“Estimating the Effect of Housing Societies on the Agricultural Sector.

” A case study of
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa with specific reference to the enacted building by-laws in last 15
years.

This comprehensive guide will ensure that you address the topic thoroughly,
incorporating analysis, case studies, and theoretical frameworks

ABSTRACT

INTRODUCTION
More than 35.5 million people living in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa are dependent on
agriculture for their livelihoods. Approximately 22 % of the provincial GDP comes from
agriculture (GoKP, 2020), and 33 % of the population is dependent on crops and
livestock output to make a living (FAO, 2021). Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, a study province,
was purposively selected because the majority of its population (75 %) is rural and
dependent on agriculture (Malik et al., 2016), and the landholding and cultivated farms.
Urbanization is rapidly increasing in the developing world as well. As pointed out by
Farrell (2017), current urban growth in developing countries is even faster than it was in
the corresponding period of developed countries. Specifically, in China, the rapid
urbanization has hollowed out the villages' population and caused uncertainties about
future food supply. In China, as well as the rest of the developing world, there is a clear
need for raising agriculture's productivity to levels where fewer farmers can feed the
increasing urban populations, while they at the same time can raise their incomes and
narrow the income gap to the urban income earners. New housing and infrastructure in
the expanding city-regions have received much attention in research and policy. As
mentioned above, in China and other countries, there are also concerns about
agriculture's future in the vast country-sides that are “given over to nature”.
However, the main bulk of studies have focused on the transformation of agricultural
land to built-up areas (Harvey and Clark, 1965; Bruckner, 2000; Bae, 2017) and the
impact of urbanization on the change in cultivated land (Deng et al., 2015). Much less
attention has been given to agricultural transformation and use of unbuilt-up land in
metropolitan regions. A pioneering work in this field was published by the U.S.
Department of Agriculture in 1989 and one conclusion is that metro farms are generally
smaller, have a higher land intensity in their production, are more diverse and focused
on high-value production compared to farms elsewhere (Heimlich and Brooks, 1989, p.
iii).
Urbanization denominates the change or shift from a rural setting to an urban setting,
and the increase in the proportion of people living in the urban areas and how they
adapt to this change pushes and displacing farmers in peri-urban areas out from good
agricultural lands because of high demand for housing and certain social amenities.
Agricultural land losses often occur in peri-urban areas where there are high-quality
farmlands. It is important that the government fulfills its obligations to strengthen urban
land-use planning systems so that there is increased stakeholder participation in land
use planning while encouraging vertical type building construction for commercial and
residential purposes.
STATEMENT OF THE PROBLEM
Agricultural land abandonment occasioned by an unwieldy urban sprawl is a
widespread Land Use Land Conversion process in Punjab Province. Spatial-temporal
shrinkage of arable land concurrent with intensified densification within the built-up area
as well as peripheral urban growth are persistently on the rise, transforming the rural
urban interface, that too haphazardly which has invariably resulted in mushrooming
entrenchment of slums or undesirable residential areas with lack of services and
amenities, unfolding chaotic intermix of conforming and non-conforming land uses,
thereby accentuating wastage of cultivable areas. SDG goals as part of the 2030
agenda thus remain a distant dream.
Unplanned urban sprawl at the expense of reduction in arable land and sub optimal
mitigation measures to promote climate resilient agriculture, water conservation, also
conniving at arresting environmental degradation is resulting in reduced agricultural
productivity from the left over prime land which can turn ominous for food security and
poverty reduction, Loss of agricultural land, rural livelihood, land use and land cover
changes, land policy draw backs and environmental degradation are not attracting
remedial action in a concerted manner. Annual Development plan spending on
Agriculture, Urban development, Climate Resilience and infrastructure Development are
unable to yield tangible results.
The key research question, the study took up for resolving was as to whether the
current state of affairs was to perpetuate unabated or a holistic and structured reform
agenda could be firmed up with a multipronged remedial measure, supplemented with a
road map based actionable interventions.

LITERATURE REVIEW
Angel, S., Parent, J., & Civco, D. L. (2012). Explain what housing societies are. You can
mention the transition from traditional rural housing to organized and often gated
communities catering to urban populations.
Seto, K. C., Güneralp, B., & Hutyra, L. R. (2012). Provided an overview of the
agricultural sector, its significance in terms of economic contribution, employment, and
food security.
DeFries, R., & Rosenzweig, C. (2010). Discussed how urban sprawl leads to housing
development encroaching on agricultural land. The conflict between the need for urban
development and preserving agricultural land forms the core of the discussion. He
highlight why studying this issue is crucial—focus on the consequences of unchecked
urban expansion, food security risks, and the balance between development and
agriculture.
Lambin, E. F., & Meyfroidt, P. (2011). Foley, J. A., et al. (2005). Güneralp, B., & Seto, K.
C. (2008). Discussed how global population growth and economic factors have driven
urbanization, leading to the creation of more housing societies. They talked about
traditional agricultural practices and how the allocation of land has changed with time
due to factors like the industrial revolution and economic liberalization. They introduced
examples of countries (like India, China, and Brazil) where urbanization has directly
impacted agricultural land.
Zhang, Y., & Wu, S. (2016). Discussed how fertile, arable land is converted into
residential plots for housing societies. You can use specific examples or statistics from
different regions to illustrate this. He reviewed the legal process behind converting
agricultural land to urban use, including land acquisition laws and zoning regulations
that favor housing projects. He examined how housing construction impacts the soil,
often leading to its degradation, and discuss how water resources are diverted from
agricultural use to urban areas. He Quantified the loss of agricultural output due to the
decline in available farmland, emphasizing how this affects both local economies and
food security.
McGranahan, G., & Satterthwaite, D. (2014). Harriss-White, B., & Janakarajan, S.
(2004). Analyzed how labor moves from the agricultural sector to construction and
service sectors. Discuss how rural populations transition to urban employment, and the
resulting loss of agricultural expertise. Discussed how land prices increase with the
development of housing societies, which often forces small-scale farmers to sell their
land. Explored how the loss of land and resources negatively affects agricultural
productivity, leading to lower output and, in some cases, the importation of food.
Examined how the real estate market competes with agriculture, with rural land often
being purchased by developers for housing projects rather than for farming purposes.
Ellis, E. C., & Ramankutty, N. (2008). Seto, K. C., & Reenberg, A. (2014). Discussed
how rural populations are often displaced, losing their traditional livelihoods and facing
cultural dislocation. Addressed the erosion of rural identities and the blending of urban
lifestyles into traditionally agricultural areas. Discuss how housing societies introduce
new social norms that may clash with local customs. They considered the loss of local
agricultural products, which often leads to changes in food culture and availability of
traditional foods.

METHODOLOGY
Both primary and secondary data is used in this research study. The primary source of
information to assess spatiotemporal process of urban agriculture land use conversion
in different time span were In-depth reviews gathered from different sources of personal
land details gathered from the owners, who sold their agricultural land for housing
purposes or have converted their land agricultural lands for housing purposes by
themselves. The spatial primary data was created to show the housing societies in
different towns of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa using Geographical Information System (GIS).
In this case housing societies as a secondary source of information was collected from
Local Government Department. Secondary data was used to find out the temporal
agricultural land use conversions, urban land use conversion sectors and its effects on
UPA crop production. The data was collected from various research articles which was
further verified by various statistical organisations. The data was modified according to
the subject requirements.
The many thesis were built on the detailed analysis of the building by-laws enacted by
the Local Government Department, being the administrative department of all the local
offices who are involved in giving institutional support for the conversion of all such
agricultural lands for housing purposes.

THEORITICAL FRAMEWORK

Agricultural production is significantly affected by urbanization on agriculture land and

the intensity of usage of agriculture land (Hualou & Jian, 2010; Jiang et al., 2012). In
Pakistan, enormous green spaces have already been transformed into housing
societies due to population and urbanization trends. This is a worrying issue for
Pakistan since rising housing demand harms agricultural lands and could endanger the
nation’s future food security (Shah et al., 2021).

Pakistan is considered the most urbanized nation in South Asia since urbanization has
rapidly increased. Currently, at 37.44 percent, the urban population is probable to reach
50 percent by 2025 (Pakistan Economic Survey, 2021-22). An increase in rural-to-urban
migration is the primary driver of urban expansion.

Land management and the transformation of cultivated and forested lands to non-
agriculture uses are the key issues with land and city plans; they impede the economic
development of urban areas and influence the utilization of available natural and human
resources. Pakistan already has a food shortage, thus, it cannot afford to lose more
agricultural land, especially on the outskirts of cities (Kugelman, 2014). Migration is the
main cause of urbanization in Pakistan; in previous decades, Afghans and Muslims from
India came to Pakistani cities to escape conflict in their native countries. Pakistanis from
the countryside are now migrating to the cities in search of new jobs and improved basic
amenities, as well as to flee conflict, insecurity, and natural disasters. The rise in the
nation's urban population can also be attributed to this rise in total population
(Kugelman, 2013). By considering the importance of urbanization in influencing
agriculture production, this investigation analyses the impact of urbanization on
agriculture output in Pakistan.

The process of land use change necessitates an examination of the diverse root causes
or elements that contribute to distinct explanatory frameworks, which can manifest in
either exogenous or endogenous interactions (Turner et al., 2020). The total amount of
land in a given area or system remains fixed or unchanging over a specific period.
However, demand for land varies and depends on various factors, such as the location,
environment and resources (Angelsen and Kaimowitz, 1999).

According to (Veni and Alivelu, 2005) in India the rapid growth in population has put
immense pressure on the farmland, which has decreased the production of food grains
crops. The land under built environment has been doubled over a period of past 50
years. The spatio-temporal dynamics in land use from 1990 to 2010 were extracted
through the analysis of multi-spectral Landsat images.
Rapid growth in population and subsequent urbanization is the main cause of enormous
increase in land use changes in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. The overall land use changes
that took place in 1990 and 2010. The urban built-up area that has increased
substantially during the last two decades has been. During this period, Khyber
Pakhtunkhwa has undergone substantial expansion in terms of its urban mass. Both
visual and change detection maps revealed that most of the farmland in Khyber
Pakhtunkhwa has been consumed by residential, commercial and other uses indicating
that arable soil has been converted to impervious surfaces. Likewise, in 1990 a big
chunk of waste land was converted for such uses. The conversion of the food basket
land and cultivable waste land into different land uses has been discerns.
THE THESIS
Urbanization leads to a continuous loss of agricultural land, both directly under the form
of land take, and indirectly through the use of agricultural land for non-productive rural
activities like recreation, horse keeping or hobby farming. These urbanization processes
put pressure on farmers, making farming activities harder through reduced agricultural
land, negative externalities and the competition for land.
In order to curb the tendency, the Government of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa has enacted d
the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Land-Use and Building Control Act, 2021, for the for the
regulation of land-use and building control, in the Province of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, and
for matters connected therewith and incidental thereto.
The law is comprehensive and all encompassing. It defines “agricultural area”/ land as,
means the land, outside the peri-urban area, which is predominantly used for the
cultivation of crops and includes cropland, pastureland, orchards, nurseries, poultry
farms, fish farms and dairy farms and the areas earmarked in the district land use plan
or master plan.
By this comprehensive definition the housing society builders and developers have very
less room for construction of housing societies on agriculture late but due lack proper
implementation mechanism enforcement the issue remains persist.

CONCLUSION

The present study demonstrated the effectiveness of remote sensing and Geographic
Information System as a tool in analyzing land use changes. The analysis revealed that
the area has experienced a rapid growth during the last two decades (1990-2010). The
area under built environment has increased from 953 ha to 1,994 ha over the study
period. The city has expanded in all directions over the peri-urban farmland. Most of this
expansion is haphazard and unplanned mainly following ribbon sprawl along the roads
and radiating out of the city. Over the period, the agricultural land has been lost to built-
up area. The cultivable waste land which covered a big chunk (827 ha) in 1990 has
been reduced to mere 16 ha in 2010. During 1990-2010 about 613 ha of cultivable
waste land and 371 ha of farmland were lost to built-up uses. Though, there was also a
gain in farmland, about 141 ha of cultivable waste land was transformed to farmland.
Escalation in land value, housing demands, improvement in transport was the main
factors responsible for the conversion of farmland into built-up areas. Consequently, the
per capita farmland has been reduced, gradually. However, the production of cereal
crops have been increased due to better irrigation facilities and utilization of improved
type of seeds and application of fertilizers over the study period. In order to sustainably
utilize the urban land, the government must promote agriculture and encourage,
establish and reinforce farmer organizations in Mardan city and or in peri-urban areas.
Also, effective land use zoning may help to contain the urban encroachment over the
farmland. The urban authorities may restrict construction on the available farmland. It
could also develop alternate sites for development of new townships on the barren land.
Monitoring urban expansion is also necessary to make the city’s expansion is
accordance with the urban planning standard. GIS and Remote Sensing techniques
could be used to monitor urban expansion in and around Mardan city. The government
should also initiate awareness programs on the negative implications of haphazard
urban sprawl.

The findings of the study reveal that land conversion is driven by a complex set of
factors, including individual farmers and households, land, geographical, institutional,
economic, commercial and industrial. Policymakers and researchers should consider
these factors comprehensively in order to develop effective policies to manage land
conversion and promote sustainable agriculture development.
Among the individual factors, the farmers’ education positively influenced agrarian land
conversion
An increase in agricultural output not only improves the economic growth of a country
but also ensures food security. However, an increase in population leads to rapid
urbanization and environmental degradation, affecting agriculture output. The primary
aim of this article is to analyze how urbanization effect agriculture output in Pakistan. To
achieve this objective, we use yearly data from 1970 to 2020. To analyze the long-run
estimation of the parameters nonlinear ARDL model is used. The NARDL model is
employed to analyze the asymmetric effects of urbanization on agriculture output. The
findings show that the urban population growth rate has an asymmetric and statistically
significant impact on agriculture output in Pakistan. It is evident that positive changes in
urbanization adversely affect agriculture output. The coefficient of the variable point out
that increase in urbanization leads to the 8.2391 units decline in agriculture output.
Similarly, negative changes in urbanization positively affect the agriculture output in
Pakistan. The coefficient value specifies that a decline in the urban population growth
rate leads to an increase in agriculture output by 1.9750 units. On the other hand, the
labour force participation rate and GFCF are found to positively and significantly
influence the agriculture output, while foreign direct investment and external debt
adversely influence the agricultural output in Pakistan. Environmental degradation is
found to negatively but insignificantly influence the agriculture output in Pakistan. This
study has some important policy implications, such as controlling the negative
consequences of urbanization on agriculture output, agriculture land of the country
should be protected. Policies need to be designed to protect the urbanization on
agriculture lands. Policymakers should also ensure the efficient use of external debt in
the agriculture sector to improve agriculture infrastructure. Similarly, to improve the level
of agricultural output in Pakistan, the government should provide subsidies and credit
facilities to the farmers. More research is also needed for better seed verities and usage
of modern technologies. This study also has some limitations. The agriculture sector is
vital for many economies. The agriculture sector consists of crops, forestry, livestock,
and fishing. This study analyses the asymmetric impact of urbanization. The influence of
urbanization on the agriculture sector is seen; however, future studies could also
analyze the link between urbanization and subsectors of agriculture in Pakistan. On the
other hand, urbanization significantly influences the groundwater level, but this
association is not considered due to the unavailability of time series data. Future studies
could also explore urbanization’s impact on groundwater levels in Pakistan.

Provincial Governments should give a task to the District Governments to carryout

detailed survey of the urban areas and identify potential areas for developing housing
schemes. Assign experts to study the ecological, environmental and civic factors and
develop master plans in a futuristic considering the population growth and urban
migration. Master plans should lead to zoning of areas and establishing of associated
trunk infrastructure for development of housing schemes in a planned manner. Green
lands should not be used for housing societies but brown lands should be used for
establishing housing societies. District and Tehsil level demonstrations to develop a
database for information on the land falling within their jurisdiction by applying modern
scientific concepts and technology. Demonstrate political will and leadership to protect
investments and legitimate interests of the stakeholders involved in development of
cooperative and private housing societies. Involve the district administration
(Nazims/Chairmen & DCOs) in the monitoring and accountability.