MANDALA CONSULTING - Indonesia Carbon Policy Landscape - Basic Overview Plus Full Picture of Global & Indonesia's Carbon's Complexities (Sep2024)
MANDALA CONSULTING - Indonesia Carbon Policy Landscape - Basic Overview Plus Full Picture of Global & Indonesia's Carbon's Complexities (Sep2024)
Mandala Consulting
September 2024
Objective:
2
Table of What is carbon and how does it impact climate change? 4
Carbon Footprint:
the total amount of GHG emitted by individual, organization, or product either directly or indirectly into the atmosphere as a result of
human activities. Total GHG is calculated by adding the emissions from every stage of a product or services’ lifetime:
Heat from the sun comes through the atmosphere and then
emitted back as infrared radiation. Greenhouse effect is when
the heat tries to leave earth, but some of it gets trapped by
chemicals like water vapor, carbon dioxide, and methane in
the atmosphere.
Throughout a product’s lifecycle various GHGs are emitted, each with a greater or lesser ability to trap heat in the atmosphere:
Industrial Gasses
Emissions characteristic
Heat-trapping
28 times stronger 265 times stronger PFC : 6,630 times stronger than CO2
ability 1 (low)
(warming impact of 1 tonne of than CO2 than CO2 SF6 : 23,500 times stronger than CO2
CO2 over a 100 year timescale)
Differences between GHGs are accounted for by the global warming potential of each gas and the carbon footprint is measured in units of carbon dioxide equivalents (CO2e)
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Carbon Dioxide, Methane, and Nitrous Oxide accounts to significant amount out of the
total Global Greenhouse Emission
Greenhouse
Gases CO2 CH4 N2O
Proportion from
total GHG
emission in 2019
72% 16% 5%
Each of these sectors emitted Agriculture sector emitted 60% of Agriculture sector emitted 40%
more than 97% of CO2 compare CH4 out of total GHG emitted within of N2O out of total GHG emitted
to other GHG within each of these this sector. within this sector
Highlights
sectors:
● Electricity and heat While Fugitive Emissions and Waste
● Transportation sectors each emitted 91% of CH4
● Manufacturing and out of total GHG emitted within each
Construction of these sectors.
* Fugitive emissions: unintended and undesirable releases (leakage or discharge) of gases or vapors from pressure containing
equipment, primarily associated with industrial activities 8
Appendix 1: Emissions contribution to Global Greenhouse Emission
Manufacturing and
6.30 12% 6.25 99.2% - - - -
construction
Land-use change
1.64 3% 1.36 83% 0.19 11% 0.09 5%
and forestry
Aviation and
1.31 3% - - - - - -
shipping
Other fuel
0.60 1% 0.59 98.0% 0.01 2% 0.002 0.3%
combustion
Emission
Share out of
total GHG 76% 15% 6% 3%
* using 2019 total GHG with percentage allocation based on 2016 proportion
Illustrations are processed from source: https://ourworldindata.org/emissions-by-sector
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Carbon emissions from other perspective: viewing it from their type of consumption*
* the figures here are for United States in 2020
Accounts to 10-30% of a household’s For each kWh of electricity generated, 16% of the total GHG emissions was
carbon footprint an average of 0.37 kg of CO2e is or emitted 0.9 billion metric tonne of CO2e
released at the power plant
Production accounts for 68% of food
emissions and transportation accounts
84% of emitted lifetime (roughly 29,937
9.4% of the total GHG emissions was kg CO2e) of an internal combustion
for 5% residential electricity use or emitted engine come from the use phase
561.1 mmt CO2e
Meat products exhibit higher carbon
footprint per calorie than vegetable due average emits 0.22 kg of CO2 per km
to less efficient conversion of plant to Space heating and cooling are typically
animal energy, methane release from projected to make up to 43% of average emits 0.25 kg of CO2e per
manure management, and enteric passenger km. Total commercial aircraft
energy consumption in household
fermentation in animals GHG emissions was 92.1 mmt CO2e*
*emissions vary according to aircraft type, trip length,
Cattle, sheep, and goats contributed 175 occupancy rates, and passenger and cargo weight
million metric tonnes (mmt) of CO2e
from enteric methane emissions. emitted 34.2 mmt CO2e, or 2% of
transportation emissions
Eliminating food transportation per
household for one year could save the
GHG equivalent of driving 1,609 km.
Information source: https://css.umich.edu/publications/factsheets/sustainability-indicators/carbon-footprint-factsheet
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Carbon visuals will make quantifying carbon footprints volume easier, such as to offset 1x
of filling up gas tank of a car require sequestering 566 m2 of forests for 1 year
Average carbon footprint per person is approximately 12 tonnes of CO2 per year
What does a tonne of CO2 looks like? What does 50 liters of gasoline consumed looks like?
Equivalent to:
Expressing CO2 in terms of activities 117 kg of CO2e released
● 4,023 km driven by an average gasoline passenger vehicle or Equivalent to GHG emissions from:
● 120,000 smartphone charges or 484 km driven by an average gasoline passenger vehicle
● 500 litres of diesel consumed
Equivalent to CO2 emissions from:
59 kg of coal burned
Equivalent to GHG emissions avoided by:
41 kg of waste recycled instead of landfilled or
4.4 incandescent lamps switched to LEDs
Equivalent to carbon sequestered by:
1.9 tree seedlings grown for 10 years or
566 m2 of forests sequestering CO2 for one year
Information source: https://www.edenseven.co.uk/
Rule of thumb
● CO2 offsetting rate varies from 21.8 to 31.5 kg CO2 per tree ● There are approximately 300 to 500 trees per hectare
● To compensate 1 tonne of CO2 31 to 46 trees are required ● 1 hectare of forest: 500 trees x 24 kg CO2/tree = 12 tonnes CO2
● 1,000 kWh of electricity emits 400 kg of CO2 offsets/hectare
● 1,000 kWh of natural gas emits 181 kg of CO2
● 1 liter of fuel oil emits approximately 2.7 kg of CO2
Information source: https://www.encon.eu/
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Although Indonesia has moderate yearly GHG emission, per capita emissions is
considerably lower compare to other countries especially in Asia
Advanced in terms of Slightly lower Lower annual Lower annual CO2 Significantly Significantly
carbon trading market annual CO2 CO2 emissions emissions lower annual lower annual
and regulation emissions CO2 emissions CO2 emissions
Electricity (42%)
613.5 Mil tonnes Manufacturing (22%) 11.8 tonnes Reduce 40% from 2018 USD 1.8 Tril Services (57.0%)
Electricity (31%)
367.8 Mil tonnes Agriculture (30%) 11.4 tonnes Reduce 45% from 2005 USD 373 Bil Services (51.6%)
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How do we
measure
carbon
emissions?
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Three scopes of greenhouse gas protocol accounting method: Scope 1 emissions are
directly owned or controlled by a company, while scope 2 and 3 emissions are indirect
Scoping is a mechanism that classify various types of emissions generated within a company’s operations and throughout its value chain
76%
25.1 million MT of CO2e Product
manufacturing
3%
0% Business < 1% 5% 14%
Apple’s Carbon < 1% Emissions
travel &
employee
Material
Product
Product use
Direct from recovery
Footprint commute transport
emissions electricity
Energy
Consumer Discretionary
Materials
Information Technology
sectors have significant Scope 3 Downstream
Financials GHG emissions, except for Communication
Communication Services Services and Health Care sectors.
Health Care
Real Estate
Examples: Examples:
● Energy Efficiency Improvements: implementing energy ● Renewable Energy Transition: changing from fossil
efficient technologies fuels base to renewable energy sources (solar, wind,
hydroelectric and geothermal power)
● Low Carbon Transportation: encourage cycling, walking
and electric vehicles ● Carbon Offsetting: investing in carbon offset projects
that remove CO2 from the atmosphere, example:
● Carbon Capture Storage: capturing carbon from power
reforestation, afforestation or carbon farming initiatives
plant and storing it underground to prevent GHG release in
the atmosphere ● Sustainable Agriculture: adopting farming practices
that improve soil health and reduce greenhouse
● Green Building Design: constructing energy-efficient
emissions
building
● Waste Reduction and Recycling: the aim is to reduce
methane and potent GHG from landfills
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Alternative to Nature Base Solution: Coastal Blue Carbon where absorptions of CO2 from the atmosphere
and storing it within saltwater ecosystems gain traction as it generates higher amount of carbon
Salt Marshes Mangroves Seagrass Meadows
Soils and vegetation in coastal ecosystems store between 10 and 24 billion metric tonnes of carbon, in addition every year they add
between 30 to 70 million metric tons to their soils
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Appendix 2: Global Carbon Storage Potential of Coastal Ecosystems in millions of tonnes of
carbon per year and global locations of key blue-carbon ecosystems
The estimates vary from approximately 0.15 million tonnes per year (lightest
green) in regions like Greenland, west part of South America, and around
Antarctica, to 11 million tonnes per year (dark blue) in areas like Australia,
Indonesia, and the United States.
Global Locations
The carbon storage capacity of coastal ecosystems have its own weakness despite the benefits: when these ecosystems are disrupted or drained, they
have the potential to release significant amounts of CO2 back into the atmosphere. However, when protected or restored, they can serve as a valuable
tool for offsetting CO2 emissions, particularly for island nations and developing countries with relatively lower greenhouse gas emissions. Additionally,
these ecosystems offer various other benefits such as wildlife habitat and hurricane protection. Consequently, strategies aimed at safeguarding and
revitalizing coastal blue-carbon ecosystems are expected to play an increasingly important role in international climate policies in the years ahead.
Illustration and information source: www.climate.gov
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Carbon market offers the opportunity to trade three types of carbon:
Reduction, Offset, and Removal
Removal
Reduction Offset
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Compliance offsetting is legally required and enforceable by regulations, while voluntary
offsetting is optional and driven by choice
Carbon Pricing: an approach to reducing GHG emissions by assigning monetary value to carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions
Tax imposed on the carbon content of fossil fuels Sets a limit on emissions for industries and power Involve the creation and trading of carbon
or other emissions sources, setting a price per plants. These entities must buy allowances to credits or offsets. Projects that reduce emissions,
tonne of CO2 or equivalent emissions. It is applied emit a certain amount of greenhouse gases. If example: renewable energy or reforestation
at the point of carbon emission, increasing the cost they exceed their allowances, they must purchase initiatives, can generate these credits and can be
of carbon-intensive activities and creating an more from others with surplus allowances. sold to entities looking to offset their emissions.
economic incentive to reduce emissions.
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Cap and Trade sets a limit on emissions and allows allowances trading, while carbon credit
mechanisms focus on generate and trading credits based on emissions removals
Allocate a fixed number of emission allowances to Generate tradable carbon credits through specific
Emission covered entities and sectors. These allowances projects or activities that reduce or remove greenhouse
Allowances represent the right to emit a specific amount of gas emissions. Each credit represents a quantified
greenhouse gases. emission reduction or removal
Create a market for trading emission allowances Create a market for trading carbon credits. Entities or
Market
among entities. Entities with excess allowances can individuals can purchase credits generated by emission
Dynamics sell them to those needing additional allowances. reduction projects to offset their own emissions.
Regulatory Often implemented as mandatory compliance Usually operate under voluntary frameworks, but can be
Nature mechanisms under government regulations integrated into regulatory
Carbon offset projects are vetted and verified to ensure that they are additional, meaning that the emission reductions or
removals achieved would not have occurred without the support of the offset funding. Verification is typically done by
independent third-party organizations to maintain transparency and credibility.
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Brief overview of carbon offset market
● Project Feasibility ● Securing investors ● Project Design Once it has been Could be sold via
Study (including and funds for the Document fully validated and carbon exchange,
profit (loss) and project audited by third verified by the carbon broker, or
operational cost) party auditor registry, carbon directly to company.
● Detail on who is
● Registry process: credit can be sold
● Project Design going to fund
where they will in the market.
Document (example:
visit the site or
offtaking, where a
● Baseline and forest to validate
company invest in
additionality study the carbon project.
carbon project
● Land tenure study development) and
● Etc using what kind of
funds (example:
ESG fund)
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Two main important stakeholders to ensure the existence of carbon offset market are
Project Developers and Registrator
Standards for certifying carbon emissions reduction firms: A voluntary climate change mitigation framework by UN:
● Commonly adapted voluntary offset standards ● Referred to as Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) that
● Offers robust quantifying and verifying GHG emission allows emission reduction projects in developing countries to
reductions framework earn certified emission reductions (CERs).
● Projects aiming for these standards must adhere to specific ● It encompasses activities related to conservation, sustainable
criteria related to project design, monitoring, reporting, and management of forests, and enhancement of forest carbon
third-party verification stocks.
● Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest
Degradation (REDD+), framework developed under UNFCCC
to address deforestation and degradation.
It is recommended for individuals and organizations to choose projects that comply with acknowledged standards and have been
independently verified by third-party auditors to ensures the reliability and efficacy of the offsetting process while maintaining its integrity.
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VCS has the biggest market share among the other standards with the most registered
projects that are mainly in the developing countries
746 Million credits 184 Million credits 66 Million credits 63 Million credits
Market Volume
70.4% share 17.4% share 6.2% share 6.0% share
Has issued more than 1 billion carbon credits Analyzed ⅔ of 87 Verra-approved active projects 94% of the credits produced by the projects
and approves ¾ of all voluntary offsets. (several were left out because there was not enough information should not have been approved
available to be fairly assessed)
94.9 m
carbon credits claimed In 32 projects*, the baseline scenarios of
forest loss are overstated by about 400%.
Out of 40 Verra projects, several had Out of these 3 projects in Madagascar have
stopped some deforestation, although the achieved excellent results and altered the
areas were extremely small. figures. If these 3 projects are not included,
5.5 m the average inflation is about 950%.
real emissions reductions Only 4 projects were responsible for ¾ of
the total forest that was protected. * where it was possible to compare Verra’s claims with
the scientists study finding
Each credit is equal to one metric tonne of CO2 equivalent
Other mechanisms as
Non-Tax Revenue
authorized by the Case by case basis
(PNBP)
Minister
Implementation is carried out within 3 stages: Governance of economic value of carbon is 0 - 5% to offset domestic GHG emission
1. Registration regulated, including transparency structure,
2. Technical validation monitoring and evaluation, and financing. Minimum of 10% until 20% to offset foreign GHG
3. Verification of actions and resources emission obligated by Nationally Determined
Detailed regulation on specific sectors and Contribution (NDC)
When validation result is successful, SRN will sub-sectors will be regulated by respective
allocate a registration number ministries Minimum of 20% to offset foreign non-NDC GHG
emission
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Indonesia launched its first carbon exchange with IDX responsible for the platform.
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High initial transaction volumes and fluctuating demand shows Indonesia’s carbon
exchange infancy stages
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This is presented by limited demand on IDX Carbon due to voluntary offsetting, sector
limitation on carbon cap, and low carbon tax rate..
Voluntary offsetting Sector limitation on carbon cap Low carbon tax rate
● Current carbon regulatory regime does not ● Current carbon cap scheme limits carbon ● The carbon tax mandated by the Omnibus Tax
present mandatory carbon offsetting quota for electricity subsector, particularly to Law (UU HHP) is currently lower than the rates
mechanism. 42 coal-fired power station with upcoming available in the carbon exchange, as the tax
● Voluntary nature of carbon offsetting does not expansion to other electricity generation. rate has not yet been adjusted in the house of
present demand for emitter to buy carbon representative.
● However, subsector apart from electricity
credit from IDX carbon. does not yet have carbon cap, resulting to ● Carbon taxes are often designed to be higher or
● Areas with high compliance carbon offsetting, limited trade activity on carbon exchange. on par with the average price of carbon credits
such as EU, present a higher volume of carbon ● In addition, critics mentioned that PLN is ● When carbon tax is more affordable, demand
traded on the carbon exchange merely trading carbon within its own power for carbon on the secondary market is likely
plants, leading to the carbon remaining going to be reduced.
confined within those facilities
Benchmarking to EU ETS Carbon Current Carbon Tax and Carbon ETS price
“... since the emission trading system in Cap Sector
Indonesia is voluntary, there is little
Ratio of Carbon
incentive for company to participate in the Carbon Tax Carbon ETS
Country Tax to Carbon
Price (USD) Price (USD)
carbon exchange. Usually, company prefer ETS
to offset its carbon via their own initiative
rather than via IDX carbon” 0.4x less
1.87 3.84
expensive
Aircraft Energy Manufacturing 2x more
1.91 0.95
Carbon Analyst, expensive
Leading Carbon Trading Company
1.7x more
107.78 61.3
expensive
Unattractive carbon price Limited carbon registry methodology Lengthy approval for SPE GRK
● Unattractive carbon price have stalled carbon ● Indonesia’s registry system for carbon unit (SRN) is
● SPE GRK lengthy process stalled carbon offset
offset projects from listing on IDX carbon. seen as not accommodating carbon offset project,
project to be listed on IDX Carbon.
● As a result, many carbon offset project especially for nature based projects and niche
carbon project to obtain SPE GRK. ● Limited SPE GRK verificator also increase
developers in Indonesia adopt a wait-and-see
bottleneck in assessing current carbon offset
approach, hoping for improvements in local ● Compared to more established carbon
project.
carbon prices or aspiring to sell carbon on standardisation agency, Indonesia’s methodology
global ETS. in SRN is relatively limited ● SPE GRK verificator shortage arises since MEF
only chooses five verification agency to verify
● Yet, according to regulations, selling carbon ● For example, Verra offered 99 different
carbon offset project since 2023.
to foreign countries requires authorization methodologies of registering carbon while SRN
from the Ministry of Forestry, which is often only accommodate 49 different methodologies.
reluctant to expedite such approval.
ETS Carbon Price Comparison “Methodology to assess nature based “Apart from limited verificator, our
carbon offset project in Indonesia is process of obtaining SPE GRK involves
relatively limited [compared to other various bureaucratic delays. Ministry
USD 3.83 per tCO2 international standardisation agency],
this makes it hard for FOLU project to
that is in charge of issuing often have
limited manpower to assess our
be registered on SRN] and listed on IDX document, resulting a prolonged
carbon” process”
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If the carbon tax remains low as discussed in the previous slide, why Renewable Energy
Certificates still interesting?
What is REC? When will RECs or carbon tax work for companies?
A Renewable Energy Certificate (REC) certifies the consumption of electricity REC Carbon Tax
from renewable energy sources like solar, wind, or hydro.
● CSR: Companies with strong CSR Financial
commitments may buy RECs despite the Consideration:
higher cost to support renewable energy Companies
How does it work? and demonstrate sustainability. focused on cost
reduction will opt
● Reputation: Purchasing RECs can boost a for the carbon tax.
Produce 1 MWh company’s reputation by showing proactive
Bought by The company can claim their
electricity electricity comes from carbon footprint reduction, benefiting
translate to 1 REC renewable energy, even if it’s
in any given price branding and customer relations.
actually sourced elsewhere.
Any
Company REC for long term vs. Carbon tax for short term
Renewable energy
power plant
REC: Carbon Tax:
The REC program are currently part of the international tracking system of APX TIGRs. The REC prices depend on the age and type
of the RE plants. In total, there are:
USD 12.9
PLTP Lahendong 80 MW
(2001) - North Sulawesi million
The REC price usually determined by many factors such as: energy type and source, market demand, quality, volume traded, and contract duration.
40
How attractive
is the carbon
market in
Indonesia
financially?
41
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Indonesia need to increase its total supply of carbon available in the market to meet its
NDC reduction requirement
Average annual GHG reduction requirement of Average annual market of $4.1 billion*
593.1 million metric tonnes (mmt) Total of $33.2 billion between 2023 - 2030
Government
Stakeholders
Badan Pengelola Dana
Ministry of Environment and Forestry Otoritas Jasa Keuangan (OJK)
Lingkungan Hidup (BPDLH)
Responsible for formulating and A non-echelon public service agency OJK has been designated to oversee
implementing policies, regulations, and (BLU) operating under the authority and Indonesia's carbon trading platform.
programs related to environmental accountability of the Minister of Finance While the OJK's current responsibilities
conservation, including the management of of the Republic of Indonesia. BPDLH revolve around regulating and
carbon emissions and climate change serves as an environmental funding supervising the financial services sector,
Description mitigation efforts. The ministry oversees the mechanism that channels and their capability to effectively oversee
development and implementation of strategies distributes funds to support Indonesia's carbon finance as a new financial
for reducing greenhouse gas emissions, vision of environmental preservation, instrument or commodity to trade is
promoting sustainable forest management, preventing pollution and degradation. unclear. To ensure international investors,
and supporting initiatives related to carbon OJK will collaborate with experts on
trading and offsetting. carbon trading.
Establish frameworks and mechanisms for Consolidate diverse funding sources to be Setting up legal framework governing the
carbon footprint management, monitoring, utilized across various sectors (forestry, establishment and functioning of carbon
reporting, and verification. energy, mineral resources, carbon trading, specifically carbon exchange
Interest
trading, environmental services, industry,
transport, agriculture, marine, and
fisheries).
Currently developing Indonesian carbon n/a Carbon Exchange will be launch by OJK
Latest
regulation for international market. in September 2023.
Development
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Key Stakeholders in Indonesia (2/2)
Stakeholders
Fairatmos: An Indonesian climate tech Project Katingan: The project claim it annually generates 7.5 million triple
startup in December 2022 secured a $4.5 gold certified carbon credits, or equivalent to removing 2,000,000 cars from
million seed funding round, co-led by the road each year. The project utilizes carbon revenues to support the
Go-Ventures and Kreasi Terbarukan TBS, restoration and protection of natural forests.
with participation from Vertex Ventures
Southeast Asia and India. The startup offers Rimba Raya: Location of the project is Central Kalimantan where it
several products to support climate action conserve peat swamp forest (REDD+). They claim the projects avoid 130
for individuals and organizations. million tonnes of CO2e
Description ICDX: A prominent commodity exchange in CarbonX: focuses on investing in and developing a diverse array of projects
Indonesia that offers comprehensive that can be economically viable through carbon finance. CarbonX seeks to
services. They facilitate multilateral revolutionize the market and collaborate on climate actions, fostering a
commodity and derivative trading. collective effort towards a more sustainable future.
Committed to establishing a carbon trading
market that adheres to regulations and Forest Carbon: focus on restoring wetland forests. The project is located in
standards. ICDX aim to sell carbon outside of Sumatra called Sumatra Merang Peatland Project. So far it raised more than
OJK’s carbon market. ICDX do not have
5 million Euro of investment and support restoration of more than 22,000
carbon supply or stock.
hectares of forest.
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What are the
top issues of
carbon trading
in Indonesia?
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Top 3 Issues of Carbon Trading Market in Indonesia (1/2)
1. Lack of Understanding in Nature Based Carbon Potential for 2. Partnership between Indonesia’s standard (SRN) and international
Project Developer / Land Owners certification have not been established
Stakeholders in Indonesia focus on land acquisition with the aim for utilizing Cooperation between the Government of Indonesia (lead by Ministry of
them for carbon projects Environment and Forestry) and Verra needs to be established
Moderate risk: many carbon projects benefit could not be realized Different standards between Indonesia and International Certification
3. Many carbon players investment plan outside of generator sector are put in limbo
Currently Indonesian Government is still developing the regulation for international market carbon trading
Evidence Reference
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Thank you
Authors: