FDA 2023 D 0451 0005 - Content
FDA 2023 D 0451 0005 - Content
August 2020
• During the past two years, the PBDA “milk,” “yogurt” and “cheese” categories grew much more significantly
than their dairy counterparts – particularly yogurt, which nearly doubled its retail sales, and cheese, which
increased its sales by over 50%.
• In addition to retail sales data, other key indicators that PBDA dairy will continue its upward trend include:
dairy manufacturers are developing and adding plant-based products to their own portfolios, and consumers
are increasingly seeking dairy alternatives for both dietary reasons and personal preference.
The purpose of this study was to inform future CFSAN policy regarding the modernization of standards of identity
(SOI) in the dairy industry, in support of FDA’s Nutrition Innovation Strategy.
“Powered by IRI”
Source: The Good Food Institute, “Plant-Based Food Retail Market Overview” webinar, 4/2020
• Nielsen’s Expanded All Outlet Channel (xAOC) sales do not appear to cover as many natural/specialty
gourmet stores as SPINS, but it does include projections for Whole Foods, Trader Joe’s and Aldi.
Source: SPINSscan Natural and Specialty Gourmet (proprietary) + SPINSscan Conventional Multi Outlet (powered by IRI) for 52 and 104
weeks ending 12-29-2019. Cited in The Good Food Institute, 2019 State of the Industry: Plant-Based Meat, Eggs and Dairy, 5/2020
Source: SPINSscan Natural and Specialty Gourmet (proprietary) + SPINSscan Conventional Multi Outlet (powered by IRI) for 52 and 104
weeks ending 12-29-2019. Cited in The Good Food Institute, “Plant-Based Food Retail Market Overview” webinar, 4/2020
Source: SPINSscan Natural and Specialty Gourmet (proprietary) + SPINSscan Conventional Multi Outlet (powered by IRI) for 52 and 104
weeks ending 12-29-2019. Cited in The Good Food Institute, “Plant-Based Food Retail Market Overview” webinar, 4/2020
• In terms of retail channels, PBDA “milk,” “yogurt” and “cheese” each has its largest share of total retail
sales in the Natural channel, followed by Specialty Gourmet and Conventional Multi-Outlet (MULO).
*Conventional Multi Outlet (MULO) channel covers >104,000 grocery, drug, mass, dollar, military, and club retail locations (e.g. Publix,
Walmart, Kroger, Target)
**Specialty Gourmet channel covers “full-format supermarkets” with at least $2 million in annual sales and “SPINS-defined specialty items”
comprising at least 25% of overall volume. Retailers are also defined as “high-end” and “experiential.” (e.g. Gelson’s, Heinen’s, Busch’s)
***Natural channel covers “full-format” stores with at least $2 million in annual sales and at least 50% of sales from
natural/organic products (e.g. Sprouts, Erewhon, Earth Fare; exclude Whole Foods and Trader Joe’s)
Source: SPINSscan Natural and Specialty Gourmet (proprietary) plus SPINSscan Conventional Multi Outlet (powered by IRI) for 52 weeks
ending 12-29-2019. Cited in The Good Food Institute, “Plant-Based Food Retail Market Overview” webinar, 4/2020
Source: IRI Panel, All Outlets, 52 weeks ending 11/3/2019, NBD Aligned. Cited in IRI, “Understanding the Plant-Based Consumer: A Deeper
Look Into Plant-Based Purchase Trends, Demographics, Perceptions and Usage,” 1/16/2020
Source: IRI Panel, All Outlets, 52 weeks ending 11/3/2019, NBD Aligned. Cited in IRI, “Understanding the Plant-Based Consumer: A Deeper
Look Into Plant-Based Purchase Trends, Demographics, Perceptions and Usage,” 1/16/2020
• In terms of consumer spending, refrigerated PBDA “milk” recorded the highest retail dollar sales per
buyer, followed by cheese, yogurt and shelf stable PBDA “milk.”
PBDA "Milk," "Yogurt" and "Cheese":
$ Sales per Buyer 2019 (One-Year Change)
$40.0 $36.5 (↑$0.5)
$28.4 (↑$2.5)
$30.0
$19.5 (↓$0.5) $17.3 (↑$0.1)
$20.0
$10.0
$0.0
Refrigerated Cheese Yogurt Shelf-Stable Milk
Milk
Source: IRI Panel, All Outlets, 52 weeks ending 11/3/2019, NBD Aligned. Cited in IRI, “Understanding the Plant-Based Consumer: A Deeper
Look Into Plant-Based Purchase Trends, Demographics, Perceptions and Usage,” 1/16/2020
1.8 17.5
17
($ BILLIONS)
1.6 16.5
16
1.4
15.5
1.2 15
14.5
1 14
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 (52 weeks
ending 10/6)
Source: IRI, U.S. MULOC $ sales for 52 weeks ending 10/6/2019 in Multi Outlet Channels plus Convenience Stores. Cited in IRI, “The Surge
of Plant-Based Foods: Overview of Driving Forces Behind the Growth of Plant-Based Foods,” 11/19/2019
Source: IRI, U.S. MULOC $ sales for 52 weeks ending 11/3/2019 in Multi Outlet Channels (Food/Grocery; Drug; Mass; Walmart; Club,
excluding Costco; Dollar; Military DECA) plus Convenience Stores. Excludes natural and specialty gourmet channels. Cited in IRI,
“Understanding the Plant-Based Consumer: A Deeper Look Into Plant-Based Purchase Trends, Demographics, Perceptions and Usage,”
1/16/2020
• According to SPINS, PBDA “milk” has the highest share of total retail milk sales in the Natural channel:
MULO* 13%
Specialty Gourmet** 20%
Natural*** 41%
*Conventional Multi Outlet (MULO) channel covers >104,000 grocery, drug, mass, dollar, military, and club retail locations
**Specialty Gourmet channel covers “full-format supermarkets” with at least $2 million in annual sales and “SPINS-defined specialty items”
comprising at least 25% of overall volume. Retailers are also defined as “high-end” and “experiential.” (e.g. Gelson’s, Heinen’s, Busch’s)
***Natural channel covers “full-format” stores with at least $2 million in annual sales and at least 50% of sales from
natural/organic products (e.g. Sprouts, Erewhon, Earth Fare; exclude Whole Foods and Trader Joe’s)
Source: SPINSscan Natural and Specialty Gourmet (proprietary) plus SPINSscan Conventional Multi Outlet (powered by IRI) for 52 weeks
ending 12-29-2019. Cited in The Good Food Institute, “Plant-Based Food Retail Market Overview” webinar, 4/2020
“Non-dairy milks are rapidly taking share from the dairy market. In 2014, non-dairy milks made up only 8% of
total milk sales, and currently are expected to nearly triple their market share by 2024. Formerly dominating the
non-dairy milk market, soy-based alternatives are falling victim to cannibalization, as newer options present
more healthful claims… This constant diversification of segments within the market is ultimately beneficial to
overall non-dairy milk growth. Unique non-dairy bases (e.g. bananas, sesame) pique consumers’ interest, while
tried and true dairy alternatives, such as almond and coconut, are beginning to serve as household staples,
particularly for young, affluent consumers…”
- Mintel, Milk and Non-Dairy Milk US, 10/2019
“From cashew to banana ‘milk,’ it seems like nondairy milk alternatives have been popping up in every
imaginable form in recent years. And conventional milk has suffered from the competition…”
- Dairy Foods, 2/6/2020
“Some [dairy] companies are taking an if-you-can’t-beat-'em-join-'em approach. In 2016, New York-based
Elmhurst Dairy shut down after more than 90 years of milk sales. In the wake of the closure, Henry Schwartz,
son of the company’s founder, started Elmhurst 1925 to focus on plant-based milks in partnership with scientist
Cheryl Mitchell. After about three years in business, Elmhurst 1925 has drinks in 6,000 stores, including its
most popular drink, unsweetened almond milk. ‘That’s really the way they should be thinking,’ Elmhurst 1925
chief marketing officer Peter Truby said of traditional milk companies. ‘They should really try to diversify…’”
- USA Today, 2/6/2020
PDBA beverages “are leading the marketing narrative with consumers even though they make up a small
portion of overall sales.”
- Erin Massey, product development manager for Prairie Farms Dairy, quoted in Dairy Foods, 11/4/2019
o The top three uses for dairy milk were added to cereal, as a drink for my child and as an
ingredient in cooking a meal. The top three uses for non-dairy milk were as added to cereal, in
smoothies or shakes and as a drink for my child.
As noted by Mintel, “The majority of adults buy milks, dairy or non-dairy, to use as an
additive.”
o 26% of respondents said they had purchased more dairy milk in the past three months compared
to 38% who had purchased more non-dairy milk in the past three months.
Last 6 87% 34% 42% 56% 52% 42% 34% 20% 23% 14% 11% 9% 9% 9%
months
At least 79% 26% 30% 46% 42% 32% 25% 12% 12% 9% 7% 6% 6% 5%
once per
month
Source: Online survey of 2,006 U.S. adults conducted by IPSOS in October 2018; dual dairy and plant-based milk purchasers = 768; exclusive
dairy milk purchasers = 858; exclusive plant-based milk purchasers = 101; Question 1: “Please indicate how frequently you purchase each of
the following…” Results cited in Dairy Management Inc. (DMI), “Consumer Perceptions: Dairy and Plant based Milks Phase II,” 1/14/2019
Source: IRI, National Consumer Panel Survey, January 2019. Cited in IRI, “Understanding the Plant-Based Consumer: A Deeper Look Into
Plant-Based Purchase Trends, Demographics, Perceptions and Usage,” 1/16/2020
"Compared to cow's milk, do you think unsweetened plant-based milks have MORE, the SAME,
or LESS nutrients (i.e., protein, calcium, vitamin A, and potassium) than cow's milk?"
• IPSOS’ August 2018 survey of 2,010 U.S. adults asked respondents why a manufacturer “would label a
product ‘milk’ even though the product may not contain dairy milk.”
o The most frequent reason selected by exclusive dairy milk purchasers (49%) and dual purchasers
(59%) was “nutrition is similar to dairy milk.”
• Online interviews with 2,200 U.S. adults conducted by Morning Consult in August 2019 – a survey
commissioned by the International Dairy Foods Association (IDFA) – more respondents (39%) said they
prefer 2% milk over other any other milk type, including PBDA “milk,” for themselves and/or their family.
Whole milk was the second most preferred type, for 30% of respondents.
o Additionally, over one third (36%) of respondents believe 2% milk is the most nutritious,
compared to 31% who believe whole milk is the most nutritious.
o 77% of respondents said it is somewhat or very important to have a variety of choices when
purchasing the type of milk they or their family prefers.
• IPSOS’ October 2018 survey solicited opinions on whether PBDA beverages should be labeled as “milk”
if USDA Dietary Guidelines don’t recommend them as dairy milk substitutes. Both the exclusive plant-
based buyers and the dual buyers were significantly more likely to say “yes” than exclusive dairy milk
buyers.
28% 30%
Source: Dairy Management Inc., “Consumer Perceptions: Dairy and Plant-Based Milks Phase II,” 1/2019
• In terms of overall nutrition perceptions, both exclusive plant-based “milk” purchasers (68%) and dual
purchasers (60%) in IPSOS’ August 2018 survey were significantly more likely than exclusive dairy milk
purchasers (24%) to say plant-based milk has “the same nutritional content” as dairy milk.
o Separately, respondents were told that “dairy milk contains 9 essential nutrients and vitamins”
then were asked: “Would you say that plant-based milk contains…”
44% of exclusive plant-based “milk” purchasers and 39% of dual purchasers believed
plant-based “milk” contains the same or more essential nutrients as dairy milk.
o Regarding almond, soy and coconut “milk” specifically, the majority of exclusive plant-based
“milk” purchasers and dual purchasers said these PBDA “milks” contain the same or more
amounts of protein, vitamins and key nutrients (e.g., calcium, potassium) as dairy milk.
Over half of the exclusive dairy milk purchasers thought these plant-based “milks” contain
the same or more levels of protein, vitamins and key nutrients as dairy milk.
Exclusive PBDA “milk” purchasers and dual purchasers were significantly more likely
than exclusive dairy milk purchasers to think these PBDA “milks” have more protein,
vitamins and key nutrients than dairy milk.
“It is quite clear that nutritionally soy milk is the best alternative for replacing cow’s milk in human diet. But,
various issues including the ‘beany flavor’ and presence of anti-nutrients are major hurdles which
encouraged people to look for more alternatives like almond milk, etc., Though, almond milk also has a
balanced nutrient profile and much better flavor, the nutrient density and the total number of calories are not
as rich as that of cow’s milk. Hence, when consuming almond milk care should be taken that various
essential nutrients are available through other sources in the diet in appropriate quantities. Rice milk and
coconut milk cannot act as an ideal alternative for cow’s milk because of limited nutrient diversity, but they
are the options for consumers that are allergic to soybeans and/or almonds.” (Vanga & Raghavan, 2018)
Sales
• According to IRI data published in Dairy Foods, whole milk was the only refrigerated dairy milk
subcategory to achieve sales growth in 2019:
$4,900 (37%)
↑2.7% YoY
$6,900 (52%)
↓3.9% YoY
• Refrigerated varieties account for nearly 97% of total retail dairy milk sales, with shelf stable varieties
accounting for the remaining 3%.
$14,000
$12,000
$10,000
$8,000
$6,000
$4,000
Sources: IRI data cited in Mintel, Milk and Non-Dairy Milk, US, 10/2019 and Dairy Foods, 2/2020
$25,000
$20,000
$15,000
$10,000
$5,000
$-
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020f 2021f 2022f 2023f 2024f
Dairy Milk $19,191 $17,658 $16,477 $16,162 $15,398 $15,200 $14,254 $13,615 $13,048 $12,501 $11,939
Sources: IRI data cited in Mintel, Milk and Non-Dairy Milk, US, 10/2019 and Dairy Foods, 2/2020
*Refrigerated and shelf stable; excludes cream, creamers, condensed/evaporated milk, and powdered milk.
“The largest segment [of U.S. dairy milk sales], skim/low-fat milks, is also the driver of the weakening sales.
While there is potential in flavored and whole milks, which have seen flat or slightly increased sales in recent
years, the segments lack the universal appeal to earn sales sizable enough to balance out the market’s
losses... [However] As fat comes back into fashion, and flavored milks (e.g., chocolate, strawberry) find new
dayparts and purposes, these more decadent dairy milks may help the dairy industry…”
- Mintel, Milk and Non-Dairy Milk US, 10/2019
Top Three Milk Product Types: U.S. Plants & Production (2018)
• The top three milk-producing states in 2019 were California (18.6%), Wisconsin (14.0%) and Idaho
(7.2%).
• Total beverage milk consumed 47.7 billion pounds in 2018, ↓4.1% from 2016.
• Although the total number of fluid milk manufacturing plants ↑15% between 2008 and 2018, the average
production volume during the same 10-year period ↓24%.
480 160
460 140
120
Number of plants
440
100
420
lbs)
80
400
60
380 40
360 20
340 0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Plants 400 392 404 388 399 414 440 456 446 448 459
Average production 136.4 139.9 136.1 139.9 133.9 126.3 115.4 109.7 111.5 108.6 103.9
Sources: U.S. Department of Agriculture, National Agricultural Statistics Service, “Dairy Products: 2018 Summary” (May 2019) and “Dairy
Product: 2017 Summary” (April 2018)
Brand Parent Company Product Portfolio Listed on $ Share of $ Retail Sales** $ Sales
Brand Website* Refrigerated as of 7/2019 Change YoY**
Milk as of
7/2019**
Multiple stores Leading retailer comments • Whole: • Whole: • Whole:
• #1 Walmart sells refrigerated 53.4% $2.59 billion ↑0.9%
dairy milk and “almondmilk”
under its Great Value store • Skim/lowfat: • Skim/lowfat: • Skim/lowfat:
56.8% $3.93 billion
brand. ↓5.9%
• #2 Kroger sells refrigerated
dairy milk through its Kroger
store brand and “almondmilk”
and “oatmilk” through its Simple
Truth store brand.
Note: IRI’s database included over
1,900 private label refrigerated
milk products with unique UPCs
and 2018 retail sales***
“Private label brands dominate the dairy milk market, accounting for more than half of MULO sales. Most dairy
milk consumers consider dairy milk to be a functional necessity, leading them to purchase low-cost, familiar private
label options. Though, private label also recorded sizable sales declines of more than 3% between 2018 and 2019
($227 million). These losses are rivaled by those seen by Dean Foods, whose annual sales decreased by nearly
$160 million… The majority of the growth in the dairy milk market stems from smaller, more premium brands, or
those with unique ingredients and added nutritional benefits. Indeed, lactose free milks from HP Hood and ultra-
filtered premium options saw significant year-over-year sales increases…”
– Mintel, Milk and Non-Dairy Milk US, 10/2019
Horizon Organic’s new High Protein milk “is a perfect example of how Horizon has kept up on trends and
innovated in the space, contributing to growth in the category, especially against consumer wants and needs…
We’re now seeing high-protein milks being used in households as a complement to regular milk as opposed to
being reserved for more niche consumption moments.”
– Domenic Borrelli, president of premium dairy, Danone North America, quoted in Dairy Foods, 11/2019
“Since [the] skim and 1% milk segments are seeing a decline in consumption, we spent time with these
consumers to better understand their needs... What we found was 27% of dairy buyers and 35% of nondairy
buyers say extra protein will encourage them to drink more milk.”
– Meenakshi Treehan, vp of brand and innovation, Organic Valley, quoted in Dairy Foods, 11/2019
America flavored
• Whole (1): plain
• Lowfat (6): plain, vanilla,
chocolate, strawberry,
vanilla with DHA Omega-3,
chocolate with DHA Omega-
3
• Horizon Organic also
markets refrigerated dairy
milk and dry whole milk.
Multiple stores • Private label products hold a 7.7% $19.3 million ↓2.0%
much smaller market share
of this segment compared to
refrigerated milk, in which
private label accounts for
over half of total sales.
*Brand/company websites, accessed 7/2020
**IRI, U.S. MULOC $ sales for 52 weeks ending 7/142019 in Multi Outlet Channels (Food/Grocery; Drug; Mass; Walmart; Club, excluding
Costco; Dollar; Military DECA) – excluding Cream, creamers, condensed/evaporated milk, and powdered milk – cited in Mintel’s Milk and Non-
Dairy Milk – US, 10/2019
***IRI’s syndicated retail sales database; dataset extract provided by ONFL
“Like the refrigerated dairy milk segment, shelf-stable dairy is struggling… Protein is an added benefit that
continues to excel across food and drink products. While milks are naturally high in protein, adding additional
protein sources may help brands compete with high-protein non-dairy substitute, while clear messaging about
the added health benefits can help brands stand out in the saturated space.”
– Mintel, Milk and Non-Dairy Milk US, 10/2019
o Parents and adults without children purchased 2% milk and whole milk more than any other
variety.
“Parents are a primary purchaser of dairy milks; they are more likely than adults without children to purchase
each type of dairy milk. This is particularly true for dairy milks with unique claims (e.g. organic, flavored,
lactose-free)… Adults without children are less invested in their dairy milk choices… but tend to prefer
fundamental, functional dairy milk, as opposed to more niche options. These limited-interest purchasing
habits indicate that they may be more likely to leave the dairy market, perhaps switching to non-dairy milks
instead… Digestive health is one of the primary reasons that consumers are switching away from dairy milks,
with 27% agreeing that they are buying less dairy milk because they are consuming less lactose, and 13%
stating that they’ve developed an intolerance to dairy milk…”
- Mintel, Milk and Non-Dairy Milk, 10/2019
.
o Among the 11% of respondents who purchased less dairy milk this year than last year, the top
reason was due to “consuming less lactose.”
Note: The “other” category included emerging plant bases like hemp and flax.
Source: SPINSscan Natural and Specialty Gourmet (proprietary) + SPINSscan Conventional Multi Outlet (powered by IRI) for 52 weeks
ending 12-29-2019. Cited in The Good Food Institute, “Plant-Based Food Retail Market Overview” webinar, 4/2020
Source: IRI, National Consumer Panel Survey, January 2019. Cited by IRI, “Understanding the Plant-Based Consumer: A Deeper Look Into
Plant-Based Purchase Trends, Demographics, Perceptions and Usage,” 1/16/2020
• David McClements from the University of Massachusetts Amherst authored a 2020 Foods article titled
“Development of next-generation nutritionally fortified plant-based milk substitutes: structural design
principles.” The article contained the following visuals depicting common PBDA “milk” manufacturing
processes:
“Plant-based milk began to gain popularity in the early 2000s due to a mix of product innovation and a
strategic change in merchandising. Indeed, the greatest factor in the growth of plant-based milk was probably
selling it in traditional gable-top packaging alongside cow’s milk in the refrigerated dairy case, as opposed to
aseptic cartons in a segregated center-of-store section. In 2019, retail sales of plant-based milk reached $2
billion, which equates to 14% of the total U.S. retail milk market. Household penetration is currently 41%,
meaning more than four out of 10 U.S. households purchase plant-based milk…”
- The Good Food Institute, 2019 State of the Industry Report: Plant-Based Meat, Eggs and Dairy, 5/2020
Name/Label Includes the Term Leading Brand(s) with Examples from Front Product Labels
“Milk” Applicable Product(s)
One word: plant base combined with Blue Diamond Almond Breeze
“milk”, e.g., almondmilk, coconutmilk, Califia Farms
flaxmilk, oatmilk, soymilk Dream
Good Karma
Oatly
Planet Oat
Private Label (e.g., Target, Wal-Mart)
Silk
Silk Oat Yeah
Two words: compound word with “milk” Private Label (e.g., Whole Foods
plus “beverage” qualifier e.g., coconutmilk Market)
beverage, almondmilk beverage, dairy- So Delicious Dairy Free
free oatmilk Silk Oat Yeah
Name/Label Excludes the Term Leading Brand(s) with Examples from Front Product Labels
“Milk” Applicable Product(s)
Two words: plant base plus “beverage” Dream
qualifier e.g., almond beverage, oat Private Label (e.g., Trader Joe’s)
beverage
Sources: Brand/company websites, accessed 7/2020; Information Resources Inc. (IRI), U.S. MULOC $ sales for 52 weeks ending 10/6/2019
in Multi Outlet Channels (Food/Grocery; Drug; Mass; Walmart; Club, excluding Costco; Dollar; Military DECA) plus Convenience Stores.
Excludes natural and specialty gourmet channels. Cited by IRI, “The Surge of Plant-Based Foods: Overview of Driving Forces Behind the
Growth of Plant-Based Foods,” 11/2019; GFI, 2019 State of the Industry Report: Plant-Based Meat, Eggs and Dairy, 5/2020
• In July 2018, the Plant Based Foods Association (PBFA) released Voluntary Standards for the Labeling of
Plant-based Milks in the United States “to promote consistency in labeling across the category.” Adoption
of the voluntary standards was recommended within one year. They include:
o “The statement of identity should indicate that the milk is plant-based by either:
Including the characterizing ingredient(s) in conjunction with the word ‘milk,’ presented as
a single word (e.g., ‘almondmilk’) or two words (e.g., ‘almond milk’). If the product is
made from more than one characterizing ingredient, this may be indicated through
hyphenation (e.g., ‘almond-cashew milk’), or
The product may be labeled as ‘plant-based milk’ (with or without the hyphen) as long as
the characterizing ingredient(s) is/are also clearly stated on the principal display panel
and the information panel.
o For either option, where feasible, all words in the statement of identity should be in the same type
size, the same font and color, and appear on the same line.
o All plant-based milks should clearly be labeled as ‘dairy-free’ (preferable) or ‘nondairy’ in a
prominent position on the principal display panel.”
o Almond milk was the top purchase choice among all respondents across race/ethnicity, followed
by soy milk and coconut milk.
o Among the 38% of respondents who were purchasing more non-dairy milk than last year, the top
three reasons were the perception that it is healthier than dairy milk, taste and it “makes me feel
better.”
• According to IPSOS’ October 2018 survey of U.S. adults, 56% had ever purchased plant-based “milk.”
o Among plant-based “milk” buyers, the top plant bases purchased in the past six months were:
Almond (71%)
Coconut (49%)
Soy (43%)
Cashew (30%)
• Twelve FDA-commissioned focus groups were conducted by RTI International in three U.S. cities in April-
May 2019. Interviews with the 112 participants revealed themes including:
o Participants in 11 of the 12 groups liked that PBDA “milk” does not cause issues with lactose
intolerance compared to cow’s milk.
o Participants in nine groups believed PBDA “milk” was a healthier alternative (e.g., less calories,
fat, sugar); however, participants in eight of the groups said it is less nutritious than cow’s milk.
o Participants in 11 groups said they like PBDA “milk” because it “tastes better” or has “more flavor
than [cow’s] milk,” but participants in eight of the groups said they dislike the flavor compared to
cow’s milk.
o Participants in seven groups noted the high price of plant-based products.
o Participants in nine groups liked the longer expiration or shelf-life of PBDA “milk” compared to
cow’s milk.
o Participants in six groups said PBMA “milks” are processed or contained a lot of unclear
ingredients.
Additionally, participants in four of eight groups who were asked what ingredients PBMA
“milks” contain said they did not know.
Dairy Foods’ 2018 State of the Industry Report quoted Irina Gerry, Silk brand manager, as saying: “With more
choices than ever before in plant-based, consumers are not willing to accept compromises in taste or
nutrition... Continuous taste improvements in plant-based beverages have brought broader taste appeal,
expanding consumer acceptance and growing household penetration for the category to over 35% in the last
three years.” Gerry reportedly “noted that Silk Soy underwent a major improvement in taste and nutrition in
2014, with Silk Almond following in 2017. And in 2016, Silk Protein Nutmilk — featuring pea protein blended
with the brands almond and cashew milks — made its debut in original and vanilla flavors; a chocolate flavor
was added in 2017. The line delivers 10 grams of plant-based protein per serving.”
Source: IRI, U.S. MULOC $ sales for 52 weeks ending 10/6/2019 in Multi Outlet Channels (Food/Grocery; Drug; Mass; Walmart;
Club, excluding Costco; Dollar; Military DECA) plus Convenience Stores. Excludes natural and specialty gourmet channels. Cited by
IRI, “The Surge of Plant-Based Foods: Overview of Driving Forces Behind the Growth of Plant-Based Foods,” 11/19/2019
Source: IRI, U.S. MULOC $ sales for 52 weeks ending 11/3/2019 in Multi Outlet Channels (Food/Grocery; Drug; Mass; Walmart; Club,
excluding Costco; Dollar; Military DECA) plus Convenience Stores. Excludes natural and specialty gourmet channels. Cited by IRI,
“Understanding the Plant-Based Consumer: A Deeper Look Into Plant-Based Purchase Trends, Demographics, Perceptions and Usage,”
1/16/2020
Natural*** 22%
Specialty Gourmet** 6%
MULO* 3%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%
*Conventional Multi Outlet (MULO) channel covers >104,000 grocery, drug, mass, dollar, military, and club retail locations
**Specialty Gourmet channel covers “full-format supermarkets” with at least $2 million in annual sales and “SPINS-defined specialty items”
comprising at least 25% of overall volume. Retailers are also defined as “high-end” and “experiential.” (e.g. Gelson’s, Heinen’s, Busch’s)
***Natural channel covers “full-format” stores with at least $2 million in annual sales and at least 50% of sales from
natural/organic products (e.g. Sprouts, Erewhon, Earth Fare; exclude Whole Foods and Trader Joe’s)
Source: SPINSscan Natural and Specialty Gourmet (proprietary) plus SPINSscan Conventional Multi Outlet (powered by IRI) for 52 weeks
ending 12-29-2019. Cited by The Good Food Institute, “Plant-Based Food Retail Market Overview” webinar, 4/2020
• Over half of respondents had purchased spoonable dairy yogurt for themselves in the past three months
compared to 25% who had purchased spoonable non-dairy yogurt:
“Yogurt fatigue is kicking in. The yogurt market is oversaturated. Attempts to fend off declining sales with
consistent innovation and diversification of product lines has led to crowded shelves that consumers struggle
to navigate. As a result, consumers are becoming apathetic toward innovations. Indeed, nearly a third of
consumers report that they are not interested in yogurt innovations… Indeed, the majority of consumers have
not changed their yogurt purchases year-over-year despite consistent product launches...
Spoonable and drinkable yogurt formats are both popular for children, with 53% of consumers with kids
buying spoonable yogurt and 41% buying yogurt drinks (dairy or non-dairy). Despite the successful launches
of several mass-market nondairy brands, dairy products continue to dominate. However, 18% of parents
wish that there were more non-dairy options targeted toward children; this increases with younger Millennial
parents…”
- Mintel, Yogurt and Yogurt Drinks US, 11/2019
• See Appendix D for nutrient claims for all 43 yogurts in the samples.
PLAIN/UNSWEETENED Yogurt Calories Fat (g) Protein Calcium Potassium Riboflavin Vitamin Vitamin A Vitamin D Total Claimed
Product (kcal) (g) (mg; % of (mg; % of (mg; % of B12 (mcg; (mcg RAE; (mcg; % of Sugar (g) Live &
new DV) new DV) new DV) % of new % of new new DV) Active
DV) DV) Cultures
Dairy yogurt: ranges for 6 sample 70-120 0-6 6-8 220-320 290-390 NS NS NS 0-1.9 7-10 Yes (100%)
products (170 mg serving)
GREEK Dairy yogurt: ranges for 6 90-170 0-9 14-17 90-190 110-240 NS NS NS 0-2 2-5 Yes (100%)
sample products (170 mg serving)
PBDA “yogurt”: ranges for 7 sample 80-190 4-15 0-8 64-488 0-440 NS 0.9-1.7 NS 0-8 0-6 Yes (100%)
products (170 mg serving)
GREEK PBDA “yogurt”: ranges for 2 160 10 11 121 87 NA NS NS 0 2 Yes (100%)
sample products (150 mg serving)
SWEETENED Yogurt Product Calories Fat (g) Protein Calcium Potassium Riboflavin Vitamin Vitamin A Vitamin D Total Claimed
(kcal) (g) (mg; % of (mg; % of (mg; % of B12 (mcg; (mcg RAE; (mcg; % of Sugar (g) Live &
new DV) new DV) new DV) % of new % of new new DV) Active
DV) DV) Cultures
Dairy yogurt: ranges for 4 sample 100-140 0-7 5-7 180-200 240-280 NS NS 0 1.4-1.6 14-22 Yes (100%)
products (150 mg serving)
GREEK Dairy yogurt: ranges for 5 110-140 0-4.5 11-15 150 200 NS NS NS 0-1.6 12-16 Yes (100%)
sample products (150 mg serving)
PBDA “yogurt”: ranges for 11 sample 80-190 0-7 <1-6 40-350 0-270 NS 1.27-1.30 NS 0-6 4-18 Yes (100%)
products (150 mg serving)
GREEK PBDA “yogurt”: ranges for 2 180-190 9 10 104-105 77-81 NS NS NS 0 12 Yes (100%)
sample products (150 mg serving)
Retail Sales
• According to IRI data cited by Mintel, the total yogurt and yogurt drinks market was estimated to achieve
$8.2 billion in retail sales in 2019, with spoonable varieties accounting for 87% of sales and the
supermarket channel accounting for 60% of sales.
o Mintel commented: “Forecasts show that total yogurt market sales will fall to $7.4 billion by 2024,
a 10.5% decrease from 2019’s estimated sales.”
o A May 2020 Dairy Foods article reported total refrigerated yogurt sales were $7.1 billion for the 52
weeks ending 1/26/2020 (↓0.7%).
$9,000
$8,000
$7,000
$6,000
$5,000
$4,000
$3,000
$2,000
$1,000
$-
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019e 2020f 2021f 2022f 2023f 2024f
Spoonable $7,840 $8,057 $7,915 $7,633 $7,293 $7,144 $6,965 $6,726 $6,481 $6,261 $6,058
Yogurt drinks/kefir $723 $802 $909 $1,054 $1,078 $1,098 $1,149 $1,208 $1,254 $1,291 $1,319
$6,000
$5,000
$4,000
$3,000
$2,000
$1,000
$-
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019e
Others
17.8% Groupe Danone SA
($1.28 billion) 33.0%
($2.38 billion)
Parmalat SpA
5.8%
($416.1 million)
General Mills Inc Chobani LLC
17.3% 18.4%
($1.24 billion) ($1.32 billion)
“According to [Danone’s Pedro] Silveira, lower-sugar options are the fastest growing segment in yogurt
today. Danone North America recently invested in sugar reduction with its Two Good Greek yogurt line. The
yogurt is slow-strained with a patent-pending process down to 2 grams of sugar per 5.3-ounce cup…
Building on Two Good’s success, Danone North America debuted Activia Less Sugar & More Good at the
beginning of this year. The line contains only 9 grams of sugar, 40% less than regular Activia Greek nonfat
yogurt; its sweetness comes from honey and fruits instead...”
- Pedro Silveira, president, U.S. yogurt, Danone North America, cited in Dairy Foods, 4/9/2020
Yogurt brands “have attempted to compensate for poor performance with increased innovation, ultimately
crowding the marketplace and leading to cannibalization as consumers try product after product without
increasing total purchases… Yogurt is a popular snack choice for children, as it is a convenient source of
key nutrients. Major brands have seen strong growth from their kid-centric lines, particularly in the drinkable
segment…”
- Mintel, Yogurt and Yogurt Drinks US, 11/2019
“Strong brand names, such as the Dannon Company (Dannon), Yoplait and Fage USA Dairy Industry Inc.
have long dominated the US industry. Industry newcomer Chobani LLC (Chobani) made waves by
launching its Greek-style yogurt, which boasts more protein and fewer calories than other yogurt varieties.
Although Chobani still holds the largest share of that segment, the company has forfeited some ground to
Dannon after its introduction of a Greek-style yogurt. As Chobani launches its new brand of child-focused
products, it is expected to take some of Dannon’ s market share for that market segment…”
- IBISWorld, Yogurt Production in the US, 12/2018
According to data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture, there were 162 dairy yogurt production plants in the
country in 2018.
• Total yogurt production, excluding frozen yogurt, was 4.4 billion pounds in 2018, ↓2.0% from 2016.
o The top two yogurt-producing states were New York (15.7%) and California (9.5%).
o According to IBISWorld, top manufacturer Dannon “runs the world’s largest yogurt manufacturing
plant, located in Minster, Ohio, producing more than three million cups of yogurt per day.”
Yogurt (Plain & Flavored; Excludes Frozen Yogurt): Production by State (2016-2018)
State Number of Number of Number of Production Production Production
Plants Plants Plants 2016 (million 2017 (million 2018 (million
2016 2017 2018 lbs) lbs) lbs)
California 21 20 20 395 442 415
New York 37 39 38 677 707 690
Oregon 3 3 3 52 49 42
Texas 4 3 3 51 34 32
Other States1 97 105 98 3,283 3,245 3,209
Total 162 170 162 4,458 4,478 4,388
1
Fewer than three plants reported or individual plant operations could be disclosed.
Sources: U.S. Department of Agriculture, National Agricultural Statistics Service, “Dairy Products: 2018 Summary” (May 2019) and “Dairy
Product: 2017 Summary” (April 2018)
“Over the next five years, industry growth may be spurred onward by technological advancements in the
yogurt production process. Companies will look to new technologies to streamline their operations and
produce a variety of yogurts without overhauling their production systems. For example, Arla Foods
Ingredients, a Sweden-based company, has introduced a variety of proteins that enable yogurt manufacturers
to produce Greek-style yogurt without employing customary filtration systems. This new technique is expected
to enable traditional yogurt manufacturers to compete on the basis of quality and price… many manufacturers
have begun producing protein-enriched blends of yogurt that have similar consistencies and textures as
Greek-style yogurt, without the filtration or whey removal process… as demand for Greek-style yogurt
continues increasing, new filtration systems and thickening agents are likely to appear on the market that
enables low-cost production of Greek-style yogurt…”
- IBISWorld, Yogurt Production in the US, 12/2018
Chobani 5 total Greek varieties: all with lowfat milk 7.9% $71.6 ↑2.3%
• Blended Drinks: 5 lowfat flavors million
• Chobani also sells four lactose free shakes and
PBDA coconut drinks.
“Yogurt drinks, including kefir, are taking share from the spoonable yogurt segment... However, while growing, the
year-over-year increases of drinkable yogurt sales have started to slow.”
- Mintel, Yogurt and Yogurt Drinks US, 11/2019
• In a September 2019 survey, 1,500 U.S. adults who had purchased dairy yogurt in the past three months
chose Greek more than any other style, and flavored varieties more than any other.
o Kefir was the least purchased style, and full-fat was the least purchased variety.
o Among these respondents, 67% said they were purchasing the same amount or less of dairy
yogurt compared to last year.
Source: SPINSscan Natural and Specialty Gourmet (proprietary) + SPINSscan Conventional Multi Outlet (powered by IRI) for 52 weeks
ending 12-29-2019. Cited in The Good Food Institute, “Plant-Based Food Retail Market Overview” webinar, 4/2020
$150
$100
$56m (20%)
$50 $13m (4.5%)
$0
MULO Specialty Gourmet Natural
Source: SPINSscan Natural and Specialty Gourmet (proprietary) + SPINSscan Conventional Multi Outlet (powered by IRI) for 52 weeks
ending 12-29-2019. Cited in The Good Food Institute, “Plant-Based Food Retail Market Overview” webinar, 4/2020
Source: IRI, National Consumer Panel Survey, January 2019. Cited in IRI, “Understanding the Plant-Based Consumer: A Deeper Look Into
Plant-Based Purchase Trends, Demographics, Perceptions and Usage,” 1/16/2020
“Non-dairy yogurts provide a much-needed opportunity for growth in the market. Though total sales are
declining, the percentage of consumers buying yogurt has increased between 2018 and 2019 with the launch
of mass-market non-dairy yogurt lines. Brands may be able to recover some of the sales lost by major
segments as dairy-free products become more accessible…”
- Mintel, Yogurt and Yogurt Drinks US, 11/2019
• In a recently-published article titled “A Novel Approach to Structure Plant-Based Yogurts Using High
Pressure Processing,” researchers from Singapore stated:
o “Current plant-based yogurts are made by the fermentation of plant-based milks. Although this
imparts fermented flavors and probiotic cultures, the process is relatively longer and often leads
to textural issues. The protein content of these plant-based yogurts is also lower than their dairy
counterparts. To overcome these challenges, this paper explores the high pressure processing
(HPP) of plant protein ingredients as an alternative structuring strategy for plant-based yogurts…”
Name/Label Includes the Term Leading Brand(s) with Examples from Front Product Labels
“Milk” and/or “Yogurt” Applicable Product(s)
One or more words: plant base combined Silk Oat Yeah
with “milk” and/or “yogurt”, e.g., Forager Project
oatmilkgurt, cashewmilk yogurt
Name/Label Includes the Term Leading Brand(s) with Examples from Front Product Labels
“Yogurt” AND Qualifier(s) Applicable Product(s)
Multiple words: plant base, “yogurt” and Silk
qualifier(s) e.g. almondmilk yogurt So Delicious Dairy Free
alternative, dairy-free yogurt alternative Califia Farms
made with soy, oatmilk yogurt alternative, Forager Project
coconutmilk yogurt alternative, dairy free Good Plants
yogurt cultured nutmilk drink, probiotic Daiya
plant-based yogurt alternative, coconut & Blue Diamond Almond Breeze
cashew yogurt alternative, plant-based Stonyfield Organic
protein yogurt, almondmilk probiotic
yogurt alternative, yogurt alternative, dairy
free soy yogurt
Name/Label Excludes the Term Leading Brand(s) with Examples from Front Product Labels
“Yogurt” Applicable Product(s)
Plant-based oat blend (no dairy), Coconut Chobani
non-dairy blend
Sources: Brand/company websites, accessed 7/2020; Information Resources Inc. (IRI), U.S. MULOC $ sales for 52 weeks ending 10/6/2019
in Multi Outlet Channels (Food/Grocery; Drug; Mass; Walmart; Club, excluding Costco; Dollar; Military DECA) plus Convenience Stores.
Excludes natural and specialty gourmet channels. Cited by IRI, “The Surge of Plant-Based Foods: Overview of Driving Forces Behind the
Growth of Plant-Based Foods,” 11/19/2019; GFI, 2019 State of the Industry Report: Plant-Based Meat, Eggs and Dairy, 5/2020
• In May 2020, the Plant Based Foods Association (PBFA) released Voluntary Standards for the Labeling of
Plant-based Yogurt in the United States “to promote consistency in labeling across the category.” Adoption
of the voluntary standards was recommended within one year. Labeling standards include:
o “Qualifiers: The statement of identity should clearly indicate that the product is plant-based by the
use of one or more following phrases, or a comparable qualifier:
Plant-Based Yogurt
Dairy-Free Yogurt
Non-Dairy Yogurt
Characterizing Ingredient) Yogurt (e.g. Soymilk Yogurt)
o Identification of Plant-Based Characterizing Ingredient: All plant-based yogurts should indicate the
characterizing ingredient(s) used to produce the yogurt on the principal display panel or the
informational panel on the product package by using at least one of the following options:
Placing the name of the characterizing ingredient(s) in front of the word yogurt…
o Identifying that the product is ‘made with’ or ‘made from’, followed by the characterizing ingredient,
such as ‘made with soy’, ‘made from coconut’, ‘made from almonds’; or by using the common
plant-based milk names such as ‘soymilk’, ‘almondmilk’, or ‘cashewmilk’. If the product is made
from more than one characterizing ingredient, this may be indicated through hyphenation (e.g.,
‘almond-cashew milk’).
o The product may be also labeled as ‘plant-based yogurt’ (with or without the hyphen) as long as
the characterizing ingredient(s) is (are) also clearly stated on the principal display panel or the
information panel.
o All plant-based yogurts should clearly be labeled as ‘dairy-free’ (preferable) or ‘non-dairy’ in a
prominent position on the principle display panel.”
• A 2019 survey found that almond and coconut were the top two purchased plant bases, and more
respondents purchased flavored varieties than plain.
o Mintel notes that “while brands were slower to capitalize on oat milk as a beverage, it has already
been used as a base in numerous yogurt launches and will likely continue to grow in popularity.”
• A 2017 Comax Flavors survey of 250 U.S. adults also found that the top two purchase drivers for PBDA
yogurt were health benefits and flavor:
“The non-dairy yogurt market is still developing. Penetration is low, with only 40% of consumers having
made a purchase in the past three months, compared to the 75% that purchased dairy yogurt…
Non-dairy products are perceived to be healthful, though they fall short of consumers’ high expectations for
nutritional values; instead non-dairy yogurts depend on natural, organic, and free-from claims. Dairy
yogurts, on the other hand, boast higher protein content and digestive health benefits. Reformulating and
repositioning non-dairy yogurts to include these added-value benefits could encourage active consumers to
increase their purchases…”
- Mintel, Yogurt and Yogurt Drinks US, 11/2019
• 1977: Swan Foods/The Soybeanery developed and launched the first soy yogurt with fermented soymilk,
coining the term “Soyogurt.”
• 1985: Tomsun Food International created Jofu, a non-fermented product made from silken tofu.
• 1991: White Wave introduced “Dairyless” line of non-fermented soy yogurts.
• 2001: Stonyfield Farm launched O’Soy cultured organic soy yogurt.
• 2008: Turtle Mountain, part of White Wave, launched So Delicious Dairy Free soy yogurt.
• 2012: Turtle Mountain launched So Delicious Dairy Free Greek style coconut yogurt; Hain Celestial
introduced Almond Dream non-dairy yogurt
• 2013: WhiteWave Foods launched Silk soy yogurt.
• 2015: Kite Hill launched its artisan almond milk yogurt; Hain Celestial launched Coconut Dream non-dairy
yogurt.
• 2016: Daiya Foods introduced dairy- and soy-free Greek style yogurt; Forager Project launched organic
dairy-free yogurt.
• 2017: Good Karma Foods launched dairy-free yogurt.
• 2018: WhiteWave Foods launched Vega Protein yogurt alternatives.
• 2019: Danone’s Dannon launched Good Plants almondmilk probiotic yogurt alternatives, Silk introduced
Oat Yeah “oatmilk” yogurt alternatives and So Delicious Dairy Free introduced a line of Oatmilk Yogurt
Alternatives; Blue Diamond added PBDA “yogurt” to its Almond Breeze product line; Daiya Foods
launched dairy-free yogurt mix-ins; Chobani launched coconut-based yogurt.
• 2020: Yoplait launched Oui coconut dairy alternative yogurt; Kite Hill introduced coconut milk yogurt;
Chobani introduced oat blend PBDA yogurt; Danone’s So Delicious Dairy Free introduced coconut milk
yogurt alternative mix-ins, and Activia launched almondmilk probiotic yogurt alternative.
Sales
• According to SPINS, the plant-based share of the total cheese market was 1% in 2019.
• Plant-based “cheese” sales ↑51% 2017-2019, while dairy cheese sales only ↑2% 2017-2019.
• SPINS reported that the plant-based “cheese” share of total cheese sales varied by channel:
Natural*** 17%
Specialty Gourmet** 2%
MULO* 1%
In its 2020 Key Players publication, Cheese Market News noted that “These [49] companies are innovating and
adapting to meet the needs and demands of consumers – many are adding plant-based alternatives into their
product offerings, experimenting with new flavors and offering more variety in on-the-go dairy product options.”
• In early 2020, Schuman Cheese “launched a plant-based line, Vevan Foods… the line was developed
by artisan dairy cheesemakers. ‘People incorporate plant-based options into their diet for a wide range
of reasons, but that doesn’t mean they want to sacrifice the ability to enjoy their favorite foods,’ says
Keith Schuman, business unit lead for Vevan Foods. ‘Market data proves that plant-based eaters miss
familiar flavors like cheese, and that’s what Vevan delivers.’ Initially being offered to foodservice and
ingredients customers, the line spans three flavors, all offered in shred, slice and block formats – Vevan
Ched, Vevan Mozza and Vevan P’Jac. The line was launched for retail customers in mid-May.”
• In 2019, Whitehall Specialties’ new CEO established “a new division, NewFields plant-based cheese,
to focus exclusively on good-tasting, plant-based cheese alternative products both for direct sale and
as a co-manufacturing partner with selected industry players… these alternative cheese products are
currently available in a Cheddar flavor and will soon be available in a range of other flavors such as
Mozzarella, Blue cheese, Pepper Jack and Parmesan. The company is making products in block, shred
and chunk formats for both retail and foodservice… the company looks to launch a broad plant-based
product range directly and in support of its co-manufacturing and private label partners… NewFields
plant based interest has grown significantly in line with consumer trends towards plant-based diets…”
• Winona Foods “is expanding its footprint in plant-based cheese substitutes… ‘More of the cream
cheese-style spreads, dips and quesos are now available in plant-based.’…”
“Non-dairy cheese posts largest gaps in consumer perception against its dairy equivalent, compared to other
dairy subcategories… Vegan/dairy-free cheese falls far short of dairy cheese on the two highest priority
attributes: tasty and good value. Dairy-free cheese taste likely continues to suffer from early generation
products that compromised taste for the sake of a passable alternative.”
- Jane Hurh, Mintel, 4/2019
*per serving; Calories, Protein, Calcium (new DV 1300 mg), Magnesium (new DV 420 mg), Phosphorus (new 1250 mg), Potassium (new 4700 mg), Riboflavin (new DV 1.3 mg), Vitamin B12
(new DV 2.4 mcg), Vitamin A (new DV 900 mcg RAE), Vitamin D (new DV 20 mcg) and Sodium (new DV 2300 mg). Sources include Mintel’s Global New Products Database; brand/company
websites accessed 7/2020
**IRI, U.S. MULOC $ sales for 52 weeks ending 10/6/2019 in Multi Outlet Channels (Food/Grocery; Drug; Mass; Walmart; Club, excluding Costco; Dollar; Military DECA) plus Convenience
Stores. Excludes natural and specialty gourmet channels. Cited by IRI in “The Surge of Plant-Based Foods: Overview of Driving Forces Behind the Growth of Plant-Based Foods,” 11/2019; The
GFI, 2019 State of the Industry Report: Plant-Based Meat, Eggs and Dairy, 5/2020
Additional Notes:
• New FDA Daily Values are rounded percentages for adults and children ≥ 4 years.
• NS = not stated on nutrition label. The U.S. FDA’s new Nutrition Facts Label (NFL) does not require reporting magnesium, phosphorus, riboflavin or vitamins A or B12 levels
Processed cheese
15.4%
Natural cheese
71.5%
Source: IRI, U.S. MULOC $ sales for 52 weeks ending 8/11/2019 in Multi Outlet Channels (Food/Grocery; Drug; Mass;
Walmart; Club, excluding Costco; Dollar; Military DECA) plus Convenience Stores. Excludes natural and specialty
gourmet channels. Cited in Dairy Foods, 11/2019
$24,000
$23,000
$22,000
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019e 2020f 2021f 2022f 2023f 2024f
$20,000
$18,000
$16,000
$14,000
$12,000
$10,000
$8,000
$6,000
$4,000
$2,000
$-
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019e 2020f 2021f 2022f 2023f 2024f
Source: IRI Infoscan data cited in Mintel, Cheese US, 10/2019
Mintel’s evaluation of new product launches “shows a distinct interest in white cheddar cheeses. As a group,
these launches have considerably outperformed cheese launches overall… Furthermore, the emergence of
white cheddar options appears to be growing the category as a whole. Of the consumers who would likely or
definitely buy white cheddar cheese, 63% would make it an additional purchase to other cheeses…”
- Mintel, Cheese US, 10/2019
“Although exceptional progress has been made in the mechanization and automation of cheese making, there
is still a need to refine the cheese making process to consistently produce cheese with the desired
characteristics. Membrane processing of milk and whey will offer excellent opportunities to manufacture cheese
with consistent functionality and use for milk components in an economically sound manner, but only if all the
fractions of milk are used. Membrane processing also offers a means to recover water, and there is great
potential for this water to be recycled in the cheese plant.
Changes to Code of Federal Regulations Title 21 (CFR, 2017) will be necessary to allow the use of milk
separated through membrane processing for cheese making, and it will be a priority for the cheese industry. A
point of concern is the necessity of using terms on the labels of cheese that was produced from milk using
membrane processing (i.e., UF, diafiltration, and microfiltration). These terms are not well understood by
consumers and may lead to apprehension about cheeses made using milk concentrated or separated by these
processes...”
- M.E. Johnson, Center for Dairy Research, University of Wisconsin, Madison, in Journal of Dairy Science, 2017
As of July 2019, private label products held the highest market share of cheese, accounting for 39% of total retail
sales (↑3.3% from 2018) and 46% of natural cheese retail sales (↑5.3% from 2018).
• Kraft Heinz was the top seller of branded retail cheese across four main segments (natural, processed,
cream cheese and cottage cheese), with a 25.1% share of total cheese sales.
o Kraft Heinz owns four top brands – Kraft, Philadelphia, Cracker Barrel and Breakstone’s. Of these
four brands, only Philadelphia cream cheese recorded sales growth in 2019 (↑5.2%).
o In late 2019, Kraft Heinz's $100 million venture capital fund – Evolv Ventures – led a $3.5 million
seed investment round in New Culture, a New Zealand-based start-up that is using fermentation
to produce proteins for dairy-free cheese.
• The #2 and #3 branded dairy cheese companies, Sargento Foods (Sargento brand) and Saputo Cheese
USA (Frigo brand), earned only 5.8% and 2.8% shares of sales, respectively.
o According to Cheese Market News’ 2020 Key Players publication, Saputo “is committed to
diversifying its product portfolio by pursuing more plant-based opportunities... Saputo will look to
increase its presence in this category through a series of investments in manufacturing, sales and
distribution. To lead its plans, the company has appointed a senior vice president, business
development, Plant-Based Food.”
• Collectively, the top three companies market 350 dairy cheese products on their brand websites.
o IRI’s database included over 650 Universal Product Codes (UPCs) from these top companies.
• Of the leading brands, BelGioioso recorded the highest sales growth in 2019 (↑12.8%).
Brand Parent Current Product Portfolio Currently $ Share as of $ Retail $ Sales
Company Listed on Brand Website* 7/2019** Sales** Change
as of YoY**
7/2019
Multiple stores Selected retailer comments 39% total $4.23 billion ↑3.3%
• Whole Foods sells dairy cheese and cheese
vegan “cheese alternative” under its ↑5.3%
365 store brand. (46% natural
(natural)
• Aldi sells dairy cheese through its cheese
Emporium Selection and Happy segment; 17% ↓6.7%
Farms brands and “vegan processed (processed)
mozzarella style shreds” under its cheese
Earth Grown Vegan store brand. segment)
Note: IRI’s database included over
5,300 private label natural cheese
products with unique UPCs and 2018
retail sales***
Kraft Heinz 201 natural and processed cheese Kraft Heinz $2.74 billion ↓3.4%
products 25.1% total ($1.26 (natural)
• Shredded: 70 products with flavors cheese billion ↓3.1%
including Hot Habanero, Italian with natural; (processed)
a Touch of Philadelphia Creamy (Kraft Cheese $1.48 billion
Melt, Parmesan and Pepper Jack brand 9.8% processed)
• Slices: 54 products with flavors natural cheese
including White American, Smoky segment;
Bacon Cheddar and Extra Sharp 53.2%
White Cheddar processed
• Blocks: 38 products with flavors cheese
including Monterey Jack Cheese segment)
Cracker Cuts, Chipotle and Jalapeño
• Cubes: 5 products including 2% Milk
Cheddar & Monterey Jack
• String & Twists: 16 products
including Jalapeño String Cheese
and Mozzarella & Cheddar Twists
• Parmesan: 18 products including
Shredded Parmesan and Grated
Parmesan & Romano Cheese
Note: IRI’s database included 263
Kraft natural cheese products and 102
processed cheese products with
unique UPCs and 2018 retail sales***
“While most name brands failed to make gains, collectively private label brands outpaced the growth of the
category. Two leading brand bright spots for the category were Tillamook and BelGioioso, both of whom are
leveraging natural, artisan and quality as distinct selling points. These companies definitely lean more
gourmet, particularly BelGioioso. Tillamook, meanwhile, is capitalizing on a natural promise…”
- Mintel, Cheese US, 10/2019
“Snackability is one of the most significant ongoing trends [in natural cheese]… Sargento launched its
Balanced Breaks cheese snack line… in 2015, and the line ended up being the company’s most successful
launch ever… And [in 2019], Sargento expanded on that launch with its Sargento Sunrise Balanced
Breaks…
• Snacking isn’t the only trend playing out in the cheese segment… A growing assortment of varieties
also is drawing consumers in… The trend toward variety fits in with the increasingly adventurous
American palate…
• Going hand-in-hand with the trend toward variety is the trend centering on flavors… Sargento is
seeing growing interest in bold flavors – think peppers and smoked and aged formulations – for
natural cheese snacks…”
- Dairy Foods’ 2019 State of the Industry Report, 11/2019
• According to an August 2019 Lightspeed/Mintel survey of U.S. adults, the top three varieties of natural
cheese consumed in the past three months were cheddar, mozzarella and parmesan.
o The three least popular varieties were brie, gouda and blue cheese.
o Respondents who ate cheese at least once per week chose natural dairy cheese more frequently
than processed, cottage or cream types.
o The most popular way to eat or use natural cheese was on a sandwich, while the least popular
way was as a dessert.
“Among younger consumers in particular, who are the most frequent snackers, bold and more diverse flavors
and product portfolios are likely to help brands connect and build a sense of loyalty.”
- Mintel, Cheese US, 10/2019
• According to the latest SPINSscan data commissioned by the Plant Based Foods Association (PBFA) in
May 2020, U.S. retail sales of plant-based foods “have considerably outpaced total food sales during the
pandemic, demonstrating that more consumers are turning to plant-based foods amid the crisis.
o The Plant Based Foods Association (PBFA) analyzed data in several “fast-growing categories,”
including “cheese,” for the 16 weeks ending April 19, 2020. Retail sales of PBMA “cheese”
“spiked at 95% (compared to last year) during peak panic buying and grew 54% over four weeks
post panic buying.”
$100
$54m (28%)
$50
$9m (5%)
$0
MULO Specialty Gourmet Natural
Source: SPINSscan Natural and Specialty Gourmet (proprietary) + SPINSscan Conventional Multi Outlet (powered by IRI) for 52 weeks
ending 12-29-2019. Cited in The Good Food Institute, “Plant-Based Food Retail Market Overview” webinar, 4/2020
Source: IRI, National Consumer Panel Survey, January 2019. Cited in IRI, “Understanding the Plant-Based Consumer: A Deeper Look Into
Plant-Based Purchase Trends, Demographics, Perceptions and Usage,” 1/16/2020
"Fully plant-based cheese doesn't work, and we know why… It lacks the crucial component that gives dairy
cheese its signature properties, and that is the casein micelle... We are developing the technology to make those
casein micelles without involving animals in the process."
- Inja Radman, New Culture co-founder and chief sustainability officer, quoted in Food Business News, 9/2019
(Note: Kraft Heinz’ venture capital fund – Evolv Ventures – invested in New Culture in late 2019.)
• Most manufacturers do not publicly disclose their manufacturing processes on their websites. One
exception is a biotech start-up:
o Real Vegan Cheese “is not a cheese substitute! It all starts with regular old yeast. Through
synthetic biology, we engineer our yeast to become milk-protein factories. Our milk proteins are
then combined with water and vegan oil to make vegan milk, which is ultimately converted into
Real Vegan Cheese through standard cheese-making processes - just like cheese made from
cow or goat milk!”
• Three recently-published non-dairy cheese patent applications that describe ingredients and production
processes:
o “Hard non-dairy cheese composition and process for preparation thereof,” WO2020089384A1,
Nestlé
o “System and method for producing a non-dairy cheese product,” WO2018191205A1, Groupe
Danone
o “Soy-based cheese,” WO2015127388A1, Impossible Foods
At the 2019 Natural Products Expo West event, Miyoko’s “debuted organic vegetable-based, nut-free block
“cheeses” fermented with live cultures. The products are made with potatoes and legumes and are said to
have tangy and delicious flavors resembling traditional dairy-based cheddar and pepper jack cheeses.”
- Dairy Foods’ 2019 State of the Industry Report, 11/2019
• Unlike PBDA “milk” and “yogurt” brands, none of the top 10 PBDA “cheese” brands uses the term
“cheese” without qualifiers as its product name or on its front product label.
o A commonly-used qualifying phrase is “cheese alternative.”
o Daiya and Lisanatti Foods use the spelling variation “cheeze” on multiple product offerings.
Name/Label Includes the Term Leading Brand(s) with Examples from Front Product Labels
“Cheese” AND Qualifier(s) Applicable Product(s)
Multiple words: e.g., Dairy Free Cheese Follow Your Heart
Alternative, Cheese Alternative, Cream Go Veggie
Cheese Alternative, Cheese Wheel Made Miyoko’s Creamery
From Plants, Cultured Vegan Cream Lisanatti Foods
Cheese 100% Crafted From Plants, Treeline
Treenut Cheese, Cashew Cream Cheese, Tofutti
Nut Cheese, Better Than Cream Cheese, Kite Hill
Dairy Free Cheese Slices, Cheese
Alternative With Coconut Oil and Vitamin
B12, Cream Cheese Alternative Made
With Almond Milk
Name/Label Includes an Alternate Leading Brand(s) with Examples from Front Product Labels
Spelling of the Term “Cheese” Applicable Product(s)
Deluxe Cheeze Sticks, Deluxe Cheeze Daiya
Sauces, Cream Cheeze Style Spread, Lisanatti Foods
RiceCheeze, SoySation
Sources: Brand/company websites, accessed 7/2020; Information Resources Inc. (IRI), U.S. MULOC $ sales for 52 weeks ending 10/6/2019
in Multi Outlet Channels (Food/Grocery; Drug; Mass; Walmart; Club, excluding Costco; Dollar; Military DECA) plus Convenience Stores.
Excludes natural and specialty gourmet channels. Cited in IRI, “The Surge of Plant-Based Foods: Overview of Driving Forces Behind the
Growth of Plant-Based Foods,” 11/2019; GFI, 2019 State of the Industry Report: Plant-Based Meat, Eggs and Dairy, 5/2020
Among dairy-free cheese consumers, two drivers clearly stand out in importance: organic claims and the
promise of protein, indicating that these consumers seek cleaner offerings that can still deliver on the
nutritional benefits of cheese.”
- Mintel, Cheese US, 10/2019
• 1970s: Fermented tofu begins to be imported into the United States from countries including China, Hong
Kong and Singapore.
• 1980: Galaxy Foods (Go Veggie brand owner) is founded; company claims it is “the first and finest maker
of better-for-you cheese.”
• 1985: Swan Gardens launches Soya Kaas, “a meltable cheese alternative that contained both tofu and
casein (a protein from cow’s milk).”
• 1986: Brightsong Foods introduces Mozzarella Style Tofu-Rella.
• 1988: Two co-founders of the Follow Your Heart health food store launch Earth Island to manufacture its
proprietary products, including cheese alternatives.
• Mid-2000s-2015: According to a 2015 Xinhua article, “For a long time in the past, vegan cheese had
been mostly a rubbery, tasteless pale chunk that resembled tofu, making it far from pleasurable on the
palate for many consumers. Last decade saw a steady rise in the quality and taste of these products,
thanks to the growing popularity of veganism worldwide…”
• 2008: Daiya Foods is founded.
• 2011: Gardener Cheese Company (Treeline brand owner) is founded.
o “Popular vegan cheeses in the United States are made by Daiya, Galaxy Nutritional Foods, and
Chicago Soydairy (Teese)... Most melt, some stretch, the last two are soy-based. But whereas
most Chinese love and use fermented tofu, very few vegans or vegetarians are even aware of it
or even think of it."
• 2012-2015: Miyoko’s Kitchen, Kite Hill and Real Vegan Cheese, a “biohacker” start-up “are spearheading
the change through innovation while at the same time retrieving traditional cheese-making methods…”
• 2014: Kite Hill and Miyoko’s Kitchen are founded.
• 2017: A Washington Post article noted: “There's a revolution happening in the cheese world, and it
doesn't have anything to do with dairy. For decades, vegan cheese has had a bad rap. It was well
deserved. Rubbery and often with an aftertaste compared to pencil erasers or Play-Doh, the plant-based
varieties just did not stand up to the real thing. Now, a new generation of vegan chefs and food
entrepreneurs has figured out what was missing: fermentation…”
• 2019: Fuji Plant Protein Labs (Savannah, GA) launched Nozzarella “plant-based cheese for the
commercial foodservice and pizza markets. The non-GMO soy-based product is produced with the
company’s patented Ultra Soy Separation process.” (Dairy Foods’ 2019 State of the Industry Report)
“Consumer suspicion around dairy's healthfulness, together with growing interest in plant-based eating and
ethically responsible consumption, suggest tremendous opportunity for non-dairy cheese products. For
mainstream omnivores, non-dairy cheese has a long way to go before being regarded as a better choice or an
occasional addition alongside dairy, the way that well-established plant-based milks are now regarded...”
- Jane Hurh, Mintel, 4/2019
A review of recent public submissions to the FDA from 20 companies/organizations with interest in the dairy
industry revealed:
• At the macro level, the majority of these stakeholders – including manufacturers Blue Diamond Almonds,
Kraft Heinz and Nestlé USA and trade associations IDFA and PBFA – support a horizontal approach to
food SOI modernization.
o Two stakeholders – NMPF and NFFC – are opposed to a horizontal approach.
o One stakeholder – CSPI – expressed both support for and opposition to a horizontal approach,
depending on the circumstances.
• At the micro level, multiple stakeholders advocated for:
o Allowing salt substitutes to manufacture lower sodium cheese (CSPI, IDFA)
o Permitting use of ultra-filtered (UF) and micro-filtered (MF) milks in cheese and/or yogurt (IDFA,
GFI, Wisconsin Cheese Makers Association)
o Allowing flexible use of mold inhibitors in cheese (IDFA, Kraft Heinz, NYA)
o Removing milkfat minimums for yogurt (IDFA, NMPF, NYA)
o Requiring a qualifying term with an established term for foods that are distinct from the
standardized food, e.g. the qualifying term “soy” in front of the established term “milk” or the
compound word “soymilk” (Blue Diamond Almonds, Danone North America, GFI)
“As one of the largest producers of both dairy and plant-based products, such as soymilk and almondmilk, we believe that
dairy and plant-based products can and should co-exist to provide consumers a wider array of healthy choices.”
- Danone North America, October 11, 2018, Re: The Food and Drug Administration’s Comprehensive, Multi-Year
Nutrition Innovation Strategy; Request for Comments; Docket No. FDA-2018-N-2381
SWEETENED Yogurt Product Calories Fat Protein Calcium Potassium Riboflavin Vitamin Vitamin A Vitamin D Total Claim Live & Active
(kcal) (g) (g) (mg; % of (mg; % of (mg; % of B12 (mcg; (mcg RAE; (mcg; % Sugar Cultures?
new DV) new DV) new DV) % of new % of new of new (g)
DV) DV) DV)
Dairy yogurt: ranges for 4 sample products 100-140 0-7 5-7 180-200 240-280 NS NS 0 1.4-1.6 14-22 Yes (100%)
(150 mg serving)
Dannon Vanilla Low-Fat Yogurt 140 7 7 Claims 25% NS NS NS 0 NS 22 Yes
Stonyfield Organic Vanilla Whole Milk Yogurt 140 5 5 180 240 NS NS NS 1.6 15 Yes
Stonyfield Organic Vanilla Lowfat Yogurt 110 1.5 6 200 270 NS NS NS 1.5 14 Yes
Stonyfield Organic Blueberry on the Bottom 100 0 6 200 280 NS NS NS 1.4 16 Yes
0% Fat Yogurt
GREEK Dairy yogurt: ranges for 5 sample 110-140 0-4.5 11-15 150 200 NS NS NS 0-1.6 12-16 Yes (100%)
products (150 mg serving)
Dannon Oikos Vanilla Nonfat Greek Yogurt 110 0 12 Claims 10% Claims 2% NS NS NS Claims 8% 15 Yes
Dannon Activia Strawberry Nonfat Greek 120 0 12 150 200 NS NS NS 1.6 16 Yes
Yogurt
Chobani Vanilla Nonfat Greek Yogurt 110 0 12 Claims 10% Claims 4% NS NS NS 0 12 Yes
Chobani Banana & Cream Whole Milk Greek 140 4.5 11 Claims 10% Claims 4% NS NS NS 0 12 Yes
Yogurt
Yoplait Vanilla Greek 100 Nonfat Yogurt 100 0 15 Claims 10% Claims 4% NS NS NS Claims 10% 7 Yes
PBDA “yogurt”: ranges for 11 sample 80-190 0-7 <1-6 40-350 0-270 NS 1.27-1.30 NS 0-6 4-18 Yes (100%)
products (150 mg serving)
Stonyfield Organic Vanilla Dairy Free Yogurt 130 2.5 6 110 270 NS NS NS 0 18 Yes (S. Thermophilus, L.
(with soy milk) Bulgaricus, L. Acidophilus
and Bifidus)
So Delicious Dairy Free Triple Berry Oatmilk 80 0 3 130 100 NS 1.27 NS 2 8 Yes (S. Thermophilus, L.
Yogurt Alternative Bulgaricus,
Bifidobacterium, L.
Acidophilus)
So Delicious Dairy Free Vanilla Coconutmilk 130 4 <1 260 0 NS 1.3 NS 2.1 17 Yes (S. Thermophilus, L.
Yogurt Alternative Rhamnosus, L.
Acidophilus, L. Bulgaricus,
Bifidobacterium spp., L.
*per serving; Calories, Protein, Calcium (new DV 1300 mg), Magnesium (new DV 420 mg), Phosphorus (new 1250 mg), Potassium (new 4700 mg), Riboflavin (new DV 1.3 mg), Vitamin B12
(new DV 2.4 mcg), Vitamin A (new DV 900 mcg RAE) Vitamin D (new DV 20 mcg) and Sodium (new DV 2300 mg). Sources include Mintel’s Global New Products Database; brand/company
websites accessed 7/2020
**IRI, U.S. MULOC $ sales for 52 weeks ending 10/6/2019 in Multi Outlet Channels (Food/Grocery; Drug; Mass; Walmart; Club, excluding Costco; Dollar; Military DECA) plus Convenience
Stores. Excludes natural and specialty gourmet channels. Cited by IRI in “The Surge of Plant-Based Foods: Overview of Driving Forces Behind the Growth of Plant-Based Foods,” 11/2019; The
Good Food Institute, “2019 State of the Industry Report: Plant-Based Meat, Eggs and Dairy,” 5/2020
Additional Notes:
• New FDA Daily Values are rounded percentages for adults and children ≥ 4 years.
• NS = not stated on nutrition label. The U.S. FDA’s new Nutrition Facts Label (NFL) does not require reporting magnesium, phosphorus, riboflavin or vitamins A or B12 levels