
of healthcare assistants and specialist doctors has
issue of labour market imbalances in Europe through an
been apparent only since 2021 and the emergence
extensive process of matching across national borders
of shortages in these occupations may have been
the shortages in some countries with the surpluses
influenced by the pandemic. Two other healthcare
in others.
occupations, physiotherapists and psychologists
Unfortunately, in the case of most of the occupations have appeared on the list of widespread shortages
identified as shortages, there are only one or two for the first time in the current report. There are also
countries where the occupations have been identified three ‘hospitality’ occupations of waiter, butchers,
as a surplus. Nevertheless, the possibility to match many fishmongers and related food preparers, and bakers,
shortage occupations with surpluses even in a few pastry cooks and confectionary makers for the first time,
countries presents a potentially useful strategic option. while the occupation of cook was already present in
previous reports.
There are 38 specific occupations which are classified
in the report as widespread shortages – the term The list of the most widespread surplus occupations
‘widespread’in this case refers to occupations which were includes nine different clerical occupations, six different
identified as shortages in at least 11 different countries. elementary occupations and perhaps surprisingly, 11
The 38 shortage occupations were dominated by three professional occupations (i.e. occupations which require
groups of occupations; craft occupations – especially in a third level qualifications). The clerical occupations
construction and engineering; healthcare occupations, include general secretaries and receptionists and office
and occupations related to software. Most of the clerks and various library clerks and stock clerks. The
occupations which were identified as a widespread professional occupations include many in the creative
shortage were also identified as a severe shortage. arts and in the humanities. In contrast to the list of
shortage occupations, there were no STEM disciplines
There were 37 specific occupations which were classified
among the professional surplus occupations.
in the report as widespread surplus occupations – the
term‘widespread’in this case refers to occupations which The report presents a profile of persons employed in the
were identified as surpluses in at least five countries.32 75 widespread shortage and surplus occupations in the
EU27 in 2021.33
Most of the occupations which were identified as a
shortage were also classified as a shortage of high
magnitude (i.e. severe shortage).

32 While 29 countries identified shortage occupations, only 24 countries were able to identify surplus occupations. The lower number
of countries identifying surpluses meant that the threshold for identifying a widespread surplus occupation was lower.
33 The profiles reflect those working in the EU27, as covered by EUROSTAT data extractions received.

85
While females accounted for 46% of all those working of migrants working in the shortage occupations
in the EU27 countries in 2021, they represented was 16%, and 14% in the surplus occupations.
only 34% of those working in the most widespread These shares are somewhat higher than the share of
shortage occupations, and 62% of those who migrants working in all occupations in 2021 (12%).
were employed in the most widespread surplus
However, as in the case of the other personal
occupations.
characteristics, the share of migrants is much higher in
The share of workers with third level qualifications respect of individual occupations. For example, over
(ISCED 5+) was lower in both the shortage 30% of those employed as cleaners and plasterers are
occupations (27%) and the surplus occupations (25%) migrants, while among surplus occupations over 30%
than the share in all occupations (37%). In contrast, of kitchen helpers are migrants, and this is also true -
the share of those with the lowest qualifications for obvious reasons - of translators and interpreters.
(ISCED 0-2) was higher in both the shortage (22%)
Identifying the occupations which are associated with
and the surplus occupations (20%) than it was for all
multiple indicators of ‘disadvantage’ may contribute
occupations (16%).
to the design of more effective active labour
The dominant form of highest education attainment market measures.
was the medium level (ISCED 3-4). However, the
The report identifies a combination of factors which
type of qualification differed between shortage
contribute to the imbalance between labour demand
and surplus occupations. Craft occupations tend to
and supply. The tendency in recent years for young
dominate the list of shortages, while a second level
people to study academic subjects rather than train
completion certificate (e.g., Baccalaureate) was the
for a vocational skill is an example.
dominant form of education qualification34 among
those who were employed in the surplus occupations. The ageing of the European population and the
increasing capacity of medical technologies to
The youth profile (e.g. 15–29 years) of those who
prolong life has had a significant impact on the
worked in shortage occupations (18%) or in surplus
number of people seeking healthcare services, and
occupations (20%) in 2021 did not differ greatly from
there is evidence that the supply of appropriately
those who worked in all occupations (17%).
qualified graduates has not kept pace with
However, there were significant differences in the these developments.
case of some occupations. For example, among
The widespread diffusion of new technologies into
waiters, 44% were under 30 years of age, while 27%
every aspect of our lives is driving the demand for
of building labourers were also under 30 years of age.
software skills, while it may also have resulted in
Among the surplus occupations, 52% of shelf fillers
reducing the market demand for some workers –
and 37% of cashiers and ticket clerks and 32% of
particularly those who are employed in occupations
hotel receptionists were under 30 years of age.
which are associated with work which is typically of
In the analyses, the location of a worker’s birth is a routine nature.
used to identify whether they are migrant within the
Other influential elements refer to the structural
country of their employment. On this basis, the share
shift in economic activities, the transition to a
climate-neutral economy, migration and mobility or
workplace practices including working conditions
and recruitment approaches.

34 It might also have included a post-secondary qualification, but not a third-level qualification.

86
7.2. Policy options
The findings in this report suggest that there are a period. The share of those on the lowest qualifications
number of policy options which could be explored (i.e. ISCED 0-2) declined from 20% to 16% - equivalent
to alleviate the imbalances between labour demand to a reduction of 5.4 million. The numbers who had
and supply which are highlighted in this report. These completed secondary and post-secondary education
policy options35 are discussed under six specific issues. or training (i.e. ISCED 3-4) also declined from 50% to
47%. However, the share of workers who had third
1. Relevant education, training opportunities level qualifications increased from 29% to 37% over
and career guidance for both genders this period.
The report shows that recruitment to almost every While these figures show that there is a significant
occupation which has been classified as either a upward trend in the proportion of young people
widespread shortage or a widespread surplus is participating in third level education, it does not
predominantly from one gender. This is particularly inform on the extent to which those attending higher
the case for all 18 craft shortage occupations, all nine secondary education and post-secondary education
surplus clerical occupations, the four software-related are participating in apprenticeship.
shortage occupations and shortages of nurses and
However, the figures which are available are
healthcare assistants.
consistent with a significant decline in the numbers
This situation suggests that boys and girls are either of craft workers over the last 10 years. While total
not been given the opportunity to obtain the relevant employment in the EU27 expanded by 8 percentage
qualifications for some occupations or are not being points (pp), the number of workers in the broad
properly informed of the employment prospects occupation group ‘craft workers and related trades’
associated with different occupations - or both. The increased by only 3pp.
situation poses a significant threat to the employment
Furthermore, in many of the countries surveyed in
of girls in particular as female workers dominate
this report – especially those that have classified
employment in the surplus occupations.
construction or engineering occupations as shortages
It is important that the findings from reports such – there was a significant contraction in employment
as this are circulated to schools and career guidance in the broad occupation group ‘craft workers and
officers. It is also imperative that senior managers who related trades’ over the last 10 years.
are involved in sectors (e.g. software) where there are
In view of the fact that the demand for many
many job opportunities inform young people of these
construction craft workers is increasing due to
opportunities – especially those of the gender which
population and employment growth and the
is significantly under-represented in their workforce.
reduction in the average household size, the
Other initiatives could be considered, such as significant reduction in the employment of
gender-specific courses in some apprenticeships and craft workers over the last 10 years is an issue of
education programmes, and in the case of the former, considerable concern.
incentives to employers for the sponsorship of female
One factor which may be both contributing to the
apprenticeships – specifically in traditionally male
labour market imbalances among craft workers, and
dominated occupations.
which could possibly also form a part of the solution
to the challenge of labour shortages in this area, is
2. European audit of apprentice numbers
the higher complexity of the work of some crafts.
There is a widespread belief that young Europeans For these crafts, the level of education required in
are to an increasing extent pursuing academic studies some European countries has increased, as indeed
rather than attending training courses in vocational have the failure rates. The crafts include electrical and
skills. If this is the case, the subsequent reduction in plumbing, toolmaking - specifically for pharma and
supply may be contributing to the shortages in craft medical devices sectors, the mechanical automotive
occupations which have been identified in many maintenance fitter, and mechanics generally.
countries in this report.
The demand for innovative ‘green’ technologies has
It is difficult to be precise about the extent to which contributed to the increasing complexity of plumbing
the numbers attending apprenticeship courses and electrical work, while the demands of the
have changed in recent years. Employment in the pharma and medical devices sectors for exceptionally
EU27 increased by 8% over the most recent 10-year low levels of tolerances in tools requires a level of
period (2012Q2 to 2022Q2) which was equivalent to statistical knowledge more associated with third level
an increase of 14.5 million. However, the education courses than apprenticeships.
profile of the workforce changed significantly over this
In addition, the replacement of the fossil-fuel based
35 Such initiatives may already be in place in many European countries.

87
transport fleet with electrical and hybrid vehicles In addition to provision of information on the
has transformed the type of engine that mechanics matching of shortages/surpluses it is important
– to an increasing extent – are required to maintain to also conceive and implement (more) awareness
and repair. raising activities addressed to workers and
employers on the opportunities and risks of labour
These technological developments could form the
mobility, as well as concrete orientation measures.
basis for discussions on the possible enhancement
of the levels of the relevant craft qualifications for
4. Monitoring technological displacement
certain trades. The fact that there is a significant
of labour
upward trend in the number of young people
attending third level colleges – despite the earnings While developments in new technologies are creating
potential for many qualified craft workers – suggests a demand for those who possess relevant software-
that status may be one of the considerations related qualifications, it is also posing a risk for those
motivating young people to seek white-collar who are employed in occupations which are associated
employment. If this is the case, an enhancement of with work of a routine nature. Much of the work
the status of some craft qualifications could present associated with the surplus occupations of secretaries,
a partial solution to the challenge. receptionists, shop sales assistants and hand packers
could be described as routine, and consequently is
However, more data are required – particularly
vulnerable to being displaced by technology.
time-trends on the numbers participating in
apprenticeship across European countries. Cedefop An exploration of employment trends in these
(2021c) has recently completed a major report occupations provides mixed results. The clerical and
on this issue but encountered some difficulties in support group of occupations - which contains nine
constructing a comprehensive picture. occupations which are classified as surplus - are
occupations which potentially could be replaced by
On a different scale, additional measures could
technology because of the routine nature of many of the
include information provision and awareness raising
tasks of a clerical worker.
towards workers, young people and their families,
as well as incentives to opt for apprenticeships, At the level of the EU27, employment in clerical and
including support to cross-border apprenticeships, support occupations increased by 8pp between 2012Q2
and review of apprenticeship systems to check for and 2022Q2 – the same magnitude that employment in
their attractiveness (including working conditions). all occupations increased by.
However, while the total EU27 employment trends in the
3. Cross-border matching
clerical and support group of occupations over the last
While the number of identified widespread shortage 10 years suggests that there was little if any technological
occupations which are also identified surplus displacement of the tasks of clerical workers, the data
occupations in another country is limited, there are present a very different picture when employment
a large number of occupations which have been trends in individual countries are analysed – particularly
identified as both shortage and surplus occupations in those countries that classified clerical occupations
in different countries. Such information is potentially as surplus. Despite the fact that all of these countries
valuable in any policy initiative which is designed to recorded positive growth in total employment, they all
address labour market imbalances. experienced significant reductions in the employment
of clerical and support workers, resulting in a decline in
These data have to be made available to the relevant
their share of overall employment in every case.
stakeholders - particularly EURES and the national
Public Employment Services (PES) - in a user-friendly, It may be the case that many of those countries that
timely and flexible format. The data require to be classified clerical workers as surplus occupations
arranged in such a manner that relevant stakeholders are acting as a harbinger of future trends. A policy
can easily and quickly identify those countries where which is designed to address labour market
the occupations which are classified as shortages in imbalances in Europe should monitor the share of
their country are classified as surpluses. employment in occupations which are typically
associated with routine tasks as part of an overall
A reluctance to move to other regions which
strategy to identify the extent to which technology
have greater employment opportunities – even
is displacing employment and thus contributing to
within the same country – has been identified in
the emergence of labour market imbalances.
this report as a potential barrier to resolving some
labour market imbalances.

88
5. The demand for ‘green’ skills 6. Working conditions
All of the countries which are participating in this study Public and policy debate on labour market imbalances
have agreed targets with the European Commission do not only discuss the impact of new technologies
in respect of reducing their level of carbon emissions. and the transition to a climate-neutral economy, but
also the influence of working conditions. According
The greatest sources of carbon emissions in Europe
to the responses of the countries participating in this
include transport, agriculture, the burning of fossil
study, the shortage occupations often associated
fuels and the built environment. From the perspective
with unfavourable working conditions include heavy
of labour market imbalances, the action plans for the
goods vehicle drivers, bakers, pastry cooks and
reduction of carbon in the built environment are
confectionery makers, bricklayers and related workers,
likely to have a significant impact.
bus and tram drivers, and butchers, fishmongers, and
One of the major strategies for the reduction of carbon related food preparers.
in the built environment includes the retrofitting of
On the basis of this response, a policy designed to
the existing housing stock. This strategy will impose
address the issue of labour market imbalances must
more demands on construction craft workers, who
address the issue of working conditions.
have been identified in this report as being in short
supply. An example from one EU country – Ireland The issue is multi-dimensional and includes certain
– will illustrate the extent to which this activity will demographic profiles (notably qualification levels and
accentuate the current shortages. migration background), modest wages and anti-social
hours of work. The dissatisfaction with overall working
The Irish government has introduced a scheme to
conditions is generally expressed in relatively high
retrofit 500,000 houses – equivalent to a quarter of
labour turnover rates. Any policy which is designed to
the total housing stock – to very high energy rating
improve retention in these occupations must involve
standards by 2030.
the sector representative bodies to ensure that
The most recent forecasts suggest that 23,000 workers changes do not result in unfair competition between
are required to deliver this scheme and that almost all firms. Focusing on younger or older jobseekers might
of them will require a craft qualification (Government also reap benefits as the inherently anti-social hours
of Ireland, 2022). To put this in perspective, total are particularly challenging for male and female
employment in the construction sector in Ireland is workers with small children.
currently 170,00036 of which roughly 100,000 are craft
The six issues discussed above demonstrate that the
workers.
factors which contribute to labour market imbalances
The ‘green agenda’ is expected to increase the in Europe are multi-faceted. Consequently, a
demand for construction craft skills. Indeed, it may successful policy initiative in this area will require a
also increase the demand for software skills which holistic approach which addresses all the different
is another skill area which has been classified in dimensions of the challenge.
this report as a shortage. Some of the technologies
associated with sustainability such as electric and
hybrid vehicles and wind turbine technology will
require some levels of computer literacy to maintain
and repair the technology.

36 171,000 were employed in the construction sector in Ireland in 2022Q3.

89
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9. ANNEXES
Annex 1: Detailed methodology for data collection
In June 2022, ELA circulated a template (see Finally, in a very small number of cases, there was an
Annex 2) to the NCOs of 30 countries and three inconsistency in the template between the code and
regions seeking detailed information on shortage the description of the occupation. Where it was not
and surplus occupations. These countries and regions possible to resolve the inconsistency, the occupation
include the 27 Member States of the European was not included in the analyses.
Union (EU) plus Iceland, Norway, Switzerland, and
Concerning Belgium, the list of shortages and
for the very first time, Liechtenstein. In the case
surpluses received from the three autonomous
of Belgium, the NCOs of the three autonomous
regions were merged into a single national Belgian
regions, namely the Flemish Region, the
response. Duplicates were removed and a quality
Brussels-capital region, and the Walloon Region,
check was conducted on the qualitative answers
provided separate regional data.37
provided. When information was not convergent –
Each NCO was asked to provide a list of shortages and e.g., the same shortage occupation is ranked as high
surpluses in their country – there was no maximum magnitude by one autonomous region and as low
or minimum number stipulated. The NCOs were magnitude by another - the national result has been
requested to provide the data in 4-digit ISCO ’08 labelled as ‘no clear convergence’. These few results
occupation codes. were excluded from the analysis.
Data received were quality checked for completeness It is worth noting that there were a number of
and consistency and when necessary NCOs were modifications made to the data collection template
contacted for clarifications to the data provided. This (‘quantitative’ questionnaire) compared to previous
means that in some instances data provided by NCOs editions of this report, partly stemming from a
had to be aligned and adjusted for comparability consultation with a group of NCOs at the beginning
purposes: this might imply that the number of of the assignment:
shortage and surplus occupations submitted in some
of the templates may not be the number of shortages – No ex-ante number of shortages or surpluses to
and surpluses transferred to the database for be identified;
further analyses. – Requirement for objective assessment of
Firstly, in some of the templates, the occupation codes magnitude of shortage or surplus;
which identified the shortage and surplus occupations – Questions on the impact of the transition to a
were duplicated. In these cases, the duplicates were climate-neutral economy, new technology and
identified and systematically removed so that the working conditions on labour market imbalances.
final lists of surpluses and shortages were composed
exclusively of unique occupations. This procedure Templates from all 27 Members of the European
resulted in fewer occupation codes transferred Union and Norway and Switzerland were completed
to the database. In other cases, some occupation for shortage occupations, while 24 templates were
codes were provided in the more aggregated 2-digit completed in respect of surplus occupations (see
or 3-digit formats rather than the more granular Table 1). The absence of information on surplus
4-digit format. In general in these cases, the 4-digit occupations from five countries was mainly due to
occupations within the more aggregated group were the fact that the source of their data included only
explicitly included in the analyses – creating more shortages.
4-digit occupations than were originally submitted in
the template.

37 The three Belgian regions are presented as one country in this report. In previous reports, Belgium was presented as three separate
regions. However, the data from the three regions is available should it be required.

93
Special data extracts were requested from Eurostat were used, the majority dated in 2022. The document
on the profiles of persons employed in the EU27 in research concerned documents drafted in English.
4-digit ISCO ’08 occupations. These profiles included The review encompassed 45 documents including
gender, youth (15-29 years), highest education EU-level studies, academic and grey literature.
attainment and place of birth. The objective of seeking Information was collected into a synthesis matrix
these data was to assess the extent to which labour that classified the impact that each driver has on (i)
market imbalances impacted on disadvantaged the labour market in general, (ii) specific sectors and
groups of workers. occupations, and (iii) vulnerable groups.
Each country was requested to provide a range of ELA also circulated a qualitative questionnaire to the
information in respect of each identified shortage and NCOs seeking their responses to a number of questions
surplus occupation. To guide the NCOs in completing on issues such as the impact of the transition to a
the questionnaire, a definition of ‘labour shortage’ climate-neutral economy, of new technologies and of
was provided, together with an explanation for each cross-border mobility on labour market imbalances in
information sought (see Annex 2). This information Europe (see Annex 3).Field work further entailed the
included the extent of the shortage or surplus (i.e., was organisation of three focus group meetings involving
it of low, medium, or high magnitude). The concept of social partners, the NCOs and experts involved in
‘magnitude’ was defined in strictly quantitative terms monitoring cross-border activities:
to give an indication of how ‘severe’ the shortages or
surpluses were. The decision of ELA to expand the – Focus group 1: Cross-border partnerships
scope of the report meant that additional qualitative – Focus group 2: NCOs
data had to be collected to provide insights into the
– Focus group 3: Employers’ representatives
context in which labour market imbalances emerge,
both through field as well as desk research, the latter Focus group 2 was also directed to trade unions but
in the form of an extensive review of contemporary no representatives confirmed their participation. Two
literature on the subject. The review concentrated trade unions representatives participated in focus
on bringing the discussion up to date with some of group 1 and trade unions’ perspective was taken into
the latest developments and their likely permanence. account by consulting briefs and position papers
For this reason, only documents dated 2018-onwards from the main European-level trade unions.

94
Annex 2: Template for data collection

Column Information sought Explanation Format

Type in free text a list of occupations (one

row one occupation) for which shortages
and surpluses exist; first list occupations for
which there is a shortage; unlike last years
Column 1 Occupation title (text) report there is no number of maximum or free text
minimum occupations; however if your list
does not contain any occupations we will
consider that there are no labour shortages
and surpluses in your labour market

For each occupation indicate if it refers to a

shortage by typing in 'shortage' or surplus
by typing in 'surplus'; to identify labour
shortage or surplus occupations you can
examine for each occupation the ratio of "Shortage,
Shortage/surplus the number of job seekers to the number Surplus
Column 2
indicator of vacancies at the end of each year; or the (drop-down
results of surveys or forecasting models menu)"
etc. Whatever indicator you use, you can
rank the occupation interms of a labour
shortage or surplus and list it as such in
Column 2.

Some NCO's expressed the view that it

would be useful to identify which labour "Skills
Optional: List whether
shortage occupations were specifically shortage,
labour shortage
Column a shortage of the appropriate skills (i.e. Labour
occupation is a skilled
2a qualifications and/or required experience shortage
occupation (drop-down
rather than any of the other factors which (drop-down
menu)
can create labour shortages such as menu)"
unattractive working conditions etc.)

For each occupation indicate what

occupational classification (if any) was used
Occupational
to identify this occupation; for instance, you ISCO, ROME,
Column 3 classification used in
can report a country specific classification, etc., none
your country
ISCO, ROME, SOC, etc. If you don’t use
occupational classifications, type 'None'

Occupation code to If you have indicated a classification used,

the lowest level of type the code for each occupation; use the
Column 4 disaggregation (e.g. lowest level of disaggregation (e.g. 4 digit 9999
ROME, SOC, ISCO at 4 ISCO code); if you don’t use occupational
digits) classification leave blank

95
 Column Information sought Explanation Format

If you use occupational classification which

is not ISCO-08 and if it is possible, provide
a translation of the national code to ISCO-
08 code; ISCO is the International Standard
Classification of Occupations which is used to
report to Eurostat; code should be at 4 digits;
if this is not available than the lowest level
ISCO-08 code at 4-digit
of disaggregation that is available should
Column 5 level (or lower if 4-digit 9999
be reported (3 digits if 4-digit code is not
not available)
available; 2 digits if neither 4-digit nor 3-digit
code is available; 1 digit if neither 4-digit,
3-digit nor 2-digit code is available); if it is not
possible to provide translation to ISCO-08,
leave blank; if you have already reported
ISCO-08 code in column 4, repeat the code -
copy column 4 to column 5

Indicate what criteria was used to conclude

that this occupation is associated with
a shortage/surplus; for instance, ratio
What indicator(s) of registered job seekers to vacancies,
Column 6 suggested that there is employers views, sourcing from abroad to free text
a shortage/surplus? fill vacancies, growth in employment faster
than growth in education/training output,
time required to fill vacancies higher than
average, etc.

For each occupation, indicate a broad

Please indicate the estimate of the magnitude of the labour
magnitude of the labour shortage/surplus; high, medium or low. high or
Column 7 shortage or surplus Please use an objective criterion in making medium or
using an objective this assessment (e.g. ratio of vacancies to low
source or criterion job-seekers; results of surveys, studies you
have read etc.)

Here you should indicate according to

Source or criterion which source or criterion you defined
Column iaccording to which the magnitude of the identified labour
free text
7a labour shortage shortage; if possible elaborate on which
magnitude is identified benchmarks you used in order to define the
shortage/surplus as high medium or low.

Indicate the year that the information on

shortages/surpluses (column 7) refers to
e.g. type '2019' for a survey of difficult to fill
Year for which the vacancies conducted in 2019, even if the
shortage/surplus refers report was published in 2020. However,
Column 8 to (YYYY) and if possible this year we would also like information on YYYY QY
the first or second 6 which part of the eyar the labour shortage
months of that year or surplus refers to (i.e. first or seecodn 6
month period). If you have this information,
place h1 or h2 beside the year - whichever is
appropriate.

96
 Column Information sought Explanation Format

Source of information Indicate the source of information used

on shortages/surplus to assess the imbalance in the labour
(e.g. PES administrative market - shortages and surpluses (e.g. PES
data (vacancies, job administrative data on vacancies and job
Column 9 seekers), PES survey, seekers, PES survey, third party survey, free text
third party survey, National occupational forecasts, etc.); if
National occupational there is more than one source used, indicate
forecasts, other (specify) all sources used. Please provide exact
etc.) reference or weblink of the source used.

The purpose of this question is to gather

information on which shortages or
surpluses you consider are related to the
greeen agenda. For example, you might
In your experience is the
have identified 'electrician' as a shortage Yes; no; don't
Column shortage or surplus in
occupation and you may consider that know (drop-
10 this occupation related
the demand for electricians in your labour down menu)
to the green agenda
market has increased because of the greeen
agenda. You would then answer 'yes' in this
column on the row which has electrician as
a shortgage.

The purpose of this question is to gather

information on which shortages or surpluses
you consider are related to the impact of
In your experience, is new technologies. For example, you may
the shortage or surplus have identified retail sales assistants as Yes; no; don't
Column
in this occupation surplus occupations and you may consider know (drop-
11
related to the impact of that the surplus was created to some extent down menu)
new technologies! by retail staff being displaced by bar code
technologies. You would then answer 'yes' in
this column on the row which has retail sales
assistants as a surplus.

The purpose of this question is to gather

information on which shortages or
surpluses you consider are related to
unattractive working conditions. For
In your experience, is
example you might have identified heavy Yes; no; don't
Column the shortage or surplus
goods vehicle driving as a shortage and know (drop-
12 related to unattractive
you may be of the view that long anti-social down menu)
working conditions.
hours has contributed to shortages in this
profession. In that case, you would answer
'yes' in this columkn in the row that contains
this shortage occupation.

It would be of benefit to the quality of the

report if you inform us of any materials you
Have you knowledge
Column are aware of which are relevant to the issue References,
of or access to relevant
13 of labour shortages and surpluses. Pleae Links
materials
list the references to these materials in
Column 13.

97
Annex 3: Questionnaire for NCOs
2022 EURES REPORT ON LABOUR SHORTAGES AND SURPLUSES
SUPPLEMENTARY QUESTIONNAIRE FOR NATIONAL INFORMATION COLLECTION
For this project, the European Labour Authority will explore different sources to obtain information on the issues which
impact on labour shortages and surpluses. With that in mind, we wish to take this opportunity to inquire if the EURES NCOs,
or other stakeholders they could approach without causing additional workload, have information that you could share
with us on considerations related to regions and vulnerable groups (e.g. young unemployed, persons with disabilities etc.)
and other topics (e.g. the role of working conditions) relevant to the assessment of labour shortages and surpluses.
If you have such information, ELA would be grateful if you share it with us. If the space provided is too limited for your
comments, feel free to use additional space.

Q1: Is there a regional dimension to labour shortages or surpluses in your country and, if so, why?
Please indicate which regions have, respectively, particularly high levels of shortages and surpluses. Examples of issues
that you might want to discuss are: Do you observe shortages on specific occupations in one/some regions while there
are surpluses in the same occupation in other regions? What are the reasons for the observed regional shortages and
surpluses? In relation to surpluses have these arisen, for example, because of recent lay-offs (e.g. because of COVID-19,
disruptions caused by the war in Ukraine, closing of companies due to greening trends etc.) in certain industries
which have had a particular impact on people working in certain occupations or simply the consequence of long-run
economic decline? In relation to shortages, have these arisen because the rapid pace of economic growth in the region,
either generally or due to sectoral specialisation (e.g. related to digitalisation or greening)?. In how far are the arising
shortages/surpluses consequence of demographic and societal change (e.g. contraction of the size of the regional
labour force for age reason, mobility patterns to/from the region due to personal preferences)? Are living conditions
(e.g. availability, quality and prices of housing, availability and quality of services of public interest like care facilities or
education provision) decisive for shortages/surpluses in the region?

Shortages

Surpluses
Q2: Do you have insights or considerations as regards vulnerable groups on the labour market and
shortages/surpluses?
For example, that specific types of vulnerable groups (e.g. people with disabilities, older workers, young workers, those
with low levels of educational attainment, those with caring responsibilities, people with migration background etc.)
are more or less exposed to shortages/surpluses? If so, which group, and is there information on the reasons behind?
How has their labour market situation (e.g. access to employment, quality of employment, working conditions etc.)
improved or worsened because of shortages/surpluses in the occupation/region?
Shortages

Surpluses

Q3: Is there any evidence of cross-border mobility either increasing or decreasing levels of labour
shortages/surpluses for certain occupations/regions?.
For example, does cross-border mobility associated with a certain occupation reduce surpluses in the region of origin
and reduce shortages in the region of destination, or does it increase shortages in the region or origin while reducing
them in the region of destination? Any examples you can provide will be much appreciated.
Annex 4: Cross-border matches

Occupation
Occupation

Accountants Agricultural and Forestry Production

Managers
Shortage: BE; CH; DK; IT; LU; NL; NO; RO; SI
Shortage: NL
Surplus: DK
Surplus: LV
Accounting and Bookkeeping Clerks
Agricultural and Industrial Machinery
Shortage: DK; FR; MT; NO; PL Mechanics and Repairers
Surplus: FI; SE; SI; SK
Shortage: AT; BE; EE; ES; DE; FR; IT; LT; NL; NO; PT; SI
Surplus: DK; HU; RO
Accounting Associate Professionals
Shortage: BE; CH; DK; FR; LU; NL; NO; PL ; SI Agricultural Technicians
Surplus: BG; EE; SK
Surplus: HU; RO

Actors
Air Conditioning and Refrigeration
Shortage: IT
Mechanics
Surplus: AT; DK; EL; RO Shortage: BE; CH; DE; FI; HR; LV; NL; PL; SI
Surplus: HU
Administrative and Executive
Secretaries
Air Traffic Controllers
Shortage: BE; IT; NL; MT
Shortage: CH
Surplus: AT; BE; DK; EE; FI; HR; LT; PT; SE; SI; SK
Air Traffic Safety Electronics Technicians
Advertising and Marketing
Professionals Shortage: RO
Surplus: DK
Shortage: CH; EE; IT; MT; NL; NO
Surplus: AT; DK; FI; PT; SE; SI
Aircraft Engine Mechanics and
Repairers
Advertising and Public Relations
Managers Shortage: CH; IT; LV
Surplus: DK
Shortage: IT
Surplus: DK; HU; RO
Aircraft Pilots and Related Associate
Professionals
Aged Care Service Managers
Shortage: CH; HU
Surplus: DK
Surplus: DK; HU

100
Occupation

Ambulance Workers Armed Forces Occupations; Other Ranks

Shortage: FR; NO; PL Shortage: BE; CH; SI
Surplus: BE
Assemblers Not Elsewhere Classified
Animal Producers Not Elsewhere Shortage: CH; EE; NL; NO; SK
Classified
Surplus: BG; SK
Shortage: NO
Surplus: DK; LV Athletes and Sports Players
Shortage: IT
Announcers on Radio; Television and
Other Media
Audiologists and Speech Therapists
Shortage: AT; BE; EE; ES; DE; FR; IT; LT; NO; PT; SI
Shortage: BE; EE; DE; FI; IT; NL; SI
Surplus: DK; HU; RO

Authors and Related Writers

Aircraft Pilots and Related Associate
Professionals Shortage: CH; IT
Shortage: IT Surplus: DK; FR; LT

Apiarists and Sericulturists Bakers; Pastry-cooks and Confectionery

Makers
Surplus: HU; RO
Shortage: BE; DK; EE; FR; HR; IT; LT; NL; NO; PL; SI; SK
Applications Programmers Surplus: HU

Shortage: AT; BE; BG; CH; CY; EE; FI; FR; HR; IE; LV; NL;
Bank Tellers and Related Clerks
NO; RO; SI
Shortage: CH; LU
Aquaculture and Fisheries Production Surplus: AT; FI; SE
Managers
Surplus: DK; RO Bartenders
Shortage: BE; DK; HU; NL; NO; PT
Aquaculture Workers
Surplus: DK; HU; LV; SE
Shortage: CH
Surplus: DK Beauticians and Related Workers
Shortage: AT; BE; EE; ES; DE; FR; IT; LT; NO; PT; SI
Archivists and Curators
Surplus: BE; DK; FI; HU; LT; SK
Shortage: CH; IT
Surplus: DK; ES Bicycle and Related Repairers
Shortage: BE; HU; IT; NL
Surplus: DK; HU

101
Occupation

Biologists; Botanists; Zoologists and Building Architects

Related
Shortage: CH; DK
Shortage: CH; IE; IT
Surplus: SI
Surplus: DK; RO
Building Caretakers
Blacksmiths; Hammersmiths and
Forging Press Workers Shortage: BE; DK; FI
Surplus: AT; DK; FR; SE; SK
Shortage: IT
Surplus: HU
Building Construction Labourers

Bleaching; Dyeing and Fabric Cleaning Shortage: BE; CH; CZ; DK; FI; HR; HU; IT; LV; MT; NL;
Machine Operators PL; PT; SI; SK
Surplus: DK; EL; DE; LT; NO; SE; SK
Shortage: BE; IT

Building finishers and related trades

Bookmakers; Croupiers and Related workers not elsewhere classified
Gaming Workers
Shortage: SI
Shortage: RO; SK
Surplus: DE; HU
Building Frame and Related Trades
Workers Not Elsewhere Classified
Bricklayers and Related Workers
Shortage: BE; EE; FI; FR;I T; LT; NL; NO; PL; SE
Shortage: BE; CH; CZ; DK; EE; FI; FR; HR; HU; IT; LT; LV;
Surplus: DK; HU; SK
NL; NO; PL ; PT; SE; SI; SK
Surplus: DK; HU; RO
Building Structure Cleaners

Broadcasting and Audio-visual Shortage: BE; LV; PL; RO

Technicians
Bus and Tram Drivers
Shortage: AT; CH
Surplus: DK; FI; LV; SI Shortage: BE; BG; CH; DK; EE; FR; IT; LT; NO; PL; RO;
SE; SI; SK
Builders; Traditional Materials Surplus: EL

Shortage: SK
Business Services Agents Not Elsewhere
Classified
Building and Related Electricians
Shortage: RO
Shortage: BE; CH; CZ; DK; EE; EL; DE; FI; FR; HR; LT; LV;
Surplus: LT; SE
NL; NO; PL; PT; SI; SK
Surplus: HU

102
Occupation

Business Services and Administration Cement; Stone and Other Mineral

Managers Not Elsewhere Classified Products Machine Operators
Shortage: DK; FR; NO Shortage: BE; CH; EE; DE; LV; PT
Surplus: BE; DK
Chefs
Butchers; Fishmongers and Related Shortage: BE; DK; EE; FI; FR; HR; IE; IT; MT; SI
Food Preparers
Surplus: DK
Shortage: BE; CH; EE; FR; HR; HU; IT; LT; NL; NO; SE; SI
Surplus: HU Chemical and Physical Science
Technicians
Buyers Shortage: BE; CH; DK; IE; IT; NL
Shortage: CH; DK; NL; NO; RO Surplus: HR
Surplus: HU; SE
Chemical Engineering Technicians
Cabinet-makers and Related Workers Shortage: CH
Shortage: BE; CH; DK; EE; FR; HU; LT; NO; PL; SI
Chemical Engineers
Surplus: FI; HU
Shortage: CH; IT; NL; SI
Car; Taxi and Van Drivers Surplus: SE
Shortage: BE; DK; MT; NO
Chemical Processing Plant Controllers
Surplus: AT; BE; DK; DE; HU; LT; PT; SK
Shortage: HU; IT; NL
Carpenters and Joiners
Chemical products plant and machine
Shortage:
operators
AT; BE; CH; DK; EE; FI; FR; HR; HU; IT; LT; NL; NO; PL; PT;
RO; SE; SI Shortage: BE; CH; ES; IT; NL; SI
Surplus: HU
Chemists
Cartographers and Surveyors Shortage: CH
Shortage: BE; FR; NL Surplus: SE
Surplus: DK
Child Care Service Managers
Cashiers and Ticket Clerks Shortage: BE; CH; NO
Shortage: DK; EE; IT
Child Care Workers
Surplus: AT; BE; BG; FR; LU
Shortage: BE; CH; DK; EE; FI; NL; NO
Surplus: BE; DK; ES; HU; LT; LU

103
Occupation

Civil Engineering Labourers Commercial Sales Representatives

Shortage: BE; CH; DK; EE; FI; HR; IT; NL; PL; SI Shortage: BE; FI; FR; NO
Surplus: AT; BG; LT; RO Surplus: AT; PT; SK

Civil Engineering Technicians Commissioned Armed Forces Officers

Shortage: AT; BE; CH; DK; EE; DE; FR; NL; NO; SI Shortage: NL

Civil Engineers Community Health Workers

Shortage: BE; CH; DK; EE; DE; FI; IT; NL; NO; RO; SI Surplus: RO

Cleaners and Helpers in Offices; Hotels Companions and Valets

and Other Establishments
Shortage: BG; DK
Shortage: BE; CH; CY; DK; EE; EL; FI; IT; NL; NO; SI
Surplus: ES; LV
Surplus: AT; DK; DE; HU; LU; NO
Computer Network and Systems
Cleaning and Housekeeping Technicians
Supervisors in Offices; Hotels and
Other Establishments Shortage: AT; BE; IE; IT; NL; NO; SI
Surplus: BE; DK
Shortage: CH; DK; NL
Surplus: HU
Computer Network Professionals

Cleaning Workers Shortage: AT; BE; CY; LV; NL

Surplus: SK
Computing Professionals Not Elsewhere
Classified
Clearing and Forwarding Agents
Shortage: SK
Shortage: BE; CH; NL
Concrete Placers; Concrete Finishers
Clerical Support Workers Not Elsewhere and Related Workers
Classified
Shortage: AT; BE; CH; EE; FI; FR; HR; HU; IT; LT; LV; NL; NO;
Surplus: AT; DE; LV; SK PL; RO; SI; SK
Surplus: HU
Coding; Proofreading and Related
Clerks Conference and Event Planners
Shortage: CH
Surplus: DK; HU; LU
Surplus: DK
Construction Managers
Shortage: BE; DK; FR; IT; LT; NL; NO; RO

104
Occupation

Construction Supervisors Crop Farm Labourers

Shortage: BE; CH; DK; EE; DE; FI; FR; IT; NL; SI Shortage: ES; LV; NO; PT
Surplus: LV Surplus: BG

Contact Centre Information Clerks Customs and Border Inspectors

Shortage: BE; DK; HU; IT; MT; NL; NO; PT; SI Shortage: CH
Surplus: SE Surplus: LV

Contact Centre Salespersons Dairy Products Makers

Shortage: CH; DK; FI; FR; HU; IT; NL; NO; SI Shortage: CH; IT
Surplus: HU; LV Surplus: HU; LV

Cooks Dancers and Choreographers

Shortage: BE; BG; CH; DK; EE; FI; FR; IT; LT; NL; NO; Shortage: IT
PL; PT; SI; SK
Surplus: DK; LT
Surplus: DK; HU; NL
Data Entry Clerks
Counselling and Organisation of
Educational Work Professional Shortage: IT
Surplus: EE; DE; HU; LT
Shortage: SI

Database and Network Professionals

Craft and Related Workers not Not Elsewhere Classified
Elsewhere Classified
Shortage: AT; LV; NL; NO; RO
Shortage: NO
Surplus: LV
Database Designers and Administrators

Crane; Hoist and Related Plant Shortage: AT; BE; NL; NO; RO
Operators
Debt Collectors and Related Workers
Shortage: BE; CH; EE; HR; IT; NL; SI
Shortage: RO
Creative and Performing Artists Not Surplus: DK; LV
Elsewhere Classified
Shortage: CH; IT Dental Assistants and Therapists
Surplus: DE Shortage: CH; DK; FI; NL; SE; SI
Surplus: LV
Credit and Loans Officers
Shortage: BE; LU; NL; RO Dentists
Surplus: DK; LV Shortage: CH; DK; ES; FI; IT; NL; SE; SI

105
Occupation

Dieticians and Nutritionists Economists

Shortage: IT Shortage: CH; DK; IT; LU; NL
Surplus: DK Surplus: HR

Dispensing Opticians Education Managers

Shortage: AT; BE; CH; DE; FR; NL Shortage: BE

Domestic Cleaners and Helpers Education Methods Specialists

Shortage: BE; CY; FI; FR; IT; NL Shortage: BE; CH; IT; NL; NO
Surplus: DE; HU; LU Surplus: DK

Door-to-door Salespersons Electrical and Electronic Equipment

Assemblers
Shortage: CH; EL; IT; NO; RO
Shortage: BE; CH; EE; FR; NL; NO; RO; SI
Draughtspersons Surplus: BG; SK

Shortage: BE; CH; FR; NL

Electrical Engineering Technicians
Surplus: DK
Shortage: AT; BE; CH; DK; EE; DE; FR; IE; LT; NL; NO; SI
Drivers of Animal-drawn Vehicles and Surplus: HU
Machinery
Shortage: IT
Electrical Engineers
Surplus: HU Shortage: CH; FI; IE; LT; NL; NO; SI

Driving Instructors Electrical Line Installers and Repairers

Shortage: BE; CH; SI Shortage: BE; CH; CY; CZ; HR; IT; LV; NL; NO
Surplus: DK; HU Surplus: BG

Early Childhood Educators Electrical Mechanics and Fitters

Shortage: BE; BG; CH; DK; EE; DE; FI; Shortage: BE; CH; CZ; EE; DE; FI; FR; HR; IT;
IT; LT; LU; NO; SE; SI LT; NL; NO; PT; SE; SI
Surplus: CY; SK Surplus: DK; SE

Earthmoving and Related Plant Electrical-equipment Assemblers

Operators
Shortage: SK
Shortage: BE; CH; DK; EE; FI; FR; HR; IT; LT; NL; NO;
PL; PT; SI
Electronics Engineering Technicians
Surplus: DK; HU
Shortage: BE; CH; ES; NL; NO

106
Occupation

Electronics Engineers Express deliveries

Shortage: CH; NL; NO; SI Surplus: LU

Electronics Mechanics and Servicers Farming; Forestry and Fisheries

Advisers
Shortage: BE; CH; FR; IT; NO; SI
Shortage: CH; IE
Surplus: BG; DK

Elementary Workers Not Elsewhere Farming; Forestry and Fisheries

Classified Advisers
Surplus: RO
Shortage: HU; IT; NO
Surplus: AT; BE; CY; DE; HU; SE; SI; SK
Fashion and Other Models
Employment agents and contractors Shortage: CH; IT
Surplus: HU
Shortage: NL
Surplus: DK
Fast Food Preparers
Engineering Professionals Not Shortage: BE; FI; HU; NL; RO; SI
Elsewhere Classified Surplus: BE; HU
Shortage: BE; CH; DK; FR; IE; IT; NO; SI
Fibre Preparing; Spinning and Winding
Surplus: DK; HU
Machine Operators
Environmental and Occupational Health Shortage: BE; HU; IT
and Hygiene Professionals Surplus: HU; RO
Shortage: IT; NL; SE
Field Crop and Vegetable Growers
Surplus: DK
Shortage: CH; LV; NO
Shortage Environmental and Surplus: HU; RO
Occupational Health Inspectors
and Associates
Film; Stage and Related Directors and
Shortage: NL Producers
Shortage: CH; IT
Environmental Engineers
Surplus: DK; FI
Shortage: CH; DK; IT
Finance Managers
Environmental Protection Professionals
Shortage: LU; PL
Shortage: CH; DK; IE; NL
Surplus: LV
Surplus: DK; RO

107
Occupation

Financial Analysts Food Service Counter Attendants

Shortage: BE; IT; LU Shortage: BE; CH; DK; EE; IT; NL; NO; RO
Surplus: SE Surplus: AT; LV; PT

Financial and Insurance Services

Branch managers Forestry and Related Workers
Shortage: EE; FR; NO; SI
Shortage: FR
Surplus: HU; SE

Financial and Investment Advisers

Forestry Labourers
Shortage: BE; IT; NO
Surplus: HU; LV; SK
Surplus: CY
Forestry Technicians
Fire Fighters
Shortage: CH
Shortage: CH; NL; NO; SI
Surplus: DK; HU; RO

Fishery and aquaculture labourers

Freight Handlers
Shortage: ES; LV
Shortage: BE; DK; EE; IT; NL; SK
Surplus: AT; HU; LT; SK
Fitness and Recreation Instructors
and Programme Leaders
Fruit; Vegetable and Related Preservers
Shortage: CH; IT; NO
Shortage: BG; HU; IT
Surplus: BE; DK; HU; LV
Surplus: HU
Floor Layers and Tile Setters
Fumigators and Other Pest and
Shortage: AT; BE; CH; EE; FI; HR; HU; LT; LV; NL; NO; Weed Controllers
PL; PT; RO; SE; SI
Shortage: NL
Surplus: HU

Food and Beverage Tasters and Graders Fur and Leather Preparing
Machine Operators
Shortage: IT
Shortage: IT
Surplus: DK
Surplus: HU

Food and Related Products

Machine Operators Gallery; Museum and
Library Technicians
Shortage: BE; CH; DK; EE; FR; IT; LT; NL; NO; SK
Shortage: CH; IT
Surplus: BE; DK; HU; NO
Surplus: ES; FR; LV

108
Occupation

Garbage and Recycling Collectors Glaziers

Shortage: CH; CY; IT; NL Shortage: BE; CH; NL
Surplus: DK; LU Surplus: HU

Garden and Horticultural Labourers Government Regulatory Associate

Professionals Not Elsewhere Classified
Shortage: BE; EE; PT; SK
Surplus: SE
Surplus: DK; DE

Gardeners; Horticultural and Nursery Government Social Benefits Officials

Growers Shortage: NL
Shortage: BE; CH; NL; NO
Government Tax and Excise Officials
Surplus: DK; HU; LU; LV; RO
Shortage: BE
Garment and Related Patternmakers
and Cutters Graphic and Multimedia Designers
Shortage: CH
Shortage: CH; NL
Surplus: HU
Surplus: AT; BE; DK; ES; FI; FR; HU; LT; LU; PT; SE; SI; SK

General Office Clerks Hairdressers

Shortage: CH; DK; HR; IT; MT; NO
Shortage: BE; DK; FR; HU; IT; NO
Surplus: AT; BE; CY; CZ; FR; HR; HU; LU; NO; PT; SK
Surplus: HU; LT; SK

Generalist Medical Practitioners Hand and Pedal Vehicle Drivers

Shortage: AT; BE; CZ; EE; ES; FI; IE; IT; LT; NL; NO;
Shortage: IT
PL; SI; SK

Hand Launderers and Pressers

Geologists and geophysicists
Shortage: IT; LT
Shortage: CH
Surplus: DK Hand Packers

Glass and Ceramics Plant Operators Shortage: HU; IT

Surplus: AT; BE; BG; HU; SE
Shortage: CY; HU; LV
Surplus: DK Handicraft Workers in Textile; Leather
and Related Materials
Glass Makers; Cutters; Grinders
and Finishers Shortage: CH; HU
Surplus: DK; HU; RO
Shortage: CH; SI
Surplus: DK; HU

109
Occupation

Handicraft Workers in Wood; Basketry Hotel Receptionists

and Related Materials
Shortage: DK; NL; NO
Shortage: CH; PL
Surplus: BG; DK; HR; LV; SE
Surplus: RO
House Builders
Handicraft Workers Not
Elsewhere Classified Shortage: EE; FI; IT; LT; PL
Surplus: RO
Shortage: CH

Human Resource Managers

Health Associate Professionals Not
Elsewhere Classified Shortage: FR
Shortage: NO
Hunters and Trappers
Surplus: ES; LT; LV
Shortage: ES
Health Care Assistants Surplus: DK; HU
Shortage: BE; CH; EE; ES; FI; FR; IE; IT; LU; NL; NO; SI
Incinerator and Water Treatment
Surplus: AT; BG
Plant Operators

Health Professionals Not Elsewhere Shortage: DE; IT

Classified Surplus: LV
Shortage: BE; CH; DK; DE; IT; NL; SE; SI
Industrial and Production Engineers
Health Service Managers Shortage: BE; CH; DK; EE; FR; IE; IT; NL; NO
Shortage: DE; NO; RO
Information and Communication
Technology Installers and Servicers
Heavy Truck and Lorry Drivers
Shortage: BE; NL; CH; IT; NL
Shortage: BE; CH; DK; EE; DE; FI; FR; HR; IT;
LT; LV; NL; NO; PL ; PT; RO; SI; SK Surplus: FI; HU; RO; SI
Surplus: EL; HU
Information and Communications
Technology Operations Technicians
Home-based Personal Care Workers
Shortage: AT; BE; ES; FR; IE; IT; NO
Shortage: BE; CH; CY; EE; FI; IT; PT; SI
Surplus: LV
Surplus: RO; SK

Information and Communications

Hotel Managers Technology Sales Professionals
Shortage: BE; CH; IT
Shortage: IT
Surplus: DK; HU

110
Occupation

Information and Communications Journalists

Technology Service Managers
Shortage: CH; IT; NO
Shortage: BE; EE; LU
Surplus: AT; DK; EE; FI; FR; LV; SE; SI

Information and Communications Judges

Technology User Support Technicians
Shortage: CH; IT
Shortage: AT; IE; IT; NL; RO
Surplus: FI
Kitchen Helpers

Information Technology Trainers Shortage: BE; CY; DK; EE; FI; NL; NO; PT; RO; SI
Surplus: AT; BE; DK; DE; LU; SE; SK
Shortage: CH; DK; IT; NL

Landscape Architects
Inland and Coastal Waters
Fishery Workers Shortage: BE
Shortage: CH; ES; PT Surplus: DK; ES
Surplus: DK
Laundry Machine Operators
Inquiry Clerks Shortage: BE; CH; EE; IT
Shortage: LV; NL; RO Surplus: DK; LV
Surplus: LU
Lawyers
Insulation Workers Shortage: CH; IT; LU; NO
Shortage: CH; FI; HR; HU; LT; NL; NO; RO; SI; SK
Legal and Related Associate
Surplus: HU
Professionals

Insurance Representatives Shortage: CH; DK; IT; PL

Surplus: LT; LV
Shortage: BE; CH; FR; NL; SI
Surplus: LV
Legal Professionals Not
Elsewhere Classified
Interior Designers and Decorators
Shortage: BE; CH; DK; IT; NL; SI
Shortage: CH; DK; IT
Surplus: DK; ES; FI; HU; LT; LU; RO; SI Legal Secretaries
Shortage: DK; IT
Jewellery and Precious Metal Workers
Surplus: HR; HU
Shortage: CH
Surplus: DK; ES; HU

111
Occupation

Librarians and Related Information Management and Organisation Analysts

Professionals
Shortage: EE; ES; IT; NL
Shortage: CH; IT
Surplus: DK; PT
Surplus: FI
Managing Directors and Chief
Library Clerks Executives
Surplus: DK; ES; FI; RO; SE Shortage: CH; IT; MT
Surplus: BE; NO
Life Science Technicians (excluding
Medical) Manufacturing Labourers Not
Shortage: NL
Elsewhere Classified
Surplus: RO Shortage: CH; DK; IT; MT; NO; SI
Surplus: CZ; PT; SK
Lifting Truck Operators
Shortage: CZ; HR; IT; NL; PL ; RO; SK
Manufacturing Managers
Surplus: BE; DK; HU; LU Shortage: BE; CH; EE; FR; IT; NO; SI

Livestock and Dairy Producers Manufacturing Supervisors

Shortage: CH; EE; NO; SI Shortage: BE; CH; DK; EE; FR; IT; NL
Surplus: RO Surplus: DK

Livestock Farm Labourers Mathematicians; Actuaries and

Statisticians
Shortage: EE
Shortage: CH; EE
Surplus: DK; DE
Surplus: BE; DK; EL; RO
Locomotive Engine Drivers
Mechanical Engineering Technicians
Shortage: CH; DE; NL
Shortage: AT; BE; CH; DK; EE; FR; LT; NO; SI
Surplus: LV
Surplus: HU; RO
Lower secondary education subject
teacher Mechanical Engineers
Shortage: SI Shortage: AT; CH; DK; IE; IT; LV; NL; NO; SE; SI

Mail Carriers and Sorting Clerks Mechanical Machinery Assemblers

Shortage: BE; EE; NO; SI Shortage: BE; CH; FI; FR; HU; NL; NO; RO; SK
Surplus: DK; SE Surplus: HU; SK

112
Occupation

Medical and Dental Prosthetic Metal Polishers; Wheel Grinders

Technicians and Tool Sharpeners
Shortage: BE; CH; DE; HU Shortage: EE; IT; PL ; SI
Surplus: DK; HU; LV
Metal Processing Plant Operators
Medical and Pathology Shortage: CH; DK; FR; HU; IT; SI
Laboratory Technicians
Surplus: HU
Shortage: BE; CH; FI; NL; NO
Metal Production Process Controllers
Medical Assistants
Shortage: BE; ES; HU; IT
Shortage: CH; NL; NO; SE
Surplus: HU
Surplus: SE
Metal Working Machine Tool Setters
Medical Imaging and Therapeutic and Operators
Equipment Technicians
Shortage: AT; BE; BG; CH; DK; EE; FI; FR;
Shortage: BE; CH; DK; DE; FI; LV; NL
HR; IE; IT; LT; NL; NO; PL ; RO; SI; SK
Surplus: HU
Medical records and health information
technicians
Meteorologists
Surplus: ES
Surplus: DK
Medical Secretaries
Meter Readers and
Shortage: DK; IT; SE Vending-machine Collectors
Surplus: HR; LU
Shortage: IT

Messengers; Package Deliverers Midwifery Professionals

and Luggage Porters
Shortage: CH; DK; HR; NO; PL ; PT; SE
Shortage: BE; ES; HU; IT; MT; RO; SI
Surplus: HU; SE
Miners and Quarriers

Metal Finishing; Plating and Coating Shortage: CH

Machine Operators
Miners and Quarriers
Shortage: CH; DE; IT; LV; NO; SI
Surplus: BG Surplus: RO

Metal Moulders and Coremakers Mining and metallurgical technicians

Shortage: CH; IT; SI Shortage: CH

Surplus: DK; HU

113
Occupation

Mining and Metallurgical Technicians Musical Instrument Makers and Tuners

Shortage: DK; NO Shortage: CH
Surplus: RO Surplus: DK

Mining and Quarrying Labourers Musicians; Singers and Composers

Shortage: CH; HU Shortage: CH; DK; IT
Surplus: SE Surplus: EL; FI; LV; SE; SI

Mining Engineers; Metallurgists Non-commissioned Armed

and Related Professionals Forces Officers
Shortage: CH; IT; LV; NO Shortage: NL

Mining Managers Nursing and Midwifery Professionals

Shortage: IT Shortage: CZ

Mining Supervisors Nursing Associate Professionals

Shortage: IT Shortage: BE; CH; EE; DE; FI; FR; LU; NL; SI

Mixed Crop and Animal Producers Nursing Professionals

Shortage: CH; NL; NO Shortage: BE; BG; CH; CY; CZ; DK; EE; ES;
FI; HR; IE; IT; LT; NL; NO; PT; SE; SI
Surplus: BE; HU; SE

Mixed Crop and Livestock Farm Odd Job Persons

Labourers Shortage: EE; IT
Shortage: DK; ES Surplus: LT; LV
Surplus: RO
Office Supervisors
Mobile Farm and Forestry Shortage: IT; MT; NL
Plant Operators
Surplus: HR; LT; LV
Shortage: EE; ES; FR; HR; IT; NL; SE
Optometrists and Ophthalmic Opticians
Motor Vehicle Mechanics and Repairers
Shortage: IT
Shortage: AT; BE; CH; EE; FI; FR; HR; IT; NL; NO;
PL; PT; SE; SI
Other Artistic and Cultural Associate
Surplus: HU; SK Professionals
Shortage: IT
Motorcycle Drivers
Surplus: DK; FI; FR
Shortage: IT; NL; RO

114
Occupation

Other Arts Teachers Paramedical Practitioners

Shortage: CH; IT Shortage: LV; NL
Surplus: DK
Payroll Clerks
Other Cleaning Workers Shortage: AT; DK; NL; PL
Shortage: BE; IT; NL Surplus: SE
Surplus: SE
Pelt Dressers; Tanners and Fellmongers
Other Language Teachers Shortage: CH
Shortage: CH; EE; IT Surplus: DK; HU
Surplus: DK; EL; DE; HU
Personal Care Workers in Health
Other Music Teachers Services Not Elsewhere Classified
Shortage: CH; NL; NO
Shortage: CH; DK; IT
Surplus: BE; LV; NO; RO
Surplus: DK; FR

Other Teaching Professionals Not Personal Services Workers Not

Elsewhere Classified Elsewhere Classified
Shortage: DK; NO
Surplus: SK
Surplus: SE
Packing; Bottling and Labelling
Machine Operators Personnel and Careers Professionals
Shortage: BE; DK; LT Shortage: CH; EE; IT; LU; NL; RO; SI
Surplus: HU Surplus: BE; DK; ES; PT

Painters and Related Workers Personnel Clerks

Shortage: BE; DK; EE; FI; FR; HR; LV; NL; NO; PL; RO; SE; SI Shortage: BE; DK
Surplus: ES; HU Surplus: BE

Paper Products Machine Operators Pet Groomers and Animal Care Workers
Shortage: LV Shortage: CH; HU
Surplus: DK; NL
Paper Products Machine Operators
Shortage: ES; RO
Petroleum and Natural Gas Refining
Plant Operators
Shortage: IT
Surplus: RO

115
Occupation

Pharmaceutical Technicians and Plasterers

Assistants
Shortage: BE; CH; FI; HR; HU; LT; LV; NL; RO; SI; SK
Shortage: BE; FI; FR; NL
Surplus: DK; HU

Pharmacists Plastic Products Machine Operators

Shortage: BE; CH; ES; DE; IT; NL; SI
Shortage: BE; CH; DK; IT; LT; NO; RO; SI; SK
Surplus: BG
Philosophers; Historians and
Political Scientists
Plumbers and Pipe Fitters
Shortage: CH; IT
Shortage: BE; CH; CZ; DK; EE; EL; DE; FI; FR; HR;
Surplus: DK; HU; LT; RO; SI
HU; LT; NL; NO; PL ; SE; SI; SK
Surplus: HU
Photographers
Shortage: CH; IT Police Officers
Surplus: ES; DE; HR; HU; LT; SE; SI
Shortage: BE; CH; SE; SI

Photographic Products Policy Administration Professionals

Machine Operators
Shortage: BE; DE; IT; NL; NO; SI
Shortage: CH
Surplus: DK; ES
Surplus: DK; ES; HU

Policy and Planning Managers

Physical and Engineering Science
Technicians Not Elsewhere Classified Shortage: LU
Shortage: BE; CH; FR; NL; NO
Potters and Related Workers
Surplus: DK; HU; RO
Shortage: CH; HU
Physicists and Astronomers Surplus: DK; HU
Shortage: CH; LU
Poultry Producers
Surplus: DK
Shortage: CH
Physiotherapists Surplus: HU
Shortage: BE; CH; CY; ES; DE; FR; IT; NL; PL; SE; SI
Power Production Plant Operators
Physiotherapy Technicians and Shortage: BE; CH; FR; IT
Assistants
Shortage: CH; CY; EE; HU; PL
Surplus: DK

116
Occupation

Precision-instrument Makers and Product and Garment Designers

Repairers
Shortage: CH; NL
Shortage: BE; CH; NL
Surplus: DK; ES; FI; HR; HU; LT; LV
Surplus: DK
Product Graders and Testers
Pre-press Technicians (except Foods and Beverages)
Shortage: CH; NL Shortage: BE; CH; NL
Surplus: FI; RO
Product Graders and Testers
Primary Education Teaching (excluding Foods and Beverages)
Professionals Shortage: RO
Surplus: SK
Production Clerks
Primary School Teachers Shortage: BE; DK; NL; NO
Shortage: BE; BG; CH; DK; EE; IT; NL; NO; SE; SI
Professional Services Managers
Surplus: AT; CY; RO
Not Elsewhere Classified
Print Finishing and Binding Workers Shortage: IT; NL; NO
Surplus: DK
Shortage: BE; FR

Printers Protective Services Workers Not

Elsewhere Classified
Shortage: BE; CH; FR
Shortage: CH; DK; NL; NO; RO
Surplus: DK; FI; SE
Psychologists
Prison Guards
Shortage: CH; DK; EE; FI; IT; LV; NL; NO; PL ; SE; SI
Shortage: EE; LV
Surplus: DK; PT

Private passenger road transport

Public Relations Professionals
Surplus: LU
Shortage: CH; DK; IT
Surplus: BE; DK; FR; LU; SE
Process Control Technicians Not
Elsewhere Classified
Pulp and Papermaking Plant Operators
Shortage: BE; IT; RO
Shortage: BE; CY; FR; HU; IT
Surplus: HU

117
Occupation

Railway Brake; Signal and Switch Retail and Wholesale Trade Managers
Operators
Shortage: BE; DK; IT
Shortage: CH; DE; NL
Surplus: DK; LU; LV
Surplus: DK; LV
Riggers and Cable Splicers
Real Estate Agents and
Property Managers Shortage: BE; CH; HU; IT
Surplus: RO
Shortage: BE; CH; DK; FR; NL
Surplus: HU; LU; SE
Roofers

Receptionists (general) Shortage: AT; BE; CH; FI; FR; HR; HU; NL; NO; PL; SI
Surplus: HU
Shortage: CH
Surplus: BE; DK; ES; DE; HU; SE; SI
Rubber Products Machine Operators

Refuse Sorters Shortage: CH; PT; SI

Surplus: DK
Shortage: CH; EE; ES; IT

Sales and Marketing Managers

Religious Associate Professionals
Shortage: BE; IT; LU
Shortage: CH; IT
Surplus: DK; EE
Surplus: DK; HU; RO

Sales Demonstrators
Religious Professionals
Shortage: CH; IT
Shortage: CH
Surplus: SE
Religious Professionals
Sales Workers Not Elsewhere Classified
Shortage: IT
Shortage: CH; IT; NO
Surplus: RO
Surplus: SE
Research and Development Managers
Secondary Education Teachers
Shortage: EE; IT; LU; NL
Shortage: BE; BG; CH; DK; EE; IT; NL; NO; SI
Restaurant Managers Surplus: AT; DK; EL; RO

Shortage: CH; IT; NL

Secretaries (general)
Surplus: AT; DK; HU; LV
Shortage: IT
Surplus: BE; CY; DK; EL; FI; LT; LU; LV; SE; SI

118
Occupation

Securities and Finance Dealers and Ships’ Deck Crews and Related Workers
Brokers
Shortage: CH; CY; IT; NO
Shortage: LU; RO
Ships’ Deck Officers and Pilots
Security Guards
Shortage: BE; CH; NO
Shortage: BE; CH; EE; IT; MT; NL; NO; SI
Surplus: LV
Surplus: AT; DK; HU; LU; SK
Ships’ Engineers
Senior Government Officials
Shortage: EE; NL
Shortage: CH; EL
Surplus: DK; HU
Surplus: DK; LV
Shoemakers and Related Workers
Senior Officials of Special-interest
Organisations Shortage: CH; PT
Surplus: DK; HU
Shortage: CH

Shoemaking and Related Machine

Service Station Attendants Operators
Shortage: CH; EE; IT; NL
Shortage: IT; PT
Surplus: BE
Surplus: HU

Sewing Machine Operators Shop Sales Assistants

Shortage: BE; BG; EE; FR; HU; IT; PT
Shortage: BE; CH; DK; EE; HU; IT; MT; NL; NO
Surplus: ES; DE; HU
Surplus: AT; BE; CY; CZ; DK; HU; LU; PT; SE; SK

Sewing; Embroidery and Related Shop Supervisors

Workers
Shortage: BE; IT; NL; NO
Shortage: CH
Surplus: FR; LV
Surplus: HU; LU; RO

Shopkeepers
Sheet Metal Workers
Shortage: IT; NL
Shortage: AT; BE; CH; DK; EE; DE; FI; FR; HR; HU; IT;
LV; NL; PL; SE; SI Surplus: HU
Surplus: HU
Short haul driving and delivery
Shelf Fillers Surplus: LU
Shortage: DK; EE; HU; IT; NL
Shotfirers and Blasters
Surplus: BE; ES; DE; HU; LU
Surplus: HU

119
Occupation

Sign Writers; Decorative Painters; Sports Coaches; Instructors and Officials

Engravers and Etchers
Shortage: BE; CH; IT
Shortage: CH; HU
Surplus: DK; HU; LT; LV
Surplus: DK; HU
Sports; Recreation and Cultural
Social Welfare Managers Centre Managers
Surplus: DK Shortage: IT
Surplus: DK
Social Work and Counselling
Professionals Spray Painters and Varnishers
Shortage: BE; CH; DK; EE; FI; IT; SI
Shortage: AT; BE; DK; EE; FR; HR; LV; NL; NO; SI
Surplus: AT; BE; DK; NL; PT
Surplus: HU

Social Work Associate Professionals Stall and Market Salespersons

Shortage: BE; CH; EE; DE; FI; IT; NL
Shortage: HU; IT
Surplus: AT; FR; NL; RO
Surplus: HU; LT; LV

Sociologists; Anthropologists and Stationary Machine Operators

Related Professionals Not Elsewhere Classified
Shortage: CH; IT; NO
Surplus: SK
Surplus: DK; EL; FI; LT; RO; SI
Stationary Plant and Machine Operators
Software and Applications Developers Not Elsewhere Classified
and Analysts Not Elsewhere Classified
Shortage: CY; EE; FR; NO; RO; SK
Shortage: AT; CH; CY; DK; EE; FI; FR; HR; IE; LU;
Surplus: DK
NL; NO; PT; SI
Statistical; Finance and Insurance Clerks
Software Developers
Shortage: BE; DK
Shortage: AT; CH; CY; CZ; DK; EE; FI; HR; IE; MT; NO;
Surplus: DK
PT; RO; SE; SI
Surplus: DK Statistical; Mathematical and Related
Associate Professionals
Special Needs Teachers Shortage: NL
Shortage: BE; CH; FI; IT; LT; NL; NO; SI Surplus: LV

Specialist Medical Practitioners

Shortage: BG; CH; CZ; EE; ES; FI; HR;
IE; IT; LT; LV; NL; NO; SE; SI

120
Occupation

Steam Engine and Boiler Operators Sweepers and Related Labourers

Surplus: LV Shortage: CH; DK; IT
Surplus: DK; PT; SK
Stock Clerks
Shortage: BG; DK; NL; NO; PL; PT; SI; SK
Systems Administrators
Surplus: BE; DK; NO; PT; SK Shortage: AT; BE; EE; HR; LU; NL; NO

Stonemasons; Stone Cutters; Splitters Systems Analysts

and Carvers
Shortage: AT; BE; CH; CY; EE; HR; IE; LV; NL; NO; PT; SE
Shortage: BE; CH; FR; HR; HU; IT; LV
Surplus: DK
Surplus: HU
Tailors; Dressmakers; Furriers and
Street and Related Service Workers Hatters
Shortage: NL Shortage: BG; CH; FR; LT
Surplus: DK Surplus: DK; ES; DE; FI; HU; SK

Street Food Salespersons Teachers’ Aides

Shortage: HU; IT Shortage: CH; DK
Surplus: SE
Street vendors (excluding food)
Surplus: LT
Teachers and assistants of
vocational subjects
Structural Metal Preparers and Erectors Shortage: SI

Shortage: BE; CH; EE; DE; FR; HR; IT; LT; LV; NL;
NO; PT; SI
Teachers’ Aides
Surplus: HU Shortage: RO

Supply; Distribution and Related Teaching Professionals Not

Managers Elsewhere Classified
Shortage: BE; FR; IT; NL Shortage: BE; CH; FI; IT; NO; PL
Surplus: DK Surplus: BE; DK

Survey and Market Research Technical and Medical Sales

Interviewers Professionals (excluding ICT)
Shortage: LV Shortage: BE; EE; FR; IT; NL; RO

121
Occupation

Telecommunications Traditional and Complementary

Engineering Technicians Medicine Associate Professionals
Shortage: AT; BE; CH; PT Shortage: HU
Surplus: RO Surplus: HU

Telecommunications Engineers Traditional and Complementary

Medicine Professionals
Shortage: AT; CH; FI; FR
Shortage: CH
Telephone Switchboard Operators Surplus: DK; HU

Surplus: HU
Training and Staff Development
Professionals
Textile; Fur and Leather Products
Machine Operators Not Elsewhere Shortage: IT; NO; RO
Classified
Surplus: DK; EE
Shortage: IT
Translators; Interpreters and
Textile; Fur and Leather Products Other Linguists
Machine Operators Not Elsewhere
Shortage: CH; IT; SE
Classified
Surplus: DK; DE; HU; LT; LU; RO; SI
Shortage: RO; SI
Transport Clerks
Tobacco Preparers and Tobacco
Products Makers Shortage: BE; CH; FR; NL; SI
Surplus: DK
Shortage: IT

Toolmakers and Related Workers Transport Conductors

Shortage: CH
Shortage: AT; BE; CH; EE; IT; LT; NL; PL; PT; SI
Surplus: FR
Surplus: BG; HU; RO; SK

Town and Traffic Planners Travel Attendants and Travel Stewards

Shortage: CH; HU; LV; RO
Shortage: CH; DE; NL
Surplus: HU
Surplus: DK; ES

Trade Brokers Travel Consultants and Clerks

Surplus: DK; ES; FI; FR; HU; RO; SI
Shortage: BE; SI

Travel Guides
Shortage: CH
Surplus: DK; ES; DE; FI; HU; RO

122
Occupation

Tree and Shrub Crop Growers Veterinary Technicians and Assistants

Shortage: BE; CH; HU; NL Shortage: DK
Surplus: DK; HU Surplus: LU; RO

Typists and Word Processing Operators Visual Artists

Shortage: IT Shortage: CH; IT
Surplus: DK; RO Surplus: DK; FI; FR; HU; LT; LV; RO

Undertakers and Embalmers Vocational Education Teachers

Shortage: CH Shortage: BE; CH; DK; EE; FR; IT; NL; NO; P ; SE
Surplus: DK; NL Surplus: DK

Underwater Divers Waiters

Surplus: DK Shortage: BE; BG; DK; EL; FI; FR; HU; IT; MT;
NL; NO; SI; SK
University and Higher Education
Surplus: HU; SK
Teachers
Shortage: CH; DK; EE; NL; NO; SI Water and Firewood Collectors
Surplus: DK; LV
Shortage: IT

Upholsterers and Related Workers Weaving and Knitting Machine

Shortage: BE; CH; HU; LT; NL
Operators
Surplus: DK; HU Shortage: BE; IT

Valuers and Loss Assessors Web and Multimedia Developers

Shortage: NL Shortage: AT; CH; CY; EE; FI; HR; IE; LV; NL
Surplus: HU Surplus: DK

Vehicle Cleaners Web Technicians

Shortage: IT Shortage: AT; DK; IE; IT
Surplus: SE Surplus: LV

Veterinarians Welders and Flame Cutters

Shortage: CH; NL Shortage: AT; BE; BG; CH; CY; EE; FI; FR; HR;
HU; IT; LV; NL; NO; PL; SI; SK
Surplus: HU

123
Occupation

Well Drillers and Borers and

Related Workers
Shortage: LV; NL
Surplus: DK; HU

Window Cleaners
Shortage: BE; DK; IT; NL; RO
Surplus: LU; SE

Wood Processing Plant Operators

Shortage: CY; EE; HU; IT; PL
Surplus: HU

Wood Treaters
Shortage: CH; EE; ES; PL; RO; SI
Surplus: HU

Woodworking Machine Tool

Setters and Operators
Shortage: BE; CH; EE; LT; NL; PL; SI
Surplus: FI; HU

Elementary Assembling Labourers

Not Elsewhere Classified
Shortage: SK

Manufacturing Labourers in
Food Processing
Shortage: SK

124
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