Name – SHIVAM YADAV

Section - 3BALLB B
Registration No – 23212136
Semester – 3rd
Subject – INTERNATIONAL RELATION
Topic – Bangladesh's Political Crisis
 Bangladesh's Political Crisis: A Realist Perspective on Domestic
Turmoil and Regional Implications

Introduction
Unfortunately, the South Asian nation of more than 165 million people, Bangladesh, has a very problematic
political landscape as it is heading towards the January 2024 general elections. It is for these reasons that
this article presents the given situation as ideal for analysis using the realist theory of international relations
as regarded both domestic and international politics. Bangladesh, after it became free in 1971 has had a
fairly unstable and unsure political background. The country's political landscape has been dominated by a
rivalry between two major parties: This challenge is particularly always present between the Bangladesh
Awami League (AL) and the Bangladesh nationalist party (BNP). These fierce rivalries, which have
frequently stretched back to local party enmities, have greatly influenced the course of the country. In the
recent past, Bangladesh under this Awami League government of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina has made
tremendous economic progress. The country has greatly improved in poverty eradication, and education
standards as well as accessing of health facilities. But these advancements have come at the price of
democratisation rollback, as critics pointed at the government’s authoritarian drifts and attempts at stifling
the opposition. The current crisis is therefore anchored on the opposition call for electoral reform
particularly on the return of neutral caretaker government to administer the election processes. Due to the
government’s rejection of these demands, protests have erupted, there has been use of force, and anyone
with opposing views has been cracked down.
This internal conflict is not confined to the Bangladeshi borders, but has wider impacts, and repercussions.
Geographically, being a neighbor to India and located in South Asia, and having a tremendously growing
economy, the position of Bangladesh is very important in South Asian power politics. Its stability – or
instability – has a lot of implications for the regional powers or the players such as India and China or for
the global stake holders who are interested in the region. From the standpoint of the realist theory of
International Relations, this perspective will analyze power, security, and interest-based aspect of the crisis
and provide orientation towards possible tracks and general impact upon Bangladesh and the whole region.

The Current Crisis: An Overview

At the current moment, Bangladesh is experiencing a rather severe political crisis; the key subject of concern
is the general election that is scheduled for January 2024. Staring at topmost of all this bonanza is an
ideological battle between the incumbent Prime Minister, Sheikh Hasina led Awami League, and BNP and
their alliance partners. The opposition is urging the prime minister, Sheikh Hasina, to quit from her post and
let an interim non-partisan administration conduct the poll. According to them, it is impossible for any free
and fair elections in the country with the existing leadership, backed such positions by pointing to cases of
allegedly rigged and suppressed political freedoms. This demand is associated with the previous experiences
of Bangladesh in the conduct of elections under non-partisan caretaker governments which was practiced by
the Awami League and was done away with in the year 2011.
On the other hand, the ruling party has equally dismissed such demands this year asserting that elections will
be conducted under the current constitution. They argue that the Election Commission can oversee free &
fair election in the country without the help of caretaker government. Such is the situation that has created so
much unrest all over the country. They have boycotted many events and generalized strikes and often
clashed violently with the agents of the state. In response, the government has launched a comprehensive
crackdown where some thousands of opposition leaders and activists were arrested under various
accusations. The crisis has had fateful consequences not only in the political domain. Economic operations
have been unsettled by numerous strikes and blockade that can alter Bangladesh’s high economic growth
rate. There are now emerging talks of human rights abuses including, extra judicial assassinations and
enforced disappearance.
Globally, the issue has raised concern and people’s attention. There have been various diplomatic and
regional organizations that have called for implementation of dialogue between the government and the
opposition with regard to solving the problems since they prefer the achievement of a stable community
without use of force. The inter- and intrapersonal relations between leaders also make the situation worse.
Sheikh Hasina has been Prime Minister since 2009, while the principal opposition leader is Khaleda Zia of
the BNP, who has been placed under house arrest following corruption charges which are generally believed
by the latter’s supporters to be politically inspired.
The conflict stays high as the election scheduled in January 2024 becomes nearer. The government is keen
on holding elections under the current system while the opposition has vowed not to participate in the polls
without radical change of the system, thus the stage for confrontation is set. This crisis means much more for
modern Bangladesh’s political future, its ability to maintain political stability, to achieve further economic
growth and, in more general terms, to play a role in shaping a post-crisis south Asian region.

A Realist Analysis
For the realism in international relations, power, security, and interests are the major determinants of states’
actions. Originally developed with regard to inter-state relations, knowledge obtained within the framework
of realism can also prove helpful in analyzing domestic political conflict – which is particularly important in
cases where such conflict has clear regional and international implications.
1. The Struggle for Power
• In its essence, the crisis that currently prevails in Bangladesh may be described as a fight for
leadership. Realism has it that international states (and therefore international and domestic actors)
are all in pursuit of power with a view of preserving their existence in an environment that realists
describe as more like the ‘state of war’. It is in this regard, the ruling party Awami League and the
opposition BNP are trying to consolidate their power in Bangladesh politics.
• The incumbent Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s government wants to continue its rule as it has been
in power from 2009. In more realist terms, the failure to provide the required compliance to the
demands of the opposition for the establishment of centralized power can be considered as a rational
effort of retaining political power on the pretext of maintaining potential competitors out of position.
The mass arrests and crackdowns on opposition figures are also seen in the same way as specific
strategies to derail potential troublesome elements for the stability of the regime.
• On the other hand, the BNP and its allies are using different strategies such as agitations on the
streets and moving to the international community to put pressure on the incumbent government and
to make the environment more congenial for their own assumption of power. On a realist plane, their
demand for a caretaker government is premised on the fact that such a situation would restore parity
and perhaps enhance their electoral prospects.
2. Security Dilemma and Domestic Instability
• It is also possible, though counter-intuitive, to explain escalating tensions within Bangladesh by
using the same security-dilemma concept employed in realist theory to analyse the interstate
relations. When each side goes for measures to guarantee it’s security, the other party sees it as a
threat and take counter measures which aggravates the conflict.
• For example, lack of tolerance with the political opposition by the government which justifies this
behaviour claiming that its target is to restore law and order is seen by the political opposition as
something that puts the very existence of the opposition at risk. This leads to more demonstrative and
at times violent reactions from the populace; this in turn strengthens the view of the government in
power that the opposition is a threat to stability and order in the country hence increased repression.
• This cycle of action and reaction, then, has contributed to making the political climate rather charged
and parties more set in their ways and less willing to negotiate.
3. Regional Implications and Balance of Power
 • Realism focuses on the regional balance of power as well as the ways in which internal politics
influence relationships between countries. The crisis has a bearing on the general region of South
Asian Association for Regional Cooperation particularly in its relations of Bangladesh with both
India and China.
• Closely allied to the Awami League government of Bangladesh, India, as the preeminent regional
actor, has always preferred an almighty relationship with Bangladesh. Based on the lens of real
politics and geopolitical interests India supporting the current administration serves its self interest
and strategic security based in the South Asian region. The pro-India government in Dhaka is in the
strategic interests of New Delhi’s security and economic gains.
• But this position, in turn, has been criticized as interference in Bangladesh’s domestic politics mostly
from the opposition party. As noted by Ali Riaz in his article "Bangladesh's Political Crisis: “From a
Regional Perspective” (2023) where it has said “India’s endorsement to the incumbent government
has transformed into a politically sensitive issue, leading to anti-India activism and straining
prospective diplomatic relations.”
• China, being a new world power that wants to increase its influence in South Asia, has taken a
relatively impartial position on the crisis. That said, for the realist theory it can only mean that China
is probably just observing the situation and is waiting for the right chance to strengthen it regional
influence. If there is a major change in the existing political environment of Bangladesh then it will
open the opportunity for the China to expand its economic and strategic influence.
4. Economic Considerations and National Interest
• This is also in conformity with realism, which focuses on the advancement of state interests, which
may be in terms of power or wealth. Since the incumbency started in Bangladesh in the last decade,
the economic growth rate was much higher than in the previous decades, which the ruling political
party has used as an argument of its success. This economic development was nevertheless under
threat from the current political crisis.
• As pointed out by Anu Anwar in "Bangladesh's Democratic Backsliding: Security implications for
the region, published in 2022: The Political instability in this country threatens Bangladesh’s
economic progress and the key foreign investment and trade partners they have been so dependent
on.
• From the strategies of realist power politics angle, the government’s insistence on wanting to retain
political power can still partly be understood by the need to safeguard economic interests and
perpetuate policies that have fuelled growth. On the other hand, the opposition is not only concerned
with seizing political power but also in presenting a different way of managing the economy and,
therefore, of distributing resources.
5. International Community and Strategic Interests
• The international community’s reaction to the Bangladesh crisis also gives a nod to realism. Despite
the appeals for dialogue and nonviolence from other countries and international organizations’
actions have been quite minimalist.
• This could however be explained using the realist theory of power of strategic interests. To many of
the countries in the West, Bangladesh hosting the Rohingya refugees and located in the Bay of
Bengal is strategic. In this respect, there is an aversion of fomenting extreme positions which may
vitrine the relationships or possibly deepen the political instability of the country.
• The United States of America for example has criticized the political condition in Yemen but has not
really put a measure of pressure on the Yemenite authority. This measured response is typical of the
realist doctrine, which focuses not on lofty objectives, such as the bringing democracy to nations, but
on national security interests.

Conclusion
It is now imperative to analyze the ongoing political crisis in Bangladesh with help of the so-called realist
international relations theory, as well as to look at the power relations, security threats and interests in
concern. This analysis therefore reveals the correlation between domestic political fighting and regional
power politics and or economic factors as useful features in the understanding of modern political conflicts.
In this context, as the situation advances, thus, it is simple to suppose that the realist rationality estimations
will also remain as one of the most pivotal for numerous actors – from the internal initiators to the global
players. The result is what realism expects, the ruling Awami League is unwilling to let go of power, the
opposition wants systemic change, and regional and world powers as cautious as one can expect. The
challenge for Bangladesh in the future will be to strike a balance so as to increase stability in the region
which increases the security of all the countries involved while at the same time continuing the progress in
terms of economy that has therefore been made. To achieve this, the government is going to need to put in a
great deal of work of diplomatic nature both nationally and internationally and be willing to compromise –
two aspects that have been sorely missing from the nation’s politics up until this point.

Finally, as prudent to consider the realist approach, the solution has to embrace the power struggle not only
within Bangladesh but also in the South Asian region. Whether this can be done peacefully via negotiations
and bargaining; or whether it will be done through confrontation leading to an escalation of power and
authority, is yet to unravel. Much would happen in the ensuing months to decide the course of the
Bangladeshi politics and the place it would carve out for itself in the South Asian power dynamics.
Depending on how this crisis unfolds, we will see changes in the nature of both the political and the
economic process in the country, as well as consequences that will affect both the stability of the entire
region and the military-political strategic interests of the powers that be.
As the realist perspective would expect it, the solution is probably going to be dictated not by political
philosophy or democratic norms but by the hard realities of power, protection and self-interest that define
political actions in an unpredictable global environment. The experience of Bangladesh, therefore, provides
a useful backdrop to stress the continued applicability of realist theory as a tool of analysis of political
conflicts in the contemporary global world.

References
1. https://globalnews.ca/news/10683707/bangladesh-political-crisis/
2. https://theconversation.com/bangladeshs-protests-explained-what-led-to-pms-ouster-and-the-
challenges-that-lie-ahead-236190
3. https://www.britannica.com/topic/realism-political-and-social-science
4. Mearsheimer, J. J. (2001). The Tragedy of Great Power Politics. New York: W.W. Norton &
Company.
5.

https://google.com/url?sa=D&q=https%3A%2F%2Fptop.only.wip.la%3A443%2Fhttps%2Fwww.idea.int%2Fgsod%2F2023%2Fchapters%2
Fasia-pacific%2Fcase%2Fbangladesh