Global warming refers to the rising average temperature of Earth's atmosphere and oceans and its projected continuation.

In the last 100 years, Earth's average surface temperature increased by about 0.8 C (1.4 F) with about two thirds of the increase occurring over just the last three decades.[2] Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and scientists are more than 90% certain most of it is caused by increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases produced by human activities such asdeforestation and burning fossil fuels.[3][4][5][6] These findings are recognized by the national science academies of all the major industrialized countries.[7][A] Climate model projections are summarized in the 2007 Fourth Assessment Report(AR4) by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). They indicate that during the 21st century the global surface temperature is likely to rise a further 1.1 to 2.9 C (2 to 5.2 F) for their lowest emissions scenario and 2.4 to 6.4 C (4.3 to 11.5 F) for their highest.[8] The ranges of these estimates arise from the use of models with differing sensitivity to greenhouse gas concentrations.[9][10] An increase in global temperature will cause sea levels to rise and will change the amount and pattern of precipitation, and a probable expansion of subtropicaldeserts.[11] Warming is expected to be strongest in the Arctic and would be associated with continuing retreat of glaciers, permafrost and sea ice. Other likely effects of the warming include more frequent occurrence of extreme weather events including heat waves, droughts and heavy rainfall events, species extinctions due to shifting temperature regimes, and changes in crop yields. Warming and related changes will vary from region to region around the globe, with projections being more robust in some areas than others.[12] In a 4 C world[clarification needed], the limits for human adaptation are likely to be exceeded in many parts of the world, while the limits for adaptation for natural systems would largely be exceeded throughout the world. Hence, the ecosystem services upon which human livelihoods depend would not be preserved.[13] Most countries are parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), [14] whose ultimate objective is to prevent "dangerous" anthropogenic (i.e., human-induced) climate change. [15] Parties to the UNFCCC have adopted a range of policies designed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions[16]:10[17][18][19]:9 and to assist in adaptation to global warming.[16]:13[19]:10[20][21]Parties to the UNFCCC have agreed that deep cuts in emissions are required,[22] and that future global warming should be limited to below 2.0 C (3.6 F) relative to the pre-industrial level.[22][B] 2011 analyses by the United Nations Environment Programme[23]and International Energy Agency[24] suggest that current efforts to reduce emissions may be inadequately stringent to meet the UNFCCC's 2 C target.

Observed temperature changes

Main article: Instrumental temperature record

Two millennia of mean surface temperatures according to different reconstructions from climate proxies, each smoothed on a decadal scale, with the instrumental temperature record overlaid in black.

Evidence for warming of the climate system includes observed increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global average sea level.[25][26][27] The Earth's average surface temperature, expressed as a linear trend, rose by 0.740.18 C over the period 19062005. The rate of warming over the last half of that period was almost double that for the period as a whole (0.130.03 C per decade, versus 0.070.02 C per decade). The urban heat island effect is very small, estimated to account for less than 0.002 C of warming per decade since 1900.[28] Temperatures in the lower troposphere have increased between 0.13 and 0.22 C (0.22 and 0.4 F) per decade since 1979, according to satellite temperature measurements. Climate proxies show the temperature to have been relatively stable over the one or two thousand years before 1850, with regionally varying fluctuations such as the Medieval Warm Period and the Little Ice Age.[29] Recent estimates by NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) and theNational Climatic Data Center show that 2005 and 2010 tied for the planet's warmest year since reliable, widespread instrumental measurements became available in the late 19th century, exceeding 1998 by a few hundredths of a degree.[30] [31][32] Current estimates by the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) show 2005 as the second warmest year, behind 1998 with 2003 and 2010 tied for third warmest year, however, the error estimate for individual years ... is at least ten times larger than the differences between these three years.[33] The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) statement on the status of the global climate in 2010 explains that, The 2010 nominal value of +0.53 C ranks just ahead of those of 2005 (+0.52 C) and 1998 (+0.51 C), although the differences between the three years are not statistically significant...[34] Temperatures in 1998 were unusually warm because the strongest El Nio in the past century occurred during that year.[35]Global temperature is subject to short-term fluctuations that overlay long term trends and can temporarily mask them. The relative stability in temperature from 2002 to 2009 is consistent with such an episode.[36][37] Temperature changes vary over the globe. Since 1979, land temperatures have increased about twice as fast as ocean temperatures (0.25 C per decade against 0.13 C per decade).[38] Ocean temperatures increase more slowly than land temperatures because of the larger effective heat capacity of the oceans and because the ocean loses more heat by evaporation.[39] The Northern Hemisphere warms faster than the Southern Hemisphere because it has more land and because it has extensive areas of seasonal snow and sea-ice cover subject to ice-albedo feedback. Although more greenhouse gases are emitted in the Northern than Southern Hemisphere this does not contribute to the difference in warming because the major greenhouse gases persist long enough to mix between hemispheres.[40] The thermal inertia of the oceans and slow responses of other indirect effects mean that climate can take centuries or longer to adjust to changes in forcing. Climate commitment studies indicate that even if greenhouse gases were stabilized at 2000 levels, a further warming of about 0.5 C (0.9 F) would still occur.[41]

Initial causes of temperature changes (external forcings)

Greenhouse effect schematic showing energy flows between space, the atmosphere, and earth's surface. Energy exchanges are expressed in watts per square meter (W/m2).

This graph, known as the "Keeling Curve", shows the long-term increase of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations from 19582008. Monthly CO2measurements display seasonal oscillations in an upward trend; each year's maximum occurs during the Northern Hemisphere's late spring, and declines during its growing season as plants remove some atmospheric CO2.

External forcing refers to processes external to the climate system (though not necessarily external to Earth) that influence climate. Climate responds to several types of external forcing, such as radiative forcing due to changes in atmospheric composition (mainlygreenhouse gas concentrations), changes in solar luminosity, volcanic eruptions, andvariations in Earth's orbit around the Sun.*[42]:0 Attribution of recent climate changefocuses on the first three types of forcing. Orbital cycles vary slowly over tens of thousands of years and at present are in an overall cooling trend which would be expected to lead towards an ice age, but the 20th century instrumental temperature record shows a sudden rise in global temperatures.[43]

Greenhouse gases
Main articles: Greenhouse gas, Greenhouse effect, Radiative forcing, and Carbon dioxide in Earth's atmosphere The greenhouse effect is the process by which absorption and emission of infraredradiation by gases in the atmosphere warm a planet's lower atmosphere and surface. It was proposed by Joseph Fourier in 1824 and was first investigated quantitatively bySvante Arrhenius in 1896.[44] Naturally occurring amounts of greenhouse gases have a mean warming effect of about33 C (59 F).[45][C] The major greenhouse gases are water vapor, which causes about 3670% of the greenhouse effect; carbon dioxide (CO2), which causes 926%; methane(CH4), which causes 49%; and ozone (O3), which causes 37%. [46][47][48] Clouds also affect the radiation balance through cloud forcings similar to greenhouse gases. Human activity since the Industrial Revolution has increased the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, leading to increased radiative forcing from CO2, methane, tropospheric ozone, CFCs and nitrous oxide. The concentrations of CO2 and methane have increased by 36% and 148% respectively since 1750. [49] These levels are much higher than at any time during the last 800,000 years, the period for which reliable

data has been extracted from ice cores.[50][51][52][53] Less direct geological evidence indicates that CO2 values higher than this were last seen about 20 million years ago.[54] Fossil fuelburning has produced about threequarters of the increase in CO2 from human activity over the past 20 years. The rest of this increase is caused mostly by changes in land-use, particularly deforestation.[55]

Per capita greenhouse gas emissionsin 2005, including land-use change.

Total greenhouse gas emissions in 2005, including land-use change.

Over the last three decades of the 20th century, gross domestic product per capita andpopulation growth were the main drivers of increases in greenhouse gas emissions.[56]CO2 emissions are continuing to rise due to the burning of fossil fuels and land-use change.[57][58]:71 Emissions can be attributed to different regions. The two figures opposite show annual greenhouse gas emissions for the year 2005, including land-use change. Attribution of emissions due to land-use change is a controversial issue.[59][60]:289 Emissions scenarios, estimates of changes in future emission levels of greenhouse gases, have been projected that depend upon uncertain economic, sociological,technological, and natural developments.[61] In most scenarios, emissions continue to rise over the century, while in a few, emissions are reduced.[62][63] Fossil fuel reserves are abundant, and will not limit carbon emissions in the 21st century.[64] Emission scenarios, combined with modelling of the carbon cycle, have been used to produce estimates of how atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases might change in the future. Using the six IPCC SRES "marker" scenarios, models suggest that by the year 2100, the atmospheric concentration of CO2 could range between 541 and 970 ppm.[65]This is an increase of 90250% above the concentration in the year 1750. The popular media and the public often confuse global warming with ozone depletion, i.e., the destruction of stratosphericozone by chlorofluorocarbons.[66][67] Although there are a few areas of linkage, the relationship between the two is not strong. Reduced stratospheric ozone has had a slight cooling influence on surface temperatures, while increased tropospheric ozonehas had a somewhat larger warming effect.[68]

Particulates and soot

Ship tracks over the Atlantic Ocean on the east coast of the United States. The climatic impacts from particulate forcing could have a large effect on climate through the indirect effect.

Global dimming, a gradual reduction in the amount of global direct irradiance at the Earth's surface, has partially counteracted global warming from 1960 to the present.[69][dated info] The main cause of this dimming is particulates produced by volcanoes and human made pollutants, which exerts a cooling effect by increasing the reflection of incoming sunlight. The effects of the products of fossil fuel combustionCO2 and aerosolshave largely offset one another in recent decades, so that net warming has been due to the increase in nonCO2 greenhouse gases such as methane.[70] Radiative forcing due to particulates is temporally limited due to wet deposition which causes them to have an atmospheric lifetime of one week. Carbon dioxide has a lifetime of a century or more, and as such, changes in particulate concentrations will only delay climate changes due to carbon dioxide.[71] In addition to their direct effect by scattering and absorbing solar radiation, particulates have indirect effects on the radiation budget.[72] Sulfates act as cloud condensation nuclei and thus lead to clouds that have more and smaller cloud droplets. These clouds reflect solar radiation more efficiently than clouds with fewer and larger droplets, known as the Twomey effect.[73] This effect also causes droplets to be of more uniform size, which reduces growth of raindrops and makes the cloud more reflective to incoming sunlight, known as the Albrecht effect.[74] Indirect effects are most noticeable in marine stratiform clouds, and have very little radiative effect on convective clouds. Indirect effects of particulates represent the largest uncertainty in radiative forcing.[75] Soot may cool or warm the surface, depending on whether it is airborne or deposited. Atmospheric soot directly absorb solar radiation, which heats the atmosphere and cools the surface. In isolated areas with high soot production, such as rural India, as much as 50% of surface warming due to greenhouse gases may be masked by atmospheric brown clouds.[76] When deposited, especially on glaciers or on ice in arctic regions, the lower surface albedo can also directly heat the surface.[77] The influences of particulates, including black carbon, are most pronounced in the tropics and sub-tropics, particularly in Asia, while the effects of greenhouse gases are dominant in the extratropics and southern hemisphere.[78]

Satellite observations of Total Solar Irradiance from 19792006.

Solar variation
Main article: Solar variation Variations in solar output have been the cause of past climate changes.[79] The effect of changes in solar forcing in recent decades is uncertain, but small, with some studies showing a slight cooling effect,[80] while others studies suggest a slight warming effect.*[42][81][82][83] Greenhouse gases and solar forcing affect temperatures in different ways. While both increased solar activity and increased greenhouse gases are expected to warm thetroposphere, an increase in solar activity should warm the stratosphere while an increase in greenhouse gases should cool the stratosphere.*[42] Radiosonde (weather balloon) data show the stratosphere has cooled over the period since observations began (1958), though there is greater uncertainty in the early radiosonde record. Satellite observations, which have been available since 1979, also show cooling.[84] A related hypothesis, proposed by Henrik Svensmark, is that magnetic activity of the sun deflects cosmic rays that may influence the generation of cloud condensation nuclei and thereby affect the climate.[85] Other research has found no relation between warming in recent decades and cosmic rays.[86][87] The influence of cosmic rays on cloud cover is about a factor of 100 lower than needed to explain the observed changes in clouds or to be a significant contributor to present-day climate change.[88] Studies in 2011 have indicated that solar activity may be slowing, and that the next solar cycle could be delayed. To what extent is not yet clear; Solar Cycle 25 is due to start in 2020, but may be delayed to 2022 or even longer. It is even possible that Sol could be heading towards another Maunder Minimum. While there is not yet a definitive link between solar sunspot activity and global temperatures, the scientists conducting the solar activity study believe that global greenhouse gas emissions would prevent any possible cold snap.[89]

Ecological systems
In terrestrial ecosystems, the earlier timing of spring events, and poleward and upward shifts in plant and animal ranges, have been linked with high confidence to recent warming.[110] Future climate change is expected to particularly affect certain ecosystems, including tundra, mangroves, and coral reefs.[112] It is expected that most ecosystems will be affected by higher atmospheric CO2 levels, combined with higher global temperatures. [115] Overall, it is expected that climate change will result in the extinction of many species and reduced diversity of ecosystems.[116]

Social systems
Vulnerability of human societies to climate change mainly lies in the effects of extreme weather events rather than gradual climate change.[117] Impacts of climate change so far include adverse effects on small islands, [118] adverse effects on indigenous populations in high-latitude areas,[119] and small but discernable effects on human health.[120] Over the 21st century, climate change is likely to adversely affect hundreds of millions of people through increased coastal flooding, reductions in water supplies, increased malnutrition and increased health impacts.[121] Future warming of around 3 C (by 2100, relative to 19902000) could result in increased crop yields in midand high-latitude areas, but in low-latitude areas, yields could decline, increasing the risk of malnutrition.[118] A similar regional pattern of net benefits and costs could occur for economic (market-sector) effects.[120] Warming above 3 C could result in crop yields falling in temperate regions, leading to a reduction in global food

production.[122] Most economic studies suggest losses of world gross domestic product (GDP) for this magnitude of warming.[123][124]

Responses to global warming

Mitigation
Main article: Climate change mitigation See also: Fee and dividend Reducing the amount of future climate change is called mitigation of climate change. The IPCC defines mitigation as activities that reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, or enhance the capacity of carbon sinks to absorb GHGs from the atmosphere.[125] Many countries, both developing and developed, are aiming to use cleaner, less polluting, technologies.[58]:192Use of these technologies aids mitigation and could result in substantial reductions in CO2 emissions. Policies include targets for emissions reductions, increased use of renewable energy, and increased energy efficiency. Studies indicate substantial potential for future reductions in emissions.[126] To limit warming to the lower range in the overall IPCC's "Summary Report for Policymakers"[127] means adopting policies that will limit emissions to one of the significantly different scenarios described in the full report.[128] This will become more and more difficult, since each year of high emissions will require even more drastic measures in later years to stabilize at a desired atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases, and energy-related carbon-dioxide (CO2) emissions in 2010 were the highest in history, breaking the prior record set in 2008.[129] Since even in the most optimistic scenario, fossil fuels are going to be used for years to come, mitigation may also involvecarbon capture and storage, a process that traps CO2 produced by factories and gas or coal power stations and then stores it, usually underground.[130]

Adaptation
Main article: Adaptation to global warming Other policy responses include adaptation to climate change. Adaptation to climate change may be planned, e.g., by local or national government, or spontaneous, i.e., done privately without government intervention. [131] The ability to adapt is closely linked to social and economic development.[126] Even societies with high capacities to adapt are still vulnerable to climate change. Planned adaptation is already occurring on a limited basis. The barriers, limits, and costs of future adaptation are not fully understood.

Geoengineering
A body of the scientific literature has developed which considers alternative geoengineering techniques for climate change mitigation.[132] In the IPCC's Fourth Assessment Report (published in 2007) Working Group III (WG3) assessed some "apparently promising" geoengineering techniques, including ocean fertilization, capturing and sequestering CO2, and techniques for reducing the amount of sunlight absorbed by the Earth's atmospheric system.[132] The IPCC's overall conclusion was that geoengineering options remained "largely speculative and unproven, (...) with the risk of unknown side-effects."[133] In the IPCC's[133] judgement, reliable cost estimates for geoengineering options had not yet been published. As most geoengineering techniques would affect the entire globe, deployment would likely require global public acceptance and an adequate global legal and regulatory framework, as well as significant further scientific research.[134]

Views on global warming

Main articles: Global warming controversy and Politics of global warming See also: Scientific opinion on climate change and Public opinion on climate change There are different views over what the appropriate policy response to climate change should be.[135] These competing views weigh the benefits of limiting emissions of greenhouse gases against the costs. In general, it seems likely that climate change will impose greater damages and risks in poorer regions.[136]

Global warming controversy

The global warming controversy refers to a variety of disputes, significantly more pronounced in the popular media than in the scientific literature,[137][138] regarding the nature, causes, and consequences of global warming. The disputed issues include the causes of increased global average air temperature, especially since the mid20th century, whether this warming trend is unprecedented or within normal climatic variations, whether humankind has contributed significantly to it, and whether the increase is wholly or partially an artifact of poor measurements. Additional disputes concern estimates of climate sensitivity, predictions of additional warming, and what the consequences of global warming will be. In the scientific literature, there is a strong consensus that global surface temperatures have increased in recent decades and that the trend is caused mainly by human-induced emissions of greenhouse gases. No scientific body of national or international standing disagrees with this view,[139][140] though a few organisations hold non-committal positions. From 1990-1997 in the United States, conservative think tanks mobilized to undermine the legitimacy of global warming as a social problem. They challenged the scientific evidence; argued that global warming will have benefits; and asserted that proposed solutions would do more harm than good.[141]

Politics
Article 2 of the UN Framework Convention refers explicitly to "stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations."[142] In order to stabilize the atmospheric concentration of CO2, emissions worldwide would need to be dramatically reduced from their present level.
[143]

Most countries are Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). [144] The ultimate objective of the Convention is to prevent "dangerous" human interference of the climate system.[145] As is stated in the Convention, this requires that GHG concentrations are stabilized in the atmosphere at a level where ecosystems can adapt naturally to climate change, food production is not threatened, and economic development can proceed in a sustainable fashion.[146] The Framework Convention was agreed in 1992, but since then, global emissions have risen.[147] During negotiations, the G77 (a lobbying group in the United Nations representing 133 developing nations)[148]:4 pushed for a mandate requiring developed countries to "[take] the lead" in reducing their emissions.[149] This was justified on the basis that: the developed world's emissions had contributed most to the stock of GHGs in the atmosphere; per-capita emissions (i.e., emissions per head of population) were still relatively low in developing countries; and the emissions of developing countries would grow to meet their development needs.[60]:290 This mandate was sustained in theKyoto Protocol to the Framework Convention,[60]:290 which entered into legal effect in 2005.[150] In ratifying the Kyoto Protocol, most developed countries accepted legally binding commitments to limit their emissions. These first-round commitments expire in 2012.[150]US President George W. Bush rejected the treaty

on the basis that "it exempts 80% of the world, including major population centers such as China and India, from compliance, and would cause serious harm to the US economy."[148]:5 At the 15th UNFCCC Conference of the Parties, held in 2009 at Copenhagen, several UNFCCC Parties produced the Copenhagen Accord.[151] Parties associated with the Accord (140 countries, as of November 2010)[152]:9 aim to limit the future increase in global mean temperature to below2 C.[153] A preliminary assessment published in November 2010 by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) suggests a possible "emissions gap" between the voluntary pledges made in the Accord and the emissions cuts necessary to have a "likely" (greater than 66% probability) chance of meeting the 2 C objective.[152]:1014 The UNEP assessment takes the2 C objective as being measured against the pre-industrial global mean temperature level. To having a likely chance of meeting the 2 C objective, assessed studies generally indicated the need for global emissions to peak before 2020, with substantial declines in emissions thereafter. The 16th Conference of the Parties (COP16) was held at Cancn in 2010. It produced an agreement, not a binding treaty, that the Parties should take urgent action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to meet a goal of limiting global warming to 2 Cabove pre-industrial temperatures. It also recognized the need to consider strengthening the goal to a global average rise of1.5 C.[154]

Public opinion
The examples and perspective in this section deal primarily with English-speaking territories and do not represent a worldwide view of the subject. Please improve this article and discuss the issue on the talk page. (October 2011)

Based on Rasmussen polling of 1,000 adults in the USA conducted 2930 July 2011.[155]

In 20072008 Gallup Polls surveyed 127 countries. Over a third of the world's population was unaware of global warming, with people in developing countries less aware than those in developed, and those in Africa the least aware. Of those aware, Latin America leads in belief that temperature changes are a result of human activities while Africa, parts of Asia and the Middle East, and a few countries from the Former Soviet Union lead in the opposite belief.[156] In the Western world, opinions over the concept and the appropriate responses are divided. Nick Pidgeon of Cardiff Universitysaid that "results show the different stages of engagement about global warming on each side of the Atlantic", adding, "The debate in Europe is about what action needs to be taken, while many in the US still debate whether climate change is happening."[157][158] A 2010 poll by the Office of National Statistics found that 75% of UK respondents were at least "fairly convinced" that the world's climate is changing, compared to 87% in a similar survey in 2006.[159] A January 2011 ICM poll in the UK found 83% of respondents viewed climate change as a current or imminent threat, while 14% said it was no threat. Opinion was unchanged from an August 2009 poll asking the same question, though there had been a slight polarisation of opposing views.[160]

A survey in October, 2009 by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press showed decreasing public perception in the US that global warming was a serious problem. All political persuasions showed reduced concern with lowest concern among Republicans, only 35% of whom considered there to be solid evidence of global warming.[161] The cause of this marked difference in public opinion between the US and the global public is uncertain but the hypothesis has been advanced that clearer communication by scientists both directly and through the media would be helpful in adequately informing the American public of the scientific consensus and the basis for it.[162] The US public appears to be unaware of the extent of scientific consensus regarding the issue, with 59% believing that scientists disagree "significantly" on global warming.[163] By 2010, with 111 countries surveyed, Gallup determined that there was a substantial decrease in the number of Americans and Europeans who viewed Global Warming as a serious threat. In the US, a little over half the population (53%) now viewed it as a serious concern for either themselves or their families; this was 10% below the 2008 poll (63%). Latin America had the biggest rise in concern, with 73% saying global warming was a serious threat to their families.[164] That global poll also found that people are more likely to attribute global warming to human activities than to natural causes, except in the USA where nearly half (47%) of the population attributed global warming to natural causes.[165] On the other hand, in May 2011 a joint poll by Yale and George Mason Universities found that nearly half the people in the USA (47%) attribute global warming to human activities, compared to 36% blaming it on natural causes. Only 5% of the 35% who were "disengaged", "doubtful", or "dismissive" of global warming were aware that 97% of publishing US climate scientists agree global warming is happening and is primarily caused by humans.[166] Researchers at the University of Michigan have found that the public's belief as to the causes of global warming depends on thewording choice used in the polls.[167] In the United States, according to the Public Policy Institute of California's (PPIC) eleventh annual survey on environmental policy issues, 75% said they believe global warming is a very serious or somewhat serious threat to the economy and quality of life in California.[168] A July 2011 Rasmussen Reports poll found that 69% of adults in the USA believe it is at least somewhat likely that some scientists have falsified global warming research.[155] A September 2011 Angus Reid Public Opinion poll found that Britons (43%) are less likely than Americans (49%) or Canadians (52%) to say that "global warming is a fact and is mostly caused by emissions from vehicles and industrial facilities." The same poll found that 20% of Americans, 20% of Britons and 14% of Canadians think "global warming is a theory that has not yet been proven."[169]

Other views
Most scientists agree that humans are contributing to observed climate change.[57][170] National science academies have called on world leaders for policies to cut global emissions.[171] However, some scientists and non-scientists question aspects of climate-change science.[170][172][173] Organizations such as the libertarian Competitive Enterprise Institute, conservative commentators, and some companies such as ExxonMobil have challenged IPCC climate change scenarios, funded scientists who disagree with the scientific consensus, and provided their own projections of the economic cost of stricter controls.[174][175][176][177] In the finance industry, Deutsche Bank has set up an institutional climate change investment division (DBCCA),[178] which has commissioned and published research[179] on the issues and debate surrounding global warming.[180] Environmental organizations and public figures have emphasized changes in the current climate and the risks they entail, while promoting adaptation to changes in infrastructural

needs and emissions reductions.[181] Some fossil fuel companies have scaled back their efforts in recent years, [182] or called for policies to reduce global warming.[183]

Etymology
The term global warming was probably first used in its modern sense on 8 August 1975 in a science paper by Wally Broecker in the journal Science called "Are we on the brink of a pronounced global warming?".[184][185] [186] Broecker's choice of words was new and represented a significant recognition that the climate was warming; previously the phrasing used by scientists was "inadvertent climate modification," because while it was recognized humans could change the climate, no one was sure which direction it was going.[187] The National Academy of Sciences first used global warming in a 1979 paper called the Charney Report, it said: "if carbon dioxide continues to increase, [we find] no reason to doubt that climate changes will result and no reason to believe that these changes will be negligible."[188] The report made a distinction between referring to surface temperature changes as global warming, while referring to other changes caused by increased CO2 as climate change.[187] Global warming became more widely popular after 1988 when NASA climate scientist James Hansen used the term in a testimony to Congress.[187] He said: "global warming has reached a level such that we can ascribe with a high degree of confidence a cause and effect relationship between the greenhouse effect and the observed warming."[189] His testimony was widely reported and afterward global warming was commonly used by the press and in p