Week 5
Week 5
LESSON 12
Broad Contents
Q-Sort Model
Pay-back Period
Average Rate of Return
Discounted Cash Flow
Internal Rate of Return (IRR)
• Non-Numeric Models:
• Q-Sort Model:
Of the several techniques for ordering projects, the Q-Sort (Helin and Souder,
1974) is one of the most straightforward. First, the projects are divided into
three groups—good, fair, and poor—according to their relative merits. If any
group has more than eight members, it is subdivided into two categories, such
as fair-plus and fair-minus. When all categories have eight or fewer members,
the projects within each category are ordered from best to worst. Again, the
order is determined on the basis of relative merit. The rater may use specific
criteria to rank each project, or may simply use general overall judgment. (See
Figure 12.1 below for an example of a Q-Sort.)
Projects can then be selected in the order of preference, though they are usually
evaluated financially before final selection.
There are other, similar nonnumeric models for accepting or rejecting projects.
Although it is easy to dismiss such models as unscientific, they should not be
discounted casually. These models are clearly goal-oriented and directly reflect
the primary concerns of the organization.
The sacred cow model, in particular, has an added feature; sacred cow projects
are visibly supported by “the powers that be.” Full support by top management
is certainly an important contributor to project success (Meredith, 1981).
Without such support, the probability of project success is sharply lowered.
As noted earlier, a large majority of all firms using project evaluation and selection
models use profitability as the sole measure of acceptability. We will consider these
models first, and then discuss models that surpass the profit test for acceptance.
1. Payback Period:
The payback period for a project is the initial fixed investment in the project
divided by the estimated annual net cash inflows from the project. The ratio of
these quantities is the number of years required for the project to repay its
initial fixed investment. For example, assume a project costs $100,000 to
implement and has annual net cash inflows of $25,000. Then
This method assumes that the cash inflows will persist at least long enough to
pay back the investment, and it ignores any cash inflows beyond the payback
period. The method also serves as an (inadequate) proxy for risk. The faster the
investment is recovered, the less the risk to which the firm is exposed.
To include the impact of inflation (or deflation) where pt is the predicted rate of
inflation during period t, we have
Early in the life of a project, net cash flow is likely to be negative, the major
outflow being the initial investment in the project, A0. If the project is
successful, however, cash flows will become positive. The project is acceptable
if the sum of the net present values of all estimated cash flows over the life of
the project is positive. A simple example will suffice. Using our $100,000
investment with a net cash inflow of $25,000 per year for a period of eight
years, a required rate of return of 15 percent, and an inflation rate of 3 percent
per year, we have
Because the present value of the inflows is greater than the present value of the
outflow— that is, the net present value is positive—the project is deemed
acceptable.
For example:
PsychoCeramic Sciences, Inc. (PSI), a large producer of cracked pots and other
cracked items, is considering the installation of a new marketing software
package that will, it is hoped, allow more accurate sales information concerning
the inventory, sales, and deliveries of its pots as well as its vases designed to
hold artificial flowers.
The information systems (IS) department has submitted a project proposal that
estimates the investment requirements as follows: an initial investment of
$125,000 to be paid up-front to the Pottery Software.
The project schedule calls for benefits to begin in the third year, and to be up-
to-speed by the end of that year. Projected additional profits resulting from
better and more timely sales information are estimated to be $50,000 in the first
year of operation and are expected to peak at $120,000 in the second year of
operation, and then to follow the gradually declining pattern shown in the table
12.1 below.
Project life is expected to be 10 years from project inception, at which time the
proposed system will be obsolete for this division and will have to be replaced.
It is estimated, however, that the software can be sold to a smaller division of
PsychoCeramic Sciences, Inc. (PSI) and will thus, have a salvage value of
$35,000. The Company has a 12 percent hurdle rate for capital investments and
expects the rate of inflation to be about 3 percent over the life of the project.
Assuming that the initial expenditure occurs at the beginning of the year and
that all other receipts and expenditures occur as lump sums at the end of the
year, we can prepare the Net Present Value analysis for the project as shown in
the table 12.1 below.
The Net Present Value of the project is positive and, thus, the project can be
accepted. (The project would have been rejected if the hurdle rate were 14
percent.) Just for the intellectual exercise, note that the total inflow for the
project is $759,000, or $75,900 per year on average for the 10 year project. The
required investment is $315,000 (ignoring the biennial overhaul charges).
Assuming 10 year, straight line depreciation, or $31,500 per year, the payback
period would be:
5. Profitability Index:
Also known as the benefit–cost ratio, the profitability index is the net present
value of all future expected cash flows divided by the initial cash investment.
(Some firms do not discount the cash flows in making this calculation.) If this
ratio is greater than 1.0, the project may be accepted.
In general, the net present value models are preferred to the internal rate of return
models. Despite wide use, financial models rarely include non-financial outcomes in
their benefits and costs. In a discussion of the financial value of adopting project
management (that is, selecting as a project the use of project management) in a firm,
Githens (1998) notes that traditional financial models “simply cannot capture the
complexity and value-added of today’s process-oriented firm.”
The commonly seen phrase “Return on Investment,” or ROI, does not denote any
specific method of calculation. It usually involves Net Present Value (NPV) or Internal
Rate of Return (IRR) calculations, but we have seen it used in reference to
undiscounted average rate of return models and (incorrectly) payback period models.
In our experience, the payback period model, occasionally using discounted cash flows,
is one of the most commonly used models for evaluating projects and other investment
opportunities. Managers generally feel that insistence on short payout periods tends to
minimize the risks associated with outstanding monies over the passage of time. While
this is certainly logical, we prefer evaluation methods that discount cash flows and deal
with uncertainty more directly by considering specific risks. Using the payout period as
a cash-budgeting tool aside, its primary virtue is its simplicity.
Real Options: Recently, a project selection model was developed based on a notion
well known in financial markets. When one invests, one foregoes the value of
alternative future investments. Economists refer to the value of an opportunity foregone
as the “opportunity cost” of the investment made.
The argument is that a project may have greater net present value if delayed to the
future. If the investment can be delayed, its cost is discounted compared to a present
investment of the same amount. Further, if the investment in a project is delayed, its
value may increase (or decrease) with the passage of time because some of the
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uncertainties will be reduced. If the value of the project drops, it may fail the selection
process. If the value increases, the investor gets a higher payoff. The real options
approach acts to reduce both technological and commercial risk. For a full explanation
of the method and its use as a strategic selection tool, see Luehrman (1998a and 1998b).
An interesting application of real options as a project selection tool for pharmaceutical
Research and Development (R and D) projects is described by Jacob and Kwak (2003).
Real options combined with Monte Carlo simulation is compared with alternative
selection/assessment methods by Doctor, Newton, and Pearson (2001).
PROJECT PROPOSAL
12.2 Introduction:
Project Proposal is the initial document that converts an idea or policy into details of a potential
project, including the outcomes, outputs, major risks, costs, stakeholders and an estimate of the
resource and time required.
To begin planning a proposal, remember the basic definition: a proposal is an offer or bid to do
a certain project for someone. Proposals may contain other elements – technical background,
recommendations, results of surveys, information about feasibility, and so on. But what makes a
proposal a proposal is, that it asks the audience to approve, fund, or grant permission to do the
proposed project.
If you plan to be a consultant or run your own business, written proposals may be one of your
most important tools for bringing in business. And, if you work for a government agency, non-
profit organization, or a large corporation, the proposal can be a valuable tool for initiating
projects that benefit the organization or you the employee proposed (and usually both).
A proposal should contain information that would enable the audience of that proposal to decide
whether to approve the project, to approve or hire you to do the work, or both. To write a
successful proposal, put yourself in the place of your audience – the recipient of the proposal,
and think about what sorts of information that person would need to feel confident having you
do the project.
It is easy to get confused about proposals. Imagine that you have a terrific idea for installing
some new technology where you work and you write up a document explaining how it works
and why it is so great, showing the benefits, and then end by urging management to go for it. Is
that a proposal? The answer is “No”, at least not in this context. It is more like a feasibility
report, which studies the merits of a project and then recommends for or against it. Now, all it
would take to make this document a proposal would be to add elements that ask management
for approval for you to go ahead with the project. Certainly, some proposals must sell the
projects they offer to do, but in all cases proposals must sell the writer (or the writer's
organization) as the one to do the project.
Consider the situations in which proposals occur. A company may send out a public
announcement requesting proposals for a specific project. This public announcement, called a
Request for Proposal (RFP), could be issued through newspapers, trade journals, Chamber of
Commerce channels, or individual letters. Firms or individuals interested in the project would
then write proposals in which they summarize their qualifications, project schedules and costs,
and discuss their approach to the project. The recipient of all these proposals would then
evaluate them, select the best candidate, and then work up a contract.
1. Internal Proposal:
2. External Proposal:
3. Solicited Proposal:
If a proposal is solicited, the recipient of the proposal in some way requested the
proposal. Typically, a company will send out requests for proposals (RFPs) through the
mail or publish them in some news source. But proposals can be solicited on a very
local level. For example, you could be explaining to your boss what a great thing it
would be to install a new technology in the office; your boss might get interested and
ask you to write up a proposal that offered to do a formal study of the idea.
4. Unsolicited Proposal:
Unsolicited proposals are those in which the recipient has not requested proposals.
With unsolicited proposals, you sometimes must convince the recipient that a problem
or need exists before you can begin the main part of the proposal.
In the military, Request for Proposal (RFP) is often raised to fulfill an Operational
Requirement (OR), after which the military procurement authority will normally issue a
detailed technical specification against which tenders will be made by potential
contractors. In the civilian use, Request for Proposal (RFP) is usually part of a complex
sales process, also known as enterprise sales.
Request for Proposals (RFPs) often include specifications of the item, project or service
for which a proposal is requested. The more detailed the specifications, the better the
chances that the proposal provided will be accurate. Generally Request for Proposals
(RFPs) are sent to an approved supplier or vendor list.
The bidders return a proposal by a set date and time. Late proposals may or may not be
considered, depending on the terms of the initial Request for Proposal. The proposals
are used to evaluate the suitability as a supplier, vendor, or institutional partner.
Discussions may be held on the proposals (often to clarify technical capabilities or to
note errors in a proposal). In some instances, all or only selected bidders may be invited
to participate in subsequent bids, or may be asked to submit their best technical and
financial proposal, commonly referred to as a Best and Final Offer (BAFO).
The Request for Quotation (RFQ) is used where discussions are not required with
bidders (mainly when the specifications of a product or service are already known), and
price is the main or only factor in selecting the successful bidder. Request for Quotation
(RFQ) may also be used as a step prior to going to a full-blown Request for Proposal
(RFP) to determine general price ranges. In this scenario, products, services or suppliers
may be selected from the Request for Quotation (RFQ) results to bring in to further
research in order to write a more fully fleshed out Request for Proposal (RFP).
Request for Proposal (RFP) is sometimes used for a Request for Pricing.
PROJECT PROPOSAL
Broad Contents
1. Proposal projects are high priority, short duration efforts. They must be completed to the
owners schedule requirement regardless of the work load and other demands on the
contracting organizations.
2. The owner’s specifications for the preferred payment method must be adhered to, at least in
the basic proposal. Alternates which offer benefits to both parties may be suggested for the
owner’s consideration.
3. The owner frequently will specify a particular format for the proposal and for presentation
of the requested information.
4. The owner may express a clear preference as to the location where the project work will be
done. The engineering company may suggest alternate arrangements that give the owner a
more cost effective project without sacrificing the required contract. The base proposal
however, must be as responsive as possible.
5. The owner may have a preference, openly expressed or merely implied, for the construction
labor arrangement. If this preference has not been made clear in the Request for Proposal
(RFP) or in the discussions with the owner, it should be determined at the earliest possible
time in the proposal effort so that the proper construction program may be planned.
6. A proposal project requires forming a team of the representatives for sales, project
management, technical and support functions. Many of these have responsibilities over and
above the proposal project. These work loads must be considered and respected insofar as is
possible.
7. Proposal projects are normally costed against corporate overhead and therefore will be
tightly budgeted and be closely monitored by senior management.
Because of the price restraints and the repetitive nature of much of the data used in proposals, it
is helpful to collect as much as possible of the proposal information in advance. This is
especially true for the following areas:
• A technical information data base including the full range of the type of projects offered by
the company, including feasibility studies, engineering projects, as well as full scope
projects for various types of facilities.
• Standard scope of services should be developed that can be readily customized for the
particular project on word processing system. Much of the particular information of various
projects is quiet similar and only requires bringing it into conformance with owner’s
requirements or with those of particular facility of location.
• The company should have developed comprehensive definitions for the various levels of
efforts associated with producing cost estimates of various accuracies. This is particularly
important for developing proposals for feasibility studies.
• Work plans should also be developed for the various basic types of projects. These can be
of general information which can then be modified to conform to the plans for the specified
project under consideration.
• A data bank is helpful to standardize commercial terms and conditions together with listing
that define those costs included in overhead and those which are not. This is particularly
important in reimbursable contracts to control charges to the standard check list and the
resultant changes in the reimbursable unit cost.
• Typical write ups should be prepared in advance for various other parts of the proposal.
These will be modified to suit the Request for Proposal (RFP) or inquiry document. Among
other these writings include:
o Introduction
o Project Organization
o Schedule
o Project Controls
o Compensation
Preparation of the proposal may start as soon as there has been a positive indication that the
company will be included in the bid list and preliminary information is available on the project.
Early efforts would include:
• Preliminary assignments for the anticipated proposals would be made based upon the
schedule for the Request for Proposal (RFP) release and the due date of the proposal. These
assignments would include the proposal project manager, the project manager proposed to
head the project, and the proposal publication and technical support personnel. In addition,
the lead estimator, the lead scheduler, technical personnel, procurement and construction
representatives as indicated by the nature of the effort would be selected.
• The preliminary proposal plan schedule and budget should be blocked out. The proposal
plan would define the outline of the proposal and the preliminary assignment of the work.
The schedule would indicate dates for completion of the preliminary draft, job hours and
cost estimates, the final draft dates, the necessary dates for approval, and the publication
and delivery dates.
• A rigorous assessment should be made of the technical aspects of the project to identify the
company’s strengths and weaknesses. Immediate and specific actions should be planned to
boost capability where this is required and to develop the personnel and background
information to cover these critical areas.
When Request for Proposal (RFP) is received, it is reviewed and a bid/no bid decision is made.
As soon as decision to bid has been confirmed, the assignment of team members is
finalized.
2. Kick-Off Meeting:
The project manager calls a kick-off meeting, at which the time task assignments and
the corresponding schedules are made. At this meeting, technical, legal and
compensation considerations are reviewed and assignments of responsibilities are made.
3. Preliminary Review of the Proposal Text:
All material is typed on word processor, with margins for easier editing. Typed drafts
should be checked carefully against the original draft to assure that nothing has been
inadvertently omitted.
4. Final Review:
When text is essentially in final form and all changes have been incorporated, it is
submitted for review of operations management and for final legal review. All major
changes from this last text review should be flagged so that the signoff should be
obtained quickly.
The Request for Proposal (RFP) conditions are summarized and general approach to the
work by the contractor is indicated.
2. Project Description:
This material is largely taken from the Request for Proposal (RFP). It may also include
information that has been obtained by site visits, during pre-bid conference, and in other
contacts with the owner of other knowledgeable sources.
3. Scope of Services:
This section details the services the owner will provide. It includes the services that will
be performed and the documents that will be produced. All services should be well
defined, not opened, even in reimbursable proposals. All of the documents that are to
be furnished as part of the services of the contractor should be listed in detail. A brief
description of what each will include should also be provided.
4. Work Plan and Schedule:
The project work plan is developed in response to the stated objectives of the owner or
as defined by the sales representatives and the objectives of the contracting firm for the
specific proposal. It may be presented in graphic form for showing the interrelationship
between various activities.
5. Project Organization:
This describes the proposed project organization, and details the responsibilities of each
of the key member of the project team. An organization chart depicting the proposed
project team will be drawn. The interface with the supplier of technology should be
carefully defined, and the technical review responsibilities should be carefully defined.
6. Estimates, Hours, Costs:
All of the information presented in the previous sections of the proposal must be taken
into account in preparing the estimates of work. The cost estimates will include salaries
of all technical and non – technical personnel, as well as indirect costs such as travel,
communication, computer use and reproduction.
7. Compensation:
After the estimates have been reviewed, the commercial terms are finalized by adding
those discretionary figures such as burdens, contingencies, overlays and fees required
by the format of the bid. This information is presented in the compensation section of
the bid.
8. Qualifications:
The qualification section of the proposal contains all relevant material arranged in
proper manner to strengthen confidence as to the contractor’s capability in the mind of
the owner’s management. It must always be reviewed to ensure that the information
presented is accurate, pertinent and forceful.
13.6 Modifications to the Standard Proposal:
Many owners have a very specific format which requires that the contractor depart from a
standard proposal format. It is best to follow the specified format as it will help to simplify the
proposal evaluation process in the owner’s office.
Broad Contents
The following is a review of the sections you will commonly find in proposals. Do not assume
that each one of them has to be in the actual proposal you write, nor that they have to be in the
order they are presented here, plus you may discover that other kinds of information not
mentioned here must be included in your particular proposal.
1. Introduction:
Plan the introduction to your proposal carefully. Make sure it caters to all of the
following things (but not necessarily in this order) that apply to your particular
proposal:
Remember that you may not need all of these elements, and some of them can combine
neatly into single sentences. The introduction ought to be brisk and to the point and not
feel as though it is trudging laboriously through each of these elements.
Often occurring just after the introduction, the background section discusses what has
brought about the need for the project; what problem, what opportunity there is for
improving things, what the basic situation is. An owner of pine timberland may want to
get the land productive of saleable timber without destroying the ecology.
It is true that the audience of the proposal may know the problem very well, in which
case this section might not be needed. Writing the background section still might be
useful, however, in demonstrating your particular view of the problem. And, if the
proposal is unsolicited, a background section is almost a requirement; you will probably
need to convince the audience that the problem or opportunity exists and that it should
be addressed.
Most proposals discuss the advantages or benefits of doing the proposed project. This
acts as an argument in favor of approving the project. Also, some proposals discuss the
likelihood of the project's success. In the forestry proposal, the proposer is
recommending that the landowner make an investment; at the end of the proposal, he
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explores the question of what return there will be on that investment, how likely those
returns are. In the unsolicited proposal, this section is particularly important as you are
trying to "sell" the audience on the project.
Most proposals must describe the finished product of the proposed project. In this
course, that means describing the written document you propose to write, its audience
and purpose; providing an outline; and discussing such things as its length, graphics,
binding, and so forth.) In the scenario you define, there may be other work such as
conducting training seminars or providing an ongoing service. Add that too.
In most proposals, you will want to explain how you will go about doing the proposed
work, if approved to do it. This acts as an additional persuasive element; it shows the
audience you have a sound, well-thought-out approach to the project. Also, it serves as
the other form of background some proposals need. Remember that the background
section (the one discussed above) focused on the problem or need that brings about the
proposal. However, in this section, we will discuss the technical background relating to
the procedures or technology you plan to use in the proposed work. For example, in the
forestry proposal, the writer gives a bit of background on how timber management is
done. Once again, this gives the proposal writer a chance to show that you know what
you are talking about, and build confidence in the audience that you are a good choice
to do the project.
6. Schedule:
Most proposals contain a section that shows not only the projected completion date but
also key milestones for the project. If you are doing a large project spreading over many
months, the timeline would also show dates on which you would deliver progress
reports. And if you cannot cite specific dates, cite amounts of time or time spans for
each phase of the project.
7. Qualifications:
9. Conclusions:
The final paragraph or section of the proposal should bring readers back to a focus on
the positive aspects of the project (you have just showed them the costs). In the final
Remember that the preceding sections are typical or common in written proposals, not
absolute requirements. Similarly, some proposals may require other sections not
discussed above. Do not let your proposal planning be dictated by the preceding
discussion. Always ask yourself what else might my audience need to understand the
project, the need for it, the benefits arising from it, my role in it, my qualifications to it,
What else might my readers need to be convinced to allow me to do the project? What
else do they need to see in order to approve the project and to approve me to do the
project?
As for the organization of the content of a proposal, remember that it is essentially a sales, or
promotional document. Here are the basic steps it goes through:
1. You introduce the proposal, telling the readers its purpose and contents.
2. You present the background – the problem, opportunity, or situation that brings about the
proposed project. Get the reader concerned about the problem, excited about the
opportunity, or interested in the situation in some way.
3. State what you propose to do about the problem, how you plan to help the readers take
advantage of the opportunity, how you intend to help them with the situation.
4. Discuss the benefits of doing the proposed project, the advantages that come from
approving it.
5. Describe exactly what the completed project would consist of, what it would look like, how
it would work – describe the results of the project.
6. Discuss the method and theory or approach behind that method; enable readers to
understand how you will go about the proposed work.
7. Provide a schedule, including major milestones or checkpoints in the project.
8. Briefly list your qualifications for the project; provide a mini-resume of the background you
have that makes you right for the project.
9. Now (and only now), list the costs of the project, the resources you will need to do the
project.
10. Conclude with a review of the benefits of doing the project (in case the shock from the costs
section was too much), and urge the audience to get in touch or to accept the proposal.
Notice the overall logic of the movement through these section: you get them concerned about a
problem or interested in an opportunity, then you get them excited about how you will fix the
problem or do the project, then you show them what good qualifications you have – then hit
them with the costs, but then come right back to the good points about the project.
Following are the options for the format and packaging of your proposal. It does not matter
which you use as long as you use the memorandum format for internal proposals and the
business letter format for external proposals.
• Business-Letter Proposal:
In this format, you put the entire proposal within a standard business letter. You include
headings and other special formatting elements as if it were a report.
• Memo Proposal:
In this format, you put the entire proposal within a standard office memorandum. You
include headings and other special formatting elements as if it were a report.
If we are in a competitive bid situation, usually price, schedule, financial stability, quality of
experience and resources and financing offer (if any) are relevant. However, many contract
awards are made on a negotiated basis. While success may depend on some or all of the above
features, two others many come into strategic play:
1. Interpersonal relationships with people of the prospective client
2. The written word in the proposal. Conveying the real proposal message with effective
writing is essential.
Cost or level of estimated effort in terms of man-hour or man-months may well be the deciding
factor. If so, in times of a strong U.S. dollar it very definitely places a U.S. firm at a
disadvantage overseas.
Obviously, if evaluation criteria are specified, every effort needs to be made to achieve the
maximum possible score.
Various techniques are employed in proposal writing, i.e., getting the message across. Aside
from outlines, schedules and tables of contents, one technique, which has come into wide use, is
called the “story board”.
It employs modules organized for each strategic message intended for the proposal. Each
module is composed of:
1. A topical sentence describing the module theme
2. A theme expressing the strategic message in, say 400 –800 words
3. Graphic or artwork to illustrate the theme
Modules from their earlier skeleton form and further developed during the proposal preparation
process are posted on the wall of a control room. When finished they tell the complete story.
This technique permits early organization of the proposal contents, allows continuous
management overview, directs the tone of the proposal toward its strategic objectives, clearly
establishes writing assignments, and produces a balance of content.
A carefully conceived financing package is often a proposal requirement. This subject is
covered in separate former oral presentations, in addition to written proposals, sometimes are
important steps in the process. However, overseas clients generally are less interested in
receiving them than in the United States.
What about post proposal strategies? Continuous contact with the perspective client, in an effort
to answer his questions and to further demonstrate our commitment to his project, can be
worthwhile. If our proposal was not selected, a postmortem will be of value to determine how
we went wrong or how the competition outdid us.
The following tried and tested tips are to encourage the 100%ers to write more proposals and
the low raters to take heart and give it another try.
2. Respond Quickly:
While not always possible, when you are able to, respond to your prospective and active
clients immediately. If you have an expected delay, let them know that you plan to be
unavailable. Be punctual with all your appointments and make sure that you meet your
deadlines. If you miss a deadline and you are at fault, take a hit on your earnings. This
will let the client know that you mean what you say and it will also help you to make
sure it does not happen again.