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Slides 11

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Chris Keller
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Session 11: Project Risk Management

March 2023
Project Risk Management

Have a doubt? For this session, After every


Be on Time.
Use the chat we will have major section,
You don't
box or “raise two 10-minute there will be up
want to
your hand” to breaks to three (3)
miss out on
anything speak or leave a assessment
message exercises
Recap of Session 10 of the Workshop
Recap of Session 10 of the Workshop
❑Failure to communicate is often the greatest threat to the
success of any project, especially IT projects
❑Project managers can spend as much as 90 percent of their
time on communicating
❑To improve project communications, project managers and
their teams must develop their communication skills
❑Technology continue to become available to help improve
communications.

❑Slides uploaded from session 9


❑Key Terms uploaded
❑Recording uploaded
Project Risk Management

Learning Objectives

• Explain the concept of risk as it relates to project


management, and list the advantages of managing project
risks according to best practices
• Discuss the elements of planning risk management and the
contents of a risk management plan
• List common sources of risks on information technology (IT)
projects
• Describe the process of identifying risks and create a risk
register and risk report and how to monitor risks
• Discuss qualitative and quantitative risk analysis
• Describe how software can assist in project risk management

Information Technology Project Management, Ninth Edition. © 2019 Cengage. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except
for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website for classroom use.
QR Code to answer exercises
Access QR code below from your
cellphone
Information Technology Project Management, Ninth Edition. © 2019 Cengage. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except
for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website for classroom use.
What is risk?

• The combination of the likelihood of an event and its impact


• A potential uncertain event that may be harmful or may
negatively impact objective achievement
• Reminders of what could prevent successful completion of a
project
• A constraint that limits money, time, or resources is a risk

Risk – “an uncertain event or condition that, if it occurs,


has a positive or negative effect on a project’s
objectives.” PMBOK® Guide

Information Technology Project Management, Ninth Edition. © 2019 Cengage. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except
for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website for classroom use.
What is risk?

Cement will Bad weather 100-year


harden will happen flood

• A “known known” can be planned and managed with


certainty
• “Known unknowns” can be identified and may or may
not happen
• “Unknown unknowns” are true uncertainties and
cannot be managed proactively
The Importance of Project Risk Management

• Project risk management is the art and science of identifying,


analyzing, and responding to risk throughout the life of a
project and in the best interests of meeting project objectives
• Risk management is often overlooked in projects, but it can help
improve project success by helping select good projects, determining
project scope, and developing realistic estimates

Information Technology Project Management, Ninth Edition. © 2019 Cengage. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except
for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website for classroom use.
Global Issues

Information Technology Project Management, Ninth Edition. © 2019 Cengage. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except
for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website for classroom use.
The Importance of Project Risk Management

• A dictionary definition of risk is “the possibility of loss or


injury”
• General definition of a project risk: an uncertainty that can have a
negative or positive effect on meeting project objectives
• Managing negative risks involves a number of possible actions that
project managers can take to avoid, lessen, change, or accept the
potential effects of risks on their projects
• Positive risk management is like investing in opportunities

Information Technology Project Management, Ninth Edition. © 2019 Cengage. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except
for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website for classroom use.
Best Practice

• Some organizations make the mistake of only addressing


tactical and negative risks when performing project risk
management
• David Hillson suggests overcoming this problem by widening the
scope of risk management to encompass both strategic risks and
upside opportunities, which he refers to as integrated risk
management
• Hillson described the importance of good working relationships;
especially between the project sponsor and project manager

Information Technology Project Management, Ninth Edition. © 2019 Cengage. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except
for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website for classroom use.
The Importance of Project Risk Management (5 of
7)

• Risk utility is the amount of satisfaction or pleasure received


from a potential payoff
• Utility rises at a decreasing rate for people who are risk-averse
• Those who are risk-seeking have a higher tolerance for risk and their
satisfaction increases when more payoff is at stake
• Risk-neutral approach achieves a balance between risk and payoff

Information Technology Project Management, Ninth Edition. © 2019 Cengage. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except
for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website for classroom use.
The Importance of Project Risk Management (6 of
7)

Information Technology Project Management, Ninth Edition. © 2019 Cengage. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except
for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website for classroom use.
Advice for Young Professionals

• Young project professionals are sometimes more willing to


take risks with unique or untested approaches
• Take the time to find out what other, more experienced people might
feel about the circumstances of a project before making up your
mind about potential risks
• Then, taking other views into account, you can determine how best to plan for
the impacts that might occur while balancing the rewards of a potential payoff
from a unique or untested approach

Information Technology Project Management, Ninth Edition. © 2019 Cengage. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except
for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website for classroom use.
The Importance of Project Risk Management (7 of
7)

• Project risk management processes


• Planning risk management: deciding how to approach and plan the
risk management activities for the project
• Identifying risks: determining which risks are likely to affect a project
and documenting the characteristics of each
• Performing qualitative risk analysis: prioritizing risks based on their
probability and impact of occurrence
• Performing quantitative risk analysis: numerically estimating the
effects of risks on project objectives
• Planning risk responses: taking steps to enhance opportunities and
reduce threats to meeting project objectives
• Implementing risk responses: implementing the risk response plans
• Monitoring risk: monitoring identified and residual risks, identifying
new risks, carrying out risk response plans, and evaluating the
effectiveness of risk strategies throughout the life of the project
Information Technology Project Management, Ninth Edition. © 2019 Cengage. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except
for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website for classroom use.
Planning Risk Management (1 of 3)

• Main output of this process is a risk management plan


• Documents the procedures for managing risk throughout a project
• The project team should review project documents as well as
corporate risk management policies, risk categories, lessons-
learned reports from past projects, and templates for creating
a risk management plan
• It is also important to review the risk tolerances of various
stakeholders

Information Technology Project Management, Ninth Edition. © 2019 Cengage. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except
for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website for classroom use.
Planning Risk Management (2 of 3)

• Additional plans
• Contingency plans: predefined actions that the project team will take
if an identified risk event occurs
• Fallback plans: developed for risks that have a high impact on
meeting project objectives, and are put into effect if attempts to
reduce the risk are not effective
• Contingency reserves or allowances: funds included in the cost
baseline that can be used to mitigate cost or schedule overruns if
known risks occur
• Management reserves: funds held for unknown risks that are used
for management control purposes

Information Technology Project Management, Ninth Edition. © 2019 Cengage. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except
for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website for classroom use.
Planning Risk Management (3 of 3)
Topic Questions to Answer

Methodology How will risk management be performed on this project? What tools and data
sources are available and applicable?
Roles and responsibilities Which people are responsible for implementing specific tasks and providing
deliverables related to risk management?
Budget and schedule What are the estimated costs and schedules for performing risk-related activities?

Risk categories What are the main categories of risks that should be addressed on this project? Is
there a risk breakdown structure for the project? (See the information on risk
breakdown structures later in this chapter.)
Risk probability and impact How will the probabilities and impacts of risk items be assessed? What scoring
and interpretation methods will be used for the qualitative and quantitative
analysis of risks? How will the probability and impact matrix be developed?
Revised stakeholders’ Have stakeholders’ tolerances for risk changed? How will those changes affect the
tolerances project?
Tracking How will the team track risk management activities? How will lessons learned be
documented and shared? How will risk management processes be audited?
Risk documentation What reporting formats and processes will be used for risk management
activities?

Table 11-2 Topics addressed in a risk management plan


Information Technology Project Management, Ninth Edition. © 2019 Cengage. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except
for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website for classroom use.
Common Sources of Risk on IT Projects (1 of 3)

• Several studies show that IT projects share some common


sources of risk
• The Standish Group developed an IT success potential scoring sheet
based on potential risks
• Other broad categories of risk help identify potential risks
• Market risk
• Financial risk
• Technology risk
• People risk
• Structure/process risk
• A risk breakdown structure is a hierarchy of potential risk
categories for a project

Information Technology Project Management, Ninth Edition. © 2019 Cengage. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except
for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website for classroom use.
Common Sources of Risk on IT Projects (2 of 3)

Information Technology Project Management, Ninth Edition. © 2019 Cengage. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except
for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website for classroom use.
Common Sources of Risk on IT Projects (3 of 3)
Knowledge Area Risk Conditions

Integration Inadequate planning; poor resource allocation; poor integration management; lack of post-
project review
Scope Poor definition of scope or work packages; incomplete definition

Time Errors in estimating time or resource availability; errors in determining the critical path; poor
allocation and management of float; early release of competitive products
Cost Estimating errors; inadequate productivity, cost, change, or contingency

Quality Poor attitude toward quality; substandard design, materials, and workmanship; inadequate
quality assurance program
Human resource Poor conflict management; poor project organization and definition of responsibilities;
absence of leadership
Communications Carelessness in planning or communicating

Risk Ignoring risk; unclear analysis of risk; poor insurance management

Procurement Unenforceable conditions or contract clauses; adversarial relations

Stakeholders Lack of consultation with key stakeholder; poor sponsor engagement

Table 11-3 Potential negative risk conditions associated with


each knowledge area. *Source: R.M. Wideman
Information Technology Project Management, Ninth Edition. © 2019 Cengage. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except
for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website for classroom use.
What Went Wrong?

• In a 2013 survey, risk management was a high priority


• However, only 66 percent of companies said they often build it into
their strategy planning decisions
• Airline incidents cause concerns, especially when lives are lot
• The 2015 Germanwings crash resulted in 150 deaths, allegedly due to
the co-pilot’s poor mental state
• They responded immediately by implementing a rule that two people
must be in the cockpit at all times and are considering changes to
medical and psychological tests for pilots

Information Technology Project Management, Ninth Edition. © 2019 Cengage. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except
for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website for classroom use.
Identifying Risks (1 of 5)

• Understanding what potential events might hurt or enhance a


particular project
• You cannot manage risks if you do not identify them first
• Another consideration is the likelihood of advanced discovery
• Often viewed at a program level rather than a project level
• Suggestions for identifying risks: tools and techniques
• Brainstorming
• The Delphi Technique
• Interviewing
• SWOT analysis
• Risk register
• Cause and effect

Information Technology Project Management, Ninth Edition. © 2019 Cengage. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except
for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website for classroom use.
Identifying risks: tools and techniques

Information Technology Project Management, Ninth Edition. © 2019 Cengage. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except
for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website for classroom use.
Identifying Risks (2 of 5)

• Brainstorming
• Group attempts to generate ideas or find a solution for a specific
problem by amassing ideas spontaneously and without judgment
• An experienced facilitator should run the brainstorming session
• Be careful not to overuse or misuse brainstorming
• Psychology literature shows that individuals produce a greater number of ideas
working alone than they do through brainstorming in small, face-to-face groups
• Group effects often inhibit idea generation

Information Technology Project Management, Ninth Edition. © 2019 Cengage. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except
for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website for classroom use.
Identifying Risks (3 of 5)

• Delphi Technique
• Used to derive a consensus among a panel of experts who make
predictions about future developments
• Provides independent and anonymous input regarding future events
• Uses repeated rounds of questioning and written responses and
avoids the biasing effects possible in oral methods

Information Technology Project Management, Ninth Edition. © 2019 Cengage. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except
for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website for classroom use.
Identifying Risks (4 of 5)

• Interviewing
• Fact-finding technique for collecting information in face-to-face,
phone, e-mail, or virtual discussions
• Interviewing people with similar project experience is an important
tool for identifying potential risks

Information Technology Project Management, Ninth Edition. © 2019 Cengage. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except
for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website for classroom use.
Identifying Risks (5 of 5)

• SWOT analysis
• Strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats
• Helps identify the broad negative and positive risks that apply to a
project

Information Technology Project Management, Ninth Edition. © 2019 Cengage. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except
for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website for classroom use.
The Risk Register (1 of 4)

• Important output of the risk identification process


• List of identified risks and other information needed to begin
creating a risk register
• Contains the results of various risk management processes and that is often
displayed in a table or spreadsheet format
• Tool for documenting potential risk events and related information
• Risk events refer to specific, uncertain events that may occur to the
detriment or enhancement of the project

Information Technology Project Management, Ninth Edition. © 2019 Cengage. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except
for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website for classroom use.
The Risk Register (2 of 4)

• Risk register contents


• Identification number for each risk event
• Rank for each risk event
• Name of each risk event
• Description of each risk event
• Category under which each risk event falls
• Root cause of each risk
• Triggers for each risk; indicators or symptoms of actual risk events
• Potential responses to each risk
• Risk owner or person who will own or take responsibility for each risk
• Probability and impact of each risk occurring
• Status of each risk

Information Technology Project Management, Ninth Edition. © 2019 Cengage. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except
for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website for classroom use.
The Risk Register (3 of 4)

No. Rank Risk Description Category Root Triggers Potential Risk Probability Impact Status
Cause Responses Owner
R44 1

R21 2

R7 3

Table 11-4 Sample risk register

Information Technology Project Management, Ninth Edition. © 2019 Cengage. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except
for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website for classroom use.
The Risk Register: Sample Risk (4 of 4)

Information Technology Project Management, Ninth Edition. © 2019 Cengage. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except
for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website for classroom use.
Individual Assignment: Cause and effect and Risk
Mitigation

Within 30 minutes
Please refer to the following assignment in Canvas:
• Understanding cause and effect - Fishbone diagram
• Applying risk mitigation through the risk register
Performing Qualitative Risk Analysis

• Assess the likelihood and impact of identified risks to


determine their magnitude and priority
• Risk quantification tools and techniques
• Probability/impact matrixes
• The Top Ten Risk Item Tracking
• Expert judgment

Information Technology Project Management, Ninth Edition. © 2019 Cengage. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except
for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website for classroom use.
Using Probability/Impact Matrixes to Calculate Risk
Factors (1 of 3)

• Lists relative probability of a risk occurring on one side of a


matrix or axis on a chart and the relative impact of the risk
occurring
• List the risks and then label each one as high, medium, or low in
terms of its probability of occurrence and its impact if it did occur
• Calculates risk factors
• Numbers that represent the overall risk of specific events based on
their probability of occurring and the consequences to the project if
they do occur

Information Technology Project Management, Ninth Edition. © 2019 Cengage. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except
for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website for classroom use.
Using Probability/Impact Matrixes to Calculate Risk
Factors (2 of 3)

Information Technology Project Management, Ninth Edition. © 2019 Cengage. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except
for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website for classroom use.
Using Probability/Impact Matrixes to Calculate Risk
Factors (3 of 3)

Information Technology Project Management, Ninth Edition. © 2019 Cengage. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except
for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website for classroom use.
Media Snapshot

• The story of the Titanic is known throughout the world, and


on April 15, 2012, people acknowledged the anniversary of
the Titanic’s sinking
• A recent article in PMI’s Virtual Library explains how to avoid “the
Titanic factor” in your projects by analyzing the interdependence of
risks
• For example, the probability of one risk event occurring might change if
another one materializes, and the response to one risk event might affect
another

Information Technology Project Management, Ninth Edition. © 2019 Cengage. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except
for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website for classroom use.
Performing Quantitative Risk Analysis

• Often follows qualitative risk analysis, but both can be done


together
• Large, complex projects involving leading edge technologies often
require extensive quantitative risk analysis
• Main techniques
• Decision tree analysis
• Simulation
• Sensitivity analysis

Information Technology Project Management, Ninth Edition. © 2019 Cengage. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except
for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website for classroom use.
Decision Trees and Expected Monetary Value (EMV)
(1 of 2)

• A decision tree is a diagramming analysis technique used to


help select the best course of action in situations in which
future outcomes are uncertain
• Estimated monetary value (EMV) is the product of a risk event
probability and the risk event’s monetary value
• You can draw a decision tree to help find the EMV

Information Technology Project Management, Ninth Edition. © 2019 Cengage. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except
for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website for classroom use.
Decision Trees and Expected Monetary Value (EMV)
(2 of 2)

Information Technology Project Management, Ninth Edition. © 2019 Cengage. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except
for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website for classroom use.
Individual Expected Monetary Value Exercise:

Within 15 minutes
Please refer to the following assignment in Canvas:

• Project Risk Management : Expected Monetary Value


Planning Risk Responses (1 of 3)

• After identifying and quantifying risks, the organization must


decide how to respond to them
• Basic response strategies for negative risks
• Risk avoidance
• Risk acceptance
• Risk transference
• Risk mitigation
• Risk escalation
• Basic response strategies for positive risks
• Risk exploitation
• Risk sharing
• Risk enhancement
• Risk acceptance
• Risk escalation

Information Technology Project Management, Ninth Edition. © 2019 Cengage. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except
for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website for classroom use.
Planning Risk Responses (2 of 3)

Technical Risks Cost Risks Schedule Risks


Emphasize team support Increase the frequency of Increase the frequency of
and avoid stand-alone project monitoring project monitoring
project structure
Increase project manager Use WBS and CPM Use WBS and CPM
authority
Improve problem handling Improve communication, Select the most experienced
and communication understanding of project project manager
goals, and team support
Increase the frequency of Increase project manager
project monitoring authority
Use WBS and CPM

Table 11-6 General risk mitigation strategies for technical,


cost, and schedule risks. *Source: J. Couillard

Information Technology Project Management, Ninth Edition. © 2019 Cengage. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except
for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website for classroom use.
Planning Risk Responses (3 of 3)

• It’s also important to identify residual and secondary risks


• Residual risks: risks that remain after all of the response strategies
have been implemented
• Secondary risks: direct result of implementing a risk response

Information Technology Project Management, Ninth Edition. © 2019 Cengage. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except
for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website for classroom use.
Implementing Risk Responses

• Main executing process performed as part of project risk


management is implementing risk responses
• Key outputs
• Change requests
• Project documents updates

Information Technology Project Management, Ninth Edition. © 2019 Cengage. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except
for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website for classroom use.
Monitoring Risks

• Involves ensuring the appropriate risk responses are


performed, tracking identified risks, identifying and analyzing
new risk, and evaluating effectiveness of risk management
throughout the entire project
• Project risk management does not stop with the initial risk analysis
• Carrying out individual risk management plans involves
monitoring risks based on defined milestones and making
decisions regarding risks and their response strategies
• Project teams sometimes use workarounds—unplanned responses
to risk events—when they do not have contingency plans in place

Information Technology Project Management, Ninth Edition. © 2019 Cengage. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except
for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website for classroom use.
Using Software to Assist in Project Risk
Management

• Risk registers can be created in a simple Microsoft Word or


Excel file or as part of a sophisticated database
• More sophisticated risk management software, such as Monte Carlo
simulation tools, help develop models and use simulations to analyze
and respond to various risks

Information Technology Project Management, Ninth Edition. © 2019 Cengage. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except
for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website for classroom use.
Risk Management Plan Exercise:

Within 30 minutes
Please refer to the following assignment in Canvas:

• Project Risk Management : Risk Management Plan


Chapter Summary

• Risk is an uncertainty that can have a negative or positive effect


on meeting project objectives
• Many organizations do a poor job of project risk management, if they
do any at all
• Successful organizations realize the value of good project risk
management
• Risk management is an investment
• Costs are associated with identifying risks, analyzing those risks, and
establishing plans to address them
• Implementing risk responses involves putting the appropriate
risk response plans into action
• Monitoring risks involves monitoring implementation of risk response
plans, tracking identified risks, identifying and analyzing new risks, and
evaluating effectiveness of risk management throughout the entire
project
Information Technology Project Management, Ninth Edition. © 2019 Cengage. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except
for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website for classroom use.
Break – 10 mins
Break – 10 mins

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