10 Damtew Teferra

References The Nexus Between Higher Education

Naidu, E. (2023). Africa’s academic leaders agree on charter for collaboration.
University World News. 11 July 2023 https://www.universityworldnews. Expansion and Economic Growth in Ethiopia:
com/post.php?story=20230710113237957#:~:text=African%20 An Empirical Examination
university%20heads%2C%20research%20bodies,research%20
collaborations%20across%20the%20continent. Paulos C. Tsegaw
Teferra, D. (2023). The arduous journey to establish a successful
journal. University World News. 23 March 2023. https://www.
universityworldnews.com/post.php?story=20230321085410216 Abstract
Teferra, D. (2022a). Editorial: Academic Collaboration in Africa, Asia Over the past three decades, Ethiopia’s higher education system has
and Latin America in the Post-COVID World. International Journal undergone substantial expansion, marked by an increase in the number
of African Higher Education, 9(3), 1-12. https://doi.org/10.6017/ of universities from two to more than 100 and a surge in student
ijahe.v9i3.16033 enrollment from 48 000 to more than 400 000. Despite this growth,
Teferra, D. (2022b). Prospect or burden? Managing Africa’s linear there is a paucity of research on the relationship between higher education
partnerships. University World News. 10 March 2022. https://www. expansion and economic growth, with the few quantitative studies that
universityworldnews.com/post.php?story=20220308135706927 have been undertaken yielding inconsistent outcomes. This research
Teferra, D. (2021). Editorial: The Role of the African Intellectual Diaspora study embraced endogenous economic growth theory, employed the
in Advancing Higher Education. International Journal of African Autoregressive Distributive Lag (ARDL) bound testing model, and used
Higher Education, 8(2), 1-9. https://ejournals.bc.edu/index.php/ World Bank data from 1991 to 2021 to explore the relationship between
ijahe/article/view/13469 economic growth (measured by GDP per capita) and the expansion
Teferra, D. (2020). Editorial: Internationalisation of Higher Education of higher education (proxied by gross tertiary enrollment). Contrary
in the New Era of World (Dis)Order. International Journal of African to prevailing assumptions, the study uncovered an insignificant
Higher Education, 7(2). https://doi.org/10.6017/ijahe.v7i2.12885 association between higher education expansion and economic growth.
Teferra, D. (2018). Editorial: Continental Realities, International Unlike other studies, it used qualitative analysis to unearth the potential
Imperatives. International Journal of African Higher Education, 4(2). contributing factors and identified subpar educational quality, limited
https://doi.org/10.6017/ijahe.v4i2.10294 university autonomy, and constrained academic freedom as critical
Teferra, D. (2016). Editorial. International Journal of African Higher issues. It is recommended that policymakers in countries undergoing
Education, 3(1). https://doi.org/10.6017/ijahe.v3i1.9633 similar higher education expansion should not only focus on increasing
Strengthening no-fee open access publishing in Africa. https:// the number of students, but also prioritise improving the quality of
www.eifl.net/news/grant-call-strengthening-no-fee-open-access- education, granting greater autonomy to universities, and ensuring
publishing-africa?utm_source=EIFLall&utm_medium=email&utm_ academic freedom. These factors are crucial for higher education to
campaign=newsletter128 effectively contribute to economic growth.

Key words: Higher education expansion, economic growth, ARDL

bound testing model, Ethiopia

ABOUT THE AUTHOR: paulos c. tsegaw, Virginia State University, USA,

email: [email protected]
12 Paulos C. Tsegaw The Nexus Between Higher Education Expansion and Economic Growth in Ethiopia: 13
An Empirical Examination

Résumé: Introduction
Au cours des trois dernières décennies, le système d’enseignement
Higher education is a significant investment in human capital, offering
supérieur éthiopien a connu une expansion substantielle, marquée par
lifelong benefits to individuals and playing a crucial role in cultivating
une augmentation du nombre d’universités, qui est passé de deux à
a skilled workforce capable of driving sustainable economic growth
plus de 100, et par une hausse du nombre d’étudiants, qui est passé
(Benhabib and Spiegel, 2005; Bloom et al., 2006; Chankseliani et al.,
de 48 000 à plus de 400 000. Malgré cette croissance, il existe peu de
2021). However, the literature on African higher education presents
recherches sur la relation entre l’expansion de l’enseignement supérieur
contradictory perspectives on its impact on economic growth (Glewwe
et la croissance économique, et les quelques études quantitatives qui
et al., 2004; Oketch and Schendel, 2014). Similarly, the few studies on
ont été entreprises ont donné des résultats incohérents. Cette étude
Ethiopia’s higher education system report inconsistent findings (Borojo
s’appuie sur la théorie de la croissance économique endogène, utilise
and Yushi, 2015; Mengesha and Singh, 2022).
le modèle ARDL (Autoregressive Distributive Lag) et utilise les données
Ethiopia embarked on its modern or secular higher education
de la Banque mondiale de 1991 à 2021 pour explorer la relation
journey by establishing the University College of Addis Ababa in
entre la croissance économique (mesurée par le PIB par habitant) et
December 1950. It initially enrolled fewer than 80 students and was
l’expansion de l’enseignement supérieur (représentée par le nombre
staffed by a small group of non-Ethiopian teachers (Habte et al., 1963).
brut d’inscriptions dans l’enseignement supérieur). Contrairement aux
In the early 1960s, the university received its Charter as a four-year
hypothèses dominantes, l’étude a révélé une association non significative
degree-granting institution. Students enrollment increased to more
entre le développement de l’enseignement supérieur et la croissance
than 450, with 60 staff members, including 20 Ethiopians (Ibid). By
économique. Contrairement à d’autres études, elle s’est appuyée sur une
1970, the university’s student body had expanded to 6 000, with 437
analyse qualitative pour mettre au jour les facteurs contributifs potentiels
faculty members, including 228 expatriates (Amare, 1988). During the
et a identifié une qualité d’enseignement médiocre, une autonomie
Dergue regime (1974-1991), the higher education system experienced
limitée des universités et une liberté académique restreinte comme étant
modest expansion, with the establishment of postgraduate schools
des problèmes cruciaux. Il est recommandé aux décideurs politiques
and colleges across various regions. In the 1982/83 academic year,
des pays qui connaissent une expansion similaire de l’enseignement
enrollment reached 16 117 (Ibid). However, Ethiopian higher education’s
supérieur de ne pas se concentrer uniquement sur l’augmentation du
true massification began in the late 1990s under the Ethiopian People’s
nombre d’étudiants, mais de donner la priorité à l’amélioration de la
Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) (1991-2018) and the current
qualité de l’enseignement, à l’octroi d’une plus grande autonomie aux
regime. Enrollment skyrocketed from 48 000 in 1990 to more than 400
universités et à la garantie de la liberté académique. Ces facteurs sont
000 in 2022, with a significant increase in the number of public and
essentiels pour que l’enseignement supérieur contribue efficacement à
private higher education institutions from two in 1990 to more than
la croissance économique.
100 in 2022.
The EPRDF’s policy documents stated that the primary objective of
Mots clés : Modèle autorégressif à retardement distribué (ARDL),
the expansion of higher education was to contribute to the country’s
expansion de l’enseignement supérieur, croissance économique,
economic development within the framework of the Agricultural
Éthiopie.
Development Led Industrialization (ADLI) development strategy. The
government aimed to raise the higher education gross enrolment ratio
to 22% to elevate Ethiopia’s status to that of a middle-income country by
2025 (FDRE, 2012; MOE, 2010).
14 Paulos C. Tsegaw The Nexus Between Higher Education Expansion and Economic Growth in Ethiopia: 15
An Empirical Examination

involved a systematic review and synthesis of existing literature.

Qualitative studies on the Ethiopian higher education system This article is organised as follows: Following the introduction, it
have yielded inconsistent findings. While some of these note that its presents a review of the overall and empirical literature. This is followed
expansion has led to the introduction of new academic programmes at by a discussion on the quantitative methodology and the findings of
both graduate and undergraduate levels, increased enrollment of female the econometric analysis. The final part employs a qualitative approach
students, expanded access to citizens residing outside the capital city, to investigate the factors contributing to the insignificant relationship
the establishment of supportive institutions, and enhanced employment between higher education and economic growth in Ethiopia.
opportunities for academic staff (Yallew, 2020; Areaya, 2010; Tessema,
2009), others highlight various interconnected challenges. These include Literature Review
quality issues, a shortage of qualified academic staff, sub-standard
General Literature
teaching and learning, poor research output, insufficient financial
Higher education has a rich history in many developed economies and
and material resources, a lack of autonomy, and limited academic
is widely recognised for its significant contribution to economic growth
freedom (Semela and Ayalew, 2008; Leqa, 2009; Tessema, 2009;
(Schultz, 1961; Barro and Lee, 1993; Hanushek and WoBmann, 2010).
Semela 2011; Bishaw and Melesse, 2017; Areaya, 2010; Woldegiyorgis,
Numerous studies have demonstrated that it produces a highly educated
2023). Furthermore, Tamrat and Teferra (2019) note that private higher
workforce equipped with advanced knowledge and skills and capable
institutions face financial constraints, regulatory restrictions, and related
of driving innovation and applying newly developed technologies. Such
external challenges.
employees are regarded as agents of change who respond to competition
Few quantitative or econometric analyses have empirically examined
and technological advancements and address growing consumer
the impact of higher education on Ethiopia’s economic growth and those
demand for new products (Sianesi and Van Reenen, 2003; Santiago,
that exist produced mixed results. For instance, a World Bank study
2008; Pillay, 2011).
in 1996 showed that higher education made a significant economic
Since the late 1950s, economists have explored the relationship
contribution, with its private and social rates of return standing at
between higher education and economic development using different
approximately 25% and 14%, respectively (Saint, 2004). Mengesha and
theoretical models. The two prominent models in this regard are the
Singh (2022) argued that the secondary and higher education sub-sectors
augmented neoclassical growth theory (Romer, 1990; Mankiw et al.,
positively impacted economic growth. In contrast, Borojo and Yushi
1992) and the endogenous growth theory (Lucas, 1988). They posit that
(2015) concluded that higher education enrollment has an insignificant
education has a positive effect on economic growth and attest to its role
effect on economic growth in both the long and the short run.
in long-term growth by increasing an economy’s innovative capacity
This brief review highlights the need for further research to inform
and facilitating the transmission and diffusion of knowledge required to
policy decisions regarding the future of higher education in Ethiopia.
implement new technologies (Benhabib and Spiegel, 2005).
Moreover, quantitative and qualitative approaches should be combined
Academics, researchers, national governments, and donors in
to offer a comprehensive empirical analysis of this issue.
developed countries have debated the relationship between education
Against this background, the study on which this article is based
and economic growth. Key issues include which level of education
employed quantitative and qualitative approaches. On the quantitative
(primary, secondary, or tertiary) should be targeted for development;
front, the ARDL bounds test model was employed to examine the level
effective budget allocations between these levels; designing education
of co-integration between higher education (proxied by the gross tertiary
policies; and examining the association among educational expenditure,
education enrollment ratio) and economic growth (proxied by Gross
enrollment, and GDP. The literature on higher education in developing
Domestic Product (GDP) per capita) in Ethiopia. The qualitative approach
16 Paulos C. Tsegaw The Nexus Between Higher Education Expansion and Economic Growth in Ethiopia: 17
An Empirical Examination

economies also proposes several theories that suggest a symbiotic higher education in developing economies. They highlight that it fosters
relationship between higher education and economic growth/ human capacity-building, endogenous economic development, broader
development in these countries. Bloom et al. (2005) and Oketch and economic and non-economic development outcomes, and improvements
Schendel (2014) identify the following four significant theories: in public and private institutions by producing competent graduates.
However, it should be noted that the validity of these theories relies on
A) The human capital theory suggests that higher education
several fundamental assumptions. As set out by Bloom et al. (2005), the
generates both private and social returns through higher
World Bank (2009), and Oketch and Schendel (2014), they include:
earnings for individuals and contributes to national economic
growth due to increased productivity. This theory justified the • Quality education in higher education institutions;
expansion of higher education in developing economies during • Sufficient access to primary and secondary education and quality
the early post-colonial period, particularly from the 1960s to the education at both levels;
early 1980s. • Adequately-prepared secondary school graduates to enter higher
B) The endogenous growth theory suggests that in the context education institutions;
of a knowledge economy, highly-skilled workers are crucial • Equal access to higher education, regardless of income, gender,
for economic growth as they play a fundamental role in religion, ethnicity, place of residence (urban/rural) and other
adapting and transferring technology. It argues that higher societal identities;
education produces positive externalities such as improved • Qualified faculty and staff with adequate academic resources to
health, increased longevity, enhanced cognitive development produce knowledgeable graduates;
in children, and reduced family size, contributing to workforce • High-quality research to generate new knowledge and faculty
productivity and economic growth. members’ ability to disseminate such knowledge to students;
C) The capability approach to development highlights the power of and
higher education in enhancing capabilities within a population. • Relatively higher budget allocations for higher education.
It posits that higher education allows students to pursue diverse
This article focuses on how the absence of these conditions affects
objectives, including employment, strengthening citizenship,
the long- and short-term relationship between higher education and
and ethical commitment to society. This approach assumes that
economic growth in Ethiopia.
expanding higher education leads to broader social impacts,
such as strengthening democracy, promoting social cohesion,
Empirical Literature
and fostering good governance, which in turn contribute to
Numerous empirical studies have examined the relationship between
economic growth.
education and economic growth using different variables to measure
D) Institutional theory considers higher education’s impact on
education or human capital, including enrollment rates; average years
a wide range of institutions or collectives, including formal
of schooling; education quality and systems; cognitive skills such as
organisations and the social norms governing behaviour.
mathematics and science; and government spending on education as a
It suggests that higher education can play a crucial role in
percentage of GDP.
producing skilled individuals who are able to build improved
Unlike the consensus regarding the general theoretical approaches
institutions, contributing to various social, political, and
to the association between higher education and economic growth,
economic development outcomes.
empirical studies in developing and developed economies have produced
These four theories collectively justify the significance and value of inconsistent and controversial results. Benosa and Zotou (2013) point to
18 Paulos C. Tsegaw The Nexus Between Higher Education Expansion and Economic Growth in Ethiopia: 19
An Empirical Examination

different and sometimes conflicting empirical findings in cross-country economic growth.

and country-specific analyses of the education-growth nexus. Similarly, Similar studies on higher education in specific African countries
Temple (2001) asserts that despite robust theoretical predictions, the have produced conflicting findings. For example, Omodero and
empirical evidence on the long-term relationship between education and Nwangwa (2020) found no causality effect between the higher education
economic growth has been inconclusive. Hanushek and Woessmann gross enrollment ratio and economic growth, and vice versa in Nigeria.
(2009) also point to debate on the most appropriate indicators to Bloom et al. (2005) suggested that higher education in sub-Saharan
measure education or human capital and suggest the use of cognitive Africa may accelerate technological diffusion, narrow knowledge gaps,
skills rather than years of schooling. The authors (Ibid: 17) note that ameliorate poverty, and maximise the region’s potential for economic
“cognitive skills generated in the school system lead to higher long run growth. Similarly, Valero and Van Reenen (2019) found that an increase
growth of economies”. in the number of universities is associated with higher GDP per capita
Studies on the relationship between higher education and economic in a region. Other studies identified reverse causality, where economic
development in sub-Saharan Africa have also produced inconsistent growth leads to increased enrollment in higher education (Teal, 2011).
findings. While some establish no direct and significant relationship, Kyaw and Macdonald (2009) highlighted the difficulty of establishing
others found a positive and significant association. For example, Barro’s a relationship between higher education and economic growth due to
(1996) cross-country study that included some sub-Saharan African low enrollment rates in tertiary education in many sub-Saharan African
countries found that male educational attainment, particularly at countries. As discussed earlier, quantitative studies on Ethiopia also
secondary and tertiary levels, significantly positively affected growth. produced mixed results.
He estimated that an additional year of male upper-level schooling This review of the empirical research highlights the need for more
raises the growth rate by a substantial 1.2 percentage points per annum. country-based and cross-country studies to draw conclusive results and
Psacharopoulos (1996) concluded that the private and social rates of inform higher education policies, especially in developing countries.
return on investment in primary education were higher than those for Our study focused on Ethiopia, a developing African economy that is
secondary and higher education, suggesting that higher education is heavily investing in its higher education system.
less relevant to economic growth than primary education. The findings
of this study influenced national governments and donors to invest less Methodology
in higher education until they were challenged by Teal (2011) and others
The study was guided by endogenous growth theory that focuses on the
scholars.
factors and mechanisms that drive long-term economic growth within
Oketch and Schendel’s (2014) review of 25 studies on the relationship
a country. One of its central assumptions is that economic growth is
between higher education and economic growth in sub-Saharan Africa,
primarily facilitated by internal processes inherent to the system itself.
South Asia, and Southeast Asia also produced inconsistent findings.
This theory was relevant as it emphasises education as a vehicle for
Some of the studies included in the review suggested that primary
human capital accumulation and treats it as a factor of production
and secondary education yield greater economic benefits than higher
besides labour and capital (Lucas, 1988). Lucas argued that the labour
education in lower-income countries and pointed to the lack of a
force’s improved educational attainments enhance productivity and in
significant relationship between the number of university graduates and
turn, national economic performance (Ibid.).
economic growth. In contrast, others concluded that expanding higher
The study employed time series econometric models that combine
education in African countries increases the growth rate of per capita
different variables to assess the relationship between higher education
income and contributes to economic growth. Yet other studies found
and economic growth. The analysis considered the World Bank dataset
that aid for higher education in middle-income countries stimulates
20 Paulos C. Tsegaw The Nexus Between Higher Education Expansion and Economic Growth in Ethiopia: 21
An Empirical Examination

from 1991 to 2021, focusing on Ethiopia’s GDP per capita, Gross Fixed to have positive signs. The model suggests that a country’s economic
Capital Formation, Labour Force Participation, and Gross Tertiary growth, as measured by GDP per capita, is positively influenced by
Education Enrollment. Multiple imputation techniques were employed increases in capital investment, labour force participation, and tertiary
to estimate the missing values where data was missing for specific years. education enrollment.
The selection of 1991 as the starting point was informed by the fact that
• Capital (Gross Fixed Capital Formation): This variable represents
it marked the beginning of the EPRDF regime after overthrowing the
the total value of all new fixed investment made in a country’s
Dergue regime and the launch of massification of the country higher
physical assets such as infrastructure, machinery, and buildings.
education system. As noted earlier, human capital can be measured
A positive relationship implies that as the level of capital
using enrollment rates; average years of schooling; education quality
investment increases, the model predicts that the country’s
and systems; cognitive skills or international test scores such as in
GDP will also increase. This aligns with the economic theory
mathematics and science; and government spending on education
that suggests that adequate capital accumulation contributes to
as a percentage of GDP. This study used enrollment rates in higher
economic growth.
education as this data is relatively readily available in Ethiopia.
• Labour (Labour Force Participation): This variable represents the
Many studies on economic development measure capital using
percentage of the working-age population that is either employed
Gross Fixed Capital Formation that measures the net increase in physical
or actively seeking employment. A positive relationship suggests
assets over a certain period, Capital Stock (the accumulated value
that an increase in labour force participation is associated with
of physical assets used in production), and Investment Expenditure
an increase in GDP. This is in line with the idea that a larger and
(spending on new physical capital). This study employed Gross Fixed
more engaged workforce can contribute to economic output.
Capital Formation that is a common measure in many studies.
• Human Capital (Tertiary Education Enrollment): Tertiary
The specified econometric model incorporates a dependent variable,
education enrollment is often used as a proxy for the level of human
GDP Per Capita (GDP) along with three independent variables: Gross
capital in a country. Human capital refers to the workforce’s skills,
Fixed Capital Formation (FC), Labour force Participation (LR), and Gross
knowledge, and expertise. A positive relationship indicates that as
Tertiary Education Enrollment Ratio (TE). Based on the theoretical
more individuals enroll in tertiary education (such as universities
premise and connecting GDP, FC, LR, and TE, the formulated model
and colleges), the model predicts a positive impact on GDP. This
is as follows:
aligns with the notion that a well-educated and skilled population
is a crucial driver of economic development.
GDP = β0 + β1FCt + β2LRt + β3TEt + µt
Where: As pointed out in the theoretical discussion, the above model reflects a
GDP = Gross Domestic Product Per Capita holistic view of economic development that considers both physical and
FC = Gross Fixed Capital Formation human capital as essential contributors to a nation’s prosperity. However,
LR = Labour Force Participation rate it is important to note that while the model indicates associations,
TE = Higher Education Enrollment Ratio causation is a complex issue in economics, and other factors not included
µt = Error term in the model may also influence variations in GDP.

Empirical Model
All the variables in the model have the subscript “t” representing
The study employed the Autoregressive Distributive Lag (ARDL)-
different periods (t = 1, 2, ..., t). The parameter β0 represents the intercept
Bounds Testing model for co-integration (Pesaran et al., 2001) to
term, while β1, β2, and β3 denote the slope coefficients, all expected
22 Paulos C. Tsegaw The Nexus Between Higher Education Expansion and Economic Growth in Ethiopia: 23
An Empirical Examination

empirically investigate the relationship among the variables in the model Table 1: Result of the unit root tests
specified above. It was selected due to its applicability to small sample Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) Phillips-Perron (PP)
sizes and its ability to handle endogenous regressors that are integrated GDP (I(0)) -0.239406(0.9227) 0.261494(0.9722)
of order one [I(1)] or order zero [I(0)] (Ibid). It suited the dataset used,
GDP (I(1)) -3.570648(0.0498) -3.690668 (0.0387)
which comprised a relatively small number of variables, 30 years of data,
FC (I(0)) -1.710656 (0.4162) -1.695620(0.4235)
and one country, with endogenous variables and integrated of order one
FC (I(1)) -5.985072 (0.0000) -5.985272 (0.0000)
(I(1)).
The ARDL bounds test is employed to examine the presence of a LB (I(0)) -1.844583 (0.6584) -2.074532 (0.5391)

long-run equilibrium relationship among variables and estimate the LB (I(I)) -4.810182 (0.0029) -4.712224 (0.0037)
associated short-run dynamics (Pesaran et al., 2001). The following TE I(0) -1.801414 (0.6797) -0.235690 (0.962)
standard procedures are followed: First, a unit root test is conducted TE I(1) -3.133240 (0.0347) -3.096022(0.0376)
to assess the stationarity of the variables and ensure that none are
integrated at a level of two or more. Second, the lag-length criteria are Table 1 displays the unit root test results, presenting the T-statistics
determined. Third, the co-integration test based on the bounds test and corresponding P-values (in parentheses) calculated using EViews
is applied to examine long- and short-run relationships between the 12 software. The result of the unit root tests indicates that none of the
variables. Lastly, residual and stability diagnostic tests are performed variables are stationary at their levels, but after taking the first difference,
to assess the reliability of the econometric model. EViews 12 statistical all variables become stationary. Consequently, all variables are integrated
software was used to analyse the data and administer the required tests. of order one (I(1)).

Unit Root Test: Testing for stationarity is crucial as many time series Lag-Length Criteria: Based on the unit root test results, which establish
variables exhibit unit roots or follow a random walk pattern (i.e., non- that all variables are integrated of order one, it is possible to apply the
stationary) over time, primarily driven by stochastic trends. Such ARDL model. However, prior to this, it is essential to determine the
trended time series can potentially lead to spurious regression results optimal lag length. Five selection criteria are commonly employed to
and undermine the policy implications (Engle and Granger, 1987). In identify the suitable lag order for the model. In this study, EViews 12
this study, the unit root properties of the variables were tested using automatically selected the appropriate lag length for the model.
the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) and Phillips-Perron (PP) unit
root tests. Variables that exhibit unit roots at the level are considered Table 2: Lag-length Criteria
integrated of order zero (I(0)), while those that become stationary after Lag LogL LR FPE AIC SC HQ
first differencing are regarded as integrated of order one (I(1))
0 5.762024 NA 1.05e-05 -0.117468 0.069358 -0.057701

1 218.9401 355.2967 2.07e-11 -13.26267 -12.32854* -12.96383

2 243.3695 34.20126* 1.26e-11* -13.82464* -12.14320 -13.28673*

Table 2 indicates the lag order selected by the five criteria (LR: sequential
modified LR test statistic; FPE: Final prediction error; AIC: Akaike
information criterion; SC: Schwarz information criterion; HQ: Hannan-
Quinn information criterion). Accordingly, the four criteria selected a
24 Paulos C. Tsegaw The Nexus Between Higher Education Expansion and Economic Growth in Ethiopia: 25
An Empirical Examination

lag length of two years. This lag length was used to run all the required Table 4: Result of ARDL Long Run Form and Bounds Test (Long Run Model)
ARDL measures and diagnostic tests. Dependent variable = GDP
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
Co-integration Test: The assessment of co-integration is a crucial step
FC 0.557186 0.261279 2.132535 0.0478
to determine if a meaningful long-run relationship exists among the
LB 0.690240 1.109802 0.621948 0.5422
variables (Pesaran et al., 2001). This study applied the selected lag length
TE -0.119485 0.428597 -0.278781 0.7838
and conducted the co-integration test within the framework of the ARDL
bounds test. Three analytical tests were considered: The F-Bounds, long-
Table 4 displays the results of the long-run regression analysis. The
run co-integration, and short-run dynamics tests.
coefficients of the two variables are consistent with the predictions, except
The F-Bounds Test: The Bounds test provides F-statistics and upper and for Tertiary Education Enrollment (TE). Gross Fixed Capital Formation
lower bounds based on critical values of 1%, 2.5%, 5%, and 10%. Under (FC) positively and statistically significantly affects economic growth. The
this test, the null hypothesis is that “no long-run relationship exists” findings suggest that a 10% increase in Gross Fixed Capital Formation
between the variables. The criteria for accepting or rejecting this null leads to a GDP increase of approximately 5.57% in the long run. Labour
hypothesis are as follows: a) if the F-value exceeds the upper bound, it Force Participation positively impacts economic growth, although it is
indicates the presence of a long-run relationship; b) if the F-value falls statistically insignificant. However, higher education proxied by Tertiary
below the lower bound, it suggests the absence of a long-run relationship; Education enrollment shows a negative and statistically insignificant
c) if the F-value falls within the range of the upper and lower bounds, the association with economic growth. This finding aligns with a previous
results are inconclusive (Pesaran et al., 2001). study that highlighted the insignificant relationship between higher
education and economic growth in Ethiopia (Borojo and Yushi, 2015).
Table 3: Result of ARDL Long Run Form and Bounds Test (F- Bounds Test)
Dependent Variable D(GDP)
Short-run Co-integration Model: The ARDL model’s short-run
Null Hypothesis: No Levels relationship
dynamics enable an examination of how the variables adjust in response
to changes in the short run. The coefficient of the one-period lagged
Test statistic Value Signif. I(0) (lower bound I(1) (upper bound
critical value) critical value) error-correction term (CointEQ(-1)) measures the speed of adjustment
F-Statistics 8.642337 10% 2.72 3.77 to the co-integration relationship. The expected value for this coefficient
K 3 5% 3.23 4.38 is negative and statistically significant, and its absolute value should be
2.5% 3.69 4.89 smaller than one. These characteristics indicate a gradual convergence
1% 4.29 5.61 of the system towards long-run equilibrium values (Engle and Granger,
1987).
Table 3 presents the results of the F-Bound test, indicating that the
F-statistics exceeded the upper bounds at the four significant levels. This
means that long-run co-integration exists between the dependent and
independent variables, providing evidence of a stable relationship.

Long-run Co-integration: The ARDL model was employed to assess the

presence of a long-run relationship or co-integration between the dependent
variable and each independent variable. Table 4 presents the results.
26 Paulos C. Tsegaw The Nexus Between Higher Education Expansion and Economic Growth in Ethiopia: 27
An Empirical Examination

Table 5: Result of ARDL Error Correction Regression (Short-Run Model) economic growth in the short run. The finding also suggests that in
Dependent Variable: D(GDP) the short-run, higher education expansion is not significantly related to
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. economic growth.
C -1.223252 0.362955 -3.370256 0.0036
Residual and stability Diagnostic tests: Diagnostic tests are commonly
D(GDP(-1) 0.443903 0.105284 4.216254 0.0006
performed in econometric modeling and analysis to ensure the
D(FC) 0.579469 0.190654 3.039370 0.0384 reliability and validity of the model. Residual diagnostic tests assist in
D(LB) -1.879373 4.80880 -0.390820 0.7008 evaluating whether the model assumptions are met and if the model
D(LB (-1) 6.6848802 5.530222 1.208777 0.2433 accurately captures the underlying relationships within the data. Three
D(TE) -0.167856 0.129174 -1.299464 0.2111 diagnostic tests were conducted: normality of residuals, autocorrelation,
D(TE(-1)) -0.041820 0.150019 -0.278762 0.7838
and heteroscedasticity. A stability test was also performed. The results
of these tests, presented in Table 6 and Figure 1, confirm the soundness
CointEQ (-1)* -0.349999 0.054882 -6.377289 0.0000
and dependability of the model.

R-Squared 0.83 Table 6: Results of the Residual and stability diagnostic tests
Adjusted R- Squared 0.76 Measure Null hypothesis Value (p-values)
F-Statistics 12.28578 Jarque-Bera Normality test H0: Disturbances are 2.481858 (0.289116)
normally distributed
Prob (F-Statistics) 0.000003
Durbin-Watson Stat 2.084856 Breusch-Godfrey Serial H0: No serial correlation F-statistic: 0.975996 (0.3995)
Correlation LM te.st up to 2 lags
Chi-square: 3.339296 (0.1883)
Table 5 demonstrates that the short-run model is valid, as indicated Heteroskedasticity Test H0: Homoskedasticity F-statistics: 0.439151(0.9160)
by the negative and significant coefficient value. The Error Correction Breusch-Pagan-Godfrey
Chi-square: 6.417082 (0.8441)
Coefficient of -0.34 suggests that the model adjusts approximately 35%
of the disequilibria within one year. However, the rate of adjustment is
1.6
relatively slow.
1.2
Furthermore, Table 5 reveals that in the short run, GDP per capita
for the previous period (GDP - 1) is a significant determinant of the 0.8

current period’s GDP per capita (GDP). A 10% increase in GDP from
0.4
the previous period corresponds to an average improvement of 4.43%
0.0
in GDP per capita. This finding aligns with the endogenous growth
approach. -0.4
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
The coefficients for fixed capital formation show signs consistent
CUSUM of Square s 5% Significance
with predictions. The results indicate that a 10% increase in gross capital
formation in the short run leads to a GDP increase of approximately Figure 1: Stability test
5.79%. However, this is not the case for labour and higher education.
Similar to the long-run co-integration results, only capital proxied by
fixed capital formation exhibits a positive and significant impact on
28 Paulos C. Tsegaw The Nexus Between Higher Education Expansion and Economic Growth in Ethiopia: 29
An Empirical Examination

The above four tests confirm the suitability of our model to analyse long- or short-term relationship between higher education and
the relationship between economic growth and three independent economic growth in Ethiopia. This finding contradicts theoretical and
variables: Gross Fixed Capital Formation, Labour, and Higher Education empirical findings in many developed and developing economies. This
Enrollment. The results obtained from these tests support the validity of section examines this enigma and identifies factors that could account
the model as follows: for the insignificant and negative relationship between Ethiopia’s higher
education system and economic growth. Following the assumptions
• The Jarque-Bera normality of residuals test validates the as-
expounded in the theoretical discussion, two key challenges, namely,
sumption of normality by demonstrating that the residuals
quality education, and academic freedom and autonomy are discussed.
follow a normal distribution.
Given the influence of path dependency, it is important to briefly
• The Breusch-Godfrey Serial Correlation LM test indicates the
address the challenges confronted in earlier periods before exploring
absence of significant autocorrelation in the residuals, suggest-
the difficulties encountered in the past three decades.
ing independence.
• The Breusch-Pagan-Godfrey heteroscedasticity test reveals no Challenges Confronting Higher Education Before the EPRDF (1950-
evidence of heteroscedasticity, indicating that the assumption 1991)
of constant variance is satisfied. As noted previously, modern higher education in Ethiopia spans only
• The CUSUM stability test shows that the coefficients of the seven decades and has faced different challenges. Although the degree
model remain relatively constant over time, indicating stability. of these challenges may have differed, many persisted throughout the
three regimes that governed the country. Studies reveal that during
The results from these residual and stability diagnostic tests collectively
the imperial regime (1930-1974), they included: a) lack of coordination
confirm the reliability and validity of the model, instilling confidence in
among higher education institutions, resulting in programme
the conclusions drawn from the analysis.
duplication and inefficient utilisation of human and financial resources;
Based on the empirical analysis, it is evident that the econometric
b) disparities between the country’s human resources needs and the
model employed in this study is reliable for drawing statistical inferences
educational programmes offered by higher education institutions; c) the
regarding the relationship between higher education and economic
imbalanced composition of the student population in terms of regional,
growth in Ethiopia. The findings suggest no significant long- or short-
gender, and ethnic representation; and d) the absence of a well-defined
term effect or relationship between Ethiopian higher education and
national ideology to guide the connection between higher education and
economic growth. The following section discusses the factors that could
government development plans (Amare, 1988). The last challenge has
contribute to the lack of a significant and robust relationship between
been an issue throughout the history of Ethiopian higher education.
higher education and economic growth in Ethiopia.
During the Dergue regime (1974-1991), critical challenges included:
a) heavy government involvement in administrative and academic
Possible Factors Contributing to the Weak Association Between Higher
matters; b) revocation of universities’ Charters, which guaranteed
Education Expansion and Economic Growth
a degree of freedom and autonomy; c) mandatory indoctrination of
The literature review noted widespread recognition of higher education’s
Marxism-Leninism in all educational institutions alongside the use of
pivotal role in fostering social and economic progress. The expansion of
dialectical materialism for analysis and interpretation of subjects; d)
higher education in Ethiopia aims to produce highly-qualified graduates
limited research engagement by scholars due to resource constraints and
to drive social and economic development in the country. However, the
fears of reprisal for producing research critical of government policies;
econometric analysis conducted in this study revealed no significant
and e) inadequately qualified teaching staff (Amare, 1988). Bishaw and
30 Paulos C. Tsegaw The Nexus Between Higher Education Expansion and Economic Growth in Ethiopia: 31
An Empirical Examination

Melesse (2017) also note that the Dergue regime exerted control over quality education in higher institutions, this article focus on three key
higher education institutions through increased security surveillance, aspects: the quality of faculty, the academic preparedness of secondary
repression of dissent, mandated courses on Marxism-Leninism, school graduates entering universities, and the teaching and learning
prohibition of student organisations, the appointment of senior process.
university officers, and control of academic promotions. As briefly indicated in the literature review, in a higher education
system, the adequacy and quality of faculty are critical factors in producing
Challenges Confronting Higher Education Since the EPDRF (1991 to qualified graduates and research output. Unfortunately, the quality and
Present) composition of faculty in almost all universities were inadequate in terms
Significant changes were made to Ethiopia’s higher education system of numbers and specialisations. Areaya (2010) noted that the standard
during the EPRDF regime. The transformation became evident in the set by the Ethiopian Higher Education Relevance and Quality Agency
remarkable surge in the number of universities and student enrollment, (HERQA) on the qualification composition of teaching staff in 2008 was
leading to the massification of higher education. The system expanded 20:50:30 (Bachelor’s, Master’s, Doctorate). However, in 2009/10, the
across all regions, and the student body became more diverse. The academic staff composition across all higher education institutions was
establishment of a new legal framework governing the functioning of 42.8% Bachelor’s, 41.12% Master’s, and 8.53% Doctorate holders. He
universities was another milestone. added that 41.9% of academic staff did not qualify to teach at university
However, despite these advancements, the higher education system level.
has encountered challenges that have impeded its potential to make a A decade later, Tadesse et al. (2020) indicated that while the
substantial contribution to economic growth. Drawing on the literature, Ministry anticipated a ratio of 0:70:30 (Bachelor’s, Master’s, Doctorate),
these challenges fall under two major themes: a) quality and b) academic the qualification composition in 2017/2018 was 27% Bachelor’s, 58%
freedom and autonomy. Master’s, and 15% Doctorate holder. This was a slight improvement, but
still below the standard set by the Ministry. The challenge is, however,
A) The Quality of Education in Ethiopian Higher Education Institutions
critical in newly-opened universities where there is hasty employment of
During the EPRDF regime, the primary focus was on improving access
poorly-qualified faculty with no training in teaching methodologies and
to education across all regional states and increasing enrollment.
inadequate disciplinary education (Areaya, 2010). Moreover, teachers
Quality education was not a priority. Numerous studies conducted
generally have little voice in the policy/decision-making process in the
during this period have highlighted that the expansion of universities
higher education system (Leqa, 2009).
and the surge in student numbers harmed the quality of education.
The academic preparedness of incoming secondary school
They revealed that universities were established and their academic
completers significantly impacts the quality of higher education. A
programmes were launched without ensuring that teaching staff were
mark of 50% in the National School Leaving Certificate Examination
appropriately qualified and that essential resources such as textbooks,
is required for acceptance to higher-level institutions. Nonetheless,
reference material, libraries, computers, laboratories, lecture rooms,
a noticeable number of ill-prepared students are entering the higher
power generators, and accommodation were available (Saint, 2004;
education system. Cases in point are presented in Table 7.
Semela, 2011; Akalu, 2014). Tamrat (2023) is also of the view that the
quality of the higher education system during the EPRDF regime was
undermined by excessive politicisation, corruption, ethnic strife, poor
infrastructure and ill-prepared students, as well as ill-qualified, poorly
paid, discontented faculty. While there are several determinants of
32 Paulos C. Tsegaw The Nexus Between Higher Education Expansion and Economic Growth in Ethiopia: 33
An Empirical Examination

Table 7: Secondary school completers admitted without scoring the required marks Ministry of Education, revealed the corrupt practices and the extent
2008/9 2009/10
of deterioration in the Ethiopian education system over the past three
decades. Only 29 909 (3.3%) of the nearly one million secondary school
Number of students who sat for National 86 238 85 610
School Leaving Certificate Examination
completers who sat the examination scored 50% or more to qualify for
university admission. The Education Minister noted that the 2022/23
Total number of students who scored 31 934 (37.03%) 38 901 (45.4%)
above 50% results point to the multiple challenges the education sector has been
grappling with for an extended period. In a presentation to Parliament
Number of students assigned to public 73 111 (84.8%) 78 822 (92.0%) on 17 May 2023, the Minister revealed that, following an extensive
universities evaluation of 47 000 schools throughout the country, a staggering
85.9% of elementary and middle schools, and 70.9% of high schools,
Number of students admitted to public 41 117 (56.3%) 39 921 (50.6%)
universities without scoring minimum were found to be sub-standard (Addis Standard, News, 24 May 2023).
pass mark (50%) A similar indicator of the declining quality of higher education in
Source: Ministry of Education (2010) Ethiopia is the outcome of the recently introduced Nationwide Graduate
Exit Exams – a national exam that every potential graduate must take
Table 7 shows that more than half the students admitted to universities after completing their university education but before being awarded
during this period did not qualify for enrollment in higher institutions. their BA/BSc degree. According to a tweet by the Deputy Minister of
Similarly, Teferra (2023) notes that during the 2013/14 academic year, Education on 15 July 2023, 150 184 prospective graduates sat for the
the average score for all subjects in the national examination in Grade 12 examination in July 2023, with only 60 054 (40.65%) scoring above
was only 45.52%, signifying that more than half the students did not meet 50% (https://twitter.com/fdremoe). These results demonstrate the
the requirements for university admission. The situation becomes even magnitude of the challenge confronting the Ethiopian higher education
more alarming when considering subject-specific scores, with only 13.9% system in ensuring that graduates are adequately equipped with the
of students achieving 50% and above in physics, 37.6% in mathematics, necessary knowledge and skills.
and 36.3% in English (Ibid). The data highlights a significant gap in the The quality of teaching and learning plays a crucial role in producing
academic preparedness of secondary school completers, contributing to graduates capable of contributing to economic growth. However, many
the influx of ill-prepared students into higher education. Ethiopian universities continue to employ traditional teaching and
A concerning issue is the prevalence of students allegedly passing assessment methods and are characterised by inflexible timetables, rote
the National School Leaving Certificate examinations through corrupt learning, a rigid lesson structure and a lack of instructional material and
and unethical practices. These include allowing students to cheat administrative support (Alemu and Schulze, 2012). While efforts have
during exams and teachers providing answers to students during the been made to improve the quality of teaching and learning, they have not
examination. Tamrat (2023) highlights that this has become widespread, always yielded the desired results (Tadesse et al., 2020). The adoption of
with schools, teachers, principals, regional authorities, and politicians student-centred teaching and continuous assessment faced challenges,
implicated in encouraging such behaviour. Consequently, passing as students and teachers raised issues (Alemu and Schulze, 2012) such
national examinations has become more of a political contestation as the fact that increased enrollment was not accompanied by increased
among regional states’ political leaders than a genuine manifestation of capacity and resources, misalignment between different components of
students’ competence (Ibid.). the curriculum, assessments that are unrelated to the learning objectives
The results of the 2021/22 national secondary school-leaving of the course, and quality-assessment efforts that focused on assurance
examinations, conducted under the strict supervision of the Ethiopian rather than improvement (Semela 2011; Tadesse, 2014).
34 Paulos C. Tsegaw The Nexus Between Higher Education Expansion and Economic Growth in Ethiopia: 35
An Empirical Examination

The above challenges apply to both graduate and undergraduate Asgedom and Hagos (2016) highlight that the lack of academic
programmes. Typical issues in graduate programmes include the lack freedom has excluded faculty from decision-making, resulting in a lack of
of adequate guidance and support for graduate students when working commitment to university objectives and research collaboration. Various
on their research papers, which results in plagiarism and poor-quality factors contribute to this situation, including the fear of harsh retribution
essays and theses. for criticising government policies, inadequate research facilities, heavy
teaching workloads, limited access to research funds, and bureaucratic
B) Academic freedom and Autonomy in Ethiopian Higher Education financial management systems (Assefa, 2007). This has resulted in low
Institutions levels of research within universities, limiting the production of local
The 2003 Education Proclamation grants Ethiopian higher education knowledge, hindering critical thinking among faculty and students, and
institutions autonomy to manage their administrative and academic undermining the symbiotic relationship between research and teaching,
affairs and also contains provisions on academic freedom. However, research and policy, and research and development.
various studies note that interventions by the ruling party undermine Another alarming manifestation of the lack of academic freedom is
the autonomy and academic freedom of faculty, staff, and students. the prohibition on faculty and staff forming associations and negotiating
This section discusses two interrelated issues: the erosion of faculty, their conditions of service, including salaries, benefits, privileges, and
staff, and students’ academic freedom and the denial of universities’ workloads. This has exacerbated the shortage of qualified teachers
autonomy. As asserted by Saint (2004), minimal interference from the and researchers as it has contributed to significant brain drain. It also
state is necessary for universities to fulfill their mandate of contributing impacts job satisfaction and overall commitment to their roles within
to national development. the university and discourages talented educators and researchers from
Erosion of faculty, staff, and students’ academic freedom: The remaining in the academic sector, losing valuable expertise and skills
academic freedom of faculty, staff, and students has been restricted in (Assefa, 2007; Akalu, 2014; Asgedom and Hagos, 2016). While precise
Ethiopian universities for the past 30 years. Assefa (2007) highlights data on this phenomenon is not available, it is evident that a considerable
disturbing incidents since January 1993, including campus raids by the number of faculty members that travelled abroad for seminars and
police, beatings, extrajudicial killings, mass arrests of students, dismissal advanced education decided not to return, primarily because of the lack
of staff and students without due process or valid reasons, prolonged of academic freedom.
campus occupation by the security forces, and disruption of classes. He
adds that the three major universities – Addis Ababa, Haramaya, and The Loss of Higher Education Institutional Autonomy: Ethiopian
Jimma – are marked by a pervasive sense of insecurity among students, higher education institutions’ lack of autonomy in managing their
faculty, and staff. Zeleza (2013) documented arbitrary dismissal of academic and administrative affairs has limited their ability to make
faculty, including 40 professors in 1993 and the lack of tenure. Faculty independent decisions based on their unique needs and capacity. Assefa
involved in human rights activism faced arrest, and government cadres (2007) notes that, while the Higher Education Proclamation (351/2003)
assumed control of all leadership positions within Ethiopian higher makes provision for charters, universities do not have such. He adds
education institutions, raising serious questions about institutional that the government’s heavy involvement is evident in its interference
independence and academic freedom (Ibid). The lack of academic in admission to graduate and undergraduate programmes, curriculum
freedom and autonomy negatively impact research output, lead to brain development, the establishment of new academic programmes,
drain, and hamper academic and administrative leadership’s day-to-day human resources management, financial management, and university
operations. leadership appointments. Public universities have limited power in
decisions regarding student admission and placement. The governing
36 Paulos C. Tsegaw The Nexus Between Higher Education Expansion and Economic Growth in Ethiopia: 37
An Empirical Examination

party recruits incoming students and determines the number of Ethiopia’s private higher education institutions are not immune to
admissions to specific colleges or fields of study (Kahsay, 2012). For government regulations. As highlighted by Tamrat and Teferra (2019),
instance, prior to the 2019/20 academic year, universities were required they face numerous challenges, including a number of regulatory
to place 70% of their students in engineering and natural sciences restrictions that limit the courses and programmes they offer. They also
and 30% in humanities and social sciences. This recently changed to encounter financial and operational hurdles due to frequent and unstable
60% and 40%, respectively. Moreover, decisions regarding curriculum regulations imposed by the ruling party. The shortage of qualified faculty
revision, establishing and closing academic programmes, and the launch and an increasing focus on the profit motive hinder the production of
of new graduate programmes are made by political leaders without graduates capable of supporting the country’s economic development
due consideration of the resources and capacity available at individual (Ibid). These and related challenges have impeded the growth and
universities (Saint, 2004; Melu, 2016). development of private higher education institutions in Ethiopia,
The lack of autonomy is also reflected in the appointment of hindering their ability to offer diverse and high-quality programmes and
university leadership. Studies (Melu, 2016; Akalu, 2014) point to the produce skilled graduates.
lack of clear guidelines or procedures for such appointments. It would The study’s quantitative analysis and the above discussion reveal two
seem that, in many cases, political affiliations and connections to local interrelated factors that contribute to the lack of a significant long- and
and regional state political leaders play a significant role in university short-range relationship between higher education and economic growth
leadership appointments rather than merit. Party control has also been in Ethiopia. The first is that the quality of education is undermined by
a feature of university governance, with the ruling party infiltrating various factors, including staff shortages and faculty’s lack of appropriate
universities by recruiting faculty as members and deploying its top qualifications, the ill-preparedness of secondary school graduates
officials to universities’ governance structures. This has resulted in a lack entering universities, and the failure to embrace modern teaching and
of visionary leadership within higher education institutions, hindering learning approaches. The second is the restrictions imposed on students
their ability to promote quality enhancement (Saint, 2004). Centralised and staff’s academic freedom and universities’ autonomy.
control and political influence have led to challenges in pursuing
academic excellence and producing graduates that can contribute to Conclusion
national development.
Based on an empirical investigation, the study points to the lack of a
Ethiopia’s universities depend entirely on state funding for their
long- and short-term significant relationship between Ethiopia’s higher
recurrent and capital investment. No charter or other government
education expansion and economic growth. This is due to two main
policies empower them to implement programmes to self-finance
factors, namely, the declining quality of higher education in the country,
their operations. Studies also indicate that universities do not have the
and the denial of university autonomy and academic freedom.
autonomy to set salaries or link remuneration to performance (Saint,
The study’s results are preliminary and they could be complemented
2004). This has limited their ability to attract and retain top talent, as
and triangulated by conducting similar studies using indicators like
they cannot offer competitive salaries based on individual merit and
international test scores and government expenditure on tertiary
performance. It has also undermined their capacity to implement
education, and surveys that measure the challenges identified. Based on
incentive programmes that would motivate faculty and staff to excel and
the findings, the following implications can be identified:
contribute to the institution’s advancement (Kahsay, 2012, Akalu, 2014,
This study reinforces the existing literature that highlights the
Melu, 2016). Moreover, it has prevented institutions from acquiring
essential factors required to establish a robust relationship between
necessary teaching and learning infrastructure.
higher education and economic growth. It confirms that merely
38 Paulos C. Tsegaw The Nexus Between Higher Education Expansion and Economic Growth in Ethiopia: 39
An Empirical Examination

expanding higher education is insufficient to make a meaningful Areaya, S. (2010). Tension between massification and intensification
contribution to economic growth. Instead, equal attention should be reforms and implications for teaching and learning in Ethiopian
devoted to enhancing the quality of faculty, incoming students, and the public universities. Journal of Higher Education in Africa/Revue de
teaching and learning process. Autonomy and academic freedom are l’enseignement supérieur en Afrique 8(2), 93-115.
also essential. Barro, R. J. (1996). Democracy and growth. Journal of Economic Growth
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lessons to those that focus solely on increasing enrollment without educational attainment. Journal of Monetary Economics 32, 363-394.
adequately considering the factors discussed in this article. The results Benhabib, J., and Spiegel, M. M. (2005). Human capital and technology
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Solomon Gebreyohans Gebru, Jef C. Verhoeven and Kurt De Wit
Boon or bandwagon in light of quality improvement? Journal of
Abstract
Higher Education in Africa/Revue de l’enseignement supérieur en
In the wake of the Bologna Process, West Africa implemented the
Afrique 12(2), 131-157.
‘Licence, Maîtrise, Doctorat’ (LMD) system. What views of LMD are
Teal, F. (2011). Higher education and economic development in Africa:
held by West African scholars who studied the stakeholders of this
A review of channels and interactions. Journal of African Economies
process? This article analyses the relevant literature available on Google
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Scholar and Web of Science from a perspective of policy borrowing
Temple, J. R. W. (2001). Generalizations that aren’t? Evidence on
or appropriation. The analysis shows that all the authors report the
education and growth. European Economic Review 45(4-6), 905-918.
transition to the formal LMD structure, but that not all expectations of
Tessema, K. A. (2009). The unfolding trends and consequences of
this process (e.g., improvements in teaching or management) have been
expanding higher education in Ethiopia: Massive universities,
realised. Further research is suggested, including a longitudinal study
massive challenges. Higher Education Quarterly 63(1), 29-45.
involving different countries and universities to obtain a clearer picture
Valero, A., and Van Reenen, J. (2019). The economic impact of
of the level of adaptation/adoption and outcomes of LMD in West Africa.
universities: Evidence from across the globe. Economics of Education
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Key words: Bologna process, LMD, West Africa, policy borrowing, higher
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education policy, education innovation
from the developmental state perspective. Bahir Dar Journal of
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Résumé:
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Dans le sillage du processus de Bologne, l’Afrique de l’Ouest a mis en
SSA / AFTHD Washington D.C. World Bank.
place le système “ Licence, Maîtrise, Doctorat “ (LMD). Quels sont les
Yallew, A. (2020). Higher Education in Ethiopia: Recent Developments and
points de vue sur le LMD des chercheurs ouest-africains qui ont étudié
Challenges. AfricArXiv Preprints.
les acteurs de ce processus ? Cet article analyse la littérature pertinente
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disponible sur Google Scholar et Web of Science dans une perspective
Government, globalization, governance and gender. Journal of
d’emprunt ou d’appropriation de politiques. L’analyse montre que tous
Higher Education in Africa 1(1), 149-194.
les auteurs font état de la transition vers la structure LMD formelle, mais
que toutes les attentes de ce processus (par exemple, les améliorations de
l’enseignement ou de la gestion) n’ont pas été réalisées. Des recherches
supplémentaires sont suggérées, notamment une étude longitudinale
impliquant différents pays et universités afin d’obtenir une image plus

ABOUT THE AUTHORS: solomon gebreyohans gebru, email: solomon.gebru@

kuleuven.be, jef c. verhoeven, email: [email protected] and kurt de wit,
email: [email protected]